2025 年 4 月 30 日 公司研究 24 年营收稳健增长，25Q1 业绩承压 ——赛科希德（688338.SH）2024 年年度及 2025 年第一季度报告点评 要点 事件：公司发布 2024 年年度报告及 2025 年第一季度报告。2024 年公司实现营 业收入 3.06 亿元，同比增长 11.03%；实现归母净利润 1.13 亿元，同比下降 3.35%；扣非归母净利润 1.10 亿元，同比下降 3.97%。2025 年第一季度实现营 业收入 6863.93 万元，同比下降 9.47%；归属于上市公司股东的净利润 2313.29 万元，同比下降 23.98%；扣非归母净利润 2221.13 万元，同比下降 26.61%。 点评： 24 年营收稳健增长，25Q1 业绩承压：2024 年公司营收保持稳健增长，主要得 益于凝血产品装机量和用户数量的持续提升。随着医疗终端对血栓与止血检测需 求的增加，公司仪器、试剂及耗材销售同步增长。2024 年归母净利润同比微降 3.35%，主要受新生产基地投入使用带来的折旧摊销、运营维护及搬迁费用增加 等因素影响。2025 年第一季度实现营业收入 6863.93 万元，同 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for both A-shares and H-shares of China Communications Construction Company (CCCC) [7][5] Core Views - The company has shown significant effects from its engineering business transformation, with a focus on increasing dividends to enhance shareholder returns [5][4] - Despite a slight decline in gross margin, the company has experienced rapid growth in overseas revenue, indicating a positive trend in international contracts [2][3] - The company has effectively controlled costs while planning to increase dividends, with a proposed cash dividend of 4.911 billion yuan for 2024, representing a payout ratio of 21% [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, CCCC achieved operating revenue of 771.9 billion yuan, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 23.4 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year change of +1.7% and -1.8% respectively [1] - For Q1 2025, the company reported operating revenue of 154.6 billion yuan, with a net profit of 5.5 billion yuan, showing a decline of -12.6% and -11.0% year-on-year [1] Revenue Breakdown - The company's gross margin decreased slightly to 12.3% in 2024, with net margin at 3.9%, down by 0.31 and 0.05 percentage points year-on-year [2] - Revenue from domestic and overseas operations in 2024 was 636.7 billion yuan and 135.3 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year changes of -0.9% and +16.4% [2] Contracting and Business Growth - CCCC signed new contracts worth 1.8812 trillion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 7.3%, with significant growth in water conservancy and energy engineering contracts [3] - The company’s overseas new contracts grew by 12.5% in 2024, indicating a strong international presence [3] Cost Management and Dividend Policy - The company has managed its expenses effectively, with sales, management, and R&D expense ratios showing minor fluctuations [4] - CCCC plans to maintain a cash dividend payout ratio of no less than 20% for the years 2025-2027, ensuring consistent returns to shareholders [4] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been adjusted downwards to 24.3 billion yuan and 26.1 billion yuan respectively, reflecting a decrease of 9.7% and 9.1% [5] - The report anticipates steady growth in new contracts and positive outcomes from the engineering business transformation [5]

2025 年 4 月 30 日 公司研究 经营略有承压，盈利能力稳定 ——山东药玻（600529.SH）2024 年年报及 2025 年一季报点评 要点 事件：山东药玻发布 2024 年年报及 2025 年一季报，24 年实现营收/归母净利/ 扣非归母净利 51.3/9.4/9.0 亿元，同比+2.87%/+21.6%/+21.9%，经营性净现金 流11.7亿元，同比+11.2%。25Q1实现营收/归母净利/扣非归母净利12.4/2.2/2.1 亿元，同比-2.0%/+1.3%/+1.8%。经营性净现金流 0.9 亿元，同比-69.4%。公 司拟每股派发 0.32 元（含税），对应公告日（4 月 24 日）股息率 1.4%。 模制瓶稳健增长，海外增速亮眼：24 年公司模制瓶/棕色瓶/丁基胶塞/管制瓶实 现营收 23.5/11.6/2.9/2.1 亿元，同比+3.9%/+3.5%/+11.9%/+5.0%；对应销量 为 37.5 万吨/28.6 万吨/62.2 亿支/16.2 亿支，同比-0.4%/+4.8%/+15.4%/-1.9%。 需求承压、竞争加剧下模制瓶收入增速放缓。分地区看，国内/国外实现营收 35 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected investment return exceeding the market benchmark by more than 15% over the next 6-12 months [6]. Core Views - The company demonstrated resilience in its operations, with expectations for humanoid robots to be integrated into tourism and cultural scenarios, contributing to new growth drivers [4]. - The company reported a revenue of 1.84 billion in 2024, a decrease of 4.9% year-on-year, attributed to project delivery delays and the nurturing phase of new businesses [2][4]. - The gross margin improved significantly to 33.4% in 2024, the highest level since 2016, despite an increase in expenses and impairment losses affecting profitability [3][11]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 1.84 billion, net profit attributable to shareholders of 60 million, and a net profit excluding non-recurring items of 50 million, reflecting year-on-year declines of 4.9%, 36.0%, and 38.7% respectively [1]. - For Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 290 million, net profit of 30 million, and net profit excluding non-recurring items