Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The price of industrial silicon is expected to maintain a range-bound oscillation, with the upside potential depending on the recovery of downstream demand and inventory depletion progress, and the downside limited by cost support and production cut expectations [3]. - The price of polysilicon is expected to oscillate between 54,000 - 60,000 yuan/ton, awaiting further clarity on fundamentals. Short - term attention should be paid to new silicon wafer quotes and January production plans; long - term attention should be on the implementation of the purchase and storage policy and inventory depletion progress [6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On December 29, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price was weak. The main contract 2605 opened at 8,850 yuan/ton and closed at 8,715 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton (-0.68%) from the previous settlement. The position of the main contract 2605 at the close was 221,065 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts on December 28, 2025, was 9,907 lots, an increase of 480 lots from the previous day [1]. - The spot price of industrial silicon was basically stable. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9,200 - 9,300 yuan/ton; 421 silicon was 9,500 - 9,800 yuan/ton. The price of Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8,600 - 8,800 yuan/ton, and 99 - silicon was 8,600 - 8,800 yuan/ton. Silicon prices in various regions were flat, and the price of 97 - silicon was stable [1]. - As of December 25, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions was 555,000 tons, an increase of 2,000 tons from the previous week [1]. Consumption End - The quoted price of silicone DMC was 13,500 - 13,700 yuan/ton. The weekly production of polysilicon was basically stable, with the planned production in December around 114,000 tons, slightly decreasing from November, and the demand for industrial silicon changed little. The weekly production schedule of organic silicon fluctuated slightly compared to the previous week, with a possible reduction in industrial silicon consumption of about 5,000 tons in December. The operating rate of aluminum - silicon alloy enterprises remained stable, and the regenerative aluminum enterprises in Chongqing that cut production due to air pollution last week maintained the production - cut state. The downstream demand for aluminum alloy showed marginal weakness, and the subsequent operating rate was expected to be stable with a weakening trend [2]. Strategy - Spot prices are basically stable. After production cuts in the southwest, the supply - demand pattern may improve, but the inventory accumulation pattern remains. Short - term range - bound operation is recommended for single - side trading, and there are no recommendations for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [3]. Polysilicon Market Analysis - On December 29, 2025, the main contract 2605 of polysilicon futures oscillated downward, opening at 59,000 yuan/ton and closing at 56,500 yuan/ton, a change of - 4.84% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract was 95,631 lots (119,162 lots the previous day), and the trading volume was 69,428 lots [3]. - The spot price of polysilicon weakened slightly. The price of N - type material was 49.80 - 55.00 yuan/kg, and n - type granular silicon was 49.00 - 51.00 yuan/kg. Polysilicon manufacturers' inventory and silicon wafer inventory increased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 303,000 tons, a 3.40% increase; silicon wafer inventory was 21.69 GW, a 0.88% increase. The weekly polysilicon production was 25,300 tons, a 1.20% increase; silicon wafer production was 10.33 GW, a 3.19% decrease [3]. Silicon Wafer, Battery Cell, and Component Prices - Silicon wafer: The price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafer was 1.25 yuan/piece, N - type 210mm was 1.55 yuan/piece, and N - type 210R silicon wafer was 1.35 yuan/piece [4]. - Battery cell: The price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cell was 0.27 yuan/W; PERC210 battery cell was about 0.28 yuan/W; TopconM10 battery cell was about 0.37 yuan/W; Topcon G12 battery cell was 0.37 yuan/W; Topcon210RN battery cell was 0.37 yuan/W; HJT210 half - cell battery was 0.37 yuan/W [4][5]. - Component: The mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm was 0.67 - 0.74 yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 yuan/W, N - type 182mm was 0.66 - 0.68 yuan/W, and N - type 210mm was 0.67 - 0.69 yuan/W [5]. Strategy - The polysilicon price is expected to oscillate between 54,000 - 60,000 yuan/ton. Short - term range - bound operation is recommended for single - side trading, and there are no recommendations for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on industry investment rating 2. Report Core View - The price of Shanghai nickel futures has recently been affected by Indonesian policies and the overall trends of non - ferrous and precious metals. With high inventory and the terminal in the consumption off - season, it is expected to remain range - bound in the short term. Stainless steel prices are expected to maintain a volatile trend, closely following the price of Shanghai nickel [1][3][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - On December 29, 2025, the main contract 2601 of Shanghai nickel opened at 126,700 yuan/ton and closed at 125,710 yuan/ton, a change of - 0.86% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 785,240 (+168,241) lots, and the open interest was 131,413 (-5,234) lots. The main contract showed a "rush up and fall back + wide - range shock" trend, with an intraday amplitude of 4.4%. In the afternoon, it was driven by a sharp correction in precious metals and quickly declined [1] - The nickel ore market was relatively calm, with prices remaining stable. Affected by the rainy season in the Philippines, resources were limited. Mines had a bullish expectation. There was a certain price difference in the market. Shipping efficiency was delayed due to increased rainfall. The downstream nickel - iron market improved, and the bargaining price moved up. Iron mills were eager to stock up in advance, and the mentality of suppressing raw material nickel ore prices might slow down. In Indonesia, the domestic trade benchmark price in January 2026 (Phase II) is expected to rise by 0.05 - 0.08 US dollars/wet ton, and the current mainstream premium is +25, with the premium range mostly between +25 - 26 [1] - The spot price of Jinchuan Group in the Shanghai market was 135,400 yuan/ton, up 2,200 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Spot trading was average. Traders were expected to start purchasing after New Year's Day. The spot premiums of refined nickel of each brand were mostly stable. The premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by 100 yuan/ton to 7,200 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel changed by 0 yuan/ton to 400 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warrant volume was 38,510 (983) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 255,696 (1,092) tons [2] Strategy - The price of Shanghai nickel is easily affected by Indonesian policies and the overall trends of non - ferrous and precious metals. With high inventory and the terminal in the consumption off - season, it is expected to remain range - bound in the short term. Consider high - selling and low - buying in the range of 123,000 - 130,000 yuan. For trading strategies, focus on range operations for single - side trading, and there are no suggestions for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and option trading [3] Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis - On December 29, 2025, the main contract 2602 of stainless steel opened at 12,955 yuan/ton and closed at 12,910 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 169,875 (+40,115) lots, and the open interest was 84,501 (-4,171) lots. The main contract continued to follow the trend of Shanghai nickel, showing a "rush up and fall back + wide - range shock" trend. However, due to weaker fundamentals, the overall trend was weaker than that of Shanghai nickel [3] - The upward momentum of the futures market has slowed down. Although the spot price has risen compared with the previous period, in the context of the year - end off - season, downstream demand remained weak, and there was a lack of further stimulating factors in the news. The spot price remained stable overall. Future attention should be paid to the production reduction process of stainless steel plants and the winter stocking situation of downstream enterprises. The stainless steel price in the Wuxi market was 13,075 (+0) yuan/ton, and that in the Foshan market was 13,075 (+0) yuan/ton. The premium of 304/2B was 145 - 395 yuan/ton. According to SMM data, the ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by 6.50 yuan/nickel point to 910.5 yuan/nickel point [3][4] Strategy - Some macro - level positive factors have been realized, and inventory has been declining for four consecutive weeks. However, downstream demand is weak in the off - season. Stainless steel prices are expected to maintain a volatile trend, closely following the price of Shanghai nickel. For trading strategies, take a neutral stance on single - side trading, and there are no suggestions for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and option