Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the pharmacy and traditional Chinese medicine sectors, anticipating a recovery in 2026 after a weak performance in 2025 [2][5]. Core Insights - The pharmacy sector is expected to benefit from market consolidation, with leading companies likely to increase their market share through mergers and acquisitions during the industry clearing phase [3][11]. - The traditional Chinese medicine sector is projected to stabilize and potentially recover, driven by an increase in flu incidence and the upcoming update of the essential drug list [57][60]. Summary by Sections Pharmacy Sector - **Market Review**: The pharmacy sector faced significant challenges in 2025, with a decline in same-store sales and an overall reduction in the number of operating stores since Q4 2024 [5][20]. - **Policy Environment**: Regulatory measures are promoting a more compliant and healthier industry ecosystem, which is expected to benefit leading companies [14][15]. - **Market Size**: In the first ten months of 2025, the sales scale of physical pharmacies was 501.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.6%, primarily due to a decline in non-pharmaceutical sales [16][21]. - **Competitive Landscape**: The number of pharmacies in China reached approximately 684,000 by the end of 2024, with a notable increase in store closures, particularly among smaller chains [20][24]. - **Marginal Performance**: There has been a slight recovery in retail sales data, with leading companies showing improved performance through cost reduction and efficiency measures [32][34]. - **Outlook for 2026**: Focus on market consolidation and the development of non-pharmaceutical products is recommended, as leading companies are expected to enhance their market share [44][52]. Traditional Chinese Medicine Sector - **Market Review**: The traditional Chinese medicine sector experienced overall weak performance in 2025, with some companies seeing temporary valuation increases due to innovative pipelines [57][58]. - **In-Hospital Opportunities**: The upcoming update of the essential drug list is expected to benefit companies with products that have the potential to be included [60]. - **Out-of-Hospital Opportunities**: An increase in flu incidence in Q4 2025 is anticipated to aid in inventory digestion, with some companies expected to see improved performance [60]. - **High Dividend Stocks**: Companies such as Lingrui Pharmaceutical, Jichuan Pharmaceutical, and Dong'e Ejiao are highlighted as stable high-dividend investment opportunities [60].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the high-end equipment manufacturing industry in China, emphasizing a "dual-driven" growth model characterized by strong domestic demand and robust international expansion [3][5]. Core Insights - The high-end equipment industry in China is experiencing a structural transformation, with a focus on technological advancements and brand development, leading to increased global market share [3]. - The report highlights two main investment themes: the technological self-reliance driven by AI and the deepening international expansion of Chinese equipment manufacturers [4][5]. - Key sectors to watch include gas turbines, industrial mother machines, controlled nuclear fusion, quantum computing, robotics, and 3D printing, which are expected to drive future growth [4][41]. Summary by Sections Domestic Manufacturing and Investment - Manufacturing investment in China is under short-term pressure, but high-end manufacturing and equipment sectors are emerging as growth engines, with a 1.9% year-on-year increase in manufacturing fixed asset investment [15][19]. - The report notes that high-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing sectors maintain high levels of activity despite overall investment slowdowns [15][22]. Export Performance - China's high-end equipment exports are performing well, driven by the global AI investment boom and recovery in demand from developed markets [28][31]. - In the first ten months of 2025, China's exports of electromechanical products reached 13.43 trillion yuan, marking an 8.7% year-on-year increase [28][31]. Technological Self-Reliance - The report emphasizes the importance of technological self-reliance, particularly in sectors like gas turbines and quantum computing, which are expected to see significant growth due to increasing global demand [4][48]. - The global gas turbine market is projected to grow significantly, with sales expected to rise from 44.1 GW in 2023 to an average of 60 GW from 2024 to 2026, reflecting a 36% increase [49][50]. International Expansion - Chinese equipment manufacturers are poised for further international growth, particularly in emerging markets, with sectors like engineering machinery and agricultural equipment expected to see substantial export growth [5][41]. - The report highlights the potential for Chinese companies in the oil and gas equipment sector, particularly in the Middle East, where demand is expected to rise significantly [5][13].

