1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coal mining industry is "Bullish" [2] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Currently, the coal economy is at the beginning of a new upward cycle, with fundamental and policy factors in resonance. It is advisable to allocate the coal sector at low levels [11]. - The underlying investment logic of coal production capacity shortage remains unchanged. The coal price has established a bottom and its central level has reached a new platform. High - quality coal enterprises maintain their core asset attributes, and coal assets are still undervalued with potential for valuation improvement. The coal sector has both dividend characteristics and pro - cyclical elasticity [3]. - In the context of energy inflation, the pattern of tight coal supply and demand in the next 3 - 5 years remains unchanged. High - quality coal enterprises have high - barrier, high - cash, high - dividend, and high - dividend - yield attributes. After a short - term correction, the coal sector has shown high investment value [3]. 3. Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Core Viewpoints and Key Concerns - **Core Viewpoints**: In the short - term, coal supply and demand are basically balanced, but there is a long - term gap. Coal prices are expected to rise further due to tight supply and upcoming seasonal demand. Coal assets are cost - effective, with high win - rate and high odds. The report continues to be bullish on coal and suggests allocation at low levels [11]. - **Key Concerns**: From January to October 2025, China's coal imports decreased by 11.0% year - on - year. From January to September 2025, coal and coking coal imports in India decreased by 1.0% year - on - year, and in Japan decreased by 2.3% year - on - year [13] 3.2 This Week's Performance of the Coal Sector and Individual Stocks - The coal sector rose 4.43% this week, outperforming the market. The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index rose 0.82% [14]. - The thermal coal sector rose 4.60%, the coking coal sector rose 2.46%, and the coke sector rose 6.42% [15]. - The top three stocks in terms of gains and losses in the coal mining and washing sector were Huayang Co., Ltd. (11.50%), Jinkong Coal Industry (10.11%), and China National Coal Group Corporation (8.54%) [18] 3.3 Coal Price Tracking - **Coal Price Index**: As of November 7, the comprehensive transaction price of CCTD Qinhuangdao thermal coal (Q5500) was 703.0 yuan/ton, up 10.0 yuan/ton week - on - week. The comprehensive average price index of Bohai Rim thermal coal (Q5500) was 694.0 yuan/ton, up 9.0 yuan/ton week - on - week. The annual long - term contract price of CCTD Qinhuangdao thermal coal (Q5500) was 684.0 yuan/ton, up 8.0 yuan/ton month - on - month [23]. - **Thermal Coal Price**: As of November 8, the market price of Qinhuangdao Port thermal coal (Q5500) from Shanxi was 808 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton week - on - week. International thermal coal FOB prices also increased [29]. - **Coking Coal Price**: As of November 7, the ex - warehouse price of primary coking coal from Shanxi at Jingtang Port was 1800 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton week - on - week. The CIF price of Australian Peak View Mine hard coking coal in China was 212.3 US dollars/ton, up 0.6 US dollars/ton week - on - week [31]. - **Anthracite and Pulverized Coal Price**: As of November 7, the wagon - loading price of Jiaozuo anthracite was 1020.0 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week. The wagon - loading prices of pulverized coal in Changzhi Lucheng and Yangquan increased [39] 3.4 Coal Supply and Demand Tracking - **Coal Mine Capacity Utilization**: As of November 7, the capacity utilization rate of sample thermal coal mines was 91.1%, up 0.6 percentage points week - on - week, and that of sample coking coal mines was 83.76%, down 1.0 percentage points week - on - week [46]. - **Import Coal Price Difference**: As of November 7, the price difference between domestic and foreign 5000 - kcal thermal coal was - 79.1 yuan/ton, down 19.5 yuan/ton week - on - week; the price difference for 4000 - kcal thermal coal was - 75.2 yuan/ton, down 20.1 yuan/ton week - on - week [42]. - **Coal - fired Power Consumption and Inventory**: Inland 17 provinces' coal inventory increased, while daily consumption decreased. Coastal 8 provinces' coal inventory decreased, while daily consumption increased [45]. - **Downstream Metallurgical Demand**: As of November 7, the Myspic comprehensive steel price index decreased, the price of Tangshan - produced primary metallurgical coke increased, the blast furnace operating rate increased, and the profit per ton of coke in independent coking enterprises increased [64][65]. - **Downstream