Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints The report conducts a preliminary exploration of the pricing rules of secondary and perpetual bonds (referred to as "two - perpetual bonds") issued by state - owned large - scale banks and their association with institutional behaviors. It analyzes the influence of the new VAT regulation on the pricing of new and old bonds, the pricing rules in the primary and secondary markets, and potential trading opportunities [2][11]. Group 1: Bank Sub - debt Subtle Clues - The new VAT regulation took effect on August 8th, dividing the interest income of bonds into taxable and tax - exempt based on the issuance time. To make the after - tax yields of new and old bonds of the same variety with similar remaining maturities and issued by the same entity equal, the coupon rate of new bonds should be higher than that of old bonds. For general financial institutions, the pre - tax yield ratio of new and old bonds should be around 1.068; for asset management institutions, this ratio is 1.034 [2][11]. - After August 8th, three new two - perpetual bonds were issued by large - scale banks. The ratio of the coupon rate to the issuance - day valuation of 5 + 5 - year and 10 + 5 - year secondary capital bonds is 1.035 and 1.071 respectively, indicating that the 10 + 5 - year variety contains more tax cost compensation. The difference between the coupon rate and the valuation of 5 + N - year bank perpetual bonds is only 0.01bp, showing that the tax cost compensation in the pricing of perpetual bonds is not significant [2][15]. - The pricing of new two - perpetual bonds is related to the subscription power of institutions participating in the primary market. For 5 + 5 - year secondary capital bonds, large - scale and city commercial banks' self - operations are net sellers on the first active trading day, while joint - stock banks, funds, and other product categories are net buyers. For 10 + 5 - year secondary capital bonds, city commercial banks, joint - stock banks, and securities self - operations are net sellers, and insurance, funds, and other product categories are net buyers. For bank perpetual bonds, large - scale, joint - stock, city commercial, and rural commercial banks are net sellers, and other product categories, funds, and insurance are net buyers [18][24][32]. Group 2: Review of Two - perpetual Bond Pricing Rules - The pricing logic of new bonds in the cash market is dominated by trading desks. For 5 - year large - scale bank secondary capital bonds, the yield ratio of new and old bonds is generally between 1.03 and 1.04 and shows an upward trend. The slow decline in the valuation of new bonds is due to the immature pricing mechanism after the implementation of the new VAT regulation, which makes investors prefer old bonds [4][42]. - For 10 - year large - scale bank secondary capital bonds, the yield ratio of new and old bonds is concentrated between 1.028 and 1.038 and has decreased significantly compared to the initial listing. After the holiday, the ratio has rebounded, affected by the lower liquidity of new bonds and the increased profit - taking by bank self - operations. The continuous buying by insurance indicates that ultra - long - term secondary bonds still need to stabilize [4][48]. - For large - scale bank perpetual bonds, the yield ratio of new and old bonds fluctuates between 1.015 and 1.022. It is lower than that of secondary capital bonds because the trading volume of bank self - operations and other institutions is relatively small, and the liquidity of perpetual bonds is poor. When funds net - buy new perpetual bonds, the yield ratio of new and old bonds increases; when the selling volume of funds increases, the yield ratio decreases, indicating that new perpetual bonds have better defensive properties [5][55]. Group 3: Some Thoughts on Trading Opportunities - The yield of 5 - year large - scale bank secondary capital bonds fluctuates around the spread range of 10 - year treasury bonds. When the yield