流动性日报 | 2025-12-03 市场流动性概况 2025-12-02，股指板块成交4594.06亿元，较上一交易日变动-12.06%；持仓金额12492.16亿元，较上一交易日变动 -2.55%；成交持仓比为36.64%。 国债板块成交3546.25亿元，较上一交易日变动+10.35%；持仓金额7321.96亿元，较上一交易日变动+0.43%；成交 持仓比为48.03%。 基本金属板块成交4120.38亿元，较上一交易日变动-25.45%；持仓金额6399.35亿元，较上一交易日变动+0.19%； 成交持仓比为63.73%。 贵金属板块成交10654.04亿元，较上一交易日变动-4.58%；持仓金额4895.88亿元，较上一交易日变动+0.43%；成 交持仓比为336.55%。 能源化工板块成交3828.59亿元，较上一交易日变动-11.77%；持仓金额4633.38亿元，较上一交易日变动+0.68%； 成交持仓比为74.19%。 农产品板块成交2924.01亿元，较上一交易日变动-0.61%；持仓金额6103.69亿元，较上一交易日变动+0.53%；成交 持仓比为45.19%。 黑色建材板块成交189 ...

贵金属日报 | 2025-12-03 下任美联储主席人选逐步确定 市场分析 美联储方面，美国总统特朗普表示他计划在2026年初公布下一任美联储主席人选。有"新美联储通讯社"之称的财 经记者Nick Timiraos表示，尽管美联储主席候选人面试仍在进行中，但特朗普已"内定"白宫国家经济委员会主任哈 塞特担任这一职位。地缘方面，特朗普暗示美军将很快开始在委内瑞拉及其他地区的陆地上打击贩毒集团，此前 美国对主要集中在加勒比海和东太平洋的涉嫌贩毒船只进行了打击；市场担忧美国可能卷入与委内瑞拉的军事冲 突。 期货行情与成交量： 2025-12-02，沪金主力合约开于964.82元/克，收于958.42元/克，较前一交易日收盘变动-0.50%。当日成交量为41087 手，持仓量为129725手。昨日夜盘沪金主力合约开于958.00元/克，收于953.82元/克，较昨日午后收盘下跌0.48%。 2025-12-02，沪银主力合约开于13303.00元/千克，收于13423.00元/千克，较前一交易日收盘变动1.09%。当日成交 量为2464589手，持仓量为459321手。昨日夜盘沪银主力合约开于13485元/千克，收于 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-12-03 基本面变化相对有限 铜价高位震荡 市场要闻与重要数据 期货行情： 2025-12-02，沪铜主力合约开于 89410元/吨，收于 88920元/吨，较前一交易日收盘-0.40%，昨日夜盘沪铜主力合 约开于 89100元/吨，收于 88590元/吨，较昨日午后收盘下跌0.37%。 现货情况： 据 SMM 讯，昨日SMM电解铜现货报价为升水20-220元/吨，均价升水120元/吨，较昨日上涨15元。1#铜价格区间 为88430至88890元/吨。沪铜主力合约早间自88840元滑落至88340元，随后止跌并窄幅整理于88620元附近。市场采 购情绪略有回暖，但持货商因可售货源有限而维持挺价。早盘平水铜货源成交迅速，多数报价升至升水20-80元/ 吨，好铜供应持续紧张。非注册货源成交则位于贴水200至170元/吨。跨月价差维持Contango结构，进口亏损扩大 至1400元/吨。预计今日现货市场将延续供需双弱下的僵持局面，价格支撑依然较强。 重要资讯汇总： 宏观与地缘方面，美国总统特朗普表示他计划在2026年初公布下一任美联储主席人选。有"新美联储通讯社"之称 的财经记 ...

