周观点0525：海风户储边际改善， 固态电池一马当先 长江证券研究所电力设备与新能源研究小组 2025-05-25 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 证券研究报告 • 证券研究报告 • 评级 看好 维持 分析师及联系人 | 分析师 邬博华 | 分析师 曹海花 | 分析师 司鸿历 | 分析师 叶之楠 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SAC执业证书编号：S0490514040001 | SAC执业证书编号：S0490522030001 | SAC执业证书编号：S0490520080002 | SAC执业证书编号：S0490520090003 | | SFC执业证书编号：BQK482 | | SFC执业证书编号：BUD284 | | | 分析师 袁澎 | 分析师 王耀 | 分析师 任佳惠 | 分析师 周圣钧 | | SAC执业证书编号：S0490524010001 | SAC执业证书编号：S0490524120006 | SAC执业证书编号：S0490524070005 | SAC执业证书编号：S0490524120003 | %% %% %% %% re ...

激浊扬清，周观军工 第120期： 可控核聚变硬科技或加速落地 长江证券研究所国防军工研究小组 2025-05-26 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 证券研究报告 • 证券研究报告 • 评级 看好 维持 分析师及联系人 分析师 王贺嘉 分析师 王清 分析师 杨继虎 分析师 张晨晨 SAC执业证书编号：S0490520110004 SAC执业证书编号：S0490524050001 SAC执业证书编号：S0490525040001 SAC执业证书编号：S0490524080007 SFC执业证书编号：BUX462 联系人 张飞 联系人 李麟君 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 2 目 录 02 航天电器：深耕航天受益景气反转， 产能已落地激励推动经营稳步提升 03 十五五规划编制稳步细化内部需求， 高端装备良好战绩或打开外部空间 04 预计九天无人机在六月底完成首飞， 先进军用无人机刺激内外列装需求 05 十四五收官务期必成：甄选产品力 提升、渗透率提升、客单价提升标的 01 可控核聚变关注度提升获超额收益， 国内外项目持续推进工程应用可期 %% res ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [8] Core Views - The company reported Q1 2025 revenue of 7.23 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.9%, but a net profit attributable to shareholders of 310 million yuan, down 18.6% year-on-year [2][5] - The decline in product prices has put pressure on the company's performance, with significant decreases in the sales prices of key products such as glyphosate and organic silicon [11] - The company is expected to benefit from a recovery in product prices and the successful launch of new projects, which will enhance its profitability [11] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 10 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 1.1 billion yuan, which represents a 66.7% increase year-on-year [11] Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company's gross margin was 12.9%, down 1.5 percentage points year-on-year, and the net margin was 4.6%, down 0.9 percentage points year-on-year [11] - The company has a production capacity of 230,000 tons per year for glyphosate and 600,000 tons per year for organic silicon, with both products currently at historical low price levels [11] - The company expects net profits attributable to shareholders to be 1.93 billion yuan, 2.53 billion yuan, and 2.94 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [11]

丨证券研究报告丨 [Table_Author] 邬博华 于海宁 曹海花 司鸿历 温筱婷 SAC：S0490514040001 SAC：S0490517110002 SAC：S0490522030001 SAC：S0490520080002 SAC：S0490524100002 SFC：BQK482 SFC：BUX641 SFC：BUD284 联合研究丨公司点评丨科华数据（002335.SZ） [Table_Title] 数据中心弹性初步体现，新能源亏损有望收 窄 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 公司发布 2024 年报及 2025 年一季报，2024 年收入 77.57 亿元，同比-4.71%，实现归母净利 润 3.15 亿元，同比-37.90%，实现扣非净利润 2.85 亿元，同比-38.55%。拆分至单季度，2024 年四季度收入 23.64 亿元，实现归母净利润 0.77 亿元，实现扣非净利润 0.65 亿元；2025 年一 季度收入 12.16 亿元，同比+2.73%，实现归母净利润 0.69 亿元，同比-6.26%，实现扣非净利 润 0.61 亿元，同比+2.06%。 分析师及联系人 请阅 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [7] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 5.385 billion yuan for 2024, an increase of 2.72% year-on-year. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 12.60% to 407 million yuan, and the net profit after deducting non-recurring items fell by 48.49% to 175 million yuan. The operating cash flow net amount was 753 million yuan, a slight decrease of 0.22% [2][4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the second half of 2024, the company saw a significant improvement in its operating performance, with revenue increasing by 24.29% compared to the first half. The net profit attributable to shareholders surged by 190.4%, and operating cash flow net amount rose by 61.16%. In Q4 2024, revenue grew by 23.76% year-on-year and 30.67% quarter-on-quarter, while net profit increased by 282.76% year-on-year and 436.76% quarter-on-quarter [10] Business Segments - The smart software business generated revenue of 1.423 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.49%. The smart automotive business achieved revenue of 2.416 billion yuan, up 3.42% year-on-year. The smart IoT business reported revenue of 1.545 billion yuan, a growth of 3.73% year-on-year, indicating a rebound from the previous year's decline [10] Profitability and Costs - The company's gross margin decreased to 34.29%, down 2.66 percentage points year-on-year. The gross margins for the smart