- The quantitative index enhancement market has seen rapid growth, expanding from 95.85 billion yuan in 2020 to over 250 billion yuan by 2025[2][14] - The market is characterized by a concentration of top products and an increase in average scale, with leading products continuously breaking new ground[2] - Regulatory policies starting in 2024 have compressed the alpha space for high-frequency T0 strategies, pushing managers to shift from high-frequency trading to mid-to-low-frequency fundamental factor exploration[2] - The average turnover rate of products has generally decreased since 2025, and the quality of index constituent stocks has improved, transforming quantitative index enhancement from a short-term trading tool to a product with long-term asset allocation value[2] - Yongying Fund Management Co., Ltd. is a joint venture fund company established by Ningbo Bank and OCBC Bank, with a management scale exceeding 620 billion yuan as of Q3 2025[3] - Yongying's quantitative index enhancement product system is divided into three categories: regular broad-based index enhancement, special benchmark index enhancement, and quantitative theme index enhancement[3] - The system relies on three core capabilities: full-process application of machine learning, multi-strategy integration, and strict risk control, ensuring stable excess returns and risk control in different market environments[3] - Yongying SSE STAR 100 Index Enhancement A (021278) is an enhanced index product with a stock position maintained above 90% since its inception, showing higher volatility and drawdown compared to similar products but better return performance[4] - Yongying CSI A50 Index Enhancement A (022204) is another enhanced index product with lower volatility and drawdown levels compared to similar products, and better return performance, reflecting good risk-adjusted returns[5]

Investment Rating - The report suggests that the domestic HNB (Heated Not Burned) industry is on the verge of significant growth, driven by international tobacco giants shifting towards new tobacco products [5]. Core Insights - The global cigarette market is experiencing an irreversible decline, with smoking rates dropping from 30.75% in 2005 to 21.74% in 2022, and cigarette market size decreasing from 53,908 billion sticks in 2018 to an estimated 51,561 billion sticks in 2024, reflecting a CAGR of -0.74% [1][13]. - Major tobacco companies, including Philip Morris International (PMI), are focusing on new tobacco products as a core growth driver, with PMI planning for over two-thirds of its revenue to come from new tobacco products by 2030 [1][20]. - The Japanese market serves as a reference point, showing that the rapid penetration of heated tobacco products has not negatively impacted tax revenues, with the market size growing from 37.28 billion sticks in 2019 to 64.50 billion sticks in 2024, a CAGR of 11.59% [2][51]. Summary by Sections Section 1: HNB as a Core Development Category - International tobacco giants are increasingly focusing on new tobacco products as a long-term performance core, with significant contributions to profitability [1.1]. - The global market for heated tobacco and electronic cigarettes is projected to grow, with sales expected to reach $38.85 billion and $23.04 billion respectively by 2024, reflecting growth rates of 12.7% and 9.5% [1.1][13]. Section 2: Domestic Tobacco Industry Challenges - The traditional cigarette market in China is under pressure, with production increasing from 23,642 billion sticks in 2019 to 24,655 billion sticks in 2024, but at a slowing growth rate [3][55]. - The inventory levels in the tobacco industry have risen significantly, from 150 billion yuan in 2010 to approximately 4,394 billion yuan in 2024, indicating a high stock level [3][56]. Section 3: Regulatory Framework for HNB - The regulatory landscape for heated tobacco products is becoming clearer globally, with established frameworks in the US, Japan, and Europe, providing a roadmap for compliance [4][62]. - The US has implemented a structured regulatory process for HNB products, which includes pre-market tobacco application (PMTA) requirements, ensuring a predictable compliance environment [4][66]. Section 4: Domestic Product Development and Market Readiness - Chinese tobacco companies have made significant strides in