Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the real estate sector, indicating a cautious outlook on new home sales and market dynamics [2] Core Insights - New home transactions have increased on a month-over-month basis, with Vanke's debt extension making progress [2] - The real estate index fell by 2.2%, ranking 18th among 31 sectors [9] - Significant year-over-year increases in new home and second-hand home transactions were noted, with new home sales up 591% and second-hand home sales up 1076% [23][28] Summary by Sections Industry Basic Data - The real estate sector comprises 107 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 1,227.95 billion and a circulating market value of 1,176.70 billion [2] Sales Performance - In the fifth week, the average daily transaction area for new homes in 20 cities increased by 28% month-over-month, totaling 187 million square meters, with a year-over-year increase of 591% [23][27] - The average daily transaction area for second-hand homes in 11 cities was 30.8 million square meters, showing a slight decrease of 1% month-over-month but a significant year-over-year increase of 1076% [28][31] Policy News - Local policies in Nanjing and Tianjin have been introduced to enhance housing fund utilization and increase loan limits, aiming to stimulate the real estate market [19][21] Company Dynamics - Vanke A has made progress in extending its debt, with 40% of its mid-term notes being repaid, while China Merchants Shekou anticipates a significant decline in net profit for 2025 [22][19] Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on three areas to find alpha in the real estate market: precision in land acquisition for developers, stable income-generating assets like leading shopping centers, and leading real estate agencies that enhance transaction efficiency [35][36]

证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师：许常捷 邮箱：xuchangjie@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525030002 房地产行业周报（2026 年第 5 周） 推荐（维持） 新房成交环比上涨，万科债务展期获新进展 行业研究 房地产 2026 年 02 月 03 日 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：单戈 邮箱：shange@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360522110001 证券分析师：杨航 邮箱：yanghang@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525090001 行业基本数据 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数(只) | 107 | 0.01 | | 总市值(亿元) | 12,279.48 | 0.99 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 11,766.97 | 1.17 | 相对指数表现 | % | 1M | 6M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现 | 1.8% | 5.3% | 9.6% | | 相对表现 | 2.4% | -8.3% | -11.0% | -7% 4% 15% 26% 25/0 ...

银行理财产品： 据普益标准数据，2026 年 1 月 12 日-25 日双周内，银行理财市场新发产品共 计 1260 只，较上一统计周期（2025 年 12 月 29 日至 2026 年 1 月 11 日）的 1101 只环比增长 14.44%，基本恢复至更早一期（2025 年 12 月 15 日至 28 日） 1264 只的活跃水平。这表明在经历年末时点因素扰动后，理财公司的产品发 行节奏已回归常态，市场供给端保持稳定输出能力。当前银行理财市场延续了 固收产品为主导、理财公司为发行主力、中短期限及低门槛产品集中的结构特 征，结构分化态势更加显著。 基金产品： 2026 年 1 月 12 日至 1 月 25 日，公募基金新发市场延续年初以来的回暖态势， 市场呈现"量稳质升、结构剧变"的强势特征。市场总体新发数量、规模、平 均发行规模均较上期（2025 年 12 月 29 日至 2026 年 1 月 11 日）有明显增长， 本期共成立基金 65 只（前值 45 只），合计募集份额 637.48 亿元（前值 203.89 亿元），平均单只基金发行规模 9.81 亿元（前值 4.53 亿元）。权益类基金与 FOF ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended," indicating an expected increase in the industry index exceeding the benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 3-6 months [24]. Core Insights - The insurance industry achieved a total premium income of 61,194 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.4%. The growth rate has slightly decreased compared to the previous month [7][6]. - Life insurance premiums reached 35,557 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 11.4%, while health and accident insurance also showed growth, albeit with a slight decline in month-on-month performance [7][6]. - The total assets of the insurance industry reached 41.3 trillion yuan by the end of 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 15.1% [7][6]. - The report anticipates that the new business for life insurance will see rapid growth due to the dual benefits of high deposit flow and the expansion of bank insurance channels [7][6]. Company Summaries - **China Pacific Insurance (601601.SH)**: Expected EPS for 2025 is 5.68 yuan, with a PE ratio of 7.21 and a PB ratio of 1.41. The stock is rated as "Recommended" [3]. - **China Life Insurance (601628.SH)**: Expected EPS for 2025 is 6.34 yuan, with a PE ratio of 11.79 and a PB ratio of 2.18. The stock is rated as "Recommended" [3]. - **Ping An Insurance (601318.SH)**: Expected EPS for 2025 is 8.02 yuan, with a PE ratio of 8.24 and a PB ratio of 1.14. The stock is rated as "Strongly Recommended" [3]. - **China Property & Casualty Insurance (02328.HK)**: Expected EPS for 2025 is 2.07 yuan, with a PE ratio of 6.81 and a PB ratio of 1.09. The stock is rated as "Recommended" [3].

