Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Huaxia Airlines, expecting it to outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next six months [2][19]. Core Views - The company is projected to achieve a net profit of 2.55 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of approximately 875% [1]. - The report emphasizes the continuous improvement in the company's operations, driven by a decrease in oil prices, which is expected to reduce costs and sustain profitability [2]. - The target price for the stock is set at 11.3 yuan, indicating a potential upside of 31% from the current price of 8.65 yuan [2][3]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2025, the expected total revenue is 8.112 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 21.1% [3]. - The projected net profit for 2025 is 717 million yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year growth of 167.6% [3]. - Earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at 0.56 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 15 times [3]. Operational Data Summary - In the first half of 2025, Huaxia Airlines is expected to operate an average of 382 flights per day, a year-on-year increase of 19.9% [8]. - The average aircraft utilization rate improved to 7 hours per day, an increase of 0.6 hours compared to the previous year [8]. - The company has been actively optimizing its route network to meet the changing travel demands, which has contributed to an increase in passenger load factors [8].

Group 1: Macro Overview - In June 2025, new social financing (社融) reached 4.20 trillion, up from 2.29 trillion previously, with a year-on-year growth of 8.9% compared to 8.7% before[1] - M2 growth was 8.3% year-on-year, an increase from 7.9% previously, while new M1 (新口径) grew by 4.6% compared to 2.3% before[1] - The current market logic reflects a "look at stocks, act like bonds" approach rather than a dual bull market for stocks and bonds, primarily driven by the relocation of household deposits[1] Group 2: Liquidity and Policy Implications - The current liquidity easing is mainly driven by policy rather than economic improvement, leading to strong market expectations for further central bank easing[2] - The central bank's probability of further easing is decreasing unless triggered by significant adverse economic events or market shocks[2] - Future central bank actions may focus more on structural adjustments rather than broad monetary easing, aiming to stabilize liquidity in both stock and bond markets[2] Group 3: Financial Data Insights - In June, corporate loans increased by 1.77 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 1.4 trillion, while household loans rose by 597.6 billion[1] - The social financing scale in June showed an increase of 4.2 trillion, with a year-on-year growth of 8.9%, reflecting a significant rise in government bond issuance[1] - The total amount of deposits increased by 3.21 trillion in June, with household deposits rising by 2.47 trillion, indicating a strong inflow into the banking system[1]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended," indicating an expected increase in the industry index by more than 5% over the next 3-6 months compared to the benchmark index [25]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in social financing scale, with June's new social financing reaching 4.2 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 900.8 billion yuan, and a social financing stock growth rate of 8.9%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month [2][6]. - New RMB loans in June amounted to 2.24 trillion yuan, an increase of 110 billion yuan year-on-year, primarily driven by strong short-term loans, especially from enterprises [6][7]. - The report emphasizes the importance of the banking sector's configuration opportunities, suggesting that overall positions in banks are likely to increase due to medium to long-term capital inflows and public fund reforms [6][7]. Summary by Sections Financial Data Overview - In June, the new social financing scale was 4.2 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 900.8 billion yuan, and the social financing stock growth rate reached 8.9% [2][6]. - New RMB loans totaled 2.24 trillion yuan in June, with a year-on-year increase of 110 billion yuan, indicating a recovery in short-term loans [6][7]. Credit and Financing Trends - The report notes that credit has reversed its weakening trend from the second quarter, supported mainly by short-term loans to enterprises and improvements in household short-term loans [6][7]. - The increase in M1 growth rate to 4.6% in June and M2 growth rate rising to 8.3% reflects enhanced liquidity in the market [6][7]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the banking sector for investment, highlighting the ongoing mid-term investment value of major banks and the potential for absolute returns from banks with high dividend yields and strong asset quality [6][7]. - Specific banks to watch include state-owned large banks and stable joint-stock banks like China Merchants Bank and CITIC Bank, as well as regional banks with high provisioning coverage [6][7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the company, indicating an expectation of outperforming the benchmark index by 10%-20% over the next six months [18]. Core Insights - The company is projected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of approximately 7.95 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 151% [1]. - The second quarter of 2025 is expected to see a net profit of around 4.38 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 127% [1]. - The company continues to strengthen its market position in traditional routes such as Shanghai-Japan and Shanghai-Taiwan, while also expanding its operations in Southeast Asia, contributing to significant profit growth [7]. Financial Performance - For 2025, the total revenue is estimated at 6.773 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 13.5% [3]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 is projected to be 1.243 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 21.8% compared to 2024 [3]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is expected to be 0.96 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 12 [3]. Market Performance - The China Container Freight Index (CCFI) for Japan and Southeast Asia showed a year-on-year increase of 29% in the first half of 2025, while the Taiwan Freight Index (TWFI) increased by 26% [2]. - In the second quarter of 2025, CCFI for Japan rose by 33%, and TWFI for Taiwan increased by 30% [2]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests an upward revision of the company's net profit forecasts for 2025-2027, now estimated at 12.4 billion, 10.5 billion, and 10.5 billion yuan respectively [7]. - The target price for the company's stock is set at 14.4 yuan, indicating a potential upside of 25% from the current price of 11.50 yuan [3][7].