developing HNB products, with several companies launching domestic HNB devices and achieving a substantial number of patents in the field [4][5]. - The report emphasizes the importance of product innovation and international expansion for the high-quality development of the domestic tobacco industry [3][5]. Section 5: Company Analysis - Companies like Huabao International and Smoore International are highlighted for their strong technical reserves and potential for growth in the HNB sector, with Huabao expected to benefit from its leading position in the flavoring segment [5][5.1][5.2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - According to Wind data, among the bonds traded at a discount, "24 Chengtong Holdings MTN010B" had a relatively large deviation in valuation price; among the bonds with rising net prices, "Jingzi K10" led in terms of valuation price deviation; among the Tier 2 and perpetual bonds with rising net prices, "25 Ping An Bank Perpetual Bond 01BC" showed a relatively large deviation in valuation price; among the commercial financial bonds with rising net prices, "25 Zhangjiagang Rural Commercial Science and Technology Innovation Bond 01" ranked high in terms of valuation price deviation; among the bonds with a trading yield higher than 5%, transportation bonds were at the forefront [2]. - The changes in credit bond valuation yields are mainly distributed in the [-5,5] range. The trading terms of non - financial credit bonds are mainly between 2 and 3 years, with the highest proportion of discount - traded varieties within 0.5 years; the trading terms of Tier 2 and perpetual bonds are mainly between 4 and 5 years, with the highest proportion of discount - traded varieties between 1 and 3 years. By industry, the bonds in the light manufacturing industry had the largest average deviation in valuation price [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Discounted Bond Trading Tracking - The report tracked the trading of significantly discounted bonds, listing the remaining term, valuation price deviation, valuation net price, valuation yield deviation, valuation yield, previous - day valuation yield, implied rating, subject rating, industry, and trading volume of various bonds such as "24 Chengtong Holdings MTN010B" [4]. 3.2 Tracking of Bonds with Rising Net Prices - It tracked the trading of bonds with significant positive deviations in net prices. Bonds like "Jingzi K10" had a valuation price deviation of 0.21%, and the report also provided details on other bonds including remaining term, valuation price deviation, etc. [5]. - For Tier 2 and perpetual bonds with rising net prices, "25 Ping An Bank Perpetual Bond 01BC" and others were listed, with a valuation price deviation of about 0.03% for many of them [6]. 3.3 Commercial Financial Bond Trading Tracking - The trading of commercial financial bonds was tracked, such as "25 Zhangjiagang Rural Commercial Science and Technology Innovation Bond 01", with information on remaining term, valuation price deviation, etc. provided [9]. 3.4 Tracking of Bonds with a Trading Yield Higher than 5% - Bonds like "24 Ruimao 02" with a trading yield higher than 5% were tracked, and the report presented details such as remaining term, valuation price deviation, and trading volume [10]. 3.5 Distribution of Credit Bond Trading Valuation Deviations on the Day - The distribution of changes in credit bond valuation yields on the day was mainly in the [-10,-5), [-5,0), (0,5], (5,10] intervals, along with the number of bonds and trading volume [13]. 3.6 Distribution of Trading Terms of Non - Financial Credit Bonds on the Day - The trading terms of non - financial credit bonds (including urban investment and industrial bonds) on the day were mainly between 2 and 3 years, with corresponding trading volumes [15]. 3.7 Distribution of Trading Terms of Tier 2 and Perpetual Bonds on the Day - The trading terms of Tier 2 and perpetual bonds on the day were mainly between 4 and 5 years, with relevant trading volume data [18]. 3.8 Discounted Trading Ratio and Trading Volume of Non - Financial Credit Bonds by Industry - The average valuation price deviation and trading volume of non - financial credit bonds in various industries were presented, with the light manufacturing industry having the largest average valuation price deviation [20].

