Group 1 - The core conclusion indicates that the performance forecasts for Q3 2025 in the electronics and basic chemicals sectors are promising, with over 10 companies expecting a year-on-year profit growth exceeding 30% [1][9] - The electronics sector is expected to maintain high growth due to the AI wave, which is driving new demand for AI inference [1][12] - The basic chemicals sector is experiencing structural improvements due to supply constraints and demand support, with some industries already showing signs of recovery [1][24] Group 2 - As of October 15, 2025, the overall disclosure rate for Q3 2025 earnings forecasts across all A-shares is approximately 2.83%, with a positive forecast rate of about 83.06% [2][33] - Among the disclosed companies, the median year-on-year net profit growth rate is 71.2%, while the overall method shows a growth rate of 65.6% [2][45] - The sectors with the highest expected profit growth include non-ferrous metals (165.2%), agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery (213.7%), and media (753.9%) [45][48] Group 3 - In the upstream materials sector, significant growth is noted in industrial metals (2150.1%), new metal materials (298.8%), and minor metals (365.7%) [3][48] - The midstream manufacturing sector shows high growth rates in batteries (130.8%), wind power equipment (212.7%), and other electronics (111.6%) [3][51] - In the downstream consumption sector, notable growth is observed in agricultural product processing (372.8%), chemical pharmaceuticals (251.4%), and gaming (753.9%) [3][48] Group 4 - The sectors with the highest positive forecast rates for Q3 2025 include comprehensive services, non-bank financials, and social services, all at 100% [1][41] - Conversely, the sectors with the lowest positive forecast rates include building materials, coal, and beauty care [1][41] - The report highlights that the electronics industry is benefiting from a strong demand for AI-related hardware, with significant growth in the electronic information manufacturing sector [12][18]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price not specified [6] Core Insights - The company's Q3 2025 net profit doubled, exceeding expectations, with revenue of 5.348 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 39.02%, and a net profit of 1.766 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 100.52% [1][4] - The opening of six new zones contributed to revenue growth, with a total area of 1.25 million square meters, including 410,000 square meters for the market sector, attracting merchants from eight new industries [2] - The company has seen significant growth in cross-border payment services, with transaction volumes exceeding 27 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 35% [2] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported revenue of 13.061 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.07%, and a net profit of 3.457 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 48.45% [1] - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 4.749 billion yuan, 6.251 billion yuan, and 7.919 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 22, 17, and 13 [4][5] - The company's total revenue is expected to grow from 11.3 billion yuan in 2023 to 33.1 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate [5][11] Market Position and Growth Potential - The company maintains a strong position as a core hub for exports in Yiwu, with significant potential for import growth, particularly in consumer goods [4][3] - The company's innovative pilot projects in the import sector have successfully covered 193 SKUs, indicating robust progress in import reforms [3] - The overall import value in Yiwu has increased by 34% year-on-year, highlighting the growing demand for imported consumer products [3]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for China Tower (00788) as a first-time coverage [6]. Core Viewpoints - China Tower, established in 2014, is the world's largest communication infrastructure service provider, backed by the three major telecom operators in China, ensuring a solid industry leadership position [1][15]. - The company has adopted a "one body, two wings" strategy, focusing on operator business while expanding into cross-industry and energy operations, leading to steady revenue growth [2][24]. - The tower business remains a stable cash flow source, contributing over 70% of revenue, while the indoor distribution and energy businesses are rapidly growing [3][4]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - China Tower was established to address the issue of redundant construction in the telecom industry, providing site space, supporting facilities, maintenance, and power services [15][18]. - As of June 2025, the company has over 2.1 million sites and total assets exceeding 330 billion yuan [1][15]. Business Strategy - The "one body, two wings" strategy integrates operator business as the core, with intelligent connection and energy businesses as the wings, enhancing growth potential [2][24]. - The company has seen a shift in revenue structure, with the tower business's share decreasing from 93.4% in 2019 to 76.2% in H1 2025, while the contributions from intelligent connection and energy businesses are increasing [25][24]. Financial Performance - Revenue has grown