Investment Rating - The report suggests focusing on sectors driven by domestic AI development such as servers and IDC, as well as sectors like servers and optical modules driven by overseas AI development [5] Core Insights - Marvell reported revenue of $2.075 billion for the quarter, exceeding market expectations and guidance by $15 million, and announced the acquisition of Celestial AI for approximately $3.25 billion to enhance its position in the CPO field [1][50] - AWS launched the AI training chip Trainium 3 with a computing power of 2.52 PFLOPS FP8 at its annual cloud computing event, indicating strong growth in AI infrastructure [1] - Credo's Q2 FY2026 revenue reached $268 million, a year-over-year increase of 272.1%, driven by growth in its core AEC and IC businesses [1] - DeepSeek introduced two AI models, achieving performance levels close to GPT-5, indicating advancements in domestic AI capabilities [1][47] - ByteDance's Doubao team launched the "Doubao Phone Assistant," with the first device selling out quickly, showcasing the potential for AI applications in consumer electronics [1] Summary by Sections Communication Sector - The communication sector shows a steady upward trend, with significant investments in cloud and IDC businesses compensating for pressures in traditional telecom services [14] Server Sector - The server index decreased by 1.22% this week, but AWS's announcement of a significant expansion in AI/HPC data centers suggests ongoing demand growth [2][7] Optical Modules - The optical module index increased by 4.67%, supported by Marvell's strong quarterly performance and strategic acquisition [2][7] IDC Sector - The IDC index rose by 0.50%, with DeepSeek's new AI models expected to drive demand in data centers [3][8] Core Data Updates - Telecom business revenue reached 1.467 trillion yuan in the first ten months of 2025, a year-over-year increase of 0.9% [4][15] - The export value of optical modules decreased by 27.6% year-over-year in October, attributed to domestic companies establishing overseas factories [31] Market Trends - The communication sector's performance this week ranked second among all industries, with notable gains in specific companies [39][42]

Group 1: A-shares and Commodity Markets - The A-share market is experiencing a significant reduction in trading volume, with the average turnover rate dropping to the lowest level since July 2023, indicating a cooling in market activity [3][15] - In contrast, commodity markets, particularly metals like silver and copper, are witnessing strong price increases due to historically low inventory levels, which reflect the industry's adaptation to a relatively stable policy environment [3][18] - The recent surge in commodity prices is attributed to the low inventory situation and the potential for new demand driven by emerging industries and policy changes, challenging traditional static supply-demand pricing perspectives [3][18] Group 2: Financial Market Changes - Recent changes in the financial market include a reduction in risk factors for insurance companies and discussions about expanding capital space and leverage limits for brokerages, which may lead to increased market liquidity [4][32] - Historical data suggests that past relaxations of risk factors and leverage policies have resulted in positive market performance, with non-bank financial institutions outperforming the overall A-share market [4][32] Group 3: Domestic Economic Fundamentals - There are positive signs in the domestic economy, particularly in exports, with the November manufacturing PMI showing significant improvement in new export orders, indicating a potential rebound in China's export growth [5][33] - The recovery in external demand is supported by rising export growth rates in South Korea and increased container throughput at major Chinese ports, suggesting a broader recovery in global trade [5][33] Group 4: Global Economic Outlook - The expectation of a shift to a looser global liquidity environment as the Federal Reserve enters a rate-cutting cycle is anticipated to boost foreign direct investment (FDI) and global trade demand [6][36] - Emerging markets, particularly in Africa and ASEAN, are beginning to see increased FDI inflows, which are expected to contribute to China's export growth [5][36][37] Group 5: Interest Rate Expectations - Recent dovish comments from Federal Reserve officials have led to a rise in December rate cut expectations, although the employment market remains a critical concern, with recent data showing a decline in job numbers [6][52][60] - The market is currently pricing in a higher likelihood of rate cuts in 2026 compared to previous forecasts, indicating a more optimistic outlook for monetary policy adjustments [6][57]

