Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since July 1, 2025, the "anti - involution" policy has been in force. The risk of price war in the automobile industry has decreased, and the valuation of convertible bonds in the manufacturing sector has risen. The weighted index of underlying stocks of convertible bonds has increased by 7.88% since the "anti - involution" market started at the end of June. As of July 11, the forced redemption probability in July is 62.0%, at the second - highest point since 2021 [1][12]. - The game space for near - maturity convertible bonds has narrowed. The fitted premium rates of convertible bonds with remaining terms of 0 - 1 year and 1 - 2 years have increased by 1.94pct and 1.85pct respectively compared to the end of June [2]. - As of July 11, among 463 listed companies in the convertible bond market, 40 have released 2025 semi - annual report performance forecasts, with a disclosure rate of 8.64% and a pre - happy rate of 60.00%. Performance clues are mainly concentrated in resource products, and their performance may continue to be realized in the second half of the year [3][19]. - Last week, the main stock indexes rose, and the convertible bond market followed. The weighted average closing price of convertible bonds increased by 0.72% compared to the previous Friday. Only the conversion premium rate of high - rated convertible bonds increased [22][32]. - Last week, 4 convertible bonds announced redemptions, and no convertible bond's board of directors proposed a downward revision. Huachen and Luwei convertible bonds were listed, and Guanghe convertible bond was issued, with an expected issuance scale of about 7 billion yuan [4][5]. Summary According to the Directory "Anti - involution" Market Continues to Heat Up, and Forced Redemptions are Triggered Concentratedly - The "anti - involution" policy has been continuously strengthened. The risk of price war in the automobile industry has decreased, and the fitted premium rate of the manufacturing sector's convertible bonds has increased by 0.45pct compared to the previous Friday as of July 11 [10]. - Driven by the equity market, most convertible bonds have accumulated more days to trigger redemption clauses. As of July 11, 10 convertible bonds have announced redemptions and are waiting for delisting, with a total balance of 5.414 billion yuan, and 50 convertible bonds have accumulated redemption days, with a total balance of 22.888 billion yuan [12]. - The proportion of forced redemptions has increased marginally. Some "new - issue bonds" are also actively redeeming. The game space for near - maturity convertible bonds has narrowed, and investment strategies may need adjustment [15]. How is the Performance Forecast During the Semi - annual Report Window? - As of July 11, 40 out of 463 listed companies in the convertible bond market have released 2025 semi - annual report performance forecasts, with a disclosure rate of 8.64% and a pre - happy rate of 60.00%. Performance clues are mainly concentrated in resource products [19]. - Due to the summer peak electricity consumption, price increases, and the "anti - involution" policy, the performance of resource products may continue to be realized, and convertible bonds upstream of the silicon chain may improve their profitability [19]. Market Review: Convertible Bonds Rise Weekly, and Valuation Slightly Increases at a High Level Weekly Market Conditions: The Convertible Bond Market Rises, and Most Sectors Perform Strongly - Last week, the main stock indexes rose, and the convertible bond market followed. There are 480 issued and non - matured convertible bonds, with a balance of 653.887 billion yuan. Some convertible bonds are yet to be listed, and there are no convertible bonds to be issued currently [22]. - Most industries in the A - share and convertible bond markets rose. The real estate, steel, and non - bank finance industries led the rise in the A - share market, while the environmental protection, non - bank finance, and coal sectors led the rise in the convertible bond market [27]. Valuation Performance: Only the Conversion Premium Rate of High - rated Convertible Bonds Increases - The weighted average closing price of convertible bonds is 124.16 yuan, a 0.72% increase from the previous Friday. The closing prices of equity - biased, bond - biased, and balanced convertible bonds have all increased. The proportion of convertible bonds in the 110 - 120 (including 120) price range has decreased significantly [32]. - The 100 - yuan parity fitted conversion premium rate of the convertible bond market is 25.38%, a 0.26pct increase from the previous Friday. Only the conversion premium rate of high - rated convertible bonds has increased, while most ratings and scales have seen a compression in the premium rate [32]. Terms and Supply: 4 Convertible Bonds Announce Redemptions, and the Expected Issuance Scale is About 12 Billion Yuan Terms: Last Week, 4 Convertible Bonds Announced Redemptions, and No Convertible Bond's Board of Directors Proposed a Downward Revision - As of July 11, Weilong, Quanfeng, Zhite, and Henghui convertible bonds announced redemptions; Guansheng, Huitong, and Qilu convertible bonds announced redemption arrangements. 