投资建议 行情回顾： 本周（2026.01.26-2026.01.30）农林牧渔（申万）指数收于 2976.84 点(周环比+1.82%)， 沪深 300 指数收于 4706.34 点（周环比+0.08%），深证综指收于 2683.73 点（周环比-2.27%），上证综指收于 4117.95 点（周环比-0.44%），科 创板收于 1509.40 点（周环比-2.85%)，农林牧渔行业指数跑赢上证综指。 种植链： 生猪养殖： 节后整体处于供需双弱的情况，目前生猪价格底部震荡，整体来看供给端压力或使得节后猪价下跌。本周生猪出栏均 重为 127.86 公斤/头，生猪出栏均重小幅回升，在此期间的过程中猪价相对坚挺。从供给端角度来看，1 月份预计出 栏总量环比减少，但是由于元旦后供需双弱以及行业二育入场，预计春节前后生猪价格仍有下探空间。政策端主动去 产能或持续推进，同时板块的持续亏损利好板块去产能逻辑和明年下半年猪价上涨。短期来看，生猪价格仍有下降空 间，近期行业产能在政策调控和供给压力下已经有所减少，同时行业价格已经跌破完全成本线，预计整体亏损下行业 产能去化，目前板块景气度底部企稳。中长期来看，生猪养殖行业依旧 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the oil and petrochemical sector, with the sector outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by +8.40% this week [10]. Core Insights - The oil market is experiencing a rapid increase in prices due to geopolitical risks, particularly concerning Iran's potential actions in the Strait of Hormuz, with a risk premium estimated at $8-10 per barrel [15][16]. - The overall supply remains in excess, with previous supportive factors like cold weather and reduced production in Kazakhstan starting to stabilize [15]. - The report highlights a mixed performance across various segments of the petrochemical industry, with oil and gas resources showing a +7.79% increase, while the polyester index decreased by -1.82% [10]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The petrochemical sector has outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index, with various indices showing significant weekly changes, including the oil and gas extraction service index at +7.96% and the refining and chemical index at +6.75% [10][11]. Oil Market - As of January 29, WTI crude oil closed at $65.42, up $6.06 from the previous week, while Brent crude closed at $72.57, up $6.60 [16]. - The EIA reported a decrease in commercial crude oil inventories by 2.295 million barrels, with a notable drop in gasoline inventories as well [16]. Refining Sector - The average operating rate of domestic refineries increased to 80.02%, with a slight rise in gasoline demand due to seasonal travel [16]. - The average refining margin for major refineries was reported at 659.83 yuan per ton, down 101.65 yuan from the previous period [16]. Polyester Sector - The PX-Naphtha spread has risen to approximately $340 per ton, with PTA processing fees reported at 374.32 yuan per ton [15]. - The report notes a decline in profitability for various polyester products, with average profit levels for POY150D at -21.03 yuan per ton [15]. Olefins Market - The average price for ethylene in the domestic market was reported at 5769 yuan per ton, a slight decrease of 0.33% from the previous week [15]. - Propylene prices in Shandong increased by 225 yuan per ton, reflecting a 3.64% rise [15].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The report highlights various sectors including trendy toys, new tobacco products, home furnishings, paper packaging, personal care, AI glasses, pet food, and 3D printing, indicating a mixed outlook across these industries with some showing signs of recovery while others face challenges Trendy Toys - MINISO has entered the AI companionship market with the development of a humanoid robot named "YOYO" aimed at emotional companionship, with a future price set in the tens of thousands range; the company also announced a partnership with CCTV for the 2026 Spring Festival Gala [2][10] - Bubble Mart's collaboration with SKULLPANDA and My Little Pony has received positive responses on social media, indicating strong consumer interest [11] - LABUBU's 10th anniversary series has shown strong sales, demonstrating the brand's operational capabilities [12] New Tobacco - Japan Tobacco plans to raise the retail price of heated tobacco products by 20-30 yen (approximately $0.13-$0.19) starting April 1, 2026, in response to tax adjustments [2][15] - Philip Morris International has submitted evidence to the FDA to support its ZYN nicotine pouch for modified