Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the engineering machinery industry [2] Core Viewpoints - The domestic sales of excavators turned negative in May 2025, but the overall industry recovery trend remains intact. The report anticipates a steady recovery in demand driven by increased fixed asset investment and local government bond issuance [5][6] - The export of excavators continues to show robust growth, with a year-on-year increase of 5.4% in May 2025, indicating a stable demand in traditional markets and an expanding market share for Chinese brands [5] - The report highlights the rapid increase in the electrification penetration rate of loaders, reaching 26.2% in May 2025, driven by stricter environmental requirements and decreasing lithium battery material costs [5] Summary by Sections Industry Basic Data - The engineering machinery industry consists of 11 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 402.51 billion yuan and a circulating market capitalization of 342.78 billion yuan [2] Sales Performance - In May 2025, excavator sales reached 18,202 units, a year-on-year increase of 2.1%, with domestic sales declining by 1.5% [5] - Loader sales in May 2025 totaled 10,535 units, with domestic sales growing by 16.7% [5] Export Performance - The engineering machinery export trade value for January to April 2025 was 18.07 billion USD, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9.0% [5] - The top three export markets for Chinese engineering machinery are Russia, the United States, and Indonesia, with varying growth rates [5] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies such as SANY Heavy Industry, Hengli Hydraulic, and Zoomlion, while also suggesting to pay attention to Liugong and XCMG [5][6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The convertible bond market declined following the underlying stocks, and the valuation compressed on June 10, 2025 [1]. - The trading sentiment in the convertible bond market heated up, with the trading volume increasing [1]. - The market style favored large - cap value stocks [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Overview - Index Performance: The CSI Convertible Bond Index decreased by 0.28% compared to the previous day. The Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.44%, the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 0.86%, the ChiNext Index decreased by 1.17%, the SSE 50 Index decreased by 0.39%, and the CSI 1000 Index decreased by 0.92% [1]. - Market Style: Large - cap value stocks were relatively dominant. Large - cap growth decreased by 0.71%, large - cap value decreased by 0.07%, mid - cap growth decreased by 0.70%, mid - cap value decreased by 0.09%, small - cap growth decreased by 1.01%, and small - cap value decreased by 0.34% [1]. - Capital Performance: The trading volume of the convertible bond market was 74.1 billion yuan, a 6.52% increase from the previous day. The total trading volume of the Wind All - A Index was 1.451437 trillion yuan, a 10.57% increase. The net out - flow of the main funds in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 35.972 billion yuan, and the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond increased by 0.10bp to 1.66% [1]. Convertible Bond Price - The central price of convertible bonds decreased, and the proportion of high - price bonds decreased. The weighted average closing price of convertible bonds was 119.95 yuan, a 0.31% decrease from the previous day. The closing price of equity - biased convertible bonds was 162.79 yuan, a 0.01% increase; the closing price of bond - biased convertible bonds was 111.37 yuan, a 0.20% decrease; the closing price of balanced convertible bonds was 121.15 yuan, a 0.01% decrease [2]. - The proportion of bonds with a closing price above 130 yuan was 24.42%, a 2.34 - percentage - point decrease from the previous day. The most significant change in the proportion was in the range of 110 - 120 (including 120), with a proportion of 34.82%, a 1.06 - percentage - point increase. There were 8 bonds with a closing price below 100 yuan. The median price was 121.38 yuan, a 0.67% decrease from the previous day [2]. Convertible Bond Valuation - The valuation compressed. The conversion premium rate of the 100 - yuan par - value fitted convertible bonds was 23.00%, a 0.42 - percentage - point decrease from the previous day. The overall weighted par value was 89.91 yuan, a 0.64% decrease [2]. - The premium rate of equity - biased convertible bonds was 4.93%, a 0.91 - percentage - point decrease; the premium rate of bond - biased convertible bonds was 90.04%, a 