13 convertible bonds announced no downward revisions, and 5 convertible bonds are expected to trigger downward revisions [4][49]. Primary Market: Last Week, Huachen and Luwei Convertible Bonds were Listed, and Guanghe Convertible Bond was Issued, with an Expected Issuance Scale of About 7 Billion Yuan - Last week, Huachen and Luwei convertible bonds were listed, with a total scale of 1.075 billion yuan, and Guanghe convertible bond was issued, with a scale of 4.9 billion yuan [54]. - As of July 11, 3 listed companies have obtained convertible bond issuance approvals, with a planned issuance scale of 4.11 billion yuan. 3 listed companies have passed the review committee, with a total scale of 2.62 billion yuan. There were no new board of directors' proposals last week [63].

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Strong Buy" rating for Lingyun Co., Ltd. with a target price of 14.9 CNY [1]. Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from the dual drivers of hot stamping and battery box businesses, with a significant increase in revenue and profit projected due to the rising penetration of new energy vehicles [1][6]. - Lingyun has established a strong market position through strategic partnerships and acquisitions, enhancing its capabilities in key automotive components [6][38]. Financial Summary - Projected total revenue for 2024A is 18,837 million CNY, with a growth rate of 0.7% [1]. - Expected net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024A is 655 million CNY, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.8% [1]. - Earnings per share are projected to be 0.54 CNY for 2024A, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 22 times [1]. Business Overview - Lingyun Co., Ltd. has over 30 years of experience in the automotive parts industry, with a global presence and a focus on high-strength, lightweight automotive safety systems and various pipeline systems [6][13]. - The company has diversified into new energy battery management systems, fluid control systems, and sensor technology, creating new growth avenues [6][13]. Hot Stamping and Battery Box Business - The hot stamping business is expected to grow due to the increasing demand for lightweight and high-strength components in the automotive industry [23][24]. - The battery box segment is projected to expand significantly as the penetration of new energy vehicles increases, with the market for aluminum battery boxes expected to reach approximately 350 billion CNY by 2027 [38][49]. Sensor Technology Development - Lingyun is actively developing sensor technology, particularly in the field of force sensors for robotics, which is anticipated to open new growth opportunities [6][38]. - The company plans to collaborate with research institutions to accelerate the development of sensor projects, enhancing its long-term growth potential [6][38]. Market Position and Competitive Advantage - Lingyun has established partnerships with major automotive manufacturers, including Tesla, BMW, and Audi, which strengthens its market position [6][38]. - The company has a diversified product portfolio and a broad customer base, which contributes to its competitive advantage in the automotive parts market [6][38].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Report's Core View - The scope of domestic investors in the Bond "Southbound Connect" may be expanded to four types of non - banking institutions, namely securities firms, funds, insurance companies, and wealth management institutions. The annual quota may be increased from RMB 50 billion to RMB 100 billion. This improvement in the mechanism helps investors have more asset investment options and alleviates the asset shortage to some extent [1][5][8]. - Based on the understanding of enterprise fundamentals by domestic investors, they can actively focus on the investment opportunities of overseas bonds of domestic enterprises traded in the Hong Kong