Investment Rating - The report suggests a cautious approach, indicating a "wait and see" strategy for investment opportunities in the current market environment [2][11]. Core Insights - The report highlights the impact of renewed US-China trade tensions on the Hong Kong and Chinese concept stocks, suggesting that major players like Alibaba are experiencing short-term profit-taking sentiment, which is seen as a healthy correction before further advancements in technology narratives [3][16]. - The cryptocurrency market is under significant short-term pressure, with high leverage and potential for systemic failures due to crowded trading conditions, indicating a lack of new narratives to drive growth [3][16]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring distressed or oversold stocks, particularly in the context of potential regulatory changes affecting cross-border internet brokerages and the recent implementation of new regulations in the online lending sector [3][16]. Industry Tracking Summary 1. Education - The Chinese education index fell by 3.14%, underperforming compared to major indices, with notable stock movements including NetEase Youdao rising by 11.55% and TAL Education declining by 9.94% [5][12]. 2. Luxury Goods and Gambling - The S&P Global Luxury Goods Index decreased by 4.42%, with major players like Melco Resorts and MGM China experiencing significant declines of 11.13% and 9.33%, respectively [21][22]. 3. Coffee and Tea - The coffee sector remains robust, with high growth potential, while the tea segment is facing pressure due to increased competition and seasonal effects [5][32]. 4. E-commerce - The e-commerce sector is experiencing a slowdown, with the Hang Seng Internet Technology Index dropping by 5.82%, and major companies like Alibaba and JD.com seeing significant declines in stock prices [39][40]. 5. Streaming Platforms - The media sector, particularly streaming services, is under pressure, with the Hang Seng Media Index down by 4.6%, while Netflix and Tencent Music showed some resilience [45][46]. 6. Virtual Assets and Internet Brokerages - The global cryptocurrency market capitalization fell by 10.4%, with Bitcoin and Ethereum prices decreasing by 7.4% and 1.4%, respectively, indicating ongoing volatility in the sector [49][54].

Investment Rating - The report suggests focusing on leading domestic generative AI model companies such as iFlytek, and AI hardware companies like Hikvision, Hongsoft Technology, and Hesai, as well as companies like Maifushi that can enhance paid rates and ARPU values [2] Core Insights - The AI industry is experiencing significant advancements, with OpenAI's release of the Sora 2 video model and the Sora App, which allows users to create interactive videos in AI-generated scenes. This model is seen as a major breakthrough in video generation technology [4][9] - The overall performance in the second quarter showed a slight decline, but the industry is on a recovery path, with leading companies demonstrating stronger resilience compared to the overall market. The AI industry chain, military information technology, and intelligent driving sectors are performing particularly well [9] - The report anticipates that the second half of the year will see improved operational strength due to low baselines and accelerated technology deployment, with a focus on AI-related sectors [9] - The report identifies high-growth areas for 2025, including AI computing power and lidar, while also noting stable growth in software outsourcing, financial IT, quantum computing, and data elements [10][11] Summary by Sections Industry Perspective - The AI industry is witnessing rapid advancements, with significant releases from major players like OpenAI and Tencent, indicating a trend towards more sophisticated AI applications [4][9] - The report highlights the importance of AI hardware and software integration, particularly in consumer and enterprise services, as well as the potential for private deployment of large models [9][10] Market Review - From September 29 to October 10, 2025, the computer industry index rose by 1.47%, underperforming compared to the CSI 300 index by 0.88 percentage points [11] - The report notes that the computer sector's performance is expected to improve as the market recovers and as companies adapt to new technologies [11] Upcoming Events - The report highlights key upcoming events, including the 10th China International Artificial Intelligence Conference and the 27th China International High-tech Achievements Fair, which are expected to present opportunities within the industry [24][25]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The AI application market is experiencing varied activity levels, with OpenAI launching its most powerful model, GPT-5Pro API, aimed at high-end markets such as research and law, priced at $15 per million tokens [12] - Intel has officially entered the 2nm era with its 18A node, marking a significant milestone in its manufacturing capabilities, although the yield and performance remain to be validated [18][22] - The Taiwanese storage industry is showing signs of recovery driven by AI demand, with companies like Phison and Winbond reporting significant revenue