Investment Rating - Buy rating maintained for the company [2] Core Views - The company's Q3 2024 performance showed significant improvement, with revenue reaching 8.016 billion yuan, up 26.7% YoY, and net profit attributable to shareholders reaching 2.24 billion yuan, up 42.8% YoY [2] - The company's gross margin in Q3 2024 was 44.5%, up 3.7 percentage points YoY and 6.8 percentage points QoQ [2] - The strong performance was driven by increased shipments of energy storage inverters and battery packs, which contributed to both volume and profit growth [3] - The company is expanding into emerging markets such as Southeast Asia, the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America, and is developing new products like balcony micro-storage and commercial storage systems, which are expected to drive future growth [3] Financial Performance Summary Revenue and Profit - 2024 Q3 revenue: 3.268 billion yuan, up 128.2% YoY and 14.1% QoQ [2] - 2024 Q3 net profit attributable to shareholders: 1.004 billion yuan, up 229.5% YoY and 25.1% QoQ [2] - 2024-2026 revenue forecast: 10.877 billion yuan, 14.337 billion yuan, and 17.149 billion yuan, with YoY growth rates of 45%, 32%, and 20% respectively [2] - 2024-2026 net profit attributable to shareholders forecast: 2.93 billion yuan, 3.892 billion yuan, and 4.696 billion yuan, with YoY growth rates of 64%, 33%, and 21% respectively [2] Key Financial Ratios - 2024-2026 EPS forecast: 4.54 yuan, 6.03 yuan, and 7.28 yuan [2] - 2024-2026 P/E ratios: 20.8x, 15.7x, and 13.0x [2] - 2024-2026 P/B ratios: 8.5x, 5.9x, and 4.3x [2] - 2024-2026 ROE: 41%, 38%, and 33% [2] Operational Highlights - Energy storage inverter shipments in Q3 2024: 190,000 units, up 45% QoQ [3] - Energy storage battery pack revenue in Q3 2024: 770 million yuan, up 62% QoQ [3] - Grid-tied inverter shipments in Q3 2024: 70,000 string inverters and 97,000 microinverters, down 62% and 38% QoQ respectively due to seasonal factors [3] Balance Sheet and Cash Flow - 2024-2026 total assets forecast: 13.675 billion yuan, 17.623 billion yuan, and 22.222 billion yuan [9] - 2024-2026 operating cash flow forecast: 2.587 billion yuan, 3.543 billion yuan, and 4.377 billion yuan [9] - 2024-2026 debt-to-equity ratio: 48.2%, 33.2%, and 24.0% [9]

Industry Overview - The REITs index fell by 0.01% this week, with operating rights REITs up 0.36% and property rights REITs down 0.53% [1] - The total market capitalization of the industry is 141.029 billion yuan, with a circulating market capitalization of 64.223 billion yuan [2] - REITs trading activity increased this week, with a weekly trading volume of 2.51 billion yuan (+43.4%) and a daily turnover rate of 0.8% (+0.2pct) [6] Market Performance - The CSI 300 index fell by 3.29%, the CSI 500 index fell by 4.79%, and the CSI All Bond Index rose by 0.14% this week [1] - REITs have shown a correlation of -0.14 with 10-year government bonds, -0.31 with 1-year government bonds, and 0.47 with convertible bonds since listing [1] - REITs have a correlation of 0.41 with the CSI 300 and 0.36 with the CSI 500 since listing [1] Key Events - CITIC Construction Investment Mingyang REIT and Huaxia Jinmao Commercial REIT announced changes in the use of recovered funds [1] - Five REITs, including Penghua Shenzhen Energy, announced fund income distribution [1] - Guojin China Railway Construction REIT released October operating data, showing a 3.03% month-on-month increase in daily traffic and a 22.63% month-on-month decrease in toll revenue [1] Investment Opportunities - Recent primary issuance has accelerated, with asset expansion and expansion bringing certain investment opportunities [6] - Investors are advised to pay attention to opportunities brought by improvements in the macro environment, policy environment, and infrastructure asset operations [6] Sector Performance - Highway REITs saw a trading volume of 820 million yuan (+78.4%) and a daily turnover rate of 0.8% (+0.4pct) [6] - Clean energy REITs had a trading volume of 440 million yuan (+75.8%) and a daily turnover rate of 1.0% (+0.4pct) [6] - Industrial park REITs recorded a trading volume of 520 million yuan (+36.3%) and a daily turnover rate of 0.8% (+0.2pct) [6] Valuation and Yields - The valuation yield of REITs this week ranged from 2.71% to 12.05%, with Huaxia China Communications Construction REIT having the highest yield at 12.05% [56] - P/NAV ratios ranged from 0.56 to 1.31, with Zhonghang Shougang Green Energy REIT and Harvest China Power Construction REIT having the highest P/NAV at 1.31 [56] Project Approvals - Currently, 23 REITs (including expansions) are in the approval and issuance stage, including 8 industrial park REITs, 3 energy REITs, and 5 logistics REITs [60] - Notable projects include Huaxia Huirun Youchao REIT (expansion) and Guojun Lingang Industrial Park REIT (expansion), which have been accepted and declared respectively [60]