market. It is recommended to pay attention to urban investment dim - sum bonds and investment opportunities in various industries of Chinese - funded US dollar bonds [5][32]. Summary According to the Table of Contents I. Bond "Southbound Connect" Overview: Definition, Existing Institutional Arrangements, Investment Entities, and Quota Usage - **Definition**: It refers to the mechanism arrangement where domestic investors invest in bonds traded and circulated in the Hong Kong bond market through the interconnection of relevant basic service institutions in the Mainland and Hong Kong in bond trading, custody, and settlement [2][8]. - **Institutional Arrangements**: - **Target Bonds**: All bond types issued overseas and traded in the Hong Kong bond market [2][9][16]. - **Domestic Investor Scope**: Currently, it is tentatively limited to some primary dealers in the open - market operations recognized by the People's Bank of China. Qualified Domestic Institutional Investors (QDII) and Renminbi Qualified Domestic Institutional Investors (RQDII) can also conduct overseas bond investments through the "Southbound Connect" [2][9][18]. - **Trading Currency**: Domestic investors can use RMB or foreign exchange. The funds can only be used for bond investment. When using RMB to invest in foreign - currency bonds, investors can handle foreign - exchange conversion and hedging in the inter - bank foreign - exchange market. After the bonds mature or are sold, if investors do not continue to invest, the funds should be remitted back to the Mainland and converted back to RMB. Illegal currency arbitrage through the "Southbound Connect" is prohibited [15][18]. - **Quota Limit**: The upper limit of the net cross - border capital outflow of the "Southbound Connect" does not exceed the annual quota and the daily quota. Currently, the annual quota is RMB 50 billion equivalent, and the daily quota is RMB 20 billion equivalent. The net cross - border capital outflow of QDII and RQDII participating in the "Southbound Connect" is not included in the quota statistics [3][15][18]. - **Investment Entities**: - **Primary Dealers in Open - Market Operations**: 41 bank - type financial institutions in the 2020 annual open - market operations of the People's Bank of China [9][10]. - **QDII**: As of the end of June 2025, 191 institutions have obtained QDII quotas, with a total of USD 170.869 billion. The quota growth has gradually slowed down [13]. - **RQDII**: They can independently decide to conduct securities investment overseas without quota restrictions [14]. - **Quota Usage**: As of the end of May 2025, Shanghai Clearing House held 918 "Southbound Connect" bonds through the financial infrastructure interconnection model, with a total balance of RMB 532.94 billion, a year - on - year increase of 21% [3][18] II. Analysis of the Current Situation of the Overseas Bond Market: Dim - Sum Bonds and Chinese - Funded US Dollar Bonds (1) Dim - Sum Bonds - As of July 9, 2025, there were 1,734 outstanding dim - sum bonds with a total balance of RMB 1,419.7 billion. Financial bonds accounted for 47% (RMB 663.2 billion), followed by urban investment bonds and government bonds, accounting for 24% and 18% respectively [4][22]. - The issuing entities of outstanding dim - sum bonds are mainly of medium - to - high grades. Over 80% have a remaining term of less than 3 years. Among them, about 45% of the issuing entities have no relevant ratings, and among those with ratings, AAA and AA+ entities account for 37% and 12% respectively. In terms of remaining terms, those within 1 year and 1 - 3 years account for 40% and 42% respectively [25]. (2) Chinese - Funded US Dollar Bonds - As of July 9, 2025, there were 2,227 outstanding Chinese - funded US dollar bonds with a total balance of approximately USD 72.5 billion. Industrial bonds and financial bonds accounted for a relatively high proportion, 38% and 31% respectively, followed by real - estate bonds (17%) and urban investment bonds (10%) [4][28]. - The issuing entities of outstanding Chinese - funded US dollar bonds are mainly of high grades, and about 61% have a remaining term of less than 3 years. About 38% of the issuing entities have no relevant ratings, and among those with ratings, AAA entities account for about 50%. In terms of remaining terms, those within 1 year and 1 - 3 years account for 25% and 36% respectively [32]. III. Focus on Investment Opportunities in Overseas Bonds under the Expansion of the Bond "Southbound Connect" - **Investment Opportunities in the Primary Market**: Chinese - funded overseas bonds have