Group 1: Fixed Income Plus Fund Tracking - The three categories of Fixed Income Plus products recorded positive returns, with mixed and stock-type funds rising by 0.74% and 0.66% respectively in December [2][13] - Fixed Income Plus funds have reduced their exposure to growth styles in equities while slightly increasing their stock positions [4][20] - The selected Fixed Income Plus fund portfolio outperformed the secondary bond index by 0.66% in December and by 0.98% in 2025 [5][24] Group 2: Pure Bond Fund Tracking - The medium to long-term pure bond fund index increased by 0.06% in December, with a total return of 0.83% for 2025 [31] - In December, pure bond funds adjusted their credit bond allocation upwards compared to November, indicating a strong consistency in credit strategy adjustments [6][34] - The selected pure bond fund portfolio outperformed the medium to long-term pure bond fund index by 0.16% in December and by 0.37% in 2025 [7][39]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report highlights the "leverage" characteristic of convertible bonds, with the China Securities Convertible Bond Index rising by 4.45% last week, marking the second-highest weekly increase since "924" in 2024. This performance reflects a significant increase in investment interest in convertible bonds [2][9]. - The report emphasizes that convertible bonds exhibit "leverage" during bull markets, as their parity follows the rise of underlying stocks, and their valuation is a function of stock trends. This "dual-driven valuation" can lead to convertible bonds outperforming their underlying stocks in certain phases [3][12]. - The report notes that among 110 equity-type convertible bonds, only one has both the stock and the bond breaking previous highs, while 43 bonds have surpassed their previous highs without the corresponding stock doing so, indicating a strong performance of convertible bonds relative to their underlying stocks [17][20]. Group 2 - The report discusses the investment behavior of secondary bond funds, which have been gradually increasing their stock allocation while reducing their allocation to convertible bonds. This trend suggests a reflection of high valuations and declining cost-effectiveness of convertible bonds [22]. - It is noted that the implied volatility of convertible bonds has been consistently higher than the actual volatility of underlying stocks since late September 2025, indicating a potential break from historical patterns and reinforcing the leverage characteristic of convertible bonds [12][23]. - The report also highlights that the implied three-month yield has entered a warning zone of less than -5%, and indicators of market overheating have been triggered, suggesting that short-term trading risks should be closely monitored [4][28].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [5] Core Insights - The cancellation of export tax rebates for lithium batteries and photovoltaic products is expected to accelerate the clearing of outdated production capacity and promote global expansion [2][19] - The energy storage sector is experiencing rising prices for systems and EPC contracts, driven by strong demand [50][51] - The wind power sector is advancing with multiple offshore wind projects receiving approval, indicating ongoing growth in domestic offshore wind energy [34][35] Summary by Sections Lithium Battery Sector - A meeting was held by four departments to regulate the competitive order in the lithium battery industry, proposing the cancellation of export tax rebates for lithium batteries [9][10] - The Chinese government plans to cancel or reduce export tax rebates for battery-related products starting April 1, 2026 [10] Photovoltaic Sector - The official cancellation of export tax rebates for photovoltaic products is set for April 1, 2026, marking the end of the "rebate dividend" era [19][20] - This policy is expected to lead to a surge in orders and installations before the policy takes effect, while long-term effects include the elimination of low-cost competition and a shift towards technological innovation and brand building [19][20] Wind Power Sector - Several offshore wind projects in Jiangsu have been approved, with ongoing progress in deep-sea offshore wind projects [34][35] - The approval of a 1GW offshore wind project in Guangdong and a 0.8GW project in Jiangsu highlights the sector's growth [34] Energy Storage Sector - In December, the average prices for energy storage systems and EPC contracts increased, with strong demand noted in regions like Xinjiang and Shanxi [50][51] - The adjustment of export tax policies for batteries is expected to increase export costs, potentially leading to a surge in exports before the policy takes effect [52] Power Equipment Sector - The CES2026 event showcased the successful launch of the Rubin platform, which is expected to enhance AI computing capabilities [60][61] - The Qinggui DC project has entered the