risk tobacco product designation, indicating a growing regulatory framework for new tobacco products [15] Home Furnishings - The domestic real estate market remains weak, with a year-on-year decline of 35.8% in new home sales in major cities as of January 30 [3][16] - The furniture export from China decreased by 8.7% year-on-year in December, while Vietnam's furniture exports increased by 20.5% [3][18] - The report suggests that the home furnishings sector is in a bottoming phase but may recover with supportive consumption policies [16][18] Paper Packaging - As of January 29, prices for various paper products have shown mixed trends, with some experiencing declines due to seasonal demand fluctuations [3][19] - The report notes that the packaging sector is expected to recover as downstream demand stabilizes [19][20] Personal Care and AI Glasses - The export volume of disposable hygiene products in China is projected to grow by 10.43% year-on-year in 2025, with baby diapers being a key category [4][21] - The global AI glasses market is expected to reach 16 million units by 2026, indicating significant growth potential in this sector [4][24] Pet Food - The pet food industry is facing increased competition, leading to higher sales expense ratios; however, leading companies are expected to maintain their market positions [5][28] - Zhongchong Co. plans to repurchase shares, indicating management's confidence in the company's undervalued stock [5][29] AI and 3D Printing - Tuozhu Technology has partnered with a listed company to develop consumer-grade 3D scanners, enhancing its product matrix in the personal manufacturing space [5][40] - The report emphasizes the importance of tracking the technological advancements and market acceptance of new products in the 3D printing sector [40][41]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the AI-driven sectors, particularly in servers and IDC, driven by domestic and international AI developments [4]. Core Insights - Major companies like Industrial Fulian, Meta, and Microsoft are showing strong growth in their earnings, driven by AI investments and demand for high-performance computing [1][53]. - The report highlights a significant increase in capital expenditures by tech giants, indicating a robust investment trend in AI infrastructure [1][61]. - The demand for optical modules and servers is expected to rise due to the ongoing expansion of AI capabilities and infrastructure [2][35]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The telecommunications sector is experiencing steady growth, with a reported revenue of 16,096 billion yuan, reflecting a 0.9% year-on-year increase [3][14]. - The optical module exports have seen a decline, with a 24% drop in November, attributed to domestic companies establishing overseas factories [3][35]. Company Performance - Industrial Fulian anticipates a net profit of 351-357 billion yuan for 2025, marking a 51%-54% increase year-on-year, driven by strong growth in cloud services and AI servers [1][53]. - Meta's revenue for Q4 reached $59.893 billion, a 24% increase year-on-year, supported by recovering advertising business and AI investments [1][53]. - NewEase is expected to achieve a net profit of 94-99 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a growth of 231.24%-248.86% due to increasing demand for high-speed products [1][55]. Market Trends - The server index decreased by 5.70% this week but has increased by 1.20% for the month, indicating volatility in the market [2][6]. - The optical module index rose by 10.07% this week, reflecting strong demand for high-speed optical devices [2][6]. - The IDC index increased by 3.50% this week, with a notable 11.04% rise for the month, driven by advancements in AI models [2][9]. Future Projections - Companies are expected to continue investing heavily in AI infrastructure, with Alibaba planning to increase its investment in AI and cloud computing from 380 billion yuan to 480 billion yuan over the next three years [1][12]. - The report anticipates that the demand for AI-related services and products will continue to grow, leading to further investment opportunities in the sector [4][35].