Report Information - Report Title: [Bond Weekly Report] Certificate of Deposit Weekly Report (0707 - 0713): Near 1.65%, Focus on Allocation Value [1] - Report Date: July 14, 2025 [1] - Research Institution: Huachuang Securities Research Institute [1] - Analysts: Zhou Guannan, Song Qi [1] 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Season - end wealth management allocation overdraws the early - season market. When the 1y national and joint - stock bank certificates of deposit are slightly priced up and approach 1.65%, their allocation cost - effectiveness can be considered [2][53]. 3. Summary by Directory Supply: Net financing decline and shortening of term structure - This week (July 7 - July 13), the issuance scale of certificates of deposit was 42.713 billion yuan, and the net financing was - 8.339 billion yuan (from June 30 to July 6, it was - 0.282 billion yuan). The issuance proportion of state - owned banks increased from 19% to 25%, and that of joint - stock banks decreased from 40% to 23%. The issuance proportion of 1Y certificates of deposit decreased from 73% to 58%. The weighted issuance term of certificates of deposit narrowed to 8.88 months (the previous value was 9.75 months) [2][5]. - Next week (July 14 - July 20), the maturity scale will rise to 80.281 billion yuan, a weekly increase of 29.229 billion yuan. The maturities are mainly concentrated in state - owned banks, joint - stock banks, and city commercial banks. From a term perspective, the maturity amounts of 3M and 1Y certificates of deposit are relatively high, at 19.916 billion yuan and 41.892 billion yuan respectively, with 20.389 billion yuan maturing on the 17th [2][5]. Demand: State - owned banks increase allocation, and the primary market subscription rate declines - In the secondary market, state - owned banks and wealth management are the main allocators, with weekly net purchases of 5.4403 billion yuan and 6.8292 billion yuan respectively. The net sales of money market funds increased from 4.4696 billion yuan to 10.131 billion yuan [2][16]. - In the primary market, the overall market subscription rate (15DMA) declined to around 91%. Among different institutions, the subscription rate of city commercial banks decreased from 87% to 84%, that of joint - stock banks decreased from 92% to 90%, state - owned banks maintained at 95%, and rural commercial banks maintained at 97% [16]. Valuation: Slight upward movement in primary and secondary pricing - Primary pricing: As funds tightened around the middle of the month, the pricing of joint - stock bank certificates of deposit increased. Specifically, the 1M variety increased by 4bp, 3M and 9M increased by 2bp, 6M increased by 1bp, and 1Y increased by 4bp. The 1Y - 3M term spread of joint - stock banks widened by 2bp, at the 19% historical quantile. The 1Y spread between city commercial banks and joint - stock banks narrowed from 12.03BP to 8.13BP, and that between rural commercial banks and joint - stock banks widened from 4.37BP to 5.99BP [2][20]. - Secondary yield: The secondary yields of AAA - rated certificates of deposit increased. The 1M variety increased by 2bp, 3M increased by 3bp, and 6M, 9M, and 1Y increased by 4bp. The 1Y - 3M term spread of AAA - rated certificates of deposit slightly widened, maintaining at the 17% historical quantile [2]. Comparison: Near 1.65%, focus on allocation value - The spread between medium - short - term notes and certificates of deposit significantly compressed. The spread between the 1y AAA - rated certificate of deposit yield and the DR007:15DMA funds widened from 1.15BP to 6.49BP; the spread with R007:15DMA funds remained inverted, narrowing from - 8.47BP to - 2.44BP. The 1y treasury bond yield widened by 3.40bp, and the spread between certificates of deposit and treasury bonds slightly widened to 26.01BP, with the quantile rising from 6% to 7%. The spread between certificates of deposit and China Development Bank bonds slightly narrowed from 14.69BP to 13.57BP, and the quantile dropped to around 7%. The spread between AAA medium - short - term notes and certificates of deposit narrowed from 8.62BP to 4.30BP, and the quantile dropped to 15% [2][35].