经济增长：集运运价指数连续两周上涨 生产：电厂日耗弱于往年同期 通货膨胀：农产品超季节性涨价 CPI：农产品价格指数大幅高于近年同期 风险提示 统计口径误差。数据统计大多为抽样，恐与现实情况有些许出入。 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 (1) 电厂日耗弱于往年同期。12 月 23 日，6 大发电集团的平均日耗为 80.0 万吨，较 12 月 16 日的 79.9 万吨上升 0.1%。 12 月 19 日，南方八省电厂日耗为 201.2 万吨，较 12 月 12 日的 201.8 万吨下降 0.3%。 (2) 高炉开工率以回落为主。12 月 19 日，全国高炉开工率 78.5%，较 12 月 12 日下降 0.2 个百分点；产能利用率 84.9%， 较 12 月 12 日下降 1.0 个百分点。12 月 19 日，唐山钢厂高炉开工率 92.7%，较 12 月 12 日上升 0.9 个百分点。 (3) 轮胎开工率窄幅波动。12 月 18 日，汽车全钢胎（用于卡车）开工率 64.1%，较 12 月 11 日上升 0.1 个百分点； 汽车半钢胎（用于轿车）开工率 71.4%，较 12 月 11 日下降 0.2 个百分点 ...

Economic Growth - The US GDP for Q3 recorded an annualized growth rate of 4.3%, exceeding the expected 3.3%[2] - Year-on-year growth increased to 2.3%, but remains below last year's 2.8%[2] - Key contributors to the 4.3% growth were personal consumption (2.4 percentage points) and net exports (1.6 percentage points)[2] Employment and Consumption - There is a divergence in economic performance, characterized as "growth in summer" and "employment in winter"[2] - Non-cyclical sectors showed strong growth, while cyclical sectors experienced increased weakness[10] - Private consumption remains strong overall, but there is a notable disparity within consumption categories, with disposable income growth slowing[19] Investment Trends - AI-related investments contributed 0.8 percentage points to GDP, while private consumption added 1.1 percentage points, indicating a dual-engine growth model[10] - Despite strong AI investment, traditional sectors like residential investment remain weak, questioning the effectiveness of interest rate cuts[15] Risks and Uncertainties - Increased policy uncertainty under Trump may lead to greater market volatility and faster capital flight from the dollar[32] - Global economic impacts from tariffs could lead to unexpected synchronized easing in 2026, alleviating long-term interest rate pressures[32] - The potential for significant manufacturing cost reductions due to technological breakthroughs could increase credit demand[32]

二级交易活跃度与定价 存量科创债评级呈现高度集中特征，AA+及以上隐含评级债券数量占比为 72.8%，AA 级中等资质个券占比也达到 23%， 反映部分中小科创主体融资需求；行业分布则以传统行业为主导，建筑装饰、公用事业、综合行业债券数量占比 37.6%， 纺织服饰、医药生物、通信行业较该行业全部信用债估值存在 12bp 以上的超额利差。 流动性方面，受央行公开市场操作稳定资金面预期、科创债 ETF 资金净流入与交易活跃驱动，本周科创债周度换手率 回升至 1.72%，成交笔数也增长至 989 笔，其中 3 年内品种成交笔数已上升至年内 90%以上的高位。 收益率视角上，本周交易所中短久期科创债价格修复，1-3 年品种成交收益均值下行 4bp 至 1.96%。短期内，流动性 宽松预期、政策红利持续释放、ETF 配置资金流入将是科创债收益率下行的直接推手。不过因品种一级供给节奏较快， 市场仍需时间消化，科创债收益率恐难以大幅下行，预计将维持震荡格局。 一级发行规模与结构 科创新债认购情绪企稳。本周（2025.12.15-2025.12.19，下同）科创债一级市场供给规模达 546.1 亿元，延续了前 一周的放量趋 ...