relatively high coupon yields. The coupon yields of urban investment bonds in outstanding dim - sum bonds are generally 100 - 300 BP higher than those of domestic bonds, and the coupon yields of various industries of Chinese - funded US dollar bonds are generally 50 - 300 BP higher than those of domestic bonds [5][33]. - **Investment Opportunities in the Secondary Market**: Chinese - funded overseas bonds have obvious excess spreads compared with domestic bonds. The spreads of dim - sum bonds are mostly within 100 BP, and those of Chinese - funded US dollar bonds are mostly above 200 BP [5][36]. - **Specific Investment Recommendations**: - **Urban Investment Overseas Bonds**: There have been no substantial default cases of domestic and overseas bonds of urban investment entities in China. It is recommended to choose bonds with a term of less than 3 years, a yield of over 4%, a subject rating of AA+ or above, and a bond balance of over RMB 300 million or USD 300 million. There are 68 eligible urban investment dim - sum bonds with a total balance of RMB 53.8 billion and 75 US dollar bonds with a total balance of USD 28.2 billion [38]. - **Industrial US Dollar Bonds**: Focus on central and state - owned enterprise bonds, pay attention to the allocation opportunities of US dollar bonds in industries such as petroleum and petrochemicals and public utilities, and avoid weak - quality private enterprise bonds. It is recommended to choose central and state - owned enterprise US dollar bonds with a term of less than 3 years, a yield of over 4%, a subject rating of AA+ or above, a bond balance of over USD 300 million, and in industries such as transportation, public utilities, and petroleum and petrochemicals. There are 39 such bonds with a total balance of USD 26.8 billion [39]. - **Financial US Dollar Bonds**: The issuing entities are mostly state - owned financial institutions, and the bonds are relatively safe and liquid. It is recommended to choose financial US dollar bonds with a term of less than 3 years, a yield of over 4%, a subject rating of AA+ or above, and a bond balance of over USD 300 million. There are 86 such bonds with a total balance of USD 54.2 billion [40].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the automotive industry [4]. Core Insights - The market share of domestic brands in the automotive sector has increased significantly, reaching 70% in April-May 2025, up by 6.1 percentage points year-on-year [7][11]. - Domestic brands have shown stable growth across various price segments, particularly in the high-end market, where they are gaining ground against joint ventures and foreign brands [11]. - The report anticipates that the overall market share of domestic brands will continue to rise, potentially exceeding 70% in 2025, driven by new model launches and competitive pricing strategies [11]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The total market value of the automotive industry is approximately 50,730.05 billion, with a circulating market value of 32,553.74 billion [4]. - The industry comprises 232 listed companies [4]. Sales Performance - In the 0-15 million yuan price segment, domestic brands accounted for 79% of sales, with a year-on-year increase of 1.4 percentage points [3]. - In the 10-15 million yuan segment, domestic brands' market share rose by 2.0% to 73%, significantly impacting Japanese and German brands [3]. - The overall sales volume for the automotive industry in the first five months of 2025 reached 3.7 million units, representing a 29% increase year-on-year [3]. Price Segment Analysis - In the 15-20 million yuan segment, domestic brands accelerated their market share growth to 58%, with a notable increase of 5.8 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - The 20-25 million yuan segment saw domestic brands' share rise to 60%, up by 16.5 percentage points year-on-year, driven by new model releases [3]. - In the 30-40 million yuan segment, domestic brands captured 56% of the market, reflecting a 21 percentage point increase year-on-year [9]. Competitive Landscape - BYD leads the market with a 15% share, followed by Chery and Geely with 9% and 8% respectively [16]. - The report highlights that domestic electric vehicles are increasingly dominating sales across various price segments, with several models ranking as bestsellers [11][35]. Future Outlook - The report suggests that domestic brands are expected to continue their upward trajectory in market share, particularly in the mid to high-end segments, as they enhance their product offerings and competitive pricing [11].