breaks through the upper limit of 10 - year treasury bonds + 30bp, the probability of a subsequent rebound increases; when it breaks through the lower limit of treasury bonds + 20bp, the probability of a subsequent correction rises. However, the new bonds issued after August 8th may be affected by the VAT on interest income, which may interfere with the effectiveness of the signal [64]. - One way to deal with new bonds is to convert the yield of new secondary capital bonds through the yield ratio of comparable new and old bonds, but its effectiveness is difficult to verify. Another way is to construct a new rotation signal using new 5 - year secondary capital bonds and 10 - year treasury bonds. The new bond combination will indicate an oversold rebound later and an over - bought defense earlier compared to the initial signal. Institutions with a lower VAT rate can obtain excess tax compensation by investing in new bonds with higher tax compensation [68].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the machinery equipment sector, with specific recommendations for stocks such as XCMG, Hengli Hydraulic, SANY Heavy Industry, Zoomlion, LiuGong, and YTO Group [10]. Core Insights - The machinery equipment index rose by 4.71% in the last week, outperforming the CSI 300 index, which increased by 3.24% [13][15]. - Year-to-date, the machinery equipment index has increased by 35.02%, ranking fifth among 31 primary industry categories [15]. - The report highlights a significant increase in engineering machinery exports, with a total of $43.855 billion from January to September 2025, marking a year-on-year growth of 13.3% [4][23]. - The report emphasizes the potential growth in quantum computing and controllable nuclear fusion as new economic growth points, supported by top-level policy and funding [4][23]. - Tesla's humanoid robot production plans are seen as a strategic opportunity for the robotics sector, with expectations for significant commercialization by 2026 [4][23]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The SW Machinery Equipment Index increased by 4.71% last week, ranking fourth among 31 primary industry categories [13][15]. - Year-to-date performance shows a 35.02% increase in the SW Machinery Equipment Index, compared to an 18.44% increase in the CSI 300 Index [15]. Key Data Tracking General Machinery - The general machinery sector continues to face pressure, with the manufacturing PMI at 49.8% in September, indicating contraction [22]. - Forklift sales in September reached 130,380 units, a year-on-year increase of 23% [22]. Engineering Machinery - In September, total excavator sales reached 19,858 units, a year-on-year increase of 25.4%, with both domestic and international sales showing strong growth [31]. Railway Equipment - The railway equipment sector is experiencing steady growth, with fixed asset investment in railways maintaining a growth rate of around 6% [42]. Shipbuilding - The shipbuilding sector is seeing a slowdown in price declines, with the global new ship price index at 185.58 as of September 2025 [44]. Oilfield Equipment - The oilfield equipment sector is stabilizing at the bottom, with an increase in global rig counts and expected growth in oil and gas extraction demand [46]. Industrial Gases - A decrease in raw material prices is expected to improve profitability in the steel sector, which may boost demand for industrial gases [50]. Gas Turbines - The gas turbine sector is showing robust growth, with GEV reporting a 39% year-on-year increase in new gas turbine orders in the first three quarters of 2025 [52].