trading [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - PX/PTA/PF/PR are rated neutral [4] Core Viewpoints - Cost side: There is more consensus on the details of the Russia-Ukraine negotiations, oil prices have retreated again, and geopolitical news is fluctuating. In Q1 next year, there is still significant downward pressure on oil prices [1] - PX: PXN reached $377/ton last last trading day (a $16.00/ton increase from the previous period). PX plants at home and abroad are operating stably. With the current abundant MX supply, PX production can be effectively maintained even if some plants have fluctuations in reformer operations. Recently, PXN has risen significantly to a seasonal high. With the improvement in profitability, there are more restart plans overseas, and more imports are expected due to arbitrage between domestic and foreign markets. There are many PX maintenance plans in Q2 next year, and the long - term outlook is still positive. However, the blending - into - gasoline market shows no obvious improvement, and the risks of increasing supply and declining polyester demand are gradually emerging [1] - TA: The spot basis of the TA main contract is -63 yuan/ton (a 2 yuan/ton increase from the previous period), the PTA spot processing fee is 346 yuan/ton (a 32 yuan/ton increase from the previous period), and the processing fee of the main contract on the futures market is 336 yuan/ton (a 13 yuan/ton increase from the previous period). There are many PTA maintenance plans in the near term. Although the polyester load has decreased, the overall production cut is less than expected. The PTA balance sheet shows inventory reduction in December, and the inventory build - up pressure in January is acceptable. In the long - term, as the cycle of concentrated capacity expansion ends, PTA processing fees are expected to gradually improve [2] - Demand: The polyester operating rate is 90.4% (a 0.7% decrease from the previous period), and the weaving load continues to decline. Since the end of November, domestic orders have weakened rapidly, and坯布 inventory has started to accumulate rapidly. Although there are some samples for spring - summer orders next year or foreign trade orders, there are no large - scale orders yet. Due to the rise in raw material prices, there was restocking this week, and filament inventory has dropped to a low level [3] - Strategy: For single - side trading, be cautious about the risk of capital reduction and price retreat. Pay attention to the capital flow and the change in downstream polyester load for PX; for TA, pay attention to the possibility of plant restart with the improvement of processing fees; for PF, the processing fee is under pressure; for PR, the short - term polyester bottle - chip processing fee is expected to fluctuate within a range [4] Summary by Directory Price and Basis - Figures include TA main contract, basis, and inter - period spread trends; PX main contract trends, basis, and inter - period spread; PTA East China spot basis; and short - fiber 1.56D*38mm semi - bright natural white basis [9][10][12] Upstream Profit and Spread - Figures cover PX processing fee PXN, PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [18][23] International Spread and Import - Export Profit - Figures involve toluene US - Asia spread, toluene South Korean FOB - Japanese naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit [26][28] Upstream PX and PTA Operation - Figures show China's PTA load, South Korea's PTA load, Taiwan's PTA load, China's PX load, and Asia's PX load [29][32][36] Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Figures include PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse receipt inventory, PX warehouse receipt inventory, and PF warehouse receipt inventory [38][40][41] Downstream Polyester Load - Figures cover filament sales volume, short - fiber sales volume, polyester load, direct - spun filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle - chip load, filament DTY factory inventory days, filament FDY factory inventory days, filament POY factory inventory days, Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom operating rate, Jiangsu and Zhejiang texturing machine operating rate, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang dyeing operating rate [49][51][58] PF Detailed Data - Figures include polyester staple fiber load, polyester staple fiber factory equity inventory days, 1.4D physical inventory, 1.4D equity inventory, recycled cotton - type staple fiber load, raw - recycled spread, pure polyester yarn operating rate, pure polyester yarn production profit, polyester - cotton yarn operating rate, and polyester - cotton yarn processing fee [70][74][79] PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Figures cover polyester bottle - chip load, bottle - chip factory bottle - chip inventory days, bottle - chip spot processing fee, bottle - chip export processing fee, bottle - chip export profit, East China water bottle - chip - recycled 3A - grade white bottle - chip spread, bottle - chip next - month spread, and bottle - chip next - next - month spread [93][98][99]

Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - Overseas refined oil crack spreads remain weak, and the blending logic has limited support for aromatics. The price difference between US and South Korea for pure benzene may gradually peak [3] - The arrival of pure benzene in China has increased, and the downstream提货 is weaker during the off - season. The port inventory continues to accumulate rapidly to a high level [3] - The start - up rates of styrene and aniline have slightly increased from the bottom, the start - up of CPL remains at a low level compared to the same period, while the start - up rates of phenol and adipic acid are acceptable. With the low processing fee of pure benzene, the domestic start - up rate of pure benzene is still low [3] - The styrene port inventory changed little at the beginning of the week, and the original inventory accumulation cycle was postponed. On one hand, it was due to the short - term maintenance of Bohua, and on the other hand, it was boosted by the previous styrene export orders. The downstream提货 during the off - season is still average. The downstream start - up rate has a slight rebound. The start - up rate of EPS has a slight increase during the off - season, the start - up of PS has increased again after the inventory decline, and the start - up of ABS continues to be at a low level due to continuous inventory pressure [3] 3. Summary by Directory I. Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure, Inter - Period Spreads - Figures 1 - 4 show the basis and inter - period spreads of pure benzene, including the relationship between the main pure benzene basis and the main pure benzene futures contract price, the main pure benzene contract basis, the pure benzene spot - M2 paper cargo spread, and the pure benzene continuous first contract - continuous third contract spread [8][13] - Figures 5 - 7 show the basis and inter - period spreads of styrene, including the relationship between the main styrene basis and the main styrene contract, the EB main contract basis, and the styrene continuous first contract - continuous third contract spread [14][15] II. Pure Benzene and Styrene Production Profits, Domestic - Foreign Spreads - Figures 8 - 9 show the processing fees of naphtha and the price difference between pure benzene FOB South Korea and naphtha CFR Japan [23] - Figures 10 - 17 show the production profits of styrene non - integrated plants and the price differences between different regions of pure benzene and styrene, including the price differences between pure benzene FOB US Gulf - FOB South Korea, FOB US Gulf - CFR China, FOB Rotterdam - CFR China, and similar price differences for styrene, as well as the import profits of pure benzene and styrene [25][30][34][40] III. Pure Benzene and Styrene Inventory, Start - up Rates - Figures 18 - 19 show the inventory in East China ports and the start - up rate of pure benzene [42] - Figures 20 - 23 show the inventory (including port, commercial, and factory inventory) and the start - up rate of styrene in East China [45][47] IV. Styrene Downstream Start - up and Production Profits - Figures 24 - 29 show the start - up rates and production profits of EPS, PS, and ABS, which are downstream products of styrene [55][57][58] V. Pure Benzene Downstream Start - up and Production Profits - Figures 30 - 37 show the start - up rates and production profits of pure benzene downstream products such as caprolactam, phenol - ketone, aniline, and adipic acid [65][67][86] - Figures 38 - 44 show the production profits of other related downstream products such as PA6, nylon filament, bisphenol A, PC, epoxy resin E - 51, pure MDI, and polymer MDI [78][88][89] 4. Strategies - Unilateral: No strategy is provided [4] - Basis and inter - period: Do reverse arbitrage on BZ2603 - BZ2605 when the price is high [4] - Cross - variety: Short BZ2603 and long EB2602, short BZ2603 and long PX2605 [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment rating for both soybeans and peanuts is neutral [3][6] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For soybeans, the short - term soybean price is expected to remain stable, with local narrow - range adjustments due to quality and regional supply - demand differences. The market is supported by farmers' reluctance to sell and policy acquisitions at the