Chemical and Building Materials Demand**: As of November 7, the prices of urea in some regions decreased, the national methanol, ethylene glycol, and acetic acid price indices decreased, the synthetic ammonia price index increased, the cement price index increased slightly, the cement clinker capacity utilization rate decreased, the float glass operating rate decreased, and the weekly coal consumption in the chemical industry increased [70][74][76] 3.5 Coal Inventory Situation - **Thermal Coal Inventory**: As of November 7, the coal inventory at Qinhuangdao Port increased to 577.0 tons. The 55 - port thermal coal inventory decreased to 6148.7 tons as of October 31, and the production - area inventory decreased to 292.0 tons [91]. - **Coking Coal Inventory**: As of November 7, the production - area coking coal inventory increased to 165.6 tons, the six - port coking coal inventory increased to 304.3 tons, the coking enterprise inventory increased to 923.8 tons, and the steel mill inventory decreased to 787.3 tons [92]. - **Coke Inventory**: As of November 7, the total coke inventory of coking plants, four - port coke inventory, and the total coke inventory of domestic sample steel mills all decreased [94] 3.6 Coal Transportation Situation - **International and Domestic Coal Transportation**: As of November 7, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was 2104.0 points, up 138.0 points week - on - week. As of November 6, the average daily coal shipment volume of the Datong - Qinhuangdao Railway increased slightly week - on - week [108]. - **Ratio of Cargo to Ships at Four Ports in the Bohai Rim**: As of November 7, the inventory of four ports in the Bohai Rim was 1449.0 tons, the number of anchored ships was 106, and the cargo - to - ship ratio was 13.7, down 4.03 week - on - week [106] 3.7 Weather Conditions - As of November 7, the Three Gorges outflow was 10200 cubic meters per second, down 23.88% week - on - week. - In the next 10 days (November 9 - 18), there will be precipitation in some areas, with high - impact weather including cooling in Xinjiang and central - eastern regions. - In the next 11 - 14 days (November 19 - 22), there will be light precipitation in some areas, and the average temperature in some regions will be different from the normal level [113] 3.8 Listed Company Valuation Table and Key Announcements - **Listed Company Valuation Table**: The table provides the closing prices, net profits attributable to the parent company, EPS, and P/E ratios of key listed coal companies from 2024A to 2027E [114]. - **Key Announcements**: Companies such as Meijin Energy, China Shenhua, and Hengyuan Coal and Electricity have made announcements regarding project terminations, asset acquisitions, and corporate restructurings [115][116][118]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the oil processing industry, consistent with the previous rating [1]. Core Insights - International oil prices have declined due to concerns over interest rate cuts and strong demand for safe-haven assets, alongside weak manufacturing data from Asia and the US. As of November 7, 2025, Brent and WTI prices were $63.63 and $59.84 per barrel, respectively [2][9]. - The oil and petrochemical sector has shown strong performance, with the sector rising by 4.47% as of November 7, 2025, compared to a 0.82% increase in the CSI 300 index [10][13]. - The report highlights significant increases in US crude oil imports and a rise in total crude oil inventory, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics [49][53]. Summary by Sections Oil Price Review - As of November 7, 2025, Brent crude futures settled at $63.63 per barrel, down $1.14 (-1.76%) from the previous week, while WTI crude futures also fell by $1.14 (-1.87%) to $59.84 per barrel [22][24]. Offshore Drilling Services - The number of global offshore self-elevating drilling rigs remained stable at 369, and floating drilling rigs at 130 as of November 3, 2025 [26]. Crude Oil Supply - US crude oil production reached 13.651 million barrels per day as of October 31, 2025, an increase of 0.07 million barrels per day from the previous week. The number of active drilling rigs was stable at 414 [40][41]. Crude Oil Demand - US refinery crude oil processing increased to 15.256 million barrels per day as of October 31, 2025, with a refinery utilization rate of 86.00%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous week [52]. Crude Oil Inventory - Total US crude oil inventory was 831 million barrels as of October 31, 2025, reflecting an increase of 5.7 million barrels (+0.69%) from the previous week [53]. Refined Oil Prices - In North America, the average prices for diesel, gasoline, and jet fuel were $102.44, $80.90, and $94.67 per barrel, respectively, as of November 7, 2025 [82][86].