行业点评 本周 A 股地产、港股地产、港股物业均上涨。本周（10.18-10.24）申万 A 股房地产板块涨跌幅为+1.5%，在各板 块中位列第 18；恒生港股房地产板块涨跌幅为+1.2%，在各板块中位列第 8。本周恒生物业服务及管理指数涨跌幅为 +2.2%，恒生中国企业指数涨跌幅为+3.9%，沪深 300 指数涨跌幅为+3.2%；物业指数对恒生中国企业指数和沪深 300 的相对收益分别为-1.7%和-1%。 土地市场溢价率处于低位。本周（10.18-10.24）全国 300 城宅地成交建面 1521 万㎡，单周环比 52%，单周同比 -14%，平均溢价率 4%。2025 年初至今，全国 300 城累计宅地成交建面 33812 万㎡，累计同比-9.9%；年初至今，中海 地产、绿城中国、保利发展、建发房产、招商蛇口的权益拿地金额位居行业前五。 本周(10.18-10.24)47 个城市商品房销售 429 万方，成交量环比+4%，同比-13%，整体处于季节性低位；9 月新房 售价环比-0.4%，环比跌幅略有扩大，同比-2.7%，同比降幅持续收窄；结合量价，景气度下行趋缓。本周分能级来看： 一线城市周环比+10%， ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [4]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 18.39 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 68.6%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 1.79 billion yuan, up 84.3% year-on-year [2]. - The revenue for Q3 was 6.65 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 56.8%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 0.55 billion yuan, growing 45.9% year-on-year [2]. - The company is experiencing strong sales growth in electric two-wheelers, toC scooters, and all-terrain vehicles, with electric two-wheeler sales reaching 1.487 million units and revenue of 4.45 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 71.8% [3]. Summary by Sections Performance Review - The company achieved a revenue of 18.39 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, with a net profit of 1.79 billion yuan, reflecting significant growth rates of 68.6% and 84.3% respectively [2]. - Q3 results showed revenue of 6.65 billion yuan and a net profit of 0.55 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 56.8% and 45.9% [2]. Operational Analysis - Revenue growth exceeded expectations, while profit growth was in line with expectations. The slower profit growth was attributed to seasonal demand fluctuations and foreign exchange losses [3]. - The company expanded its store network significantly, with over 9,700 stores for electric two-wheelers in China as of September 30, 2025, and an 18% increase in store efficiency [3]. Profit Forecast, Valuation, and Rating - The company is expected to see substantial growth in its electric two-wheeler and robotic lawnmower businesses, with revenue projections of 21.7 billion yuan, 27.3 billion yuan, and 33.1 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4]. - The forecasted net profits for the same years are 2.1 billion yuan, 2.7 billion yuan, and 3.5 billion yuan, indicating growth rates of 90%, 31%, and 29% respectively [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for future performance [4]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 217 million yuan for Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 12.7%. The gross profit was 191 million yuan, with a growth of 10.7%. The net profit attributable to the parent company, after deducting non-recurring items, reached 41 million yuan, marking a significant increase of 68.3% year-on-year [2]. - The cash received from sales of goods and services in Q3 2025 was 267 million yuan, up 17.3% compared to the same period last year, outpacing revenue growth [2]. - The company has expanded its product offerings in mobile intelligent terminal visual solutions and smart automotive sectors, achieving notable revenue growth in these areas [3]. - The forecast for revenue from 2025 to 2027 is projected to be 929 million yuan, 1.135 billion yuan, and 1.438 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding growth rates of 14.0%, 22.1%, and 26.7% [4]. Summary by Sections Performance Review - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 217 million yuan, a 12.7% increase year-on-year, with a gross profit of 191 million yuan, reflecting a 10.7% growth. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 41 million yuan, up 68.3% year-on-year [2]. Operational Analysis - Revenue from mobile intelligent terminal visual solutions reached 170 million yuan in Q3 2025, growing by 12.9% year-on-year. The smart automotive and AIoT sectors generated 40 million yuan, with a growth of 10.3% [3]. - The company has successfully integrated its smart super-domain fusion products across various device tiers and established partnerships in the AI glasses and robotics sectors [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 929 million yuan, 1.135 billion yuan, and 1.438 billion yuan, with net profits expected to be 238 million yuan, 365 million yuan, and 579 million yuan, respectively [4].

