本周大事件 本周化工市场综述 本周基础化工指数下跌 0.01%，跑赢沪深 300 指数 0.24%。标的方面，本周康宽、硝化棉、碳酸锶、溴素、甲 醇、H 酸相关标的表现较强。基础化工行业，建议关注以下事件，一是产品涨价继续，其中辉隆公布 97%的氯虫苯甲 酰胺预售价格为 32 万元/吨，泰禾将百菌清价格上调至 3 万元/吨；二是中国平煤神马集团 10 万吨/年艾斯安装置投 产，己二腈工艺之争或存在变数；三是利安德巴赛尔公司（LYB）宣布，已与 AEQUITA 达成协议并展开独家谈判，出 售其位于欧洲的部分烯烃和聚烯烃资产及相关业务；四是本周中国钾肥大合同价格顺利达成，价格为 346 美元/吨， 钾肥景气度有望持续，本周市场开始关注估值较低的钾肥标的。 石油化工行业边际变化，本周由于伊朗以色列冲突升级，地缘风险溢价明显上升，进而推动油价明显上升，同 时，也推升了甲醇、碳酸锶、溴素的关注度；整体来说，今年油价走势超市场预期，核心推动因素还是地缘政治。 关税方面，本周主要关注三大事件，一是中美经贸磋商机制首次会议召开，中美原则上达成协议框架；二是美国联 邦上诉法院为特朗普关税"续命"，7 月底将迎关键听证；三是贝森 ...

本周（6.9-6.13）上证综指下跌 0.25%，创业板指上涨 0.22%。碳中和板块上涨 0.15%，环保板块下跌 1.15%，公 用事业板块上涨 0.46%，煤炭板块下跌 0.51%。 哈密北—重庆±800千伏特高压直流输电工程于近日投产运行。该项目是国家首批沙戈荒大型风电光伏外送工程， 项目配套电源包括风电、光伏、光热等新能源 1020 万千瓦，新能源电量占比超 70%。预计每年外送电量可达 360 亿千瓦时以上。第一/第二通道早期送端电源大部分为火电、后经清洁改造也较多采用光伏。三通道配套的新能 源装机中风电占比预期有所提升，具备更稳定的出力能力、提升绿电外送占比。 火电板块：我们建议关注发电资产主要布局在电力供需偏紧、发电侧竞争格局较好地区的火电企业，如皖能电力、 华电国际。水电：建议关注水电运营商龙头长江电力。新能源发电：建议关注新能源龙头龙源电力（H）。核电： 建议关注电价市场化占比提升背景下，核电龙头企业中国核电。 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 6 月 10 日，中电联发布报告显示， 5 月 30 日至 6 月 5 日燃煤电厂发电量、耗煤量同比降幅超 10%，库存增至 11766 万吨。国内煤 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The local government bond market continued to expand last week, with the local bond stock reaching 51.1 trillion yuan as of June 6, 2025 [11]. - The issuance of local government bonds last week totaled 10.9594 billion yuan, including 4.084 billion yuan of new special bonds and 3.3536 billion yuan of refinancing special bonds [19]. - Since mid - late March this year, the yield of local government bonds has been on a continuous downward trend [37]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Stock Market Overview - As of June 6, 2025, the local bond stock reached 51.1 trillion yuan. New special bonds accounted for over 43% of the outstanding local bonds, and refinancing special bonds accounted for 21% [11]. - Among the special bonds with clear funding uses, the stock balances of shantytown renovation, park and new district construction, and rural revitalization were 1.96 trillion, 1.57 trillion, and 1.12 trillion yuan respectively. The stock balance of toll roads exceeded 880 billion yuan, and that of water conservancy and ecological projects was over 200 billion yuan [11]. - As of June 6, 2025, Guangdong, Jiangsu, and Shandong ranked top three in terms of local bond stock, with balances of 3.4 trillion, 3.28 trillion, and 3.08 trillion yuan respectively. Other GDP - large provinces such as Sichuan, Zhejiang, Hunan, Henan, Hebei, and Hubei also had stock balances above 2 trillion yuan [11]. 2. Primary Supply Rhythm - Last week, local government bonds worth 10.9594 billion yuan were issued, including 4.084 billion yuan of new special bonds and 3.3536 billion yuan of refinancing special bonds. "Ordinary/project revenue" and "repayment of local bonds" were the main investment areas for special bond funds [19]. - As of June 6, 2025, the issuance of special refinancing special bonds in June had reached 5.4394 billion yuan, accounting for 25.02% of the monthly local bond issuance scale [19]. - In terms of the issuance term structure, the issuance of local bonds with a term of 7 years or less last week had a relatively high proportion, reaching 39.77%. The average coupon rates of local bonds for each major term were basically the same as those two weeks ago. The spread between the issuance rate of 30 - year local bonds and the same - term treasury bonds widened to 21.89BP, and that of 20 - year local bonds widened to 13.9BP [28]. - From a new - bond subscription perspective, the upper limit of the bid rate last week decreased slightly compared to two weeks ago, and the primary bidding sentiment improved [28]. - Last week, 6 provinces had new issuances. Tianjin had the largest new local bond issuance this month, amounting to 4.3427 billion yuan, with terms mainly concentrated in 10 - 20 years and 20 - 30 years. The terms of other provinces were mainly concentrated in 7 years or less and 7 - 10 years. Except for Tianjin, the issuance rates of other provinces were below 2% [35]. 