氯碱日报 | 2025-12-03 市场要闻与重要数据 PVC: 期货价格及基差：PVC主力收盘价4575元/吨（+22）；华东基差-85元/吨（-22）;华南基差-55元/吨（-2）。 现货价格：华东电石法报价4490元/吨（+0）；华南电石法报价4520元/吨（+20）。 上游生产利润：兰炭价格800元/吨（+0）；电石价格2880元/吨（+0）；电石利润-50元/吨（+0）；PVC电石法生产毛 利-881元/吨（-33）；PVC乙烯法生产毛利-465元/吨（+51）；PVC出口利润-9.4美元/吨（-0.3）。 PVC库存与开工：PVC厂内库存32.3万吨（+0.7）；PVC社会库存52.8万吨（+0.1）；PVC电石法开工率82.21%（+2.06%）； PVC乙烯法开工率71.12%（-0.19%）；PVC开工率78.85%（+1.37%）。 下游订单情况：生产企业预售量67.0万吨（-0.7）。 烧碱： 烧碱偏弱震荡 现货价格：山东32%液碱报价730元/吨（+0）；山东50%液碱报价1200元/吨（+0）。 上游生产利润：山东烧碱单品种利润1260元/吨（+0）；山东氯碱综合利润（0.8吨液氯） ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - RU and NR are rated neutral, and BR is also rated neutral [10] Core Viewpoints - For natural rubber, the end of rain in southern Thailand in early December requires further assessment of flood impacts. Domestic rubber inventories are increasing, with supply from Thailand to increase, and the supply - demand structure may widen the spread between RU and NR. For BR, the recent price rebound is driven by butadiene, but the support is limited, and the supply is expected to increase while downstream demand is weak [10] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Data - Futures: On the previous trading day, the closing price of the RU main contract was 15,360 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan/ton; the NR main contract was 12,230 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton; the BR main contract was 10,685 yuan/ton, up 375 yuan/ton [1] - Spot: Yunnan - produced whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,950 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton; Qingdao Free Trade Zone Thai mixed rubber was 14,580 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton; Thai 20 - number standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,835 US dollars/ton, unchanged; Indonesian 20 - number standard rubber was 1,730 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars/ton; PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical BR9000 ex - factory price was 10,600 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton; Zhejiang Chuanhua BR9000 market price was 10,400 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton [1] Market Information - China's rubber tire exports in the first 10 months of 2025 reached 8.03 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.8%, and the export value was 140.2 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.8%. New pneumatic rubber tire exports reached 7.74 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.6%, and the export value was 134.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.6%. In terms of quantity, the export volume was 586.64 million pieces, a year - on - year increase of 4%. From January to October, automobile tire exports were 6.85 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.3%, and the export value was 115.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.1% [2] - In October 2025, China's natural rubber imports were 510,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14.27% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.9%. From January to October, the cumulative import volume was 5.2281 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 17.27% [2] - After centralized maintenance in October, some enterprises still had maintenance and production reduction in November, and the phenomenon may continue in December, dragging down overall production [2] - In the first three quarters of 2025, Thailand's natural rubber exports (excluding compound rubber) totaled 1.993 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8%. Among them, standard rubber exports totaled 1.116 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 20%; smoked sheet rubber exports were 308,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 22%; latex exports were 556,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 10%. From January to September, exports to China totaled 759,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6%. Among them, standard rubber exports to China totaled 459,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 19%; smoked sheet rubber exports to China totaled 99,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 330%; latex exports to China totaled 199,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 70% [3] - In October, the national passenger car market retail volume was 2.242 million vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 0.8% and a month - on - month decrease of 0.1%. From January to October, the cumulative retail volume was 19.25 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 7.9% [3] - In September 2025, the EU passenger car market sales increased by 10% to 888,672 vehicles. The cumulative sales in the first three quarters increased by 0.9% year - on - year to 8.06 million vehicles [3] Market Analysis Natural Rubber - Spot and spreads: On December 2, 2025, the RU basis was - 410 yuan/ton (- 10), the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 780 yuan/ton (+ 80), the NR basis was 761.00 yuan/ton (- 53.00); whole latex was 14,950 yuan/ton (+ 100), mixed rubber was 14,580 yuan/ton (+ 30), 3L spot was 15,250 yuan/ton (+ 50). STR20 was quoted at 1,835 US dollars/ton (+ 0), the spread between whole latex and 3L was - 300 yuan/ton (+ 50); the spread between mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 3,580 yuan/ton (- 170) [4] - Raw materials: Thai smoked sheet was 59.55 baht/kg (+ 0.00), Thai latex was 55.50 baht/kg (- 0.50), Thai cup lump was 52.95 baht/kg (+ 0.85), and the spread between Thai latex and cup lump was 4.05 baht/kg (- 0.15) [5] - Operating rate: The operating rate of all - steel tires was 62.75% (+ 0.71%), and the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 66.00% (- 3.36%) [6] - Inventory: The social inventory of natural rubber was 481,562 tons (+ 12,685), the inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao Port was 1,079,708 tons (+ 17,827), the RU futures inventory was 41,400 tons (+ 1,800), and the NR futures inventory was 51,307 tons (+ 1,108) [6] Butadiene Rubber - Spot and spreads: On December 2, 2025, the BR basis was - 385 yuan/ton (- 275), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 7,100 yuan/ton (+ 0), the price of Qilu Petrochemical BR9000 was 10,600 yuan/ton (+ 200), the market price of Zhejiang Chuanhua BR9000 was 10,400 yuan/ton (+ 150), the price of private butadiene rubber in Shandong was 10,100 yuan/ton (+ 200), and the import profit of butadiene rubber in Northeast Asia was - 1,282 yuan/ton (+ 100) [7] - Operating rate: The operating rate of high - cis butadiene rubber was 70.19% (- 2.45%) [8] - Inventory: The inventory of butadiene rubber traders was 5,540 tons (+ 660), and the inventory of butadiene rubber enterprises was 26,900 tons (+ 270) [9] Strategy - For RU and NR, maintain a neutral stance. The impact of floods in southern Thailand needs further assessment, domestic inventories are increasing, demand is weak, and the supply - demand structure may widen the spread between RU and NR. For BR, maintain a neutral stance. The price rebound is driven by butadiene, but the support is limited, supply is expected to increase, and downstream demand is weak [10]

