Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Fuyao Glass [2] Core Viewpoints - Fuyao Glass is a global leader in the automotive glass industry, with a market share of approximately 37% as of 2025, demonstrating strong resilience and growth potential [6][29] - The company focuses on high-value products, benefiting from the "new four modernizations" in the automotive sector, which drives an upward trend in average selling price (ASP) [6][31] - Fuyao's vertical integration strategy enhances cost control and allows for aggressive capacity expansion, positioning the company to capture global market share [6][38] - The company offers both high growth and high dividend yields, making it a rare quality asset in the market [6][38] - Profit forecasts for 2025-2027 indicate net profits of 98.31 billion, 113.58 billion, and 132.42 billion yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 17.12, 14.82, and 12.71 times, respectively [6] Summary by Sections 1. Automotive Glass Leader with Strong Resilience and Growth Alpha - Fuyao Glass has established a strong competitive moat over its 40 years of development, focusing on the automotive glass sector and achieving significant market share [15][16] - The company has maintained a high revenue concentration in automotive glass, with 91.1% of total revenue coming from this segment in 2025H1 [25][29] 2. Increasing Penetration of New Energy Vehicles and High-Value Products Driving Growth - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles has increased significantly, with high-value products like panoramic roofs and HUDs contributing to revenue growth [43][46] - The ASP of Fuyao's products is expected to continue rising due to the increasing share of high-value products, which accounted for 52.2% of sales by 2025Q3 [46][70] 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that Fuyao Glass is well-positioned for future growth, supported by its strong market position, innovative product offerings, and robust financial performance [6][38]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the silicon-based anode industry, highlighting the breakthrough in CVD technology and the increasing mainstream adoption of silicon-carbon anodes [1]. Core Insights - Silicon-based anodes are identified as the next-generation anode material for lithium batteries, addressing the performance limitations of traditional graphite anodes, which are nearing their performance limits [4][19]. - The demand for silicon-based anodes is expected to accelerate with the promotion of new battery technologies, particularly in the electric vehicle sector, where consumer expectations for range and fast charging are rising [4][30]. - The industrialization of silicon-based anodes is approaching a critical turning point, driven by advancements in CVD technology, which enhances performance metrics such as capacity and cycle life [4][44]. Summary by Sections 1. Silicon-based Anodes as a New Direction - Lithium battery anode materials are categorized into carbon-based and non-carbon-based materials, with silicon-based anodes emerging as a key focus due to their high theoretical capacity and fast charging capabilities [18][21]. - The theoretical capacity of silicon-based materials is significantly higher than that of traditional graphite, reaching up to 4200 mAh/g, which is over ten times that of graphite [22][25]. 2. New Battery Promotion Accelerating Demand - The application of silicon-based anodes is expanding into the power battery sector, with major automotive manufacturers like Tesla and BYD integrating these materials into new models [29][30]. - The compatibility of silicon-based anodes with solid-state batteries is highlighted, as they are expected to meet the high energy density requirements of next-generation batteries [32][33]. 3. Approaching Industrialization Turning Point - CVD technology is recognized as a breakthrough in the production of silicon-carbon anodes, effectively addressing issues such as volume expansion and enhancing overall stability [44][45]. - Over 30 companies are competing in the silicon-based anode market, with leading firms like BETTERRY and PULITECH making significant advancements in CVD technology [46][47]. 4. Beneficiaries in the Silicon-based Anode Supply Chain - The report outlines the key players in the silicon-based anode supply chain, emphasizing the importance of companies that can leverage CVD technology and lead in production capabilities [48].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the modern coal chemical industry, indicating an expectation that the industry index will outperform the market index by over 10% in the next six months [1]. Core Insights - The modern coal chemical industry aligns with national strategic needs and promotes industrial cluster development, with several supportive policies introduced in recent years [6][21]. - The domestic dependence on imported polyethylene resin has decreased, with the import dependency dropping to 29% as of November 2025, indicating a growing capacity for domestic production to replace imports [29]. - The industry is currently in a development phase characterized by modern coal chemical technologies, which are increasingly being adopted globally due to fluctuating oil prices [14][18]. Summary by Sections 1. Overview of Modern Coal Chemical Industry - Coal chemical processes convert coal into gas, liquid, and solid products, including clean energy and basic chemical raw materials [13]. - The industry is primarily located in resource-rich regions such as Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi, Ningxia, Shanxi, and Xinjiang, with major coal chemical bases established [13]. 2. Factors Promoting Healthy and Sustainable Industry Development - A series of policies have been implemented to promote industrial cluster development, including the establishment of four modern coal chemical industry demonstration zones [21][24]. - Domestic companies are actively advancing project construction and capacity release, with significant projects like Baofeng Energy's coal-to-olefins project progressing well [28]. - The tightening of macroeconomic controls and resource constraints is expected to stabilize the competitive landscape of the industry [32][33]. 