Core Insights - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the utility and environmental protection industry, highlighting a 4.5% year-on-year increase in electricity consumption in September, with resilience in industrial and commercial electricity demand [1][4]. Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 2.88% and the ChiNext Index increased by 8.05% during the week of October 20-24. The coal sector rose by 1.74%, utilities by 1.02%, environmental protection by 1.75%, and carbon neutrality by 2.44% [1][12]. Industry Outlook Thermal Power - The report suggests focusing on thermal power companies with assets in regions where electricity supply is tight and competition is favorable, such as Sheneng Co. and Huadian International [4]. - Coal prices are expected to rise due to supply constraints from abnormal weather and regulatory checks, with a notable increase post-National Day [31]. - Electricity consumption in September showed a year-on-year growth of 4.5%, with industrial sectors growing at 7.3%, 5.7%, and 6.3% respectively [31]. Hydropower - The report recommends focusing on leading hydropower operators like Yangtze Power, as the sector benefits from stable electricity prices and regional supply-demand dynamics [4][32]. - Significant increases in inflow to major hydropower stations were noted, with a 80%+ year-on-year growth in inflow to the Three Gorges and Xiluodu reservoirs [32]. Nuclear Power - The report highlights the potential of China National Nuclear Power, as the market for electricity pricing becomes more favorable [4][32]. - The nuclear power sector is expected to stabilize, with new units coming online and electricity prices remaining steady [32]. Renewable Energy - The report suggests focusing on leading new energy companies like Longyuan Power, as the wind and solar sectors are expected to see stable growth despite recent slowdowns in installation rates [4][33]. Industry Data Tracking Coal Prices - The report tracks coal prices, noting that the European ARA coal price was $91.60/ton, up 1.66%, while Newcastle coal was $103.60/ton, down 0.48% [35]. - Domestic coal prices also saw increases, with the price at Guanzhou Port for Indonesian coal at 769.61 RMB/ton, up 1.27% [35]. Natural Gas Prices - The report notes that the ICE UK natural gas price rose to 81.31 pence/therm, a 1.71% increase, while the Henry Hub price was $3.33/million BTU, up 10.63% [51]. Carbon Market - The national carbon market's carbon emission allowance price was reported at 54.70 RMB/ton, reflecting a 4.77% increase [58]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on thermal power companies with strong asset positioning, hydropower operators benefiting from stable pricing, and nuclear power companies with growth potential [4][65].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [5]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 7.5 billion RMB for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 11.9%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 914 million RMB, a decrease of 1.95% year-on-year. In Q3 alone, revenue reached 3.07 billion RMB, up 16.6% year-on-year and 34.2% quarter-on-quarter, with net profit of 441 million RMB, marking a 53.1% year-on-year increase and a 129.6% quarter-on-quarter increase [2]. - The delivery of submarine cables accelerated in Q3, establishing a performance inflection point. Revenue from submarine and high-voltage cables for the first three quarters was 3.55 billion RMB, up 35.8% year-on-year, with Q3 revenue at 1.59 billion RMB, a 109.2% quarter-on-quarter increase. The company’s contract liabilities (advance payments) reached 1.57 billion RMB, an increase of 83.1% year-on-year, while inventory grew to 3.63 billion RMB, up 105% year-on-year [3]. - As of October 23, 2025, the company had a backlog of orders amounting to approximately 19.6 billion RMB, with a slight structural improvement. The backlog for submarine and high-voltage cables was about 11.7 billion RMB, up 6.7% quarter-on-quarter [4]. Summary by Sections Performance Review - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 7.5 billion RMB, with a net profit of 914 million RMB. Q3 revenue was 3.07 billion RMB, with a net profit of 441 million RMB [2]. Operational Analysis - The company’s submarine cable delivery accelerated, with significant revenue growth in Q3. The backlog of orders remains high, indicating potential for future revenue growth [3][4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is 1.54 billion RMB, 2.05 billion RMB, and 2.55 billion RMB, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 30, 22, and 18 [5].