from 71.82 billion yuan in 2018 to an expected 97.77 billion yuan in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.28% [2][28]. - Net profit has increased significantly from 2.65 billion yuan in 2018 to an expected 10.73 billion yuan in 2024, with a CAGR of 26.25% [2][31]. - The company has a high dividend payout ratio, increasing from 14.98% in 2018 to 68.19% in 2024, reflecting a commitment to shareholder returns [5][45]. Business Segments - The tower business is entering a phase of stock operation, with site sharing levels improving; as of June 2025, the number of tower sites reached 2.119 million [3][81]. - The indoor distribution business has seen rapid growth, with revenue increasing from 1.82 billion yuan in 2018 to 8.43 billion yuan in 2024, maintaining a CAGR of 29% [93]. - The energy business, focusing on battery swapping, has expanded rapidly, with over 320 cities offering services and a market share nearing 50% [4][34]. Market Position - China Tower leads the global market in terms of revenue, with 97.77 billion yuan in 2024, while also facing competition from American and Indian tower companies [53][56]. - The company benefits from a stable ownership structure, primarily held by the three major telecom operators, ensuring a solid operational foundation [20][24].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [7][24]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 6.234 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 9.38%, with a net profit of 806 million yuan, up 5.60% year-on-year [12][24]. - The increase in sales volume has driven revenue and profit growth, with the second quarter showing a revenue of 2.993 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.63% [12][24]. - The original drug business has seen significant growth, with revenue from original drugs, formulations, and trade reaching 3.655 billion, 1.171 billion, and 1.287 billion yuan respectively [2][13]. Revenue and Profit Analysis - The company reported a gross profit of 1.473 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, an increase of approximately 93 million yuan year-on-year, with a gross margin of 23.6%, down 0.6 percentage points [2][13]. - Domestic sales increased by 799.5 million yuan to 3.579 billion yuan, while overseas sales decreased by 260 million yuan to 2.655 billion yuan [2][13]. - The gross profit from original drugs, formulations, and trade was 1.031 billion, 312 million, and 105 million yuan respectively, with corresponding gross margins of 28.2%, 26.7%, and 8.2% [2][13]. Production and Sales Volume - The production volume for original drugs and formulations in the first half of 2025 was 57,800 and 25,500 tons, respectively, with sales volumes of 56,700 and 28,100 tons [3][15]. - The average selling price for original drugs was 64,500 yuan per ton, down 3.0% year-on-year, while the average selling price for formulations was 46,000 yuan per ton, down approximately 8.3% [3][15]. Future Growth Potential - The company is advancing the Liaoning Youchuang project, which is expected to provide new growth in the next 2-3 years, with a total investment budget of 3.48 billion yuan and a cumulative investment progress of 84.41% [4][23]. - Profit forecasts for the company indicate net profits of 1.47 billion, 1.78 billion, and 2.04 billion yuan for 2025 to 2027 [24].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 145.2 CNY based on a PE of 20X for 2025 [5][3]. Core Insights - The company is positioned to expand its growth through overseas markets and the two-wheeler market, leveraging its cost advantages and technological innovations [2][3]. - The company has a significant cost advantage, with a gross margin level exceeding 10 percentage points compared to industry peers, attributed to manufacturing cost efficiencies, technological innovations, and a favorable customer structure [1][27]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, established in 2003, focuses on automotive instruments and has expanded into smart cockpit products, maintaining a leading position in the automotive electronics industry [12][19]. - Key products include electronic combination instruments, full LCD combination instruments, and dual-screen instruments, contributing significantly to revenue [12][19]. Growth Drivers - **Overseas Market Expansion**: The company aims to increase its market share overseas, with a current share rising from 4% in 2022 to 6% in 2023, targeting markets in Korea, the USA, and Malaysia [2][33]. - **Two-Wheeler Market**: The company plans to leverage its automotive instrument capabilities to enter the two-wheeler market, establishing connections with major motorcycle manufacturers [2][37]. Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from 46.45 billion CNY in 2025 to 71.74 billion CNY by 2027, with net profit expected to rise from 11.15 billion CNY to 17.67 billion CNY during the same period [3][42]. - The company anticipates maintaining a gross margin of around 34% over the next few years, with specific product lines showing varied growth rates [41][42]. Valuation Metrics - The company is expected to achieve an EPS of 6.97 CNY in 2025, increasing to 11.05 CNY by 2027, with a corresponding PE ratio projected to be 20X for 2025 [3][42]. - The financial data indicates a strong growth trajectory, with significant increases in both revenue and profit margins anticipated [4][42].