Group 1: Immigration Statistics - As of the end of 2024, the estimated number of illegal immigrants in the U.S. is approximately 12.8 to 15.2 million, contributing about 8.5 to 10 million to the labor force assuming a labor participation rate of 66.3%[3][13]. - From February to June this year, the number of deportations was less than 100,000, accounting for only 0.7-0.8% of the total illegal immigrant population[4][15]. - Between January and May this year, the number of illegal immigrants encountered at the southwestern border was approximately 108,700, representing a decrease of 88% compared to the same period in 2024[4][17]. Group 2: Changes in Public Attitude Towards Immigration - The percentage of Americans wanting to reduce immigration has dropped from 55% in June last year to 30% in June this year, with significant declines across all political parties[5][19]. - Currently, 79% of American adults believe immigration is beneficial to the country, the highest level since 2001[5][25]. - Support for providing a pathway to citizenship for undocumented immigrants has increased from 70% last year to 78% this year, while support for deporting all undocumented immigrants has decreased from 47% to 38%[6][29].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 304 yuan [2][8]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of 10.63 to 10.84 billion yuan for H1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 35.01% to 37.68%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be between 2.31 to 2.45 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 33.48% to 41.57% [2][8]. - In Q2 2025, the company anticipates revenue of 5.782 to 5.992 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 31.67% to 36.46%. The net profit is expected to be between 1.33 to 1.47 billion yuan, showing a growth of 24.68% to 37.81% [2][8]. - The company is focusing on increasing marketing expenditures during the peak season, which is expected to drive sales growth and enhance the performance of new products [2][8]. Financial Summary - For the fiscal years 2024A to 2027E, the total revenue is projected to grow from 15.839 billion yuan in 2024 to 28.962 billion yuan in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 40.6%, 30.9%, 20.9%, and 15.5% respectively [4]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to increase from 3.326 billion yuan in 2024 to 6.617 billion yuan in 2027, with growth rates of 63.1%, 35.8%, 24.2%, and 17.9% respectively [4]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to rise from 6.40 yuan in 2024 to 12.72 yuan in 2027, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios decreasing from 45 to 23 over the same period [4][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the solid-state battery equipment sector, indicating an expectation of significant growth in the coming months [1]. Core Insights - The solid-state battery industry has achieved a milestone with the delivery of full solid-state production lines by Li Yuanheng, marking a rapid development in China's solid-state battery production capacity [7]. - The electric power equipment and new energy sector saw a weekly increase of 2.68%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.86 percentage points [8]. - The report highlights a positive outlook for the electric vehicle sector, driven by the end of inventory reduction and anticipated growth in both European and domestic markets [4]. Summary by Sections Solid-State Battery Progress - The first engineering samples from a GWh-level solid-state battery production line developed by Anhui Anwa New Energy have successfully rolled off the production line, with a design capacity of 1.25 GWh [7]. - The number of GWh-level solid-state battery production lines in China is expected to increase to seven, with over 30 pilot lines in development [7]. Market Performance Review - The electric new energy sector ranked 10th among 30 industry sectors, with a 2.68% increase, while the CSI 300 index rose by 0.82% during the same period [8]. - The top-performing sub-sectors included solar energy (7.95%), fuel cells (2.99%), and distribution equipment (2.58%) [8]. New Energy Vehicle Industry Tracking - Lithium battery supply chain prices showed mixed trends, with battery-grade lithium carbonate increasing by 2.26% to 63,400 CNY/ton, while nickel sulfate decreased by 2.11% [29]. - Key announcements from listed companies included performance forecasts and stock reduction disclosures, indicating ongoing activity in the sector [41]. Valuation Situation - As of July 11, 2025, the electric new energy sector's valuation stood at 62x, significantly higher than the CSI 300's 13x, with specific segments like electric motors and energy storage showing even higher valuations [19]. - Notable companies in the sector include CATL, with a market cap of 124.91 billion CNY and a projected PE ratio of 22.8x for 2023 [28].

Investment Strategy - The report emphasizes that Xinjiang is benefiting from two major strategic shifts: from coastal economies to the Belt and Road Initiative, positioning Xinjiang as a frontier hub with geographical advantages. The balance is shifting towards energy security and dual carbon environmental goals, making coal chemical industry a focal point for Xinjiang's resource advantages [7][10] - The external environment for coal chemical development in Xinjiang is maturing, with factors such as rising coal prices and favorable industrial policies supporting the shift towards coal chemical production in the western regions of China [7][8] Xinjiang Index Situation - The Xinjiang index is reported at 109.14, with a week-on-week increase of 2.00%. The Xinjiang coal chemical investment index stands at 105.29, up 2.74%, and the Xinjiang state-owned enterprise reform index is at 113.32, reflecting a 1.24% increase [14] - The top three companies with the highest weekly gains include Guangdong Hongda (+16.69%), Fosda (+9.85%), and Xinyan Co. (+9.63%), while the companies with the largest declines are Baofeng Energy (-2.56%), Zhun Oil Co. (-3.10%), and ST Tianshan (-4.40%) [14] Key Data Tracking - Key prices in Xinjiang include Q5000 mixed coal at 100 yuan/ton, Q5200 mixed coal at 197 yuan/ton, and main coking coal at 700 yuan/ton. The price of methanol is reported at 1760 yuan/ton, with a price difference of -647.5 yuan/ton compared to East China [21][22] - In May 2025, the coal railway shipment volume from state-owned key coal mines reached 3.308 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 16.60%, while the raw coal production in Xinjiang was 46.651 million tons, up 23.44% year-on-year [21][22] Key News and Company Announcements - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment has accepted the environmental impact assessment for the National Energy Group's Hami Energy Integrated Innovation Base project, which includes a significant investment in coal-to-oil technology [41][43] - Two coal-to-natural gas projects in Xinjiang have passed environmental impact assessments, each with a production capacity of 2 billion cubic meters per year, utilizing advanced coal-to-gas technology and low-carbon techniques [41][43] - Recent developments include the initiation of a 40 billion yuan coal tar deep processing project and a 257 billion yuan coal-to-ethylene glycol project, indicating a strong push towards enhancing Xinjiang's coal chemical industry [41][43] Overview of Key Projects - The report outlines several key coal chemical projects in Xinjiang, including the National Energy Group's coal-to-oil project with an investment of 170 billion yuan and a capacity of 400,000 tons per year, and the Xinjiang Shanneng Chemical's coal-to-olefins project with an investment of 209 billion yuan [46][47] - The total planned capacity for coal-to-natural gas is 41.6 billion cubic meters, coal-to-oil is 5 million tons, coal-to-olefins is 9.45 million tons, and coal-to-methanol is 17.5 million tons, with a total investment of 962.8 billion yuan [46][47]

Group 1 - The recent surge in the A-share market indicates the confirmation of a bull market, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through previous high points and showing significant trading volume, suggesting a recovery from earlier declines [1][8][6] - The impact of tariffs announced by Trump is viewed as limited, with historical examples indicating that trade wars do not significantly affect economic performance, as seen during the 1930 trade war [1][17][20] - The bull market is expected to generate three wealth effects: stabilizing expectations, supporting consumption, and restoring financing functions, with increased retail participation in the stock market [1][25][39] Group 2 - Historical analysis shows that sectors tend to rotate after new highs, with financials, cyclical resources, and military industries frequently leading the market, while manufacturing and consumer sectors rely more on their own trends [2][43][44] - Potential rotation directions in the current market include non-bank financials and cyclical resource sectors, with expectations for real estate stabilization being crucial for economic recovery [3][7] - The report highlights that the current bull market is characterized by a significant inflow of funds into the stock market, driven by increased retail investor activity and policy support [1][25][39]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 24.5 yuan [2][8]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve revenue of 14.5-15.0 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 7.91-11.63%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 950-1000 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 19.2-25.48% [2][4]. - The second quarter of 2025 saw revenue growth exceeding expectations, with a year-on-year increase of 10.05%-16.67%, and net profit growth of 14.88%-21.25% [2][8]. - The company benefits from demand in special industries, including new energy vehicles, aerospace, and integrated circuits, leading to rapid growth in technology innovation-related business orders [8]. Financial Performance Summary - The company is projected to achieve total revenue of 36.24 billion yuan in 2025, with a net profit of 4.08 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 15.9% [8]. - The financial indicators show a steady increase in revenue and net profit over the next few years, with expected revenue of 40.10 billion yuan in 2026 and 44.30 billion yuan in 2027 [4][8]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is expected to rise from 0.60 yuan in 2024 to 0.97 yuan in 2027, indicating a positive growth trajectory [4][8]. Strategic Focus - The company is focusing on high-growth sectors such as reliability and environmental testing, integrated circuits, and data science analysis, positioning itself as a leader in these fields [8]. - The management reform and shift towards a profit-centered strategy are expected to enhance profitability, with profit growth anticipated to outpace revenue growth [8].