过去一周，市场风格出现显著切换。偏防守的价值因子以及代表交易博弈的量价类因子（波动率、技术）表现强势。 而此前表现优异的成长因子和一致预期因子则有所回撤。这反映出在震荡环境下，资金暂时脱离了业绩驱逻辑，转而 寻求低估值防御。展望未来一周，考虑到年末资金避险情绪，我们预期价值因子的防御属性仍将受捧，同时量价类因 子有望延续活跃态势，而成长风格短期或需等待拥挤度消化后的企稳。 以上结果通过历史数据统计、建模和测算完成，在政策、市场环境发生变化时模型存在失效的风险。 过去一周，国内主要市场指数平稳，其中上证 50、沪深 300、中证 500 和中证 1000 涨跌幅分别为 0.61%、-0.15%、 0.01%和-0.56%。 微盘股指标监控：综合来看，当前轮动模型由于微盘股滚动 20 天斜率收负，茅指数为正斜率，当前轮动模型发出切 换至茅指数信号，中期配置茅指数的预期能有更高相对收益。从中期微盘股择时角度来看，目前风控信号还没触发， 但能看到波动率拥挤率正在快速上行，风险有明显聚集。对于持有微盘板块投资者建议做好风险控制，以及密切跟踪 相对净值、动量及中期风险指标的动态。 过去一周，政策端进入了高频落地的执行期， ...

Report Summary 1. Market Performance - From 2025/12/12 - 2025/12/19, the CSI 300 rose 0.11%, and the 10 - year Treasury yield declined 2.25bp [1] 2. Overall Position Changes of Fixed - Income + Funds - This week, the estimated positions of fixed - income + funds showed a 0.33% reduction in the bond segment, a 0.72% increase in the stock segment, and a 0.18% increase in the convertible bond segment [1] 3. Position Change Concentration - For the bond segment, the largest number of funds (184, 36.44% of the total) had position changes concentrated in the [0%, 1%) range [4] - For the stock segment, 150 funds (29.70% of the total) had position changes in the [0%, 1%) range [4] - For the convertible bond segment, 260 funds (51.49% of the total) had position changes in the [0%, 1%) range [4] 4. Position Changes by Fund Size - **Bond Segment**: All funds of various sizes slightly reduced their bond positions this week [7] - **Stock Segment**: Funds with sizes of 10 - 20 billion, 2 - 10 billion, 20 - 30 billion, below 2 billion, and above 50 billion slightly increased their stock positions, while others slightly decreased [7] - **Convertible Bond Segment**: Funds with sizes of 10 - 20 billion, 2 - 10 billion, 20 - 30 billion, below 2 billion, 30 - 50 billion, and above 50 billion slightly increased their convertible bond positions, while others slightly decreased [7] 5. Stock Position Details - **All - Market Fixed - Income + Funds**: The stock position this week was 16.97%, with the top three positions in technology, new energy, and resources. The total increase in stock positions across all sectors was 0.63% [10][11] - **Top Fixed - Income + Funds**: The stock position this week was 16.32%, with the top three positions in technology, new energy, and resources. The total increase in stock positions across all sectors was 0.90% [10][11] - **Sector - Specific Changes**: - New energy: All - market increased by 0.11%, top funds by 0.19% [11] - Manufacturing: All - market increased by 0.11%, top funds by 0.16% [11] - Optional consumption: All - market increased by 0.02%, top funds by 0.01% [11] - Pharmaceuticals: All - market increased by 0.07%, top funds by 0.09% [11] - Resources: All - market unchanged, top funds decreased by 0.02% [11] - Industry: All - market increased by 0.04%, top funds by 0.01% [11] - Agriculture: All - market increased by 0.05%, top funds unchanged [11] - Necessary consumption: All - market increased by 0.04%, top funds by 0.09% [11] - Big finance: All - market increased by 0.05%, top funds by 0.08% [11] - Technology: All - market increased by 0.10%, top funds by 0.25% [11] - Cycle: All - market increased by 0.02%, top funds by 0.05% [11]