Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [3][9]. Core Insights - The company reported a significant revenue increase of 54.94% year-on-year, reaching 1.38 billion RMB in 2024, although it faced a net loss of 0.12 billion RMB, a decline of 108.21% compared to the previous year due to high R&D and share-based payment expenses [1][6]. - The semiconductor equipment market in mainland China is projected to grow by 33.7% in 2024, reaching 49 billion USD, positioning it as the largest semiconductor equipment market globally. The company is well-positioned to benefit from this growth due to strong domestic demand for equipment [1][2]. - The company has significantly increased its R&D investment, with expenses reaching 498 million RMB in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 118.17%, indicating a commitment to advancing its technology [2][6]. - The company has developed a comprehensive range of detection equipment, with over 300 units of non-graphical wafer defect detection equipment delivered to more than 100 clients, ensuring a competitive edge in the market [2][6]. - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are optimistic, with expected revenues of 2.04 billion RMB, 2.95 billion RMB, and 3.83 billion RMB, representing growth rates of 48%, 45%, and 30% respectively [3][6]. Summary by Sections Performance Review - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 1.38 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 54.94%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was -0.12 billion RMB, reflecting a decline of 108.21% due to high R&D and share-based payment costs [1][6]. Operational Analysis - The company is expected to see continued growth in orders, supported by a strong domestic demand for semiconductor equipment, with a significant portion of the market currently dominated by U.S. companies [1][2]. - The company has a robust order backlog, with contract liabilities of 630 million RMB and inventory of 750 million RMB, indicating strong sales momentum [1][2]. R&D and Product Development - The company has made substantial investments in R&D, with expenses reaching 498 million RMB in 2024, which is significantly higher than the revenue growth rate, reflecting a strategic focus on advanced technology [2][6]. - The company has successfully developed and delivered advanced detection equipment, enhancing its market position and ensuring competitiveness in the semiconductor industry [2][6]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are set at 2.04 billion RMB, 2.95 billion RMB, and 3.83 billion RMB, with corresponding growth rates of 48%, 45%, and 30% [3][6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [3][9]. Core Insights - The company reported a significant revenue increase of 54.94% year-on-year, reaching 1.38 billion RMB in 2024, although it faced a net loss of 0.12 billion RMB, a decline of 108.21% compared to the previous year due to high R&D and share-based payment expenses [1]. - The semiconductor equipment market in mainland China is projected to grow by 33.7% in 2024, reaching 49 billion USD, positioning it as the largest semiconductor equipment market globally. The company is well-positioned to benefit from this growth due to strong domestic demand for equipment [1][2]. - The company has significantly increased its R&D investment, reaching 0.498 billion RMB in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 118.17%, which is higher than its revenue growth rate. This investment is aimed at advancing its technology and product offerings [2]. - The company has developed a comprehensive range of detection equipment, with over 300 units of non-graphical wafer defect detection equipment delivered to more than 100 clients, ensuring a competitive edge in the market [2]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 2.037 billion RMB, 2.949 billion RMB, and 3.833 billion RMB, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 48%, 45%, and 30% [3][6]. - The forecasted net profit for 2025, 2026, and 2027 is 0.204 billion RMB, 0.346 billion RMB, and 0.594 billion RMB, with growth rates of 70% and 72% for the following years [3][6].

事件简介 4 月 4 日，因杜邦中国集团有限公司涉嫌违反《中华人民共和国反垄断法》，市场监管总局依法对杜邦中国集团有限公 司开展立案调查。 事件分析 杜邦的反垄断调查将成为行业的标志性事件，高端材料领域国产企业加速。近期的连续事件具有非常明显的行业标志 性，4 月 2 日美国宣布对所有贸易伙伴设立最低 10%的最低基准关税，对中国加征 34%的关税；4 月 4 日，国务院关税 税则委员会办公室宣布自 2025 年4 月 10 日对原产于美国的所有进口商品，在现行适用关税税率基础上加征 34%关税， 同时将 16 家美国实体列入出口管制管控名单，将 11 家美国企业列入不可靠实体清单等。在关税和反制关税发布的背 景下，杜邦的反垄断调查就更具有典型意义。我国是全球最大的化工产品市场，具有庞大的需求空间，伴随中国改革 开发，大批外资开始持续深耕中国市场，而近 20 年来，国内化工企业迅速崛起，已经能够形成大宗产品的充分自给， 并能够有效供给精细化工领域的中低端产品，较多海外企业难以维持有效的产品竞争力，转而在高端领域设立更多的 竞争壁垒，以维持竞争空间和利润空间。此次反垄断调查不仅仅标志，中国在化工高端材料的反制， ...