feasibility study phase, marking significant progress in high-voltage direct current transmission projects [62] Hydrogen Energy Sector - The National Energy Group has undergone structural adjustments, establishing a new hydrogen energy division, emphasizing hydrogen as a key growth point in the economy [74][77] - The procurement of a hundred-ton SAF unit indicates ongoing investment in hydrogen technology [78]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Outperform" for the industry [6] Core Views - Precious metals are experiencing high volatility due to geopolitical tensions, with gold prices supported by weak manufacturing data and expectations of further monetary easing from the Federal Reserve [3][11] - Industrial metals, particularly copper, are facing supply disruptions amid geopolitical tensions, leading to fluctuating prices, while aluminum prices are influenced by international supply constraints and domestic demand [4][12][13] - The price of lithium carbonate has surged significantly, driven by strong demand from the electric vehicle and energy storage sectors, indicating potential investment opportunities in lithium-related stocks [17][18] - Other minor metals, such as rare earths, are showing stable price increases, with limited low-priced offerings in the market [19] Summary by Sections 1. Precious Metals - Geopolitical conflicts have heightened demand for safe-haven assets, leading to fluctuations in gold prices, with the market awaiting key economic data [10][11] - Key stocks to watch include Zijin Mining, Zhongjin Lingbao, and various H-shares [3][11] 2. Industrial Metals - Copper prices have seen a rise due to supply concerns from Chile and Ecuador, with market optimism for year-end prices [4][12] - Aluminum prices have been volatile, influenced by geopolitical tensions and domestic consumption patterns [13][16] - Notable stocks include Jiangxi Copper, Luoyang Molybdenum, and various H-shares [4][16] 3. New Energy Metals - Lithium carbonate prices have increased significantly, with futures prices nearing 150,000 yuan/ton, indicating strong demand from the supply chain [17] - Key stocks in this sector include Ganfeng Lithium, Tianhua, and others [18] 4. Other Minor Metals - Rare earth prices are on the rise, with limited low-priced offerings in the market, indicating a tightening supply [19] - Stocks to monitor include China Rare Earth, Northern Rare Earth, and others [19] 5. Market Review - The non-ferrous metals index rose by 8.6%, outperforming the broader market, with tungsten showing the largest gains among sub-sectors [22][30] - Top-performing stocks include Zhizhe New Materials and Dongyangguang, with significant price increases noted [33] 6. Valuation - The current P/E ratio for the non-ferrous metals industry stands at 32.29, with aluminum showing potential for valuation increases due to supply constraints [35]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [4][68]. Core Insights - The report highlights fluctuations in pig prices, with a focus on supply rhythm changes. As of January 9, the pig price was 12.58 CNY/kg, showing a week-on-week decrease of 0.09 CNY/kg. The report notes that the northern farming sector is experiencing tight supply due to previous overselling and disease impacts, while southern enterprises are increasing output, leading to weaker price adjustments [2][9][30]. - In the beef sector, calf prices are rising, and import restrictions on beef are expected to support long-term price increases. As of January 9, the price for fattening bulls was 25.51 CNY/kg, up 0.08% week-on-week, while calf prices reached 32.41 CNY/kg, up 2.43% week-on-week. The report anticipates a tightening supply of beef in the coming years due to a decrease in breeding cows [3][34]. - The poultry sector is affected by an outbreak of avian influenza in France, leading to tightened breeding imports. The price for white feather broilers was 7.64 CNY/kg as of January 9, down 0.08% week-on-week. The report suggests that the ongoing restrictions on imports may lead to a contraction in upstream capacity [3][41][45]. Summary by Sections Swine Industry - Pig prices are currently experiencing fluctuations, with a noted decrease in average weight of pigs being marketed. The average weight as of January 8 was 128.54 kg, down 0.12 kg week-on-week. The report indicates that the industry is facing losses, and capacity reduction policies are expected to continue, potentially leading to a long-term increase in pig prices [2][11][30]. - The average daily slaughter volume for the week was 189,800 pigs, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 5.13%. The report also mentions a decrease in frozen product inventory rates, which stood at 19.48% as of January 8, down 2.06 percentage points week-on-week [11][30]. Beef Industry - The report indicates that calf prices are on the rise due to increased demand from breeding farms. The long-term outlook for beef prices is