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液化石油气日报:地缘风险仍存,盘面震荡偏强运行-20260130
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2026-01-30 05:37
液化石油气日报 | 2026-01-30 3、\t2026年2月下半月中国华南冷冻货到岸价格丙烷627美元/吨,涨2美元/吨,丁烷622美元/吨,涨7美元/吨,折合 人民币价格丙烷4815元/吨,涨15元/吨,丁烷4777元/吨,涨54元/吨。(数据来源:卓创资讯) 伊朗局势依然较为紧张,市场担忧美国与以色列对伊朗采取军事打击,昨日原油地缘风险溢价进一步攀升,并带 动下游能化品种整体上涨。由于LPG是伊朗出口的主要油品之一,且大部分出口到我国,因此市场供应面临一定 风险,需要持续关注伊朗局势发展。此外,美国的寒潮天气也对LPG存在利多。然而,如果排除地缘和天气因素 的利多,LPG市场同样存在明显阻力,尤其内盘PG表现要弱于外盘丙丁烷。一方面,高企的原料进口成本压制了 下游PDH等装置的利润,从而造成需求负反馈;另一方面,醚后碳四与民用气价格的倒挂也对PG盘面形成额外压 制。此外,仓单与交割博弈给市场带来扰动,对于目前的主力合约PG2603,仓单在3月底集中注销的压力将更为明 显。往前看,如果伊朗地缘局势能够缓和,中期海外供应增长趋势将延续,中东与美国供应均存在回升空间,全 球平衡表依然是供过于求的格局。 策略 ...
基本面跟随困难,铝价短期警惕风险
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2026-01-30 05:37
新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-01-30 基本面跟随困难铝价短期警惕风险 重要数据 铝现货方面:SMM数据,华东A00铝价24860元/吨,较上一交易日变化600元/吨,华东铝现货升贴水-200元/ 吨,较上一交易日变化-20元/吨;中原A00铝价24690元/吨,现货升贴水较上一交易日变化-50元/吨至-370元/ 吨;佛山A00铝价录24810元/吨,较上一交易日变化580元/吨,铝现货升贴水较上一交易日变化-40元/吨至-245 元/吨。 铝期货方面:2026-01-29日沪铝主力合约开于25430元/吨,收于25590元/吨,较上一交易日变化725元/吨,最 高价达25975元/吨,最低价达到25055元/吨。全天交易日成交1013509手,全天交易日持仓342527手。 铝合金价格方面:2026-01-29保太民用生铝采购价格18700元/吨,机械生铝采购价格19100元/吨,价格环比昨 日变化400元/吨。ADC12保太报价24000元/吨,价格环比昨日变化200元/吨。 铝合金库存:铝合金社会库存6.73万吨,厂内库存7.11万吨。 铝合金成本利润:理论总成本23765元/吨,理论利润33 ...
化工日报:海外订单改善,半钢胎开工率回升-20260130
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2026-01-30 05:37
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a cautious and bullish stance on both RU and NR, as well as BR [10]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global supply of natural rubber is transitioning from the peak season to the off - season, which may gradually reduce supply pressure. However, there is still concentrated arrivals in China in late January, so the domestic supply is under short - term pressure. With the reduction of global supply pressure and raw material stockpiling by upstream factories, raw material prices are expected to remain firm, providing strong cost support for rubber. The downstream tire operating rate has rebounded, especially for semi - steel tires due to a slight improvement in orders. Currently, the downstream is in the pre - holiday stocking period, which limits the extent of domestic inventory accumulation. The relatively low price of domestic NR compared to Singapore's 20 - grade rubber indicates low valuation, and the rubber price is expected to remain strong in the short term [10]. - For BR, the strong price of butadiene has further enlarged the production loss of cis - butadiene rubber. Some private plants in North China may reduce production or switch production, which will ease short - term supply pressure. Although Maoming Petrochemical has restarted, the supply is still expected to be abundant. The downstream tire operating rate has rebounded, especially for semi - steel tires. Currently, the downstream is in the pre - holiday stocking period, but high prices may suppress stocking willingness, and overall demand remains stable. The support for upstream butadiene mainly comes from export benefits and overseas butadiene plant overhauls. With the continuous decline of domestic butadiene port inventory, the butadiene price is expected to remain strong, and the cis - butadiene rubber price will follow a strong and volatile trend. Attention should be paid to the negative feedback of downstream demand caused by high prices [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Data - **Futures**: On the previous trading day, the closing price of the RU main contract was 16,690 yuan/ton, up 330 yuan/ton from the previous day; the NR main contract was 13,455 yuan/ton, up 265 yuan/ton; the BR main contract was 13,390 yuan/ton, up 125 yuan/ton [1]. - **Spot**: The price of Yunnan - produced whole latex in the Shanghai market was 16,450 yuan/ton, up 350 yuan/ton from the previous day. The price of Thai mixed rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 15,450 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan/ton. The price of Thai 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 2,000 US dollars/ton, up 55 US dollars/ton. The price of Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,940 US dollars/ton, up 50 US dollars/ton. The ex - factory price of BR9000 of PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical was 13,000 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The market price of BR9000 of Zhejiang Chuanhua was 12,900 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1]. Market Information - **Natural Rubber Imports**: In December 2025, China's natural rubber imports (including technical classification, latex, smoked sheets, primary forms, mixed rubber, and composite rubber) were 803,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 24.84% and a year - on - year increase of 25.4%. From January to December 2025, the cumulative import volume was 6.6751 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 17.94% [2]. - **Rubber Tire Exports**: In 2025, China's rubber tire exports reached 9.65 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.6%; the export value was 167.