Industry Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the industry [1] Core Views - The transportation sector fell by 3.3% this week, outperforming the broader market. Among the sub-sectors, only the bus index rose by 2.0%, while the top decliners were the aviation index (-9.2%), express delivery index (-4.5%), and logistics composite index (-3.7%) [1] - Airline capacity continues to recover, with key recommendations including Spring Airlines, Juneyao Airlines, and China Southern Airlines. International routes are also recovering, with China Eastern Airlines and China Southern Airlines' available seat kilometers (ASK) reaching 98% and 90% of 2019 levels, respectively [1] - Airport operations are benefiting from the recovery in air travel demand, with both aviation and non-aviation revenues expected to improve significantly [1] Airline Data - Daily flight operations for major airlines showed mixed week-over-week changes. For example, China Southern Airlines operated 2,135 flights daily, a decrease of 0.07% week-over-week, while Hainan Airlines increased its daily flights by 1.79% to 679.20 flights [1] - Average aircraft utilization rates declined week-over-week for most airlines, with China Southern Airlines at 7.40 hours/day, down 1.33%, and China Eastern Airlines at 7.30 hours/day, down 1.35% [1] Airport Data - Domestic and international flight operations at major airports showed mixed trends. For instance, Shenzhen Bao'an Airport handled 995.40 domestic flights daily, down 0.76% week-over-week, while Guangzhou Baiyun Airport saw a 0.98% increase in international flights to 224.60 daily [1] - Passenger throughput at major airports increased month-over-month, with Shenzhen Airport handling 5.67 million passengers, up 14.60%, and Shanghai Airport handling 10.92 million passengers, up 8.01% [63] Key Recommendations - **Juneyao Airlines**: Recommended with a 24-26 year P/E of 26.65X/15.97X/11.93X. The company's dual-brand and dual-hub strategy is expected to cover high, medium, and low-end passengers, with strong performance during the summer travel season [15] - **Spring Airlines**: Recommended with a 24-26 year P/E of 21.93X/17.88X/14.02X. As a leading low-cost carrier, the company has strong cost control and profitability, with significant market share in several regional airports [15] - **China Express Airlines**: Recommended with a 24-26 year P/E of 27.01X/11.53X/9.77X. As the only independent regional airline in China, the company is expected to benefit from policy support and increasing demand for regional air travel [15] - **China Southern Airlines**: Recommended with a 24-26 year P/E of 67.96X/20.73X/14.37X. The company is focusing on building comprehensive international hubs in Guangzhou and Beijing, with strong recovery in operations [15] - **China Eastern Airlines**: Recommended due to its strong presence in domestic and international routes, particularly in Japan, South Korea, and Thailand, with significant recovery potential in business and international routes [15] - **Shanghai Airport**: Suggested for attention with a 24-26 year P/E of 44.01X/33.86X/26.44X. The airport is expected to benefit from the recovery in aviation and non-aviation revenues, particularly from duty-free operations [15] Market Performance - The transportation sector fell by 3.3% this week, outperforming the broader market. Among the sub-sectors, only the bus index rose by 2.0%, while the top decliners were the aviation index (-9.2%), express delivery index (-4.5%), and logistics composite index (-3.7%) [145] - In the aviation and airport sector, only Juneyao Airlines (0.7%) and Xiamen Airport (0.3%) saw gains, while the top decliners were Hainan Airlines (-24.2%), CITIC Offshore Helicopter (-20.0%), and China Express Airlines (-4.0%) [149]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate sector [1] Core Insights - The real estate sector has shown weak performance, with the Shenwan Real Estate Index declining by 8.92% and the CSI 300 Index down by 3.29%, resulting in a relative return of -5.62% [1][16] - Recent policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market, including tax adjustments and support for home purchases, are expected to improve market conditions [7][17] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Market Review - The Shenwan Real Estate Index decreased by 8.92% this week, underperforming the broader market [1][16] - Key stocks in the sector showed varied performance, with some experiencing