increases [24][27] - The Chinese smartphone market saw a decline in sales, with a 6.24% year-on-year drop in August 2025, while the PC market remained relatively stable [28][34] Summary by Sections AI Applications - The activity of AI chat applications has been affected by the holiday season, with notable changes in user engagement [10][12] - Google's new Gemini model aims to enhance AI's ability to interact with web pages, reflecting the competitive landscape in AI agent functionalities [13] AMD vs. NVIDIA - The InferenceMAX framework reveals that the competition between AMD and NVIDIA is nuanced, with performance depending on model types and interaction levels [14][15] - NVIDIA maintains an edge in low to mid-interactivity scenarios, while AMD shows competitive potential in specific high-interactivity tasks [16][17] Intel's 18A Node - Intel's 18A node represents a critical step in its strategy to regain advanced manufacturing credibility, with the first products expected to ship by late 2025 [22][23] Taiwanese Storage Industry - Phison's revenue reached NT$6.515 billion in September 2025, driven by a nearly 300% increase in PCIe SSD controller shipments, indicating strong AI-related demand [24] - Winbond reported a revenue high of NT$21.77 billion in Q3 2025, benefiting from rising DRAM contract prices and a recovering demand cycle [27] Smartphone and PC Market - In August 2025, China's smartphone sales reached approximately 20.8 million units, reflecting a decline, with Apple and OPPO leading in market share [28] - The domestic PC market remained stable, with desktop sales declining slightly and laptop sales showing a modest increase [34]

Investment Rating - The SW Machinery Equipment Index has shown a year-to-date increase of 36.94%, ranking 5th among 31 primary industry classifications, while the CSI 300 Index has increased by 17.33% [3][18]. Core Insights - The BEST project in nuclear fusion is progressing with significant bidding opportunities, including a recent tender exceeding 190 million yuan for key components [7]. - The Figure03 robot, launched by FigureAI, represents a significant advancement in general-purpose robotics, with production capabilities expected to reach 100,000 units over the next four years [7]. - The global demand for construction machinery is anticipated to rise, supported by domestic equipment renewal cycles and international market recovery, particularly in Southeast Asia and the Middle East [7]. - The engineering machinery sector is entering a new upward cycle, with excavator sales showing a year-on-year increase of 12.8% in August 2025 [36]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The SW Machinery Equipment Index decreased by 0.26% over the last week, ranking 19th among 31 primary industry classifications [3][16]. Key Data Tracking General Machinery - The general machinery sector remains under pressure, with the manufacturing PMI at 49.8% for September, indicating a contraction [25]. Engineering Machinery - The engineering machinery sector is experiencing accelerated growth, with excavator sales reaching 16,523 units in August, a 12.8% increase year-on-year [36]. Railway Equipment - The railway equipment sector is showing steady growth, with fixed asset investment maintaining a growth rate of around 6% [44]. Shipbuilding - The shipbuilding sector is experiencing a slowdown, with the global new ship price index showing signs of stabilization [47]. Oilfield Equipment - The oilfield equipment sector is stabilizing at the bottom, with an increase in global drilling rig numbers and expected growth in oil and gas extraction demand [49]. Industrial Gases - The industrial gases sector is expected to benefit from improved steel profitability due to declining raw material prices, leading to increased demand [53]. Gas Turbines - The gas turbine sector is showing robust growth, with GEV reporting a 35.6% year-on-year increase in new gas turbine orders in the first half of 2025 [55].

Group 1 - Global risk assets experienced a broad decline, with significant drops in both US and Chinese indices, particularly in technology stocks [2][5][6] - The decline in asset prices is attributed to overseas risk events, including the potential impact of the US government shutdown and renewed trade tensions between the US and China [2][5][6] - The VIX index, a measure of market volatility, has increased but remains below extreme levels, indicating that the market is not in a state of panic [6][10][12] Group 2 - Since April, asset prices have gradually recovered from a period of excessive pessimism, aided by positive developments such as fiscal expansion in the US and capital expenditures from tech giants [3][7][12] - The report highlights two potential paths for the US economy: one indicating a late-stage stagflation in the service sector and another showing early recovery in manufacturing [12][17] - The upcoming earnings season for US technology companies is crucial to observe whether expectations will align with reality [12][17] Group 3 - The report suggests that while there is no current panic in the market, the higher valuation levels compared to April indicate a lack of "greed" [17] - For Chinese assets, the previous gains were