Economic Indicators - The Huachuang Macro WEI index rose to 7.08% as of July 6, 2025, up from 6.00% on June 29, marking an increase of 1.08%[2] - Domestic flight executions increased to 14,400 flights in the first five days of July, a year-on-year increase of 3%[8] - The operating rate of asphalt plants rose to 32.7% as of July 9, 2025, a year-on-year increase of 4.7%[15] Consumer Trends - Retail sales of passenger cars showed a year-on-year increase of 1% as of July 6, down from 3% previously, and June's total was 15%[8] - The sales area of commercial residential properties in 67 cities decreased by 24% year-on-year in the first 11 days of July, compared to a 17.6% decline in June[3] - The land premium rate fell to 4.88% as of July 6, down from 5.47% in June[9] Price Movements - Resource prices continued to rise, with Shanxi thermal coal prices increasing by 1.4%, and rebar prices in Shanghai rising by 1.9%[46] - The national average price of second-hand homes fell by 0.3% as of June 30, with first-tier cities down by 0.2%[47] - The overall price index for agricultural products rose, with vegetable prices increasing by 1.8% and fruit prices by 2.1%[46] Debt and Interest Rates - New special bond issuance accelerated, with 2.39 trillion yuan issued this year, achieving 54.3% of the annual target, compared to 39.3% last year[54] - As of July 11, 2025, the yields on 1-year, 5-year, and 10-year government bonds were 1.3702%, 1.5292%, and 1.6653%, respectively, reflecting increases of 3.4bps, 3.63bps, and 2.2bps from the previous week[67]

Group 1: Employment Policies Overview - The central government has significantly increased investment in the "work-for-relief" policy, with a total of 29.5 billion yuan allocated for 2025, compared to 11.5 billion yuan in 2024 and 5.6 billion yuan in 2020[2]. - The unemployment insurance retention refund ratio has been raised, with large enterprises' refund cap increasing from 30% to 50%, and small and micro enterprises from 60% to 90%, similar to 2022 levels[5]. - The one-time job expansion subsidy has been broadened to include social organizations, with a subsidy of up to 1,500 yuan per person for hiring unemployed youth aged 16-24[7]. Group 2: Specific Policy Details - The "work-for-relief" policy aims to support vulnerable groups, with an expected employment boost of over 700,000 individuals in 2025 due to the increased funding[4]. - In 2024, the "work-for-relief" policy is projected to create approximately 3.32 million jobs, reflecting a 31% year-on-year increase[4]. - The unemployment insurance fund is estimated to generate 197.1 billion yuan in revenue in 2024, with potential refunds to enterprises ranging from 39.4 billion to 59.1 billion yuan due to the increased refund ratios[6]. Group 3: Youth Employment Challenges - The number of college graduates in 2025 is expected to reach 12.22 million, an increase of 430,000 from the previous year, marking a record high[8]. - The youth unemployment rate for those aged 16-24 reached 14.9% in May 2025, higher than the previous year's rate of 14.2%[8].

