Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Yili Co., Ltd. (600887) with a target price of 36 CNY [2][6]. Core Insights - Yili has outlined a five-year growth plan focusing on stabilizing the entire industry chain and enhancing profitability amidst weak demand and intensified competition. The company aims for a net profit margin of 9% for the year [6]. - The company expects revenue growth to outpace GDP growth over the next five years, with a focus on liquid milk and functional nutrition as key growth drivers [6]. - Yili plans to increase its market share in various product categories, including infant formula and low-temperature dairy products, while also accelerating international expansion [6]. - A commitment to high dividend payouts has been established, with plans for cash dividends to account for at least 75% of net profit from 2025 to 2027 [6]. Financial Summary - Projected total revenue (in million CNY) for 2024A is 115,780, with a year-on-year growth rate of -8.2%. By 2027E, revenue is expected to reach 125,537 million CNY, with a growth rate of 3.5% [2][6]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 8,453 million CNY in 2024A, with a significant increase to 13,302 million CNY by 2027E, reflecting a growth rate of 8.2% [2][6]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to rise from 1.34 CNY in 2024A to 2.10 CNY in 2027E, indicating a positive trend in profitability [2][6]. Market Position and Strategy - Yili aims to lead the liquid milk market by 2026, with a focus on penetrating lower-tier markets and enhancing presence in high-tier cities [6]. - The company is shifting its marketing strategy from traditional methods to more engaging and ROI-focused approaches, which is expected to support ongoing profitability improvements [6]. - Yili's international business is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 20%, with a focus on high-value products from New Zealand and expanding its presence in Southeast Asia [6].

计算机行业重大事项点评 推荐（维持） 鸿蒙：生态技术双突破，自主底座能力再巩固 事项： ❑ 2025 年 11 月 14-16 日，于深圳举办的第二十七届中国国际高新技术成果交易 会（高交会）上，华为鸿蒙生态以独立展区形式全面亮相，系统展示了其在工 业、安平、医疗、金融等关键领域的创新应用成果。展会集中呈现了鸿蒙生态 以 OpenHarmony 开源项目为共同技术底座，汇聚 AI+分布式安防场景的安平 鸿蒙、具身智能+设备互联场景的工业鸿蒙、设备互联+AI 辅助诊断场景的医 疗鸿蒙、政务+产业协同场景的园区鸿蒙、中移智鸿开源底座场景家庭鸿蒙等 众多行业发行版。 证 券 研 究 报 告 评论： 行业研究 计算机 2025 年 11 月 18 日 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：吴鸣远 邮箱：wumingyuan@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523040001 联系人：周楚薇 邮箱：zhouchuwei@hcyjs.com 行业基本数据 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数(只) | 338 | 0.04 | | 总市值(亿元) | 58,692.16 | 4.84 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content was found in the provided documents. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The equity market is currently in the process of brewing the main investment themes for the next year, with significant style adjustments and accelerated sector rotation. The AI - related industrial chain and sectors mentioned in the 14th Five - Year Plan are worthy of attention [1][8][9]. - In the convertible bond market, mid - low - priced convertible bonds have performed well recently, and historically, defensive varieties have shown good excess returns at the end of the year. The large - cap convertible bond index also has a better cost - performance ratio at the end of the year [1][17][22]. Summary According to the Directory 1. End - of - year Main Theme Brewing Period: Focus on Mid - low - priced and Large - cap Convertible Bonds - The equity market has shown significant style adjustments since October. The trading congestion of TMT sectors has declined, while the trading in some non - ferrous, new/old energy sectors has become active. The sector rotation speed usually accelerates in the last 1 - 2 months of the year, and the trends of strong sectors may change [1][8][9]. - Mid - low - priced convertible bonds have performed well since mid - October, while high - priced equity - biased convertible bonds have fluctuated. Historically, except for 2019 - 2021, low - priced convertible bonds have had more obvious relative returns at the end of the year. The large - cap convertible bond index also has a better cost - performance ratio at the end of the year [1][17][22]. 2. Market Review: Convertible Bonds Rose Slightly Weekly, and Valuations Increased Slightly (1) Weekly Market Conditions: The Convertible Bond Market Rose Slightly, and Half of the Sectors Rose - Last week, the Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.18%, the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 1.40%, the ChiNext Index decreased by 3.01%, the SSE 50 Index remained unchanged, the CSI 1000 Index decreased by 0.52%, and the CSI Convertible Bond Index increased by 0.52%. There are 405 issued and unexpired convertible bonds, with a balance of 552.048 billion yuan [23]. - In the equity market, more than half of the industries in the Shenwan Primary Industry Index rose. In the convertible bond market, the iron and steel, petroleum and petrochemical, non - ferrous metals, food and beverage, and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery sectors rose, while the media, electronics, building