公司报告 | 公司点评 华利集团（300979） 证券研究报告 On 业绩超预期，华利客户卡位优势显现 客户 On 发布业绩公告 FY25Q1 收入 7 亿瑞士法郎同比+40%（货币中性），净利 0.6 亿瑞士法郎同 比-38%； 毛利率 60%略有增长，调后 EBIDA 利润率 17%同比+1pct。 截止 25 年 3 月末，公司库存 4 亿瑞士法郎环比-5%；考虑上调指引，我们 预计有较多备库需求。 一季度表现超预期，品牌在所有渠道、地区和产品类别中彰显强劲势头。 得益于积极推动多渠道策略，成功推出 Cloudsurfer2 和 Cloud6；服装产品 强劲吸引力和以明星 Zendaya 为主角的品牌宣传。 On 上调全年指引，预计收入 28.6 亿瑞士法郎同比+28%（原值为 27%），毛 利率 60-60.5%（原值为 60.5%，主要系全球关税等不确定性），调后 EBITDA 利润率 16.5-17.5%（原值为 17-17.5%）。 我们认为 ON 作为华利重要增量客户之一，业绩靓丽表现且库存较轻，利 好公司订单预期；同时也反映公司具备较好的客户挖掘及卡位能力，伴随 On 规模持续成长，我们预计 ...

Investment Rating - Industry rating is maintained at "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Viewpoints - The recent reduction in tariffs is beneficial for the fiberglass industry, with a focus on structural opportunities in low dielectric and low expansion products [2][3][17] - In the week of May 10-16, the sales area of commercial housing in 30 major cities was 1.8952 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 10.34% [2][16] - The current tariff rate on fiberglass stands at 55%, which is a combination of previous tariffs and new measures, but the impact on the fiberglass industry is expected to be limited compared to earlier trade disputes [2][13] - The supply side is facing significant capacity shocks, with an estimated actual capacity impact of approximately 930,000 tons in 2025 due to new production lines coming online [3][19] - The market demand for low dielectric and low expansion fiberglass is anticipated to grow, with key players like China National Materials and Honghe Technology positioned well in this segment [3][17] Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.12% while the construction materials sector fell by 0.15% during the past five trading days [11] - Notable stock performances included Zhongqi New Materials (+26.6%) and ST Sansheng (+11.5%) [11] Key Industry Segments - Cement prices have continued to decline, with a decrease of 1.1% observed recently, particularly in North China, East China, and Central South regions [19] - The fiberglass market is stabilizing, with mainstream prices for non-alkali yarn remaining steady, while the overall market is expected to trend weakly [19][20] Recommended Stocks - Key recommended stocks include China National Materials, Sankeshu, Western Cement, Huaxin Cement, China Resources Cement Technology, and Gaozheng Mining [20][21]

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [4] Core Viewpoints - The carbon fiber market is currently at a stage of price stabilization, with potential for further price wars due to rapid capacity release by some companies. However, the original fiber segment remains limited, suggesting that price reductions in this area are unlikely. Companies such as Jilin Carbon Valley are recommended for attention [3] - In the electronic materials sector, the demand for foldable smartphones remains strong despite a downturn in consumer electronics. The continuous decline in industry price bands is expected to further stimulate downstream demand, creating a positive feedback loop. The report maintains a positive outlook for the penetration of foldable smartphones over the next 3-5 years, with key recommendations including Shiming Technology and Kaisheng Technology [3] - In the renewable materials sector, the photovoltaic demand continues to grow rapidly, but the expansion across the industry chain is also significant, indicating a need for market clearing. The wind power sector is seeing increased capacity, particularly in offshore wind, with a recommendation for Times New Material [4] Summary by Sections Market Review - The new materials index increased by 0.6%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.5 percentage points. Notable performances include a 2.9% increase in the carbon fiber index and a 3.1% increase in the paint and ink index [11] Key Focus Areas - The price of wet 3K carbon fiber has increased by approximately 4%, driven by demand from the low-altitude economy and significant export growth. The price before the adjustment ranged from 150,000 to 400,000 yuan per ton [8] Long-term Perspectives - Carbon Fiber: The T300 large tow is at a price bottom, with potential for price wars in the carbon fiber segment. Jilin Carbon Valley is highlighted as a key player [3] - Electronic Materials: The report emphasizes the growth potential of foldable smartphones and recommends Shiming Technology and Kaisheng Technology [3] - Renewable Materials: The photovoltaic sector is expected to maintain strong demand, while the wind power sector is experiencing significant growth, with Times New Material recommended [4]

Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Insights - The CDMO sector is expected to see a continuous recovery in performance, driven by order demand, with a projected revenue of 831.91 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 2.92%, and a net profit of 140.44 billion yuan, down 15.05% year-on-year. However, Q1 2025 shows a revenue increase of 11.35% year-on-year to 208.91 billion yuan and a significant net profit growth of 65.48% to 49.87 billion yuan [2][7] - The CRO sector faces performance pressure due to high base effects, with 2024 revenue at 165.36 billion yuan, down 7.22% year-on-year, and a net profit of 5.17 billion yuan, down 78.88% year-on-year. In Q1 2025, revenue decreased by 5.75% year-on-year to 36.72 billion yuan, but net profit rebounded by 104.57% to 3.12 billion yuan [3][10] Summary by Sections CDMO Sector - The CDMO sector includes 12 listed companies, with a total revenue of 831.91 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 2.92% year-on-year. The net profit is 140.44 billion yuan, down 15.05% year-on-year, and the net profit excluding non-recurring items is 136.37 billion yuan, down 16.25% year-on-year [2][7] - In Q1 2025, the CDMO sector's revenue reached 208.91 billion yuan, an increase of 11.35% year-on-year, with a net profit of 49.87 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 65.48% year-on-year [6][7] - The order book for WuXi AppTec reached 523.3 billion yuan as of March 2025, a year-on-year increase of 47.1%, indicating strong demand recovery [4][7] CRO Sector - The CRO sector comprises 13 listed companies, with a total revenue of 165.36 billion yuan in 2024, down 7.22% year-on-year, and a net profit of 5.17 billion yuan, down 78.88% year-on-year [3][10] - In Q1 2025, the CRO sector's revenue was 36.72 billion yuan, a decrease of 5.75% year-on-year, while net profit surged by 104.57% to 3.12 billion yuan [9][10] - New order demand is recovering, with Sunshine Guohe signing new contracts worth 1.786 billion yuan in 2024, up 18.74% year-on-year, and Tigermed's new contract amount exceeding 2 billion yuan in Q1 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 20% [10]

Group 1 - The report highlights a continuous rebound in social financing (社融) in April, with an increase of 1.16 trillion yuan, which is 12.25 billion yuan more than the same period last year, and a year-on-year growth rate of 8.7% [2][26][27] - The M2 growth is seen as a foundation for the rebound in social financing, with the central bank emphasizing the importance of revitalizing existing financial resources and preventing idle capital [2][26] - The report indicates that while there are signs of improvement in data, further support is needed, particularly in the real estate sector, where the proportion of domestic loans for real estate development has risen to 14%, nearing levels seen in 2019-2020 [2][26] Group 2 - The financial data for April shows a significant year-on-year decrease in new RMB loans, with an addition of 280 billion yuan, which is 450 billion yuan less than the previous year, and a notable decline in new social financing [6] - The report notes that government bonds have been a major driver of social financing growth, with April's social financing growth rate potentially being the peak for the year [6] - The M2 growth acceleration is attributed to a low base effect, while M1 growth has slightly declined, indicating a need to monitor the effectiveness of monetary policy [6] Group 3 - The report on the computer industry emphasizes the potential of AI agents, particularly in the consumer (C-end) and business (B-end) sectors, with major companies like Alibaba and Tencent leading the C-end market [11] - The B-end market is segmented into head clients and small to medium clients, with different strategies for adopting AI solutions based on their needs and capabilities [11] - The report anticipates a significant growth in AI infrastructure, with the market for intelligent computing centers expected to exceed 288.6 billion yuan by 2028, growing at a compound annual growth rate of 26.8% from 2023 to 2028 [11][12] Group 4 - The report on the electric new energy sector highlights Jinlei Co., which achieved a total operating income of 505 million yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 97.5%, driven by increased shipment volumes [13] - The company’s dual business model of forging and casting is expected to enhance its market share, with significant growth in its wind power casting business [13] - The report also mentions an employee stock ownership plan that could stimulate operational vitality, involving up to 2.805 million shares at a grant price of 11.53 yuan per share [13]

