Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for high dividend and stable performance assets in the transportation sector, indicating that it is an opportune time for allocation in transportation dividend assets [2]. Core Insights - The transportation sector has shown strong performance in October 2025, outperforming the CSI 300 index, with highways and ports leading the gains [5][11]. - The low interest rate environment continues to support the sector, with stable government bond yields [21]. - The report highlights the potential for high dividend yields in A/H shares, with specific recommendations for companies like Sichuan Chengyu and Wutong Expressway [5][18]. Monthly Market Performance - In October 2025, the transportation sector rose by 1.46%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 4.18 percentage points, ranking 5th among 31 sectors [10]. - The performance of dividend assets (highways, railways, ports) was particularly strong, with highways up 4.48%, railways up 0.33%, and ports up 3.05% from October 1 to October 17 [11][14]. Industry Data - Highway passenger volume in August 2025 was 950 million, down 5.1% year-on-year, while freight volume increased by 3.9% [29]. - Railway passenger volume in September 2025 was 341 million, a slight decrease of 0.2% year-on-year, but cumulative volume for the year increased by 6% [40]. - Port cargo throughput for the first eight months of 2025 reached 1.2 billion tons, up 4.4% year-on-year, with container throughput also showing strong growth [49][51]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high dividend yield stocks in the transportation sector, particularly in highways and ports, with specific companies highlighted for their strong performance and dividend potential [5][18]. - Key recommendations include Sichuan Chengyu (6.3% dividend yield), China Merchants Port (5.9%), and Anhui Wantong Expressway (5.2%) [20].

Group 1: Liquidity and Fund Flow - The net inflow of industry ETFs reached 17.04 billion, marking a three-year high[8] - Southbound funds have accumulated a net inflow of over 560 billion in the past five months[2] - The net inflow of leveraged funds turned negative, with a net outflow of 14 billion last week[14] Group 2: Market Trends and Investor Sentiment - The Shanghai Composite Index opened down 2.5% on October 13 due to escalating US-China trade tensions, leading to a surge in A-share search interest[2] - Retail investor net inflow reached 191.15 billion, an increase of 108.94 billion from the previous value, placing it in the 92.9 percentile over the past five years[2] - The public fund issuance increased significantly, with 5.65 billion shares newly issued last week, compared to 0.85 billion previously[10] Group 3: Trading Activity and Sector Performance - The trading heat for the machinery sector rose by 28 percentage points to 50%, while the healthcare sector dropped by 22 percentage points to 43%[7] - The net inflow in the non-ferrous metals sector was 6.09 billion, while the electronics sector saw a net outflow of 7.19 billion[23] - The overall net inflow of stock ETFs was 26.08 billion, with thematic ETFs contributing 24.55 billion[24]

Group 1: Inbound Consumption Growth - Inbound consumption is expected to grow by over 40% this year, contributing approximately 0.2 percentage points to the annual retail sales growth[1] - By 2024, inbound tourists are projected to reach 132 million, with total spending of $94.2 billion, recovering to 97.2% and 93.5% of 2019 levels respectively[1] - The average spending per inbound tourist in 2024 is estimated at $714, slightly below the 2019 figure of $742[1] Group 2: Policy Support and Impact - The expansion of visa-free access has increased the number of countries with unilateral visa exemptions to 47, leading to a 52.1% increase in visa-free inbound tourists[3] - The optimization of tax refund policies has resulted in a 97.5% increase in sales of tax-refunded goods, with the number of beneficiaries rising 2.5 times[3] - The expected increase in inbound consumption this year is estimated at around 263.8 billion RMB, which is about 0.2 percentage points of the total retail sales[4] Group 3: Future Projections - In 2025, inbound tourist numbers and total spending are likely to see double-digit growth, surpassing 2019 levels[2] - The inbound consumption's share of GDP is projected to be around 0.5% in 2024, compared to 1% to 3% in major global economies, indicating significant growth potential[4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current round of Sino-US trade conflict heated up in October, but high tariffs may not last long. The market is relatively stable in sentiment, and the callback disturbance is limited. [3][6] - The demand - side support for convertible bonds remains. ETF funds in the convertible bond market are stronger than in April, catalyzing relatively firm valuations. [3][8] - There are structural differentiations in the convertible bond market. High - parity convertible bond valuations are compressed, and the market preference has shifted to the financial sector. [3] - Attention should be paid to the structural opportunities of convertible bonds, especially high - parity equity - biased varieties with large pullbacks and medium - and low - rated varieties that have corrected this time. [3] Summary According to the Directory I. Tariffs Rise Again, but Disturbance May Be Controllable - The Sino - US trade conflict heated up in October with frictions in multiple aspects. High tariffs may not last long and are mainly for bargaining chips. The market is relatively stable with over 90% probability that tariffs won't be implemented on November 1st and about 80% probability of a tariff agreement before November 10th. [3][6] - Market expectations are stable, and the callback disturbance is limited. The market performance after the restart of tariff disturbances was better than in April, and the VIX index was lower. [3][8] - The demand - side support for convertible bonds remains. The combined share of relevant ETFs increased by 41.49% compared to April 7th, catalyzing relatively firm valuations. [3][8] - There are structural differentiations in the convertible bond market. High - parity convertible bond valuations are compressed, and the market preference has shifted to the financial sector. Bank convertible bond prices rose by 1.6% from October 9th to October 17th, outperforming the convertible bond index by 3.9pct. [3][12] - Attention should be paid to the structural opportunities of convertible bonds. The median convertible bond price is around 130 yuan, and the 100 - yuan premium rate fluctuates at 30%. There may be opportunities in high - parity equity - biased varieties and medium - and low - rated varieties. [3][13] II. Market Review: Weekly Callback of Convertible Bonds, Slight Compression of Valuations (1) Weekly Market Quotes: Convertible Bond Market Callback, Weak Performance in Each Sector - Last week, major stock indexes performed weakly. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.47%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 4.99%, the ChiNext Index fell 5.71%, the SSE 50 Index fell 0.24%, the CSI 1000 Index fell 4.62%, and the CSI Convertible Bond Index fell 2.35%. [15] - There are 418 issued and unexpired convertible bonds with a balance of 5752.81 billion yuan. Yingliu Convertible Bonds will be listed on October 22nd. [15] - In the equity market, most industries performed weakly last week. Only the banking, food and beverage, and transportation industries rose. In the convertible bond market, most also declined, with only environmental protection and banking rising. [17] (2) Valuation Performance: High - Rating and Large - Scale Convertible Bond Premium Rates Compressed More - The weighted average closing price of convertible bonds was 129.46 yuan, a 2.30% decline from the previous Friday. The closing prices of equity - biased, debt - biased, and balanced convertible bonds all decreased. The proportion of the 110 - 120 (including 120) price range increased significantly. [22] - The median price was 129.36 yuan, a 2.27% decline from the previous Friday. The 100 - yuan par - value fitted conversion premium rate was 29.74%, a 0.62pct decline from the previous Friday. [22] - High - rating and large - scale convertible bond premium rates compressed more. The AAA rating declined 1.93pct, and the premium rate of convertible bonds over 5 billion yuan declined 1.76pct. The 120 - 130 (including 130) yuan par - value range declined 5.85pct. [22] III. Terms and Supply: 5 Convertible Bonds Announced Early Redemption, Total Pending Issuance Scale About 8.9 Billion (1) Terms: 5 Convertible Bonds Announced Early Redemption Last Week, No Convertible Bond Board Proposed Downward Revision - As of October 17th, Hengbang, Sheng 24, Chenfeng, Changji, and Nuitai Convertible Bonds announced early redemption; Mengsheng, Tairui, Xinzhi, Huicheng, and Yanpai Convertible Bonds announced no early redemption; Shenma, Tongcheng, Fuchun, Youfa, Zhonghuan Zhuan 2, and Youcai Convertible Bonds announced that they were expected to meet the early redemption conditions. [1][43] - As of October 17th, no convertible bond announced a downward - revision proposal last week. Zhengchuan Convertible Bonds announced the downward - revision result. Nine convertible bonds announced no downward revision, and seven were expected to trigger downward revision. [1][43] (2) Primary Market: Yingliu Convertible Bonds to Be Listed Soon, Total Pending Issuance Scale About 8.9 Billion - Last week, Jinlang Zhuan 02 and Funeng Convertible Bonds were issued, with a total scale of 5.479 billion yuan. Yingliu Convertible Bonds will be listed this week, with a scale of 1.5 billion yuan. [1][46] - Last week, 3 companies had new board proposals, 1 company passed the shareholders' meeting, no company passed the CSRC review committee, and 2 companies got CSRC approval, compared with +3, +1, - 1, +2 respectively compared to the same period last year. [1][47] - As of October 17th, 3 listed companies got convertible bond issuance approvals with a proposed issuance scale of 2.322 billion yuan. Six companies passed the CSRC review committee with a total scale of 3.983 billion yuan. Three new board proposals last week included Zhongqi Co., Ltd., Mankun Technology, and Huatong Cable, with a total scale of 2.599 billion yuan. [2][53]