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In June 2025, credit performance was not weak, with corporate short - term loans being the main support and bills "yielding space" for credit. Supported by government bond issuance, the social financing growth rate remained high. Due to the low - base effect after the ban on manual interest supplements last year and corporate sector's redemption of wealth management products, M1 and M2 growth rates rebounded significantly [1][8]. Summary by Related Catalogs Credit: Bills "Yield Space" to Corporate Short - term Loans - **Resident Sector**: In June, resident short - term loans increased by 26.21 billion yuan, 1.5 billion yuan more than the same period last year, rebounding from the previous month due to the shopping festival effect. Resident medium - and long - term credit increased by 33.53 billion yuan, 1.51 billion yuan more than the same period last year. However, the year - on - year growth rate of the commercial housing transaction area in 30 large and medium - sized cities was - 8.6%, with the decline rate expanding compared to the previous month, indicating a weaker sprint than last year [1][12]. - **Corporate Sector**: In June, corporate medium - and long - term loans increased by 1.01 trillion yuan, 40 billion yuan more than the same period last year, and the growth rate remained around 7.1%. Corporate short - term loans increased significantly, with an increase of 1.16 trillion yuan, 490 billion yuan more than the same period last year. Bill financing decreased by 410.9 billion yuan, 317.6 billion yuan less than the same period last year [2][14][20]. Social Financing: Government Bonds Still Provide Support, and Corporate Bond Issuance Willingness Continues - **Government Bonds**: In June, government bond issuance was large, with an increase of 1.35 trillion yuan, 503.2 billion yuan more than the same period last year. According to the current issuance plan, government bonds may still support social financing in July, with a net financing of about 1.4 trillion yuan and a year - on - year increase of about 700 billion yuan. From August to the end of the year, it may turn to a year - on - year decrease [3][23]. - **Corporate Bonds**: In June, corporate bond issuance was still strong, with an increase of 24.22 billion yuan, 3.22 billion yuan more than the same period last year. The new policy on science and technology innovation bonds may drive corporate bond financing. Unaccepted bills decreased by 18.99 billion yuan, close to the same period last year and at a seasonal low, indicating a continuous conversion from off - balance - sheet bills to on - balance - sheet [3][27]. Deposits: End - of - Quarter Deposit Rush, Significant Increase in M1 and M2 Growth Rates - **M1**: In June, the new - caliber M1 increased by 5 trillion yuan, 2.6 trillion yuan more than the same period in 2024, at a seasonally high level. The year - on - year growth rate rose from 2.3% to 4.6% [4][30]. - **M2**: Among the M2 components, non - bank deposits were significantly lower than the seasonal level, while corporate deposits increased significantly as the main support. Corporate customers' redemption of wealth management products helped banks boost general deposits at the end of the quarter. In June, inter - bank deposits decreased by 520 billion yuan, 340 billion yuan less than the same period in 2024. Corporate deposits increased by 1.7773 trillion yuan, 777.3 billion yuan more than last year. After the cross - quarter in July, corporate sector deposits may flow out, disturbing the bank's liability side [4][35].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the wind power industry, indicating an expected increase in the industry index by more than 5% over the next 3-6 months compared to the benchmark index [1][37]. Core Insights - The report highlights significant developments in the wind power sector, including a total of 1.4GW of wind turbine bids this week, with 0.6GW for offshore wind and an average winning bid price of 1793 yuan/kW for onshore wind [1][10][16]. - As of July 11, 2025, the total bidding for wind power projects this year reached 46.5GW, with offshore and onshore projects accounting for 4.2GW and 42.3GW, respectively [10][18]. - The report emphasizes three main investment themes: high reserve projects for offshore wind, robust bidding for onshore wind in 2024, and significant growth in overseas installations [20][23]. Summary by Sections Wind Turbine Data - This week saw 0.6GW of offshore wind bidding initiated in Shandong, with a total of 1.4GW of wind turbines bid, including 0.8GW for onshore projects [10][16]. - The average winning bid price for onshore wind turbines was reported at 1793 yuan/kW, with major manufacturers exceeding 1300 yuan/kW [16][18]. Offshore Wind Progress - As of July 11, 2025, there are 71GW of offshore wind projects in various stages, with significant reserves in provinces like Guangdong and Shandong [18][22]. - Recent developments include the completion of foundation piling for a 504MW project in Shandong and a 900MW project in Guangxi with a bid amount of 820 million yuan [18][22]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three investment lines: high reserve offshore wind projects, increased bidding for onshore wind, and growth in overseas installations [20][23]. - Recommended companies include Mingyang Smart Energy, Oriental Cable, Zhongtian Technology, and others involved in the wind power supply chain [20][23].