of 30 million, with year-on-year changes of +0.2%, -3.4%, and -3.9% respectively [1]. Product and Regional Performance - In 2024, revenue from various segments included 1.07 billion from cultural and sports tourism equipment (down 22.7%), 270 million from digital art technology (up 18.1%), 210 million from rail transit equipment (up 100.0%), and 260 million from cultural and sports tourism operation services (up 44.3%) [2]. - Domestic revenue decreased by 18.5% to 1.56 billion, while overseas revenue surged by 1248.4% to 270 million, primarily due to the recognition of income from the Sochi Concert Hall project in Russia [2]. Profitability and Cost Structure - The gross margin for 2024 was 33.4%, an increase of 8.3 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 3.4%, a decrease of 1.6 percentage points [3][11]. - The selling, general, and administrative expenses ratio increased to 23.5%, with specific rates for selling, management, financial, and R&D expenses being 7.2%, 13.4%, -2.8%, and 5.7% respectively [3]. Future Outlook and Valuation - The company expects an improvement in order volume due to a recovery in industry conditions following increased local government support for debt [4]. - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders is 309 million for 2025, 371 million for 2026, and 460 million for 2027, reflecting significant growth rates [4][5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Luzhou Laojiao [6] Core Views - Luzhou Laojiao's total revenue for 2024 is projected at 31.196 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.19%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 13.473 billion yuan, reflecting a 1.71% increase [1] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 45.92 yuan per 10 shares for 2024, with a total cash dividend amounting to 8.758 billion yuan, corresponding to a dividend payout ratio of approximately 65% [1] - The company aims for a cash dividend payout ratio of no less than 65% in 2024, 70% in 2025, and 75% in 2026, with a minimum annual cash dividend of 8.5 billion yuan [1] Revenue and Growth - In 2024, the revenue growth rate has slowed down, with mid-to-high-end liquor and other liquor revenues at 27.585 billion yuan and 3.467 billion yuan respectively, showing year-on-year increases of 2.77% and 7.15% [2] - For Q1 2025, total revenue is 9.352 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.78%, aligning with market expectations [2] Profitability and Margins - The gross margin for 2024 and Q1 2025 is 87.54% and 86.51% respectively, with a slight decline compared to the previous year [3] - The net profit margin for 2024 is 43.19%, reflecting a decrease of 0.62 percentage points year-on-year [3] Financial Forecasts and Valuation - The net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been adjusted downwards to 13.857 billion yuan and 14.989 billion yuan, representing a 15% and 18% reduction from previous estimates [4] - The estimated earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected at 9.41 yuan, 10.18 yuan, and 11.00 yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 13, 12, and 11 [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Guizhou Moutai [4][6] Core Views - Guizhou Moutai's Q1 2025 performance exceeded market expectations, with total revenue of 51.443 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.67%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 26.847 billion yuan, up 11.56% year-on-year [1][4] - The company demonstrated strong brand resilience, achieving double-digit revenue growth despite overall weak demand [2] - The company's 2025 operational target is a revenue growth of approximately 9%, which is considered realistic and achievable [4] Revenue and Profit Analysis - In Q1 2025, revenue from Moutai liquor and series liquor reached 43.557 billion yuan and 7.022 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 9.7% and 18.3% [2] - Direct sales and wholesale channels contributed 23.220 billion yuan and 27.360 billion yuan in revenue, reflecting year-on-year increases of 20.19% and 3.93% [2] - The company's gross profit margin for Q1 2025 was 91.97%, with a slight year-on-year decline of 0.64 percentage points, while the net profit margin increased by 0.42 percentage points to 52.19% [3] Cash Flow and Financial Health - Sales cash receipts in Q1 2025 amounted to 56.144 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.37%, indicating strong cash flow performance [3] - The company reported a net operating cash flow of 