software, smart automotive, and smart IoT businesses were 44.30%, 34.67%, and 18.27%, respectively. The increase in costs and expenses, particularly in R&D, impacted short-term profits [10] Strategic Positioning - The company is focused on its "Operating System + Edge Intelligence" strategy, aiming to leverage its ecosystem advantages and partnerships with leading chip manufacturers and cloud service providers. The company has made significant investments in edge intelligence areas such as industrial robots and AI applications, which are expected to drive future growth [10] Future Outlook - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 482 million yuan, 561 million yuan, and 804 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 52, 45, and 31 times [10]

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨行业周报丨投资银行业与经纪业 [Table_Title] 持续增配绩优权重和优质红马 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 展望后续，政策端维持平稳，中长期维度仍建议增配优质寿险、财险以及细分领域红马，短期增配权益敏 感性较高的个股。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 吴一凡 谢宇尘 SAC：S0490519080007 SAC：S0490521020001 SFC：BUV596 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 投资银行业与经纪业 cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title 持续增配绩优权重和优质红马 2] [Table_Summary2] 核心观点： 近期非银上市公司业绩披露完毕，趋势上仍延续较高增长，叠加资本市场政策的陆续出台，非 银板块配置价值持续提升。展望后续，业绩基数有所上移，政策端维持平稳，建议重点关注板 块绩优权重个股，以及优质的高股息个股。个股层面，综合业绩弹性及估值分位，推荐新华保 险、中国人寿、香港交易所、中信证券、东方财富、同花顺、九方智投控股，并购主题推荐中 国银河，稳健红 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the logistics industry [8] Core Insights - The domestic low-speed unmanned logistics vehicle market is entering a year of explosive growth, with leading logistics technology companies expected to see a multiple increase in order volume by 2025 [1][4] - Key factors driving the commercialization of unmanned logistics vehicles include significant cost reductions in core components and improved algorithm efficiency, making unmanned vehicles economically advantageous compared to human labor [4][24] - The loosening of road rights policies is accelerating the commercialization of unmanned vehicles, expanding their application from closed environments to open urban distribution scenarios [4][36] - The total sales volume of replaceable commercial vehicles is estimated at 2.85 million units, with a potential stock of 12 million units, indicating a substantial market opportunity [4][43] - By 2025, the total delivery volume of leading unmanned logistics vehicle companies may reach tens of thousands, with a market size potentially exceeding 100 billion yuan if the penetration rate in the last-mile delivery market exceeds 17% [4][47] Summary by Sections Cost Advantages and Policy Changes - The cost of unmanned logistics vehicles has significantly decreased, with the price of a single vehicle dropping from approximately 200,000 yuan in 2019 to 50,000 yuan in 2024, while monthly operational costs are around 3,167 yuan, significantly lower than the average monthly income of human drivers [24][25] - Road rights policies have been progressively relaxed, allowing unmanned vehicles to operate on public roads, with over 100 cities granting operational rights as of May 2025 [31][35] Application Areas - L4 level autonomous driving technology is being applied in various sectors, including urban distribution, traditional logistics, community group buying, and retail, showcasing its versatility and potential for efficiency improvements [36][41] Market Potential - The potential market for unmanned logistics vehicles is substantial, with estimates suggesting that if penetration rates reach 5%, 10%, 30%, or 50%, the corresponding market sizes could be 94 billion, 188 billion, 565 billion, and 941 billion yuan respectively [47] - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on leading companies like SF Express and other direct delivery companies, as well as the core components of unmanned logistics vehicles from an overseas perspective [4][43]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6] Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 13.3 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 23.2%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 490 million yuan, down 6.3% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 450 million yuan, a decline of 4.1% year-on-year [2][4] - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 3.41 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 18.5% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 4.7%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 130 million yuan, an increase of 10.0% year-on-year but a decrease of 1.4% quarter-on-quarter [2][4] - For Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 2.98 billion yuan, down 9.8% year-on-year and 12.8% quarter-on-quarter. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 120 million yuan, an increase of 4.8% year-on-year but a decrease of 7.8% quarter-on-quarter [2][4] Summary by Sections Sales Performance - The company achieved a sales volume of 98,600 tons for positive materials in 2024, maintaining a growth trend. The sales of ternary materials (including lithium iron phosphate and others) reached 52,400 tons, a year-on-year increase of 40%, driven by the growth of high-end pure electric vehicles. The sales of lithium cobalt oxide were 46,200 tons, up 33.5% year-on-year, mainly benefiting from subsidy policies and demand from AI mobile applications [9] - In Q1 2025, the sales volume of positive materials was 24,800 tons, with lithium cobalt oxide sales at 12,300 tons, a year-on-year increase of 46.55%. Ternary positive sales were 10,900 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 31.53% due to a high base effect from the previous year [9] Profitability - The estimated profit per ton for the company in 2024 faced pressure due to a decline in processing fees for ternary positives and the impact of raw material price drops. The iron lithium business remained in a loss state, while hydrogen materials maintained stability with sales of hydrogen storage alloys at 3,900 tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.73% [9] - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 740 million yuan in 2025, corresponding to a PE ratio of 28 times, and continues to be recommended [9]

丨证券研究报告丨 联合研究丨公司点评丨赛维时代（301381.SZ） [Table_Title] 赛维时代 2024 年报&2025Q1 点评：硬件去库 对利润端阶段拖累，营运指标逐季度企稳向好 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 2024 年公司实现营业收入 102.75 亿元，同比增加 56.55%，实现归母净利润 2.14 亿元，同比 减少 36.19%。2024Q4 公司实现营业收入 34.74 亿元，同比增加 58.66%；实现归母净利润 0.19 亿元，同比减少 83.46%。2025 年 Q1，公司实现营业收入 24.58 亿元，同比增加 36.65%； 实现归母净利润 0.47 亿元，同比减少 45.35%。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 李锦 于旭辉 罗祎 秦意昂 SAC：S0490514080004 SAC：S0490518020002 SAC：S0490520080019 SAC：S0490524110002 SFC：BUV258 SFC：BUU942 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 赛维时代（3013 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [5]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 35.392 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 11.98%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.207 billion yuan, up 28.56% year-on-year, while the non-recurring net profit reached 263 million yuan, showing a significant increase of 125.86% [3][10]. - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 10.217 billion yuan, a growth of 3.97% year-on-year, with a net profit of 794 million yuan, up 22.88% year-on-year, and a non-recurring net profit of 205 million yuan, increasing by 213.66% [3][10]. - For Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 9.055 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 20.61%, with a net profit of 101 million yuan, up 45.55% year-on-year, and a non-recurring net profit of 15 million yuan, increasing by 37.59% [3][10]. Summary by Sections Sales and Profitability - The company achieved a total lithium-ion battery sales volume of 19.75 billion ampere-hours in 2024, marking a year-on-year increase of 40.38%, driven by strong market demand [10]. - The overall gross margin for 2024 was 18%, an increase of 2.23 percentage points year-on-year. The gross margin for the power battery system was 15.14%, up 1.33 percentage points, while the gross margin for the energy storage battery system reached 21.75%, an increase of 4.64 percentage points [10]. Cost and Expenses - The total expense ratio for 2024 was 14.76%, a slight increase of 0.09 percentage points year-on-year. The sales expense ratio decreased to 0.86%, down 0.07 percentage points, while the management expense ratio was 5.45%, down 0.05 percentage points [10]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to continue upgrading its product and customer structure in the domestic power market, enhancing its market share and profitability through partnerships with B-class vehicle customers. The expansion of production capacity in overseas markets, including the U.S., Czech Republic, and Morocco, is also anticipated to contribute positively [10].