3. Secondary Trading Characteristics - As of June 6, 2025, the yield of 10 - year local bonds was 1.87%, and the spread with the same - term treasury bonds was 21.53BP, at the 68.4% quantile in the past 24 years. The price difference quantiles of 15 - year and 30 - year varieties were 76.1% and 84.3% respectively [37]. - Last week, the turnover rates of local bonds for each major term decreased. The 10 - year - plus variety had the highest weekly turnover rate, at 0.85%. Shandong, Sichuan, Guangdong, and Jiangsu had more trading volumes last week, all exceeding 100 transactions [44]. - Last week, the average trading term of local bonds was 14 years, and the average yield was 1.91% [44]. - In terms of the investor structure, commercial banks, insurance companies, securities proprietary departments, and broad - based funds were the most active institutions in local bond trading. Insurance companies remained the main undertakers of local bond supply, with a total net purchase of local bonds worth 23.291 billion yuan, of which the purchase of 20 - 30 - year - plus varieties accounted for 64.2%. In addition, securities companies had a net purchase of 12.069 billion yuan, and wealth management products had a net purchase of 3.422 billion yuan [49].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company, setting a target price of 7.23 RMB based on a 1.62x PB for 2025 [3]. Core Insights - The overall leasing industry in China has a penetration rate of approximately 12%, significantly lower than that of developed countries, indicating substantial room for growth [12][20]. - The company benefits from a dual strategy of volume and price, achieving steady growth through a "manufacturer + regional" approach, with a receivable leasing balance expected to reach 127.3 billion RMB by the end of 2024, reflecting an 11.80% year-on-year increase [23][24]. - The company maintains a net interest margin of over 3.6%, with asset yield significantly outperforming peers, supported by strong bargaining power with small and micro clients [30][38]. - The risk control system is robust, with a non-performing loan ratio consistently below 1%, and a provision coverage ratio of 430.27%, well above regulatory requirements [45]. Industry Overview - The leasing industry is characterized by a low market penetration rate, with significant potential for growth as regulatory measures tighten and the market consolidates [20]. - Enhanced regulatory frameworks are expected to benefit high-quality companies that can adapt to compliance and risk management requirements [20]. Company Advantages - The company employs a "manufacturer + regional" dual-line strategy to achieve stable growth, leveraging a network of over 5,800 manufacturers and dealers to enhance customer acquisition and risk mitigation [25][29]. - The net interest margin remains resilient, with a downward trend in funding costs contributing to improved profitability [30][39]. - The company has established a comprehensive risk control framework, ensuring asset quality remains high and non-performing loans are kept at minimal levels [45]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated at 5.826 billion RMB, 6.428 billion RMB, and 7.106 billion RMB, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of approximately 10.4%, 10.3%, and 10.6% [3][6]. - The forecasted net profit for the same years is 3.268 billion RMB, 3.613 billion RMB, and 4.003 billion RMB, with growth rates of 11.0%, 10.6%, and 10.8% [3][6].

