Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the steel industry, but it implies a cautious outlook based on current market conditions and inventory levels [96]. Core Insights - The steel industry is currently in a raw material stocking phase, with steel mills increasing iron ore imports while steel inventories remain low, indicating a potential weak willingness to stockpile due to low price differentials and weak expectations for post-holiday production [1][11]. - Raw material prices have remained stable, with domestic steel price differentials decreasing by 2.9 CNY, leading to a loss of 37.9 CNY per ton for steel companies, and a slight decline in profitability to 39.4% [1][11]. - The CITIC Steel Index decreased by 2.0%, underperforming the broader market by 1.6%, while the performance of general steel stocks remained relatively stable [1][11]. Summary by Sections 1. Steel Industry Overview & Index Performance - Steel mills are in a raw material stocking phase, with iron ore imports increasing and steel inventories low, indicating a cautious approach to stocking [1][11]. - The profitability of steel companies has slightly decreased to 39.4%, reflecting the impact of rising raw material prices on financial performance [1][11]. 2. Subsector Fundamentals - Hot-rolled coil prices have slightly decreased, with the average price for 3.0mm hot-rolled coil at 3355 CNY/ton, down 1 CNY/ton from last week [12]. - Social inventory of hot-rolled coils decreased by 2.82 million tons week-on-week, and 10.30 million tons month-on-month [12]. 3. Black Industry Chain Price Data Update - The price index for metallurgical coke has remained stable, with trade-out prices for first-grade coke at 1470 CNY/ton and second-grade coke at 1570 CNY/ton [13]. - The average daily production of iron concentrate from 186 mining companies is 469,500 tons, with a slight increase in inventory [14]. 4. Black Industry Chain Supply and Demand Data Update - Iron ore prices have shown mixed trends, with the 66% iron concentrate price in Tangshan at 978 CNY/ton, reflecting a 0.72% increase [14]. - The report indicates a continued increase in iron ore inventory at ports, suggesting a potential for price fluctuations in the coming weeks [14].

Investment Rating - The report recommends a positive outlook for the logistics and transportation sector, particularly highlighting companies like SF Holding and China National Aviation [2][4]. Core Insights - The express delivery sector saw a year-on-year growth of 2.3% in December, with major companies benefiting from price increases amid reduced competition [2]. - The logistics sector is experiencing a recovery in demand, with a recommendation for Haicheng Co. due to its focus on smart logistics [3]. - The aviation sector is expected to see improved profitability as supply constraints ease, with recommendations for China National Aviation and Southern Airlines [4]. Summary by Sections Transportation Market Review - The transportation index fell by 1.3% during the week of January 24-30, 2026, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index rose by 0.1%, indicating underperformance against the broader market [12]. Industry Fundamentals Tracking Shipping Ports - The shipping market is adjusting, with the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) at 1175.59 points, down 2.7% week-on-week and down 21.9% year-on-year [21]. - The dry bulk shipping index (BDI) increased by 14.2% week-on-week, indicating a positive trend in dry bulk demand [34]. Aviation Airports - In December 2025, civil aviation passenger volume reached 60.6 million, a 6% year-on-year increase, with domestic routes showing strong performance [53]. - Major airlines are expected to improve profitability, with China National Airlines and Southern Airlines highlighted for their potential [4]. Rail and Road - National railway passenger volume increased by 8.52% year-on-year in December 2025, while road freight volume showed a slight increase of 0.62% [72]. - The report notes a decline in truck traffic on highways, with a 3.32% decrease week-on-week [34]. Recommendations - The report recommends investing in SF Holding for its valuation and resilience, and in Haicheng Co. for its smart logistics initiatives [2][3]. - The aviation sector is also recommended for investment, particularly in China National Aviation and Southern Airlines due to expected profit recovery [4].