Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for Agricultural Bank of China (601288) [1][4]. Core Views - The bank's asset quality has improved, with a notable growth in retail loans. The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio decreased to 1.3%, and the provision coverage ratio remains robust at 300% [1][8]. - The bank achieved a total operating income of 710.56 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.26%. The net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 4.73% to 282.08 billion yuan [1][3]. - The report highlights a steady growth in loans, particularly in retail lending, with personal consumption loans growing by 28.3% and personal business loans by 35% year-on-year [8]. Financial Performance Summary - **2024 Financial Metrics**: - Total operating income: 710,555 million yuan - Year-on-year growth: 2.26% - Net profit attributable to shareholders: 282,083 million yuan - Year-on-year growth: 4.73% [3][9] - **Future Projections**: - Revenue growth forecast for 2025-2027 adjusted to 1.8%, 3.7%, and 5.7% respectively - Net profit growth forecast for the same period adjusted to 2.3%, 4.1%, and 5.3% respectively [8][9]. Asset Quality and Loan Structure - The NPL ratio improved, with a decrease of 2 basis points to 1.3%, and the NPL generation rate fell to 0.23% [8][11]. - Retail loans showed strong growth, with a year-on-year increase of 9.4% in Q4, while corporate loans grew by 11% [8][9]. - The bank's focus on county-level finance continues to yield positive results, with county loans growing by 12.3% year-on-year [8]. Valuation and Target Price - The current valuation is at 0.65 times the projected price-to-book (PB) ratio for 2025, with a target PB of 0.75, leading to a target price of 5.86 yuan per share [8][4]. - The report suggests that the bank is undervalued compared to its historical average PB of 0.58 [8].

债券研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【债券深度报告】 债市回归基本面主线 ——债券月度策略思考 一、基本面：4 月进入数据验证的关键窗口 4 月基本面进入数据观察的关键窗口。2019 年 4 月和 2023 年 4 月都出现了由 于基本面强验证或弱验证带来的市场变盘。后续（1）关注 4 月中上旬陆续公 布的 3 月经济、出口数据和一季度 GDP。3 月数据供强需弱、量价分化特征 或延续，一季度 GDP 或有望实现 5%以上。下周将公布的 PMI 数据有望进一 步冲高（EPMI 环比偏强、3 月季节性共振）。（2）关注 4 月高频与 4 月经济 数据的边际变化，或引发市场对经济韧性和未来弹性预期的修正。包括：出口 （4 月初对等关税落地影响）、房地产（4 月销售环比下滑斜率是否超预期）、 消费（以旧换新对汽车边际拉动或趋弱、4 月社零环比是否超季节性回落）。 4 月经济动能环比可能放缓，但下滑的斜率还需要观察。市场此前对二季度经 济增长或相对承压已有一定预期，4 月基本面能否出现显著"预期差"进而带 动收益率加速下行的概率并不大，后续重点跟踪 4 月高频和关税动向。 二、货币条件："防空转"有诉求，资金"贵而不紧 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 银行业重大事项点评 财政部战略投资国有银行，夯实资本实力 事项： 3 月 30 日晚间，建设银行、中国银行、交通银行和邮储银行分别发布《向特 定对象发行 A 股股票预案》，获财政部战略投资。募资均用于补充各行核心一 级资本。 评论： 行业研究 银行 2025 年 03 月 31 日 推荐（维持） 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：贾靖 邮箱：jiajing@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523040004 证券分析师：林宛慧 邮箱：linwanhui@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360524110001 证券分析师：徐康 电话：021-20572556 邮箱：xukang@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360518060005 相对指数表现 | % | 1M | 6M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现 | 2.3% | 13.6% | 32.4% | | 相对表现 | 1.6% | 7.9% | 21.2% | -12% 3% 18% 33% 24/04 24/06 24/08 24/11 25/01 25/03 2024- ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expectation to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [1][17]. Core Views - The company is expected to see continuous profit recovery driven by the ramp-up of new projects and cost optimization efforts [1]. - The report highlights a significant increase in total revenue for 2024, reaching 34.226 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 25.6% [2][6]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 3.903 billion yuan for 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 9.1% [2][6]. Financial Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: - 2024A: 34,226 million yuan - 2025E: 38,647 million yuan (12.9% growth) - 2026E: 41,524 million yuan (7.4% growth) - 2027E: 43,924 million yuan (5.8% growth) [2][7] - **Net Profit Forecast**: - 2024A: 3,903 million yuan - 2025E: 4,178 million yuan (7.1% growth) - 2026E: 4,714 million yuan (12.8% growth) - 2027E: 5,096 million yuan (8.1% growth) [2][7] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2024A: 1.84 yuan - 2025E: 1.97 yuan - 2026E: 2.22 yuan - 2027E: 2.40 yuan [2][7] - **Valuation Ratios**: - Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio for 2025 is projected at 14 times, with a target price of 27.58 yuan based on current market conditions [2][6]. Operational Insights - The company has seen revenue contributions from various segments, including new energy materials, chemical fertilizers, organic amines, and acetic acid derivatives, with notable growth in the acetic acid segment at 98.34% year-on-year [6]. - The report indicates that the company has successfully optimized its product mix and improved operational efficiency, leading to stable revenue growth despite some price declines in key products [6]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from improved margins in the first quarter of 2025 due to rising urea prices driven by spring planting demand and a decrease in coal prices, which will alleviate cost pressures [6]. - The ongoing projects and new material product developments are anticipated to provide new growth momentum for the company in the medium to long term [6].

