Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [2] Core Insights - The automotive sector underperformed the market this week, with the A-share automotive sector declining by 1.26%, ranking 26th among A-share Shenwan first-level industries [3][9] - Key news includes the adjustment of the vehicle trade-in subsidy policy in Shanghai, the establishment of a smart robot subsidiary by Xingyu Co., and GAC Honda's plan to acquire a 50% stake in Dongfeng Honda Engine [3][23] - Tesla's third-quarter sales in China increased by 31% quarter-on-quarter, reaching a new high for the year, while BYD has entered the Argentine electric vehicle market [3][23][24] Market Performance - The A-share automotive sector's performance this week was a decline of 1.26%, with the SW passenger vehicle index down by 0.98% and the SW commercial vehicle index up by 0.79% [3][9] - Leading stocks in the passenger vehicle sector included Changan Automobile and GAC Group, while in the commercial vehicle sector, Jinlong Automobile and Dongfeng Motor led the gains [3][17][21] Industry News - The Figure 03 humanoid robot was officially launched, aiming for a production target of 100,000 units over four years [23] - Shanghai's new vehicle trade-in subsidy policy will be implemented from October 13, 2025, to December 31, 2025, with a focus on orderly consumer participation [23] - Tesla's new low-priced Model 3 and Model Y were launched in the U.S. market, priced approximately $5,000 lower than existing models [23] Recommendations - For passenger vehicles, recommended companies include BYD, Great Wall Motors, and Li Auto [3] - In the commercial vehicle sector, focus on China National Heavy Duty Truck and FAW Liberation [3] - In the auto parts sector, recommended companies include Tongyuan Safety and Fuyou Glass [3]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" based on the performance of the refining sector and the expected improvements in product margins [2][154]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant drop in raw material prices, leading to a slight improvement in refining product margins. The domestic refining project price spread increased by 21.59 CNY/ton (+0.91%) to 2404.19 CNY/ton, while the international spread decreased by 6.62 CNY/ton (-0.57%) to 1151.33 CNY/ton [2][3]. - Brent crude oil averaged 65.15 USD/barrel, reflecting a decrease of 1.91% week-on-week. The report discusses the impact of geopolitical events and OPEC's production plans on oil prices, indicating fluctuations in response to market conditions [2][15]. Summary by Sections Refining Sector - The report notes that Iraq is set to resume oil exports from the Kurdistan region, while ongoing conflicts in Ukraine continue to affect energy infrastructure. International oil prices have shown volatility, with Brent and WTI prices at 62.73 USD/barrel and 58.90 USD/barrel, respectively, down by 1.80 USD and 1.98 USD from the previous week [2][15]. - Domestic refined oil prices have generally decreased, with diesel, gasoline, and aviation fuel averaging 6848.00 CNY/ton, 7932.29 CNY/ton, and 5947.21 CNY/ton, respectively [15]. Chemical Sector - The report indicates that the price decline of petrochemical products has not matched the cost reductions, leading to an expansion in price spreads. Polyethylene prices have shown slight fluctuations, while EVA prices have slightly decreased due to reduced downstream demand [2][53]. - The report also highlights that the price of pure benzene has decreased, with a stable price spread, while styrene prices have dropped, leading to a slight narrowing of the price spread [2][70]. Polyester & Nylon Sector - Polyester raw material prices have slightly decreased, with improvements in profit margins for filament products. The report notes that the market supply has slightly increased due to new installations and the resumption of previously halted operations [2][112]. - The average prices for polyester filament products are reported as POY at 6600.00 CNY/ton, FDY at 6750.00 CNY/ton, and DTY at 7800.00 CNY/ton, with varying profit margins across these products [2][134]. Market Performance of Major Refining Companies - The report tracks the stock performance of six major refining companies, with notable weekly increases for companies like Rongsheng Petrochemical (+4.97%) and Hengli Petrochemical (+2.86%). Over the past month, Rongsheng Petrochemical has also shown a positive trend with a 3.16% increase [2][141].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel industry is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The steel sector has shown resilience with a weekly increase of 3.67%, outperforming the broader market, while specific segments like special steel and long products also saw gains [10][12] - The report highlights a potential restructuring of steel prices due to government efforts to curb disorderly competition and excess capacity, which may lead to improved profitability for steel companies [3][4] - Despite current supply-demand imbalances and declining profits, the implementation of "stabilization growth" policies is expected to support steel demand, particularly in real estate and infrastructure sectors [3][4] Supply Situation - As of October 10, the capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces among sampled steel companies is 90.6%, a slight decrease of 0.10 percentage points week-on-week [26] - The production of five major steel products reached 7.535 million tons, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 2.44 million tons [26] - Daily average pig iron production was 2.4154 million tons, down 0.27 million tons week-on-week but up 135,200 tons year-on-year [26] Demand Situation - The consumption of five major steel products was 7.514 million tons as of October 10, down 153,390 tons week-on-week, marking a 16.95% decrease [36] - The transaction volume of construction steel among mainstream traders was 91,000 tons as of October 17, down 1.78 tons week-on-week [36] Inventory Situation - Social inventory of five major steel products increased to 11.282 million tons as of October 10, up 69,230 tons week-on-week, a 6.54% increase [44] - Factory inventory for the same products reached 4.726 million tons, up 58,630 tons week-on-week, a 14.16% increase [44] Steel Prices & Profits - The comprehensive index for ordinary steel was 3,460.3 yuan/ton as of October 11, down 20.27 yuan/ton week-on-week, a 0.58% decrease [50] - The profit for rebar produced in blast furnaces was -22 yuan/ton, a significant drop of 52 yuan/ton week-on-week [58] - The profit for electric arc furnace-produced construction steel was -152 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan/ton week-on-week [58] Raw Material Situation - The spot price index for Australian iron ore (62% Fe) was 793 yuan/ton as of October 11, up 6.0 yuan/ton week-on-week [72] - The price for primary metallurgical coke was 1,770 yuan/ton, an increase of 55.0 yuan/ton week-on-week [72]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the environmental sector [2] Core Viewpoints - The green methanol industry is expected to experience significant growth opportunities driven by both policy and market factors, particularly in the context of global decarbonization efforts [3][17][26] - The report highlights that the global methanol production capacity is projected to reach 200 million tons per year by 2028, with green methanol potentially accounting for 10% of this capacity [17][21] - The report emphasizes the advantages of green methanol as a marine fuel alternative, including low emissions of sulfur and nitrogen oxides, ease of storage and transportation, and low environmental hazards [26][30] Summary by Sections Market Performance - As of October 10, the environmental sector index rose by 1.49%, outperforming the broader market, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 0.37% to 3897.03 [3][10] - The water treatment sector increased by 1.19%, while the waste incineration sector saw a rise of 4.47% [11][10] Industry Dynamics - The report notes that the steel, cement, and aluminum industries have been included in the national carbon emissions trading market management, with a draft proposal for quota allocation being publicly solicited [32][33] - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment is revising national ecological standards for the protection of drinking water sources [33] Special Topic: Green Methanol Development Opportunities - The EU's carbon intensity regulation, effective January 1, 2025, imposes fines for exceeding emission limits, aiming for an 80% reduction in greenhouse gas intensity by 2050 compared to 2020 levels [24][26] - The International Maritime Organization (IMO) is set to implement a net-zero emissions framework by 2025, which will impose penalties for exceeding carbon intensity standards [23][26] - The report outlines three main production routes for green methanol: biomass-to-methanol, biomass gasification, and electrolysis-based methanol production, with the latter expected to become the mainstream method as technology advances [21][22] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the "14th Five-Year Plan" will continue to emphasize environmental quality and industrial green development, maintaining high demand for energy conservation and resource recycling [47] - Key recommended companies include: Hanlan Environment, Xingrong Environment, and Hongcheng Environment, with additional attention to Wangneng Environment, Junxin Co., and others [47][48]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the importance of Q3 performance, indicating a potential valuation shift in the new consumption sector [2] - The report highlights various sectors including paper manufacturing, exports, new tobacco, smart glasses, home furnishings, gold and jewelry, two-wheelers, pets, cross-border e-commerce, IP retail, and maternal and child products, each with specific insights and recommendations [2][3][4][5] Summary by Relevant Sections Paper Manufacturing - Overseas pulp mills continue to suspend operations, maintaining strong pulp prices. The report suggests monitoring companies like Sun Paper, Xianhe Co., and Nine Dragons Paper for potential recovery in cultural paper prices [2][3] Exports - The report notes renewed tariff disputes and emphasizes the importance of export leaders with sufficient overseas capacity. Companies like Craft Home and Yongyi Holdings are highlighted for their global layout [2][3] New Tobacco - HILO's entry into the