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2%. Among them, the exports of new pneumatic rubber tires reached 9.29 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.3%; the export value was 161.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.8%. In terms of the number of tires, the export volume was 7.0162 billion, a year - on - year increase of 3.1% [2]. - **Automobile Production and Sales**: In December 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 3.296 million and 3.272 million respectively, a month - on - month decrease of 6.7% and 4.6%, and a year - on - year decrease of 2.1% and 6.2% respectively. In 2025, the annual automobile production and sales were 34.531 million and 34.4 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 10.4% and 9.4% respectively, setting a new historical high and ranking first in the world for 17 consecutive years [2]. ANRPC Report and Industry Trends - ANRPC's November 2025 report predicts that the global natural rubber production in November is expected to decrease by 2.6% to 1.474 million tons, a 1.5% decrease from the previous month; the consumption is expected to decrease by 1.4% to 1.248 million tons, a 0.9% decrease from the previous month. In the first 11 months, the cumulative global natural rubber production is expected to increase by 2% to 13.375 million tons, and the cumulative consumption is expected to decrease by 1.7% to 13.932 million tons [3]. - The capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises fluctuated this week. The production of semi - steel tires increased slightly due to foreign trade orders, and most enterprises remained stable. The shipment of all - steel tires was under pressure, and some enterprises controlled production, resulting in a slight decrease in utilization rate. It is expected that the capacity utilization rate will be slightly weak and stable this week. During the pre - holiday stocking period, the production arrangement of enterprises has not been significantly adjusted, and inventory is stocked to ensure post - holiday supply. Some all - steel tire enterprises may moderately reduce production due to slow shipment and high finished product inventory [3]. Market Analysis Natural Rubber - **Spot and Spreads**: On January 29, 2026, the RU basis was - 240 yuan/ton (+20), the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 1,240 yuan/ton (+80), the NR basis was 499.00 yuan/ton (+122.00); the price of whole latex was 16,450 yuan/ton (+350), the price of mixed rubber was 15,450 yuan/ton (+250), the price of 3L spot was 16,800 yuan/ton (+300). The STR20 was quoted at 2,000 US dollars/ton (+55), the spread between whole latex and 3L was - 350 yuan/ton (+50); the spread between mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 2,450 yuan/ton (+250) [4]. - **Raw Materials**: The price of Thai smoked sheets was 61.11 Thai baht/kg (+0.34), the price of Thai glue was 58.30 Thai baht/kg (+0.30), the price of Thai cup lump was 53.50 Thai baht/kg (+0.50), and the spread between Thai glue and cup lump was 4.80 Thai baht/kg (-0.20) [5]. - **Operating Rate**: The operating rate of all - steel tires was 62.47% (-0.06%), and the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 74.32% (+0.48%) [6]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of natural rubber was 584,504 tons (-393), the inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao Port was 1,271,830 tons (-2,137), the RU futures inventory was 109,870 tons (+1,480), and the NR futures inventory was 55,339 tons (-1,411) [6]. Cis - Butadiene Rubber (BR) - **Spot and Spreads**: On January 29, 2026, the BR basis was - 590 yuan/ton (-125), the ex - factory price of butadiene of Sinopec was 10,600 yuan/ton (+0), the price of BR9000 of Qilu Petrochemical was 13,000 yuan/ton (+0), the price of BR9000 of Zhejiang Chuanhua was 12,900 yuan/ton (+0), the price of private cis - butadiene rubber in Shandong was 12,500 yuan/ton (+0), and the import profit of cis - butadiene rubber in Northeast Asia was - 579 yuan/ton (+16) [7]. - **Operating Rate**: The operating rate of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber was 76.38% (+0.26%) [8]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of cis - butadiene rubber traders was 6,780 tons (+430), and the inventory of cis - butadiene rubber enterprises was 27,650 tons (-1,400) [9].
