分析师：赵中平（执业 S1130524050003） zhaozhongping＠gjzq.com.cn 分析师：许孟婕（执业 S1130522080003） xumengjie＠gjzq.com.cn 联系人：王译 wangyi9@gjzq.com.cn 永辉进入规模化调改阶段，618 电商全域协同趋势明显 核心观点 线下：永辉调改店超过 100 家，调改进入规模化新阶段 2025 年 06 月 22 日 商贸零售行业研究 买入（首次评级） 行业周报 证券研究报告 国金证券研究所 天猫：品牌主场，高净值用户驱动增长，国补及情绪价值品类表现亮眼；京东：全业态爆发，即时零售成亮点； 抖音电商：全域协同，中小商家崛起；快手电商：全域电商持续推进，货架场高增长；美团闪购：首次参与 618， 高单价品类爆发。 行业数据追踪 GMV 表现：根据国金数字未来 Lab，6 月第 2 周天猫+京东整体 GMV 同比-9.63%。 品类表现：根据国金数字未来 Lab，6 月第 2 周天猫+京东品类增速表现前 5 的为玩具、汽车及自行车、消费电 子、家用电器、鞋包。 2025 年 6 月 13 日，永辉全国第 100 家胖东来模 ...

行业观点更新： 投资建议 风险因素 地产竣工恢复速度低于预期；原材料价格大幅上涨；新品推广不及预期；汇率大幅波动。 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 家居板块：内销方面，5 月中国家具类社零同比+25.6%，1-5 月累计同比+21.4%。而根据渠道调研反馈，6 月以来 整体接单情况相对偏弱，国补对需求的刺激作用有一定疲软，或因部分刚性需求前期有所提前释放。其中软体家 居产品由于更新周期相对较快并且更新难度较低，Q2 软体家居企业预计多数有望同比实现增长，而定制家居企业 由于大宗渠道等影响，预计业绩相对仍有承压。外销维度，部分企业预计由于 Q2 抢出口，整体业绩表现相对较 优，而在关税风险仍存的背景下，重点仍关注后续具备自身较强成长逻辑或者具备海外产能优势，盈利有望底部 反转的企业。整体来看，建议重点关注 25 年业绩增长确定性高并且具备相对高股息支撑的内销龙头企业，此外 建议关注部分具备自身α或相关盈利底部反转型外销企业。 新型烟草：HNB 方面，6 月 9 日，glo hilo 正式在日本宫城县上市销售，从渠道调研来看，产品铺货速度较快并 且 BAT 渠道端已对 glo hilo 倾斜较多营销资源，整体产品陈 ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the AI/AR glasses supply chain and related industries, indicating a favorable investment environment in the second half of the year [1][13]. Core Insights - The launch of the Oakley Meta HSTN AI glasses by Meta and Oakley is expected to drive significant advancements in AI glasses applications in sports [1][13]. - The demand for AI-PCB and ASIC servers is projected to grow significantly, with strong orders reported from multiple AI-PCB companies [1][41]. - The communication sector is experiencing optimism due to the anticipated increase in AI ASIC chip shipments and the expansion of the light module market [2][43]. Summary by Sections Electronic Industry Insights - Meta and Oakley have introduced a new AI glasses model, enhancing battery life to 8 hours and video resolution to 3K, with a starting price of $399 [1][13]. - The PCB industry is showing signs of recovery, with expectations of significant growth in the second quarter driven by demand from home appliances and automotive sectors [1][15]. - The component sector is witnessing an upward trend, with increased usage of MLCCs and higher prices due to product upgrades [1][29]. Communication Industry Insights - The market is optimistic about AI ASIC penetration, with Meta planning to release a new AI ASIC chip by 2025-2026, which is expected to significantly increase shipments [2][48]. - The light module sector is set to benefit from the growing demand for AI ASICs, with several companies positioned to capture market share [2][48]. Computer Industry Insights - The computer sector is currently in a transitional phase, with expectations of improved performance in the second half of the year as new technologies and products are introduced [3][41]. - The report highlights the importance of monitoring the performance of major companies as they adapt to macroeconomic conditions and potential recovery in demand [3][41].

