Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on AI applications, particularly highlighting the global download of Alibaba's Qianwen model exceeding 1 billion [2]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the sustained high demand in the coffee industry, with brands actively opening new stores despite seasonal fluctuations [4]. - The e-commerce sector is under pressure, with projected online retail sales of physical goods reaching 13,092.3 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a growth of 5.2% [4]. - The music streaming platform is identified as a high-quality internet asset driven by domestic demand, with a recommendation to focus on subscription platforms [4]. - The virtual asset and trading platform sector is experiencing macroeconomic uncertainties, with notable revenue growth forecasts for OSL [4]. - The automotive service sector is seeing new entrants like Meituan, indicating a growing interest in the automotive aftermarket [4]. - The report highlights advancements in Robotaxi technology and the launch of AI applications in healthcare, suggesting a focus on these sectors [4]. - The AI and cloud segment is noted for its growth potential, with significant developments from Alibaba and OpenAI [4]. - The media sector shows positive trends in gaming, particularly with AI gameplay receiving favorable feedback [4]. Summary by Sections 1.1 Consumer & Internet - Coffee industry remains vibrant with brands expanding despite seasonal challenges [4]. - E-commerce faces challenges with a projected online retail sales growth of 5.2% by 2025 [4]. 1.2 Platform & Technology - Music streaming platforms are highlighted as valuable assets, with a focus on subscription services [4]. - The virtual asset market is under pressure but shows potential for revenue growth, particularly for OSL [4]. - The automotive service sector is expanding with new players entering the market [4]. - Significant advancements in Robotaxi technology and AI applications in healthcare are noted [4]. - The AI and cloud sector is experiencing growth, with Alibaba's Qianwen model achieving over 1 billion downloads [4]. 1.3 Media - The gaming sector is performing well, with positive feedback on AI gameplay mechanics [4].

Group 1: Copper - The LME copper price increased by 0.25% to $12,840.0 per ton, while the Shanghai copper price rose by 0.57% to ¥101,300 per ton [1] - Copper concentrate processing fees fell to -$49.79 per ton, and national copper inventory increased by 2.9% week-on-week, with a year-on-year increase of 203,000 tons [1][13] - The operating rate of copper cable enterprises increased by 2.72 percentage points to 58.71%, with a year-on-year increase of 15.87% [1][13] Group 2: Aluminum - The LME aluminum price rose by 0.29% to $3,137.5 per ton, and the Shanghai aluminum price increased by 1.53% to ¥24,300 per ton [2][14] - The operating rate of domestic aluminum processing enterprises fell by 6.3 percentage points to 51.1% due to the upcoming Spring Festival [2][14] - Electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 6,000 tons to 743,000 tons [2][14] Group 3: Gold - COMEX gold price increased by 6.88% to $4,938.4 per ounce, with SPDR gold holdings rising by 4.86 tons to 1,079.66 tons [3][15] - Geopolitical risks have led to a strong fluctuation in the gold market [3][15] - The 10-year TIPS yield decreased by 0.07 percentage points to 1.95% [3][15] Group 4: Rare Earths - The price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide decreased by 0.25% to ¥672,700 per ton [4][36] - December exports of rare earth permanent magnets increased by 7% year-on-year, indicating a recovery in exports [4][36] - The rare earth sector is expected to see upward price momentum due to supply constraints and favorable export conditions [4][36] Group 5: Tungsten - Tungsten prices increased by 5.54% this week, supported by tight supply conditions [4][38] - The establishment of a $2.5 billion "strategic resilience reserve" in the U.S. may elevate tungsten's priority [4][38] - The price of ammonium paratungstate rose by 6.06% to ¥790,500 per ton [4][38] Group 6: Tin - Tin prices increased by 2.19% to ¥423,700 per ton, with inventory rising by 1.79% to 9,720 tons [4][38] - Supply from Indonesia and Myanmar remains below expectations, supporting an upward price trend [4][38] - The demand outlook is positive due to recovery in semiconductor and photovoltaic sectors [4][38] Group 7: Lithium - The average price of lithium carbonate rose by 0.8% to ¥159,500 per ton, while lithium hydroxide increased by 2.0% to ¥156,900 per ton [4][63] - Lithium production decreased slightly, with total output at 22,200 tons, down by 40 tons [4][63] - The market is experiencing strong demand, with signs of pre-holiday stocking [4][63] Group 8: Cobalt - Cobalt prices decreased by 3.7% to ¥437,000 per ton, while cobalt intermediate prices increased by 1.5% to $25.75 per pound [5][65] - Supply