燃料油日报:盘面延续强势,关注伊朗局势发展-20260130
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2026-01-30 05:36
Group 1: Market Analysis - The main contract of fuel oil futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed up 4% at 2,831 yuan/ton, and the main contract of INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures closed up 3.09% at 3,307 yuan/ton [1] - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East remains tense, with an increasing risk of the US striking Iran. Coupled with the overall enthusiastic sentiment in commodities, oil prices rose again yesterday, driving up the prices of FU and LU. Among them, FU is more elastic to the Iran conflict [1] Group 2: Fundamental Analysis High-sulfur Fuel Oil - The market structure of high-sulfur fuel oil has improved marginally recently, with spot discounts, calendar spreads, and crack spreads strengthening significantly, and downstream demand performing relatively well [2] - After the US gradually controls Venezuelan oil resources, domestic asphalt refineries need to find alternative raw materials, and fuel oil is one of the options. According to shipping schedule data, the arrival volume of high-sulfur fuel oil in China is expected to increase in January and February [2] - As the geopolitical situation in Iran heats up, the regional fuel oil supply faces potential threats from geopolitical conflicts, which constitutes the main upward risk in the current market. However, if the situation in Iran eases, FU does not have the momentum to continue strengthening [2] Low-sulfur Fuel Oil - The current market contradictions of low-sulfur fuel oil are limited, mainly following the passive rise of the crude oil end. Recently, the crack spread has been oscillating strongly, but there is no clear trend [2] - With the dynamic changes in the Dangote and Azur refinery units, the supply in Nigeria and Kuwait has increased significantly. In addition, after the widening of the east-west spread, the volume of arbitrage cargoes may increase in February, and the local market pressure may increase [2] - Looking forward, the contradictions of surplus production capacity and the replacement of the demand share in the marine fuel sector still exist, which will be a continuous upward resistance. However, based on the current valuation level, the high premium of gasoline and diesel will continue to divert low-sulfur oil components, providing a certain support for the valuation. Recently, the spread of low-sulfur fuel oil to gasoline and diesel has rebounded, partially reflecting the diversion of raw materials by RFCC units, resulting in a marginal convergence of the premium [2] Group 3: Strategy High-sulfur Fuel Oil - Short-term oscillating strongly, pay attention to the development of the situation in Iran [3] Low-sulfur Fuel Oil - Short-term oscillating strongly, pay attention to the development of the situation in Iran [3] Spread Trading - No specific strategy [3] Calendar Spread - Pay attention to the opportunity to go long the spread between FU2603 and FU2605 (positive spread) at low levels [3] Futures-Spot Arbitrage - No specific strategy [3] Options - No specific strategy [3]
债市逐渐修复,国债期货大多收涨
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2026-01-30 05:35
国债期货日报 | 2026-01-30 市场分析 宏观面:(1)宏观政策: 12月8日政治局会议明确实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策,释放宽货币 信号;中央经济工作会议提出,2026年财政政策方面继续实施更加积极的财政政策,货币方面继续实施适度宽松 的货币政策,灵活高效运用降准、降息及结构性政策工具,为"十五五"良好开局提供稳定的宏观政策环境;2026 年1月19日起,下调再贷款、再贴现等一篮子利率0.25个百分点,同时今年还存在继续降准降息的空间。(2)通胀: 12月CPI同比上升0.8%。 债市逐渐修复,国债期货大多收涨 财政:(3)财政:11 月一般公共预算收入在高基数影响下同比放缓,但全年收入进度仍偏快,第一本账完成压力 不大,财政托底能力仍在。支出端呈现出降幅明显收窄的特征,前期预算内资金逐步转化为实际支出,结构上更 加向民生和投资于人倾斜,基建相关支出边际改善但整体仍偏弱。政府性基金收入继续受地产拖累,但专项债发 行提速带动支出同比转正,对广义财政形成支撑。整体来看,当前财政体现为稳总量、调结构、托底为主,短期 对经济形成一定支撑,但更强拉动仍有赖于准财政资金和明年政策加码的进一步落地。 ...