8.809 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 4.1% year-on-year [3] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is 94.489 billion yuan, 103.046 billion yuan, and 111.879 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 75.22 yuan, 82.03 yuan, and 89.06 yuan [4][5] - The current stock price corresponds to P/E ratios of 21, 19, and 17 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [4][5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company achieved a significant year-on-year increase in net profit of 92.7% in Q1 2025, reaching 11.31 billion yuan [5][7] - The combined ratio (COR) improved by 3.4 percentage points to 94.5%, outperforming major listed peers [7] - The company holds a 35% market share in the property insurance sector, maintaining its industry-leading position [8] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported operating revenue of 128.56 billion yuan, up 8.0% year-on-year, and insurance service revenue of 120.74 billion yuan, up 6.1% year-on-year [5] - The company’s investment income increased significantly by 56.4% to 7.46 billion yuan, benefiting from a recovering capital market [7] Business Segmentation - The insurance service revenue from non-auto insurance grew by 11.7% to 46.41 billion yuan, while auto insurance service revenue increased by 2.8% to 74.33 billion yuan [6] - The company’s premium income for auto insurance was 71.70 billion yuan, up 3.5%, and for non-auto insurance, it was 108.73 billion yuan, up 3.8% [6] Cost Management - The company achieved an underwriting profit of 6.65 billion yuan, a substantial increase of 183.0% year-on-year, due to improved cost management and reduced disaster losses [7] - The comprehensive cost ratio (COR) is expected to maintain a trend of year-on-year improvement, driven by ongoing business structure optimization and enhanced risk management [8] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report forecasts net profits of 37.4 billion yuan, 43.3 billion yuan, and 50.4 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [10] - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 1.02 for 2025, indicating it is still at a historically low level [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for future returns exceeding the market benchmark by more than 15% over the next 6-12 months [4]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a robust performance in 2024, with total revenue projected to increase by 35.0% year-on-year to 26.6 billion yuan and net profit expected to rise by 39.5% to 3.0 billion yuan [1][4]. - Short-term profitability may fluctuate due to a decline in sales from major clients and increased costs associated with new factories and business development, but the long-term growth potential in smart vehicles and robotics remains strong [2][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company's gross margin is expected to decrease by 2.1 percentage points to 20.8%, while the selling, general, and administrative (SG&A) expense ratio is projected to decline by 1.1 percentage points to 8.0% [2]. - For Q1 2025, revenue is anticipated to show a slight year-on-year increase of 1.4% but a significant quarter-on-quarter decline of 20.4%, amounting to 5.7 billion yuan in net profit, which reflects a year-on-year decrease of 12.4% [1][2]. Business Segments - The automotive electronics segment is experiencing high growth, with revenue expected to increase by 906% to 1.8 billion yuan. Other segments, including interior functional parts and chassis systems, are also showing steady growth [2]. - The robotics segment is beginning to contribute positively to profits, with the electric drive system achieving a gross margin of 50.9% in 2024 [2][3]. Global Expansion and Strategic Positioning - The company is accelerating its global footprint, with plans to add a third closed air suspension production line in 2025 and new factories in Mexico and Thailand set to commence operations in 2024 and 2026, respectively [3]. - The dual-platform strategy in smart vehicles and robotics is expected to enhance the company's competitive edge, with significant client partnerships established with major automotive brands [3]. Profitability and Valuation Metrics - The report projects a decline in net profit margin to 10.0% in 2025, with a gradual recovery expected in subsequent years [10]. - Key valuation metrics include a projected P/E ratio of 27 for 2025 and a P/B ratio of 4.1, indicating a favorable valuation relative to expected earnings growth [11].