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the hereditary angioedema (HAE) treatment sector, particularly following the approval of the first oral on-demand treatment, sebetralstat [14][21]. Core Insights - The report highlights the urgent need for effective HAE treatments due to the high risk of life-threatening episodes, with nearly half of HAE patients facing potential asphyxiation [10][16]. - Sebetralstat, approved by the FDA, is noted for its rapid onset of action, achieving near-complete inhibition of plasma kallikrein within 15 minutes of administration [21]. - The KONFIDENT trial results demonstrate that sebetralstat significantly reduces symptom relief time compared to placebo, with median relief times of 1.61 hours for the 300 mg dose and 1.79 hours for the 600 mg dose [20][21]. Summary by Sections Section 1: HAE Overview - HAE is characterized by recurrent episodes of angioedema without urticaria, with a prevalence of approximately 1.5 per 100,000 individuals [7]. - The disease can lead to severe complications, including laryngeal edema, which has a mortality rate of up to 40% among patients [7][10]. Section 2: Current Treatment Landscape - Existing treatments include long-term preventive therapies (LTP) and on-demand treatments for acute episodes [10][11]. - The global HAE drug market reached $2.9 billion in 2022, with $2 billion attributed to long-term prevention and $900 million to acute on-demand treatments [13]. Section 3: Sebetralstat Approval and Efficacy - Sebetralstat is the first oral on-demand treatment for HAE, approved on July 7, 2025, and is expected to address unmet needs in the treatment landscape [21]. - The KONFIDENT trial, involving 136 patients across 20 countries, confirmed the efficacy and safety of sebetralstat, showing significant improvements in symptom relief and severity reduction compared to placebo [21]. Section 4: Future Developments - Pharvaris is developing deucrictibant, a competitive oral antagonist for HAE, with promising Phase II trial results indicating effective management of HAE attacks [26]. - The report anticipates further advancements in HAE treatments, with ongoing clinical trials expected to yield additional data in the coming years [26].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the automotive industry, indicating a positive outlook for the second half of the year [1]. Core Insights - The automotive market is expected to continue strong sales in the second half of the year, supported by a reduction in inventory and a decrease in price war risks. However, there are concerns regarding sales fluctuations due to potential electric vehicle subsidies next year, which may suppress market sentiment [1]. - The report suggests actively observing opportunities in the sector after market sentiment stabilizes, particularly in the context of the recent strong performance of Hong Kong stocks [1]. Data Tracking - In June, new energy vehicle deliveries showed significant growth, with BYD delivering 382,585 units (up 12% year-on-year), while Li Auto and Xpeng saw deliveries of 36,279 units (down 24.1% year-on-year) and 34,611 units (up 224.4% year-on-year), respectively [4][21]. - Traditional automakers also reported strong sales, with Geely's sales reaching 236,000 units (up 42.1% year-on-year) and SAIC Motor leading with 365,000 units (up 21.6% year-on-year) [4][23]. Industry Recommendations - For complete vehicles, the report recommends Jianghuai Automobile, highlighting potential for growth in both volume and profitability in the second half of the year. It also suggests monitoring new models from Li Auto and Baic Blue Valley, as well as the accelerated delivery of Xiaomi's YU7 [6]. - In the parts sector, the report advises a selective approach to stock picking, focusing on companies with lower valuations (below 15 times) and expected growth rates above 15% for the next year. Recommended stocks include Xingyu Co. and Aikodi [6]. - The heavy truck segment is expected to maintain strong growth, with policy support driving demand. Recommendations include Heavy Truck A and Weichai H/A [6]. Market Performance - The automotive sector experienced a decline of 0.56% this week, ranking 29th out of 29 sectors. In contrast, the overall market indices showed positive growth, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 1.09% and the ChiNext Index up 2.36% [9][33].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for resource stocks, emphasizing the continued performance of the non-ferrous metals sector [2]. Core Views - The report highlights the impact of U.S. tariffs on copper imports, which have led to a decrease in domestic copper prices by 1.63% [5]. - It notes a decline in aluminum ingot inventory and an increase in aluminum rod inventory, indicating mixed trends in the aluminum market [5]. - The report emphasizes the strong earnings growth forecasts for several companies in the sector, driven by production increases and favorable raw material prices [5][7][8]. Industry Overview - **Basic Industry Data**: The non-ferrous metals sector comprises 125 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 31,100.02 billion and a circulating market value of 27,077.84 billion [2]. - **Performance Metrics**: The sector has shown a 6.0% absolute performance over the past month and 18.7% over the past year, indicating a positive trend [3]. - **Copper Market**: The report discusses the implications of a 50% tariff on copper imports announced by the U.S., which has led to a significant market reaction and price adjustments [5]. - **Aluminum Market**: The report notes a decrease in aluminum ingot inventory and an increase in aluminum rod inventory, suggesting a complex market dynamic influenced by both supply and demand factors [5]. Company Insights - **Yun Aluminum Co.**: The company forecasts a 7.19% to 11.16% increase in net profit for H1 2025, attributed to full production capacity and favorable raw material prices [5]. - **Zhongfu Industrial**: Expected net profit growth of 53.35% to 62.37% for H1 2025, driven by cost reductions and increased sales prices [5]. - **Jincheng Mining**: Anticipates a net profit increase of 74.62% to 82.78% for H1 2025, supported by higher sales volumes and effective cost control measures [5]. - **Hunan Gold**: Projects a 40% to 60% increase in net profit for H1 2025, primarily due to rising sales prices of gold and antimony products [7]. - **Huayou Cobalt**: Forecasts a net profit increase of 55.62% to 67.59% for H1 2025, benefiting from integrated operations and rising cobalt prices [8]. - **North Rare Earth**: Expects a staggering net profit increase of 1882.54% to 2014.71% for H1 2025, driven by significant growth in production and sales of rare earth products [8].