Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - This week, the trading behavior of various institutions was generally subdued. Only large banks showed a firm willingness to buy interest rate bonds with maturities of less than 3Y and 5 - 7Y, while funds were keen on buying credit bonds with maturities of less than 3Y. Large banks' cumulative net purchase of interest rate bonds reached 141.4 billion yuan this week, the highest weekly net purchase scale in the past year. Funds' net purchase of credit bonds was 3.4 billion yuan, the third - highest since August [10]. - Looking ahead, attention should be focused on the recovery of allocation power. For banks, the easing of government bond supply pressure in the fourth quarter may boost large banks' purchasing power. For insurance companies, after the reduction of product predetermined interest rates, the slowdown of liability - side expansion may be a long - term trend, and the "rush to allocate" situation in previous years may not be repeated in the fourth quarter [10]. Summary by Directory 1. Overall Sentiment: Bond Market Vitality Index Declined Slightly - The bond market vitality index was compiled based on the historical quantile levels of bond market leverage ratio, turnover rate, bond fund duration, and implied tax rate of China Development Bank bonds since 2022 and their correlation coefficients with bond market trends. As of October 24, the bond market vitality index dropped 4 pcts to 15% compared with October 17, and the 5D - MA dropped 1 pct to 24% [11]. - Indicators of rising bond market vitality included the implied tax rate of 10 - year China Development Bank bonds (inverse) and the excess level of the inter - bank bond market leverage ratio compared with the average of the past four years. Indicators of declining vitality included the trading volume of active 10Y China Development Bank bonds / the balance of 9 - 10Y China Development Bank bonds, the turnover rate of 30Y treasury bonds, and the median duration of medium - and long - term pure bond funds [13][14]. 2. Institutional Behavior: Current Institutional Behavior is Generally Subdued, Pay Attention to Allocation Power in the Future 2.1. Buying and Selling Strength and Bond Type Selection: Large Banks Continuously Buy Short - Term Bonds, Funds Focus on Credit Bonds - In the current bond market, the order of net buying strength was money market funds > funds > large banks > wealth management > securities firms > others > insurance > other product types > foreign banks, and the order of net selling strength was joint - stock banks > city commercial banks > rural financial institutions. For ultra - long - term bonds (bonds with a maturity of more than 15Y), the order of net buying strength was insurance > other product types > funds > wealth management > others, and the order of net selling strength was large banks > city commercial banks > joint - stock banks > rural commercial banks > securities firms > foreign banks [22]. - On different trading days from October 20 to 24, the buying and selling behaviors of various institutions varied. For example, on October 20, when the bond market fell across the board, large banks mainly bought interest rate bonds with maturities of less than 1Y, and funds mainly bought 7 - 10Y interest rate bonds, 1 - 3Y credit bonds, etc. [22][23]. - Based on the net purchase volume of bonds and historical quantiles, the main bond types of various institutions were as follows: large banks focused on interest rate bonds with maturities of less than 1Y, 1 - 3Y, and 5 - 7Y; rural commercial banks focused on other bonds with maturities of 3 - 5Y; insurance focused on 1 - 3Y credit bonds; funds focused on 1 - 3Y credit bonds; wealth management focused on interest rate bonds with maturities of less than 1Y and 1 - 3Y; other product types focused on credit bonds with maturities of less than 1Y [28]. 2.2. Trading Portfolio: The Durations of Credit and Interest Rate Bond Funds Continued to Decline, while the Durations of High - Performing Bond Funds Stabilized - As of October 24, the mean and median durations of the full - sample medium - and long - term pure bond funds decreased by 0.12 years and 0.11 years respectively compared with October 17. Among them, the median durations of pure interest rate bond funds, interest rate bond funds, and credit bond funds decreased by 0.19 years, 0.17 years, and 0.08 years respectively. The median durations of high - performing interest rate bond funds and credit bond funds increased by 0.00 years and 0.05 years respectively [38][42]. 2.3. Allocation Portfolio: Large Banks Concentrated on Buying Interest Rate Bonds with Maturities of Less than 3Y - **Differentiated Primary Subscription Demand for Treasury Bonds and Policy - Financial Bonds, and Differentiated Demand for Ultra - Long - Term Bonds**: This week, the weighted average full - subscription multiples of treasury bonds and policy - financial bonds changed. The weighted average full - subscription multiples of 10Y and above treasury bonds and policy - financial bonds also showed different trends [56]. - **Large Banks: Constraints on Bond Allocation May Ease**: In the fourth quarter, the supply pressure of ultra - long - term bonds is expected to be lower than that in the second and third quarters, and interest rate risk indicators are mostly assessed at the end of the month or quarter. Therefore, the constraints on large banks' bond allocation may ease. In terms of short - term treasury bond trading, large banks' net buying of 1Y and below treasury bonds has been higher than that of the same period last year since June, and the cumulative net buying of 1 - 3Y treasury bonds as of October 24 has reached 845.3 billion yuan [63]. - **Rural Commercial Banks: Weak Bond - Buying Power, Emphasizing Long - Term Bonds over Short - Term Bonds**: This year, the cumulative net purchase of bonds by rural commercial banks has been significantly weaker than in previous years, mainly due to the weak net purchase of short - term bonds with maturities of less than 1Y. However, the net purchase of 7 - 10Y and 10Y + bonds has been significantly higher than in previous years [76]. - **Insurance: The Acceleration of Government Bond Issuance Helps Insurance Deploy Ultra - Long - Term Bonds**: This year, the net purchase of bonds by insurance companies has been significantly higher than in previous years, mainly due to the strong purchase of ultra - long - term bonds with maturities of more than 10Y. As of October 24, the ratio of cumulative net bond purchases to cumulative premium income and the ratio of cumulative net bond purchases to the cumulative issuance of 10Y + government bonds were both higher than those at the end of October last year [85]. - **Wealth Management: Extending Duration in the Secondary Market**: Since June, the cumulative net purchase of bonds by wealth management products has continued to rise, significantly higher than the levels of the past three years. As of October 24, the cumulative net purchase of 10Y + bonds by wealth management products has reached 16.59 billion yuan [93]. 3. Asset Management Product Tracking: Credit Bond Funds Performed Better in the Past Week - Since October, the scale of bond funds and equity funds has changed little. This week, 1.952 billion yuan of new bond funds were established, at a historically low level [95][96]. - In terms of bond fund performance, the net values of most interest rate bond funds declined in the past week, while credit bond funds performed better. The median annualized returns of pure interest rate bond funds, interest rate bond funds, and credit bond funds in the past week were - 2.51%, - 1.96%, and 2.79% respectively, and most credit bond funds had positive returns in the past three months [96].

Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the market is currently in a consolidation phase, with a need for confirmation signals to return to an upward trend [2][4][9] - The macroeconomic environment remains uncertain due to ongoing US-China trade tensions and upcoming Federal Reserve meetings, which may suppress market risk appetite [2][4][10] - The overall market (WIND All A Index) experienced a weekly increase of 3.47%, with small-cap stocks (CSI 2000) rising by 3.75% and mid-cap stocks (CSI 500) by 3.46% [10][11] Market Timing System - The distance between the 20-day moving average (MA) and the 120-day MA has narrowed, with the 20-day MA at 6264 points and the closing price at 6320 points, indicating a need for the 5-day MA to rise above the 20-day MA for confirmation [2][11][18] - The current market is characterized by a consolidation pattern, with risk preference being a key observation indicator [2][4][11] Industry Configuration - The industry trend configuration model shows that storage chips and construction machinery are still in an upward trend, while sectors benefiting from policy support include real estate and photovoltaics [3][12][18] - The TWO BETA model continues to recommend the technology sector, focusing on domestic computing power and gaming [3][12][18] Valuation Indicators - The overall PE ratio of the WIND All A Index is around the 85th percentile, while the PB ratio is at the 50th percentile, indicating a moderate valuation level [3][12] - Based on short-term trend assessments, the report suggests maintaining a 60% allocation in absolute return products based on the WIND All A Index [3][12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [6][41]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 90.9 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decline of 6.35%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 6.123 billion yuan, down 25.1% year-on-year [1][11]. - Despite price pressures, the company managed to increase its production and sales volume across its main business segments [12][17]. - The company has effectively controlled its expenses, with a total expense of 4.846 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.98 billion yuan compared to the previous year [3][31]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved a gross profit of 12.58 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.352 billion yuan year-on-year, with a comprehensive gross margin of 13.8%, down 2.6 percentage points [2][13]. - The company’s operating cash flow per share was 2.7 yuan, with a diluted earnings per share (EPS) of 1.95 yuan [1][11]. - The company’s net profit forecast for 2025-2027 is projected to be 13.1 billion, 16.3 billion, and 22.5 billion yuan respectively [41]. Business Segments - The revenue breakdown for the first half of 2025 shows that the polyurethane series generated 36.9 billion yuan, the petrochemical series 34.9 billion yuan, and the fine chemicals and new materials series 15.6 billion yuan [2][12]. - The production volumes for the three main series in the first half of 2025 were 2.98 million tons for polyurethane, 2.95 million tons for petrochemicals, and 1.24 million tons for fine chemicals, reflecting year-on-year increases [17][19]. Cost Control and Investment - The company’s expense ratio for the first half of 2025 was 5.3%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous year, with significant reductions in management and financial expenses [3][31]. - The company’s ongoing construction projects have decreased significantly, with the amount of ongoing projects at 39.7 billion yuan, down 7.8 billion yuan from the previous period [37].

