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二育略有升温,猪价相对稳定
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2026-01-06 03:02
农产品日报 | 2026-01-06 二育略有升温,猪价相对稳定 生猪观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面,昨日收盘鸡蛋 2601合约2992元/500 千克,较前交易日变动+59.00元,幅度+2.01%。现货方面,辽宁地 区鸡蛋现货价格2.84元/斤,较前交易日变动+0.00,现货基差 JD01-152,较前交易日变动-59;山东地区鸡蛋现货 价格3.10元/斤,较前交易日变动+0.00,现货基差 JD01+108,较前交易日变动-59;河北地区鸡蛋现货价格2.87元/ 斤,较前交易日变动+0.07,现货基差 JD01-122,较前交易日变动+51。 市场分析 节后猪价整体维持震荡走势,南北地区略有分化。局地二育情绪仍有所上升,截流部分标猪供应,随情绪好转1月 上旬的生猪价格预计有一定支撑,需关注下旬养殖端的增量出栏情况是否对猪价形成压制。 策略 中性 风险 疫病情况 鸡蛋观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面,昨日收盘生猪 2603合约11660元/吨,较前交易日变动-135.00元/吨,幅度-1.14%。现货方面,河南地区 外三元生猪价格12.74元/公斤,较前交易日变动+0.25元/公斤,现货基差 LH0 ...
2026A股开门红,地缘扰动下贵金属走强
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2026-01-06 03:02
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - After the A - share market opened in 2026, precious metals strengthened under geopolitical disturbances. There are risks of policy expectation swings both at home and abroad. The market showed an overall upward trend on January 5, with the Shanghai Composite Index returning above 4000 points and the ChiNext Index rising nearly 3%. There is a certain divergence in domestic and foreign economic prosperity. The report suggests focusing on commodities such as non - ferrous metals, precious metals and also mentions investment strategies for commodities and stock index futures [2][6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - Policy expectations may swing. The Central Economic Work Conference in December emphasized boosting consumption and anti - "involution" measures. Future price recovery depends on supply - side policies. After important domestic meetings and the Fed's stance adjustment, there are risks of policy expectation swings. The geopolitical situation tightened during the New Year's Day holiday, which may drive up commodity prices. On January 5, the market trended upward, with the Shanghai Composite Index above 4000 points and the ChiNext Index up nearly 3% [2] - There is a divergence in domestic and foreign economic prosperity. Overseas prosperity has declined since October, but China's exports and new orders are still positive. China's November foreign trade growth rebounded, with exports increasing by 5.9% and imports by 1.9% year - on - year. China's December official manufacturing PMI and non - manufacturing PMI were better than expected, but new export orders in the service industry contracted. The US economic data was generally weak [3] Commodity Analysis - Focus on non - ferrous metals and precious metals with high certainty, and look for opportunities for low - valued commodities to make up for losses. The long - term supply shortage in the non - ferrous metal sector remains unresolved, and aluminum is a preferred choice within the sector. In the energy sector, the focus is on future crude oil supply growth after the US "temporarily manages" Venezuela. In the chemical sector, pay attention to the "anti - involution" space of methanol, PTA, etc. For agricultural products, monitor weather and short - term pig diseases. For precious metals, consider buying on dips, but be aware that short - term silver risks have increased [4] Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, consider buying on dips for stock index futures, precious metals, and non - ferrous metals [5] To - do News - The market trended upward on January 5, with the Shanghai Composite Index above 4000 points, the ChiNext Index up nearly 3%, and the CSI A500 Index up over 2%. More than 4100 stocks in Shanghai, Shenzhen and Beijing stock exchanges rose, and the trading volume was 2.57 trillion. China's December RatingDog service industry PMI was 52, remaining in the expansion range but with new export orders contracting. The US launched an air strike on Venezuela, and Trump said he would "manage" Venezuela and involve in the oil industry. OPEC+ will maintain the oil supply unchanged in the first quarter. Some commodity futures prices rose significantly, while others declined [6]
郑棉冲高回落,白糖延续震荡
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2026-01-06 03:02
Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: Neutral to Bullish [2] - Sugar: Neutral [5] - Pulp: Neutral [8] Core Views of the Report - Cotton: The downstream spindle capacity expansion has increased domestic cotton consumption. With high production and consumption expected in the new year and low cotton imports, the supply - demand is expected to be balanced, and there may be a possibility of tight inventory at the end of the year. Considering the possible significant decline in Xinjiang's cotton planting area next year, the medium - to - long - term cotton price is expected to be bullish. However, short - term price increases driven by funds may lead to high - level corrections [2]. - Sugar: The domestic sugar market is facing downward pressure. Although the current valuation is low, the worst period of domestic pressure has not yet arrived, and there may be another bottom - seeking. However, the overall decline is expected to be limited, and the short - to - medium - term sugar price is expected to bottom out in a volatile manner [5]. - Pulp: Overseas supply disruptions continue, and the US dollar quotes are rising. With the pre - Spring Festival inventory replenishment expected, domestic demand may show a mild recovery. The short - term trend is expected to be slightly bullish, but the upward space depends on the actual improvement of demand and the digestion of port inventory [8]. Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the cotton 2605 contract was 14,655 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton (+0.48%) from the previous day. - Spot: The Xinjiang factory price of 3128B cotton was 15,442 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of CF05 + 787; the national average price was 15,615 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of CF05 + 960. - Market Information: As of December 18, 2025, the US had cumulatively signed and exported 1.488 million tons of cotton for the 2025/26 season, accounting for 56.03% of the expected annual export volume, and had shipped 640,000 tons, with a shipment rate of 43.01%. The CCI in India had cumulatively purchased about 2.85 million tons of seed cotton, with 39% from Telangana. Converted to lint, it was about 998,000 tons [1]. Market Analysis - International: The USDA's December adjustment to global cotton supply - demand data was small. In the 25/26 season, global cotton production and demand both decreased, and the ending inventory increased slightly. US cotton production continued to increase slightly, and the inventory pressure increased significantly. With new cotton from the Northern Hemisphere on the market, the short - term supply pressure was high, and global textile consumption was weak. The signing progress of US cotton exports was slow, and the ICE US cotton was expected to be under pressure in the short term. In the medium - to - long - term, US cotton was in a low - valuation range, with limited downward space but unclear upward drivers [1]. - Domestic: In the 25/26 season, domestic cotton production increased significantly. As the sales progress of new cotton accelerated, the hedging resistance on the futures market decreased. On the demand side, with the approaching of the two festivals, yarn mills and traders stocked up actively, but downstream orders declined, finished product sales slowed down, and inventory in the industrial chain, especially in the grey fabric segment, increased significantly, showing a marginal weakening trend [1]. Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the sugar 2605 contract was 5257 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton (+0.11%) from the previous day. - Spot: The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 5330 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of SR05 + 73; the spot price in Kunming, Yunnan was 5200 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of SR05 - 57. - Market Information: As of December 31, 2025, India's sugar production in the 2025/26 season reached 11.897 million tons, a nearly 25% increase from the same period last year. The number of sugar mills in operation was 504, 12 more than the same period last year. As of mid - December 2025, Uttar Pradesh had produced 3.586 million tons of sugar, an increase of 306,000 tons from the same period last year. Maharashtra had 197 sugar mills in operation, with a sugar production of 4.861 million tons, a year - on - year increase of about 62%. Karnataka's sugar production had also increased by about 12% compared with the same period last year [3]. Market Analysis - Raw Sugar: In the 25/26 season, global sugar production was abundant, and the global sugar market was in a definite surplus. In