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a "Neutral" investment rating for the industry, expecting a fluctuation range of -5% to 5% compared to the broader market over the next 3-6 months [50]. Core Insights - The coffee and tea beverage sector remains vibrant, with brands actively opening new stores despite seasonal fluctuations. Price competition is expected to ease following the end of promotional pricing by Kudi and rising coffee bean prices [3][11]. - The e-commerce sector continues to face pressure, with projected online retail sales of physical goods reaching 13,092.3 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a growth of 5.2% and accounting for 26.1% of total retail sales [3]. - Music streaming platforms are highlighted as quality internet assets driven by domestic demand, with a recommendation to focus on subscription platforms due to their profitability potential [3]. - The virtual asset and trading platform sector is experiencing volatility amid macroeconomic uncertainties, with recent developments in U.S. regulatory frameworks impacting market dynamics [3]. - The automotive service sector is expanding, with JD.com opening its first car modification center, indicating growth in the aftermarket segment [3]. - The AI and cloud sector is witnessing advancements in foundational model capabilities, leading to increased application deployment. The report suggests focusing on tech leaders with strong cash flow, such as Google and Microsoft in the U.S., and Tencent and Alibaba in China [3]. Summary by Sections 1.1 Consumer & Internet - The Hang Seng non-essential consumer index showed a cumulative decline of 0.53%, outperforming the Hang Seng index by 2.92 percentage points [8]. - Notable stock performances include Yum China (+1.57%) and Luckin Coffee (-0.15%), with several other brands experiencing declines [8][10]. 1.2 Platform & Technology 1.2.1 Streaming Platforms - The Hang Seng media index fell by 0.98%, underperforming the Hang Seng index by 3.36 percentage points [19]. - Key stock movements included Tencent Music (+3.07%) and Spotify (-2.51%) [19][20]. 1.2.2 Virtual Assets & Trading Platforms - As of January 30, the global cryptocurrency market cap was $296.04 billion, down 4.72%. Bitcoin and Ethereum prices fell by 5.9% and 8.4%, respectively [25][27]. 1.2.3 Automotive Aftermarket - The Hang Seng composite index rose by 1.78%, with Advance Auto Parts (+2.65%) leading the gains [33]. 1.2.4 O2O - The Hang Seng internet technology index declined by 1.16%, with notable stock performances including Beike-W (+5.48%) and Didi Global (-5.04%) [38]. 1.2.5 AI & Cloud - The Nasdaq internet index decreased by 1.45%, with Meta (+8.77%) and Google A (+3.07%) showing positive movements [44].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the small metals sector, with expectations of price increases and performance improvements in the coming months [58]. Core Insights - The small metals index rose by 7.49% during the reporting period, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 8.03% [12]. - The report highlights significant price movements in various metals, with rare earth elements showing strong price increases, particularly praseodymium and neodymium oxide, which rose by 11.03% to 748,700 CNY/ton [2][13]. - The report emphasizes the ongoing supply-side reforms and the increasing demand for rare earths, particularly in the context of global inventory replenishment needs [15][17]. Summary by Sections Stock Market and Commodity Price Performance - The small metals index closed at 38,048.84 points, reflecting a 7.49% increase, which is 2.11 percentage points lower than the non-ferrous metals index [12]. - Key commodity prices showed varied trends, with praseodymium oxide increasing by 11.03%, dysprosium oxide decreasing by 10.74%, and tungsten concentrate rising by 19.24% [13]. Main Product Fundamentals and Views Rare Earths - The price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide reached 748,700 CNY/ton, driven by supply-side reforms and increased processing fees [2][15]. - The report suggests that the rare earth sector will continue to see valuation and performance improvements, with 2026 being a critical year for resolving competitive issues within the industry [17]. Tin - Tin ingot prices increased by 2.17% to 423,600 CNY/ton, with expectations of continued upward trends due to supply constraints from Indonesia and Myanmar [3][24]. - The demand for tin is anticipated to benefit from the recovery in semiconductors and automotive electronics [24]. Tungsten - Tungsten concentrate prices rose by 19.24% to 600,700 CNY/ton, supported by increased strategic reserves in the U.S. and domestic demand [3][33]. - The report highlights the potential for sustained price increases due to military and civilian demand [33]. Antimony - Antimony ingot prices increased by 1.26% to 164,100 CNY/ton, with expectations of price recovery driven by export improvements [4][40]. - The report notes a significant drop in antimony exports, indicating potential for future price increases as demand stabilizes [40]. Molybdenum - Molybdenum concentrate prices remained stable at 4,010 CNY/ton, with molybdenum iron prices rising by 0.79% to 256,000 CNY/ton [5][43]. - The report suggests that low inventory levels and increased defense spending may support future price increases [43].