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the chemical industry, particularly highlighting the strong performance of the communication and electronics sectors, with the Shenwan Chemical Index rising by 2.14% [1]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the ongoing recovery in demand for storage chips, with Samsung and SK Hynix raising DRAM and NAND flash prices by up to 30% in Q4, indicating a "super cycle" in the storage chip market [3]. - The report notes significant developments in the AI industry, including the launch of OpenAI's ChatGPT Atlas and a $10 billion partnership between Anthropic and Google Cloud, reflecting a positive trend in industry sentiment [1]. - The report suggests focusing on the storage industry chain, which is expected to maintain a favorable outlook due to rising demand and pricing power [1]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The Brent crude oil average price for the week was $63.37 per barrel, up 2.22% from the previous week, while the WTI average was $59.31 per barrel, up 1.75% [10]. - The basic chemical sector underperformed the index with a decline of 1.11%, while the petrochemical sector outperformed with a gain of 1.09% [10]. Key Events - The report highlights the upcoming trade discussions between the US and China, scheduled for October 24-27, which may ease trade tensions [1]. - The report also mentions the Chinese government's focus on fostering emerging industries, with a target for the "three new" economy to account for over 18% of GDP by 2024 [2]. Price Movements - The report provides insights into price changes for key chemical products, noting that the price of titanium dioxide has stabilized despite cost pressures [29]. - The report indicates that the price of carbon dioxide dimethyl carbonate has decreased by 1.22% to 3680 yuan/ton, reflecting weak demand [28]. Industry Trends - The report discusses the recovery in the tire industry, with improved operating rates and rising rubber prices, driven by both domestic and international demand [26]. - The report notes that the dye market is experiencing stable prices, with demand remaining weak and trade activity limited [27].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with expected net profits of 1.9 billion, 2.3 billion, and 2.8 billion for the years 2025 to 2027, corresponding to PE ratios of 40, 33, and 28 respectively [6] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 386 million in Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 10.49%, and a net profit of 51 million, up 11.43% year-on-year, with a net profit margin of 13.13% [2] - The company's major product lines, particularly the "Medical Research 7 Days" series, are experiencing strong growth, with online sales in the toothpaste category reaching 110 million, a 14.1% increase year-on-year [3] - Short-term gross margin is under pressure due to increased promotional activities, but overall profitability has improved due to excellent cost control [4] - The company is positioned as a leader in the sensitive teeth segment with over 60% market share, and is focusing on high-end products to optimize profit structure and drive market share growth [5] Financial Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the gross margin was 50.50%, a year-on-year increase of 1.24 percentage points, while Q3 gross margin was 45.9%, down 8.03 percentage points year-on-year [4] - The company expects revenue growth rates of 4.76%, 13.40%, 11.41%, 15.45%, and 15.81% from 2023 to 2027, with net profit growth rates of 4.97%, 14.07%, 18.65%, 20.86%, and 20.22% respectively [11] - The report includes a detailed forecast of the income statement, balance sheet, and cash flow statement, indicating a steady growth trajectory for the company [13]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the innovative drug sector and suggests focusing on quality defensive assets in the pharmacy sector [1][11]. Core Views - The innovative drug industry continues to show long-term potential, with Chinese pharmaceutical companies demonstrating their strength in international markets. The report anticipates further business development (BD) activities from domestic companies [2][37]. - In the pharmacy sector, leading companies are expected to enhance their market share through mergers and acquisitions, supported by strong cash flow and self-sustaining capabilities. The report highlights the defensive attributes of these leading pharmacies [2][47]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the updates to the essential drug list and identifies companies with potential for inclusion, such as Fangsheng Pharmaceutical [2][11]. Summary by Sections Innovative Drugs - The report highlights a significant global strategic partnership between Innovent Biologics and Takeda, involving three second-generation IO and ADC products, with a total transaction value potentially reaching $11.4 billion [2][37]. - It suggests focusing on dual/multi-antibody drugs and slow disease medications that meet unmet clinical needs, as well as ADC and small nucleic acid therapies [11]. Pharmacies - The report notes that the retail scale of physical pharmacies in China reached 50.4 billion yuan in August 2025, indicating a recovery trend despite a slight year-on-year decline [2][42]. - Leading pharmacy chains are expected to increase their market share during the industry clearing phase, with a focus on mergers and acquisitions when the timing is right [2][47]. Traditional Chinese Medicine - The report advises paying attention to the progress of the essential drug list updates and highlights companies like Huazhong Sanjiu that have already absorbed high baseline pressures [2][11]. Biopharmaceuticals - The report discusses the promising results of the ASO drug Bepirovirsen for hepatitis B treatment, suggesting continued monitoring of research developments in this area [3][11]. Medical Devices - The report indicates that leading companies are accelerating their international strategies, with successful product registrations in markets like Ecuador [3][11]. Medical Services and Consumer Healthcare - The report notes a year-on-year increase in total medical visits in Chongqing, suggesting a recovery in the medical services sector [3][11].