灰犀牛与反脆弱 证券研究报告 政策与大类资产配置月观察 海内外政策要闻 政治局会议研究下半年经济工作。中共中央政治局7月30日召开会议，分析研究 当前经济形势和经济工作。会议认为，今年以来，在以习近平同志为核心的党中 央坚强领导下，各地区各部门积极作为、攻坚克难，加紧实施更加积极有为的宏 观政策，我国经济运行稳中有进，高质量发展取得新成效。会议强调，要落实落 细更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，充分释放政策效应。 国常会通过《关于深入实施"人工智能+"行动的意见》。会议指出，当前人工智 能技术加速迭代演进，要深入实施"人工智能+"行动，大力推进人工智能规模 化商业化应用，充分发挥我国产业体系完备、市场规模大、应用场景丰富等优势， 推动人工智能在经济社会发展各领域加快普及、深度融合，形成以创新带应用、 以应用促创新的良性循环。 特朗普签署行政令落地新一轮"对等关税"。当地时间7月31日，美国总统特朗普 签署行政令，拟对尚未与美方达成协议的国家或地区（包括加拿大、巴西等）征 收10%至41%不等的对等关税，并明确所有关税将自2025年8月7日正式生效。 国内外政策导向分析 上周（7.28-8.1）海外政策聚 ...

Industry Rating - The industry rating is maintained as "Outperform" [1] Core Insights - The motorcycle export market has significant potential, with overseas sales space being over ten times that of the domestic market. The core markets are Europe and Latin America, while the U.S. market accounts for less than 1% of the global total capacity. Domestic brands have undergone a qualitative transformation in product strength over the past five years, with overseas market share currently below 5%, expected to accelerate from 1 to 10 [2][3] Summary by Sections Global Market Overview - The global motorcycle market has a total capacity of 61.8 million units, with 3.59 million units in the 250cc+ segment, resulting in a penetration rate of 5.8% [4][5] European Market - The European motorcycle market is approximately 1.84 million units, with a focus on high-capacity models. The 250cc+ segment is projected to reach 1.08 million units in 2024, with a penetration rate close to 60%. The market is currently dominated by Japanese and European brands, but Chinese brands are expected to gain market share due to competitive pricing and improved product quality [6][30][36] North American Market - The North American motorcycle market has a total capacity of about 6.88 million units, with approximately 500,000 units in the U.S. market, primarily favoring models over 600cc. The 250cc+ segment is estimated to account for 90% of the market, with limited participation from Chinese companies [6][30] Latin American Market - The Latin American motorcycle market has a capacity of 6.26 million units, with a significant demand for larger displacement motorcycles due to geographical and climatic factors. The 250cc+ segment is estimated to have a penetration rate of 8%, with projected sales of around 500,000 units [6][30] Asian Market - The Asian motorcycle market has a total capacity of 47.55 million units, with a 250cc+ penetration rate of 2.8%. The demand for larger displacement motorcycles is expected to grow, particularly in regions with a large motorcycle base [6][30] Domestic Brand Performance - The three listed companies, Chunfeng, Longxin, and Qianjiang, have a combined overseas market share of less than 5% in the 250cc+ segment. Their export volumes for 2024 are projected to be 6.7, 5.3, and 4.0 million units respectively, showing significant year-on-year growth [11][15][29] Competitive Landscape - The competitive landscape for 250cc+ motorcycles is characterized by rapid growth in exports, with domestic brands expected to increase their market share significantly. The current overseas market share for Chunfeng, Longxin, and Qianjiang is 2.08%, 1.65%, and 1.24% respectively, indicating substantial room for growth [15][29]

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [7] Core Viewpoints - The recent shift in the national stance on compliance antimony export controls since July is expected to alleviate the primary factors suppressing antimony prices over the past three months, leading to a potential price increase driven by marginal demand recovery [1][4]. - Antimony prices have experienced four phases of decline and stabilization since H2 2024, with export demand being a key variable influencing price movements [2][14]. - The crackdown on smuggling has made significant progress, and the easing of antimony export management is anticipated to restore export volumes [3][24]. Summary by Sections Antimony Price Review - The strength of export demand has become a critical factor in determining antimony prices since the implementation of export controls in September 2024 [13]. - Antimony prices fell from 161,000 CNY/ton to approximately 140,000 CNY/ton between September and November 2024 due to reduced export demand and capacity cuts in photovoltaic glass [14]. - A recovery in export demand and photovoltaic installations from February to April 2025 led to a rapid price increase from 144,000 CNY/ton to 236,000 CNY/ton [14]. Progress in Smuggling Crackdown - The significant price gap between domestic and international markets has stimulated smuggling activities, with the price difference expanding from 28,000 CNY/ton to approximately 200,000 CNY/ton post-export controls [3][19]. - The Chinese government has initiated a special action to combat strategic mineral smuggling, resulting in