tightness is expected to persist, with domestic prices showing upward momentum [5][65] - The market structure remains tight due to limited liquidity and long transportation cycles [5][65]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautious outlook on the liquor industry, particularly on high-end liquor such as Moutai, with expectations of gradual recovery in sales and pricing stability post-Spring Festival [10][11][12]. Core Insights - The high-end liquor segment, especially Moutai, is experiencing a sales boost as the Spring Festival approaches, with expectations of price recovery due to increased demand driven by wealth effects [10][11]. - The report suggests that the market's concerns about post-festival price drops for Moutai are likely to be unfounded, predicting only minor seasonal fluctuations [10][12]. - The overall sentiment in the liquor industry is shifting from a pessimistic outlook to a more stable one, with expectations of improved sales dynamics as external constraints on consumption ease [11][12]. Summary by Sections Liquor Industry - The report highlights that Moutai's sales are performing better than previously cautious expectations, leading to a price recovery for both Moutai and newer Moutai products [10]. - It is noted that the market is still wary of potential price declines after the Spring Festival, but historical patterns suggest only minor adjustments are likely [10][11]. - The report emphasizes the importance of brand strength and market positioning for high-end liquor companies, recommending investments in brands with strong market presence and growth potential [12]. Beer Industry - The beer sector is seeing a steady recovery in on-premise consumption, with companies diversifying into non-drink channels and soft drinks [12]. - The report suggests that the beer industry's performance is expected to stabilize, with a focus on maintaining competitive pricing and improving dividend yields [12]. Snack Industry - The snack sector is benefiting from pre-Spring Festival stocking and product innovation, with companies like Qiaqia and Ganyuan expected to show significant profit elasticity due to low comparative bases [14]. - The report recommends focusing on leading snack companies that are expanding their store presence and adapting their product offerings [14]. Beverage Industry - The soft drink sector is currently facing challenges due to seasonal demand fluctuations and competition from ready-to-drink tea brands, leading to a slight decline in overall sales growth [14]. - Despite these challenges, leading brands like Dongpeng and Nongfu are expected to maintain double-digit growth through brand strength and market share consolidation [14]. Seasoning Industry - The seasoning sector is stabilizing as restaurant demand begins to recover, with expectations of improved performance in 2026 driven by seasonal effects [15]. - The report highlights companies like Angel Yeast and Qianhe Condiments as having strong growth potential due to favorable market conditions and dividend yields [15].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the innovative drug sector, indicating it will continue to be a core investment direction in 2026 due to the maturation of the industry chain and normalization of medical insurance negotiations [4]. Core Insights - The public fund's pharmaceutical holdings decreased to 8.11% in Q4 2025, down by 1.66 percentage points (pp) from the previous quarter. Excluding actively managed pharmaceutical funds, the holdings dropped to 3.90%, a decrease of 1.36pp [11][12]. - The innovative drug ETF reached a scale of 100.62 billion yuan in Q4, accounting for 13.11% of the pharmaceutical fund, which is a slight decrease of 1.35pp [13][15]. - The CXO sector saw a decline in holdings due to geopolitical disturbances, while the medical device sector benefited from innovations like brain-computer interfaces and surgical robots, leading to an increase in holdings [14][17]. - The report highlights the acquisition of PART by GSK for $2.2 billion to strengthen its position in the IgE antibody market, with the core product Ozureprubart showing significant market potential [2][31]. - The oral weight loss drug Wegovy has shown strong early commercial progress, with retail prescriptions reaching approximately 3,071 in the first four days post-launch, nearly three times that of its competitor Zepbound [2][31]. Summary by Sections Pharmaceutical Sector - The report indicates a significant decrease in public fund holdings in the pharmaceutical sector, with a noted resilience in the innovative drug segment [11][14]. - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on leading companies with core pipeline competitiveness and global layout capabilities for investment [4]. Medical Devices - The introduction of new pricing guidelines for auxiliary medical services is expected to accelerate the adoption of innovative products in the