证券研究报告|专题研究 25年05月05日 华福证券 AI浪潮中，谁将盈利突围？ 证券分析师： 研究助理： 周浦寒 S0210524040007 杨逸帆 S0210124110046 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 华福证券 投资要点 风险提示：历史经验不代表未来;行业不确定性风险;国内经济复苏速度不及预期;海外降息节奏不及预 期;地缘政治风险。 2 华福证券 华福证券 "宏观叙事→股价驱动→财务筛选"方法论：我们认为，技术革命中主要受益的是三类"风口"公司 。对应股价，第一波行情驱动是估值，走出第二波行情多需要盈利验证。财务视角下，我们寻找到3 个领先盈利的信号。最终，希望筛选出：AI浪潮中，或将率先盈利、走出第二波行情的核心标的。 宏观叙事中，技术革命中3类"风口"上的公司或受益腾飞：1）上游"卖铲子"，2）技术新需求， 3）赋能全行业。而且，我们可以通过普及率、渗透率，观察产业的整体进展。 公司股价中，行情驱动或从估值转向盈利。第一波行情的股价多由估值驱动，而股价走出第二波行情 ，就需要得到公司业绩的验证。2次技术革命、3类"风口"公司，都验证了这一股价驱动因素的转变 。映射当下，多数AI公司或已上涨"估 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative price increase of over 20% against the market benchmark within the next six months [19]. Core Views - The company has shown resilience in its operations, achieving stable growth in its three-piece can business and improved performance in its two-piece can segment. The acquisition of COFCO has significantly enhanced the company's scale and profitability [4][5]. - The company is expected to benefit from a recovery in demand and an improved industry landscape, with a forecasted increase in net profit for 2025-2027 [6][19]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company reported revenue of 13.673 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.23% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 791 million yuan, an increase of 2.06% year-on-year. In Q1 2025, revenue surged to 5.574 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 56.96%, with net profit reaching 665 million yuan, up 137.91% year-on-year [3][6]. - The company's gross profit margin and net profit margin for 2024 were 16.3% and 5.7%, respectively, showing improvements compared to the previous year. However, Q1 2025 saw a decline in gross profit margin to 13.6% due to seasonal demand fluctuations and raw material price volatility [6][3]. Acquisition Impact - The successful acquisition of COFCO Packaging has led to a significant increase in total assets, reaching 30.137 billion yuan by the end of Q1 2025, a growth of 66.56% from the beginning of the period. The acquisition also contributed 461 million yuan in investment income [5][6]. - The acquisition has resulted in a rise in expenses during Q1 2025, primarily due to increased financial costs associated with the merger and acquisition activities [5]. Dividend Policy - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 1.20 yuan per share (before tax) to all shareholders, totaling approximately 307 million yuan, which represents 46.17% of the net profit attributable to shareholders for the year [6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [7][22]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 707.6 billion yuan in Q1 2025, reflecting a growth of 0.87%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 13.3 billion yuan, down by 13.6% [2][4]. - The commercial segment showed steady growth with a revenue of 649 billion yuan, up by 2.6%, and a net profit of 8.3 billion yuan, up by 0.2%. Notably, the innovative drug business achieved a revenue of 125 billion yuan, marking a significant increase of 23.2% [3][4]. - The industrial segment faced pressure with a revenue of 58.9 billion yuan, down by 15.3%, and a net profit of 5.32 billion yuan, down by 21.1%. However, multiple innovative drug research pipelines are progressing steadily [5]. - The company's gross margin was 10.25%, a decrease of 1.19 percentage points, and the net margin was 2.32%, down by 0.34 percentage points [6]. Financial Analysis - The company slightly adjusted its profit forecast for 2025-2027, estimating revenues of 2891 billion yuan, 3057 billion yuan, and 3250 billion yuan respectively, with net profits of 47.8 billion yuan, 53.7 billion yuan, and 60.8 billion yuan [7]. - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios are projected to be 14, 12, and 11 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [7]. Summary of Financial Data - The company’s revenue for 2023 is projected at 260,295 million yuan, with a growth rate of 12%. The net profit is expected to be 3,768 million yuan, reflecting a decline of 33% [8]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at 1.29 yuan, with a P/E ratio of 13.9 [8].