a drastic decline in export volumes from 800 tons/month to 225 tons and 138 tons in May and June 2025, respectively [3][26]. - The easing of export management in July 2025 is expected to enhance compliance and restore export volumes, with expectations of recovery in August and September [4][24]. Data Analysis - The marginal supply-demand balance for antimony is projected to reverse in Q3 2025, potentially driving prices upward [5][27]. - The analysis indicates that August and September 2025 may serve as a turning point for marginal demand, with expected exports recovering to 500 tons and 900 tons, respectively [30]. - The marginal demand is anticipated to shift from -82 tons in August to +249 tons, continuing to improve in September [30]. Investment Recommendations - It is recommended to pay attention to related stocks in the antimony sector, including Hunan Gold, Huaxi Nonferrous, Huayu Mining, and Yuguang Gold Lead [31].

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [6] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights three significant events in early August that may drive gold prices upward: a downward revision of non-farm employment data, a key resignation at the Federal Reserve, and political interference in employment statistics [2][3][4] - The downward revision of July's non-farm employment figures to 73,000, below the expected 110,000, along with substantial downward adjustments to previous months' data, reflects a weakening economic backdrop and raises expectations for interest rate cuts, which is favorable for gold's financial attributes [3] - The resignation of a hawkish Federal Reserve member and changes in employment data leadership raise concerns about the independence of monetary policy, potentially leading to a loss of credibility in economic data and a favorable environment for gold prices [4] Summary by Sections Non-Farm Employment Data - July's non-farm employment added 73,000 jobs, significantly below the expected 110,000, with a total downward revision of 258,000 jobs for May and June [2][3] - The report notes a structural divide in employment growth, with private sector jobs increasing only by 74,000, the lowest since October of the previous year [3] Monetary Policy and Economic Outlook - The report suggests that the changes in leadership at the Federal Reserve could mirror historical instances where political pressures compromised monetary policy independence, potentially leading to stagflation [4] - The probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve for the September meeting surged from under 40% to nearly 90% following the employment data release [3] Investment Recommendations - The report maintains a positive outlook on the gold sector, recommending attention to companies such as China National Gold International, Shandong Gold, and others in the gold mining industry [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the text regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the bond market experienced significant fluctuations, and institutional behavior adjusted accordingly. After a series of market movements, the "chasing up" behavior of trading desks became more cautious, and the allocation desks showed differentiation without forming a joint force [8]. - The bond market vitality index increased. As of August 1st, it rose by 13 pcts to 49% compared to July 25th, and the 5D - MA increased by 1 pct to 45% [1][9]. - In July, the increase in wealth management scale was significantly weaker than the seasonal average. The scale of bond funds also had a notable decline in its month - on - month growth rate, while the month - on - month growth rate of stock funds was larger [4]. 3. Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Overall Sentiment: Bond Market Vitality Index Increase - The bond market vitality index is compiled based on the historical percentile levels of bond market leverage, turnover rate, bond fund duration, and the implied tax rate of government bonds since 2022 and their correlation with the bond market trend. As of August 1st, it rose by 13 pcts to 49% compared to July 25th, and the 5D - MA increased by 1 pct to 45% [9]. - Indicators of increasing bond market vitality include the trading volume of 10Y government bond active bonds/balance of 9 - 10Y government bonds, inter - bank bond market leverage, median duration of medium - and long - term pure bond funds, and 1 minus the implied tax rate of 10 - year government bonds. Indicators of decreasing bond market vitality include the turnover rate of 30Y government bonds [1][11][12]. 