Domestic Policy Changes - The Ministry of Finance announced a new local government debt limit of 500 billion yuan, an increase of 100 billion yuan compared to last year[2] - The total available investment for the fourth quarter is nearly 1 trillion yuan, combining the new debt limit and previously announced fiscal tools[2] International Relations - A video call was held between Chinese and U.S. officials to discuss further economic negotiations, indicating ongoing communication despite trade tensions[3][10] - The Chinese government maintains a firm stance on trade disputes, emphasizing readiness for both negotiation and confrontation[3][12] Upcoming Events - The 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session will take place from October 20-23, focusing on the "14th Five-Year Plan" recommendations[4] - The National People's Congress Standing Committee will meet from October 24-28 to review financial reports and asset management for 2024[4] Risk Factors - There is a risk of delayed policy updates, which could impact market expectations and economic stability[5]

Group 1: Recent Events and Market Reactions - The S&P Regional Banking Select Industry Index fell by 6.3% on October 16, marking its largest drop since April, triggered by loan fraud disclosures from Zions Bancorp and Western Alliance Bancorp[3] - Following the fraud disclosures, the market's risk sentiment was negatively impacted, leading to a decline in regional bank stocks and a widening of credit spreads[5] - The market showed signs of stabilization on October 17, with a rebound of 1.7% in the S&P Regional Banking Index, indicating a potential recovery in market sentiment[21] Group 2: Assessment of Crisis Potential - The recent events are viewed as isolated incidents related to specific borrowers rather than a systemic credit crisis, with the overall impact considered manageable[4] - The financial exposure from the Tricolor bankruptcy is estimated to result in losses of several hundred million dollars for JPMorgan and Fifth Third Bancorp, while First Brands' debt reached approximately $11.6 billion[4] - Zions Bancorp and Western Alliance Bancorp are pursuing approximately $160 million in loans related to the fraud incidents, which is relatively small compared to previous crises[20] Group 3: Comparison with Previous Crises - Unlike the Silicon Valley Bank crisis, which involved total assets of $211.8 billion and significant unrealized losses, the current incidents involve much smaller scales, estimated at around $1 billion[30] - The nature of the current issues is primarily credit risk related to commercial loans, contrasting with the liquidity crisis seen in the Silicon Valley Bank case[31] - Current macroeconomic conditions differ, with the Federal Reserve in a rate-cutting cycle and a lower recession probability of 33%, compared to a 65% probability during the Silicon Valley Bank crisis[31] Group 4: Analyst Perspectives and Future Monitoring - Analysts generally view the recent defaults as isolated events, with some caution expressed by JPMorgan's CEO regarding potential losses in the credit market[9] - Key indicators to monitor include the stock prices of affected banks, credit spreads, liquidity conditions, and the U.S. Financial Conditions Index, which may lag in reflecting economic fundamentals[10] - The financial conditions index has shown signs of improvement after an initial deterioration, indicating a potential easing of financial stress in the market[60]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the media industry, focusing on high-performing sectors such as gaming and IP industries [1][3]. Core Insights - The media sector is currently experiencing a downturn, with the media index down 6.27% last week, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 4.05% [9][10]. - The gaming market shows resilience, with major titles like "Honor of Kings" consistently ranking at the top of iOS sales charts, indicating a stable demand [15][16]. - The IP industry is thriving, with successful exhibitions and strong performance from key companies, suggesting continued growth potential [6][28]. - The film market is recovering, with total box office revenue reaching 39.725 billion yuan, approximately 79% of the 2019 levels, indicating a positive trend in audience engagement [18][20]. Market Performance Review - The media index's absolute performance over the last month is 3.1%, with a 12-month performance of 72.0% [4]. - The gaming sector is highlighted for its high growth potential, with recommendations to focus on companies like Tencent and Huya [6][28]. - The film market's recovery is evidenced by a significant increase in box office revenue and audience numbers compared to previous years [18][20]. Industry News and Company Announcements - AI advancements are being integrated into various platforms, enhancing content creation capabilities, which could benefit media companies [28][30]. - Key companies in the gaming sector are launching new titles, indicating ongoing innovation and competition in the market [18][30]. - The report emphasizes the importance of strategic acquisitions and partnerships for companies to enhance their market position and growth prospects [32][33].