the short term, due to the accelerated harvest in Brazil, limited exports from India, and the just - started harvest in Thailand, the downward space of raw sugar was limited, but the surplus pattern restricted its rebound momentum, and there was no sign of a trend reversal in the short - to - medium - term. In the long - term, there were uncertainties in weather and the sugar - making ratio next year. Some institutions predicted a decline in Brazil's sugar production in the 26/27 season, and Thailand's planting area was expected to shrink, so the long - term sugar price should not be overly pessimistic [4]. - Zhengzhou Sugar: Domestic sugar production was expected to increase for the third consecutive year. Currently, sugar mills in Guangxi had gradually started production, and the supply showed a seasonal increase. On the import side, the profit of out - of - quota imports from Brazil remained high, and imports increased in the second half of the year, increasing the supply pressure. However, the control policy on syrup had become stricter this year, and the import volume of syrup and premixed powder was expected to further decrease next year [5]. Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the pulp 2605 contract was 5530 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton (-0.04%) from the previous day. - Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5590 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of SP05 + 60. The spot price of Russian softwood pulp (Ural and Bratsk) in Shandong was 5175 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of SP05 - 355. - Market Information: The imported wood pulp spot market was mostly stable, with individual prices fluctuating. The main contract of the Shanghai Futures Exchange adjusted slightly downward in a narrow range. Traders in the imported softwood pulp spot market were willing to sell but were reluctant to sell at low prices due to profit considerations, so most prices remained stable, with only individual grades in the Shandong market adjusting by 20 - 50 yuan/ton. In the imported hardwood pulp spot market, traders were actively raising prices due to rising arrival costs and tight available supplies, with high - end prices in the Guangdong market rising by 50 yuan/ton. The imported unbleached pulp market was trading smoothly, with prices remaining stable. The price of imported chemimechanical pulp increased in some areas with slightly tight supplies, with prices in Shandong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai, and Guangdong rising by 50 yuan/ton [6]. Market Analysis - Supply: There had been continuous news of overseas pulp mills shutting down for maintenance. Domtar permanently closed its Crofton paper mill in British Columbia, Canada, with an annual production of 380,000 tons of Lion brand bleached softwood pulp. Finns Group's Rauma pulp mill with a 650,000 - ton softwood pulp capacity temporarily shut down on December 15 and was expected to gradually resume production on January 7 next year. In addition, its subsidiary Finnforest was preparing for a major production cut at the Joutseno pulp mill in 2026 [7]. - Demand: In November, the wood pulp inventory at European ports continued to decline, and demand continued to improve. In China, although a large amount of finished paper production capacity was put into operation this year, the terminal effective demand was always insufficient, and downstream paper mills were cautious in raw material procurement, with low procurement willingness, resulting in high port inventory. However, port inventory had been declining in recent weeks, and the continuous expansion of downstream paper production capacity next year would create marginal incremental demand for pulp raw materials, which might support the pulp price to gradually stabilize [7].
特朗普意图重振委内瑞拉石油行业
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2026-01-06 03:01
原油日报 | 2026-01-06 特朗普意图重振委内瑞拉石油行业 市场要闻与重要数据 1、 纽约商品交易所2月交货的轻质原油期货价格上涨1.00美元,收于每桶58.32美元,涨幅为1.74%;3月交货的伦 敦布伦特原油期货价格上涨1.01美元,收于每桶61.76美元,涨幅为1.66%。SC原油主力合约收涨0.30%,报428元/ 桶。(来源:Bloomberg) 5、 美国能源部长赖特计划本周与石油行业高管会面,商讨如何在委内瑞拉总统马杜罗被"拘捕"后重振委内瑞拉的 能源产业。本周,赖特将参加在迈阿密举行的"高盛能源、清洁技术及公用事业大会",雪佛龙、康菲石油公司以 及其他公司的高管也将出席此次会议。雪佛龙是目前唯一仍在委内瑞拉运营的大型石油公司。美国总统特朗普此 前誓言要"重振"委内瑞拉的石油产业,该国多年来一直缺乏投资和管理,导致石油产量大幅下降,而该国拥有全 球最大的原油储量。特朗普估计,这一过程将需要数十亿美元的资金,但目前尚不清楚外国企业是否会愿意承担 这样的任务以及其背后所蕴含的风险。(来源:Bloomberg) 投资逻辑 特朗普意图重振委内瑞拉石油行业,希望美国石油公司重返委内,但由于委内重油 ...