3.2 Institutional Behavior: After Repeated Market Fluctuations, Funds' Bullish Sentiment Became More Cautious 3.2.1 Buying and Selling Strength and Bond Selection - In the cash bond market last week, the order of net buying strength was: overseas institutions and others > other product types > insurance > wealth management > money market funds > funds. The order of net selling strength was: city commercial banks > joint - stock banks > securities firms > rural financial institutions. For ultra - long bonds (bonds with a maturity of over 15 years), the order of net buying strength was: insurance > wealth management > funds > other product types, and the order of net selling strength was: large - scale banks > joint - stock banks > city commercial banks > rural commercial banks > overseas institutions and others [19]. - Currently, the main bond types for various institutions are: large - scale banks focus on 3 - 5Y credit bonds; rural commercial banks focus on 3 - 5Y credit bonds; insurance focuses on 7 - 10Y interest - rate bonds; funds focus on 3 - 5Y interest - rate bonds; wealth management has no obvious main bond type; other product types focus on 7 - 10Y interest - rate bonds [2][24]. 3.2.2 Trading Desks: Interest - Rate Bond Funds Extended Duration, Credit Bond Funds Shortened Duration, and High - Performing Bond Funds Had Smaller Duration Adjustments - As of August 1st, the median duration of the full - sample medium - and long - term pure bond funds increased by 0.03 years to 4.39 years compared to July 25th. Among them, the median durations of pure interest - rate bond funds, interest - rate bond funds, and credit bond funds were 5.67 years, 5.43 years, and 3.95 years respectively, with changes of +0.98 years, +0.86 years, and - 0.47 years. The median durations of high - performing interest - rate bond funds and credit bond funds were 6.79 years and 4.75 years respectively, with changes of - 0.39 years and +0.19 years [2][41]. 3.2.3 Allocation Desks: Wealth Management Continuously Extended Duration, Rural Commercial Banks and Insurance Arranged Ultra - Long Bonds - In the primary market, the subscription demand for treasury bonds and policy - bank bonds increased last week. In the secondary market, large - scale banks' cumulative net purchase of 1 - 3Y treasury bonds this year was higher than the same period last year; rural commercial banks' cumulative net purchase of cash bonds this year was significantly weaker than in previous years, mainly due to the weak net purchase of short - term bonds within 1 year, but their net purchase of 7 - 10Y and over 10Y cash bonds was higher than the same period in previous years; insurance's net purchase of cash bonds and its ratio to premium income were significantly higher than in previous years, mainly because of the sufficient supply of ultra - long - term government bonds; wealth management continued to increase the duration of its net - purchased cash bonds in the secondary market, reaching the highest level since February 23, 2024 [3][55][79]. 3.3 Asset Management Product Tracking: The Increase in Wealth Management Scale in July Was Significantly Weaker than the Seasonal Average - In July, the increase in wealth management scale was weaker than the seasonal average. The actual month - on - month increase was 274.1 billion yuan, while the estimated increase based on the average month - on - month growth rate of the past four months was 1.87 trillion yuan. The month - on - month growth rate of bond fund scale declined significantly in July, while that of stock funds was larger. Last week, the net value of various types of bond funds increased significantly, but they still recorded overall negative returns in the past month [4][90][98].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" with a target price not specified [6] Core Viewpoints - The company is implementing an employee stock ownership plan aimed at enhancing the alignment of interests between employees and shareholders, improving corporate governance, and boosting employee morale and creativity for sustainable growth [1] - The company is actively developing its IP assets, particularly the "Little Bear Family" cartoon character, to cater to the aesthetic trends of younger consumers, resulting in significant revenue growth in related product categories, especially home textiles, which saw a 236% year-on-year increase in revenue [2] - The company possesses a unique and scarce cultural IP, "Yunjin," which has been integrated into modern product systems, creating a competitive advantage that is difficult for rivals to replicate [3] - The company maintains its profit forecast, expecting revenues of 4.6 billion, 4.9 billion, and 5.2 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with net profits of 360 million, 430 million, and 500 million yuan respectively [4] Financial Data Summary - The company’s total share capital is 346.20 million shares, with a total market capitalization of approximately 3.4 billion yuan [7] - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 1.03 yuan, 1.24 yuan, and 1.44 yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4][11] - The company’s revenue for 2023 is reported at approximately 4.54 billion yuan, with a projected growth rate of 16.55% [11][13] - The company’s gross margin is expected to remain stable, with a forecasted gross margin of 69.50% for 2025 [14]