Investment Strategy - The report emphasizes the strategic importance of Xinjiang in the context of national policies, highlighting its transition from a geographical hinterland to a frontline hub due to the Belt and Road Initiative. This shift positions Xinjiang as a key player in energy security and coal chemical industry development [7][8] - The report identifies two main investment themes: coal chemical investments and state-owned enterprise reforms in Xinjiang. It suggests that the external environment for coal chemical development is now favorable, driven by rising coal prices and the need for energy security [7][10] Xinjiang Index Situation - The Xinjiang index stands at 125.47, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 3.43%. The coal chemical investment index is at 122.27, down 7.19%, while the state-owned enterprise reform index is at 130.68, down 0.61% [14] - The report lists the top gainers and losers in the market, with Huijia Times (603101.SH) up 13.82% and Guangdong Hongda (002683.SZ) down 12.21% [14] Key Data Tracking - Key prices in Xinjiang include Q5000 mixed coal at 100 CNY/ton, Q5200 mixed coal at 215 CNY/ton, and urea at 1430 CNY/ton, with a price difference of -130 CNY/ton compared to Shandong [18][27] - In September 2025, coal railway shipments from state-owned key coal mines reached 3.109 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.77%, while the raw coal production in August was 42.2 million tons, down 2.18% year-on-year [18][30] Key News and Company Announcements - On October 14, a key evaluation meeting for the Xinjiang New Industry Group's 2 billion cubic meters/year coal-to-natural gas project was held, marking a significant step towards project approval and construction [33][37] - Several other coal chemical projects are progressing, including a 60,000 tons/year synthetic gas ethanol project and a 1.5 million tons/year coal clean utilization project, indicating a robust pipeline of developments in the sector [36][37] Overview of Target Companies - The report suggests focusing on companies involved in coal chemical investments in Xinjiang, such as Tebian Electric Apparatus, Jiufeng Energy, and Baofeng Energy, as well as service providers and local state-owned enterprises that may benefit from ongoing reforms [11][12][40]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Credit bonds showed a compensatory rise this week, with most yields declining and credit spreads narrowing. The market is expected to consolidate around the 1.75% level, and investors can focus on adding positions in 4 - 5y bonds with spreads above the central level [5][10]. - The marginal release of negative factors in the bond market, with the main negative disturbances being the implementation of the fund sales fee policy and potential short - term increases in risk appetite. The attractiveness of medium - and long - term bonds with wider credit spreads has increased [5][10]. - The allocation power of funds for 3 - 5y credit bonds has recovered. The 4 - 5y bonds are cost - effective, and the narrowing of spreads is expected, but it may be difficult to reach the lows of July - August [2][14]. - For bonds over 5y, although the yields are high, caution is needed as they test the stability of the liability side. Institutions with stable liability sides can capture allocation opportunities, while those with weak liability sides should participate with small positions [3][23]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Credit Strategy: 4 - 5y Bond Spreads Are Still Above the Central Level, and Positions Can Be Appropriately Added 3.1.1 Credit Bond Market Review: Yields Generally Declined, and Credit Spreads Generally Narrowed - This week, credit bonds compensated for the rise, with most yields declining and credit spreads narrowing. The capital price remained low, and the bond market was affected by various factors such as Sino - US tariff games, the stock - bond seesaw effect, and the new regulations on public fund sales fees, showing a volatile trend. Institutions had a good allocation sentiment for credit bonds, and credit performance was better than interest - rate products [9]. 