- The report does not contain any specific quantitative models or factors for analysis [1][2][3] - The report primarily focuses on market trends, fund positions, and industry movements without detailing quantitative models or factor construction [4][5][6] - No formulas, construction processes, or performance metrics related to quantitative models or factors are provided in the report [7][8][9]

Group 1: Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Group 2: Report's Core View - The central bank's 7D OMO net withdrawal this week reached the highest level since February 2024, but the liquidity remained generally loose at the beginning of the month. After the large - scale maturity of the 3M repurchase on Friday, the liquidity tightened marginally, but the DR001 remained stable at slightly above 1.3%. The central bank may increase hedging after such a tightening, and the liquidity is expected to return to stability [3][7]. - The government bond net payment scale will rise to a new high since mid - July next week. The central bank's possible increase in the scale of buying treasury bonds in the open market to replace repurchase operations to supplement medium - and long - term liquidity is worthy of attention [3][18]. - It is estimated that the government bond issuance scale in November will be about 1.84 trillion yuan, with a net financing of about 1.15 trillion yuan, an increase of about 620 billion yuan compared with October. The government bond issuance in December is expected to be about 2.37 trillion yuan, with a net financing of about 77 billion yuan [3][30]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs I. Money Market 1.1 This Week's Liquidity Review - The central bank's 7D OMO net withdrawal was 1.5722 trillion yuan this week, reaching the highest level since February 2024. The 3M repurchase operation on Wednesday offset the maturity on Friday. The liquidity remained loose at the beginning of the month and tightened marginally on Friday after the 3M repurchase maturity, but the DR001 remained stable at slightly above 1.3% [3][7]. - After the cross - month period, the repurchase market activity increased. The average daily trading volume of pledged repurchase rose by 1.27 trillion yuan to 7.97 trillion yuan compared with last week. The overall scale of pledged repurchase returned above 12 trillion yuan but decreased significantly on Friday [3][14]. - The new - caliber liquidity gap index fluctuated downward to - 838.3 billion on Thursday and rebounded to - 488.7 billion on Friday, still lower than last Friday. The weekly excess reserve ratio dropped to 0.9%, a new low since mid - September [3][14][18]. 1.2 Next Week's Liquidity Outlook - The treasury bond payment scale next week is expected to be 315.9 billion yuan, and the local bond issuance scale in 12 regions is 285.1 billion yuan, with an actual payment scale of 230.5 billion yuan. The government bond net payment scale will rise from 36.8 billion yuan this week to 424.2 billion yuan, a new high since mid - July [20][22]. - The 7 - day reverse repurchase maturity scale next week will decrease from 2.07 trillion yuan to 495.8 billion yuan. The new stock issuance of Nante Technology on the Beijing Stock Exchange may bring some disturbances to the exchange liquidity price from Tuesday to Wednesday. The central bank is expected to increase liquidity injection to stabilize the market [3][38]. II. Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit - The 1Y Shibor rate dropped 1.7BP to 1.65% this week, and the secondary rate of 1 - year AAA - rated inter - bank certificates of deposit rose 0.2BP to 1.63% [3][39]. - The net financing scale of inter - bank certificates of deposit rose by 1.01 billion yuan to 163.8 billion yuan this week. The net financing scales of state - owned banks, joint - stock banks, city commercial banks, and rural commercial banks were 23.9 billion yuan, - 57.5 billion yuan, 170.6 billion yuan, and 33.1 billion yuan respectively. The issuance proportion of 1Y certificates of deposit decreased to 24%, and the 6M certificates of deposit had the highest issuance proportion at 38% [3][42]. - The issuance success rates of state - owned banks and joint - stock banks