核心观点 完善发电侧容量电价机制，火电或迎容量电价超额上涨 本周五，发改委、能源局联合印发《关于完善发电侧容量电价机制的通知》，分类完善煤电、气电、抽蓄容量电价 机制，并首次在国家层面明确电网侧独立新型储能容量电价机制，关键要素如下：（1）对于火电，因部分地区煤电利 用小时数快速下降，因此将补偿固定成本比例提升至不低于 50%，可根据实际情况进一步提升，对于煤电市场化交易 电价下限不再统一执行 20%，而由各地合理确定下限，同时放宽长协签约比例要求，鼓励电价与成本变化相结合；（2） 对于抽蓄，现行电价机制对企业成本约束不足，因此对 633 号文出台后开工的电站，实行弥补平均成本的一省一价的 统一容量电价，电站可自主参与市场交易；（3）对于电网侧独立新型储能，以煤电容量电价为基础，根据满功率连续 放电时长/全年最长净负荷高峰持续时长确定折算比例，预计各省差异较大，如目前甘肃省将持续时长设置为 6 小时； （4）有序建立发电侧可靠容量补偿机制，在现货市场连续运行后，对本省机组可靠容量按统一原则补偿；（5）对于 可靠容量充裕或用户经济承受能力较弱地区，严控新增调节性电源项目。 火电盈利模型变革得到进一步明确，关注火 ...

单击或点击此处输入文字。 核心观点： 机器人：景气度加速向上，特斯拉三代机器人即将发布，多家机器人本体联袂亮相春晚。 特斯拉三代机器人即将发布，Modle S/X 产线将改建为机器人产线。1 月 29 日，马斯克在 2025 业绩交流会上表示， 第三代 Optimus 预计数月内推出，定位为通用型人形机器人，可通过观察、语言和视频学习任务。机器人在灵巧手、 现实场景智能和规模化制造三大核心能力上具备系统性优势。产能规划方面，弗里蒙特工厂的 Model S/X 产线将改造 为 Optimus 生产基地，长期目标年产 100 万台。由于供应链完全从零构建，产能爬坡将呈相对平缓的 S 曲线。长 期来看，Optimus 对美国 GDP 具备显著拉动潜力，是长期最具颠覆性的增长方向之一。 宇树科技等四家具身厂商合作总台春晚，机器人将走进大众视野。今年央视春晚已汇聚宇树科技、松延动力、魔法原 子、银河通用等四家机器人企业。今年春晚机器人阵容已覆盖从双足人形到轮式具身智能的多条技术路线。其中，三 家机器人公司为首次登陆春晚。2026 年春晚机器人合作伙伴阵容的扩大，将创下春晚机器人品牌集中亮相新纪录。 亚信科技、ABB 机 ...

需求恢复不及预期的风险；AIGC 进展不及预期的风险；外部制裁进一步升级的风险。 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 继续看好 AI-PCB 及核心算力硬件、苹果产业链及自主可控受益产业链。Meta 2026 年全年资本开支指引超预 期，闪迪 2026 第三财季业绩指引超预期。我们继续看好覆铜板及存储芯片涨价趋势，具有较强的持续性，从产 业链公司陆续公布的营收及利润来看，业绩在持续兑现，继续看好核心受益公司。继续看好 AI-PCB 及核心算力 硬件、苹果产业链及自主可控受益产业链。 细分行业景气指标：消费电子（稳健向上）、PCB（加速向上）、半导体芯片（稳健向上）、半导体代工/设备/材料 /零部件（稳健向上）、显示（底部企稳）、被动元件（稳健向上）、封测（稳健向上）。 北美大厂 AI 开支超预期，存储业绩持续爆发。Meta 预计 2026 年全年资本支出在 1150 亿至 1350 亿美元之间， 主要用于数据中心、服务器和网络基础设施，较 25 年的约 700 亿美元 CAPEX 实现显著增长。我们看到 AI 对 meta 自身业务实现了积极帮助，AI 改进了推荐算法，直接导致用户在平台上的停留时间增加，新的序列学 ...