European market is noted, with expectations for significant growth in Italy. The report suggests monitoring companies like Smoore International and China Tobacco Hong Kong [2][3] Smart Glasses - Meta's new product is experiencing high demand, indicating a potential breakthrough for the smart glasses industry. Companies like KANAT and Mingyue Optical are recommended for investment [2][3] Home Furnishings - The report indicates a weakening market in October, with expectations for further deterioration in the housing market. Companies like Gujia and Midea are suggested for their stable cash flow [2][3] Gold and Jewelry - The report notes strong sales during the National Day holiday, with brands like Chow Tai Fook expected to raise prices. Companies like Lao Pu Gold and Chow Sang Sang are highlighted for their growth potential [2][3] Two-Wheelers - Taotao Industry is projected to see significant profit growth, driven by electric low-speed vehicles. Companies like Yadea and Aima Technology are recommended for their market share potential [2][3] Pets - The report highlights strong sales performance during the National Day holiday, with brands like Desire and Frigat showing significant growth. Companies like Petty and Zhongchong are suggested for their competitive advantages [2][3] Cross-Border E-commerce - The report discusses the Amazon fall promotion and the increasing dominance of top sellers. Companies like Anker Innovations and Jihong Holdings are recommended for their global strategies [2][3] IP Retail - MINISO's new store format and Pop Mart's successful Halloween blind box sales are noted as trends in the retail sector. Both companies are suggested for their innovative approaches [2][3] Maternal and Child Products - The report emphasizes the deepening channel transformation in the maternal and child industry, with companies like Kidswant and Aiyingshi leading the way [2][3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the utilities industry is "Optimistic" [2] Core Viewpoints of the Report - After multiple rounds of power supply - demand contradictions in China, the power sector is expected to see profit improvement and value re - evaluation. With the advancement of power market reform, the electricity price trend is likely to rise slightly, and the cost of coal - fired power enterprises is relatively controllable. The performance of power operators is expected to improve significantly. For the natural gas sector, with the decline of upstream gas prices and the recovery of domestic consumption, the city - gas business is expected to achieve stable gross margins and high growth in gas sales volume [5]. Summary by Directory 1. This Week's Market Performance - As of October 10, the utilities sector rose 3.5%, outperforming the market. The power sector rose 3.25%, and the gas sector rose 5.50%. Among sub - industries, the thermal power generation sector rose 6.13%, the hydropower generation sector rose 2.28%, etc. [12][13] - For power companies, the top three gainers were Shanghai Electric Power (18.71%), Wanneng Power (10.56%), and Guiguan Power (7.00%); the bottom three were Jidian Co., Ltd. (0.64%), Zhongmin Energy (1.55%), and Three Gorges Energy (1.65%). For gas companies, the top three gainers were Dazhong Public Utilities (21.12%), Guoxin Energy (6.87%), and Zhongtai Co., Ltd. (5.27%); the bottom three were Furan Energy (-1.93%), Jiufeng Energy (0.84%), and Lantian Gas (2.18%) [15] 2. Power Industry Data Tracking 2.1 Power Coal Prices - The annual long - term agreement price of Qinhuangdao Port's power coal (Q5500) in October was 676 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton month - on - month. The market price of Shanxi - produced power coal (Q5500) at Qinhuangdao Port was 703 yuan/ton as of October 10, remaining flat week - on - week. The prices of power coal in some production areas decreased week - on - week [21] - Overseas power coal prices: As of October 9, the FOB spot price of Newcastle NEWC5500 kcal power coal was 71.2 dollars/ton, up 0.70 dollars/ton week - on - week. As of October 10, the ex - warehouse price of Indonesian coal (Q5500) at Guangzhou Port was 732.82 yuan/ton, down 0.95 yuan/ton week - on - week [23] 2.2 Power Coal Inventory and Power Plant Daily Consumption - As of October 10, the coal inventory at Qinhuangdao Port was 6.41 million tons, up 650,000 tons week - on - week. As of October 9, the coal inventory of 17 inland provinces was 94.159 million tons, up 1.712 million tons week - on - week, and the daily consumption was 3.419 million tons, up 692,000 tons/day week - on - week. The coal inventory of 8 coastal provinces was 33.509 million tons, down 400,000 tons week - on - week, and the daily consumption was 2.067 million tons, up 177,000 tons/day week - on - week [28][30] 2.3 Hydropower Inflow - As of October 11, the outflow of the Three Gorges Reservoir was 22,100 cubic meters/second, up 206.09% year - on - year and down 7.14% week - on - week [42] 2.4 Key Power Market Transaction Electricity Prices - In the Guangdong power market, as of September 20, the weekly average price of the day - ahead spot market was 284.90 yuan/MWh, down 3.80% week - on - week and 15.5% year - on - year; the weekly average price of the real - time spot