materials, communications, and national defense and military industries declined [28]. - Most of the popular concepts rose last week, with the cross - strait integration, SPD, antibiotics, and other concepts leading the increase, while the optical communication, photolithography factory, and other concepts led the decline [30]. (2) Valuation Performance: The Premium Rates of Convertible Bonds with Different Ratings and Sizes Changed Differently - The weighted average closing price of convertible bonds was 134.95 yuan, an increase of 0.48% from the previous Friday. The closing prices of equity - biased, debt - biased, and balanced convertible bonds all increased. The proportion of the 110 - 120 (inclusive) price range decreased significantly. The median price increased by 0.55%. The convertible bond market's 100 - yuan par - value fitted conversion premium rate increased by 0.11 percentage points [32]. - The premium rates of convertible bonds with different ratings and sizes changed differently. The A+ rating decreased by 0.46 percentage points, and the size of less than 3 billion yuan (inclusive) decreased by 1.5 percentage points. The conversion premium rate of convertible bonds in the par - value range of less than 80 yuan (inclusive) decreased by 2.37 percentage points [32]. 3. Terms and Supply: 3 Convertible Bonds Announced Early Redemption, and the Total Pending Issuance Scale is Approximately 11 Billion Yuan (1) Terms: Last week, 3 Convertible Bonds Announced Early Redemption, and No Convertible Bond's Board of Directors Proposed a Downward Revision - As of November 14, Yuguang, Cehui, and Tianci announced early redemption; Dazhong, Weice, and Saili convertible bonds announced no early redemption; Chutian, Lizhong, Youcai, Huicheng, Haoyuan, Guocheng, Aofei, Mingdianzhuan 02, Hongfa, and Shenma convertible bonds announced that they were expected to meet the early redemption conditions [2][53]. - Last week, no convertible bond's board of directors proposed a downward revision. Dongshi convertible bond announced the downward revision result; 7 convertible bonds announced no downward revision, and 9 convertible bonds announced that they were expected to trigger a downward revision [2][53]. (2) Primary Market: Last week, Ruike Convertible Bonds were Issued, and the Total Pending Issuance Scale is Approximately 11 Billion Yuan - Last week, Ruike Convertible Bonds were issued with a scale of 1 billion yuan, and there were no newly listed convertible bonds [3][56]. - Last week, 1 company added a board of directors' plan, 3 companies passed the shareholders' meeting, 1 company passed the issuance review committee's approval, and 1 company was approved by the CSRC, with year - on - year changes of +1, +3, - 1, and +1 respectively. As of November 14, 5 listed companies obtained convertible bond issuance approvals, with a proposed issuance scale of 3.762 billion yuan; 7 companies passed the issuance review committee, with a total scale of 6.473 billion yuan. Laite Optoelectronics added a board of directors' plan last week, with a scale of 766 million yuan [3][57][63].

Group 1: Fiscal Revenue Trends - In October, general fiscal revenue decreased by 0.6% year-on-year, compared to a 3.2% increase in September[1] - The five real estate-related taxes remained nearly flat year-on-year at -1.4%, while land sales revenue dropped by 27.3%, marking the lowest monthly growth since August of the previous year[2] - Tax revenue growth was relatively high at 8.6%, leading to a negative growth rate in general fiscal revenue due to the significant decline in land sales revenue[2] Group 2: Real Estate Tax Observations - Non-transaction taxes (urban land use tax, arable land occupation tax, property tax) increased by 6.4% year-on-year, contributing to the divergence from land sales revenue[3] - Transaction-related taxes (land value-added tax, deed tax) fell by 16%, correlating with the 27.3% drop in land sales revenue[3] Group 3: Land Sales Revenue Analysis - City investment platforms contributed 30% to 40% of land sales revenue, but this was based on unsustainable practices[4] - The proportion of land acquired by city investment platforms is expected to drop from 33.4% in 2024 to 24.8% in 2023, returning to 2021 levels[4] - The concentration of land sales revenue among the top 10 cities reached 48%, significantly higher than previous years, indicating a structural shift in the market[5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Hunan Haili, with a target price of 10.5 CNY per share [2][8]. Core Views - The company's performance in the first three quarters of 2025 was slightly weaker than expected, with total revenue of 1.479 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 13.36%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 198 million CNY, a slight decline of 1.24% year-on-year [2][8]. - The company successfully advanced its first stock incentive plan, completing the repurchase of approximately 16.76 million shares, accounting for 3% of the total share capital, at a price range of 6.87 CNY to 7.53 CNY per share [8]. - The demand for pest control due to vector-borne diseases is increasing, with optimistic prospects for key products like "Killing Agent" and "Qiazi" [8]. - The lithium battery cathode business is expected to benefit from technological advancements and market recovery, with a current capacity of 5,000 tons and plans to expand to 16,000 tons [8]. - The report forecasts revenue for 2025-2027 to be 2.7 billion CNY, 3.6 billion CNY, and 4.3 billion CNY respectively, with net profits of 300 million CNY, 390 million CNY, and 500 million CNY, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 11.9%, 32.2%, and 27.4% respectively [8]. Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2024A is projected at 2.471 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth rate of 4.1%. For 2025E, revenue is expected to reach 2.67 billion CNY, with an 8.1% growth rate [4][9]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 265 million CNY in 2024A, increasing to 297 million CNY in 2025E, reflecting a growth rate of -3.1% and 11.9% respectively [4][9]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.47 CNY for 2024A, increasing to 0.53 CNY for 2025E [4][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the wind power industry, particularly for companies like Mingyang Smart Energy [2]. Core Insights - The wind power industry is experiencing a recovery in pricing and profitability, driven by a combination of factors including policy changes and robust domestic and international demand [6][7]. - The profitability of wind turbine manufacturers is increasingly reliant on wind farm development and operation, as manufacturing margins have been under pressure due to price wars and competition [11][15]. - The trend of turbine size increasing is slowing down, leading to a more concentrated industry as smaller players exit due to unsustainable losses [5][39]. Summary by Sections 1. Profit Structure of Wind Turbine Manufacturers - Wind turbine manufacturers derive profits from two main areas: equipment manufacturing and wind resource development, with the latter gaining a larger share of profits over time [11][15]. - The manufacturing sector has seen a significant decline in profit margins, with some companies reporting negative margins due to intense price competition [37][39]. 2. Recovery of Turbine Prices and Industry Profitability - Turbine prices have bottomed out and are expected to rise, with a projected increase of approximately 10% from the previous year [40][56]. - The industry is witnessing a shift from low-price competition to a focus on quality and sustainable pricing, supported by new policies aimed at curbing price wars [45][46]. 3. Domestic Demand and International Market Opportunities - Domestic wind power installation is projected to exceed 120 GW in 2025, driven by a robust bidding environment and government support for large-scale projects [60][62]. - Internationally, markets in Europe and emerging regions in Asia, Africa, and Latin America are expected to see significant growth, with annual additions projected to double in the next five years [5][60]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies like Goldwind Technology, Mingyang Smart Energy, and Sany Heavy Energy, as they are well-positioned to benefit from the recovery in turbine prices and strong demand [5][6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the aviation industry, indicating an expectation of growth exceeding the benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 3-6 months [4][60]. Core Insights - The aviation industry is experiencing a positive turning point, with passenger load factors reaching their highest levels of the year and ticket prices showing a year-on-year increase of 8.9% [4][3]. - The supply-demand dynamics are more favorable than in 2019 and 2024, with structural improvements in demand, particularly in business travel and cross-border travel [4]. - The report highlights the constraints on supply due to maintenance backlogs and low growth in new aircraft introductions, reinforcing the supply-side constraints [4]. Summary by Sections October Data Analysis - In October, the ASK (Available Seat Kilometers) growth rates were led by Spring Airlines at 16.5%, followed by China Southern Airlines at 7.5% and China Eastern Airlines at 6.8% [1]. - The RPK (Revenue Passenger Kilometers) growth rates for October were also led by Spring Airlines at 20.1%, with China Eastern Airlines at 10.6% and China Southern Airlines at 8.8% [1]. - Cumulatively from January to October, Spring Airlines again led with ASK growth of 11.7% and RPK growth of 11.4% [1]. Passenger Load Factor - In October, the passenger load factors were highest for Spring Airlines at 93.2%, followed by China Southern Airlines at 87.9% and China Eastern Airlines at 87.5% [3]. - Year-to-date, Spring Airlines maintained a load factor of 91.5%, slightly down by 0.2% year-on-year, while China Southern Airlines improved by 1.5% to 85.9% [3]. Fleet Size - As of October 2025, the five listed airlines collectively added 7 aircraft, with a year-on-year fleet size increase of 3.5% [3][15]. Pricing Trends - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in October showed a year-on-year increase of 0.2%, with air