medical device sector [3][17]. - The report suggests monitoring domestic leading companies in this sector for increasing product penetration [3]. Drugstores - The report discusses the potential for leading drugstore companies to increase market share, supported by recent government policies promoting high-quality development in the retail pharmaceutical industry [3][17]. - Specific companies like Yifeng Pharmacy and Dazhenglin are highlighted as having low valuations and significant cost reduction achievements [3]. CXO and Pharmaceutical Supply Chain - Several CXO companies have released optimistic earnings forecasts for 2025, indicating a clear upward trend in industry prosperity [2][31]. - The report recommends active investment in this sector due to the positive signals regarding industry growth [2][31].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the industry, highlighting a "golden window period" for the short drama sector, with expectations for significant growth in the coming years [2][11]. Core Insights - The short drama industry has reached a scale of nearly 1 trillion yuan, surpassing both the film and long video sectors, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 50% from 2023 to 2026 [11]. - The market for animated dramas is expected to exceed 22 billion yuan by 2026, contributing 50% of the incremental growth in the short drama industry [11]. - ByteDance is positioned as the absolute leader in the animated drama sector, leveraging its "traffic + IP + AI" integrated strategy to dominate the market [2][17]. - The application of AI technology is transforming the production paradigm of animated dramas, reducing production cycles from over 50 days to under 30 days and significantly lowering costs [3][21]. Summary by Sections Section 1: The Golden Window for Short Dramas - The short drama market has surpassed 1 trillion yuan, with user engagement increasing, and the average daily viewing time expected to exceed 100 minutes by 2025 [11]. - The market has entered a phase of rapid growth and commercialization, with significant increases in both supply and demand for animated dramas [11][12]. Section 2: AI Reshaping Production Paradigms - AI technologies are enabling a shift from manual production to industrialized generation, with production costs dropping to the thousand-yuan level [3][21]. - The integration of AI in production processes is expected to streamline workflows, reducing the number of steps from 11 to 5 and cutting costs by 60% [3][24]. Section 3: Trends in AI Applications - The report anticipates a significant uptick in AI applications by 2026, driven by the need for software to leverage substantial computational investments [4][31]. - Companies are increasingly integrating AI into their business models, with some reporting that AI-related revenues account for over 10% of total income [4][31]. Section 4: Related Investment Targets - Key investment targets include companies such as DeCai Co., Zhaochi Co., and Wanxing Technology, among others, which are positioned to benefit from the growth in the animated drama and AI sectors [5][40].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the space photovoltaic industry, indicating it may become a new growth area within the photovoltaic sector [3][18]. Core Insights - The commercial aerospace industry in China has achieved significant milestones in areas such as reusable rocket technology and large satellite constellation networking, driving rapid development in the space photovoltaic sector [3][18]. - Space photovoltaic technology benefits from continuous sunlight in space, leading to much higher energy generation efficiency compared to ground-based systems, making it a key support for long-term stable energy supply for spacecraft [3][18]. - The demand for space photovoltaics is expected to grow due to the scaling of satellite networks and upgrades in onboard equipment, driven by both quantity and quality improvements [3][18]. - The long-term development potential of space photovoltaics is becoming increasingly clear, positioning it as a promising new growth area in the photovoltaic industry [3][18]. Related Companies - Potential companies in the space photovoltaic supply chain include: Maiwei Co., Ltd., Yujing Co., Ltd., Xinwei Communication, Lens Technology, Aotwei, Liancheng CNC, and Shuangliang Energy [3][23]. - Companies involved in rocket technology include: Aerospace Power, Feiwo Technology, Western Materials, Aerospace Electromechanical, Chaojie Co., Ltd., Srey New Materials, and Guanglian Aviation [3][23]. - Satellite-related companies include: China Satellite, Mingyang Smart Energy, Sanan Optoelectronics, Shanghai Hanhua, Zhenlei Technology, Aerospace Hongtu, Zhongke Xingtou, Haige Communication, China Satcom, and others [3][23]. - Companies in space computing include: Shunhao Co., Ltd. and Putian Technology [3][23]. - Companies in 3D printing include: Huashu High-Tech, Yinbang Co., Ltd., and Bolite [4][23].