Investment Strategy - Crude oil supply is expected to remain limited due to declining global oil and gas capital expenditures, with a significant reduction of nearly 122% from 2014 levels to $351 billion in 2021 [9][30][31] - Geopolitical tensions, particularly the Russia-Ukraine conflict, have exacerbated concerns over energy supply, with the EU planning to reduce oil imports from Russia by 90% by the end of 2022 [10][31] - Brent crude oil prices increased to $71.97 per barrel, up 2.95% week-on-week, while WTI prices rose to $67.93 per barrel, up 2.46% [11][32] Coal Industry - The average market price for Qinhuangdao port thermal coal (Q5500) rose to 628 RMB/ton, a 1.06% increase from the previous week, driven by improved demand and trading conditions [12][13] - Coal production is gradually recovering, with total inventory at ports reported at 26.9 million tons, down 2.46% week-on-week, indicating a tightening supply [12][13] - The domestic coal consumption for key power plants increased to 4.88 million tons per day, a 6.09% rise from the previous week, reflecting higher electricity demand due to ongoing high temperatures [12][13] Coking Coal - Coking coal prices have seen a slight increase, with the price for Shanxi main coking coal at 1,350 RMB/ton, up 9.76% week-on-week, as supply conditions improve [14][15] - The overall supply-demand situation for coking coal is improving, with increased orders from steel mills and a decrease in inventory levels [14][15] Natural Gas - The EIA projects that U.S. natural gas production and consumption will reach record highs in 2025, with expected consumption of 91.4 billion cubic feet per day [16][17] - U.S. natural gas prices decreased to $3.33 per million British thermal units, down 2.9% from the previous week, while European gas prices increased [16][17] - The EU has reached an agreement on a natural gas price cap, which may lead to liquidity issues and potential supply shortages [17] Oilfield Services - The oilfield services sector is experiencing a recovery in demand due to increased capital expenditures from major oil companies, which are projected to reach 581.738 billion RMB in 2023, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 6% since 2018 [18][19] - The number of active drilling rigs globally decreased to 1,576, with a notable decline in the Middle East and the U.S. [19]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the automotive industry [3] Core Views - The report highlights that overseas light vehicle sales remained flat year-on-year in May, with a slight month-on-month increase, totaling approximately 4.63 million units, down 0.1% year-on-year and up 2.1% month-on-month [2][6] - It anticipates a decline in overseas light vehicle sales in 2025, projecting a total of 53.97 million units, down 2.0% year-on-year [6][7] - The report suggests a cautious outlook for the second half of the year, particularly in Europe and North America, where sales growth is expected to slow [6][7] Summary by Sections 1. Industry: Sales, Exchange Rates, Freight - Global light vehicle sales in May were approximately 7.15 million units, up 3.8% year-on-year and 3.0% month-on-month, with overseas sales at about 4.63 million units [6] - North America saw sales of 1.78 million units in May, up 2.3% year-on-year, while Europe recorded 1.41 million units, down 2.2% year-on-year [6][7] - The report notes that global electric vehicle sales reached approximately 1.75 million units in May, up 31% year-on-year [6][7] 2. Market Competition - The report provides insights into the competitive landscape, indicating that major automakers like Toyota, Volkswagen, and BYD are leading in global sales [32][39] - It highlights the market share changes among the top ten automakers, with significant movements noted in the electric vehicle segment [32][39] 3. Automotive and Parts Company Export Situation - The report discusses the export performance of domestic automotive manufacturers, noting a monthly growth rate in export delivery values [42] - It emphasizes the importance of overseas revenue for certain automotive parts companies, with several companies reporting over 10% of their revenue from international markets [41]