0.53 - percentage - point increase; the premium rate of balanced convertible bonds was 19.78%, a 0.08 - percentage - point increase [2]. Industry Performance - In the A - share market, the top three industries with the largest declines were national defense and military industry (-1.97%), computer (-1.87%), and electronics (-1.65%); the top three industries with the largest increases were beauty care (+1.10%), banking (+0.48%), and medicine and biology (+0.33%) [3]. - In the convertible bond market, 24 industries declined. The top three industries with the largest declines were communication (-2.17%), computer (-1.58%), and building materials (-1.49%); the top three industries with the largest increases were beauty care (+0.82%), agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery (+0.34%), and banking (+0.32%) [3]. - For different sectors: - Closing price: The large - cycle sector decreased by 0.59%, the manufacturing sector decreased by 0.65%, the technology sector decreased by 1.44%, the large - consumption sector decreased by 0.31%, and the large - finance sector increased by 0.14% [3]. - Conversion premium rate: The large - cycle sector decreased by 0.4 percentage points, the manufacturing sector increased by 0.62 percentage points, the technology sector increased by 0.86 percentage points, the large - consumption sector increased by 0.87 percentage points, and the large - finance sector increased by 1.0 percentage point [3]. - Conversion value: The large - cycle sector decreased by 0.81%, the manufacturing sector decreased by 1.51%, the technology sector decreased by 1.82%, the large - consumption sector decreased by 0.08%, and the large - finance sector decreased by 0.68% [3]. - Pure - bond premium rate: The large - cycle sector decreased by 0.7 percentage points, the manufacturing sector decreased by 0.72 percentage points, the technology sector decreased by 2.0 percentage points, the large - consumption sector decreased by 0.43 percentage points, and the large - finance sector increased by 0.13 percentage points [4]. Industry Rotation - Beauty care, banking, and medicine and biology led the rise. For beauty care, the daily increase of the underlying stocks was 1.10%, and the convertible bonds increased by 0.82%; for banking, the daily increase of the underlying stocks was 0.48%, and the convertible bonds increased by 0.32%; for medicine and biology, the daily increase of the underlying stocks was 0.33%, and the convertible bonds increased by 0.18% [53].

Group 1: Economic Context - The Kondratiev wave signifies the long-term cycles of the world economy, marked by the rise and fall of great powers, with the 1930s trade war reflecting the economic dynamics of that era[1] - In the 1930s, the U.S. was a trade surplus and creditor nation, while the U.K. was a trade deficit and debtor nation, a reversal of roles seen today with China as a creditor and the U.S. as a debtor[11] - Current global trade accounts for 30% of GDP, significantly higher than the 4-5% in the 1930s, indicating a deeper integration of the global economy[11] Group 2: Currency Dynamics - The decline of the British pound in the 1930s was due to economic decline, depleted gold reserves, and debt defaults, paralleling current challenges faced by the U.S. dollar[2] - The U.S. government debt exceeds 120% of GDP, with interest payments over 3% of GDP, raising concerns about the dollar's stability[11] - Gold prices increased from $17 to $35 per ounce between 1931 and 1934, reflecting the depreciation of fiat currencies during monetary system transitions[31] Group 3: Tariff Impacts - The economic impact of tariffs today is expected to be greater than in the 1930s due to the higher global trade integration, with tariffs potentially affecting employment and income levels[3] - Historical data shows that tariffs in the 1930s did not significantly raise inflation in deficit countries, suggesting that current tariff impacts may also be limited in terms of price levels[3] - The U.S. trade deficit is projected to exceed $900 billion in 2024, with a significant portion attributed to China, highlighting ongoing trade tensions[25] Group 4: Policy Responses - The U.S. response to the Great Depression involved abandoning the gold standard and expanding the money supply, a strategy mirrored by China's recent dual monetary and fiscal easing policies[4] - Current U.S. tariff policies may lead to a fragmented trade system, similar to the 1930s, as countries seek to establish trade agreements independent of U.S. influence[4] - The political demand for tariffs is driven by widening wealth gaps, with