- **DeepSeek-V3.2 introduces DSA mechanism for sparse attention** DeepSeek-V3.2 incorporates DeepSeek Sparse Attention (DSA) mechanism, which reduces attention complexity from traditional full attention $O(n^2)$ to $O(nk)$, where $k$ represents the number of key tokens selected by the Indexer. This significantly improves efficiency for long-text processing, reducing computational costs while maintaining output quality[13][16][19] - **DeepSeek-V3.2 enhances RL framework for tool-use thinking** The model optimizes reinforcement learning algorithms, specifically Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO), and integrates multi-task training (reasoning, tool-use, human preference alignment) into a single RL phase. This improves performance across complex tasks like mathematics and programming, achieving results comparable to GPT-5 and Gemini-3.0-Pro[22][23][25] - **DeepSeek-V3.2 excels in CFLUE financial task evaluations** Using CFLUE benchmarks, DeepSeek-V3.2-reasoner and Speciale versions outperform competitors in financial knowledge assessments and application tasks, including ESG classification, financial event extraction, reading comprehension, and text generation. The Speciale version achieves the highest scores in key scenarios[26][27][30] - **National 2000 Index enhancement strategy with composite factors** The strategy combines factors such as technical, reversal, and residual volatility, neutralized by industry and market capitalization. The enhanced factor achieves an IC mean of 12.63% and a t-statistic of 12.79, demonstrating strong predictive performance[33][34][35] - **National 2000 Index enhancement strategy performance** The strategy, based on enhanced factors, delivers an annualized excess return of 13.39% and an IR of 1.74. November's excess return was 1.84%, showing recovery in performance[37][40][41] - **TSGRU+LGBM machine learning model for index enhancement** The model integrates TimeMixer's multi-scale mixing and seasonal/trend decomposition mechanisms into GRU, combined with LightGBM and traditional factors. It captures recent market trends effectively, achieving strong results across multiple indices[43][44][48] - **TSGRU+LGBM performance on CSI 300 Index** The strategy achieves an annualized excess return of 6.12% and an IR of 1.31. November's excess return was 3.49%, indicating robust recovery[45][48][49] - **TSGRU+LGBM performance on CSI 500 Index** The strategy delivers an annualized excess return of 9.87% and an IR of 2.01. November's excess return was 1.60%, showing improvement[47][52][53] - **TSGRU+LGBM performance on CSI 1000 Index** The strategy achieves an annualized excess return of 13.35% and an IR of 2.48. November's excess return was 0.99%, reflecting stable performance[50][54][55] - **Dividend style timing and stock selection for fixed-income+ strategy** Using 10 macroeconomic and liquidity indicators, the strategy constructs a dynamic event factor system for timing and AI-based stock selection within the CSI Dividend Index. The stock selection strategy achieves an annualized return of 18.81% and a Sharpe ratio of 0.90, outperforming the index[56][57][59]

智元机器人发布灵 心平台，优必选再 获 1.43 亿元大单 分析师：陈传红 SAC:S1130522030001 chenchuanhong＠gjzq.com.cn 分析师：冉婷 产业研究中心 2025 年 12 月 5 日 SAC: S1130524100001 ranting＠gjzq.com.cn 产业研究周报 | 高端装备制造 1 | 证券研究报告 | 核心要点 产业前沿 11 月 24 日，智元机器人正式推出灵心平台（LinkSoul），让每个人都能像搭积 木一样，为机器人自由配置声音、性格、行为与记忆，打造独一无二的智能伙伴； 11 月 24 日，安徽中鼎控股子公司近期收到客户通知，智能热系统成为国内某两 家液冷系统集成商液冷假负载的供应商；11 月 25 日，优必选披露公司于 11 月 21 日中标广西防城港市人形机器人数据采集与测试中心和人工智能科创教育示 范项目，中标金额 2.64 亿元，产品以 Walker S2 为主；11 月 28 日，优必选成 功中标江西九江市人形机器人数据采集与训练中心项目，中标金额为 1.43 亿元。 资本风向 深圳叠动科技有限公司顺利完成新一轮增资扩股，隆盛科技 ...