largely driven by alignment with overseas technology trends, which may pose vulnerabilities in the short term [17] - The report recommends focusing on domestic policies and sectors that may benefit from a recovery in domestic demand, such as food and beverage, aviation, and real estate [17]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a strong confidence in the pharmaceutical sector's potential for a reversal in 2025, particularly focusing on innovative drugs and the recovery of left-side sectors as the biggest investment opportunities for the year [5][14]. Core Insights - The innovative drug sector is expected to continue its upward trend, with BD (business development) activities anticipated to catalyze market movements. The upcoming ESMO conference (October 17-21) is highlighted as a key event for clinical data disclosures from domestic innovative drug companies [2][13]. - The report emphasizes the importance of recent Nobel Prize discoveries related to peripheral immune tolerance, which are relevant to the development of new therapies in oncology and autoimmune diseases. This underscores the significance of innovation in these fields [40][50]. - The report notes that the CXO industry in China is entering a recovery phase, with improvements expected in industry orders, capacity utilization, and performance metrics due to enhanced domestic investment and financing data [2][5]. Summary by Sections Innovative Drugs - The innovative drug sector has seen a recent pullback, but the long-term upward trend remains intact. The report suggests that the market is awaiting further BD catalysts and highlights the importance of upcoming clinical data from the ESMO conference [2][13]. - The report indicates that the overall sentiment in the innovative drug sector is still positive, with a focus on potential breakthroughs in cancer and autoimmune therapies following the recent Nobel Prize discoveries [40][50]. Biologics - Novo Nordisk announced an agreement to acquire Akero for $4.7 billion, with Akero's FGF21 analog EFX showing promise as a leading therapy for metabolic dysfunction-related fatty liver disease (MASH) [3][51]. - The report suggests that EFX is the only drug in Phase 2 trials demonstrating significant fibrosis regression in F4 patients, highlighting the need for continued attention to developments in this area [51][57]. Medical Devices - The commercialization of innovative products is accelerating, with domestic replacements making significant progress. For instance, MicroPort's Tumi laparoscopic surgical robot has surpassed 100 global orders and is leading the domestic market share [4][58]. - The report notes that the Tumi robot has received market access in over 60 countries and regions, with a strong presence in high-end markets such as Europe [60][62]. Traditional Chinese Medicine - There has been a continuous increase in new drug IND and NDA applications for traditional Chinese medicine, with 92 new IND applications and 42 NDA applications reported in the first nine months of 2025 [3][64]. - The report highlights ongoing policy support for traditional Chinese medicine, which is expected to drive further innovation and development in this sector [64][65].

Group 1: Quantitative Credit Strategy - The duration strategy has continued to perform poorly as of September 30, with the cumulative excess return of the AA+ city investment bonds in a barbell strategy dropping to around -34 basis points [2][12] - The duration strategy for perpetual bonds has shown significant volatility, with cumulative excess returns remaining low at -18 basis points and -30 basis points despite a larger recovery after declines in September [2][12] - In contrast, short-end city investment bonds and bullet-type commercial bank bonds have shown relatively better excess returns [2][12] Group 2: Duration Tracking of Various Bonds - As of September 30, the weighted average transaction durations for city investment bonds and industrial bonds are 1.76 years and 2.22 years, respectively, indicating a defensive characteristic and falling within the 65%-80% historical percentile range since 2021 [3][16] - The weighted average transaction durations for secondary capital bonds, perpetual bonds, and general commercial bank bonds are 3.67 years, 3.70 years, and 1.92 years, respectively, showing a notable decline in their percentile levels [3][16] - Other financial bonds, such as securities company bonds and insurance company bonds, have also shown low historical duration percentiles, with durations of 1.51 years, 1.73 years, 4.11 years, and 1.23 years [3][16] Group 3: Yield Heatmap of Coupon Assets - As of September 29, 2025, yields for non-financial and non-real estate industrial bonds have generally increased, with significant rises exceeding 9.5 basis points for certain private non-perpetual bonds and state-owned enterprise perpetual bonds [4][20] - The yields for financial bonds have also risen, particularly for mid-to-long-term secondary capital bonds and state-owned bank perpetual bonds, which have increased by over 12 basis points [4][20] - Some short-end products have stabilized, with yields for certain city and rural commercial bank bonds showing minimal changes [4][20] Group 