historical parallels drawn to the 1930s when similar economic pressures led to protective measures[4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for Haiguang Information, with a target price of 177 CNY [2][8]. Core Views - The merger between Haiguang Information and Zhongke Shuguang is expected to create a "computing power aircraft carrier," enhancing competitiveness across the entire industry chain from chip design to cloud computing services [2][8]. - The merger is the first major asset restructuring case following the revision of the "Major Asset Restructuring Management Measures for Listed Companies," indicating strong governmental support for technology enterprises [8]. - Haiguang Information's Q1 2025 revenue reached 2.4 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 50.76%, with a net profit of 506 million CNY, reflecting a significant growth trajectory [8]. - The combined entity is projected to have a total market value exceeding 400 billion CNY, positioning it as a leading player in the domestic computing power sector [8]. Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for Haiguang Information are 9.162 billion CNY for 2024, 13.738 billion CNY for 2025, 19.503 billion CNY for 2026, and 26.327 billion CNY for 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 52.4%, 49.9%, 42.0%, and 35.0% respectively [4][8]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 1.931 billion CNY in 2024, 2.902 billion CNY in 2025, 4.219 billion CNY in 2026, and 5.724 billion CNY in 2027, with corresponding growth rates of 52.9%, 50.3%, 45.4%, and 35.7% [4][8]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 164 in 2024 to 55 in 2027, indicating an improving valuation as earnings grow [4][8]. Market Position and Strategy - The merger aims to integrate various technological capabilities, enhancing the competitive edge against international giants like NVIDIA [8]. - The company is building a comprehensive ecosystem involving nearly 5,000 partners, covering chip design, system integration, and industry applications, thereby establishing a self-sustaining ecosystem [8]. - The report anticipates that the combined entity will benefit from synergies across the "chip-server-computing service" ecosystem, particularly with the expected surge in AI computing demand [8].

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In May, the CPI decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, slightly better than the expected decline of 0.2%[2] - The core CPI increased by 0.6% year-on-year, up from 0.5% in the previous period[2] - The cumulative CPI increase for the first five months of this year is 0%, which is weaker than the 0.4% increase during the same period from 2021 to 2024[3] - Food prices showed a cumulative decrease of 0.6% year-on-year, compared to a decrease of 1% in the previous four years[3] Group 2: PPI Analysis - The PPI decreased by 3.3% year-on-year, worse than the expected decline of 3.2%[2] - The cumulative PPI decrease for the first five months of this year is -1.5%, weaker than last year's -0.5%[3] - In the first five months, the prices of production materials, particularly in the mining sector, showed significant weakness, with a cumulative decrease of 8.7% in extraction[5] - Among 32 comparable industries, only 10 showed stronger prices compared to last year, primarily in downstream manufacturing and electric heating sectors[5] Group 3: Price Trends and Influences - Energy prices decreased by 2.3% year-on-year, significantly impacting the overall CPI decline, accounting for nearly 70% of the total drop[4] - The price of gasoline fell by 3.8%, contributing to a 0.13 percentage point decrease in the CPI[7] - The proportion of CPI items experiencing price increases rose from 24% to 29%, indicating a broader inflationary trend[55] - The PPI's year-on-year decline expanded from 2.7% to 3.3%, reflecting ongoing pressures in the production sector[49]