- The "CSI Central State-owned Enterprises Dividend 50 Index" (931231.CSI) is constructed based on a dual-dimension screening method combining "central enterprise attributes" and "high dividend yield factors" [38][39][43] - The index selects 50 listed companies with high cash dividend yields from central enterprises under the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) and includes companies with stable cash flows, continuous dividends, and clear dividend payout ratios [38][39][43] - The index's sample space includes A-shares and depositary receipts issued by red-chip enterprises, meeting criteria such as being controlled by SASAC, ranking in the top 80% in terms of average daily market value and trading volume over the past year, and maintaining a dividend payout ratio between 0 and 1 over the past three years [38][39][43] - The index is rebalanced annually, with adjustments implemented on the trading day following the second Friday of December each year [38][39][43] Index Backtesting Results - The CSI Central State-owned Enterprises Dividend 50 Index achieved a cumulative return of 7.65% and an annualized return of 5.70% from January 1, 2025, to December 1, 2025 [45][49][51] - The index's annualized volatility was 11.86%, with a Sharpe ratio of 0.31 and a maximum drawdown of 10.82% during the same period [45][49][51] - The weighted dividend yield of the index was 4.46%, ranking among the top in similar indices [49][51][60] Factor Exposure Analysis - Based on the Barra model, the index exhibits significant positive exposure to value factors such as high earnings yield and high book-to-price ratio, while showing negative exposure to risk factors like low beta and low residual volatility [68][70][72] - The index avoids momentum and growth factors, indicating a focus on stable, low-volatility assets rather than chasing market trends [68][70][72]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Alibaba Group, with a target market value of 3.36 trillion RMB and a target price of 192.48 HKD for FY2026 [5]. Core Insights - Alibaba has restructured its organization to focus on "e-commerce, cloud + AI," enhancing resource allocation and competitive response [2][25]. - The company is actively participating in the instant retail market, which is expected to exceed 2 trillion RMB by 2030, thus defending its market share [16]. - Alibaba Cloud is positioned as a top-tier player in AI and cloud computing, with significant investments in self-developed capabilities [4]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Alibaba Group is a leading global e-commerce and internet technology group that has recently restructured its business into four main segments: China E-commerce Group, International Digital Commerce Group, Cloud Intelligence Group, and Others [2]. Investment Logic - Instant retail is crucial for maintaining e-commerce traffic advantages, with a notable increase in daily active users (DAU) and order volumes since May [3]. - The company has seen a significant rise in order volume, with peak orders reaching 120 million in July, and a substantial increase in market share in the food delivery sector [3][19]. - Alibaba's investment in user experience (UE) is expected to improve as scale and efficiency increase, with current losses narrowing significantly [3]. Financial Forecasts, Valuation, and Rating - The adjusted net profit forecasts for FY2026-2028 are 107.9 billion, 149.4 billion, and 175.8 billion RMB, respectively, with corresponding adjusted P/E ratios of 24.8, 17.9, and 15.2 [5]. - The e-commerce business (excluding instant retail) is valued at 11 times earnings, while the cloud business is valued at 7 times sales [5]. - The report anticipates stable market share for Alibaba's traditional e-commerce business and significant growth potential for its cloud services driven by AI [5]. Additional Insights - The report highlights the competitive landscape in the instant retail market, with Alibaba's aggressive strategies to boost user engagement and order fulfillment capabilities [19][39]. - Alibaba's cash reserves are the highest among competitors, providing a strong foundation for sustaining long-term investments in the instant retail sector [51][52]. - The introduction of the "High De" street ranking by Amap aims to synergize online and offline services, indicating potential growth in the in-store business [58].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with expected earnings growth leading to a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 27, 19, and 12 times for the years 2025 to 2027 respectively [6]. Core Insights - The company has introduced a globally innovative multi-purpose vessel designed for the transportation of wind power equipment, which is expected to create new demand due to its cost advantages over conventional vessels [4]. - The domestic wind turbine manufacturers are accelerating their overseas orders, with a significant increase in new contracts signed, indicating a robust growth trajectory for the company's specialized marine services [5]. - The forecasted net profits for the company are projected to be 1.21 billion, 1.66 billion, and 2.63 billion RMB for the years 2025 to 2027, reflecting a strong recovery and growth in profitability [6]. Summary by Sections Event - On December 2, the company participated in the China International Maritime Exhibition and launched a globally innovative multi-purpose vessel [3]. Operational Analysis - The newly launched vessel is optimized for transporting wind power equipment, including main engines, towers, transition pieces, and blades, and is also applicable for offshore engineering and heavy industry [4]. - The vessel features two 800-ton cranes and a cargo area of approximately 7,000 square meters, meeting the requirements for transporting the longest offshore wind turbine blades [4]. Market Outlook - The acceleration of domestic wind turbine exports is evident, with new overseas orders reaching 28 GW in 2024 and a further increase of 27.9 GW in the first eleven months of 2025, marking a year-on-year growth of 68% [5]. - The company is expected to expand its specialized marine service business as it builds its own fleet, which will serve as a second growth curve [5]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company’s revenue is projected to recover from 3.78 billion RMB in 2024 to 12.38 billion RMB by 2027, with a significant growth rate of 70.6% in 2025 [10]. - The net profit is expected to grow from 474 million RMB in 2024 to 2.63 billion RMB in 2027, indicating a compound annual growth rate of 58.43% [10]. - The report highlights an increase in the proportion of offshore engineering service orders, which is anticipated to enhance unit profitability [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [6][13]. Core Insights - The company has introduced a globally innovative multi-purpose vessel designed for the transportation of wind power equipment, which is expected to create new demand due to its cost advantages over conventional vessels [4]. - The domestic wind turbine manufacturers are accelerating their overseas orders, with a significant increase in new contracts signed, suggesting a robust growth trajectory for the company's specialized maritime services [5]. - The forecasted net profits for the company are projected to be 1.21 billion, 1.66 billion, and 2.63 billion RMB for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting a strong growth outlook [6]. Summary by Sections Event - On December 2, the company participated in the China International Maritime Exhibition and launched a globally innovative multi-purpose vessel [3]. Operational Analysis - The newly launched vessel is optimized for transporting wind power equipment, including main engines, towers, transition pieces, and blades, and can also serve heavy industrial and offshore engineering sectors. It features two 800-ton cranes and a cargo area of approximately 7,000 square meters, meeting the requirements for the longest offshore wind turbine blades [4]. Market Outlook - The acceleration of domestic wind turbine exports is evident, with new overseas orders reaching 28 GW in 2024 and further increasing by 68% in the first eleven months of 2025. This trend is expected to continue, enhancing the company's growth potential in specialized maritime services [5]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company’s net profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.21 billion, 1.66 billion, and 2.63 billion RMB respectively. The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 27, 19, and 12 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [6][10].