- The "National General Aviation Industry Index" and "National Aerospace Industry Index" are constructed by selecting 50 securities related to the aviation industry from listed companies on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board and Beijing Stock Exchange, with listing times exceeding 1 year, and other securities listed for over 6 months. These indices reflect the price changes of securities related to the general aviation and aerospace industries in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing exchanges[3][28][30] - The "National General Aviation Industry Index" focuses on general aviation-related fields, including aviation materials, infrastructure, aircraft manufacturing, operational services, and application scenarios. The "National Aerospace Industry Index" is limited to the aerospace sector under the National Level 3 industry classification[28][30] - The sample selection method for the "National General Aviation Industry Index" involves sorting securities by average daily market capitalization over the past six months and excluding the bottom 10% in terms of average daily trading volume. The "National Aerospace Industry Index" uses average daily free-float market capitalization and average daily trading volume for ranking and selection[28][30] - Weight distribution for the "National General Aviation Industry Index" limits individual stocks in the aircraft manufacturing sector to a maximum weight of 10%, while other sectors are capped at 2%. The "National Aerospace Industry Index" caps individual stock weights at 15%, with the top five stocks collectively limited to 60%[29][30] - As of June 5, 2025, the "National General Aviation Industry Index" covers 10 primary industries and 19 secondary industries, with 53.04% of its weight derived from the defense and military sector. The "National Aerospace Industry Index" is highly concentrated, with 96.24% of its weight from the defense and military sector, specifically 52% from the aerospace sub-sector[31][36][37] - The valuation levels of the indices are relatively low. As of June 5, 2025, the price-to-book ratios (PB) for the "National General Aviation Industry Index" and "National Aerospace Industry Index" are 2.33x and 3.29x, respectively, corresponding to the 32.80% and 52.90% percentile ranges since February 16, 2015[43][46][48] - The "National Aerospace Industry Index" demonstrates stronger expected earnings growth. From 2025 to 2027, its earnings per share (EPS) are projected to grow from 0.38 yuan to 0.78 yuan, while the "National General Aviation Industry Index" is expected to increase from 0.43 yuan to 0.76 yuan. Similarly, the net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to grow from 195.81 billion yuan to 308.27 billion yuan for the "National Aerospace Industry Index," compared to 185.07 billion yuan to 317.63 billion yuan for the "National General Aviation Industry Index"[49][53] - The return on equity (ROE) for the indices is favorable. As of June 5, 2025, the ROE for the "National General Aviation Industry Index" and "National Aerospace Industry Index" are 3.35% and 2.82%, respectively, outperforming the "Aerospace Index" at 2.41%[54][57] - Dividend yields for the indices are relatively high. As of June 5, 2025, the dividend yields for the "National General Aviation Industry Index" and "National Aerospace Industry Index" are 0.63% and 0.73%, respectively, exceeding the "China Military Index" at 0.58%[58][61]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the energy storage industry, expecting a significant increase in installed capacity in the coming years, particularly driven by market reforms and policy support [4][12][100]. Core Insights - The transition from a policy-driven mandatory storage model to a market-driven approach is anticipated to enhance investment returns in energy storage, leading to rapid growth in installed capacity [4][12]. - The report highlights that companies with core technological advantages, cost control capabilities, and lifecycle service advantages are likely to dominate the market as it becomes more competitive [4][12]. - The introduction of market mechanisms, such as the "mechanism electricity price" and the establishment of a comprehensive electricity spot market by the end of 2025, is expected to further stimulate the energy storage sector [4][5][6]. Summary by Sections Policy Developments - The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued a notice prohibiting the requirement of energy storage for new renewable energy projects, promoting market competition [5]. - Various provincial policies are being implemented to support energy storage, including financial subsidies and compensation standards for energy storage projects [5][6]. Market Trends - In Q1 2025, the newly installed capacity of energy storage projects in China was 5.03 GW, showing a slight year-on-year decline, but a significant increase is expected as the market adapts to new policies [7][12]. - The report forecasts that China's energy storage capacity will reach 54 GW in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 24% [12]. International Developments - In the U.S., the energy storage market is expected to see substantial growth, with new installations projected at 12.3 GW in 2024, driven by strong demand [16][19]. - European energy storage installations are also on the rise, with expectations of 12 GW in 2024, particularly in large-scale storage [33][34]. Investment Opportunities - The report recommends focusing on companies with established advantages in the energy storage sector, such as Sungrow Power Supply, CATL, and Aters, which are well-positioned to benefit from the growing demand in Europe and emerging markets [100].

Investment Rating - The report recommends direct beneficiaries in the express delivery and logistics sector, specifically focusing on companies like SF Holding, Debon Logistics, and JD Logistics, while also paying attention to franchise express companies like Zhongtong Express [4]. Core Insights - The demand for unmanned logistics vehicles is significant, providing cost reduction and efficiency improvements for express logistics companies. The unmanned logistics vehicle market has vast potential, with the city distribution market being a trillion-yuan market [2][18]. - The rapid decline in the cost of unmanned logistics vehicles, driven by advancements in technology and economies of scale, has laid the foundation for large-scale commercialization. For instance, the price of the new E6 model from Jiushi has dropped to 19,800 yuan, significantly lower than traditional logistics vehicles [2][29]. - Several listed express logistics companies have already invested in unmanned logistics vehicles, which will help them reduce costs and improve efficiency. For example, SF Holding has invested in 800 unmanned vehicles, potentially increasing profits by 4.6 billion yuan if all existing vehicles are replaced [3][51]. Summary by Sections 1. Unmanned Logistics Vehicle Applications and Rapid Product Iteration - Unmanned logistics vehicles are primarily used for last-mile delivery in express logistics, with applications extending to closed-loop logistics and fresh food delivery [1][11]. - Multiple companies, including startups and established logistics firms, are offering unmanned vehicle products, with costs decreasing significantly [1][14]. 2. Significant Demand for Unmanned Logistics Vehicles - Unmanned logistics vehicles can replace city distribution capacity, with the city distribution market size reaching 1.429 trillion yuan in 2022 [18][20]. - The rapid advancement in technology and the reduction in product prices are driving demand, supported by government policies promoting the commercialization of unmanned delivery services [2][25]. 3. Listed Express Logistics Companies' Engagement in Unmanned Logistics Vehicles - SF Holding and its subsidiary have invested in unmanned vehicle manufacturers, with significant vehicle deployment planned [3][51]. - JD Logistics has initiated operations in nearly 30 cities, focusing on short-haul and grid warehouse models [3][51]. - Debon Logistics has also engaged in unmanned vehicle technology, with potential profit increases from replacing existing vehicles [3][51]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies directly benefiting from unmanned logistics vehicles, particularly SF Holding, Debon Logistics, and JD Logistics, while also monitoring franchise express companies like Zhongtong Express [4].