本期 30/10Y 国债换手率、配置盘力度、上市公司理财买入量分位值下降幅度相对较大，1/10Y 国债换手率、全市场换 手率、政策利差分位值不同程度回升。 20 个微观指标中，位于过热区间的指标数量上升至 5 个（占比 25%）、位于中性区间的指标数量下降至 6 个（占比 30%）、 位于偏冷区间的指标数量上升至 9 个（占比 45%）。其中指标所处区间发生变化的是，1/10Y 换手率由中性区间升至过 热区间，市场利差则由中性区间降至偏冷区间。 分类别来看，①本期交易热度指标中，仅 30/10Y 国债换手率分位值下降 28 个百分点，其余指标分位值均回升，1/10Y 国债换手率、全市场换手率、机构杠杆分位值分别上升 21、22、10 个百分点，交易热度分位均值上升 4 个百分点。 ②机构行为类中，配置盘力度、上市公司理财买入量分位值分别下降 22、17 个百分点，其余指标分位值均小幅回升， 机构行为均值回落 4 个百分点。③市场利差回落 1 个百分点，政策利差分位值回升 11 个百分点，利差分位均值回升 5 个百分点。④股债比价分位值回落 2 个百分点，商品比价分位值上升 1 个百分点，其余比价指标变动不大， ...

重点关注上半年业绩增长确定性方向、AI-PCB 及算力硬件、半导体自主可控、苹果链及 AI 驱动受益产业链。 英伟达 GB200/300 积极拉货，2025、2026 年 ASIC 迎来爆发式增长，目前多家 AI-PCB 公司订单强劲，满产满 销，正在大力扩产，二、三季度业绩高增长有望持续，AI 覆铜板也需求旺盛，随着英伟达 GB200 及 ASIC 的放 量，AI 服务器及交换机大量转向采用 M8 材料，由于海外 AI 覆铜板扩产缓慢，大陆覆铜板龙头厂商有望积极受 益，看好核心受益公司。建议重点关注算力核心受益硬件，自主可控受益方向、苹果链及 AI 驱动受益产业链。 细分行业景气指标：消费电子（稳健向上）、PCB（加速向上）、半导体芯片（稳健向上）、半导体代工/设备/材料 /零部件（稳健向上）、显示（底部企稳）、被动元件（稳健向上）、封测（稳健向上）。 电子周观点： Me ta 发布 AI 运动眼镜，建议关注 AI/AR 眼镜受益产业链。6 月 20 日，Meta 和运动眼镜品牌 Oakley 推出无显 示屏全新 AI 眼镜 Oakley Meta HSTN，推动 AI 眼镜在滑雪/登山/骑行等运动领域深度 ...

建议关注国内生成式大模型龙头科大讯飞；AI 硬件有望成为应用落地的新载体，建议关注萤石网络、虹软科技 等；AI 相关功能打磨能够带动 C 端应用月活量、付费率提升，建议关注金山办公、万兴科技等。 风险提示 行业竞争加剧的风险；技术研发进度不及预期的风险；特定行业下游资本开支周期性波动的风险。 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 6 月 17 日，MiniMax 启动「MiniMax Week」技术周活动，陆续发布了多个成果：发布并开源的 MiniMax-M1 模 型采用了 Lightning Attention 机制的混合注意力架构，以高性价比和超长上下文处理能力引发行业关注。海螺 2.0 版本能够处理极端物理情况，在成本效率上创造了新的纪录。通用智能体 MiniMaxAgent 具备多步骤规划和分解 的能力，已在团队内部广泛使用。6 月 18 日，Midiourney 发布 AI 视频生成模型 V1，可将静态图像转化为动态 视频。自动模式下，AI 将自动生成动作提示词以驱动图像运动；手动模式则允许用户通过文本描述精确控制视频 中的动画效果。V1 支持分别适用于静态场景和动态场景的「低运动」和「高运动」两种模式。从 ...

风险提示 本周观点 关注海外资产的季报变化： 投资逻辑 法律框架逐步完善，虚拟资产趋势向上。1）港股整体观点：今年港股整体表现突出，各种板块、概念层出不穷， 底层逻辑来自于便宜资产的长期低估，大量内地优质资产在港 IPO，提升了港股的资产质量，吸引了全球流动资 金的关注、加持。另外，去美元化的全球投资策略和美国降息预期对港股的流动性利好。据此我们对港股的未来 趋势持续乐观。短期层面，由于估值、国际环境等问题，港股不排除震荡或者回调的风险，特别是对于前期涨幅 较大&估值较高的个股，短期回调属于健康调整。2）目前我们持续看多虚拟资产（含稳定币）的发展，近期包括 蚂蚁、META、贝莱德在内的传统互联网、金融机构向虚拟资产和稳定币延申的趋势明显。我们认为，稳定币政策 只是虚拟资产大趋势下的一环，未来还会有更多政策制度出台，持续看好。美国、香港的虚拟资产相关法律框架 逐步完善，虚拟资产趋势向上。 后续政策不及预期风险；中美关系变化风险；内容上线及表现不及预期风险；宏观经济运行不及预期风险；AI 技 术迭代和应用不及预期风险；政策监管风险。 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 教育：K12 教培行业高景气维持，非学科产品合规优 ...