3. Investment Recommendations and Key Company Analysis - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Baofeng Energy (600989), Hualu Hengsheng (600426), and Luxi Chemical (000830) due to their strategic positioning and growth potential [35]. - Baofeng Energy is noted for its advantageous location and strong technological capabilities, with ongoing projects aimed at enhancing production efficiency and reducing costs [37][38]. - Hualu Hengsheng is recognized for its cost control and innovative technologies that support sustainable development [42]. - Luxi Chemical is highlighted for its digital platform applications and strong market presence in export volumes [40][41].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Kingsoft Office (688111) [1] Core Insights - Kingsoft Office, as a leading domestic office software provider, has experienced accelerated growth in performance, driven by its innovative AI applications and alignment with the national strategy for domestic software replacement [4][11] - The company has successfully integrated AI into its product offerings, particularly with the WPS AI, which has evolved to version 3.0, marking a significant shift towards intelligent collaborative tools in the office software sector [4][46] - The report highlights the strong growth in revenue and profit for Q3 2025, with a notable year-on-year increase in revenue of 25.33% and net profit of 35.42%, indicating a robust performance compared to earlier quarters [4][21] Summary by Sections 1. Domestic Office Software Leader with Steady Growth - Kingsoft Office has developed a comprehensive application service system that integrates cloud, collaboration, and AI office capabilities, providing efficient and intelligent office experiences for users [11] - The company has a strong product matrix, including WPS Office, WPS 365, and WPS AI, serving users across over 220 countries [11][14] 2. AI Agent Enters Explosive Growth Phase - The report notes a significant increase in the consumption of AI tokens, indicating that AI has entered a phase of large-scale application, with domestic markets showing a 363% growth in token usage [29][35] - Kingsoft Office is positioned to benefit from this trend, leveraging its AI capabilities to enhance user efficiency and drive business growth [29][38] 3. Dual-Drive of AI and Domestic Software Replacement - The company has strategically positioned itself to capitalize on the domestic software replacement trend, actively participating in government and enterprise tenders for domestic office software [4][46] - The WPS AI product has been upgraded to version 3.0, enhancing its capabilities and user interaction, thus redefining the office software landscape in China [46][50] 4. Financial Performance and Growth Drivers - For the first three quarters of 2025, Kingsoft Office reported a revenue of 41.78 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.21%, with net profit growing by 13.32% [21] - The company’s core business segments, including WPS 365 and WPS software, have shown strong growth, particularly in the government and enterprise sectors, driven by increased demand for domestic software solutions [24][28] 5. Future Outlook - The report projects that Kingsoft Office will continue to benefit from the growth of AI and domestic software initiatives, with expected EPS of 4.27, 5.06, and 6.04 yuan for 2025 to 2027, corresponding to PE ratios of 71, 60, and 51 times respectively [4][46]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the copper-clad laminate industry, indicating an expectation that the industry index will outperform the market index by more than 10% over the next six months [96]. Core Insights - The copper-clad laminate market is expected to recover in 2024, with global sales projected to reach $15.013 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 17.90%. This recovery is attributed to the resurgence in consumer electronics demand and increased requirements for high-end copper-clad laminates driven by AI computing power [6][27]. - A new wave of price increases is anticipated in the copper-clad laminate sector, driven by rising raw material costs, high demand from downstream PCB manufacturers, and the concentrated market share of laminate manufacturers, which grants them significant pricing power [6][47]. - AI is driving the high-end product development in the copper-clad laminate market, with expectations for increased value as new platforms from companies like NVIDIA adopt advanced materials [65][71]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Recovery and Applications - Copper-clad laminates are widely used in various sectors, including consumer electronics, computers, communications, and automotive electronics. The market is set to recover in 2024, reversing a two-year decline [14][27]. 2. Price Increase Trends - Historical data shows that the copper-clad laminate industry has experienced two major price increase cycles in the past decade, primarily driven by rising raw material costs and strong end-user demand. Current trends indicate that manufacturers are already implementing price hikes due to increased costs of copper and other materials [38][44][55]. 3. AI-Driven High-End Product Development - The demand for high-performance copper-clad laminates is increasing due to AI computing requirements. The introduction of new materials, such as M8.5+ and M9, is expected to significantly enhance product value and performance [65][71]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on two main investment lines: companies benefiting from the price increases of conventional copper-clad laminates and those with high-end laminate or electronic copper foil product reserves. Key companies identified include Shengyi Technology, Nanya New Material, Huazheng New Material, Jin'an Guoji, Defu Technology, and Tongguan Copper Foil [93].

Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3965.12, showing a slight decrease of 0.00% with a drop of 0.16 points [2] - The Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.49%, closing at 13604.07, with a rise of 66.97 points [2] - The CSI 300 Index rose by 0.26%, closing at 4651.28, with an increase of 11.91 points [2] - The ChiNext Index saw a gain of 0.63%, closing at 3242.90, with an increase of 20.29 points [2] - The STAR 50 Index increased by 1.01%, closing at 1359.87, with a rise of 13.55 points [2] - The North Exchange 50 Index decreased by 0.40%, closing at 1450.64, with a drop of 5.81 points [2] Sector Rankings - The top five sectors by growth included: - Oil and Petrochemicals with a rise of 2.63% - Automotive with an increase of 1.35% - Non-ferrous Metals up by 1.31% - Machinery Equipment rising by 1.29% - Comprehensive sector up by 1.01% [3] - The sectors with the largest declines included: - Retail down by 1.56% - Real Estate down by 1.22% - Utilities down by 1.14% - Social Services down by 1.13% - Construction Decoration down by 1.11% [3] Market Outlook - The market showed a positive trend with the Shanghai Composite Index achieving a "ten consecutive days of gains" [4] - The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 2.14 trillion, an increase of 32 billion from the previous trading day [6] - The Shanghai Composite Index found strong support around 3945 points, closing near the pressure zone at 3965.12 points, indicating a strong technical resistance [6] - The report suggests that the recent market rally is driven by a marginal easing of liquidity tightening expectations, leading to a global risk asset recovery [6] - Key sectors to focus on include dividends, TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications), and consumer sectors [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the industry, indicating a positive outlook for the long-term growth potential of China's pig farming sector [3][50]. Core Insights - China is the world's largest producer and consumer of pigs and pork, with a projected pig production of 705 million heads in 2025, accounting for 54.7% of global production [3][12]. - The report forecasts a gradual decline in pig supply in 2026, driven by a reduction in the breeding sow population, which is currently at a historically high level [3][32]. - The profitability of pig farming is expected to gradually improve as pig prices rebound and feed costs remain low [3][47][48]. Summary by Sections 1. China's Position in the Global Pork Market - China leads the world in both pig and pork production, with 2025 projections indicating a pork production of 57 million tons, representing 48.9% of global output [3][12]. - The country has a low reliance on pork imports, with an expected import volume of 1.3 million tons in 2025, only 2.2% of its total consumption [3][27]. 2. Breeding Sow Capacity and Supply Outlook - The breeding sow population is undergoing a gradual reduction, with a current stock of 39.57 million heads, down 3.01% from the previous year [3][32]. - The report anticipates a gradual decline in pig supply in 2026, which may lead to a recovery in pig prices [3][34]. 3. Industry Scale and Growth Potential - The scale of pig farming in China is increasing, with over 70% of production now coming from large-scale farms [3][50]. - The top 26 enterprises accounted for approximately 33% of total pig output in 2024, indicating a significant concentration in the industry [3][50]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report highlights leading companies with cost and scale advantages, such as Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and New Hope Liuhe, as potential investment opportunities [3][50].