黑色建材日报:市场情绪高涨,煤价低位反弹-20260130
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2026-01-30 05:22
黑色建材日报 | 2026-01-30 市场情绪高涨,煤价低位反弹 玻璃纯碱:市场情绪提振,玻碱震荡反弹 供需与逻辑:玻璃市场短期供应偏紧格局延续,产线冷修持续推进叠加库存去化明显,供应端趋紧对价格形成支 撑;下游春节前备货需求亦为市场刚需提供一定支撑。后续需重点跟踪产线冷修进展及企业补库节奏。 纯碱方面:昨日纯碱 2605 主力合约震荡反弹。现货市场报价随盘面波动,成交价企稳,下游企业以刚需采购为主。 供需与逻辑:纯碱市场供应过剩的弱现实格局未明显改善,库存虽累库幅度不及市场预期,但仍处于高位;需求 端,浮法玻璃步入消费淡季,市场以春节刚需备货为主,后续需关注长假期间企业补库节奏。此外,受市场情绪 回暖带动,纯碱投机性需求有所回升。 策略 玻璃方面:震荡 纯碱方面:震荡 跨期:无 跨品种:无 市场分析 玻璃方面:昨日玻璃2605主力合约有所反弹,成交量与持仓量较前日有所增加,交投活跃。现货报价随盘面价格 波动,部分厂家报价上涨。 风险 宏观及房地产政策、纯碱新投产进度、纯碱出口数据、浮法玻璃产线复产冷修情况等。 双硅:市场情绪提振,盘面震荡上行 市场分析 硅锰方面:昨日锰硅主力合约受黑色系期货影响,收涨1. ...
黑色建材日报:市场情绪高涨,煤焦低位反弹-20260130
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2026-01-30 05:21
Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The overall market sentiment is high, with coal and coke rebounding from low levels. Steel, iron ore, coking coal, and coke prices have all shown certain trends, and the market is affected by factors such as supply and demand, cost, and seasonal factors [1][2][6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Analysis**: The futures market of steel was generally strong yesterday. The main contract of rebar futures closed at 3,157 yuan/ton, up 1.09%, and the main contract of hot-rolled coil closed at 3,308 yuan/ton, up 0.85%. The spot market had average to good transactions, mainly in futures-spot trading, while rigid demand purchases were weak, and prices rose following the futures market. The national building materials trading volume was 72,915 [1]. - **Supply and Demand Logic**: In the off-season, the overall contradiction in the steel market is limited, and production remains rigid. In terms of demand, as the Spring Festival approaches, the digestion speed of building materials in the market slows down, and the purchasing sentiment is weak, which significantly suppresses the demand for rebar. The demand for hot-rolled coils on the plate side is relatively stable, but the purchasing sentiment of downstream manufacturers is also cautious, and the actual driving effect on the demand for hot-rolled coils is limited. On the cost side, the warming sentiment of coal and coke has injected positive sentiment into the steel market, making the commodity sentiment warm up [1]. - **Strategy**: The unilateral strategy is to expect a volatile market, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, futures - spot, and options trading [2]. Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: The futures price of iron ore was strong yesterday. In the spot market, the prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties at Tangshan Port were strong. Traders' enthusiasm for quoting was average, and steel mills' purchases were mainly for rigid demand. The current spot market transactions were cold. The cumulative transaction volume of iron ore at major ports nationwide was 865,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.57%. The cumulative transaction volume of forward - looking spot was 1.33 million tons (9 transactions), a month - on - month increase of 12.71% (including 820,000 tons of mine sales). The average daily hot metal output of 247 steel mills this week was 2.2798 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 120,000 tons. The total inventory of iron ore at 45 ports this period was 170.22 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.5% [2]. - **Supply and Demand Logic**: In terms of supply, high valuations stimulate shipments, and the supply release is relatively sufficient. In terms of demand, the profitability of steel mills has recovered in the short term, but the average daily hot metal output has decreased slightly this week. In terms of inventory, the port inventory has continued to hit new highs this week, but the liquidity of some port supplies has been locked, and the steel mills' inventory is still at a low level compared to the same period. Currently, the supply - demand contradiction of iron ore continues to intensify. With high global shipments at high valuations and the locking of the liquidity of some port supplies, the actual fundamentals of iron ore are better than the statistical data. High ore prices stimulate supply release. If the factors locking the liquidity are removed later, the port supplies will form a supply shock, so there is uncertainty in the long - term iron ore market. In the short term, steel mills are in the second half of