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Huashang Fund's Zhang Mingxin is a fund manager with profound research background and a systematic investment framework, managing a total fund size of 4.241 billion yuan as of the end of the second quarter of 2025. His investment philosophy of "value as the foundation, trend as the wings" enables him to maintain strong adaptability and competitiveness in complex market environments [2]. - Zhang Mingxin's two current public - offering funds, Huashang Equal - Growth and Huashang Advantage Industry, have excellent performance. As of September 22, 2025, their excess returns relative to similar funds reached 67.07% and 57.18% respectively, and their performance rankings are among the top 0.86% and 1.25% in similar funds [2]. - Another fund he manages, Huashang Zhiyuan Return, is a floating - rate fund, which reflects the confidence of Huashang Fund and the fund manager in its future performance [3]. - The product YDZC - Taihe Preferred No. 2 managed by Zhang Mingxin at Yingda Insurance Asset Management achieved an excess return of 75.05% relative to the CSI 300 index. From early 2021 to early 2025, it achieved a positive return of 44.01% while the market declined by 31.04% [3]. - Based on the fund TM attribution analysis, Zhang Mingxin shows significant and positive stock - selection ability and strong adaptability under different market conditions and value - growth style dominance [3]. - Zhang Mingxin is long - term optimistic about the AI industry trend, believing that overseas computing power is the starting point of a long - cycle, and AI applications are reshaping the world. He also believes that there may be systematic investment opportunities in new consumption, innovative drugs, and military trade and defense industries [4]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Investment Philosophy Kernel: Value as the Foundation, Trend as the Wings 1.1 Investment Framework - Zhang Mingxin believes that investment is to find the paradigm of "stocks will rise in this situation", and the essence of stock - selection is to find the market's feedback mechanism to information. He has formed an investment philosophy of industry trend investment driven by value [9]. - Value investment aims to achieve the highest - probability investment paradigm. He believes that value = deep value + growth value + gaming value, and mainly earns from company growth value and partial deep - value regression. He participates in different stages of the industry cycle [11]. - The core investment concept is industry trend investment driven by value, which can balance short - term and long - term performance. It requires comprehensive value assessment, cross - industry tracking, and finding alpha targets in booming industries. Zhang Mingxin is good at rotating investments in multiple industries [13]. 1.2 Views on the Market - In 2025, the market first strengthened due to the global large - model equalization wave led by DeepSeek, then declined due to the global trade war initiated by the US, and finally gradually returned to trading fundamentals after a series of policies [17][18]. - Zhang Mingxin continued to follow the investment philosophy of industry trend investment based on value. After the market decline in early April, he adjusted his positions and increased the allocation of overseas computing power sectors in May, achieving good returns [18]. - Looking forward to the second half of the year, the economy has a bottom line, policies support the capital market, and the AI industry's progress is expected to drive the long - term bullishness of the capital market [19]. 2. Fund Performance: Past Managed Funds Achieved Excess Returns of 75.05% in a Bear Market, and Currently Managed Funds Continue the Excellent Historical Performance 2.1 Overview of the Fund Manager's Managed Fund Performance - As of the end of the second quarter of 2025, Zhang Mingxin managed a total fund size of 4.241 billion yuan. The product YDZC - Taihe Preferred No. 2 achieved an excess return of 75.05% relative to the CSI 300 index from early 2021 to early 2025, ranking first among 68 similar products [21]. - Huashang Equal - Growth and Huashang Advantage Industry had excess returns of 67.07% and 57.18% respectively relative to similar funds as of September 22, 2025, and their performance rankings were among the top 0.86% and 1.25% in similar funds [22]. 2.2 Introduction to Fund Basic Information - Huashang Equal - Growth A (011369.OF) is a partial - stock hybrid fund. Zhang Mingxin took over on March 4, 2025, and the fund size was about 185 million yuan as of June 30, 2025 [24]. - Huashang Advantage Industry (000390.OF) is a flexible - allocation fund. Zhang Mingxin took over on March 12, 2025, and the fund size was about 4.055 billion yuan as of June 30, 2025 [25]. 3. Fund Performance: Currently Managed Products Have Outstanding Excess Performance, and Past Managed Products Had Positive Excess Returns in Each Full Year 3.1 Performance of Currently Managed Funds - Zhang Mingxin has strong performance - acquisition ability. From March 4, 2025, to September 22, 2025, Huashang Equal - Growth A had a fund return of 93.25%, ranking 37/4488 (top 0.82%) among similar funds, with an excess return of 71.23% relative to the benchmark [27]. - Huashang Advantage Industry A had a recent quarterly return of 79.29%, ranking 36/2326 (top 1.54%) among similar funds, with a Sharpe ratio of 4.83 [29]. 