公 司 华福证券 医院 2025 年 05 月 06 日 华厦眼科（301267.SZ） 买入（维持评级） 研 究 25Q1 收入增长稳健，员工持股计划有望增强人 才吸引力 投资要点： 公 司 财 报 点 事件：公司公布 2024 年年报及 2025 年一季报，2024 年公司实现收入 40.3 亿 元（+0.35%），实现归母净利润 4.29 亿元（-35.6%）；2025Q1 公司实现收入 10.93 亿元（+11.7%），实现归母净利润 1.5 亿元（-4%），业绩符合预期。 此外，公司公布设立 2025 年员工持股计划。 分业务：屈光和视光实现稳健增长。 评 分业务看，24 年公司屈光业务实现收入 12.96 亿元（+7.44%），毛利率 52.05% （-2.45pct），视光业务实现收入 10.69 亿元（+5.15%），毛利率 45.57%（-4.49pct）， 白内障业务实现收入 8.73 亿元（-11.56%），毛利率 35.16%（-8.53pct），眼后段 业务实现收入 5.36 亿元（+9.21%），毛利率 39.64%（-4.99pct），其他业务收入 2.53 亿元（-5.63%） ...

证券研究报告|行业专题报告 公用事业 行业评级 强于大市（维持评级） 25年5月6日 固废分红趋势明显，水务盈利能力改善，环保设备复苏态势初现 ——环保行业2024&1Q25业绩综述 证券分析师：严家源 执业证书编号：S0210524050013 证券分析师：尚硕 执业证书编号：S0210524050023 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 华福证券 华福证券 投资要点 n 环保设备：1Q25复苏态势初现。环保设备板块28家公司中，2024年有8家实现归母净 利润同比增长、1家扭亏为盈，同比下降的有9家，另有4家出现亏损、6家持续亏损； 1Q25，有10家实现归母净利润同比增长、3家扭亏为盈，同比下降的有6家，另有1家 出现亏损、8家持续亏损。1Q25，我国环卫车大盘累计销售环卫车15483台，同比增长 3.5%，为近年来首次正增长，行业呈现复苏态势。2025年3月，生态环境部首次扩大 行业覆盖范围，新增钢铁、水泥、铝冶炼行业。碳监测、节能降碳相关设备企业有望受 益。 n 投资建议 n 固废处理盈利能力、现金流情况持续向好、分红趋势明显，"焚烧+IDC"有望打开第二成 长曲线；水务及水处理降本增效初见成效，盈利改 ...

华福证券 基础化工 2025 年 05 月 06 日 行 业 研 究 基础化工 新材料周报：PEEK 材料国产替代再下一城，硫 化物全固态电池迎来新突破 投资要点： 行 业 定 期 报 告 本周行情回顾。本周（2025.4.21-2025.4.25），Wind 新材料指数收报 3504.57 点，环比上涨 1.44%。其中，涨幅前五的有润阳科技(19.07%)、阿科力(10.75%)、 祥源新材(10.71%)、八亿时空(10.27%)、泛亚微透(10.25%)；跌幅前五的有长阳 科技(-5.83%)、瑞联新材(-4.82%)、安集科技(-3.7%)、凯盛科技(-3.43%)、道恩 股份(-3.09%)。六个子行业中，申万三级行业半导体材料指数收报 5944.57 点， 环比上涨 1.41%；申万三级行业显示器件材料指数收报 1003.06 点，环比上涨 1.22%；中信三级行业有机硅材料指数收报 5797.72 点，环比下跌 1.33%；中信 三级行业碳纤维指数收报 1239.4 点，环比上涨 5.65%；中信三级行业锂电指数 收报 1645.05 点，环比上涨 0.22%；Wind 概念可降解塑料指数收报 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Insights - The company reported a robust growth in patient visits, achieving 1.21 million visits in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 12.7%, which aligns with expectations [3] - The company continues to expand its store network, with the opening of its first branch in the Southwest region, the Chengdu Dayuan branch, and has established over 80 branches across more than 20 cities in China and Singapore [4][5] - The company is actively investing in Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM) AI, planning to launch smart hardware and AI doctor assistants to enhance diagnostic capabilities and improve service efficiency, which is expected to increase customer retention and revenue per customer [6] Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The TCM healthcare service industry is experiencing strong demand and is expected to enter a high growth phase supported by favorable policies. The company, as a leading chain in TCM healthcare services, has excellent cross-regional operational capabilities and significant long-term growth potential. Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 3.81 billion, 4.84 billion, and 6.09 billion RMB, respectively, with net profits of 428 million, 569 million, and 742 million RMB for the same period. The "Buy" rating is maintained [7][10]