近期政策层面密集释放积极供给侧改革的信号。值得注意的是，近期政策表态对于供给侧问题的表述是"重点产业结 构矛盾"，而非"产能过剩"。事实上，我国多数行业面临的结构性问题是低端产能过剩、高端产能不足。尤其是对于 需求仍处于上行周期的新兴产业来说，是否存在整体的"产能过剩"，还是个问号。因此，本轮供给侧改革的内涵可能 较上一轮更加丰富，预计将围绕化解部分行业低端产能过剩和扩大中高端产能供给两个维度展开。 2024Q4，工业产能利用率处于 65.9%的历史分位水平，意味着工业部门整体的产能利用水平尚可，产能过剩问题主要 集中在特定行业。综合产能利用率、价格和利润率等指标，目前可能存在产能过剩的行业包括：非金属矿物、黑色金 属、光伏、锂电池、汽车制造、石油煤炭、专用设备、食品制造、医药、化工等。 基于产能过剩的产生原因、持续时间、影响范围与严重程度，可将产能过剩划分为三种类型：摩擦性产能过剩、周期 性产能过剩、结构性产能过剩。其中，结构性产能过剩通常表现为低端产能过剩与高端产能不足并存，其持续时间长， 难以通过市场竞争出清，是造成恶性竞争和价格扭曲现象的重要原因。化解结构性产能过剩的关键在于政府通过供给 侧改革，引导 ...

子行业周度核心观点： 光伏&储能：美国对等关税落地进一步释放光储板块贸易政策风险，美国市场壁垒利润长存，国际化布局优势企业迎 抄底良机；光伏玻璃 4 月新单温和涨价 0.5 元/平米，这一涨幅，是驱动头部企业盈利逐渐进入舒适区间、而二三线 企业投产/复产冲动仍被压制的最理想状态。 风电：一季度国内风电核准规模达 30.3GW，同比大幅增长 121%，"驭风行动"、"以大代小"、第三批"沙戈荒"大基 地项目在多个省份得到核准，重申我们对 2026 年陆风需求不会大幅下滑的判断；山东青岛 3GW 深远海项目正式立项、 青州七海风场正式全面施工、阳江三山岛柔直海缆开标，重点项目节点推进加速，持续推荐海风板块。 电网：1）《中国能源报》披露 25 年预计将投产"两交五直"特高压线路，未来几年可能开工"十六交十二直"，"十五 五"期间特高压有望保持高强度投资；2）国网 25 年输变电项目第二次变电设备招标公示，招标物资共 18 个分标， 521 个标包，输变电项目招标稳步推进；3）金盘科技、神马电力披露 2024 年度业绩报告，海外营收/订单高速增长。 新能源车：1）车企发布 3 月销量，零跑、理想表现均强势，比亚迪出 ...

当前成熟微型滚柱丝杠供应商较小，竞争格局较好。公开资料显示，目前上市公司中已经披露布局了手部微型丝杠业 务的包含浙江荣泰和五洲新春。其中浙江荣泰预备收购狄兹精密传动公司（KGG），该公司技术来源于全球微型丝杠龙 头日本 KSS，同时具备大关节丝杠、微型滚珠丝杠（直径 1.8mm 起）和微型滚柱丝杠（直径 4mm 起）的能力，具备多 年微型丝杠能力积累，具备较强先发优势。五洲新春 1H24 财务报告披露公司已经开始布局手部微型丝杠。 底层技术相通，后期具备大关节丝杠能力料将持续布局微型丝杠。微型丝杠当前主流技术方案为车铣磨工艺，当批量 量产时为实现规模降本，有望通过轧制（冷锻）、以车代磨、粉末冶金等方案进行批量降本。其中车铣磨擅长精度但速 度较慢，进口高精度内外螺纹磨床采购设备成本达上千万元/台，因此亟待提升性价比。根据《行星滚柱丝杠滚柱冷 滚压成形机理与实验研究》，轧制丝杠优点在于加工效率是车铣磨效率的近 10 倍，且螺纹的表面光洁度较高，噪声较 小。以车代磨和粉末冶金在精度要求较低的情况下性价比极高。 最终工艺选择主要取决于性价比和机器人所需微型丝杠精度。当前机器人灵巧手尚在优化过程中，若算法能力持续迭 代 ...

我国总体处于净出口状态，海外价格大涨确定性大。对于轻稀土镨钕，进口矿占总供给 22%左右；前文已测算直接出 口占比 18%，但考虑以产成品形态（空调、两轮电动车、新能车等情况）出口情况，我们认为直接+间接出口量或超过 进口量，因此镨钕角度出发，我国处于净出口状态。对于重稀土镝、铽，因缅甸矿扰动持续，导致重稀土亦转向净出 口状态。因而综合评判下来，出口管制将带来海外稀土价格显著上升。 国内价格：原料紧缺有支撑。稀土目前由于国内供改+缅甸局势动荡导致供应停滞，海外原料供应紧缺已经出现，对 内盘价格支撑强（去年 9 月锑出口管制，但由于长协存在进口量于 25 年 2 月才出现显著下滑，锑价于 2 月末恢复上 涨）。国内原矿配额增长预期较为温和，因而国内价格支撑较强。 价格推演：或出现内外同涨。由于出口管制，海外钕铁硼供应收紧，外盘钕铁硼连带稀土价格直接上涨；我国出口或 面临压力，但原料紧缺率先出现，内盘价格有支撑。类比锑，后续出口逐步放行，或出口形态发生转变（直接以产成 品出口），内盘价格亦有望上涨；海外稀土供应链极其脆弱，因而恐慌性备货下"内外同涨"局面有望出现。 缅甸扰动持续。2025 年 1-2 月我国缅甸矿 ...