存量市场特征 超长信用债行情持续。中短久期信用债收益率已接近年内低点，后续下行幅度存在约束，部分投资者倾向于拉长久期 赚取超额收益。与上周相比，2.2%以下收益率的存量超长信用债只数增加至 336 只。 一级发行情况 超长信用新债认购情绪回升。本周"25 国新控股 MTN001(稳增长扩投资专项债)"和"25 诚通控股 MTN001(稳增长扩 投资专项债)"两只稳增长扩投资专项债发行上量，合计发行规模 395 亿，带动超长信用新债供给量显著上升。不过 因本周超长新债发行只数偏低，平均发行利率受部分个券影响而出现较大的波动，超长产业新债票面利率上行至 2.42%。 好在票息的增加也推动了超长信用新债认购情绪的回暖，本周新债认购热度回升至 24 年来 50%左右分位。 二级成交表现 超长信用债表现稳定。最新一周 10 年以上国债指数领涨债市，超长信用债指数表现也比较稳定，10 年以上 AA+信用 债指数上涨 0.36%。 虽然从成交笔数上看，6 月超长信用债交投情绪出现降温，但 7 年以上信用债 TKN 成交占比读数仍显示超长信用债具 备不低的买盘热度，且成交收益与估值偏离幅度相比上周也未有较大波动。 投资者结构 ...

生产：电厂日耗季节性回升 通货膨胀：农产品价格指数强于去年同期 CPI：猪价弱势运行 PPI：油价持续反弹 经济增长：钢材转向累库 需求：钢材转向累库 风险提示 统计口径误差。数据统计大多为抽样，恐与现实情况有些许出入。 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 (1) 电厂日耗季节性回升。6 月 10 日，6 大发电集团的平均日耗为 73.6 万吨，较 6 月 3 日的 72.6 万吨上涨 1.4%。6 月 6 日，南方八省电厂日耗为 171.8 万吨，较 5 月 29 日的 169.1 万吨上涨 1.6%。 (2) 高炉开工率温和回落。6 月 6 日，全国高炉开工率 83.5%，较 5 月 30 日下降 0.3 个百分点；产能利用率 90.6%， 较 5 月 30 日下降 0.1 个百分点。6 月 6 日，唐山钢厂高炉开工率 95.2%，较 5 月 30 日上升 1.7 个百分点。 (3) 轮胎开工率二次回落。6 月 5 日，汽车全钢胎（用于卡车）开工率 63.5%，较 5 月 29 日下降 1.3 个百分点；汽车 半钢胎（用于轿车）开工率 73.9%，较 5 月 29 日下降 4.4 个百分点。 (4) 江浙地区织 ...

行业研究 不止于车载传感器，非车赛道激光雷达加速放量背景下，重点推荐全球激光雷达龙头速腾聚创、禾赛。 智能驾驶技术路线改变；L3/L4 渗透率不及预期；泛机器人视觉方案出现变动；国际关系端影响海外销售风险。 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 行业研究 内容目录 | 1. 车规市场：AEBS 新规有望推动激光标配，下沉化+高端化或牵引量价齐升 5 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1.1 ≤L2 辅助驾驶：AEBS 系统或将升级为强制性国标，标配车载激光雷达或提上日程 5 | | | | | | | | | 1.2 L3 有条件的自动驾驶："接管缓冲期+责任转移"，单车 4-5 颗激光雷达或为刚需 8 | | | | | | | | | 自动驾驶：Robotaxi 落地车型搭载 颗激光雷达，中美主流厂商进展提速 9 1.3 L4 7-10 | | | | | | | | | 1.4 规模扩容：成本下探+政策催化激活中低端市场，L3/4 高阶智驾有望构筑"通胀引擎" 10 | | | | | | | | | 2. 割 ...