significant declines [16] 2. Industry News Tracking - Recent government policies have been introduced to boost the real estate market, including a reduction in the contract tax rate for certain housing purchases [17][21] - Local governments are implementing measures to support housing sales, such as adjusting down payment ratios and increasing public housing fund support [21] 3. Individual Stock Announcements and News Tracking - China State Construction held a performance briefing discussing the positive impact of recent debt policies on the construction industry [22] - Hefei Urban Construction announced unusual stock trading activity, indicating significant market interest [22] 4. Industry Fundamentals 4.1 Primary Housing Transaction Analysis - In the week of November 8-14, 38 key cities recorded a total of 29,382 new homes sold, with a year-on-year growth rate of -0.1% and a month-on-month decline of -3.1% [26] - The total transaction area was 3.314 million square meters, showing a year-on-year increase of 1.8% [26] 4.2 Secondary Housing Transaction Analysis - During the same week, 16 key cities saw 23,647 second-hand homes sold, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 23.2% [5][40] - The total area sold was 2.229 million square meters, with a year-on-year increase of 22.5% [5][40] 4.3 Inventory Situation Analysis - The inventory of commercial housing in 17 key cities was 193.487 million square meters, with a month-on-month change of -0.1% [6] 4.4 Land Market Supply and Transaction Analysis - Land supply this week was 61.105 million square meters, down 7.7% year-on-year, with a transaction area of 18.995 million square meters, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 53.8% [6] 4.5 Real Estate Industry Financing Analysis - Real estate companies issued a total of 4.88 billion yuan in credit bonds this week, marking a year-on-year increase of 136.9% [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal industry [2] Core Viewpoints - The coal industry is expected to maintain high prosperity due to the capacity cycle driven by supply-side reforms, which have effectively reduced excess capacity [15][16] - The report highlights the impact of the upcoming cold wave, which is anticipated to increase daily coal consumption [16] - The report recommends investing in leading companies with strong dividend attributes and integrated assets, such as China Shenhua and Shaanxi Coal, as well as companies like Xinjie Energy and Huaihe Energy [16] Summary by Sections 1. Core Viewpoints and Operational Tracking - The coal industry is experiencing a high level of prosperity, driven by significant reductions in excess capacity through supply-side reforms [15] - The report emphasizes that the actual release of new coal production capacity will be limited in the near future, despite the government's approval of new projects [15] - The demand for coal is expected to remain stable or increase, reinforcing its role in the energy system [15] 2. Coal Price Trends - The report provides insights into coal price indices and highlights the stability of coal prices at major ports [8] - It notes that the price of main coking coal at the port remains unchanged compared to the previous week, while year-on-year prices have decreased significantly [5] 3. Coal Inventory Tracking - The report tracks coal production levels and inventories, indicating a decrease in coal inventories at major ports [8] - It highlights the production levels of various coal companies, showing mixed results in production and sales figures [17][20] 4. Downstream Performance of the Coal Industry - The report discusses the performance of downstream sectors, including steel and cement, which are closely linked to coal demand [8] - It notes the profitability of steel production and the operational rates of blast furnaces, which are critical for coal consumption [8] 5. Weekly Performance of the Coal Sector and Individual Stocks - The report summarizes the weekly performance of the coal sector, indicating a decline in stock prices [8] - It provides forecasts for key companies in the coal industry, reflecting their expected profitability [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][10]. Core Insights - The company's Q3 profitability has significantly improved, with overseas market conditions showing upward trends. The Q3 report indicates a revenue of 3.069 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 7.3%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company reached 302 million, an increase of 44.8% year-on-year [2][4]. - The company is expected to benefit from the growing demand in emerging markets such as the Middle East, India, and Central Asia, as