青岛啤酒（600600）2024 年报点评 强推（维持） 企稳向好，加速可期 事项： 公司发布 2024 年年报。全年公司实现营业总收入 321.4 亿元，同比-5.3%；实 现归母净利润 43.45 亿元，同增 1.8%；扣非归母净利润为 39.5 亿元，同增 6.2%； 单 Q4 公司实现营业总收入 31.8 亿元，同比+7.4%；实现归母净利润-6.4 亿元， 同比基本持平；扣非归母净利润为-7.35 亿元，去年同期-8.76 亿元。此外，计 划每股派发现金股利 2.20 元（含税），共计拟派发现金股利 30.01 亿元，分红 率提升约 5pcts 至 69%。 公司研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 评论： [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 32,138 | 33,639 | 34,556 | 35,235 | | 同比增速(%) | -5.3% | 4.7% | 2.7% | 2.0% | | 归母净利润(百万) | ...

行业研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券行业重大事项点评 证券公司全面风险管理规范修订，强化对境 推荐（维持） 外子公司、衍生品等风险管理 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：徐康 电话：021-20572556 邮箱：xukang@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360518060005 事项： 本周证券业协会发布《证券公司全面风险管理规范（修订稿）》（下称《规范》）、《证 券公司市场风险管理指引》（下称《指引》）。 观点： 此次发布的《规范》是协会过往陆续发布证券公司全面风险管理要求的总纲领文件。 此次《规范》修订加强了对证券公司境外子公司、表外业务、场外业务等新业务新风险 做出了进一步规范。 新增子公司管理章节，强化子公司风险管理。过往证券公司风险管理主要集中于证 券公司母公司及其全部业务的监管，对于子公司业务主要将子公司净资产及担保规模从 净资本中进行扣减，而此次《规范》提出将证券公司子公司亦纳入监管范畴。往年受到 境外美元债、美联储利率波动等影响，海通国际等证券公司境外子公司出现了一系列风 险，受担保影响，证券公司母公司净资产亦受到削弱。随着未来证券公司出海步伐推进， 以及 TRS 等跨境内外的衍生品业务发 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for China Communications Construction Company (CCCC) with a target price of 11.3 CNY per share [2][9]. Core Views - CCCC achieved a revenue of 771.9 billion CNY in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 1.74%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 1.81% to 23.4 billion CNY, and the net profit after deducting non-recurring items fell by 8.44% to 19.81 billion CNY [2][9]. - The company is actively expanding its emerging business sectors, with a significant increase in new contracts signed, particularly in overseas projects, which grew by 12.5% [9]. - CCCC's cash flow continues to improve, with a net increase in cash and cash equivalents of 18 billion CNY, primarily due to operational cash inflows [9]. Financial Summary - **Revenue and Profitability**: - Total revenue for 2024 is projected at 771.9 billion CNY, with a growth rate of 1.7% expected for 2025 [5]. - The net profit for 2024 is estimated at 23.38 billion CNY, with a projected growth of 5.1% in 2025 [5]. - The gross margin for 2024 is reported at 12.29%, a slight decrease of 0.3 percentage points year-on-year [9]. - **Business Segments**: - Revenue from infrastructure construction, design, dredging, and other businesses is reported at 681.4 billion CNY, 36.3 billion CNY, 59.4 billion CNY, and 26 billion CNY respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of +2.3%, -23.3%, +11.1%, and +34.7% [9]. - **Order Backlog**: - The company has a substantial order backlog, with an uncompleted contract amounting to 3.49 trillion CNY, which is 452% of the projected revenue for 2024 [9]. - **Cost Management**: - The expense ratio for 2024 is reported at 6.01%, a decrease of 0.26 percentage points, indicating improved cost control [9]. - **Future Projections**: - EPS for 2025-2027 is projected to be 1.51 CNY, 1.63 CNY, and 1.75 CNY respectively, with a target PE ratio of 7.5x for 2025 [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Hengmingda (002947) [1] Core Views - The company achieved significant growth in 2024, driven by major clients in the die-cutting sector and Huayangtong, with a revenue increase of 36.74% year-on-year to 2.486 billion yuan and a net profit increase of 62.36% to 457 million yuan [6][7] - The precision flexible structural components (consumer electronics) and precision metal components (Huayangtong) both contributed to the revenue growth, with respective revenues of 2.059 billion yuan (up 35.06%) and 