decreased this week, while those of city commercial banks and rural commercial banks increased. The issuance spread between city commercial banks and joint - stock banks for 1Y certificates of deposit widened [43]. - The supply - demand relative strength index of certificates of deposit first decreased and then increased this week. The 3M supply - demand index rose, while the other maturity varieties decreased slightly [54]. III. Bill Market - The bill rates rebounded significantly this week but remained at a low level overall. The 3M and 6M national bill rates rose 36BP and 41BP respectively compared with October 31, reaching 0.37% and 0.61% [59]. IV. Bond Trading Sentiment Tracking - The bond market adjusted slightly this week, and the credit spread narrowed slightly. The willingness of large banks to increase bond holdings weakened, while the willingness of trading - type institutions to increase bond holdings decreased significantly, and the willingness of allocation - type institutions to increase bond holdings increased [62].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" based on the performance of the refining sector and the overall market conditions [150]. Core Insights - The report highlights that low inventory levels of polyester filament support product prices and improve profitability [1]. - The Brent crude oil average price for the week ending November 7, 2025, was $64.23 per barrel, reflecting a decrease of 1.45% [2][3]. - Domestic and international refining project price differentials have shown positive trends, with domestic projects at 2327.79 CNY/ton (+0.78%) and international projects at 1361.85 CNY/ton (+4.33%) [2][3]. Summary by Sections Refining Sector - The report notes that international oil prices experienced fluctuations due to various geopolitical factors and economic data, with Brent and WTI prices at $63.63 and $59.75 per barrel, respectively [15]. - Domestic refined oil prices showed slight fluctuations, with diesel, gasoline, and aviation kerosene averaging 6682.71 CNY/ton, 7614.29 CNY/ton, and 5865.29 CNY/ton [15]. Chemical Sector - The chemical market is described as relatively weak, with no significant improvement in price differentials despite declining costs [2]. - Polypropylene prices and differentials have shown stability, with average prices for various types of polypropylene reported [56][71]. Polyester & Nylon Sector - The report indicates that polyester filament supply is supported by low inventory levels, leading to slight price increases [90]. - The average prices for polyester filament types are reported, with POY at 6507.14 CNY/ton, FDY at 6721.43 CNY/ton, and DTY at 7803.57 CNY/ton [108]. Market Performance of Major Refining Companies - The report tracks the stock performance of six major refining companies, with notable increases in stock prices for companies like Rongsheng Petrochemical (+5.99%) and Hengli Petrochemical (+8.02%) over the past week [137][140]. - The overall performance of the refining index has increased by 52.08% since September 4, 2017, outperforming the broader market indices [138].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Interest rate bonds adjusted slightly this week, with the yields of 1Y, 3Y, 5Y, 7Y, and 10Y China Development Bank bonds rising by 3BP, 3BP, 5BP, 3BP, and 2BP respectively compared to last week. Credit bonds showed differentiated performance, with the yields of 1Y and 10Y credit bonds rising slightly, while those of 3Y, 5Y, and 7Y falling. Credit spreads of all grades narrowed, with the 3 - 7Y spreads compressing most significantly [2][5]. - The spreads of urban investment bonds mostly declined by 4 - 5BP. The credit spreads of external - rated AAA, AA +, and AA platforms decreased by 4BP, 5BP, and 5BP respectively compared to last week. Provincial - level platform spreads decreased by 4BP, and municipal - and district - level platform spreads decreased by 5BP [2][9]. - The spreads of industrial bonds declined overall, but the spreads of mixed - ownership and private real - estate bonds continued to rise. The spreads of central and state - owned enterprise real - estate bonds decreased by 2 - 4BP, while those of mixed - ownership and private real - estate bonds increased by 42BP and 15BP respectively. The spreads of coal, steel, and chemical bonds of various grades also declined [2][17]. - The yields of secondary - tier and perpetual bonds (two - types of bonds, "two - eternal bonds") rose across the board, performing weaker than ordinary credit bonds. The adjustment amplitude of medium - and high - grade varieties was higher, especially the spreads of 3 - 5Y perpetual bonds widened [2][26]. - The excess spreads of 3Y industrial perpetual bonds rose, and the excess spreads of urban investment bonds continued to differentiate. The excess spreads of industrial AAA 3Y perpetual bonds rose by 4.03BP to 16.17BP, and those of industrial 5Y perpetual bonds remained flat at 12.39BP. The excess spreads of urban investment AAA 3Y perpetual bonds rose by 2.39BP to 7.39BP, while those of urban investment AAA 5Y perpetual bonds decreased by 4.16BP to 9.14BP [2][31]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Interest rate bonds adjusted, and credit bonds showed differentiated performance, with the 3 - 7Y credit spreads narrowing significantly - Interest rate bonds adjusted slightly this week. The yields of 1Y, 3Y, 5Y, 7Y, and 10Y China Development Bank bonds rose by 3BP, 3BP, 5BP, 3BP, and 2BP respectively compared to last week [2][5]. - Credit bonds of different maturities showed differentiated performance. The yields of 1Y and 10Y credit bonds rose slightly, while those of 3Y, 5Y, and 7Y fell. The spreads of all grades narrowed, with the 3 - 7Y spreads compressing most significantly. In terms of rating spreads and term spreads, there were also different changes [5]. 3.2 The spreads of urban investment bonds declined by 4 - 5BP - The credit spreads of external - rated AAA, AA +, and AA urban investment platforms decreased by 4BP, 5BP, and 5BP respectively compared to last week. The spreads of most platforms declined by 3 - 7BP, with some exceptions [9]. - In terms of administrative levels, provincial - level platform spreads decreased by 4BP, and municipal - and district - level platform spreads decreased by 5BP. Most provincial - level platform spreads declined by 2 - 6BP, and most municipal - level platform spreads declined by 4 - 7BP, while most district - level platform spreads declined by 3 - 6BP [9][14]. 3.3 The spreads of industrial bonds declined overall, but the spreads of mixed - ownership and private real - estate bonds continued to rise - The spreads of central and state - owned enterprise real - estate bonds decreased by 2 - 4BP, while those of mixed - ownership and private real - estate bonds increased by 42BP and 15BP respectively. For example, the spreads of Longhu decreased by 3BP, and those of Midea Real Estate decreased by 2BP, while those of CIFI rose by 36BP, and those of Vanke rose by 145BP [17]. - The spreads of coal bonds of all grades declined by 4 - 5BP, the spreads of steel bonds of all grades declined by 2 - 4BP, the spreads of AAA - grade chemical bonds declined by 4BP, and those of AA + - grade chemical bonds declined by 5BP. For example, the spreads of Shaanxi Coal Industry decreased by 2BP, those of HBIS decreased by 4BP, and those of Jinkong Coal Industry decreased by 6BP [17]. 3.4 The two - eternal bonds adjusted across the board, performing weaker than ordinary credit bonds - The yields of two - eternal bonds rose across the board, performing weaker than ordinary credit bonds. The adjustment amplitude of medium - and high - grade varieties was higher, especially the spreads of 3 - 5Y perpetual bonds widened [26]. - Specifically, for 1Y bonds, the yields of all - grade secondary - tier capital bonds rose by 2 - 3BP, and the spreads remained flat; the yields of all - grade perpetual bonds rose by 2BP, and the spreads decreased by 1BP. For 3Y bonds, the yields of all - grade secondary - tier capital bonds rose by 3 - 4BP, and the spreads rose by 0 - 1BP; the yields of all - grade perpetual bonds rose by 3 - 5BP, and the spreads rose by 0 - 2BP. For 5Y bonds, the yields of all - grade secondary - tier capital bonds rose by 3 - 4BP, and the spreads decreased by 1 - 2BP; the yields of AA + and above - grade perpetual bonds rose by 6 - 7BP, and the spreads rose by 1 - 2BP, while the yields of AA - grade perpetual bonds rose by 2BP, and the spreads decreased by 3BP [28]. 