positive, supported by import restrictions on beef that will limit supply [3][34]. Poultry Industry - The report notes that the outbreak of avian influenza has led to a halt in the pricing of broiler chicks, with current prices for white feather broilers slightly down. The ongoing restrictions on imports are expected to impact upstream production capacity [3][41][45]. Dairy Industry - The report states that raw milk prices are currently at a low point, with the price as of January 2 being 3.03 CNY/kg, unchanged week-on-week. The ongoing losses in the dairy sector are expected to lead to continued capacity reduction, with a potential stabilization of prices in 2026 [3][35]. Seed Industry - The report discusses the strengthening of intellectual property protection in the seed industry, highlighting recent cases that aim to combat infringement and improve market order. This regulatory environment is expected to support the revitalization of the seed industry [52].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "stronger than the market" rating for the defense and military industry [5] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the strong radiation effect of commercial aerospace, highlighting significant developments in the sector, including the approval of satellite frequency resources and the construction of additional satellites by SpaceX [37][38] - The report notes that the military industry index has outperformed the broader market, with a 13.63% increase compared to a 2.79% rise in the Shanghai Composite Index during the same period [10][37] - The report suggests that the commercial aerospace sector will continue to drive asset value reassessment across various industries, particularly in the rocket supply chain and satellite networks [39] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Market Review - The military industry index rose by 13.63% from January 5 to January 9, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 10.84 percentage points [10][16] - The aerospace sector showed a significant increase of 34.57%, while the low-altitude economy sector performed relatively flat [21][24] 2. Key Developments in the Industry - The report highlights the approval of plans to accelerate the construction of advanced manufacturing in Guangzhou, which includes support for satellite constellation projects [37] - The report mentions the successful launch of SpaceX's Falcon 9 rocket, which deployed an Earth observation satellite [41] 3. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on specific companies within the rocket sector, overseas commercial aerospace, satellite technology, nuclear fusion, stealth materials, deep-sea technology, engines, unmanned systems, AI, aircraft, and land equipment [40]

Group 1 - The report indicates that the liquidity environment remains loose despite a significant net withdrawal of 1.655 trillion yuan in OMO operations during the week of January 3 to January 9, 2026, with the DR001 rate staying below 1.3% [2][15][31] - The central bank's recent meetings suggest a shift in attitude towards more flexible monetary policy tools, including potential rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio adjustments to support economic growth [4][34][33] - The upcoming government bond issuance is expected to increase significantly, with a net supply of approximately 1.3 trillion yuan anticipated in January, which may lead to a rise in the central bank's bond purchases [35][36][55] Group 2 - The interbank lending market shows a slight decrease in Shibor rates, with the 1-year Shibor rate falling to 1.65% as of January 9, 2026, indicating a trend of declining borrowing costs [9][63] - The issuance of interbank certificates of deposit has seen a net repayment of 156.4 billion yuan, with the total issuance rising to 1.764 trillion yuan, reflecting a shift in funding dynamics among different types of banks [10][68] - The report highlights that the success rate of issuance for state-owned banks has improved, while other bank types have seen a decline, indicating varying levels of demand and market confidence [69]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the basic chemical industry, highlighting strong performance in various sub-sectors and suggesting potential investment opportunities in specific companies [3][4][5]. Core Insights - The restructuring of China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec) and China Aviation Oil (China National Aviation Fuel) is a significant development, marking the first major state-owned enterprise restructuring in 2026, which is expected to enhance the production and application of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) [3]. - The domestic urea market has shown signs of recovery, with prices rising to over 1700 RMB per ton, a 9% increase from the lowest point in October 2025, driven by steady demand and reduced supply [3][4]. - The report identifies several investment