3.2 Historical Performance of Past Managed Products - From January 28, 2021, to January 19, 2025, the Taihe Preferred No. 2 product managed by Zhang Mingxin had positive excess returns in each full year, with excess returns of +22.69%, +29.48%, and +9.62% relative to the CSI 300 index in 2022, 2023, and 2024 respectively [33]. - Zhang Mingxin adheres to the investment idea based on fundamentals and industry trends, and achieved significant absolute and relative returns for clients by selecting booming growth industries during the volatile capital market from 2022 to 2024 [33]. 4. Source of Excess Returns: Significant and Positive Stock - Selection Ability and Strong Adaptability under Different Market Conditions and Value - Growth Style Dominance 4.1 Stock - Selection and Timing Ability of the Fund Manager - The T - M model is used to measure the stock - selection and timing ability of the fund manager. The analysis shows that the Taihe Preferred No. 2 fund showed significant and continuous positive stock - selection ability during certain periods [36][39]. 4.2 Strong Adaptability under Different Market Conditions and Value - Growth Style Dominance - The analysis shows that Zhang Mingxin showed strong adaptability under different market rise - fall ranges and different value - growth style dominance when managing the Taihe Preferred No. 2 fund, and had stronger adaptability to the small - cap style compared to the large - cap style [42][49]. 5. Conclusion - Zhang Mingxin is a fund manager with strong investment ability. His currently managed funds have excellent performance, and his past managed products also achieved good results. He is long - term optimistic about the AI industry and other sectors, and investors interested in relevant fields are recommended to pay attention to Huashang Equal - Growth, Huashang Advantage Industry, and Huashang Zhiyuan Return [50][52].

Group 1 - The report highlights a decline in social financing growth, with government bonds contributing negatively, while corporate bonds show strong performance [2][21] - There is a recovery in medium to long-term loans for residents, supported by new policy financial tools introduced by the end of September [2][22] - The M2-M1 spread has narrowed to a new low, indicating an increase in the liquidity of funds, driven by market risk appetite and the performance of the equity market [2][22] Group 2 - The PPI has shown a narrowing decline, indicating a potential entry into an upward cycle, with various macro policies yielding positive effects [4][28] - The CPI remains negative, primarily due to falling food prices, while core CPI shows resilience with a slight increase [4][30] - The report suggests that the PPI may turn positive in the first half of 2026, depending on the effectiveness of policies and improvements in demand [4][29] Group 3 - The titanium dioxide industry is closely linked to domestic demand and real estate, with opportunities remaining in external demand despite anti-dumping investigations [8][36] - The industry has a significant portion of outdated capacity, with about 20% of production facilities over 20 years old [8][37] - The report recommends focusing on leading companies with integrated operations, such as Longbai Group, which has a comprehensive titanium supply chain [8][37] Group 4 - Juhua Co., Ltd. is positioned to benefit from the rising demand for refrigerants, with a projected CAGR of 8.7% in revenue and 20.4% in net profit from 2013 to 2024 [10][32] - The company holds a leading market share in the production of third-generation refrigerants, with a production quota of 271,000 tons for 2025 [10][33] - Juhua's diverse product portfolio includes fluorinated chemicals and advanced petrochemical materials, enhancing its competitive edge in the market [10][34]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is Neutral (maintained) [7] Core Viewpoints - China is the world's largest producer of titanium dioxide (TiO2), with a projected capacity share of 56% in 2024, benefiting from the shutdown of several overseas facilities [1][13] - The domestic supply structure of titanium dioxide is characterized by "one strong leader, multiple strong players, and a long tail," with policies emphasizing energy consumption and production processes [2][22] - Domestic demand for titanium dioxide is strongly correlated with the real estate sector, while external demand still presents certain opportunities despite anti-dumping investigations from several countries [3][26] - The price spread in the titanium dioxide industry is currently at a historical low, with significant inventory accumulation due to pressures from both domestic and export demand [4][30] - Approximately 20% of the titanium dioxide production capacity in China is considered outdated, with a notable portion over 20 years old [5][32] Summary by Sections 1. Supply Structure and Market Dynamics - China has significantly increased its titanium dioxide production capacity from 45,000 tons in 2000 to 5.5 million tons in 2024, representing a 56% global share [1][20] - The major players in the titanium dioxide market include Longbai