3.5 The excess spreads of 3Y industrial perpetual bonds rose, and the excess spreads of urban investment bonds continued to differentiate - The excess spreads of industrial AAA 3Y perpetual bonds rose by 4.03BP to 16.17BP, reaching the 46% quantile since 2015, while the excess spreads of industrial 5Y perpetual bonds remained flat at 12.39BP, reaching the 26.93% quantile since 2015 [31]. - The excess spreads of urban investment AAA 3Y perpetual bonds rose by 2.39BP to 7.39BP, reaching the 12.25% quantile, while the excess spreads of urban investment AAA 5Y perpetual bonds decreased by 4.16BP to 9.14BP, reaching the 8.51% quantile [31]. 3.6 Explanation of the compilation of the credit spread database - The overall market credit spreads, the spreads of commercial bank two - eternal bonds, and the credit spreads of urban investment/industrial perpetual bonds are calculated based on the data of ChinaBond medium - and short - term notes and ChinaBond perpetual bonds. The historical quantiles are since the beginning of 2015. The credit spreads related to urban investment and industrial bonds are compiled and statistically analyzed by the R & D Center of Cinda Securities, and the historical quantiles are also since the beginning of 2015 [37]. - The credit spreads of industrial and urban investment individual bonds are calculated as the individual bond's ChinaBond valuation (exercise) minus the yield to maturity of the same - term China Development Bank bonds (calculated by the linear interpolation method), and finally the credit spreads of the industry or regional urban investment are obtained by the arithmetic average method [37]. - The excess spreads of bank secondary - tier capital bonds/perpetual bonds are calculated as the credit spreads of bank secondary - tier capital bonds/perpetual bonds minus the credit spreads of the same - grade and same - term bank ordinary bonds. The excess spreads of industrial/urban investment - type perpetual bonds are calculated as the credit spreads of industrial/urban investment - type perpetual bonds minus the credit spreads of the same - grade and same - term medium - term notes [37]. - Industrial and urban investment bonds both select medium - term notes and public - offering corporate bonds as samples, and guarantee bonds and perpetual bonds are excluded. If the remaining maturity of an individual bond is less than 0.5 years or more than 5 years, it is excluded from the statistical sample. Industrial and urban investment bonds are based on external entity ratings, while commercial banks use ChinaBond implied debt - item ratings [37].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the environmental industry is "Positive" [2] Core Views - The environmental sector outperformed the broader market, with a weekly increase of 2.7% compared to a 1.1% rise in the Shanghai Composite Index [3][10] - The total market value of environmental stocks held by funds in Q3 2025 was 55.6 billion yuan, representing 0.18% of total fund assets, a decrease from 75 billion yuan in Q2 2025 [3][18] - Key stocks in the environmental sector include Shanghai Xiba, Huanlan Environment, and Weiming Environmental, with new entries in the top ten being Wanyi Technology and Ice Wheel Environment [3][18] - The government is implementing policies to enhance water resource management and ecological monitoring, which are expected to support the industry's growth [24][25] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The environmental sector showed a weekly increase of 2.7%, outperforming the market [3][10] - The top-performing sub-sectors included air pollution control, which rose by 13.94%, and resource recycling, which increased by 5.49% [3][13] Fund Holdings - In Q3 2025, the total market value of environmental stocks held by funds was 55.6 billion yuan, down from 75 billion yuan in Q2 2025 [3][18] - The top ten environmental stocks by market value include Shanghai Xiba (9.14 billion yuan), Huanlan Environment (8.10 billion yuan), and Weiming Environmental (6.30 billion yuan) [19] Industry Dynamics - Recent government initiatives include the "High-Quality Development Implementation Plan for Water-Saving Equipment (2025-2030)" and the "Ecological Environment Monitoring Regulations," effective from January 1, 2026 [24][25] - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment is focusing on enhancing ecological monitoring capabilities to support sustainable development [24][25] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies like Huanlan Environment, Xingrong Environment, and Hongcheng Environment due to their stable cash flows and growth potential [3][18]