Report Information - Report Title: [Bond Weekly Report] Certificate of Deposit Weekly Report (0707 - 0713): Near 1.65%, Focus on Allocation Value [1] - Report Date: July 14, 2025 [1] - Research Institution: Huachuang Securities Research Institute [1] - Analysts: Zhou Guannan, Song Qi [1] 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Season - end wealth management allocation overdraws the early - season market. When the 1y national and joint - stock bank certificates of deposit are slightly priced up and approach 1.65%, their allocation cost - effectiveness can be considered [2][53]. 3. Summary by Directory Supply: Net financing decline and shortening of term structure - This week (July 7 - July 13), the issuance scale of certificates of deposit was 42.713 billion yuan, and the net financing was - 8.339 billion yuan (from June 30 to July 6, it was - 0.282 billion yuan). The issuance proportion of state - owned banks increased from 19% to 25%, and that of joint - stock banks decreased from 40% to 23%. The issuance proportion of 1Y certificates of deposit decreased from 73% to 58%. The weighted issuance term of certificates of deposit narrowed to 8.88 months (the previous value was 9.75 months) [2][5]. - Next week (July 14 - July 20), the maturity scale will rise to 80.281 billion yuan, a weekly increase of 29.229 billion yuan. The maturities are mainly concentrated in state - owned banks, joint - stock banks, and city commercial banks. From a term perspective, the maturity amounts of 3M and 1Y certificates of deposit are relatively high, at 19.916 billion yuan and 41.892 billion yuan respectively, with 20.389 billion yuan maturing on the 17th [2][5]. Demand: State - owned banks increase allocation, and the primary market subscription rate declines - In the secondary market, state - owned banks and wealth management are the main allocators, with weekly net purchases of 5.4403 billion yuan and 6.8292 billion yuan respectively. The net sales of money market funds increased from 4.4696 billion yuan to 10.131 billion yuan [2][16]. - In the primary market, the overall market subscription rate (15DMA) declined to around 91%. Among different institutions, the subscription rate of city commercial banks decreased from 87% to 84%, that of joint - stock banks decreased from 92% to 90%, state - owned banks maintained at 95%, and rural commercial banks maintained at 97% [16]. Valuation: Slight upward movement in primary and secondary pricing - Primary pricing: As funds tightened around the middle of the month, the pricing of joint - stock bank certificates of deposit increased. Specifically, the 1M variety increased by 4bp, 3M and 9M increased by 2bp, 6M increased by 1bp, and 1Y increased by 4bp. The 1Y - 3M term spread of joint - stock banks widened by 2bp, at the 19% historical quantile. The 1Y spread between city commercial banks and joint - stock banks narrowed from 12.03BP to 8.13BP, and that between rural commercial banks and joint - stock banks widened from 4.37BP to 5.99BP [2][20]. - Secondary yield: The secondary yields of AAA - rated certificates of deposit increased. The 1M variety increased by 2bp, 3M increased by 3bp, and 6M, 9M, and 1Y increased by 4bp. The 1Y - 3M term spread of AAA - rated certificates of deposit slightly widened, maintaining at the 17% historical quantile [2]. Comparison: Near 1.65%, focus on allocation value - The spread between medium - short - term notes and certificates of deposit significantly compressed. The spread between the 1y AAA - rated certificate of deposit yield and the DR007:15DMA funds widened from 1.15BP to 6.49BP; the spread with R007:15DMA funds remained inverted, narrowing from - 8.47BP to - 2.44BP. The 1y treasury bond yield widened by 3.40bp, and the spread between certificates of deposit and treasury bonds slightly widened to 26.01BP, with the quantile rising from 6% to 7%. The spread between certificates of deposit and China Development Bank bonds slightly narrowed from 14.69BP to 13.57BP, and the quantile dropped to around 7%. The spread between AAA medium - short - term notes and certificates of deposit narrowed from 8.62BP to 4.30BP, and the quantile dropped to 15% [2][35].

Group 1: Immigration Statistics - As of the end of 2024, the estimated number of illegal immigrants in the U.S. is approximately 12.8 to 15.2 million, contributing about 8.5 to 10 million to the labor force assuming a labor participation rate of 66.3%[3][13]. - From February to June this year, the number of deportations was less than 100,000, accounting for only 0.7-0.8% of the total illegal immigrant population[4][15]. - Between January and May this year, the number of illegal immigrants encountered at the southwestern border was approximately 108,700, representing a decrease of 88% compared to the same period in 2024[4][17]. Group 2: Changes in Public Attitude Towards Immigration - The percentage of Americans wanting to reduce immigration has dropped from 55% in June last year to 30% in June this year, with significant declines across all political parties[5][19]. - Currently, 79% of American adults believe immigration is beneficial to the country, the highest level since 2001[5][25]. - Support for providing a pathway to citizenship for undocumented immigrants has increased from 70% last year to 78% this year, while support for deporting all undocumented immigrants has decreased from 47% to 38%[6][29].