聚酯负荷下降有限,关注成本端
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2026-01-06 03:01
Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a neutral rating to PX/PTA/PF/PR [4] Core Viewpoints - The cost side of the crude oil market has obvious long - short differences, and geopolitical factors put pressure on oil prices. PX supply is expected to increase, with many overseas restart plans and more imports from arbitrage. TA has a de - stocking balance sheet in December and limited inventory accumulation pressure in January. The polyester start - up rate is 90.8% (up 0.4% month - on - month), but the downstream weaving load is declining. PF has weak demand and increasing inventory, while PR's processing fee is expected to fluctuate in a range [1][2][3] - For the strategy, in the short term, PX, PTA, PF, and PR are rated neutral. In the medium term, after a pullback, it is advisable to go long on a hedging basis at low prices [4] Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The report includes charts on TA and PX's main contract trends, basis, and inter - period spreads, as well as PTA's East China spot basis and short - fiber basis [9][11][14] Upstream Profits and Spreads - Charts show PX processing fees, PTA spot processing fees, South Korea's xylene isomerization profit, and South Korea's STDP selective disproportionation profit [17][19] International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - It covers toluene's US - Asia spread, toluene's South Korea FOB - Japan naphtha CFR spread, and PTA's export profit [24][26] Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - The report presents the start - up loads of PTA in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as PX loads in China and Asia [27][30][32] Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Charts display PTA's weekly social inventory, PX's monthly social inventory, PTA's total warehouse receipts + forecast volume, and various warehouse receipt inventories of PTA, PX, and PF [37][39][40] Downstream Polyester Load - It includes data on filament and short - fiber sales, polyester load, various filament loads, polyester bottle - chip load, and related factory inventory days, as well as the start - up rates of Jiangsu and Zhejiang's weaving, texturing, and dyeing industries [47][49][58] PF Detailed Data - There are details on polyester staple fiber load, factory equity inventory days, 1.4D physical and equity inventories, recycled cotton - type staple fiber load, and the start - up rates and profits of pure polyester yarn and polyester - cotton yarn [69][76][79] PR Fundamental Detailed Data - It shows polyester bottle - chip load, bottle - chip factory inventory days, spot and export processing fees, export profit, and various month - on - month spreads of bottle - chips [86][88][97]
市场谨慎观望,钢价震荡运行
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2026-01-06 02:43
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views - The steel market is in a state of cautious wait - and - see, with steel prices oscillating. Building materials are in a state of low production, consumption, and inventory, while plates are constrained by high inventory. After the New Year's Day, the winter storage market for building materials and potential steel mill restarts for plates should be monitored [1]. - The iron ore market shows a significant decline in global shipments. The supply - demand contradiction is intensifying, and the inventory is increasing. Although the short - term price is in high - level oscillation, it faces downward risk once negotiations are finalized [3]. - The coking coal and coke market has a relatively loose supply - demand situation, with a weakening oscillation trend. After the New Year's Day, the demand for coke may improve with steel mill restarts, while coking coal prices may remain weak before winter storage and could be further adjusted after [5][6]. - The thermal coal market sees a recovery in production area supply, and the coal price is stabilizing in the short term. In the long - term, the supply is still abundant, and non - power coal consumption and restocking should be watched [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Market Analysis - Futures and spot: The steel futures main contract declined slightly yesterday, and the spot prices generally fell, with rebar down 10 - 20 yuan/ton and hot - rolled coil down 20 - 30 yuan/ton [1]. - Supply and demand logic: Building materials have a stable supply - demand situation with limited price fluctuations. After New Year's Day, the winter storage market will intensify the game between reality and expectation. Plates are restricted by high inventory, and the short - term inventory pressure is difficult to resolve due to potential mill restarts [1]. Strategy - Unilateral: Oscillation; Cross - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Futures - spot: None; Options: None [2] Iron Ore Market Analysis - Futures and spot: The iron ore futures price oscillated. The prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties increased slightly, but steel mills' procurement intention was low. Global iron ore shipments dropped significantly, with a 12.6% MoM decrease to 3214 million tons, while the 45 - port arrivals increased by 6% MoM to 2756 million tons [3]. - Supply and demand logic: The supply - demand contradiction is intensifying, and inventory is increasing. The market gives a high valuation to iron ore prices, but there is a downward risk once negotiations are settled. In the short term, the price will remain high - level oscillating [3]. Strategy - Unilateral: Oscillation; Cross - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Futures - spot: None; Options: None [4] Coking Coal and Coke Market Analysis - Futures and spot: The main coking coal and coke futures contracts declined yesterday. The coking profit improved, and the demand from steel mills' blast furnaces increased slightly after New Year's Day. Coal mine production resumed, and the Mongolian coal customs clearance volume recovered rapidly, with the Mongolian 5 raw coal price at around 960 - 980 yuan/ton [5][6]. - Supply and demand logic: The demand for coke may improve after New Year's Day, and it will remain oscillating in the short term. Coking coal supply and demand are relatively loose, and its price will remain weakly oscillating before winter storage and could be adjusted further after [6]. Strategy - Coking coal: Oscillation; Coke: Oscillation; Cross - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Futures - spot: None; Options: None [7] Thermal Coal Market Analysis - Futures and spot: In the production areas, coal prices fluctuated, and the group's purchased - in price and port price stabilized and rebounded. In the ports, the inventory decreased, driving a short - term price increase. The import market was inactive, with limited actual transactions [8]. - Supply and demand logic: The daily consumption of thermal coal is still low, and the coal price is oscillating with the recovery of production area supply. In the long - term, the supply is abundant [8]. Strategy - Not provided in the content
华泰期货流动性日报-20260106
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2026-01-06 02:27
Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The report presents the market liquidity situation on January 5, 2026, including trading volume, holding amount, trading - holding ratio, and their changes compared to the previous trading day for different sectors such as stock index, treasury bond, basic metal, precious metal, energy - chemical, agricultural product, and black building materials [1][2]. 3. Summary by Directory I. Plate Liquidity - The report shows the trading volume, holding amount, and trading - holding ratio of various sectors on January 5, 2026, along with their changes compared to the previous trading day. The sectors include stock index, treasury bond, basic metal, precious metal, energy - chemical, agricultural product, and black building materials [1][2]. II. Stock Index Plate - On January 5, 2026, the trading volume of the stock index plate was 711.329 billion yuan, a +21.38% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 1502.686 billion yuan, a +7.49% change; the trading - holding ratio was 47.94% [1]. III. Treasury Bond Plate - On January 5, 2026, the trading volume of the treasury bond plate was 367.150 billion yuan, a - 9.95% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 786.980 billion yuan, a +1.35% change; the trading - holding ratio was 45.96% [1]. IV. Basic Metal and Precious Metal (Metal Plate) - On January 5, 2026, the trading volume of the basic metal plate was 584.817 billion yuan, a - 36.94% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 736.182 billion yuan, a +6.76% change; the trading - holding ratio was 88.15%. The trading volume of the precious metal plate was 483.987 billion yuan, a - 67.29% change; the holding amount was 485.009 billion yuan, a +0.53% change; the trading - holding ratio was 133.56% [1]. V. Energy - Chemical Plate - On January 5, 2026, the trading volume of the energy - chemical plate was 366.420 billion yuan, a +0.31% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 427.998 billion yuan, a +4.37% change; the trading - holding ratio was 82.22% [1]. VI. Agricultural Product Plate - On January 5, 2026, the trading volume of the agricultural product plate was 268.712 billion yuan, a +14.83% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 553.692 billion yuan, a +2.60% change; the trading - holding ratio was 42.04% [1]. VII. Black Building Materials Plate - On January 5, 2026, the trading volume of the black building materials plate was 144.749 billion yuan, a - 19.11% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 298.128 billion yuan, a +3.23% change; the trading - holding ratio was 47.99% [2].