Group 1 - The semiconductor industry is entering a new upcycle driven by AI, with global semiconductor revenue expected to reach approximately $975.46 billion in 2026, a 26.3% increase from 2025 [12][16] - Memory chips, particularly DRAM and NAND, are projected to be the core drivers of this cycle, with memory chip sales expected to grow by 27.8% in 2025 and 39.4% in 2026 [14][18] - The demand structure for memory chips is shifting from consumer electronics to dual drivers of "smart cars and data centers," with the automotive storage market expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of about 21% from 2024 to 2030 [21][24] Group 2 - China's semiconductor equipment spending is expected to lead globally, with a projected $94 billion in spending from 2026 to 2028, accounting for 25% of global spending [50][54] - The demand for etching and thin film deposition equipment is expected to rise significantly as the industry transitions to 3D NAND technology, which reduces reliance on photolithography [61][66] - Lam Research indicates that the serviceable market for equipment per wafer for 3D DRAM and NAND will increase to 1.7 times and 1.8 times, respectively, compared to previous technologies [66]

Investment Strategy Overview - The transportation industry is closely linked to the macroeconomic environment, with a weak overall performance in 2025, underperforming the CSI 300 index. Key segments like railways and highways have weakened due to style shifts, while logistics, aviation, and shipping have seen some support in the second half of the year from anti-involution and external demand factors, but still lag behind the market index. Looking ahead to 2026, domestic demand is expected to improve driven by anti-involution and major infrastructure projects, with recommendations to focus on (1) improved domestic express delivery competition and benefiting bulk supply chains from upstream price recovery, (2) growth in business and leisure demand potentially returning aviation airports to profitability, and (3) the high prosperity cycle of oil transportation [5][72]. 2025 Review - The transportation industry index showed a stable performance, with a cumulative increase of 1.55% as of December 29, 2025, but underperformed the CSI 300 index. The performance of sub-sectors varied, with aviation airports, shipping ports, railways, and logistics showing cumulative changes of 9.74%, 6.56%, -12.86%, and 6.34% respectively, all underperforming the CSI 300 index [13][14]. Aviation Sector - The aviation supply-demand landscape continues to improve, with aircraft utilization recovering to high levels. Domestic civil aviation demand has been steadily increasing, with passenger volume reaching new highs in the second half of 2025. The average daily utilization of aircraft in China was 8.7 hours as of November 2025, nearing pre-pandemic levels [18][21]. - The average ticket price has stabilized, with a peak passenger load factor of 87.5% in August 2025. The market supply-demand situation is tight, and further tightening could boost ticket prices [23][24]. - The supply side faces challenges with aircraft manufacturers struggling to restore production capacity, with Boeing and Airbus delivering significantly fewer aircraft than pre-pandemic levels. As of 2024, Boeing delivered 348 commercial aircraft, while Airbus delivered 766, both below their respective 2019 levels [25][26]. - The demand side is supported by policy initiatives that have revitalized business activities, with business line passenger volume increasing year-on-year in the first eight months of 2025 [34][36]. - Cost pressures are alleviated by declining oil prices, with WTI futures at $56.74 per barrel as of December 26, 2025, down 54.13% from peak levels. The strengthening of the RMB also reduces dollar-denominated debt burdens for airlines [40][43]. Oil Transportation Sector - The oil transportation industry is currently in a high prosperity cycle, with oil prices influenced by demand fluctuations and unexpected events. The BDTI index has seen an uptick, indicating potential for improved industry conditions [46][47]. - Short-term demand is driven by significant U.S. strategic petroleum reserve replenishment needs, while long-term demand is expected to stabilize globally. The IEA forecasts a growth of 2.5 million barrels per day in global oil demand from 2024 to 2030 [49][51]. - The supply side is characterized by tight compliance capacity, with sanctions on shadow fleets leading to a reduction in compliant shipping capacity. This is expected to gradually elevate oil transportation rates [56][57]. Bulk Supply Chain Sector - The bulk supply chain sector is transitioning from traditional trading and logistics models to integrated service provider models, enhancing resource control and operational efficiency. Leading companies are learning from international experiences to improve their market positions [60][63]. - The sector is currently fragmented, with a low market share for leading firms (CR5 at around 5%). As domestic companies consolidate, there is potential for increased market share and profitability [63][64]. - The anti-involution trend is expected to stabilize the PPI, benefiting bulk supply chains as they recover from price declines. The sector is poised to benefit from price rebounds and improved demand conditions [65][66]. Investment Recommendations - Maintain a market-weight rating for the transportation industry, with a focus on improving domestic demand and sector recovery in 2026. Recommended stocks include China National Aviation (601111), Southern Airlines (600029), and Xiamen Xiangyu (600057) [72][74].

S0340513040002 电话：0769-22119462 邮箱：whm2@dgzq.com.cn 2025 年 12 月 30 日 生猪养殖行业深度报告 投资要点： 本报告的风险等级为中高风险。 本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读末页声明。 资料来源：同花顺 iFinD，东莞证券研 究所 超配（维持） 关注产能去化 布局盈利拐点 深 农林牧渔行业 | 图 | 27：SW 生猪养殖板块单季营收同比增速（%） 12 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 图 | 28：SW 生猪养殖板块单季归母净利润同比增速（%） 12 | | | 图 29：SW | 生猪养殖板块单季度毛利率净利率（%） 13 | | | 图 | 30：SW 生猪养殖板块单季度期间费用率（%） 13 | | | 图 | 31：我国生猪养殖年出栏户数占比（%） | 14 | | 图 | 32：我国生猪行业规模化程度（%） | 14 | 推荐 分析师：魏红梅 SAC 执业证书编号： 我国是全球最大的生猪及猪肉产需国。根据美国农业部2025年4 月份《牲畜和家 ...