themes, including the competitiveness of domestic tire manufacturers, the potential recovery in consumer electronics, and the resilience of certain cyclical industries [4][5][7]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 3.82%, the ChiNext Index by 3.89%, and the CSI 300 Index by 2.79%. The CITIC Basic Chemical Index increased by 5.39%, and the Shenwan Chemical Index by 5.03% [13][16]. - The top-performing sub-sectors included rubber additives (17.27%), electronic chemicals (15.08%), and modified plastics (9.87%) [16]. Key Industry Dynamics - Sinopec and China Aviation Oil's restructuring aims to streamline operations and enhance the production of SAF, positioning the companies for future growth in a low-carbon economy [3]. - The urea market is expected to continue its upward trend, with a forecast for moderate price increases in the near future due to favorable supply-demand dynamics [3][4]. Investment Themes - **Tire Industry**: Domestic tire manufacturers are becoming increasingly competitive, with recommended stocks including Sailun Tire, Senqcia, General Tire, and Linglong Tire [4]. - **Consumer Electronics**: A gradual recovery in consumer electronics is anticipated, with upstream material companies expected to benefit. Recommended stocks include Dongcai Technology, Stik, Lite-On Optoelectronics, and Ruian New Materials [4]. - **Cyclical Industries**: Focus on industries with strong resilience and inventory destocking, particularly in phosphate and fluorine chemicals, as well as polyester filament [5][7]. - **Vitamin Supply**: Attention is drawn to vitamin products due to supply disruptions from BASF, which may lead to market imbalances [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [4] Core Insights - In January, international pulp prices increased, with Arauco softwood pulp rising by $10 to $710 per ton and hardwood pulp by $20 to $590 per ton, providing cost support and potential stabilization in paper prices [3][5] - The report highlights the upcoming announcement from the U.S. regarding the tariff decision related to Trump's global tariff measures, which could impact the export chain [3][5] - E-commerce performance in December for personal care products showed overall weakness, with some emerging brands maintaining rapid growth [3] Summary by Sections Export Chain - The U.S. is expected to announce the tariff decision next week, with a predicted 28% chance of supporting current tariffs. If rejected, tariffs imposed in 2025 may be lifted [5] - The postponement of tariffs on upholstered furniture and cabinets until 2027 may alleviate CPI increases in the U.S. and support demand recovery [5] - Companies like Dream Lily and Fashion Bed Group are expanding into the Canadian market, while Zhongxin Co. plans to establish a factory in the U.S. to enhance global competitiveness [5] Home Furnishing - The furniture manufacturing industry's revenue from January to November 2025 decreased by 9.1% year-on-year, with a widening decline in residential sales [5] - IKEA announced the closure of several stores in China while shifting focus to smaller stores and online channels [5] - The report suggests that despite the ongoing adjustment period in the home furnishing and real estate sectors, valuations are at historical lows, presenting potential investment opportunities [5] Paper and Packaging - As of January 9, 2026, prices for various paper types showed mixed trends, with some prices remaining stable while others decreased [5] - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong production capacity and fiber supply, such as Nine Dragons Paper and Shanying International [5] Consumer Goods - Sales growth for sanitary napkins on major e-commerce platforms showed a decline, while some brands on Douyin experienced rapid growth [5] - The report highlights strategic collaborations and product launches by companies like Morning Glory and the potential for recovery in the stationery sector [5] New Tobacco Products - New regulations regarding non-combustible nicotine products will take effect in April 2026, indicating a shift towards a more concentrated market structure [5] - Companies like Smoore International are expected to benefit from the global rollout of their products [5] Textile and Apparel - The textile and apparel sector underperformed the market, with a reported increase in net profit for companies like Bailong Oriental, driven by strong order volumes [5]

行 业 研 医药生物 2026 年 01 月 11 日 医药生物 究 医药科技开门红，小核酸 FXIa 即将催化（建议 关注瑞博、靖因） 投资要点： 行 业 定 期 报 告 行情回顾：本周（2026 年 1 月 5 日- 2026 年 1 月 9 日）中信医药指数上涨 7.7%，跑赢沪深 300 指数 4.9 pct，在中信一级行业分类中排名第 5 位；2026 年初至今中信医药生物板块指数上涨 7.7%，跑赢沪深 300 指数 4.9 pct，在中 信行业分类中排名第 5 位。本周涨幅前五的个股为：创新医疗（+61.0%）、三 博脑科（+56.2%）、美好医疗（+56.1%）、前沿生物（+56.0%）、悦康药业 （+40.6%）。 FXIa 抑制剂即将迎来催化，小核酸方向建议关注瑞博、靖因：血栓性 疾病全球每年发病人群高达 2670 万，目前针对血栓性疾病的抗凝药物主要 包括华法林、肝素和直接口服剂，全球抗凝血药物市场预计在 2024 年高达 330 亿美金。但是现有抗凝血药物的作用是非选择性的，既影响凝血的内 源性途径，也影响外源性途径以及共同下游途径，这种治疗方法不可避免 地会损害正常应对损伤的止血反应 ...