well as successful entry into the European market with its inverter products [2][4]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecasts**: - 2022A: 2,339 million - 2023A: 4,933 million - 2024E: 5,692 million - 2025E: 7,220 million - 2026E: 8,878 million - Year-on-year growth rates: 2023A: 111%, 2024E: 15%, 2025E: 27%, 2026E: 23% [2][5]. - **Net Profit Forecasts**: - 2022A: 82 million - 2023A: 286 million - 2024E: 564 million - 2025E: 954 million - 2026E: 1,255 million - Year-on-year growth rates: 2023A: 250%, 2024E: 97%, 2025E: 69%, 2026E: 31% [2][5]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2022A: 0.23 - 2023A: 0.80 - 2024E: 1.57 - 2025E: 2.65 - 2026E: 3.49 [2][5]. - **Market Capitalization**: - As of November 16, 2024, the market capitalization is approximately 16,840.54 million [2][5]. - **Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio**: - 2022A: 206.5 - 2023A: 58.9 - 2024E: 29.9 - 2025E: 17.6 - 2026E: 13.4 [2][5]. - **Price-to-Book (P/B) Ratio**: - 2022A: 16.4 - 2023A: 9.6 - 2024E: 7.5 - 2025E: 5.3 - 2026E: 3.8 [2][5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][5]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 49.946 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 7.6%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 7.6 billion yuan, up 5.2% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 31.3%, an increase of 1.9 percentage points year-on-year [3][4]. - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 18.926 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.4% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2.8%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.64 billion yuan, down 8.0% year-on-year and 7.8% quarter-on-quarter, with a gross margin of 29.5%, down 1.0 percentage points year-on-year [3][4]. - The company is expected to see significant growth in its energy storage business, which is anticipated to support rapid performance growth. The inverter segment has shown stable growth in shipments, and the energy storage segment has accelerated its shipment pace in Q3, particularly in the Americas, enhancing the company's global competitiveness [4][5]. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 11.19 billion yuan, 13.47 billion yuan, and 15.62 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 19%, 20%, and 16% [5]. - The current stock price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 16, 13, and 11 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [5]. Business Developments - The company plans to raise funds for building overseas production capacity, with a total investment of 1.93 billion yuan aimed at producing 50 GW of inverter equipment and 15 GWh of energy storage [4]. This initiative is expected to enhance global delivery capabilities and flexibility, thereby increasing global competitiveness and reducing risks associated with overseas trade [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative increase of over 15% in stock price compared to the benchmark index within the next 6 to 12 months [2][8]. Core Insights - The report highlights the successful results of the global Phase III clinical trial for Pimicotinib, a small molecule inhibitor for treating tenosynovial giant cell tumors (TGCT), which is expected to lead to a market application submission [1][2]. - The company anticipates significant revenue growth, projecting total revenue to increase from 46 million in 2023 to 562 million in 2024, representing a year-over-year growth rate of 134% [2][5]. - The net profit is expected to turn positive in 2024, with projections of 2 million, and further increasing to 28 million by 2025 [2][5]. Financial Projections - Total Revenue (in million): - 2023A: 46 - 2024E: 562 - 2025E: 639 - 2026E: 689 - Year-over-Year Growth Rate: - 2023A: -31% - 2024E: 134% - 2025E: 428% - 2026E: 8% [2][5]. - Net Profit (in million): - 2023A: -496 - 2024E: -432 - 2025E: 2 - 2026E: 28 [2][5]. - Earnings Per Share (in yuan): - 2023A: -0.73 - 2024E: -0.64 - 2025E: 0.00 - 2026E: 0.04 [2][5]. - Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio: - 2023A: -5.6 - 2024E: -6.4 - 2025E: 1359.5 - 2026E: 99.4 [2][5]. Market Position and Competitive Advantage - The report indicates that Pimicotinib has shown significant efficacy and safety in clinical trials, with a notable overall response rate (ORR) of 54.0% compared to the placebo group [1][2]. - The company has established a licensing agreement with Merck for Pimicotinib, which is expected to enhance cash flow and open up overseas markets [1][2]. - The report emphasizes the competitive edge of Pimicotinib over similar products in the market, particularly in terms of safety and efficacy [1][2].