the winter storage replenishment period, and it is expected that the support for raw material prices will gradually weaken, and the iron ore price will maintain a volatile operation. Later, attention should be paid to the progress of subsequent iron ore negotiations and the replenishment situation of steel mills [3]. - **Strategy**: The unilateral strategy is to short on rallies. There are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, futures - spot, and options trading [4]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: The futures prices of coking coal and coke rose significantly yesterday. For coke, steel mills fully implemented the first - round price increase, with an increase of 50 - 55 yuan/ton. Recently, some coking plants in the northern region have been affected by environmental protection again, and their production has been restricted. For coking coal, the prices in the main production areas are strong. For imported Mongolian coal, the quotation of Mongolian coal is weakly stable, and the long - term contract price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal is mostly around 1,000 - 1,020 yuan/ton [6]. - **Supply and Demand Logic**: For coke, the first - round price increase by steel mills has been implemented. Affected by environmental protection, the supply has tightened, and the pre - holiday replenishment is approaching the end. Generally speaking, the fundamentals of coke are relatively balanced. For coking coal, the production of clean coal has increased and the inventory has decreased, and the clean coal inventory is at a low level compared to the same period. As the Spring Festival approaches, there is an expectation of a marginal weakening of the short - term supply of coal. Coupled with the rebound of thermal coal prices, it provides support for coking coal prices. Later, attention should be paid to the profitability and replenishment actions of steel mills, and the market will continue to be volatile in the short term [6]. - **Strategy**: The strategy for coking coal and coke is to expect a volatile market. There are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, futures - spot, and options trading [6]. Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: In the origin, the number of coal mines that have stopped production after completing their monthly tasks in the main production areas has increased, and the supply has continued to shrink. The coal prices in the "Three Western" regions have generally shown an upward trend. The increase in the external purchase price of large groups has directly boosted the market sentiment. In addition, as the Spring Festival approaches, the replenishment demand of some terminals and platforms has been released, the number of coal - pulling trucks at some coal mines has increased, and the prices have risen slightly. Mine operators are mostly concerned about the future port trends and supply - demand changes. At the port, affected by the shrinkage of supply at the origin, the port shipping has been in a reverse situation. In addition, the current daily consumption has not decreased, and the port quotations have been firm. However, the downstream inquiries are few, and there is obvious resistance to high - priced coal, so the actual port transactions are few. Some people believe that the current upstream shipping is less, and it is difficult to replenish the stock after shipment. Coupled with the high daily consumption of power plants, they are continuously optimistic. However, it should be noted that the downstream demand has not been substantially improved, so some traders believe that it is not appropriate to be overly optimistic at present and should remain cautious. In the import market, the imported coal market has been affected by domestic factors and extreme weather in Indonesia, resulting in less arrival of resources and firm quotations [6]. - **Supply and Demand Logic**: Recently, some coal mines have stopped production after completing their monthly tasks, and the price has continued to rise under the shrinkage of supply. Moreover, the recent cold wave has led to a surge in downstream daily consumption, and it is expected that the coal price will stabilize this week. In the long - term, attention should be paid to the changes in the supply pattern and the consumption and replenishment of non - power coal [7]. - **Strategy**: No strategy is provided [7].