Investment Rating - The report highlights a positive investment outlook for Keda Manufacturing and recommends Shengfeng Cement as a key stock for February [2][12]. Core Insights - Keda Manufacturing's acquisition of the remaining 51.55% stake in Tefu International is viewed positively, with projected revenues of 8.187 billion yuan and net profits of 1.474 billion yuan by 2025 [2]. - Shengfeng Cement is favored due to its resilient business model, low production costs, and significant investments in new economic projects exceeding 1.9 billion yuan [2]. - The report emphasizes the potential for price increases in traditional electronic fabrics and related materials, driven by AI demand and copper price fluctuations [3][15]. - The trend towards space photovoltaic energy is highlighted, with a focus on UTG and TCO glass as essential materials for future energy solutions [4][14]. Summary by Sections Weekly Discussion - Keda Manufacturing's stock resumption is positively received, and the acquisition strengthens its strategic partnerships [2]. - Shengfeng Cement is recommended for its stable core business and cash flow from new investments [2]. Market Performance - The construction materials index showed a mixed performance, with glass manufacturing and fiberglass sectors performing well, while cement manufacturing faced slight declines [19][21]. Price Changes in Construction Materials - National average cement price decreased to 345 yuan/ton, with a slight increase in sales rates [16]. - Float glass prices increased to 1,144.80 yuan/ton, reflecting a 0.53% rise, while inventory levels decreased slightly [16][39]. Important Changes - Several companies released performance forecasts, and Keda Manufacturing announced a capital increase plan for the acquisition of Tefu International [6].

投资逻辑 本周迎来众多宏观事件，包括美联储 1 月议息会议维持利率不变，中止了自 2025 年 9 月以来的连续 3 次降息；特朗 普提名沃什为美联储主席候选人，沃什此前表示倾向于降低利率和缩减资产负债表；此外，美国部分政府部门将停摆， 关注 2 月 2 日众议院投票结果。受降息中止、美联储主席候选人鹰派表态影响，本周加密货币总市值环比上周下滑 6.0%。比特币收盘价为 84,129 美元/枚，环比上周下滑 6.0%；以太坊收盘价为 2,702 美元/枚，环比上周下滑 8.5%。 芝商所 FedWatch 预计 2026 年 6 月、10 月美联储分别降息 25bp。虽然周内成交额环比上周增长，期权市场看好 Q2 行情，但链上持仓均价持续下滑、周内情绪转冷。 全球政策与产业新闻方面：美国参议院农业委员会通过 Clarity Act，仍需参议院银行委员会批准。Tether 正式推出符 合美国规定的 USAT；至 2025 年末共持有 52 万盎司黄金，占投资组合比重的 7%，计划未来提升占比至 10~15%。 比特币算力受美国极端天气影响而下滑，美国最大矿池 Foundry USA 算力下降约 60%，目前算力 ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the gold jewelry sector, indicating that consumer enthusiasm remains strong despite fluctuations in gold prices, particularly during the Chinese New Year [10][24]. Core Insights - On January 30, gold prices experienced significant volatility, yet consumer interest in Lao Pu gold stores remained high, showcasing the brand's growing influence [10]. - Promotional activities at Lao Pu gold stores and SKP malls are expected to sustain high-end gold brand consumption during the Spring Festival, with various discounts and gifts driving consumer demand [10]. - Lao Pu gold's fixed-price model contrasts with competitors that price by weight, leading to stronger consumer expectations for price increases, thus insulating the brand from gold price fluctuations [10]. - The report highlights that despite a drop in gold prices at the end of January 2026, certain Lao Pu stores in Shanghai and Beijing continued to see long queues, indicating strong brand appeal during price volatility [10]. Industry Data Tracking - According to Guojin Digital Future Lab, the overall GMV for Tmall and JD.com in the fourth week of December increased by 49.2% year-on-year [11]. - The top five categories in terms of growth during this period were books and audio-visual products, automotive and bicycles, watches, toys, and shoes and bags [11]. Market Review - For the week of January 26 to January 30, 2026, the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, CSI 300, Hang Seng Index, and Hang Seng Tech Index recorded changes of -0.44%, -1.62%, 0.08%, 2.38%, and -1.38% respectively, while the retail sector saw a gain of 4.18% [17]. - Notable stock performances included *ST Huike, Yiyaton, Yiwan Yichuang, Yuyuan Co., and Kaichun Co., which saw gains attributed to AI application catalysts [17]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on cross-border e-commerce, particularly companies with strong brand power and product differentiation, which are expected to show resilience in performance [24]. - In the gold jewelry sector, the report anticipates that consumer enthusiasm will remain strong despite high baseline figures in January, with same-store growth expected to continue [24]. - The report highlights the potential for companies like Chao Hong Ji, which is expected to benefit from new product launches and an increase in self-produced products, driving profitability [24]. - The duty-free sector is also noted for its potential growth, particularly with the launch of the Hainan Free Trade Port, which is expected to significantly impact local and national duty-free businesses [24].