评级： 增持（维持） 分析师：郭中伟 执业证书编号：S0740521110004 报告摘要 【本周关键词】：国内推出化债组合拳、黄金 ETF 持仓回落 投资建议：趋势的延续，维持行业"增持"评级 1）贵金属：本周，特朗普交易落地，美元指数走高，黄金 ETF 持仓量有所回落，中 长期看，美国远端国债实际收益率处于 2%左右历史高位，高利率下美国经济压力逐 步显现，而全球信用格局重塑的趋势不变，贵金属价格长期上行趋势不变。 2）大宗金属：本周，需求步入淡季，国内增量逆周期政策陆续出台，内盘商品价格 显著强于外盘。在长期供需格局重塑背景下，大宗金属价格进一步下行的空间有限， 随着国内外政策同步转向，行业有望迎来景气上行周期。 行情回顾：大宗金属涨跌互现：1）周内，LME 铜、铝、铅、锌、锡、镍本周涨跌幅 为-1.1%、0.9%、-0.7%、-2.7%、-0.1%、1.2%，SHFE 铜、铝、铅、锌、锡、镍的 涨跌幅为 0.8%、4.3%、0.3%、0.6%、1.9%、4.5%；2）COMEX 黄金收于 2694.8 美元/盎司，环比下跌 1.98%；COMEX 白银收于 31.45 美元/盎司，环比下跌 3.76% ...

Investment Rating - Buy (Maintained) [1] Core Views - Geely Auto's Q3 2024 performance met expectations, with a strong new product cycle driving growth [1] - Revenue in Q3 2024 reached RMB 60.378 billion, up 20.50% YoY, with net profit of RMB 2.455 billion, up 92.40% YoY [1] - The Galaxy brand and exports contributed significantly to revenue growth, with Galaxy E5 driving a 51.54% YoY increase in sales [1] - Zeekr's gross margin improved significantly, contributing to stable profitability for the group [1] - The company expects continued growth in Q4 2024 and 2025, driven by new models like the Galaxy L6/L7 and the StarShip 7 [1] Financial Performance Revenue and Profit - 2024E revenue is projected at RMB 216.289 billion, up 20% YoY, with net profit of RMB 16.209 billion, up 214% YoY [1] - 2025E revenue is expected to reach RMB 263.751 billion, with net profit of RMB 12.175 billion [1] - 2026E revenue is forecasted at RMB 311.402 billion, with net profit of RMB 14.540 billion [1] Key Financial Ratios - 2024E ROE is projected at 18%, with a P/E ratio of 8.0x [1] - 2025E ROE is expected to be 12%, with a P/E ratio of 10.6x [1] - 2026E ROE is forecasted at 13%, with a P/E ratio of 8.9x [1] Product and Market Performance - Galaxy brand sales in Q3 2024 reached 72,300 units, up 110.95% YoY, driven by the Galaxy E5 [1] - Exports in Q3 2024 totaled 116,600 units, up 60.25% YoY [1] - The average selling price (ASP) in Q3 2024 was RMB 130,000, up 0.58% YoY [1] Future Outlook - The company plans to launch new models, including the Galaxy L6/L7 and StarShip 7, which are expected to drive further growth [1] - The new Thor EM-i powertrain, with a thermal efficiency of 46.5%, is expected to enhance the performance of upcoming models [1] - The company anticipates continued growth in revenue and profitability, supported by a strong product pipeline and market expansion [1] Financial Projections Balance Sheet - 2024E cash and equivalents are projected at RMB 68.710 billion, up from RMB 36.775 billion in 2023A [2] - 2024E total assets are expected to reach RMB 205.500 billion, up from RMB 192.598 billion in 2023A [2] Income Statement - 2024E operating income is projected at RMB 216.289 billion, with operating profit of RMB 7.282 billion [2] - 2025E operating income is expected to reach RMB 263.751 billion, with operating profit of RMB 11.517 billion [2] Cash Flow - 2024E operating cash flow is projected at RMB 35.017 billion, up from RMB 22.342 billion in 2023A [2] - 2025E operating cash flow is expected to be RMB 21.025 billion [2]