390 million yuan (up 50.35%) [6][7] - The company is positioned to benefit from a new growth cycle in the die-cutting market, particularly with the release of Apple Intelligence and the anticipated demand for foldable screens [6][7] - Huayangtong is expected to benefit from the AI development trend, with its server business gaining traction and expansion into charging piles and energy storage [6][7] - The forecasted net profits for 2025 to 2027 are 700 million yuan, 938 million yuan, and 1.223 billion yuan respectively, with a target price of 60 yuan based on a 22x P/E ratio for 2025 [6][7] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2024 is projected at 2,486 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 36.7% [2] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to reach 457 million yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 62.4% [2] - Earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is estimated at 1.78 yuan, with a projected P/E ratio of 21 [2][6] - The company’s total assets are projected to grow to 5.155 billion yuan by 2025, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 4.1% [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for China Communications Construction Company (CCCC) with a target price of 11.3 CNY per share [2][9]. Core Views - CCCC achieved a revenue of 771.9 billion CNY in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 1.74%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 1.81% to 23.4 billion CNY, and the net profit after deducting non-recurring items fell by 8.44% to 19.812 billion CNY [2][9]. - The company is actively expanding its emerging business sectors, with a significant increase in new contracts signed, particularly in overseas projects, which grew by 12.5% [9]. - CCCC's cash flow continues to improve, with a net increase of 18 billion CNY in cash and cash equivalents, primarily due to operational cash inflows [9]. Financial Summary - **Revenue and Profitability**: - Total revenue for 2024 is projected at 771.9 billion CNY, with a growth rate of 1.7% expected for 2025 [5]. - The net profit for 2024 is estimated at 23.384 billion CNY, with a projected growth of 5.1% in 2025 [5]. - The gross margin for 2024 is reported at 12.29%, a slight decrease of 0.3 percentage points year-on-year [9]. - **Business Segments**: - Revenue from infrastructure construction, design, dredging, and other businesses reached 681.4 billion CNY, 36.3 billion CNY, 59.4 billion CNY, and 26 billion CNY respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of +2.3%, -23.3%, +11.1%, and +34.7% [9]. - **Order Backlog**: - The company has a robust order backlog, with an uncompleted contract amounting to 3.49 trillion CNY, which is 452% of the expected revenue for 2024 [9]. - **Cost Management**: - The expense ratio for 2024 is reported at 6.01%, a decrease of 0.26 percentage points, indicating effective cost control measures [9]. - **Future Projections**: - EPS for 2025-2027 is projected to be 1.51 CNY, 1.63 CNY, and 1.75 CNY respectively, with a target PE ratio of 7.5x for 2025 [9].

证 券 研 究 报 告 新城控股（601155）2024 年报点评 推荐（维持） 商管利润占比渐提升，开发持续承压 目标价：17 元 事项： 2024 年公司实现营业收入 889.99 亿元，同比下降 25.32%，归母净利润 7.52 亿 元，同比上升 2.07%。 评论： [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 88,999 | 63,948 | 57,387 | 54,139 | | 同比增速(%) | -25.3% | -28.1% | -10.3% | -5.7% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 752 | 570 | 722 | 816 | | 同比增速(%) | 2.1% | -24.3% | 26.8% | 13.0% | | 每股盈利(元) | 0.33 | 0.25 | 0.32 | 0.36 | | 市盈率(倍) | 39 | 52 | 41 | 36 | | 市净率(倍) | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0. ...