Investment Rating - Industry rating is maintained at "Outperform the Market" [4] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the opportunity to focus on traditional sectors during market pullbacks while continuing to recommend high-end electronic fabric products. The recent meeting of the Central Political Bureau highlighted the need to stabilize employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations, which is expected to release domestic demand potential. The report anticipates that the governance of "involution" will form a combination of market, administrative, and legal measures, leading to clearer price recovery effects in industries with good demand support, such as cement [2][10] - The report suggests that the traditional building materials sector is nearing a cyclical bottom, with expectations for improvement in infrastructure and real estate demand. It highlights that the basic conditions for the sector are expected to improve, particularly with the recent release of real estate optimization policies [16] Summary by Sections Market Review - The report notes that the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index fell by 1.75%, while the building materials sector (CITIC) dropped by 3.32%. Among individual stocks, Honghe Technology saw a significant increase of 22.1% [1][10] - The performance of the recommended stocks included Honghe Technology (+22.1%), Zhongcai Technology (-2.5%), Xibu Cement (-1.44%), Huaxin Cement (-6.9%), and others [1][10] Recommended Stocks - The report recommends a focus on the following stocks: Zhongcai Technology, Honghe Technology, Xibu Cement, Huaxin Cement, Sankeshu, Dongfang Yuhong, and Weixing New Materials [3][16] Key Industry Insights - Cement is expected to benefit from anticipated improvements in infrastructure and real estate demand. The supply structure is expected to continue optimizing in the medium to long term [16] - The report indicates that the consumption building materials sector is likely to stabilize as real estate policies improve, with leading companies undergoing channel transformations to enhance scale effects [16] - New materials such as glass and carbon fiber are expected to face high demand and opportunities for domestic substitution, with leading companies likely to experience rapid growth [16] - The report also notes that the glass sector is at a historically low market value, with expectations for recovery as the industry undergoes cold repairs [16]

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [7] Core Insights - Microsoft reported revenue of $76.442 billion for the latest quarter, a year-on-year increase of 18.1%, with net profit reaching $27.233 billion, up 23.58%, driven primarily by its intelligent cloud business [1][12] - Meta's Q2 revenue was $47.52 billion, a 22% year-on-year increase, exceeding market expectations, with ad revenue of $46.56 billion [2][15] - The overseas computing power industry remains robust, unaffected by DeepSeek and trade frictions, with a strong fundamental resonance in the related supply chain [3][28] Summary by Sections 1. Artificial Intelligence and Digital Economy - Key recommendations include optical modules and devices, with a focus on companies like Zhongji Xuchuang, Xinyi Sheng, Tianfu Communication, and Yuanjie Technology [5][31] - For switch server PCBs, recommended companies include Hudian Co., ZTE, and Unisplendour [5][31] - Low valuation and high dividend opportunities are identified in major telecom operators like China Mobile, China Telecom, and China Unicom [5][31] - AIDC and cooling solutions are highlighted, with key recommendations for companies like Yingweike and Runze Technology [5][31] - AIGC applications and edge computing are emphasized, recommending companies such as Guohua Communication and Meige Intelligent [5][31] 2. Marine Wind and Submarine Cables - Key recommendations for submarine cable companies include Hengtong Optic-Electric, Zhongtian Technology, and Oriental Cable [6][32] - The recovery of overseas markets and concentration on leading companies is noted, with recommendations for Huace Navigation and Weisheng Information [6][32] 3. Satellite Internet and Low-altitude Economy - The acceleration of national defense informatization and low-orbit satellite development is highlighted, with key recommendations for Huace Navigation and Haige Communication [6][33] - The successful launch of low-orbit satellites for broadband communication services is noted, marking significant progress in China's satellite internet initiatives [26][27] 4. Recent Industry Trends - The report indicates that the computing power industry is expected to maintain high growth, with AI as a key investment theme for 2025 [3][28] - The government has included "deep-sea technology" in its work report, indicating a positive trend for the marine wind and cable industry [3][28] - The report emphasizes the importance of AI and digital economy as long-term trends, with a focus on ICT equipment, optical modules, and cloud computing infrastructure [30][29]