债券研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券日报】 转债市场日度跟踪 20260202 市场概况：2 日多数行业回调，估值环比压缩 指数表现：中证转债指数环比下降 2.39%、上证综指环比下降 2.48%、深证成 指环比下降 2.69%、创业板指环比下降 2.46%、上证 50 指数环比下降 2.07%、 中证 1000 指数环比下降 3.39%。 市场风格：大盘价值相对占优。大盘成长环比下降 2.19%、大盘价值环比下降 1.32%、中盘成长环比下降 3.94%、中盘价值环比下降 4.53%、小盘成长环比 下降 3.59%、小盘价值环比下降 4.17%。 资金表现：转债市场成交情绪减弱。可转债市场成交额为 761.60 亿元，环比 减少 7.15%；万得全 A 总成交额为 26066.38 亿元，环比减少 8.94%；沪深两 市主力净流出 539.77 亿元，十年国债收益率环比上升 0.88bp 至 1.82%。 转债价格：转债中枢下降，高价券占比下降。转债整体收盘价加权平均值为 137.99 元，环比昨日下降 2.14%。其中偏股型转债的收盘价为 218.00 元，环比 上升 5.16%；偏债型转债的收盘价为 ...

债券研究 2）地产债：聚焦 1-2 年期央国企博弈估值修复。万科展期议案获通过，信用 预期底部已初步确立，优质主体估值修复动能较强。可关注估值受万科事件冲 击、隐含评级 AA+及以上的央国企，如保利发展、华润置地、陆家嘴集团等。 1）5y 以内品种关注部分结构性机会。3y 以内仍可适当下沉挖掘收益，近期地 产债市场悲观情绪有望逐渐好转，可关注央国企估值修复。3.5y-4y 普信债品 种凸性较高，AA+中票 3 个月持有期收益率高于 5y 品种。此外，1 月信用债 ETF 指数成分券承受一定抛压，近期超额利差有边际修复态势，可适当参与。 2）5y 以上长久期信用债当前处于较好的布局窗口；但交易需及时止盈。从利 差水平看，7-10yAA+中票利差相比去年 9 月底调整高点低约 10BP，短期走阔 压力或有限，相比去年 7 月利差低点高约 7-15BP，有一定的博收益空间。从 风险角度看，2 月债市定价影响因素中性偏利好，权益风偏对债市的冲击风险 较 1 月或有所减弱，且考虑 3 月保险配置进一步加码，3 月底到 4 月初理财为 代表的资管户配置需求增强，或带来未来的配置预期驱动当下行情。但需注意 负债稳定性偏弱的 ...

债券研究 【债券月报】 关注长信用品种的博弈机会 ——2 月信用债策略月报 3）长久期信用债品种的选择可综合多角度考虑。一是优选成交活跃度高的个 券及主体，尤其是博弈利差压缩行情对于个券的流动性要求较高；二是关注曲 线凸点，当前 5.5-6y、7.5-8yAAA 与 AA+，以及 8.5-9yAA+中票骑乘收益较 高；三是科创债 ETF 成分券，近期超额利差有所走阔，性价比有所回升。 板块策略： 1）城投债：当前 3y 以内低等级品种仍有相对较高票息价值，可积极博弈，中 长久期品种可适当关注强区域优质主体配置机会。此外关注城投产业子公司首 发债券投资机会。 2）地产债：聚焦 1-2 年期央国企博弈估值修复。万科展期议案获通过，信用 预期底部已初步确立，优质主体估值修复动能较强。可关注估值受万科事件冲 击、隐含评级 AA+及以上的央国企，如保利发展、华润置地、陆家嘴集团等。 2）5y 以内品种信用利差有望进一步压缩或维持低位波动，关注信用债配置力 量向长久期信用债的涌入情况。2026 年理财、基金信用债配置力量或主要集 中在 5y 以内中短端品种，但博收益诉求下仍可能在部分窗口基于交易目的对 长久期信用债抢筹。 ...