航运日报 | 2025-12-03 马士基12月下半月涨价，关注下半月涨价落地情况 市场分析 线上报价方面。 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 Gemini Cooperation：马士基上海-鹿特丹12月第二周价格介于1435/2230,12月第三周价格1530/2400；HPL -SPOT 12 月上半月船期报价1285/2035，12月下半月价格1885/3035. MSC+Premier Alliance：MSC 12月上半月价格1485/2465，12月下半月价格1605/2665；ONE 12月上半月价格 1735/2235，12月下半月船期报价2125/2835；HMM上海-鹿特丹12月上半月船司价格1208/2106; YML 12/8-12/15船 期价格最新更新为1250/2000，其中FE3 FE4单航次特价1100/1700. Ocean Alliance：CMA 上海-鹿特丹12月上半月船期报价1435/2445,12月下半月船期价格介于1985/3545；EMC 12 月上半月价格1855/2810；OOCL 12月上半月报价介于2230-24 ...

化工日报 | 2025-12-03 主港延续累库，EG价格下跌 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日EG主力合约收盘价3877元/吨（较前一交易日变动-5元/吨，幅度-0.13%），EG华东市场现货价3876 元/吨（较前一交易日变动-21元/吨，幅度-0.54%），EG华东现货基差1元/吨（环比-3元/吨）。 生产利润方面：据隆众数据，乙烯制EG生产毛利为-63美元/吨（环比+1美元/吨），煤基合成气制EG生产毛利为-1016 元/吨（环比+27元/吨）。 库存方面：根据 CCF 每周一发布的数据，MEG 华东主港库存为75.3万吨（环比+2.1万吨）；根据隆众每周四发布 的数据， MEG 华东主港库存为70.8万吨（环比+7.5万吨）。据CCF数据，上周华东主港计划到港总数11.1万吨，副 港到港量1.4万吨；本周华东主港计划到港总数16.1万吨，副港到港量4.1万吨，整体偏高，预计主港将继续累库。 整体基本面供需逻辑：供应端，国内乙二醇负荷高位下降，部分短流程油化工装置生产压力较大，后续关注其裂 解环节以及乙二醇装置降负可能；海外乙二醇海外装置变化有限，短期港口库存预计持稳，但12月上旬仍有沙特 大船抵港计划。需 ...