事件 4 月 4 日，杜邦中国涉嫌违反《中华人民共和国反垄断法》，国家市场监管总局依法对该公司开展立案调查。本文重点梳理 国产替代空间较大的新材料品种。 1、高纯石英砂 高纯度石英材料是半导体芯片制程中的关键耗材，在芯片制造过程的扩散、刻蚀等环节发挥重要作用。据测算，每生产 1 亿美元的电子信息产品，平均就需要消耗价值 50 万美元的高纯石英材料，在 AI、HPC 等趋势下，高纯石英材料的需求趋 势较为乐观。但另一方面，美国矽比科（前身尤尼明）、挪威 TQC 拥有极高市占率，国内龙头石英股份仍处于起步阶段，公 司将持续推动对半导体石英材料终端晶圆制造商及半导体设备商的产品认证和市场推广，培育新增长点。石英股份 2025 年 2 月投资者问答表述"相关客户对我们半导体级高纯石英砂认证已完成，并有一定量的订单"。 2、芳纶及芳纶纸 芳纶是世界三大高性能纤维之一，广泛应用于军事国防、安全防护、航空航天、环保、电子电气材料等领域。1960 年代最 早由美国杜邦公司实现工业化，当前商业化生产主要是间位芳纶（1313）、对位芳纶（1414）。截止 2024 上半年，芳纶全球 产能约 15-17 万吨，需求 12-13 万 ...

行情回顾： ◼ 本周（3.31-4.4）上证综指下跌 0.28%，创业板指下跌 2.95%。公用事业板块上涨 2.96%，煤炭板块上涨 1.35%, 碳中和板块上涨 0.53%，环保板块上涨 0.11%。 每周专题： 行业要闻： 投资建议： ◼ 火电板块：我们建议关注发电资产主要布局在电力供需偏紧、发电侧竞争格局较好地区的火电企业，如皖能电力、 华电国际。水电板块：建议关注水电运营商龙头长江电力。核电板块：建议关注核电龙头企业中国核电。新能源 板块：建议关注新能源运营商龙头龙源电力（H）。 风险提示： 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 ◼ 工业燃料领域用气量在 2023 年天然气消费总量中占比近 42%，在天然气下游消费中占据重要地位。天然气在工 业领域主要用于工业窑炉和工业锅炉，广泛应用于陶瓷、玻璃、钢铁等行业。在该领域，天然气的主要替代能源 为煤炭。9M13，国务院印发《大气污染防治行动计划》，拉开工业领域"煤改气"的序幕。但天然气保障供应能 力的瓶颈和煤气经济性对比致使工业领域"煤改气"的进程反复，但也变相使得工业燃料用能方面具备一定煤气 转换的灵活性。 ◼ 综合《工业窑炉燃料发生炉煤气与天然气的对比分析》 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, with a target price of 3.21 RMB based on a PE of 51x for 2025, which is significantly lower than the average of comparable companies [3]. Core Viewpoints - The company, Baogang Co., is a well-established state-owned enterprise that has diversified into "steel + rare earth resources," controlling significant resources in Baiyun Obo [1][10]. - The rare earth industry is expected to see improved supply and demand dynamics due to regulatory changes and geopolitical factors, which will likely increase prices [1][27]. - The steel business is anticipated to reduce losses and lessen the drag on the rare earth segment, benefiting from industry-wide improvements in profitability [2][52]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Baogang Co. was established in 1954 and is a leading steel producer in Inner Mongolia, with a production capacity of 17.5 million tons [10][12]. - The company has a stable ownership structure, with the largest shareholder being Baotou Iron and Steel Group, controlled by the Inner Mongolia government [15]. Rare Earth Industry - The implementation of the "Rare Earth Management Regulations" is expected to enhance domestic control over rare earth resources and improve market conditions [27][30]. - Ongoing supply disruptions from Myanmar are likely to elevate prices for rare earth elements, with projections indicating an average price for praseodymium and neodymium oxide to exceed 450,000 RMB per ton by 2025 [1][37]. Rare Earth Business - Baogang Co. possesses substantial rare earth resources, with reserves ranking second globally at approximately 13.82 million tons [17][44]. - The pricing mechanism for rare earth products is linked to market prices, allowing the company to benefit from price increases [46][50]. Steel Business - The company has a diversified steel production capacity, with a self-supply ratio of iron ore close to 40%, and is expected to improve profitability as the steel industry recovers [2][52]. - The steel segment has historically impacted the rare earth business negatively, but improvements in the steel market are projected to enhance overall profitability [2][52]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 are 65.5 billion, 61.7 billion, and 63.5 billion RMB, with net profits expected to rise significantly by 2026 [3][6].