关注美国12月PPI数据和中国1月官方制造业PMI
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2026-01-30 05:21
FICC日报 | 2026-01-30 关注美国12月PPI数据和中国1月官方制造业PMI 市场分析 通胀叙事大趋势不改。12月11日中央经济工作会议召开:会议强调,深入实施提振消费专项行动;强调深入整治"内 卷式"竞争制定和实施;会议确认,把促进经济稳定增长、物价合理回升作为货币政策的重要考量。后续继续提振 消费,以及推进"反内卷"的大方向并未发生变化,未来物价回升路径仍需关注供给侧的政策方向。1月15日,央行 宣布下调各类结构性货币政策工具利率0.25个百分点,各类再贷款一年期利率降至1.25%,其他期限档次利率同步 调整。并强调,今年降准降息还有一定空间,人民币汇率预计将继续双向浮动,保持弹性。1 月 20 日,财政部官 网集中发布 5 个重要政策文件,涵盖个人消费贷款、设备更新、中小微企业贷款、服务业经营主体贷款及民间投 资专项担保五大领域,以 "延长期限、扩大范围、提高标准" 为核心导向,通过财政贴息与担保支持,降低融资成 本、激发市场活力,助力扩大内需与经济高质量发展。此外,伊朗和委内瑞拉的地缘局势骤紧,在民粹主义和贸 易保护主义思潮下,全球争夺矿产和能源资源的局势明朗。同时,特朗普近期就格陵兰岛 ...
纯苯苯乙烯日报:原油推动成本上涨,下游开工小幅回落-20260130
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2026-01-30 05:21
纯苯苯乙烯日报 | 2026-01-30 市场要闻与重要数据 纯苯方面:纯苯主力基差-91元/吨(+19)。纯苯港口库存30.50万吨(+0.80万吨);纯苯CFR中国加工费179美元/吨 (-4美元/吨),纯苯FOB韩国加工费177美元/吨(-5美元/吨),纯苯美韩价差95.0美元/吨(-11.0美元/吨)。华东纯苯 现货-M2价差-110元/吨(+5元/吨)。 纯苯下游方面:己内酰胺生产利润-1105元/吨(-135),酚酮生产利润-781元/吨(+137),苯胺生产利润1134元/吨 (-107),己二酸生产利润-781元/吨(-13)。己内酰胺开工率73.57%(-2.60%),苯酚开工率88.00%(+2.50%),苯 胺开工率88.53%(+0.92%),己二酸开工率68.50%(-0.60%)。 苯乙烯方面:苯乙烯主力基差137元/吨(-28元/吨);苯乙烯非一体化生产利润758元/吨(-1元/吨),预期逐步压缩。 苯乙烯华东港口库存100600吨(+7100吨),苯乙烯华东商业库存62300吨(+3400吨),处于库存回建阶段。苯乙烯 开工率69.3%(-0.4%)。 下游硬胶方面:EPS生产 ...
有色板块走强,镍不锈钢震荡走高
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2026-01-30 05:20
新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-01-30 有色板块走强,镍不锈钢震荡走高 镍品种 市场分析 2026-01-29日沪镍主力合约2603开于145240元/吨,收于147470元/吨,较前一交易日收盘变化1.79%,当日成交量为 783275(+378683)手,持仓量为136553(2253)手。 期货方面:昨日沪镍主力合约宽幅震荡上行走势,美联储降息预期升温,全球大宗商品风险偏好回升,有色板块 整体走强,资金流入推高价格;伦镍隔夜偏强,对沪镍形成外部支撑。基本面方面,当前精炼镍库存持续高位, 对镍价形成压制,虽镍矿、镍铁价格上涨带来成本支撑,但新能源汽车需求提振有限,难以抵消库存高企的利空 影响。 镍矿方面:Mysteel方面消息,日内镍矿市场整体持稳运行,价格在前几日连续上涨后进入高位盘整阶段,市场交 投氛围趋于平静,买卖双方观望情绪增加。矿山端基于前期达成的高价成交,报价维持坚挺。日内暂无最新招标 价格,今日部分矿山1.3%镍矿的FOB招标价格在40美元/湿吨,市场参与者多关注后续矿山的出货动向与报价指引, 操作趋于谨慎。印尼方面,2月份镍矿升水拉涨至28-32美元/湿吨,镍矿供应紧张,这构成了市 ...