2025 年 4 月 30 日 锚定多品牌全渠道全品类战略，一季度受计提公允价值损失影响利润承压 ——索菲亚（002572.SZ）2024 年年报及 2025 年一季报点评 买入（维持） 公司研究 -21% -8% 4% 17% 30% 04/24 07/24 10/24 01/25 索菲亚 沪深300 收益表现 作者 市场数据 | 总股本(亿股) | 9.63 | | --- | --- | | 总市值(亿元)： | 148.50 | | 一年最低/最高(元)： | 12.36/20.70 | | 近 3 月换手率： | 73.09% | 分析师：姜浩 执业证书编号：S0930522010001 021-52523680 jianghao@ebscn.com 联系人：吴子倩 021-52523872 wuziqian@ebscn.com 股价相对走势 | % | 1M | 3M | 1Y | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 相对 | -2.07 | -1.33 | -10.69 | | 绝对 | -4.95 | -1.85 | -5.95 | | 资料来源：Wind | | | | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6]. Core Viewpoints - The company achieved a revenue of 13.65 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 17.61%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 898 million yuan, up 25.39% year-on-year. In Q1 2025, revenue reached 3.65 billion yuan, a significant increase of 66.14% year-on-year, with a net profit of 93.52 million yuan, up 23.99% year-on-year [1][3]. - The mining service segment showed strong growth with a revenue of 10.81 billion yuan in 2024, up 21.01% year-on-year, and a gross margin of 17.72%, an increase of 0.9 percentage points. The company has a robust order backlog exceeding 30 billion yuan, with significant revenue growth in Xinjiang and Tibet, at 96.09% and 32.41% respectively [1][2]. - The civil explosives segment reported revenue of 2.31 billion yuan in 2024, a slight increase of 1.18% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 36.5%. The company is focusing on cost control and industry consolidation, acquiring stakes in two companies to increase explosive production capacity [2]. - The defense equipment segment generated revenue of 350 million yuan in 2024, a substantial increase of 47.74% year-on-year, driven by increased deliveries of traditional military products and the consolidation of Jiangsu Hongguang [3]. Summary by Sections Mining Services - Revenue for the mining service segment was 10.81 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 21.01% and a gross margin of 17.72% [1][2]. - The company has over 30 billion yuan in orders, with significant growth in Xinjiang and Tibet [1][2]. Civil Explosives - The civil explosives segment achieved revenue of 2.31 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 1.18% and a gross margin of 36.5% [2]. - The company is implementing a low-cost strategy and has made acquisitions to enhance production capacity [2]. Defense Equipment - The defense equipment segment reported revenue of 350 million yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 47.74% [3]. - The company has increased its stake in Guangdong Provincial Military Industry Group, enhancing its resource advantages in the military industry [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report raises the profit forecast for 2025 and 2026 by 13% and 21% respectively, predicting net profits of 1.11 billion yuan and 1.31 billion yuan [3]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.46 yuan, 1.73 yuan, and 2.05 yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 21x, 18x, and 15x [3].