bottom, but high prices restrict downstream acceptance. Key factors to track include grass - roots grain sales progress, state - reserve acquisition rhythm, and pre - holiday terminal restocking [2] - For peanuts, in the short term, the price has limited room to fall due to cost support, but lacks the power to rise continuously because of insufficient downstream purchasing enthusiasm. Future trends depend on the actual purchasing sentiment and rhythm changes of downstream enterprises [5] Group 3: Summary by Commodity Soybeans Market Analysis - Futures: The closing price of the soybeans 2605 contract was 4156.00 yuan/ton, up 28.00 yuan/ton (+0.68%) from the previous day [1] - Spot: The spot basis of edible soybeans was A05 + 84, down 28 (-32.14%) from the previous day. Northeast soybean clean - grain prices rose, and high - protein tower - grain prices were stable. The impact of state - reserve auctions and acquisitions was neutral, and the market shipment rhythm slowed down. Southern soybeans had average quality and sufficient supply, with weak downstream demand and stable prices. In the sales areas, processing enterprises were cautious in purchasing [1][2] Strategy - The strategy is neutral [3] Peanuts Market Analysis - Futures: The closing price of the peanuts 2603 contract was 7942.00 yuan/ton, down 28.00 yuan/ton (-0.35%) from the previous day [3] - Spot: The average spot price of peanuts was 8064.00 yuan/ton, up 9.00 yuan/ton (+0.11%) month - on - month. The spot basis was PK03 - 942.00, up 28.00 (-2.89%) month - on - month. The national average price of common peanuts was basically stable, and each region had different price ranges. The contract procurement average price of oil - mill peanuts was 7288 yuan/ton, with different quotes from each oil mill [3] Strategy - The strategy is neutral [6]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report focuses on the continuous price differentiation in the upstream industry and provides an overview of mid - level events, industry status in the upstream, mid - stream, and downstream sectors. Upstream prices show a trend of divergence, with some rising and some falling, while the mid - stream and downstream industries have their own development characteristics such as low - level operation in some mid - stream industries and recovery in some downstream industries. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Mid - level Event Overview - **Production Industry**: The State Administration for Market Regulation has deployed key tasks for 2026, including deepening fair competition governance, breaking administrative monopolies, strengthening anti - monopoly and anti - unfair competition law enforcement, promoting the development quality of business entities, and strengthening the regular supervision of the platform economy [1] - **Service Industry**: The 2026 Tariff Adjustment Plan will be implemented from January 1, 2026, with 935 items of goods subject to import provisional tax rates lower than the most - favored - nation tax rates, and new national sub - items added. Also, regulations on the deduction of advertising and business promotion expenses for certain industries have been announced [2] Industry Overview - **Upstream**: In the chemical industry, PTA prices are rising; in the non - ferrous metals sector, copper prices are rising; in the energy industry, LNG prices are falling [3] - **Mid - stream**: Chemical product start - up rates are at a low level, power plant coal consumption is increasing, and asphalt start - up is in the off - season [4] - **Downstream**: The sales of commercial housing in first, second, and third - tier cities are continuously warming up, and the number of domestic flights is increasing [4] Key Industry Price Index Tracking - **Agriculture**: On December 29, the spot prices of corn, palm oil, cotton, and the average wholesale price of pork increased year - on - year, while the spot price of eggs decreased [37] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: On December 29, the spot prices of copper, zinc, aluminum, and nickel increased year - on - year [37] - **Ferrous Metals**: On December 29, the spot price of线材 increased year - on - year, while the spot prices of rebar and iron ore decreased slightly [37] - **Non - metals**: On December 29, the spot price of natural rubber increased year - on - year, while the spot price of glass and the China Plastic City price index decreased [37] - **Energy**: On December 29, the spot prices of WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil increased slightly year - on - year, while the spot price of liquefied natural gas and coal price decreased [37] - **Chemical Industry**: On December 29, the spot price of PTA increased year - on - year, while the spot price of polyethylene decreased [37] - **Real Estate**: On December 29, the cement price index and the building materials composite index decreased slightly year - on - year, and the concrete price index remained unchanged [37]