证券板块 证监会将推动落实一揽子举措深化科创改革，有利于增强资本市场活力、促进创投行业发展。证监会主席吴清在 2025 陆家嘴论坛的主旨演讲中表示，证监会将推动落实深化科创改革的一揽子举措。其核心在于强化多层次资本市场枢纽 功能，促进科技创新与产业创新深度融合。我们预计相关举措落地后，将进一步畅通"科技-资本-产业"良性循环， 为科创企业提供有力支持，并显著增强资本市场活力，创投行业有望直接受益。 投资建议：建议关注四条主线：（1）港交所：ADT 增长有望驱动业绩与估值提升（25/05 ADT 为 2103 亿元，同比+50%； 累计 ADT 为 2423 亿元；截至 25/05 末上市公司数量 2633 家，同比+23 家）。（2）四川双马：创投行业或会迎来进一步 政策催化，科技赛道占优，创投业务有望受益。公司管理基金的已投项目——奕斯伟科技（2024/12/24 状态更新为已 问询）、奕斯伟计算技术（2025/5/30 向港交所递交上市申请）、邦德激光（高端装备，2024/1/3 进行上市辅导备案）、 屹唐半导体（2025/3/13 证监会批复注册）、群核科技（"杭州六小龙"之一，2025/2/14 向港 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The nuclear fusion sector is entering a period of intensive capital expenditure, with ongoing tenders for auxiliary power systems, suggesting significant investment opportunities in related companies [6][24] - The "marine economy" and "deep-sea technology" policies are emerging, highlighting the importance of high-end marine equipment manufacturing, particularly in shipbuilding and deep-sea robotics [6][25] - Demand for forklifts is slightly better than expected, with sales in May reaching 123,472 units, a year-on-year increase of 11.8%, indicating potential growth in the smart logistics and robotics sectors [6][25] - The general machinery sector is experiencing a slowdown, while engineering machinery shows a stable upward trend, and railway equipment is also on the rise [26][36][47] Summary by Sections Market Review - The SW Machinery Equipment Index fell by 2.16% in the week of June 16-20, 2025, ranking 19th among 31 primary industry categories [3][14] - Year-to-date, the SW Machinery Equipment Index has risen by 3.75%, ranking 8th among the same categories [3][18] Key Data Tracking - General machinery is experiencing a downturn, with May manufacturing PMI at 49.5, indicating a contraction [26] - Engineering machinery sales in May reached 18,200 units, with a year-on-year increase of 2.1%, indicating a stable market [36] - Railway fixed asset investment and passenger volume are both showing positive growth, suggesting a recovery in demand [47] Industry Dynamics - The nuclear fusion sector is seeing significant capital investment, with individual experimental pile projects costing tens to hundreds of billions [6][24] - The marine economy is being prioritized by government policies, with a focus on shipbuilding and deep-sea technology [6][25] - The oil service equipment sector is stabilizing at the bottom, with potential for recovery driven by geopolitical factors and OPEC's production decisions [51] Investment Recommendations - Suggested stocks to watch include Hezhong Intelligent, Lianchuang Optoelectronics, China Shipbuilding, and China CRRC, among others [12]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the outdoor apparel sector, particularly with the anticipated IPO of Berghaus, which is expected to boost market sentiment [10][19]. Core Insights - The beauty and personal care sector showed strong performance during the 618 shopping festival, with domestic brands gaining momentum and top brands maintaining a stable market position [1]. - Berghaus, a leading high-performance outdoor apparel brand, reported a revenue of 1.766 billion yuan in 2024, marking a 94.5% year-on-year increase, with a three-year CAGR of 116% [2][11]. - The report highlights the growth of domestic beauty brands during the 618 festival, with significant sales increases across various platforms [1][2]. Industry Data Tracking - Retail sales in May showed a year-on-year growth of 4.0%, indicating a recovery in consumer spending, aided by favorable weather and the early 618 promotions [20][23]. - The report tracks various industry segments, indicating a stable upward trend in outdoor sports, beauty, and medical aesthetics sectors, while other segments like textile raw materials are under slight pressure [3]. Investment Recommendations - For the apparel sector, the report recommends brands like Hailan Home, which is adapting to consumer trends and has strong profitability potential [4][31]. - In the beauty sector, it suggests focusing on companies like Juzhi Biotechnology and Jinbo Biotechnology, which are expected to perform well in the upcoming periods [4][31]. Market Review and News - The report notes that the textile and apparel sector experienced a decline of 5.12% in the recent week, with specific companies like Li Ning and Fengzhu Textile showing positive performance [5][27]. - It also highlights the digital transformation initiatives in the textile industry, aiming for over 70% digitalization in key business processes by 2027 [33].