4: Long-term Credit Bond Analysis - The spread between active long-term credit bonds and comparable government bonds has reached a 24-year high, with the spread for 10-year bonds widening to a new annual high [5][22] - Despite the apparent advantages of long-term credit bonds post-adjustment, the lack of incremental funding support suggests that duration strategies should remain cautious until market sentiment improves [5][22] Group 5: Local Government Bond Supply and Trading - The latest week has seen a weak sentiment in the bond market, with the average issuance rates for local government bonds continuing to rise, reaching new highs for bonds with maturities of 20 years and above [6][27] - The issuance rates for local government bonds with maturities of 10 years and above have widened to over 20 basis points compared to similar maturity government bonds, indicating a higher percentile reading for the year [6][27]

透视固收+系列专题（一） 初识"固收+"，从内涵发展到投资选择 2025/10/10 2 初识固收+：以"稳"为基、以"+"拓益 固收+发展盘点：在多维演进中行稳致远 固收+投资选择：兼具广度与深度的基金优选体系 3 01 初识固收+： 以"稳"为基、以"+"拓益 4 资料来源：国金证券研究所 5 | | | 6 数据来源：Wind，国金证券研究所；注：业绩统计截至2025/6/30 02 固收+发展盘点： 在多维演进中行稳致远 7 8 数据来源：Wind，国金证券研究所；注：规模统计截至2025/6/30 数据来源：Wind，国金证券研究所；注：规模统计截至2025/6/30 9 10 数据来源：Wind，国金证券研究所；注：规模及持有份额统计截至2025/6/30 | 11 | | --- | 数据来源：Wind，国金证券研究所；注：规模统计截至2025/6/30 | 图表：不同时间维度上固收+规模增量靠前的TOP10基金公司 | | --- | | 排序 | 2025年以来 | | 近3年 | | 沂5年 | | 沂10年 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

第一，9 月 22 日国新办新闻发布会、9 月 26 日央行第三季度货币政策例会以及国庆假期人民日报发表"钟才文"七 连评都是近期观察政策的窗口。从重要会议和官媒的表述看，政策加码的诉求并不突出。 第二，从完成经济增长目标的角度看，四季度实现全年 GDP 增速 5%目标压力较小，出台增量政策的必要性偏低。 第三，从四季度的经济承受力来看，尽管消费和出口存在高基数压力，但内生动力仍有韧性，出台增量政策的必要性 偏低。 第四，鉴于增量政策的必要性不高，未来一段时间重点或将是存量政策的优化，通过调整存量政策的形式、节奏和用 途，支撑经济增长。 第五，从近期政策的表态、实现经济增长目标的必要性、四季度经济的现实压力看，当前政策重心是深化改革。 在经济压力不大、外部环境相对稳定的情况下，无论是反内卷还是要素市场化，都是对深化改革的有力确认。这也是 未来"十五五"规划的重要政策方向，通过改革提高全要素增长率，打开经济潜在增长空间。 风险提示 对政策的理解存在偏差，增量政策超预期。 宏观经济报告 新型政策性金融工具已于 9 月底如期落地，符合市场预期。如果年内能够出台超预期的增量政策，将成为引发市场风 格切换的重要导火索。 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The spread of ultra-long bonds has reached a new high. The yield center of ultra-long credit bonds has continued to rise, the primary issuance has stopped, and the secondary market has shown weak performance. Due to the lack of incremental capital support, the duration strategy still needs to be cautious before the market sentiment significantly recovers [2][3][4] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. Stock Market Characteristics - The yield center of ultra-long credit bonds has continued to rise. During the week of September 29 - September 30, 2025, the bond market sentiment remained weak, and the interest rate center of stock ultra-long credit bonds further increased. Compared with the previous week, the number of stock ultra-long credit bonds with a yield of 2.6% - 2.7% increased to 248 [2][11][12] 2. Primary Issuance Situation - There was no issuance of ultra-long credit bonds in the week before the National Day [3][20] 3. Secondary Trading Performance - The decline of the ultra-long credit bond index was greater than that of other mainstream bond varieties. This week, the index prices of medium - short - term credit bonds and bank sub - debt showed signs of stabilization, but the ultra-long credit bond index still led the decline. The index of AA + credit bonds with a maturity of over 10 years decreased by 0.24% month - on - month [4][21] - The liquidity of ultra-long credit bonds was under pressure. Within two trading days this week, the total number of transactions of general credit bonds with a maturity of over 7 years was 62, and the trend of weakening liquidity continued. In terms of long - bond pricing, the yield and spread of ultra-long credit bonds both increased in the latest week. The increase in the transaction yield of general credit bonds with a maturity of over 10 years was at the forefront, and the spread with 20 - 30 - year treasury bonds widened to over 50bp [4][24] - The trading sentiment of ultra-long credit bonds was weak. The TKN ratio of varieties with a maturity of over 10 years was at a low level, and the deviation of high - valuation transactions was much higher than that of long - term bonds with a maturity of less than 10 years [4][28] - In terms of the investor structure, funds continued to sell ultra-long credit bonds. Concerns about controlling duration risk and the liquidity flaws of the varieties still affected the allocation behavior of trading desks. The purchasing power of institutions such as insurance and wealth management was limited, and the allocation desks had not formed effective support. It was difficult to reverse the adjustment trend of ultra-long credit bonds in the short term [4][32] - From a more microscopic perspective, the spread between active ultra-long credit bonds of each maturity and treasury bonds of similar maturities rose to a 24 - year high this week, and the spread of varieties around 10 years widened to a new high this year. Looking forward, although the coupon advantage of ultra-long credit bonds is apparent after the adjustment, due to the lack of incremental capital support, the duration strategy still needs to be cautious before the market sentiment significantly recovers [4][34]