Liquidity - The net inflow of leveraged funds remains high, with a net inflow of 225 billion CNY in margin financing, placing it in the 87th percentile over the past three years[8] - Southbound funds have maintained a weekly average net inflow of over 10 billion CNY for the past two months, totaling nearly 150 billion CNY[7] - Stock-type ETFs have seen a turnaround with a net inflow of 3 million CNY, compared to a previous outflow of 236 billion CNY[21] Trading Congestion - The trading heat for the construction materials sector increased by 39 percentage points to 49%, while the photovoltaic sector rose by 32 percentage points to 54%[54] - The steel sector's trading heat increased by 25 percentage points to 51%, while the non-ferrous metals sector decreased by 8 percentage points to 23%[54] - The chemical sector's trading heat fell by 6 percentage points to 72%, and the media sector decreased by 6 percentage points to 64%[54] Investor Sentiment - Retail investors saw a net inflow of 887.1 billion CNY, an increase of 35.4 billion CNY from the previous value, placing it in the 40.3 percentile over the past five years[83] - The net inflow of financing funds was 225.3 billion CNY, up by 99.3 billion CNY from the previous week[2] - The market experienced fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index retreating from a high on July 11, leading to increased search interest in self-media platforms like Kuaishou and Douyin[5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In June, exports more fully reflected the positive impact of the Sino - US negotiation easing. In the short term, the export resilience remains and the July reading may be decent. In the medium term, there is high uncertainty in tariff policies after mid - August, and the overall exports in the second half of the year may face a slowdown risk. The bond market may focus more on domestic policy responses, and the disturbance of the "broad credit" sentiment in the third quarter may increase[6][33] - In June, the import growth rate turned positive, mainly due to the low - base effect and price improvement. However, the import volume of upstream energy products weakened and the growth rate of downstream automobile imports slowed down, indicating that domestic demand still needs policy support. The data verification in the third quarter is crucial, and policies may be strengthened to stabilize demand[6][38] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Export: The Logic of "Rushing to Export" Strengthens, and Transit Trade Cools Down - **Overall Situation**: In June, the export growth rate was +5.8%, 1 percentage point higher than that in May. The export in June more fully reflected the positive impact of the Sino - US trade negotiation easing in mid - May. The "rushing to export" logic continued to support export resilience, and the appreciation of the RMB also boosted the export reading[5][9][18] - **By Commodity Type** - **Labor - Intensive Consumer Goods**: The year - on - year decline of exports of four types of non - durable consumer goods (clothing, footwear, luggage, and toys) narrowed to around 0%, with a month - on - month increase of 11.2%. Toys performed strongly, possibly reflecting the pre - release of the peak export season for Christmas supplies[2][20] - **Intermediate Goods for Production**: The combined year - on - year growth of five types of intermediate goods (plastic products, steel, aluminum, integrated circuits, and general equipment) was +12.2%, driving export growth by 1.4 percentage points. In the short term, intermediate goods exports are expected to maintain high growth[2][21] - **Durable Consumer Goods**: The combined drag of mobile phones and laptops on exports was about 0.4 percentage points, an improvement from May. The contribution of automobile exports increased for three consecutive months, driving June's export growth by 0.5 percentage points[2][24] - **By Country** - **Developed Economies**: In June, the year - on - year decline of exports to the US narrowed by 18.4 percentage points to - 16.1%. Exports to the EU and Japan increased by 7.6% and 6.6% respectively. The weight of exports to the US rebounded to 11.7%, higher than that in April and May but still lower than the level in the first quarter of this year[3][28] - **ASEAN**: The proportion of exports to ASEAN declined to 17.9% in June, the lowest since March this year, as direct exports crowded out transit trade demand[3][28] - **Outlook**: In early August, the "reciprocal tariff" exemption period for multiple parties by the US will end. It is expected that the "rushing to export" in July will continue to be released at an accelerated pace, and the year - on - year export reading may not be weak. Leading indicators suggest that the export growth rate in July may further