- The report mentions the performance of enhanced index funds, including the Ping An CSI 300 Quantitative Enhanced A fund, which achieved an excess return of 2.01% last week relative to its benchmark[5][41][43] - The Great Wall CSI 500 Enhanced A fund delivered an excess return of 0.84% last week, while the Changxin CSI 1000 Enhanced A fund achieved an excess return of 1.47% during the same period[5][41][43] - The Huixintong Guozheng 2000 Enhanced A fund performed best among the Guozheng 2000 Enhanced Index funds, with an excess return of 0.69% last week[5][41][43] - Over the past year, the best-performing enhanced index fund in the CSI 300 category was the E Fund CSI 300 Select Enhanced A fund, with an excess return of 13.34%[42][43] - In the CSI 500 category, the Penghua CSI 500 Enhanced A fund achieved the highest excess return of 17.85% over the past year[42][43] - The Huixintong CSI 1000 Enhanced A fund delivered the best performance in the CSI 1000 category, with an excess return of 25.83% over the past year[42][43] - The Huixintong Guozheng 2000 Enhanced A fund also led the Guozheng 2000 category, with an excess return of 30.78% over the past year[42][43]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: TimeMixer-based Hot Concept Index Rotation Strategy - **Model Construction Idea**: Aggregate individual stock Alpha factors into concept indices and construct a rotation strategy based on the aggregated factor scores[4][39][44] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Develop Alpha factors at the individual stock level[39] 2. Aggregate these Alpha factors into concept indices using equal weighting, as Wind Hot Concept Indices are equally weighted[4][44] 3. Perform factor IC tests on the aggregated indices, achieving an IC mean of 7.27%[44][49] 4. Construct a weekly rotation strategy by selecting the top 10 concept indices with the highest model scores and allocating them equally[4][51] 5. Backtest the strategy from January 4, 2019, to August 29, 2025, with a transaction cost of 0.1% per side[4][51] - **Model Evaluation**: The strategy demonstrates strong performance with consistent positive excess returns over the benchmark in all years[4][51][57] 2. Model Name: Alpha Stock Portfolio Based on Hot Concept Index Rotation Effect - **Model Construction Idea**: Enhance the operability of the rotation strategy by selecting a smaller number of representative stocks from the concept index components[64] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Use weekly signals from the concept index rotation strategy[64] 2. Rank the component stocks of the indices based on the TimeMixer-enhanced machine learning Alpha factor[64] 3. Select the top 20 stocks and construct an equally weighted portfolio[64] 4. Backtest the strategy from January 2, 2019, to August 29, 2025, with a transaction cost of 0.1% per side[64] - **Model Evaluation**: The strategy achieves stable positive excess returns in most years but shows no significant advantage over traditional machine learning methods[64][65] 3. Model Name: Leading Stock Portfolio Based on Hot Concept Index Rotation Effect - **Model Construction Idea**: Identify core leading stocks within concept indices using the Free Cash Flow to Enterprise Value (FCF2EV) factor[70] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Define the FCF2EV factor as the ratio of free cash flow (FCF) to enterprise value (EV), where FCF = (1-t) * EBIT + depreciation/amortization - CapEx - net working capital changes, and EV = market capitalization + total debt - cash[70] 2. Select the top 2 stocks with the highest FCF2EV values from each concept index's components weekly[70] 3. Construct an equally weighted portfolio and backtest the strategy from January 2, 2019, to August 29, 2025, with a transaction cost of 0.1% per side[70] - **Model