- The report introduces the **Cinda-VIX volatility index**, which reflects investors' expectations of future volatility in the options market. The index is structured to capture different time horizons, providing insights into short-term and long-term volatility expectations. As of November 7, 2025, the 30-day Cinda-VIX values for major indices are: 18.55 for SSE 50, 19.17 for CSI 300, 26.21 for CSI 500, and 23.84 for CSI 1000[64][66][67] - The **Cinda-SKEW index** measures the skewness of implied volatility across different strike prices in the options market. It captures market sentiment regarding tail risks, with higher values indicating increased concern about potential market downturns. As of November 7, 2025, the SKEW values for major indices are: 103.82 for SSE 50, 108.08 for CSI 300, 101.38 for CSI 500, and 106.80 for CSI 1000[73][76][78] - The report evaluates **index futures basis adjustment**, where the annualized basis is calculated as: $ Annualized Basis = (Actual Basis + Expected Dividend Points) / Index Price × 360 / Remaining Days of Contract $ This adjustment accounts for the impact of dividends on futures prices during the contract's lifespan[20][21][28] - The **IC futures contract** (CSI 500) shows a downward trend in annualized basis, with a current basis of -9.74% as of November 7, 2025, lower than the median since 2022. The contract's trading volume and open interest have decreased compared to the previous week[21][22][27] - The **IF futures contract** (CSI 300) exhibits a current annualized basis of -2.96%, also below the median since 2022. Trading volume and open interest for IF contracts have similarly declined week-over-week[28][29][32] - The **IH futures contract** (SSE 50) has a current annualized basis of -0.24%, reflecting a decrease from the previous week. Open interest and trading volume for IH contracts have also reduced[33][34][37] - The **IM futures contract** (CSI 1000) shows a current annualized basis of -12.49%, marking a decline from the prior week. Open interest and trading volume for IM contracts have decreased as well[39][41][44] - The report evaluates **hedging strategies** for index futures, including continuous hedging and minimum basis strategies. Continuous hedging involves rolling over contracts near expiration, while minimum basis strategies select contracts with the smallest basis. Both strategies are tested across IC, IF, IH, and IM futures contracts[46][47][48] - **IC hedging strategy results**: - Annualized returns: -3.20% (monthly), -2.20% (quarterly), -1.69% (minimum basis) - Volatility: 3.84% (monthly), 4.76% (quarterly), 4.56% (minimum basis) - Maximum drawdown: -10.25% (monthly), -8.34% (quarterly), -7.97% (minimum basis) - Net value: 0.8990 (monthly), 0.9297 (quarterly), 0.9459 (minimum basis)[49][50][52] - **IF hedging strategy results**: - Annualized returns: 0.43% (monthly), 0.72% (quarterly), 1.18% (minimum basis) - Volatility: 2.93% (monthly), 3.28% (quarterly), 3.05% (minimum basis) - Maximum drawdown: -3.95% (monthly), -4.03% (quarterly), -4.06% (minimum basis) - Net value: 1.0141 (monthly), 1.0237 (quarterly), 1.0391 (minimum basis)[51][55][54] - **IH hedging strategy results**: - Annualized returns: 1.09% (monthly), 1.99% (quarterly), 1.72% (minimum basis) - Volatility: 3.01% (monthly), 3.41% (quarterly), 3.02% (minimum basis) - Maximum drawdown: -4.22% (monthly), -3.75% (quarterly), -3.91% (minimum basis) - Net value: 1.0361 (monthly), 1.0668 (quarterly), 1.0574 (minimum basis)[56][59][58] - **IM hedging strategy results**: - Annualized returns: -6.26% (monthly), -4.58% (quarterly), -4.20% (minimum basis) - Volatility: 4.75% (monthly), 5.78% (quarterly), 