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the Market (maintained rating) [3] Core Viewpoints - Oil prices are at a crossroads again, with Brent crude trading above $70 per barrel due to escalating sanctions on Russian oil and China's proactive inventory accumulation in Q2 [1][9] - Two scenarios for oil price predictions: 1. If secondary sanctions on Russian oil are implemented, leading to a reduction of 1.5 to 2 million barrels per day in purchases from India and potential impacts on China's independent refiners, oil prices could rise above $80 per barrel [2][29] 2. If sanctions do not materialize, with China and India having already built significant inventories, oil prices may drop below $60 per barrel in the upcoming months due to OPEC's continued production increases and the approaching off-peak season [2][29] Summary by Sections Russian Oil Factors - The potential for secondary sanctions from the U.S. against countries trading with Russia could lead to a significant reduction in Russian oil supply, particularly affecting India and Turkey [10][14] - China's previous immunity to sanctions may be challenged amid ongoing U.S.-China tariff negotiations [15][16] China's Q2 Inventory Behavior - In Q2 2025, China accumulated over 1 million barrels per day, indicating a proactive strategy to mitigate risks from potential sanctions [17][28] - As of July, inventory levels in the Asia-Pacific region reached unprecedented highs, contributing to stronger-than-expected oil prices despite OPEC's production increases [17][28] Price Scenario Judgments - Scenario 1: Implementation of secondary sanctions could lead to oil prices exceeding $80 per barrel due to supply shortages [29] - Scenario 2: If sanctions do not occur, oil prices may fall below $60 per barrel as inventory accumulation reduces demand [29]

Group 1 - The overall industry sentiment shows an upward trend in sectors such as power equipment, electronics, pharmaceuticals, and home appliances, while sectors like steel, building materials, machinery, food and beverage, textiles, automotive, non-bank financials, banking, real estate, environmental protection, and retail are experiencing a downward trend [2][26][27] - Key industry data as of August 3, 2025, includes: automotive industry tire operating rate at 61.08%, down 3.94% month-on-month; machinery equipment price index at 125.31 points, down 0.1% month-on-month; power equipment price for ternary materials at 114,500 CNY/ton, up 1.78% month-on-month; real estate transaction area in 30 major cities at 128,400 square meters, down 20% month-on-month; Beijing subway passenger volume at 11.426 million, up 51.52% month-on-month [2][27] - The report suggests focusing on industries such as automotive services, general equipment, commercial vehicles, rail transit equipment, and battery sectors, indicating a shift in investment focus [26][28] Group 2 - The scale of wealth management products exceeded 30 trillion CNY, but the year-on-year growth rate has slowed, with a 2.4% increase compared to the end of 2024 [4][30] - The investment in credit bonds has decreased, while the proportion of interest rate bonds has increased, indicating a shift in asset allocation strategies [4][31] - Future outlook suggests that the relative yield advantage of wealth management products will continue to attract investment, although long-term growth may slow due to declining underlying asset yields [4][32] Group 3 - The lithium battery equipment industry is experiencing a revival, with significant capital expenditure from leading companies like CATL, indicating a new round of expansion [11][12] - The report highlights the importance of the mixing and slurry preparation segments in the lithium battery supply chain, with companies like Honggong Technology and Liqi Intelligent being key players [11] - The global lithium battery equipment market is projected to reach 85 billion CNY by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 26% [11][12] Group 4 - The semiconductor industry is expected to maintain optimistic growth in 2025, driven by demand for AI and other technologies, with a focus on performance in the upcoming peak season [20][14] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring storage, power, and ASIC performance, as well as the domestic substitution of equipment and materials [20][14] - The electronic sector's allocation ratio remains the highest in the market, indicating strong investor interest [14]