甲醇日报 | 2025-12-03 地区价差方面：鲁北-西北-280价差-70元/吨（+5），太仓-内蒙-550价差-418元/吨（+9），太仓-鲁南-250价差-381元/ 吨（-4）；鲁南-太仓-100价差31元/吨（+4）；广东-华东-180价差-217元/吨（-9）；华东-川渝-200价差-233元/吨（-76）。 市场分析 港口方面。伊朗装置装置已集中兑现冬检，但仍要等待12月装船减少的兑现，因11月装船量级仍高，且11月部分 卸港延后至计入12月，12月进口压力预计年内高位，短期港口库存压力仍大。另外，关注太仓主流仓储企业对伊 朗船的接货意愿。 内地方面，煤头开工仍同期偏高，内地工厂库存小幅回升；MTO方面，阳煤MTO检修中，鲁西MTO低负荷状态； 关注联泓二期MTO年底投产进度。传统下游方面，醋酸开工底部回升，但仍处于偏低位；甲醛淡季负荷小幅回升， MTBE开工继续维持高位。 策略 单边：MA2605谨慎逢低做多套保 现实库存压力仍大，盘面冲高回落 甲醇观点 市场要闻与重要数据 内地方面：Q5500鄂尔多斯动力煤465元/吨（+0），内蒙煤制甲醇生产利润595元/吨（+5）；内地甲醇价格方面，内 ...

碳酸锂去库放缓，下游维持刚需采购 市场分析 2025-12-02，碳酸锂主力合约2605开于96840元/吨，收于96560元/吨，当日收盘价较昨日结算价变化-0.72%。当日 成交量为454290手，持仓量为552239手，前一交易日持仓量543633手，根据SMM现货报价，目前基差为-2240元/ 吨（电碳均价-期货）。当日碳酸锂仓单8992手，较上个交易日变化770手。 碳酸锂现货：根据SMM数据，电池级碳酸锂报价92300-96500元/吨，较前一交易日变化50元/吨，工业级碳酸锂报 价90800-93100元/吨，较前一交易日变化50元/吨。6%锂精矿价格1215美元/吨，较前一日变化-8美元/吨。据SMM 数据，下游材料厂多有长协订单与客供渠道支撑正常生产，散单采购仍以刚需为主，市场成交清淡。目前，上下 游企业之间的年度长协谈判仍在持续，博弈焦点集中于明年的价格系数与采购量级。供应端来看，伴随部分新产 线逐步投产以及下游需求对生产的拉动，预计12月国内碳酸锂产量仍将保持增长，环比增幅约为3%。需求方面， 12月新能源汽车销量仍较好；储能市场则延续供需两旺态势，供应偏紧格局依旧。电芯及正极材料排产在 ...

FICC日报 | 2025-12-03 盘面轮动，股指缩量 市场分析 关注"十五五"主线。宏观方面，国家发改委主任郑栅洁发表署名文章指出，"十五五"规划建议将建设现代化产业 体系这一任务摆在12个领域首位，关键是优化提升传统产业，培育壮大新兴产业和未来产业，加快新能源、新材 料、航空航天、低空经济等战略性新兴产业集群发展。对外方面，中俄举行战略安全磋商，就涉及两国战略安全 利益的重大问题全面、深入沟通，达成新的共识，增进了战略互信。双方就涉日本问题进行战略对表，达成高度 共识。海外方面，特朗普表示，他计划在2026年初公布下一任美联储主席人选。 股指震荡。现货市场，A股三大指数震荡收低，沪指跌0.42%收于3897.71点，创业板指跌0.69%。行业方面，板块 指数跌多涨少，石油石化、轻工制造、家用电器行业领涨，传媒、有色金属、计算机、医药生物行业跌幅居前。 当日沪深两市成交额为1.6万亿元。海外方面，美国三大股指小幅收涨，纳指涨0.59%报23413.67点。 期指减仓。期货市场，基差方面，股指期货贴水程度修复。成交持仓方面，四大期指的成交量和持仓量同步下降。 策略 海外方面，特朗普近期公开表示拟于2026 ...