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the petrochemical sector, with the oil and petrochemical index outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 6.87% this week [10]. Core Insights - The report highlights that geopolitical risks are the primary drivers of oil price fluctuations, with current prices reflecting a rebound due to tensions involving Iran and production delays in Kazakhstan [15][16]. - The report notes that while supply fundamentals remain weak, geopolitical factors are currently dominating market sentiment, suggesting that unless there is a miscalculation regarding Iran, price increases driven by geopolitical conflicts may not be sustainable [15]. Market Overview - The oil and petrochemical sector indices showed significant weekly gains, with the petrochemical index rising by 8.16% and the refining and chemical index increasing by 7.58% [10]. - As of January 23, WTI crude oil was priced at $61.07 per barrel, up by $1.63, while Brent crude was at $68.73, up by $0.95 [16]. - The EIA reported a weekly increase in commercial crude oil inventories by 3.602 million barrels, with gasoline inventories also rising [16]. Oil Sector Analysis - The report indicates that U.S. crude oil production is at 13.732 million barrels per day, with a slight decrease in net imports [16]. - The active oil rig count in the U.S. increased by one to 411 rigs as of January 23 [16]. Refining Sector Insights - The average operating rate of domestic refineries increased to 78.78%, while independent refineries in Shandong saw a slight decrease in operating rates [16]. - The average refining margin for major refineries was reported at 761.48 yuan per ton, reflecting a slight decrease from the previous period [14]. Petrochemical Sector Insights - The PX-Naphtha spread has decreased to $330 per ton, while PTA processing fees have increased to 402 yuan per ton [15]. - The report notes that polyester production margins are showing signs of recovery, with POY150D average profit levels rising significantly [15]. Olefins Market Overview - The average price of ethylene decreased to 5,788 yuan per ton, while propylene prices in Shandong increased to 6,175 yuan per ton [15].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry, but it suggests a positive outlook for specific sectors within the mechanical equipment industry, particularly commercial aerospace and humanoid robotics [5][11]. Core Insights - The commercial aerospace sector is highlighted as a key area of growth, with China completing 50 launches in 2025, accounting for 54% of total space launches, and a significant increase in commercial satellite deployments [5]. - Humanoid robotics is positioned as a transformative industry, with expectations for public sales of humanoid robots by 2027, indicating a pivotal moment for the sector [5]. - The agricultural machinery sector shows positive trends, with both domestic demand and exports improving, particularly for large tractors [5]. - The report identifies various mechanical sub-sectors with differing performance outlooks, including general machinery under pressure, engineering machinery accelerating upward, and stable growth in railway equipment and gas turbines [5]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The SW Mechanical Equipment Index rose by 2.57% during the week of January 19-23, 2026, ranking 13th among 31 primary industry categories [13]. - Year-to-date, the index has increased by 10.16%, ranking 9th among the same categories, while the CSI 300 Index rose by 1.57% [16]. Key Data Tracking General Machinery - The general machinery sector remains under pressure, with a PMI of 50.1% in December, marking the first increase above the threshold in eight months [23]. - Forklift sales in December totaled 111,363 units, with domestic sales down by 5.17% and exports up by 7.97% [23]. Engineering Machinery - The engineering machinery sector is experiencing upward momentum, with excavator sales reaching 23,095 units in December, a year-on-year increase of 17.6% [32]. Railway Equipment - The railway equipment sector shows steady growth, with fixed asset investment maintaining around 6% growth since 2025 [41]. Shipbuilding - The shipbuilding sector is experiencing a slowdown, with the global new ship price index at 184.65, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 2.38% [43]. Oilfield Equipment - The oilfield equipment sector is stabilizing, with high demand in the Middle East and OPEC+ balancing pressures expected to support oil prices [45]. Industrial Gases - The industrial gases sector is expected to benefit from improved steel profitability due to declining raw material prices, leading to increased demand [49]. Gas Turbines - The gas turbine sector is showing robust growth, with GEV reporting a 39% year-on-year increase in new orders for gas turbines in the first three quarters of 2025 [51].