Group 1: Market Insights from the Fourth Plenary Session - The Fourth Plenary Session emphasized the importance of "consumption" and "technology" in its public report, indicating a shift in focus towards these areas [1][10] - The report reflects a cautious stance on current development risks, stating that China is in a period of both strategic opportunities and challenges [1][12] - The overall policy tone remains centered on "seeking progress while maintaining stability," with a focus on economic construction and high-quality development [1][13][14] Group 2: Domestic Economic Performance - In Q3 2025, China's GDP grew by 4.8%, slightly above the expected 4.76%, with the primary industry showing an increase while the secondary and tertiary industries declined [2][19] - Industrial production in September showed a strong recovery, with a year-on-year increase of 6.5%, surpassing expectations [2][23][25] - Social consumption and investment weakened in September, with retail sales growth at 3.0%, below the expected 3.11% [2][37][45] Group 3: International Economic Context - The U.S. CPI and core CPI growth rates in September were below market expectations, indicating potential implications for monetary policy [3][26] - The geopolitical landscape, including the Russia-Ukraine conflict and Middle East tensions, continues to influence global economic conditions [3][3] Group 4: Industry Allocation Recommendations - Investment strategies should focus on three main directions: breakthroughs in AI technology, economic recovery, and the rise of undervalued sectors [4][4] - The report suggests that the initial phase of a bull market favors high-growth sectors, while later phases may see increased interest in cyclical stocks due to their low valuations and high beta characteristics [4][4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price set for the next six months [7]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 12.3 billion RMB for FY26H1, a year-on-year decrease of 5.8%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 789 million RMB, down 9.7% year-on-year. The gross margin stood at 41.0%, reflecting a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points [1]. - The company is implementing a "1+N" model to enhance its retail strategy, expanding offline stores into various online scenarios, resulting in a total of 4,688 stores, a decrease of 19.4% year-on-year. However, online retail sales have seen double-digit growth, alleviating some pressure on offline traffic [2]. - The company is focusing on high-potential segments, particularly in running and outdoor sports, by partnering with brands like nordaTM and Norrøna for exclusive operations in China [3]. - The membership economy is showing significant value, with a total user base of 89 million and membership contributing 92.9% to total retail sales. High-value members contribute nearly 35% to sales, with average transaction values significantly higher than non-members [4]. Financial Projections - The report maintains its profit forecast, expecting revenues of 26.5 billion RMB, 27.3 billion RMB, and 28.6 billion RMB for FY26-28, with net profits projected at 1.3 billion RMB, 1.5 billion RMB, and 1.7 billion RMB respectively. The expected EPS is 0.21 RMB, 0.24 RMB, and 0.27 RMB for the same period [5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price not specified [4]. Core Views - The company has demonstrated strong growth, achieving a revenue of 714 million yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 103.5%, and a net profit of 108 million yuan, marking a turnaround from losses [1]. - The growth is attributed to the continuous improvement of the 3D visual perception industry chain and the rapid expansion of downstream applications such as 3D scanning and robotics [1]. - The company is positioned as a domestic unicorn in the 3D visual sector, with its technology and products gaining recognition from global giants [3]. Financial Performance - Revenue projections for FY2025-FY2027 are 960 million, 1.42 billion, and 1.75 billion yuan respectively, with net profit forecasts of 109 million, 243 million, and 356 million yuan [3]. - The company reported a significant improvement in operational efficiency and cost control, contributing to its high growth trajectory [1]. - The EBITDA for FY2025 is projected at 125.43 million yuan, with a notable increase in profit margins expected [3]. Product Development - The company has launched new flagship products in 3D scanning, including the XTOM-MATRIX 12M blue light scanner and the XTOM-STATION automated inspection center, aimed at high-precision manufacturing sectors [3]. - The Gemini 330 series 3D depth cameras are now fully compatible with NVIDIA Jetson Thor platform, enhancing the company's capabilities in AI and robotics [2]. Market Position - The company is actively collaborating with major tech firms like Microsoft and NVIDIA, reinforcing its strategic position in the AI and robotics market [2]. - The focus on self-research and innovation is expected to accelerate the transformation of technological advantages into sustainable growth [3].