农产品日报 | 2025-12-30 市场存在惜售，猪价延续涨势 生猪观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘生猪 2603合约11715元/吨，较前交易日变动+70.00元/吨，幅度+0.60%。现货方面，河南地区 外三元生猪价格12.47元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.29元/公斤，现货基差 LH03+755，较前交易日变动+580；江苏 地区外三元生猪价格 12.90元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.00元/公斤，现货基差LH03+1185，较前交易日变动+890； 四川地区外三元生猪价格12.65元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.07元/公斤，现货基差LH03+935，较前交易日变动+500。 据农业农村部监测，12月29日"农产品批发价格200指数"为129.66，比上周五下降0.46个点，"菜篮子"产品批发价格 指数为132.47，比上周五下降0.53个点。全国农产品批发市场猪肉平均价格为17.67元/公斤，比上周五上升1.4%； 牛肉66.02元/公斤，比上周五上升0.4%；羊肉62.96元/公斤，比上周五上升0.5%；鸡蛋7.35元/公斤，比上周五下降 1.1%；白条鸡17.54元/公斤，比上周五下 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core View The short - term supply and demand of propylene are slightly tightened, and the futures price is in a range - bound consolidation. The supply pattern remains loose, but the supply pressure in the main regions has eased. The demand recovery is limited due to cost pressure. The cost support has increased recently, and the short - term rebound height may be limited. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the shutdown of PDH units [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Propylene Basis Structure The report presents data on the propylene main contract closing price, East China basis, Shandong basis, contract spreads (PL01 - 03, PL03 - 05), and market prices in East China, Shandong, and South China, with data sources from Tonghuashun and Steel Union, and the research institute of Huatai Futures [1][5][7]. 3.2 Propylene Production Profit and Operating Rate It includes information on propylene China CFR - Japanese naphtha CFR, propylene capacity utilization rate, production margins of PDH, MTO, and naphtha cracking of propylene, as well as capacity utilization rates of PDH, methanol - to - olefins, and crude oil refineries. The data sources are mainly from Steel Union and the research institute of Huatai Futures [21][24][31]. 3.3 Propylene Downstream Profit and Operating Rate It shows the production profits and operating rates of PP powder, propylene oxide, n - butanol, octanol, acrylic acid, acrylonitrile, and phenol - acetone. The data sources are from Steel Union and the research institute of Huatai Futures [37][38][39]. 3.4 Propylene Inventory The report provides data on propylene factory inventory and PP powder factory inventory, with data sources from Steel Union and the research institute of Huatai Futures [59].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the pre - holiday market, the scale of ETFs shows a continuous expansion trend, while the stock positions decline. The two effects offset each other, and the market is expected to mainly experience oscillatory recovery before the holiday [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - **Macro**: The State Council Tariff Commission will implement the "2026 Tariff Adjustment Plan" on January 1, 2026. Next year, China will apply temporary import tariff rates lower than the most - favored - nation tariff rates to 935 commodities. The total number of tariff items will increase to 8,972. Overseas, US President Trump said he will announce the nominee for Federal Reserve Chairman at an appropriate time, criticized Fed Chairman Powell and the Fed's building renovation, and is considering suing Powell for incompetence [1]. - **Spot Market**: A - share indices closed with mixed results. The Shanghai Composite Index had a nine - day winning streak, rising 0.04% to close at 3,965.28 points, while the ChiNext Index fell 0.66%. Most sector indices declined, with the petroleum and petrochemical, national defense and military industry, and banking sectors leading the gains, and the non - ferrous metals, public utilities, and power equipment sectors leading the losses. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets exceeded 2 trillion yuan. Overseas, the three major US stock indices all closed down, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling 0.51% to 48,461.93 points [1]. - **Futures Market**: In terms of basis, the basis of stock index futures declined. In terms of trading volume and open interest, both the trading volume and open interest of stock index futures decreased [1]. Macro Economic Charts - Charts include the relationship between the US dollar index and A - share trends, the US Treasury yield and A - share trends, the RMB exchange rate and A - share trends, and the US Treasury yield and A - share style trends [6][7] Spot Market Tracking Charts - **Stock Index Performance**: On December 29, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.04% to 3,965.28, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.49% to 13,537.10, the ChiNext Index fell 0.66% to 3,222.61, the CSI 300 Index fell 0.38% to 4,639.37, the SSE 50 Index fell 0.35% to 3,034.63, the CSI 500 Index fell 0.38% to 7,430.61, and the CSI 1000 Index fell 0.15% to 7,594.16 [13]. - **Other Indicators**: Charts show the trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets and the margin trading balance [14]. Futures Market Tracking Charts - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume and open interest of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts all decreased. For example, the trading volume of IF was 96,159 (down 22,687), and the open interest was 275,855 (down 12,050) [15]. - **Basis**: The basis of stock index futures showed different changes. For example, the current - month contract basis of IF was - 8.57 (down 8.33) [40]. - **Inter - delivery Spread**: The inter - delivery spreads of different contracts also changed. For example, the spread between the next - month and current - month contracts of IF was - 10.00, with a change of + 5.00 [44].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - Currently, driven by funds, the prices of silver and copper have risen significantly, deviating from the fundamentals. Due to the short - term supply bottleneck, the price may not fall immediately. However, attention should be paid to the risk of price decline caused by the reduction of year - end positions. Downstream enterprises are advised to conduct on - demand hedging at the current copper price and not over - hedge excessively. If the price falls to the range of 94,000 yuan/ton to 95,000 yuan/ton, they can increase the intensity of buying hedging. Arbitrage should be postponed, and options should sell put options [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data Futures Quotes - On December 29, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai copper opened at 98,310 yuan/ton and closed at 98,860 yuan/ton, up 0.14% from the previous trading day's close. The night - session main contract opened at 97,020 yuan/ton and closed at 96,060 yuan/ton, down 2.83% from the afternoon close [1]. Spot Situation - According to SMM, the Shanghai copper spot market was in a discount pattern. The quotation range was from a discount of 400 yuan/ton to a premium of 260 yuan/ton, and the average premium increased slightly. The market trading atmosphere was light, and the short - term large - discount situation was expected to continue [2]. Important Information Summary - In terms of the Fed, Trump criticized Powell and considered suing him. Geopolitically, Trump met with Zelensky, and both sides said the talks had made progress but did not make major announcements [3]. Mine End - Aeris Resources received approval to develop the Constellation copper - gold project in the Cobar Basin, Australia. The project has proven and probable ore reserves of 2.3 million tons and a total mineral resource of 7.6 million tons [4]. Smelting and Import - Since last week, the average price of Yangshan copper premium bill of lading was 53.4 US dollars/ton, up 4.4 US dollars/ton week - on - week. The average price of warehouse receipts was 53.6 US dollars/ton, up 10.6 US dollars/ton week - on - week. The EQ copper CIF bill of lading average price was 11 US dollars/ton, down 0.8 US dollars/ton week - on - week. As of December 24, the import loss was about 1,400 yuan/ton. The Yangshan copper premium was expected to strengthen after a short - term stability [5]. Consumption - In the week of December 27, 2025, the operating rate of refined copper rod enterprises was 60.73%, down 2.34 percentage points month - on - month. The operating rate of copper cable enterprises was 60.75%, down 5.96 percentage points month - on - month. Next week, the operating rate of refined copper rod enterprises was expected to drop to 55.28%, and that of cable enterprises to 60.35% [6]. Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - LME warehouse receipts changed by - 1,550 tons to 154,575 tons. SHFE warehouse receipts changed by 7,231 tons to 65,878 tons. On December 29, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 214,800 tons, a change of 21,200 tons from the previous week [6]. Price and Related Data - The report also provides data on TC price, SMM1 copper premium and discount, refined - scrap price difference, copper import profit and loss, copper main contract position and trading volume, etc. It also shows the price and basis data of copper at different times (today, yesterday, last week, one month) [8][27][28][29]