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the cyclical nature of the Kondratiev wave, highlighting the historical context of major power shifts and the impact of technological revolutions on economic cycles [12][18][31] - The comparison between the 1930s trade war and current economic conditions suggests that the current global trade dynamics are more complex, with a higher percentage of GDP tied to global trade [3][11][30] - The report indicates that the current monetary system is undergoing a transformation, with the dollar facing challenges similar to those faced by the British pound in the 1930s, while gold is expected to appreciate as a hedge against fiat currency depreciation [2][31][32] Group 2 - The analysis of tariff impacts reveals that the quantitative effects of tariffs today may be significantly greater than those in the 1930s, while the price effects may be limited [3][4][30] - The report discusses the macroeconomic policy responses, noting that current strategies in China, such as dual monetary and fiscal easing, are seen as effective in stimulating domestic demand [4][5][30] - The fragmentation of trade patterns is highlighted, with the emergence of a multipolar trade currency system driven by current tariff policies and geopolitical tensions [4][5][30] Group 3 - The report outlines the political motivations behind tariffs, linking them to rising income inequality and the protection of traditional industries [5][6][30] - The technological revolution is identified as a key driver of the Kondratiev wave, with AI and related technologies poised to shape the next economic cycle [4][12][31] - The historical context of trade negotiations is examined, showing how surplus countries have historically sought to lower tariffs while deficit countries have maintained barriers [4][5][30]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for Haiguang Information, with a target price of 177 CNY [2][8]. Core Views - The merger between Haiguang Information and Zhongke Shuguang is expected to create a "computing power aircraft carrier," consolidating the entire industry chain from chip design to cloud computing services, potentially exceeding a total market value of 400 billion CNY [2][8]. - The merger is the first major asset restructuring case following the revision of the "Major Asset Restructuring Management Measures for Listed Companies," indicating strong governmental support for technology enterprises [8]. - Haiguang Information's Q1 2025 revenue reached 2.4 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 50.76%, with a net profit of 506 million CNY, reflecting a significant growth trajectory [8]. - The combined entity aims to enhance its competitive edge in the domestic computing power sector, positioning itself as a leading player in the industry [8]. Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for Haiguang Information are 9.162 billion CNY for 2024, 13.738 billion CNY for 2025, 19.503 billion CNY for 2026, and 26.327 billion CNY for 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 52.4%, 49.9%, 42.0%, and 35.0% respectively [4][8]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 1.931 billion CNY in 2024, 2.902 billion CNY in 2025, 4.219 billion CNY in 2026, and 5.724 billion CNY in 2027, with corresponding growth rates of 52.9%, 50.3%, 45.4%, and 35.7% [4][8]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.83 CNY for 2024, 1.25 CNY for 2025, 1.82 CNY for 2026, and 2.46 CNY for 2027 [4][8].

Export Data Summary - In May, China's dollar-denominated exports increased by 4.8% year-on-year, aligning closely with Bloomberg's consensus expectation of 5% and down from 8.1% in April[1] - Dollar-denominated imports in May fell by 3.4% year-on-year, weaker than Bloomberg's consensus expectation of -0.9% and down from -0.2% in April[1] Risk Analysis - The "β risk" indicates potential collapse in U.S. imports, with the latest data showing a significant drop in the U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI import index to 39.9%, suggesting accumulating downward risks[3] - The "α risk" reflects market share loss, with the "Pan-Asian Circle" (China + Mexico + ASEAN) share of U.S. imports declining from 39.7% in 2024 to 35.6% in the first four months of this year, a drop of approximately 4.1 percentage points[4] Future Outlook - High-frequency data suggests that June's overall export growth may marginally decline, but resilience remains, with direct exports to the U.S. showing signs of rebound[7] - Exports to the EU increased by 11.9% in May, up from 8.2% in April, indicating a recovery in demand from the Eurozone manufacturing sector[7] Import Insights - The import of "hard technology" maintained double-digit growth, with imports of automatic data processing equipment and parts rising by 47.5% year-on-year in May[8] - The overall import growth rate has slowed, with May's imports down 3.4% compared to April's -0.2%, indicating a potential weakening in demand[8] Trade Balance - The trade surplus in May rebounded to $103.2 billion, reflecting a recovery in trade dynamics despite the challenges faced in exports and imports[8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - In May, the month - on - month decline of PPI remained the same as in April, and the year - on - year decline of CPI also stayed unchanged. However, after excluding the impact of supply factors such as oil prices and food, marginal new structural changes emerged [1][9]. - In terms of PPI, the drag effect based on trade eased after excluding the 0.2 - percentage - point drag of oil prices. The PPI of export - oriented industries improved marginally, and the price of PPI durable consumer goods manufacturing industry rebounded [1][9]. - In terms of CPI, food performed better than the seasonal level, but the upward momentum of core consumer goods prices continued to weaken. Attention should be paid to the launch of a new round of consumption - promotion policies [2][13]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 May Price Trend: Potential Changes Behind the "Unchanged" Trend - **PPI**: The month - on - month decline in May remained at - 0.4%. After excluding the 0.2 - percentage - point drag of oil prices, the drag effect based on trade eased. The PPI of export - oriented industries improved marginally after the progress of the China - US trade meeting in May. The price of PPI durable consumer goods manufacturing industry rebounded, with a month - on - month increase of 0.1% in May and the year - on - year decline narrowing from 3.7% in April to 3.3% [1][9][11]. - **CPI**: Food performed better than the seasonal level, but the upward momentum of core consumer goods prices continued to weaken. Food supply tightening supported prices, short - term consumption demands such as tourism and clothing continued to be released, while prices of rent, furniture, and cars linked to residents' long - term income were still falling. Core consumer goods have dragged down CPI for two consecutive months after excluding the impact of gold prices, and a new round of consumption - promotion policies may be launched [2][13]. 3.2 May CPI: Food and Tourism Perform Better than Seasonal Levels, but Month - on - Month Decline Continues Due to Oil Price Drag - **Overall Situation**: In May 2025, the listing of fresh vegetables supported the food item, tourism in non - food items performed better than the seasonal level. However, affected by oil prices, durable consumer goods, and rent, CPI declined month - on - month to - 0.2% and remained at - 0.1% year - on - year. The factors affecting CPI month - on - month change from high to low were: services (0)> livestock meat (- 0.01pct)> fresh produce (- 0.03pct)> core consumer goods (- 0.03pct)> energy (- 0.13pct) [2][16]. - **Food Item**: The month - on - month decline of the food item fell back to around - 0.2%, stronger than the seasonal level, affecting CPI to decline by about 0.04 percentage points. Beef prices rose due to reduced imports, while pork prices fell. Fresh vegetable prices decreased, while limited supplies of fresh fruits and aquatic products supported food prices [2][19]. - **Non - food Item**: The month - on - month decline of the non - food item exceeded the seasonal level, falling to - 0.2%, affecting CPI to decline by about 0.16 percentage points. Oil prices dropped, clothing was the main supporting item in core consumer goods, while furniture and car prices still had a drag. Travel - related prices in services were resilient, but rent was still weak [23][24][25]. 3.3 May PPI: Oil Price Drag Increases, Price Decline of Export Industries Narrows, and Month - on - Month Decline Remains at - 0.4% - **Overall Situation**: The month - on - month decline of PPI remained around - 0.4%, mainly dragged down by production materials, while the performance of living materials improved. In May, production material prices decreased by 0.6% (- 0.1pct), and the prices of living materials turned from negative to flat [30]. - **By Industry**: The number of industries with price declines among industrial producers was still around two - thirds. The drag factors were the crude oil industry chain, building - material - related prices, and energy prices such as coal and gas. The supporting factors were export - related industries such as automobiles and machinery, and the non - ferrous metal industry [4][31][36].

5 月需求小幅恢复，新能源渗透率续创新高 事项： 乘联会发布数据，5 月狭义乘用车产量 227 万辆，同比+13%，环比+2%； 批发 231 万辆、同比+13%、环比+6%。 评论： 由于电/油车销量变化、自主库销比高于合资，单看库存总量同比情况 相对失真，我们主要观察库销比。按测算，油车库销比 5 月低于去年 同期、电车高于去年同期约 0.5 个月，显示电车库存压力有所提升，已 不如去年健康，未来行业价格主要变动因素将主要为电车。 证券研究报 告 汽车行业重大事项点评 整车：近期板块投资情绪受创，考虑行业增速节奏、市场担忧因素，整车 选股将更倚向结构性机会。推荐理想汽车、江淮汽车，建议关注北汽蓝 谷、上汽集团、小鹏汽车、小米集团。 零部件：1）机器人板块继续推荐拓普集团、豪能股份、冠盛股份、福达 股份、敏实集团。2）高阶智驾下沉放量，建议关注地平线机器人、比亚 迪电子、速腾聚创、亿咖通等。3）推荐主业基本面表现良好的星宇股 份、继峰股份、银轮股份，以及处于相对低位的新泉股份。 风险提示：宏观经济、国内消费低于预期，汽车出口低于预期，新能源车 销量低于预期，原材料价格波动等。 行业研究 汽车 2025 年 ...