Industry Rating - The industry rating for the electrolytic aluminum sector is maintained at "Outperform" [1] Core Viewpoints - The electrolytic aluminum sector is characterized by a perfect blend of resilience and dividend value, indicating a revaluation process is underway [1][3] - The sector's average dividend yield is projected to be 6.0% by the end of 2024, ranking it first among major high-dividend industries, with China Hongqiao's yield reaching 13.7% [2][19] - The report emphasizes the transition of the electrolytic aluminum stocks from being viewed as highly cyclical assets to becoming quality scarce assets with both price elasticity and dividend support [9][19] Summary by Sections 1. Current Dividend Yield of the Electrolytic Aluminum Sector - As of the end of 2024, the weighted average dividend yield for the electrolytic aluminum sector is estimated at 6.0%, leading among high-dividend industries [2][19] - China Hongqiao's dividend yield is notably high at 13.7%, significantly above other industry leaders [20][21] - The overall trend indicates a clear increase in dividend levels across the sector, with many companies raising their dividend guidance for 2025 [24] 2. Sources of Dividend Value Beyond Resilience - The sector's profitability is expected to remain high due to a tightening supply-demand balance, with domestic production capacity nearing its ceiling [6][28] - The report highlights that the capital expenditure peak has passed, leading to improved asset structure and quality within the sector [45][52] - The transition from a focus on scale expansion to quality enhancement is evident, with a clear path for converting high profits into cash flow and shareholder returns [6][39] 3. Will the Valuation of the Electrolytic Aluminum Sector Increase? - Historical comparisons with coal and China Hongqiao suggest that the market is willing to assign higher valuations to dividend-paying assets, recognizing their asset quality and stable cash flows [4] - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for leading companies in high-dividend sectors have shown significant improvement since 2023, indicating potential for further valuation increases [4][19] - The overall trend in the sector shows a marked increase in dividend payout ratios, with several companies indicating higher future dividends [24] 4. Stock Selection in the Electrolytic Aluminum Sector - The report recommends focusing on high-dividend companies such as China Hongqiao and Zhongfu Industrial, as well as those with increasing dividend potential like China Aluminum and Shenhuo [5] - The sector is viewed as a combination of offensive aluminum price exposure and defensive dividend asset characteristics, suggesting a favorable investment outlook [5][9]

Investment Rating - Industry rating is maintained as "Outperform the Market" [7] Core Insights - PMI reported a strong performance in the third quarter of 2025, with revenue reaching $30.3 billion, a year-on-year increase of 7.5%, and gross profit of $20.5 billion, up 12.1% [1] - Smoore achieved record quarterly revenue of $4.197 billion in Q3 2025, marking a 27.2% year-on-year growth [3] - The strong growth in PMI's reduced-risk products, particularly Nicotine Pouches, is a key driver of performance, with shipments increasing by 25.8% year-on-year [2] - Smoore's HNB (Heated Not Burned) business has seen significant growth, supported by successful product launches in international markets [4] Summary by Sections PMI Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, PMI's revenue was $30.3 billion, with a gross profit of $20.5 billion, and an adjusted diluted EPS of $2.24, reflecting a 17.3% increase [1] - In Q3 alone, revenue was $10.8 billion, with an operating profit of $4.3 billion, showing a 16.7% increase [1] PMI Product Performance - PMI shipped 940 million cans of oral tobacco products in the first three quarters, a 25.8% increase, with Q3 shipments at 313 million cans, up 20.2% [2] - Nicotine Pouches shipments reached 663 million cans in the first three quarters, a 44.0% increase [2] Smoore Financial Performance - Smoore's revenue for the first three quarters was $10.21 billion, a 21.8% increase, with adjusted profit at $1.182 billion, a slight increase of 0.1% [3] - The third quarter revenue of Smoore was a record $4.197 billion, with adjusted profit of $444 million, reflecting a 4.0% year-on-year growth [3] Smoore Product Performance - Smoore's HNB and e-cigarette businesses showed healthy growth, with strategic support for clients leading to increased product launches and compliance with regulations [4] - The introduction of new products and localized marketing efforts have contributed to the growth of Smoore's proprietary brand business [4] Regulatory Environment - Customs