2026 年 01 月 24 日 连锁茶饮行业研究 买入（首次评级） 行业深度研究 证券研究报告 商贸零售组 分析师：于健（执业 S1130525070012 ） yu_j＠gjzq.com.cn 分析师：谷亦清（执业 S1130525080002 ） guyiqing＠gjzq.com.cn 市场扩容持续，供应链铸就头部壁垒 投资逻辑： 消费频次提升带动市场规模增长，行业步入成长期中后段。现制饮品场景拓宽，叠加对软饮结构性替代，带动消费频 次提升。按照"市场规模=目标人群数量×人均年消费频次×平均杯单价"测算我国现制饮品市场规模，伴随消费频 次持续提升，我国现制饮品市场规模有望持续增长。根据中商产业研究院数据，2023 年我国人均现制饮品消费频次 22 杯，2018-2023 年 CAGR 为 22.4%。我们预估 2024-2026 年人均现制饮品消费频次维持 22.4%CAGR 增长，测算得出我 国 2026 年现制饮品市场规模同比增长有望达 22%+。当前，行业门店数增速放缓，品牌数量呈现下降趋势，行业集中 度提升，步入成长期中后段。 供应链与产品力重塑竞争格局，头部品牌优势巩固。头部品牌凭借供应链与 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry, but it implies a cautious outlook due to recent market conditions and regulatory delays [34]. Core Insights - The cryptocurrency market experienced a significant decline, with a total market capitalization dropping by 6.5% to $3.02 trillion. Bitcoin and Ethereum prices fell by 6.3% and 10.4%, respectively [10][11]. - The fear and greed index shifted from neutral to fear, indicating a decrease in market sentiment [14]. - Upcoming Federal Reserve meetings are anticipated to maintain interest rates, with a high probability of no rate cuts in early 2026 [10]. - The Clarity Act's review has been postponed, affecting the regulatory landscape for cryptocurrencies [2][27]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The cryptocurrency market capitalization decreased by 6.5% this week, with Bitcoin closing at $89,504 and Ethereum at $2,953 [10][11]. - The market sentiment has turned cold, with the fear and greed index dropping to 35, indicating fear among investors [14] [10]. 2. Global Policy and Industry News - The Clarity Act is expected to be delayed until late February to March due to prioritization of housing policies in the Senate [2][27]. - The New York Stock Exchange plans to launch a 24/7 trading platform for tokenized securities, aiming to reduce counterparty risk [2][27]. - Vietnam is initiating a pilot program for licensing cryptocurrency trading platforms, with about 10 companies expressing interest [2][29]. 3. Company News - Bitmine received shareholder approval for a stock increase to facilitate future financing [30]. - Strive plans to raise $150 million through preferred stock issuance to purchase Bitcoin and repay debts [30]. - WhiteFiber forecasts preliminary revenues of $22.7 to $25.1 million for Q4 2025 [30]. 4. Investment Recommendations - As the earnings season approaches, attention is drawn to companies transitioning to AI data centers, particularly those with partnerships with Google and significant power reserves [4][32]. - Companies like Riot Platform and Hut 8 are highlighted for their potential in the evolving market landscape [32].