market was 280.40 yuan/MWh, down 12.81% week - on - week and 15.2% year - on - year. Similar data for the Shanxi and Shandong power markets are also provided [49][56][57] 3. Natural Gas Industry Data Tracking 3.1 Domestic and Overseas Natural Gas Prices - As of October 10, the national index of LNG ex - factory prices at the Shanghai Oil and Gas Trading Center was 4,031 yuan/ton, down 20.90% year - on - year and up 0.37% month - on - month. The European TTF spot price was 11.32 dollars/million British thermal units, down 10.8% year - on - year and 1.6% week - on - week; the US HH spot price was 3.03 dollars/million British thermal units, up 31.2% year - on - year and down 8.7% week - on - week; the Chinese DES spot price was 10.98 dollars/million British thermal units, down 15.1% year - on - year and up 5.2% week - on - week [55][60] 3.2 EU Natural Gas Supply, Demand, and Inventory - In the 39th week of 2025, the EU's natural gas supply was 5.58 billion cubic meters, up 14.3% year - on - year and 2.5% week - on - week. The inventory was 90.865 billion cubic meters, down 13.18% year - on - year and up 1.15% week - on - week. The estimated consumption was 4.55 billion cubic meters, up 12.5% week - on - week and 5.5% year - on - year [63][72][74] 3.3 Domestic Natural Gas Supply and Demand - In August 2025, the apparent domestic natural gas consumption was 36.41 billion cubic meters, up 2.5% year - on - year. The domestic natural gas production was 21.24 billion cubic meters, up 6.1% year - on - year. The LNG import volume was 6.35 million tons, down 2.9% year - on - year and up 16.7% month - on - month [77][78] 4. This Week's Industry News 4.1 Power Industry News - In Yunnan, the clearing mechanism electricity price for photovoltaic projects was 0.33 yuan/kWh, and for wind power projects was 0.332 yuan/kWh. In August 2025, the national wind power utilization rate was 96.6%, and the photovoltaic power utilization rate was 96.4% [86] 4.2 Natural Gas Industry News - In August 2025, the national apparent natural gas consumption was 36.41 billion cubic meters, up 1.8% year - on - year. From January to August, it was 284.56 billion cubic meters, down 0.1% year - on - year [90] 5. This Week's Important Announcements - Guiguan Power's cumulative power generation in the first three quarters of 2025 was 31.848 billion kWh, up 14.89% year - on - year. Jiufeng Energy plans to invest in the second - phase project of the Xinjiang Qinghua coal - to - natural - gas demonstration project, with an estimated annual profit of 1.47746 billion yuan and an investment return rate of 11.74% [87][88] 6. Investment Recommendations and Valuation Tables 6.1 Investment Recommendations - For the power sector, it is recommended to focus on national coal - fired power leaders, regional leaders in areas with tight power supply, hydropower operators, coal - fired power equipment manufacturers, and flexibility retrofit technology companies. For the natural gas sector, it is recommended to focus on companies with low - cost long - term agreement gas sources and receiving terminal assets [5][91] 6.2 Valuation Tables - The report provides the valuation tables of major companies in the utilities industry, including data such as net profit attributable to the parent company, EPS, PE, and closing prices from 2024 to 2027 for various companies [92]

- The report does not contain any specific quantitative models or factors for analysis. It primarily focuses on market trends, fund flows, and sector allocations without detailing quantitative methodologies or factor construction. [2][3][4]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Luyuan Group Holdings (2451.HK) based on its strong performance and growth potential in the E-Bike market [1]. Core Insights - Luyuan Group is advancing its high-end E-Bike product line with the recent launch of the G02-Sport, priced from CNY 15,999, featuring advanced technology such as 8 ms smart shifting and a lightweight carbon fiber frame [2]. - The company's electric two-wheeler business is experiencing steady growth, with revenue from electric bicycles, scooters, batteries, and components reaching CNY 19.97 billion, CNY 3.54 billion, CNY 5.97 billion, and CNY 1.07 billion respectively in H1 2025, reflecting year-on-year growth of 29.2%, 2.6%, 16.5%, and 2.8% [3]. - Luyuan Group has established a robust offline distribution network covering 336 cities in mainland China, with over 14,000 retail stores, and has successfully integrated online and offline sales channels [3]. - The company is focusing on complementary business lines, including battery swapping services, rental services tailored for urban transport, and aftermarket services to enhance its ecosystem strategy [4]. Financial Performance - The gross margin for H1 2025 was reported at 13.6%, an increase of 1.6 percentage points year-on-year [4]. - The company expects net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be CNY 200 million, CNY 256 million, and CNY 324 million respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 20.2X, 15.8X, and 12.5X [5]. - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are CNY 6.529 billion, CNY 7.806 billion, and CNY 9 billion, indicating growth rates of 29%, 20%, and 15% respectively [8].