increase[5][12][33] 3.2 Import: Price Recovery, Low - Base Effect, and the Year - on - Year Growth of Imports Turns Positive - **Overall Situation**: In June, the import amount increased by 1.1% year - on - year, turning positive for the first time since December last year, mainly due to the low - base effect and the improvement of bulk commodity spot prices. However, the month - on - month import decreased by 1.2%, weaker than the seasonal average[4][34] - **By Commodity Type** - **Upstream Bulk Commodities**: The year - on - year import of five types of upstream bulk commodities decreased by 11.4%, dragging down the import by 3.1 percentage points. The weakening of import volume may be the main drag[35] - **Intermediate Goods**: The combined year - on - year growth of four types of intermediate goods was +8.6%, 4.7 percentage points better than that in May, driving the year - on - year import growth by about 1.9 percentage points[35] - **Downstream Consumer Goods**: The combined year - on - year import of three types of consumer goods decreased by 21.0%, and the drag on imports increased by 0.6 percentage points compared with the previous month[35]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since July 1, 2025, the "anti - involution" policy has been in force. The risk of price war in the automobile industry has decreased, and the valuation of convertible bonds in the manufacturing sector has risen. The weighted index of underlying stocks of convertible bonds has increased by 7.88% since the "anti - involution" market started at the end of June. As of July 11, the forced redemption probability in July is 62.0%, at the second - highest point since 2021 [1][12]. - The game space for near - maturity convertible bonds has narrowed. The fitted premium rates of convertible bonds with remaining terms of 0 - 1 year and 1 - 2 years have increased by 1.94pct and 1.85pct respectively compared to the end of June [2]. - As of July 11, among 463 listed companies in the convertible bond market, 40 have released 2025 semi - annual report performance forecasts, with a disclosure rate of 8.64% and a pre - happy rate of 60.00%. Performance clues are mainly concentrated in resource products, and their performance may continue to be realized in the second half of the year [3][19]. - Last week, the main stock indexes rose, and the convertible bond market followed. The weighted average closing price of convertible bonds increased by 0.72% compared to the previous Friday. Only the conversion premium rate of high - rated convertible bonds increased [22][32]. - Last week, 4 convertible bonds announced redemptions, and no convertible bond's board of directors proposed a downward revision. Huachen and Luwei convertible bonds were listed, and Guanghe convertible bond was issued, with an expected issuance scale of about 7 billion yuan [4][5]. Summary According to the Directory "Anti - involution" Market Continues to Heat Up, and Forced Redemptions are Triggered Concentratedly - The "anti - involution" policy has been continuously strengthened. The risk of price war in the automobile industry has decreased, and the fitted premium rate of the manufacturing sector's convertible bonds has increased by 0.45pct compared to the previous Friday as of July 11 [10]. - Driven by the equity market, most convertible bonds have accumulated more days to trigger redemption clauses. As of July 11, 10 convertible bonds have announced redemptions and are waiting for delisting, with a total balance of 5.414 billion yuan, and 50 convertible bonds have accumulated redemption days, with a total balance of 22.888 billion yuan [12]. - The proportion of forced redemptions has increased marginally. Some "new - issue bonds" are also actively redeeming. The game space for near - maturity convertible bonds has narrowed, and investment strategies may need adjustment [15]. How is the Performance Forecast During the Semi - annual Report Window? - As of July 11, 40 out of 463 listed companies in the convertible bond market have released 2025 semi - annual report performance forecasts, with a disclosure rate of 8.64% and a pre - happy rate of 60.00%. Performance clues are mainly concentrated in resource products [19]. - Due to the summer peak electricity consumption, price increases, and the "anti - involution" policy, the performance of resource products may continue to be realized, and convertible bonds upstream of the silicon chain may improve their profitability [19]. Market Review: Convertible Bonds Rise Weekly, and Valuation Slightly Increases at a High Level Weekly Market Conditions: The Convertible Bond Market Rises, and Most Sectors Perform Strongly - Last week, the main stock indexes rose, and the convertible bond market followed. There are 480 issued and non - matured convertible bonds, with a balance