Investment Rating - Industry rating is maintained at "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Viewpoints - The recent reduction in tariffs is beneficial for the fiberglass industry, with a focus on structural opportunities in low dielectric and low expansion products [2][3][17] - In the week of May 10-16, the sales area of commercial housing in 30 major cities was 1.8952 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 10.34% [2][16] - The current tariff rate on fiberglass stands at 55%, which is a combination of previous tariffs and new measures, but the impact on the fiberglass industry is expected to be limited compared to earlier trade disputes [2][13] - The supply side is experiencing significant capacity increases, with an estimated actual capacity impact of approximately 930,000 tons in 2025 due to new production lines coming online [3][19] - The market demand for low dielectric and low expansion fiberglass is anticipated to grow, with expectations for the second generation of these products to continue the high demand trend [3][17] Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.12% while the construction materials sector fell by 0.15% during the past five trading days [11] - Notable stock performances included Zhongqi New Materials (+26.6%) and ST Sansheng (+11.5%) [11] Key Sub-Industry Tracking - Cement prices have continued to decline, with a decrease of 1.1% observed [19] - The fiberglass market is stabilizing, with prices for non-alkali yarn remaining steady, while the overall market is expected to trend weakly [19][20] Recommendations - Key recommended stocks include Zhongcai Technology, Sankeshu, Western Cement, Huaxin Cement, and China Resources Cement Technology [20][21] - The report emphasizes the long-term value of traditional building materials and the growth potential of new energy materials [20][21]

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [6] Core Views - The report maintains a positive outlook on the AI industry as a key investment theme for the year, anticipating that 2025 may become a pivotal year for domestic AI infrastructure competition and application development [3][25] - The report highlights the strong performance of Alibaba and Tencent, driven by robust AI demand, with Alibaba's cloud revenue growing by 18% and Tencent's R&D spending increasing by 21% [3][17] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring AI industry dynamics and investment opportunities, particularly in the context of ongoing advancements in AI applications and infrastructure [3][25] Summary by Sections 1. Artificial Intelligence and Digital Economy - Key recommendations include: - Optical modules & optical devices: Focus on companies like Zhongji Xuchuang, Xinyi Sheng, Tianfu Communication, and Yuanjie Technology [4][28] - Switch server PCB: Recommended companies include Hudian Co., ZTE, and Unisplendour [4][28] - Low valuation, high dividend: China Mobile, China Telecom, and China Unicom are highlighted for resource revaluation [4][28] - AIDC & cooling: Key recommendations include Yingweike, Runze Technology, and Guanghuan New Network [4][28] - AIGC applications/edge computing: Focus on companies like Guohua Tong and Meige Intelligent [4][28] 2. Marine Wind Cable & Intelligent Driving - Marine wind cable: Recommended companies include Hengtong Optic-Electric, Zhongtian Technology, and Oriental Cable [5][30] - Recovery in overseas markets: Key recommendations include Huace Navigation and Weisheng Information [5][30] - Intelligent driving: Suggested companies include Guanghuan Tong and Meige Intelligent [5][30] 3. Satellite Internet & Low-altitude Economy - The report notes the acceleration of national defense information construction and low-orbit satellite development, recommending companies like Huace Navigation and Haige Communication [6][31] 4. Recent Industry Dynamics - The report discusses the recent financial performance of Alibaba and Tencent, highlighting significant revenue growth driven by AI-related products [15][17] - It also mentions the U.S. decision to revoke AI chip export restrictions, which may impact the semiconductor industry [19][20] 5. Market Performance Review - The communication sector showed a slight increase of 0.22% during the week, underperforming compared to the CSI 300 index [32][33]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a maintained rating for the next six months [5]. Core Views - The company has achieved a record high in hand orders for submarine cables, with significant contributions from exports, particularly in Europe [1]. - The company has adjusted its product classification in its regular reports starting from 2025, focusing on green transmission facilities and deep-sea technology [1]. - The company has seen