- The report introduces the **Cinda-VIX volatility index**, which reflects investors' expectations of future volatility in the options market. The index is calculated based on methodologies adapted from international practices and tailored to China's options market. It includes a term structure to show volatility expectations over different time horizons. As of October 10, 2025, the 30-day Cinda-VIX values for major indices are: 20.50 for SSE 50, 20.30 for CSI 300, 26.71 for CSI 500, and 24.66 for CSI 1000[62][64][65] - The **Cinda-SKEW index** measures the skewness of implied volatility across different strike prices of options. It captures market expectations of potential tail risks, with higher values indicating increased concerns about significant downside risks. As of October 10, 2025, the SKEW values for major indices are: 99.06 for SSE 50, 105.08 for CSI 300, 101.31 for CSI 500, and 104.27 for CSI 1000[69][70][77] - The report evaluates **basis-adjusted futures hedging strategies** for major indices (CSI 500, CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 1000). The strategies include continuous monthly hedging, continuous quarterly hedging, and minimum basis strategies. The strategies are tested over the period from July 22, 2022, to October 10, 2025, with specific parameters such as holding periods, rebalancing rules, and capital allocation between spot and futures positions[44][45][46] - **Performance of IC hedging strategies** (CSI 500 futures): The annualized returns are -3.09% for monthly continuous hedging, -2.20% for quarterly continuous hedging, and -1.49% for minimum basis strategy, compared to 5.22% for the index. Volatility ranges from 3.88% to 4.79%, and maximum drawdowns range from -7.97% to -9.77%. Net values are 0.9045, 0.9314, and 0.9532, respectively[47][48] - **Performance of IF hedging strategies** (CSI 300 futures): The annualized returns are 0.45% for monthly continuous hedging, 0.66% for quarterly continuous hedging, and 1.22% for minimum basis strategy, compared to 2.72% for the index. Volatility ranges from 2.96% to 3.31%, and maximum drawdowns range from -3.95% to -4.06%. Net values are 1.0145, 1.0213, and 1.0395, respectively[49][53] - **Performance of IH hedging strategies** (SSE 50 futures): The annualized returns are 1.07% for monthly continuous hedging, 1.95% for quarterly continuous hedging, and 1.70% for minimum basis strategy, compared to 1.37% for the index. Volatility ranges from 3.04% to 3.45%, and maximum drawdowns range from -3.75% to -4.22%. Net values are 1.0344, 1.0637, and 1.0553, respectively[54][57] - **Performance of IM hedging strategies** (CSI 1000 futures): The annualized returns are -6.21% for monthly continuous hedging, -4.53% for quarterly continuous hedging, and -4.10% for minimum basis strategy, compared to 1.16% for the index. Volatility ranges from 4.77% to 5.80%, and maximum drawdowns range from -11.11% to -14.00%. Net values are 0.8294, 0.8511, and 0.8658, respectively[58][59]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the tourism industry [2] Core Insights - During the 2025 National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holiday, domestic tourism saw an increase in volume but a decrease in prices, with 888 million domestic trips taken, a 1.6% increase year-on-year, and a recovery to 99.4% of the 2019 level [3][7] - Domestic tourism revenue reached 809 billion yuan, averaging 101.1 billion yuan per day, marking a 1.0% increase year-on-year and a recovery to 109.0% of the 2019 level [3][7] - Per capita consumption was 911 yuan, with a daily average of 114 yuan, reflecting a 13.0% decline year-on-year, but recovering to 95.9% of the 2019 level [3][7] - Compared to the 2025 May Day and Spring Festival holidays, the growth rate of domestic tourism during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival slowed down, and per capita consumption growth turned negative [3][7] Summary by Sections Domestic Tourism - The 2025 National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holiday saw 888 million domestic trips, with a daily average of 111 million, a 1.6% increase from the previous year [7] - Domestic tourism revenue was 809 billion yuan, with a daily average of 101.1 billion yuan, a 1.0% increase year-on-year [7] - Per capita consumption decreased by 13.0% year-on-year to 911 yuan [7] Scenic Spots - Daily visitor growth at scenic spots ranged from single to double digits, with Emei Mountain and Phoenix Ancient City showing notable increases of 19.7% and 18.8% respectively [18][20] Outbound Tourism - Outbound tourism growth outpaced domestic tourism, with 16.34 million people entering or leaving the country during the holiday, a 11.5% year-on-year increase [22] Performing Arts - Cultural and artistic service sales increased by 18.6% during the holiday, with significant growth in performance services [28] Consumer Spending - Consumer spending showed low single-digit growth, with service consumption outperforming goods consumption, as retail and catering sales increased by 2.7% year-on-year [30]