华泰期货股指期权日报-20260105
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2026-01-05 05:57
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - No clear core viewpoints presented in the given content 3. Summary by Directory Option Trading Volume - On December 31, 2025, the trading volume of SSE 50 ETF options was 581,500 contracts; CSI 300 ETF options (Shanghai market) was 696,100 contracts; CSI 500 ETF options (Shanghai market) was 1,105,100 contracts; Shenzhen 100 ETF options was 36,000 contracts; ChiNext ETF options was 1,264,700 contracts; SSE 50 index options was 26,500 contracts; CSI 300 index options was 98,000 contracts; and CSI 1000 options was 221,900 contracts [1]. - The near - day trading volume details of index ETF options on another table show that the total trading volume of SSE 50 ETF options was 600,100 contracts, CSI 300 ETF options (Shanghai market) was 789,000 contracts, CSI 500 ETF options (Shanghai market) was 1,053,200 contracts, Shenzhen 100 ETF options was 35,000 contracts, ChiNext ETF options was 1,264,700 contracts, SSE 50 index options was 26,500 contracts, CSI 300 index options was 103,200 contracts, and CSI 1000 index options was 221,900 contracts [19]. Option PCR - The turnover PCR of SSE 50 ETF options was reported at 0.80 with a month - on - month change of - 0.01; the position PCR was reported at 0.92 with a month - on - month change of - 0.03. Similar data is provided for other options including CSI 300 ETF options (Shanghai market), CSI 500 ETF options (Shanghai market), Shenzhen 100 ETF options, ChiNext ETF options, SSE 50 index options, CSI 300 index options, and CSI 1000 index options [2][34]. Option VIX - The VIX of SSE 50 ETF options was reported at 14.43% with a month - on - month change of - 0.37%; the VIX of CSI 300 ETF options (Shanghai market) was reported at 16.34% with a month - on - month change of - 0.17%. Similar data is provided for other options including CSI 500 ETF options (Shanghai market), Shenzhen 100 ETF options, ChiNext ETF options, SSE 50 index options, CSI 300 index options, and CSI 1000 index options [3][47].
华泰期货流动性日报-20260105
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2026-01-05 02:16
流动性日报 | 2026-01-05 市场流动性概况 2025-12-31,股指板块成交5860.26亿元,较上一交易日变动+0.06%;持仓金额13980.17亿元,较上一交易日变动 -3.70%;成交持仓比为42.16%。 国债板块成交4077.39亿元,较上一交易日变动+18.39%;持仓金额7765.03亿元,较上一交易日变动-1.10%;成交 持仓比为52.38%。 基本金属板块成交9274.03亿元,较上一交易日变动-14.95%;持仓金额6895.97亿元,较上一交易日变动-1.50%;成 交持仓比为138.10%。 贵金属板块成交14795.39亿元,较上一交易日变动-13.36%;持仓金额4824.61亿元,较上一交易日变动-4.18%;成 交持仓比为452.11%。 能源化工板块成交3652.96亿元,较上一交易日变动-16.45%;持仓金额4100.90亿元,较上一交易日变动-3.98%;成 交持仓比为86.06%。 农产品板块成交2340.10亿元,较上一交易日变动-12.35%;持仓金额5396.48亿元,较上一交易日变动-2.74%;成交 持仓比为41.22%。 黑色建材板块成交1 ...
宏观景气度系列十二:12月制造业景气回升
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2026-01-05 01:30
期货研究报告|宏观数据 2026-01-05 12 月制造业景气回升 ——宏观景气度系列十二 研究院 徐闻宇 xuwenyu@htfc.com 从业资格号:F0299877 投资咨询号:Z0011454 投资咨询业务资格: 证监许可【2011】1289 号 宏观事件 12 月中国制造业 PMI 为 50.1(+0.9pct MoM);非制造业 PMI 为 50.2(+0.7pct MoM)。 核心观点 ■ 制造业 PMI 供给:小幅改善。12 月生产指数为 51.7,较上月变化 1.7 。供应商配送时间指数为 50.2, 较上月变化 0.1 。 需求:外需降幅收窄。12 月新订单指数为 50.8,较上月变化 1.6 。新出口订单指数为 49,较上月变化 1.4 。在手订单指数为 46,较上月变化 0.5 。 供求平衡:仍待改善。12 月供需指数(需求-供给)为-0.9 ,较上月变化-0.1 ,较去年 同期变化 0.2 ,较过去三年均值变化 0.2 。 价格:盈利收缩。12月原材料价格指数为 53.1,较上月变化-0.5 。出厂价格指数为 48.9, 较上月变化 0.7 。出厂价格-原材料价格差值为-4.2 , ...