substantial revenue growth in its submarine cables and high-voltage cables, with a year-on-year increase of 218.79% in Q1 2025 [1]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 2.147 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 63.83%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 281 million yuan, up 6.66% [1]. - The revenue from the power engineering and equipment cables segment reached 885 million yuan, growing by 53.28% year-on-year [1]. - The company has a total order backlog of approximately 18.9 billion yuan as of April 21, 2025, with significant contributions from submarine cables and high-voltage cables [3]. Financial Forecast - The company’s projected net profit for 2025 is adjusted to 1.695 billion yuan, with further projections of 2.401 billion yuan for 2026 and 2.739 billion yuan for 2027 [4]. - The expected revenue growth rates for the years 2024 to 2027 are 24.38%, 32.00%, 27.50%, and 14.40% respectively [4]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 2.47 yuan in 2025, increasing to 3.49 yuan in 2026 and 3.98 yuan in 2027 [4]. Market Context - The European countries have increased their offshore wind planning targets, which is expected to drive demand for the company's products [2]. - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the acceleration of offshore wind projects in Europe, leading to a dual catalyst for orders and performance [4].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is maintained as "Outperform the Market" [6] Core Views - The macro sentiment is improving, leading to a recovery in base metal prices, particularly copper and aluminum [1][10] - Gold prices are under pressure due to easing risk sentiment and trade negotiations between the US and China [2][25] - Supply tightness is pushing tungsten prices higher, while other small metals show mixed trends [3][43] Summary by Sections Base and Precious Metals - **Copper**: Copper prices are fluctuating at high levels, with social inventory showing signs of recovery. The current inventory level is low, but demand is weakening as it enters the off-season [1][13] - **Aluminum**: Aluminum prices have rebounded, supported by improved macro sentiment and declining social inventory. The theoretical operating capacity of the electrolytic aluminum industry has slightly increased [1][20] - **Precious Metals**: Gold prices have decreased by 3.54% to an average of 768.56 CNY/g, while silver prices fell by 1.13% to 8111 CNY/kg. The easing of trade tensions has limited gold's rebound potential [2][25] Minor Metals - **Tungsten**: Prices for tungsten have increased due to supply tightness, with black tungsten concentrate averaging 161,500 CNY/ton, up by 8,000 CNY/ton. The market is cautious due to high prices and limited low-cost supply [3][63] - **Lithium**: The lithium market remains stable with prices holding steady, but demand is weak, leading to a supply surplus [43][43] - **Cobalt**: Cobalt prices are stable, with limited trading activity due to cautious market sentiment and reduced purchasing intentions from downstream manufacturers [45][46] Rare Earths - **Light Rare Earths**: Prices for light rare earths, such as praseodymium and neodymium, have increased by 2.6% to 434,000 CNY/ton, supported by improving macro conditions and easing export controls [4][4] Other Metals - **Molybdenum**: The molybdenum market is stable with slight price increases, but the overall market remains cautious with limited trading activity [68][69]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price not specified [4] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 3.794 billion and a net profit of 370 million for Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 8.95% and 16.02% respectively [1][3] - The yeast business continues to show strong growth, contributing significantly to revenue, while the sugar business is undergoing adjustments [1] - Domestic revenue slightly decreased by 0.3% to 2.099 billion, while international revenue increased by 23% to 1.684 billion, indicating robust overseas performance [1] - The company has increased its distributor count by 1,399 to 24,211, with domestic and international distributors growing by 753 and 646 respectively [1] Financial Performance Summary - The gross margin improved by 1.31 percentage points to 25.97%, and the net margin increased by 0.72 percentage points to 10.20% [2] - The sales expense ratio rose by 0.74 percentage points to 5.58%, while the management expense ratio decreased by 0.20 percentage points to 3.49% [2] - The company expects revenue growth of 13%, 11%, and 8% for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with net profit growth of 19%, 15%, and 13% [2][8]