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for leading brands in the home appliance sector, indicating a potential for steady growth due to integrated advantages and strong pricing power [5]. Core Insights - The home appliance industry is currently facing short-term adjustments in both domestic and export sales due to high base effects and the timing of the Spring Festival, with air conditioning production experiencing significant declines [1][12]. - Domestic air conditioning production in February 2026 was 4.555 million units, down 38.1% year-on-year, while export production was 6.93 million units, down 26.5% year-on-year [1][12]. - Refrigerator production also saw a decline, with domestic production at 2.6 million units (down 17.1%) and exports at 3.4 million units (down 8%) [1][15]. - Washing machine production showed a slight increase in exports (up 1.5%), while domestic production fell to 3.1 million units (down 5.9%) [1][16]. - The report highlights that the real estate market's downturn continues to suppress demand for home appliances, although there are signs of a potential recovery in production post-holiday [3][5]. Summary by Sections Air Conditioning Production - February 2026 air conditioning production was impacted by the Spring Festival timing and high base effects, leading to a significant drop in both domestic and export figures [1][12]. - Domestic production was 4.555 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 38.1%, while exports were 6.93 million units, down 26.5% [1][12]. Refrigerator Production - Domestic refrigerator production in February 2026 was 2.6 million units, down 17.1%, with exports at 3.4 million units, down 8% [1][15]. - The decline in domestic sales was attributed to the Spring Festival holiday and weak macro demand, but a recovery is expected in March [1][15]. Washing Machine Production - Domestic washing machine production was 3.1 million units, down 5.9%, while exports increased slightly to 3.2 million units, up 1.5% [1][16]. - The domestic decline is linked to previous policy impacts and a sluggish real estate market, while exports benefited from stable overseas demand [1][16]. Market and Sector Performance - The report notes that the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index increased by 0.08%, while the home appliance index decreased by 2.88% [2][19]. - Key companies showed varied performance, with Samsung New Materials up 23.72% and Tianyin Electromechanical down 18.66% [2][19]. Raw Material Prices - Recent trends show fluctuations in raw material prices, with copper prices up 1.32% and aluminum prices down 2.57% in the last week [2][23]. - Year-to-date, copper prices have increased by 6.35%, while aluminum has risen by 4.15% [2][23]. Real Estate Data - Real estate metrics indicate a continued decline, with new housing starts down 19.9% year-on-year, impacting long-term demand for home appliances [3][31]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends leading brands such as TCL Electronics, Hisense Visual, Midea Group, and Haier Smart Home for their strong market positions and growth potential in both domestic and international markets [5][42].

如何看待有色金属的高波动？ 本轮有色金属的行情背后是：美元信用松动+流动性宽松预期+新增产业需求叙事，金融资本由于此前对实物资产欠配， 所以在上述三个催化下快速涌入。我们是实物资产投资逻辑在国内市场最早的构建者，但在近期市场过于流行的一致 预期也让我们担心一切看起来"太过容易"。本周四、周五有色金属商品和股票调整的原因则在于上述"美元信用松 动+流动性宽松预期"的叙事因为美联储主席提名人选的确定出现了逆转，再加上有色金属价格达到历史新高后的获 利了结。特朗普对沃什的提名尽管不直接意味着流动性的收紧，但至少让市场看到了一个"重塑美元信用"的蓝图， 这对于前期的拥挤交易产生了冲击：第一，美联储"缩表"回收市场多余流动性，压低通胀；第二，在通胀得到控制 的前提下，跟随自然利率的下降而降息，支持高效率的企业生产培育经济增长的内生动能，这是美元信用可持续的核 心支撑。而为了平滑上述两个环节带来的市场波动——美联储作为本土最大买家逐步减持美债将带来债券收益率大 幅上行，美国政府需要想方设法重塑美债买盘， "石油美元"循环在此时的重要性提升：历史上，原油每上升 1 美 元，将带来沙特、阿联酋、科威特这三个海合组织国家持有美 ...