5.54% (minimum basis) - Maximum drawdown: -14.00% (monthly), -12.63% (quarterly), -11.11% (minimum basis) - Net value: 0.8282 (monthly), 0.8437 (quarterly), 0.8620 (minimum basis)[60][61][62]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the utility sector is "Positive" [2] Core Views - The report highlights that the domestic power sector is expected to see profit improvement and value reassessment following multiple rounds of supply-demand tensions. The ongoing market reforms are likely to lead to a gradual increase in electricity prices, with the promotion of spot and ancillary service markets [5] - The report also notes that the highest gasification service fee for LNG has been set at 0.20 yuan per cubic meter, effective from November 1, 2025 [5] Summary by Sections Market Performance - As of November 7, the utility sector rose by 2.4%, outperforming the broader market, with the electricity sector increasing by 2.54% and the gas sector by 1.23% [4][12] - Key sub-sectors within electricity showed varied performance, with thermal power up by 2.09% and hydropower by 2.00% [14] Electricity Industry Data Tracking - The price of thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port (Q5500) increased by 40 yuan to 808 yuan per ton as of November 7 [4][21] - Coal inventory at Qinhuangdao Port was 5.77 million tons, up by 20,000 tons week-on-week [28] - Daily coal consumption in inland provinces was 3.241 million tons, down by 94,000 tons from the previous week [30] Natural Gas Industry Data Tracking - The LNG ex-factory price index in Shanghai was 4,383 yuan per ton as of November 6, a 0.21% increase week-on-week [56] - The EU's natural gas supply for week 44 was 6.5 billion cubic meters, a year-on-year increase of 14.4% [64] - Domestic natural gas consumption in September was 33.19 billion cubic meters, a 2.0% decrease year-on-year [5] Key Industry News - The State Grid has achieved comprehensive coverage of the provincial electricity spot market, with several provinces entering trial operations ahead of schedule [5] - The report emphasizes the potential for significant performance improvement for power operators due to controlled costs and ongoing reforms [5] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading coal-fired power companies such as Guodian Power, Huaneng International, and Huadian International, as well as regional leaders in tight supply areas [5] - For natural gas, companies with low-cost long-term gas sources and receiving station assets are expected to benefit from market conditions [5]

Group 1: Export Growth Trends - In October, export growth fell to a negative increase of -1.1%, significantly below the market expectation of 3%[5] - The decline in export growth is attributed to short-term fluctuations and seasonal patterns, with a month-on-month decrease of approximately -7.1%[5][6] - The high base effect from last year's performance is impacting this year's figures, suggesting that without this drag, October's export growth might not have been negative[6] Group 2: Regional Performance - The most significant declines in exports were observed in the EU and Africa, while the US and ASEAN markets performed relatively well[11][12] - The Eurozone's manufacturing PMI improved to 50% in October, indicating stable manufacturing demand despite the weak export performance[11] - In emerging markets, the significant drop in exports to Africa is viewed as a temporary fluctuation, with South Africa's manufacturing PMI above 53% suggesting ongoing demand support[12] Group 3: Future Outlook - The negative export growth is expected to be temporary, with projections indicating that the decline may not persist into November and December[21] - The shift in China's export growth logic is moving from traditional markets (EU and US) to ASEAN and emerging markets, which are showing better performance[21] - Despite the challenges, the central tendency of export growth is likely to decline in the fourth quarter, necessitating increased policy efforts to stabilize foreign trade[22] Group 4: Risk Factors - Key risks include insufficient policy support for growth, lower-than-expected global economic conditions, and unexpected trade frictions[25]