ticket prices rising by 8.9% [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes a positive outlook for investments in major airlines such as Air China, China Southern Airlines, and China Eastern Airlines, highlighting their potential for elasticity in performance [4]. - It also recommends focusing on low-cost carriers like Spring Airlines and regional leaders like Huaxia Airlines, which are expected to reach sustainable operational turning points [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the AI and SaaS integration trend in the computer industry [2]. Core Insights - The integration of AI and SaaS is an inevitable trend due to their technological complementarity, enhancing operational efficiency and user experience across various sectors [6][7]. - The global AI market is projected to reach $368.85 billion by 2025, with significant growth in AI-related investments expected in 2024 [12][17]. - The report emphasizes the importance of specific sectors such as advertising, programming, and education in the AI and SaaS integration landscape [6][7]. Summary by Sections 1. AI and SaaS Integration - AI and SaaS have complementary technologies, making their integration a necessity [10]. - The commercial viability of AI relies on specific application scenarios, which SaaS can provide [12]. - The cloud computing market in China is expected to exceed 2.1 trillion yuan by 2027, supporting AI applications in SaaS [17][20]. 2. Sector-Specific Applications - **AI + Advertising**: AI enhances advertising efficiency and effectiveness, with the AI marketing market projected to reach $35.54 billion by 2025 [28][30]. - **AI + Programming**: The global AI coding tools market is expected to reach $6.7 billion by 2024, with a CAGR of 25.2% [40]. - **AI + Education**: The AI education market is projected to grow from $2.46 billion in 2024 to $28.22 billion by 2032, with a CAGR of approximately 35.66% [54][56]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on specific companies within the AI + SaaS sectors: - For AI + Advertising: Google, Meta, APPlovin, Unity [64] - For AI + Programming: Gitlab [64] - For AI + Education: Duolingo [64]

证 券 研 究 报 告 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：韩星雨 邮箱：hanxingyu@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525050001 证券分析师：陆偲聪 邮箱：lusicong@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525050002 家电行业 2025Q3 基金重仓分析 重仓家电比例下降，家电上游及清洁电器获 推荐（维持） 增配 行业研究 家电 2025 年 11 月 18 日 行业基本数据 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数(只) | 80 | 0.01 | | 总市值(亿元) | 20,320.65 | 1.67 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 18,146.56 | 1.85 | 相对指数表现 | % | 1M | 6M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现 | 5.4% | 8.0% | 9.9% | | 相对表现 | 3.4% | -9.4% | -4.7% | -11% -2% 8% 18% 24/11 25/01 25/04 25/06 25/09 25/11 2024-11-18~2025-11 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended," indicating an expected increase in the industry index exceeding the benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 3-6 months [22]. Core Insights - The insurance index rose by 2.62%, outperforming the market by 3.71 percentage points, with significant individual stock performance variations [1]. - As of Q3 2025, the total balance of insurance funds reached 37.5 trillion, with life insurance companies holding 33.73 trillion and property insurance companies holding 2.39 trillion [2]. - The solvency adequacy ratio for insurance companies was reported at 186.3% for comprehensive and 134.3% for core solvency, with property insurance companies showing a strong solvency position [2]. - The report highlights a shift in asset allocation, with a decrease in bond allocation and an increase in equity and fund holdings, suggesting a more aggressive investment strategy in the current market environment [5]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The insurance sector showed a positive performance with a 2.62% increase in the index, outperforming the broader market [1]. - Individual stock performances varied, with notable increases in stocks like Taiping (+10.96%) and PICC (+3.16%) [1]. Fund Allocation - As of Q3 2025, the allocation of insurance funds was as follows: bonds 50.3%, stocks 10%, and funds 5.5%, with a slight increase in stock and fund allocations [4]. - Life insurance companies had a bond allocation of 51% and a stock allocation of 10.1%, while property insurance companies had a bond allocation of 40.6% and a stock allocation of 8.7% [4]. Company Performance - New China Life reported a cumulative premium income of 181.973 billion, a 17% year-on-year increase [2]. - China Pacific Life's cumulative premium income was 241.322 billion, reflecting a 9.9% increase, while its property insurance segment saw a modest 0.4% growth [2][3]. - ZhongAn Online reported a cumulative premium income of 29.822 billion [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a strong beta attribute for the sector in the short term, with a focus on asset performance as a key driver [5]. - Long-term recommendations include companies like China Pacific, China Life, and New China Life based on fundamental performance and valuation [10].