Group, Chemours, Tronox, and Venator, with Longbai Group leading with a capacity of 1.51 million tons [18][20] 2. Policy and Technological Requirements - Recent policies have set stringent requirements for energy consumption and production processes, favoring companies with low-cost and mature chlorination technology [2][22] - The 2023 energy efficiency benchmark and the 2024 industrial structure adjustment guide have implications for the sustainability of production methods [22][23] 3. Demand Correlation and Export Opportunities - The domestic consumption of titanium dioxide is projected at 2.89 million tons in 2024, with a strong correlation to housing starts and completions [24][26] - Despite anti-dumping measures, there are still opportunities for exports, particularly to countries with growing GDPs like India [26][28] 4. Industry Pricing and Inventory Levels - The average operating rate for titanium dioxide in China was 70% in the first eight months of 2025, leading to a significant price decline, with the price spread reaching its lowest since 2006 [4][30] 5. Outdated Production Capacity - The proportion of outdated production capacity in the titanium dioxide industry is approximately 19%, with ongoing assessments to phase out non-compliant facilities [5][32] 6. Focus on Leading Enterprises - Longbai Group is highlighted as a key player due to its comprehensive titanium industry layout, including titanium dioxide, sponge titanium, and zirconium products, with a strong vertical integration strategy [6][35][36]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking the first coverage [6]. Core Views - The company is positioned as a leading player in the fluorochemical industry, with steady revenue and net profit growth projected from 2013 to 2024, driven primarily by refrigerants and basic chemical products [1][28]. - The introduction of production quotas for third-generation refrigerants in 2024 is expected to enhance the company's market position, allowing it to benefit from the industry's upward trend [2]. - The company has developed a comprehensive product portfolio in fluoropolymers and has established itself as a leader in several categories, including PTFE and PVDF [3][27]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Zhejiang Juhua Co., Ltd. was established in 1998 and is a leading manufacturer in the fluorochemical and chlor-alkali chemical sectors in China [17]. - The company is controlled by the Juhua Group, with over 60% of its gross profit derived from refrigerants [1]. Revenue and Profit Growth - From 2013 to 2024, the company's revenue is expected to grow from 9.7 billion to 24.5 billion yuan, with a CAGR of 8.7%, while net profit is projected to increase from 254 million to 1.96 billion yuan, with a CAGR of 20.4% [28]. - In 2024, the revenue composition is expected to be 38% from refrigerants and 17% from petrochemical materials, with refrigerants contributing 64% to the gross profit [28]. Product and Market Position - The company holds a 34% market share in the third-generation refrigerant production quota, leading the industry with significant shares in R32, R125, and R134a [2]. - The company has developed a series of electronic fluorinated liquids after years of research, enhancing its product offerings in the fluorochemical sector [3]. Financial Projections - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 4.44 billion, 5.43 billion, and 6.59 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with corresponding EPS of 1.65, 2.01, and 2.44 yuan [4]. - The current price-to-earnings ratio is projected to decrease from 22.66 in 2025 to 15.28 in 2027, indicating a favorable valuation compared to peers [4]. Strategic Developments - The company is expanding its basic chemical product offerings to support its fluorochemical business, with significant investments in advanced petrochemical materials [4][27]. - The food packaging materials segment is also a focus, with the company holding the top global position in VDC/PVDC production capacity [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In September, the growth rate of social financing continued to decline moderately, the supporting effect of government bonds weakened, and medium - and long - term corporate loans and short - term household loans remained under pressure. However, there were also structural improvements, such as reduced bill padding, better year - on - year performance of medium - and long - term household loans, and increased capital activation [1][18]. - For the bond market, the data of structural repair has not yet exerted obvious pressure, but the supporting strength is also relatively limited. The market trend may depend more on institutional behavior and marginal changes in liquidity. Attention should be paid to the impact of deposit currentization and non - bank deposit trends on the micro - structure of bank liabilities, which may amplify the instability of liabilities and periodic frictions in the money market, so caution is still needed [1][18]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Social Financing Growth Rate Continues to Decline Slightly, and Corporate Bonds Perform Well - In September, the newly added social financing was 353.38 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 22.97 billion yuan; the year - on - year growth