" " 火箭运力就是"算力"，火箭端卡位核心的环节有望享受长期的估值溢价、最先受益下游景气度的传 导，我们认为火箭端的预期差在于上中下游景气度的边际变化 投资建议 抢占太空资源属于当前我国的重要战略，而目前的核心卡点在于火箭端的运力不足，我们看好 26 年成为商业火箭公司的可回收发射元年，重视国内空天链的"寒武纪"：火箭核心零部件。 相关标的 航天动力（航天发动机）、飞沃科技（航天发动机 3D 打印）、西部材料（航天发动机铌合金材料）、 超捷股份、广联航空。 风险提示 商业航天发展不及预期；原材料价格上涨；新进入者增加、价格竞争激烈；商业火箭公司上市节奏 不及预期。 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 上游：核心的发动机材料环节。发动机核心材料属于稀缺的产业资源，未来随着火箭需求的放量， 我们大概率能看到上游稀缺金属的需求变化。西诺新贵（西部材料子公司）23-25H1 的收入为 3.8、 4.7、2.7 亿元，yoy 达+9.3%、+24.5%、24.9%，随着下游火箭需求的爆发增长，上游材料值得重视。 中游：设备端未来边际变化较大的两个方向是发动机、3D 打印方向，具备稀缺性+通胀的长期逻辑。 1）商业火箭的发动 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for future performance [5]. Core Insights - The company reported Q4 2025 revenue of $3.655 billion, a year-over-year increase of 43.6% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 14.4%. The GAAP gross margin was 11.8%, with a net profit of $267 million, reflecting a 76% increase year-over-year [2]. - The company has raised its full-year revenue guidance for 2026 to $17 billion from a previous estimate of $16 billion, with an expected Non-GAAP EPS of $8.75 [2]. - The data center segment is experiencing rapid growth, with cloud and connectivity solutions revenue reaching $2.86 billion in Q4 2025, up 64% year-over-year. The company is a key supplier for Google's TPU servers, indicating strong partnerships and future revenue potential from AI projects [3]. - The company plans to significantly increase capital expenditures to $1 billion in 2026, reflecting confidence in long-term demand and growth prospects [4]. Summary by Sections Performance Review - Q4 2025 revenue was $3.655 billion, with a GAAP net profit of $267 million, and Non-GAAP net profit of $219 million [2]. - The company expects Q1 2026 revenue to be between $385 million and $415 million, with a Non-GAAP operating margin of 7.8% [2]. Operational Analysis - The company’s data center revenue is projected to continue growing rapidly, with expectations of 60-65% year-over-year growth in the communication terminal market for Q1 2026 [3]. - The company has secured a project for its 1.6T switch with a third major cloud provider, indicating strong market demand [3]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve adjusted Non-GAAP net profits of $1.013 billion, $1.447 billion, and $1.961 billion for the years 2026, 2027, and 2028, respectively [5]. - Revenue projections for 2026 are set at $17.796 billion, with a growth rate of 43.6% [9].

业绩简评 2026 年 1 月 29 日，公司发布 2025 年业绩预告，公司预计 2025 年 实现归母净利润 70-84 亿元，与上年同期（按合并完成后重述口 径）相比，增加 27.8-41.8 亿元，同比增加约 65.89%至 99.07%， 业绩显著改善。 经营分析 行业基本面近期边际改善，新造船价格回升，中国造船全球份额 提升。根据克拉克森，2025 年 12 月全球新船价格指数达 184.65， 环比+0.17%，是 25 年 7 月份以来首次实现月度环比提升。此外， 从订单量上看，25 年 12 月全球新接订单 2488.5 万 DWT，中国新 接订单 2153.3 万 DWT，新接订单全球份额达 86.5%，环比 11 月提 升 20.1pcts，中国造船竞争力提升。 行业周期持续上行，公司订单饱满，叠加前期高价船陆续交付，看 好公司未来利润率持续提升。我们认为本轮船舶周期仍处于上行 阶段，全球造船产能供不应求，同时叠加 2025 年低基数因素，2026 年全球造船订单有望实现量价齐升。公司作为全球造船龙头，在手 订单充足。2025 年 12 月 8 日，公司实际控制人中国船舶集团与中 国远洋 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [5]. Core Insights - The acquisition of a 51.55% stake in Tefu International is expected to significantly enhance the company's net profit attributable to shareholders, with Tefu's projected revenue for 2025 at 8.187 billion RMB and net profit at 1.474 billion RMB [3]. - The company plans to invest 94.72 million USD (approximately 660 million RMB) in a new float glass project in Ghana, which is expected to have a production capacity of 600 tons per day [3]. - The lithium carbonate segment is projected to benefit from rising prices, with the price reaching 172,000 RMB per ton as of January 28, 2026, leading to a significant recovery in profitability for this segment [4]. Financial Projections - The company’s net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 1.554 billion RMB in 2025, 3.135 billion RMB in 2026, and 3.810 billion RMB in 2027, with corresponding P/E ratios of 18, 9, and 7 times [5]. - Revenue is expected to grow from 9.696 billion RMB in 2023 to 22.342 billion RMB in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 29.96% from 2024 to 2025 [10]. - The diluted earnings per share (EPS) is projected to increase from 0.525 RMB in 2024 to 1.986 RMB in 2027 [10].