❖ 把握配置区间，问增长要收益，重视科创+顺周期年度配置价值。 A 股投融资定位逆转后，高夏普特征愈发明显，体现在时间分布上涨多跌少， 慢牛趋势下更容易以快速回撤完成风险定价。站在年度视角，我们建议把握当 下配置区间，春节后即 3 月初全国两会，经济增长目标及"十五五"规划纲的 发布，有望成为风险偏好再度改善的催化剂。从风格看，PPI 转正预期带动 EPS 接棒流动性，问增长要收益，年度视角看科创+顺周期配置价值仍在，科创从 算力到应用扩散，算力硬件、储能、AI 应用、智能驾驶。顺周期五朵金花紧供 给优势明显，关注有色、化工、机械、钢铁、建材。 ❖ 风险提示： 证 券 研 究 报 告 【策略快评】 调整或已到位，把握配置区间 ❖ 因外部突发事件产生的风险偏好冲击，或已到位。 本轮回撤主因美联储主席任命，缩表倾向带动美元反弹，金银暴跌，对新兴市 场产生明显的风险偏好抑制，亚太市场普遍跌幅较大。躁动期间有色为代表的 顺周期出现较大获利了结。经过快速回撤，交投情绪已回落至躁动行情启动位 置，2/2 跌停公司 130 家，超去年 11/21 的 107 家，创近半年新低；两融连续 两天净流出 295 亿，创半年流出新 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expectation of outperforming the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [1][22]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of 922 million yuan in 2025, representing a year-over-year growth of 41.44%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 204 million yuan, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 91.40% [1][3]. - The company is focusing on the AI transformation of its edge products, leading to significant improvements in both profitability and quality. The net profit margin is anticipated to reach 22.13%, an increase of 5.78 percentage points year-over-year [1][7]. - The product matrix is expanding with dual drivers of edge AI and wireless audio, resulting in substantial sales growth in various markets, including wireless microphones and Bluetooth speakers [1][7]. - The company is investing heavily in R&D to enhance its high-end product iterations and is advancing its in-memory computing technology to empower new smart wearable products [1][7]. - The target price for the company is set at 85.96 yuan, based on a 52x price-to-earnings ratio for 2026, reflecting a strong market position and growth potential [3][7]. Financial Summary - For 2025, the company forecasts total revenue of 922 million yuan, with a net profit of 204 million yuan and a diluted earnings per share of 1.17 yuan [3][8]. - The projected growth rates for total revenue and net profit for 2025 are 41.5% and 91.7%, respectively, with further growth expected in subsequent years [3][8]. - The company’s total market capitalization is approximately 9.17 billion yuan, with a current share price of 52.35 yuan [4][3].

Economic Structure Insights - The "golden crossover" of new and old economies indicates that by 2025, the new economy's GDP share will rise to 20%, surpassing the old economy's 19.7%[11] - By 2026, residents' financial assets are expected to exceed the total value of urban residential properties for the first time, indicating a shift in wealth structure[12] Spending Intentions - Combined spending intentions of residents, government, and overseas sectors are projected to stabilize in 2024 and show a first increase in 2025, driven by strong export performance and increased fiscal counter-cyclical adjustments[13] Market Dynamics - Recent market volatility is attributed to sharp fluctuations in gold and silver prices, with A-share indices experiencing a significant drop of 0.96% on January 30, 2026, primarily due to external factors[15] - The probability of a significant market pullback post-volatility is considered low, as domestic economic recovery is ongoing and supportive policies remain in place[16] Debt Market Outlook - The bond market is experiencing a correction of pessimistic expectations, with a notable recovery in the long-end segment, driven by improved risk appetite and stable funding conditions[20] - The issuance pace of local government bonds is slower than expected, alleviating supply pressure in the bond market[21] Federal Reserve Policy - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate at 3.5%-3.75% in January 2026, signaling a shift to a "wait-and-see" approach regarding future rate cuts[25] - The Fed's recent statements reflect a more positive outlook on economic growth, with a focus on normalizing monetary policy rather than further rate cuts in the near term[26]