rate of social financing was 8.7%, a 0.1 - percentage - point decline from the previous month; the social financing growth rate (excluding government bonds) was 5.9%, a 0.002 - percentage - point increase from the previous month [7]. - The growth rate of social financing stock continued to decline slightly, and the contribution of government bonds was negative. Due to the high - base effect of government bond issuance last August, its driving effect on social financing was limited. Without the early use of debt - resolution quotas in the fourth quarter, the social financing growth rate may continue to decline this year [2][7]. - At the end of the quarter, there was credit padding, and the year - on - year increase continued to be lower. The bill interest rate rose slowly during the month, but the padding intensity in traditional large - credit months may be relatively limited. The time - point effect was prominent in the first half of this year, but weakened in the third quarter [2][7]. - Corporate bonds showed a bright year - on - year performance. Although the overall yield to maturity of corporate bonds increased in September, it may have benefited from policy support for science and technology innovation bonds and private enterprise bonds, boosting corporate financing willingness [2][7]. 3.2 Medium - and Long - Term Household Loans Recover - In September, the newly added RMB loans were 129 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 30 billion yuan. Short - term household loans decreased by 12.79 billion yuan year - on - year, medium - and long - term household loans increased by 2 billion yuan year - on - year, short - term corporate loans increased by 25 billion yuan year - on - year, medium - and long - term corporate loans decreased by 5 billion yuan year - on - year, bill financing decreased by 47.12 billion yuan year - on - year, and non - bank loans decreased by 3.56 billion yuan less year - on - year [10]. - Medium - and long - term corporate loans still faced pressure. In September, the manufacturing PMI rebounded, and sub - items such as new orders, new export orders, and production all rebounded, indicating improved demand. Affected by credit padding at the end of the quarter, the BCI corporate financing environment index and bill interest rate both increased. However, with the intensive implementation of "anti - involution" policies, the production arrangements and capital expenditure willingness of some enterprises may be cautious, suppressing financing demand. If the investment progress of new policy - based financial instruments accelerates, it is expected to boost credit and support medium - and long - term corporate loans [3][10]. - Short - term corporate loans continued to increase year - on - year in September. On the one hand, it may have benefited from the improvement in business prosperity, increasing the demand for short - term capital turnover. On the other hand, since May, short - term corporate loans have shown a bright year - on - year performance, with positive growth in all months except July, which may be supported by the expanded structural monetary policy tools at the beginning of May [3][10]. - Household credit performance was polarized, with medium - and long - term loans improving and short - term loans under pressure. The performance of commercial housing transactions improved slightly in September, which may have supported medium - and long - term household loans. Short - term loans still faced some pressure. Although the loan interest subsidy policy was implemented in September, its effect on boosting household leverage willingness needs further observation [3][11]. 3.3 The Gap between M2 and M1 Narrows to a New Low - M2 increased by 8.4% year - on - year, M1 increased by 7.2% year - on - year, and the gap between them narrowed. In September, RMB deposits were 221 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 153 billion yuan. Among them, household deposits increased by 76 billion yuan year - on - year, non - financial enterprise deposits increased by 14.94 billion yuan year - on - year, fiscal deposits decreased by 60.42 billion yuan year - on - year, and non - bank deposits decreased by 197 billion yuan year - on - year [16]. - The gap between M2 and M1 further narrowed to a new low, reflecting the continuous enhancement of capital activation. Driven by the improvement of market risk appetite and the profit - making effect of the equity market, current deposits increased [4][16]. - Affected by the high - base effect of the stock market's "924" market last year, non - bank deposits decreased more year - on - year, and household deposits increased more year - on - year. However, the transfer of household deposits is not over. The equity market still attracts funds. With the maturity of high - interest time deposits in the fourth quarter, some funds may flow to asset management products or the stock market [4][16]. - In the future, the trends of deposit currentization and non - bank deposit will continue, which may lead to marginal changes in the micro - structure of bank liabilities, further amplifying the instability of liabilities. As a result, the bank system's dependence on central bank liquidity injection may increase, and periodic frictions in the money market will also intensify [4][16].