authorities in Ningbo and Huangpu seized 265,140 boxes of infringing "ZYN" products, which is expected to strengthen the legitimate supply chain and benefit the compliant oral tobacco industry [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price not specified [4] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 213.15 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 16.6%, while the operating cost was 136.32 billion yuan, down 19.6%. The net profit attributable to shareholders for Q3 was 14.41 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 6.2% but an increase of 13.54% quarter-on-quarter, primarily driven by the power segment's profit growth [1] - The coal segment reported a revenue of 159.10 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, down 21.1%, with a total profit of 32.27 billion yuan, a decrease of 16% year-on-year. The company produced 250.9 million tons of coal, a slight decrease of 0.4% year-on-year [2] - The power segment's revenue was 65.18 billion yuan, down 9.0%, while the profit increased by 20.4% year-on-year to 10.14 billion yuan, mainly due to a significant reduction in costs. The cost per kilowatt-hour decreased by 8% year-on-year to 0.3275 yuan [3] Financial Data and Valuation - The company forecasts net profits attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 to be 54.00 billion, 54.09 billion, and 54.80 billion yuan respectively, with EPS of 2.72, 2.72, and 2.76 yuan [3] - The financial data indicates a projected revenue decline of 1.00% in 2025, with a net profit decrease of 7.96% [8] - The company’s total assets are projected to reach 677.81 billion yuan by 2025, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 25.42% [9]

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [8] Core Views - The poultry sector is experiencing a high season for avian influenza, with a focus on the need for overseas breeding imports, particularly for white chickens. The French Ministry of Agriculture has raised the risk level for highly pathogenic avian influenza from "medium" to "high" as of October 22, 2025. The total breeding stock update from January to September 2025 was 906,200 sets, a year-on-year decrease of 21.78% [12][13] - The yellow chicken segment is expected to see supply contraction, with demand being the core variable. As of September 21, 2025, the breeding stock was at 13.7 million sets, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.5% but a year-on-year increase of 5% [14] - The egg-laying chicken segment is seeing record profits for leading companies, with a significant reduction in domestic breeding imports due to avian influenza, leading to a tightening supply outlook [15] Summary by Sections Poultry Sector - Focus on white chicken fundamentals and changes in breeding imports. The ongoing avian influenza season necessitates attention to overseas breeding imports, particularly from France, which has seen a significant drop in breeding stock updates [12][13] - Yellow chicken supply may contract, with prices sensitive to demand changes. The average price for yellow chickens is expected to improve in the second half of the year compared to the first half [14] - Leading egg-laying companies are achieving historical profit highs, with a focus on companies like Xiaoming Co. due to their market share and bargaining power [15] Swine Sector - The swine industry continues to face losses, with a slight rebound in pig prices and stabilization in piglet prices. The average price of pigs was 11.95 yuan/kg, up 5.7% from the previous week [16][17] - There is a focus on the potential for capacity reduction in the swine sector, with leading companies like Muyuan Foods and Wen's Group being highlighted for their profitability [17] Cattle Sector - The dairy and beef cattle industries are undergoing significant capacity reduction, with a notable 8% decrease in dairy cow stock. The price for beef cattle is expected to see a turning point, with companies that utilize a "dairy-meat linkage" model being particularly well-positioned [18] Pet Sector - The domestic pet brand market is rapidly growing, with a focus on companies like Guibao Pet and Zhongchong Co. The export of pet food is also on the rise, with a year-on-year increase of 7.56% in volume [19][20][21] Seed Industry - The seed industry is poised for a turnaround, with a focus on biotechnology and genetically modified crops. Leading companies in the seed sector are expected to enhance their competitive edge [22] Feed and Animal Health Sectors - The feed sector is recommended for companies like Haida Group, which is expected to benefit from market share gains. The animal health sector is also highlighted for its potential to break through homogenized competition with innovative products [23][24]