of 653.887 billion yuan. Some convertible bonds are yet to be listed, and there are no convertible bonds to be issued currently [22]. - Most industries in the A - share and convertible bond markets rose. The real estate, steel, and non - bank finance industries led the rise in the A - share market, while the environmental protection, non - bank finance, and coal sectors led the rise in the convertible bond market [27]. Valuation Performance: Only the Conversion Premium Rate of High - rated Convertible Bonds Increases - The weighted average closing price of convertible bonds is 124.16 yuan, a 0.72% increase from the previous Friday. The closing prices of equity - biased, bond - biased, and balanced convertible bonds have all increased. The proportion of convertible bonds in the 110 - 120 (including 120) price range has decreased significantly [32]. - The 100 - yuan parity fitted conversion premium rate of the convertible bond market is 25.38%, a 0.26pct increase from the previous Friday. Only the conversion premium rate of high - rated convertible bonds has increased, while most ratings and scales have seen a compression in the premium rate [32]. Terms and Supply: 4 Convertible Bonds Announce Redemptions, and the Expected Issuance Scale is About 12 Billion Yuan Terms: Last Week, 4 Convertible Bonds Announced Redemptions, and No Convertible Bond's Board of Directors Proposed a Downward Revision - As of July 11, Weilong, Quanfeng, Zhite, and Henghui convertible bonds announced redemptions; Guansheng, Huitong, and Qilu convertible bonds announced redemption arrangements. 13 convertible bonds announced no downward revisions, and 5 convertible bonds are expected to trigger downward revisions [4][49]. Primary Market: Last Week, Huachen and Luwei Convertible Bonds were Listed, and Guanghe Convertible Bond was Issued, with an Expected Issuance Scale of About 7 Billion Yuan - Last week, Huachen and Luwei convertible bonds were listed, with a total scale of 1.075 billion yuan, and Guanghe convertible bond was issued, with a scale of 4.9 billion yuan [54]. - As of July 11, 3 listed companies have obtained convertible bond issuance approvals, with a planned issuance scale of 4.11 billion yuan. 3 listed companies have passed the review committee, with a total scale of 2.62 billion yuan. There were no new board of directors' proposals last week [63].

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Strong Buy" rating for Lingyun Co., Ltd. with a target price of 14.9 CNY [1]. Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from the dual drivers of hot stamping and battery box businesses, with a significant increase in revenue and profit projected due to the rising penetration of new energy vehicles [1][6]. - Lingyun has established a strong market position through strategic partnerships and acquisitions, enhancing its capabilities in key automotive components [6][38]. Financial Summary - Projected total revenue for 2024A is 18,837 million CNY, with a growth rate of 0.7% [1]. - Expected net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024A is 655 million CNY, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.8% [1]. - Earnings per share are projected to be 0.54 CNY for 2024A, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 22 times [1]. Business Overview - Lingyun Co., Ltd. has over 30 years of experience in the automotive parts industry, with a global presence and a focus on high-strength, lightweight automotive safety systems and various pipeline systems [6][13]. - The company has diversified into new energy battery management systems, fluid control systems, and sensor technology, creating new growth avenues [6][13]. Hot Stamping and Battery Box Business - The hot stamping business is expected to grow due to the increasing demand for lightweight and high-strength components in the automotive industry [23][24]. - The battery box segment is projected to expand significantly as the penetration of new energy vehicles increases, with the market for aluminum battery boxes expected to reach approximately 350 billion CNY by 2027 [38][49]. Sensor Technology Development - Lingyun is actively developing sensor technology, particularly in the field of force sensors for robotics, which is anticipated to open new growth opportunities [6][38]. - The company plans to collaborate with research institutions to accelerate the development of sensor projects, enhancing its long-term growth potential [6][38]. Market Position and Competitive Advantage - Lingyun has established partnerships with major automotive manufacturers, including Tesla, BMW, and Audi, which strengthens its market position [6][38]. - The company has a diversified product portfolio and a broad customer base, which contributes to its competitive advantage in the automotive parts market [6][38].