华福证券 股份制银行Ⅲ 2025 年 05 月 05 日 公 司 研 究 浦发银行（600000.SH） 2025 一季报点评—营收增速回正，资产质量改善 投资要点： 营收增速回正 公 司 财 报 点 评 浦发银行 2025Q1 营收增速回正，利润继续正增长。公司 2025 一 季度营收增速为 1.3%，环比 2024 全年提升 2.9pct；公司 2025Q1 利润 增速为 1.02%，增速较 2024 全年回落，原因主要是公司加大拨备计提 力度、夯实资产质量，拨备对利润的贡献边际减少。同业对比来看， 浦发银行一季度营收和归母净利润同比增速均在股份行中排名第 2，业 绩增长能力优于可比同业。 浦发银行营收回正的主要驱动因素来自利息净收入增速转正，同 时非息业务正贡献营收。公司 2025Q1 利息净收入同比增长 0.48%，增 速较 2024 全年提升 3.62pct，利息净收入正增长一方面来自规模贡献， 另一方面来自净息差的负向拉动作用减轻。非息方面，浦发银行 2025Q1 非息业务走势明显优于可比同业，公司 2025Q1 手续费和佣金 收入、其他非息收入分别同比增长-0.03%、4.47%，增速较 202 ...

公 司 研 究 华福证券 资产端：收益率为 3.21%，同比下降 44bp。其中，同业存放利率、 贷款利率、金融投资利率分别同比下行 56bp、54bp、24bp。 负债端：成本率为 1.39%，同比下降 36bp，其中，同业拆入利率、 存款利率分别同比下降 50bp、34bp。 零售、对公贷款均同比少增 招商银行（600036.SH） 其他非息压制业绩表现——2025 一季报点评 投资要点： 受其他非息高基数压制，业绩有所下滑 公 司 财 报 点 评 营收增速、利润增速均较 2024 年有所下降。2025Q1，营收、归母 净利润增速分别为-3.1%、-2.1%，分别较 2024 年下降 2.6pct、3.3pct。 主要受一季度利率上升的影响，债券和基金投资的公允价值下降， 2025Q1 其他非息收入较去年同期下降 22.2%。 净息差降幅明显收窄，净利息收入实现正增长 2025Q1，净利息收入首次扭转负增长趋势实现正增长，同比增速 为 1.9%，主要受益于净息差降幅收窄。一季度，净息差为 1.91%，同 比 2024Q1 降幅为 11bp，较 2024 年降幅已明显收窄（17bp）；环比 2024 年净息 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][5]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 390 million yuan in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 18.16%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 60 million yuan, up 5.60% year-on-year [3]. - The company is focusing on the growth of its digital energy segment, which saw a significant year-on-year increase of 1216%, with revenue reaching 10.01 million yuan in Q1 2025 [4]. - The company is expected to benefit from a cyclical recovery and internal cost reduction, with projected revenues of 2.11 billion yuan, 2.52 billion yuan, and 3.01 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [5]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenue from variable frequency drives of 230 million yuan (up 18% year-on-year) and servo systems revenue of 130 million yuan (up 10% year-on-year) [4]. - The company’s overseas revenue reached 99 million yuan in Q1 2025, a 29% increase year-on-year, while domestic revenue was 280 million yuan, up 15% year-on-year [4]. - The company’s R&D investment in Q1 2025 was 50 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.8% [4]. Earnings Forecast - The forecast for net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025, 2026, and 2027 is 330 million yuan, 390 million yuan, and 480 million yuan respectively [5]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.55 yuan, 1.86 yuan, and 2.25 yuan respectively [7]. - The company is expected to maintain a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 33, 27, and 22 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [7].