3.1.2 Outlook for the Future: Negative Factors Are Marginally Released, and Attention Should Be Paid to the Opportunity to Add Positions in 4 - 5y Bonds - The 10y Treasury bond's volatility center has moved down due to tariff shocks, and the market may consolidate around 1.75%. The negative factors in the bond market are marginally released, and the main negative disturbances are the implementation of the fund sales fee policy and potential short - term increases in risk appetite. The attractiveness of 4 - 5y bonds with spreads above the central level has increased [5][10]. 3.2 Key Policies and Hot Events: The New Policy - Based Financial Instruments in This Round Have Exceeded One Billion, and the Chairman of Vanke Has Changed - The Ministry of Finance will continue to issue in advance the new local government debt quota for 2026, which can be used for project construction, resolving implicit debts, and solving government arrears to enterprises [24]. - The first - phase funds of new policy - based financial instruments in 12 provinces have exceeded 1.1 billion, with local state - owned enterprises as the main recipients, including many urban investment companies [24]. - Xin Jie resigned as the chairman of Vanke, and Huang Liping took over. Vanke's bond valuation has fluctuated recently, and attention should be paid to Shenzhen Metro's support and debt - resolution plans [25]. - The Ministry of Finance has issued a quota of 28 billion yuan for Hebei Province to replace implicit debts in 2026, which is currently awaiting allocation [25]. - Beijing has issued a plan to strengthen the role of the capital market in supporting scientific and technological innovation, including creating a "Zhongguancun Science and Technology Board" for bonds and supporting eligible projects to issue REITs [26]. 3.3 Secondary Market: Credit Bond Yields Generally Declined, and Credit Spreads Generally Narrowed - This week, credit bond yields generally declined, and credit spreads generally narrowed. For different types of bonds such as urban investment bonds, real - estate bonds, cyclical bonds, and financial bonds, most yields declined and spreads narrowed, with some individual varieties showing different trends [29]. 3.4 Primary Market: The Net Financing of Credit Bonds and Urban Investment Bonds Increased Month - on - Month - This week, the issuance of credit bonds was 418.1 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 341.9 billion yuan, and the net financing was 184.7 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 295 billion yuan. The net financing of urban investment bonds was 22 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 89.9 billion yuan [6]. 3.5 Trading Liquidity: The Trading Activity in the Inter - bank and Exchange Markets of Credit Bonds Increased - This week, the trading activity in both the inter - bank and exchange markets of credit bonds increased [6]. 3.6 Rating Adjustments: No Rating Upgrades or Downgrades This Week - There were no rating upgrades or downgrades of bond issuers this week [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating on the automotive sector, particularly focusing on robotics as the main investment theme for Q4 [3][4]. Core Insights - The automotive market remains optimistic despite short-term adjustments and concerns over US-China trade tensions. The bullish trend is expected to continue, with robotics being a key investment focus [4]. - The report highlights several catalysts that could drive future growth, including Tesla's product iterations, North American giants' market entry, domestic star companies' expansions, and supportive industrial subsidy policies [4]. Data Tracking - In early October, the discount rate slightly decreased to 9.5%, with a discount amount of 21,384 yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2,937 yuan [6]. - The report tracks various automotive components and companies, recommending several key players in the automotive parts and robotics sectors, including Minth Group, Top Group, and others [8]. Industry News - In September, the retail sales of passenger cars reached 2.241 million units, a year-on-year increase of 6.3%, with cumulative sales for the year reaching 17.004 million units, up 9% [33]. - The report notes that the production and sales of automobiles in September exceeded 3 million units for the first time in history, with year-on-year growth rates remaining above 10% for five consecutive months [33][34]. - The report also mentions significant developments in the electric vehicle sector, with domestic brands accounting for 59.5% of electric vehicle exports in the first three quarters [33].