Evaluation**: The strategy performs well, achieving positive excess returns in all years, though it underperforms in growth-dominated years due to the value and large-cap bias of the FCF2EV factor[70][75] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. TimeMixer-based Hot Concept Index Rotation Strategy - Annualized Excess Return (vs. CSI All Share Index): 18.06%[51][52] - Annualized Excess Return (vs. Equal-weighted Hot Concept Index): 9.02%[51][52] - Information Ratio (IR, vs. CSI All Share Index): 1.73[51][52] - Information Ratio (IR, vs. Equal-weighted Hot Concept Index): 0.76[51][52] - Maximum Excess Drawdown (vs. CSI All Share Index): 9.97%[51][52] - Maximum Excess Drawdown (vs. Equal-weighted Hot Concept Index): 21.74%[51][52] 2. Alpha Stock Portfolio Based on Hot Concept Index Rotation Effect - Annualized Excess Return: 11.34%[64][65] - Information Ratio (IR): 0.79[64][65] - Maximum Excess Drawdown: 22.87%[64][65] 3. Leading Stock Portfolio Based on Hot Concept Index Rotation Effect - Annualized Excess Return (vs. CSI All Share Index): 20.63%[71][73] - Annualized Excess Return (vs. Equal-weighted Hot Concept Index): 11.52%[71][73] - Information Ratio (IR, vs. CSI All Share Index): 1.61[71][73] - Information Ratio (IR, vs. Equal-weighted Hot Concept Index): 0.88[71][73] - Maximum Excess Drawdown (vs. CSI All Share Index): 21.65%[71][73] - Maximum Excess Drawdown (vs. Equal-weighted Hot Concept Index): 21.02%[71][73] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Momentum Factor (Monthly and Weekly) - **Factor Construction Idea**: Evaluate the momentum characteristics of the Hot Concept Indices[23] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Calculate the Rank IC as: $ RankIC_t = corr(Rank(X_{t,m}), Rank(r_{t+1,m})) $ where $X_{t,m}$ is the factor value, and $r_{t+1,m}$ is the next period's asset return[23] 2. Divide assets into 10 groups based on factor values and construct long-short portfolios (L-S portfolios) by going long on the top group and short on the bottom group[23] - **Factor Evaluation**: The monthly momentum factor shows weaker monotonicity in long-short portfolio returns compared to the weekly momentum factor[23][26] 2. Factor Name: Free Cash Flow to Enterprise Value (FCF2EV) - **Factor Construction Idea**: Identify leading stocks with strong financial health and risk resistance within concept indices[70] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Define FCF2EV as: $ FCF2EV = \frac{FCF}{EV} $ where $ FCF = (1-t) * EBIT + Depreciation/Amortization - CapEx - Net Working Capital Changes $ and $ EV = Market Capitalization + Total Debt - Cash $[70] 2. Calculate FCF2EV for each stock in the concept index components and rank them[70] - **Factor Evaluation**: The FCF2EV factor aligns with value and large-cap styles, performing well in most years but underperforming in growth-dominated years[70][75] --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. Momentum Factor - Monthly Momentum Factor: - IC Mean: 1.35%[26] - Long-only Annualized Excess Return: 22.17%[26] - Long-only IR: 0.36[26] - Long-short Annualized Excess Return: 11.13%[26] - Long-short IR: -0.31[26] - Weekly Momentum Factor: - IC Mean: 2.38%[26] - Long-only Annualized Excess Return: 24.03%[26] - Long-only IR: 0.53[26] - Long-short Annualized Excess Return: 12.21%[26] - Long-short IR: -0.26[26] 2. Free Cash Flow to Enterprise Value (FCF2EV) Factor - Annualized Excess Return (vs. CSI All Share Index): 20.63%[71][73] - Annualized Excess Return (vs. Equal-weighted Hot Concept Index): 11.52%[71][73] - Information Ratio (IR, vs. CSI All Share Index): 1.61[71][73] - Information Ratio (IR, vs. Equal-weighted Hot Concept Index): 0.88[71][73] - Maximum Excess Drawdown (vs. CSI All Share Index): 21.65%[71][73] - Maximum Excess Drawdown (vs. Equal-weighted Hot Concept Index): 21.02%[71][73]