宏 观 研 究 2025 年 05 月 07 日 降息降准稳楼市股市，提振内需促关税谈判 ——5.7 一揽子金融政策解读 投资要点： 宏 观 点 评 降准如期兑现，是兼顾流动性投放和稳汇率目标的高效率和低成本最优选择。与 结构性工具利率下调相配合稳定银行净息差并提升利率传导效率，预计将有力保障居 民和企业部门信贷投放稳步增长。当前外部环境不确定性整体抬升的背景下，一方面 提振消费内需稳定信心的要求将稳汇率目标的短期重要性推升起来；另一方面 4 月以来 房地产市场需求再度波动中趋于下行，房地产市场稳定态势仍需货币等政策工具发力进 行巩固。两大目标同时实现的要求，意味着央行需优化数量性工具使用结构，既避免购 债类工具频繁使用引发长期利率下行和贬值压力重现，又能够高效提供充足流动性以有 力保障和促进居民和企业部门债务融资需求稳步增长，降准就构成当前阶段的高效率、 低成本、双均衡的最优选择。央行决定全面降准 0.5 个百分点，预计释放流动性约一万 亿，可望促进居民和企业贷款稳定增长，并同时有助于持续实现稳汇率双重目标。央行 同步决定下调支农支小再贷款等结构性货币工具利率 0.25 个百分点，有助于共同降低 商业银行负 ...

公 华福证券 司 研 究 恩华药业（002262.SZ） 业绩符合预期，看好全年业绩稳健增长 投资要点： 事件：公司发布 2025 一季报，2025 一季报实现收入 15.1 亿元（同比 +11.3%），归母净利润 3.0 亿元（同比+13.4%），扣非净利润 3.0 亿元（同 比+12.2%）。 公 司 财 报 点 评 25Q1 各项费用率有所增加，股权激励费用影响公司利润：2025 年第 一季度公司销售毛利率和销售净利率分别为 74.7%和 19.9%。2025 年第一 季度，公司销售费用率、管理费用率、研发费用率和财务费用率分别为 33.6%（同比+1.5pct）、4.9%（同比+1.4pct）、12.7%（同比+2.2pct）、和-0.2% （同比+0.3pct）。公司管理费用同比增加主要系股权激励费用和特许权使用 费摊销增加所致，研发费用增加主要系研发投入增加和股权激励费用影响 所致。 | 日期 | 2025-04-30 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价： | 22.33 元 | | 总股本/流通股本(百万股) | 1,016.18/881.79 | | 流通 A 股市值(百万元) | 1 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative price increase of over 20% compared to the market benchmark within the next six months [5][17]. Core Insights - The company is experiencing accelerated overseas expansion and has a sufficient backlog of orders, which supports growth prospects, with a significant performance increase expected in 2025 [2][4]. - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 8.27 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 18.44%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 648 million yuan, up 12.06% year-on-year [3]. - The company's energy storage business is developing steadily, with a revenue of 8.19 billion yuan in 2024 and a gross margin of 18.22%, which is better than its peers [4]. - The company has a strong focus on technological innovation and cost reduction, which has led to an increase in R&D expenditure as a percentage of revenue [3][4]. - The company is strategically expanding into four key overseas regions: Europe, North America, the Middle East, and Asia-Pacific, with expectations of significant growth in the European market [4]. Financial Performance Summary - The company forecasts net profits of 820 million yuan, 1.075 billion yuan, and 1.25 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 27%, 31%, and 16% [5][6]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 4.61 yuan, 6.05 yuan, and 7.03 yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 16, 12, and 11 [5][6]. - The company’s total revenue is expected to reach 12.06 billion yuan in 2025, with a growth rate of 46% [6].

证券研究报告|专题研究 25年05月05日 华福证券 AI浪潮中，谁将盈利突围？ 证券分析师： 研究助理： 周浦寒 S0210524040007 杨逸帆 S0210124110046 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 华福证券 投资要点 风险提示：历史经验不代表未来;行业不确定性风险;国内经济复苏速度不及预期;海外降息节奏不及预 期;地缘政治风险。 2 华福证券 华福证券 "宏观叙事→股价驱动→财务筛选"方法论：我们认为，技术革命中主要受益的是三类"风口"公司 。对应股价，第一波行情驱动是估值，走出第二波行情多需要盈利验证。财务视角下，我们寻找到3 个领先盈利的信号。最终，希望筛选出：AI浪潮中，或将率先盈利、走出第二波行情的核心标的。 宏观叙事中，技术革命中3类"风口"上的公司或受益腾飞：1）上游"卖铲子"，2）技术新需求， 3）赋能全行业。而且，我们可以通过普及率、渗透率，观察产业的整体进展。 公司股价中，行情驱动或从估值转向盈利。第一波行情的股价多由估值驱动，而股价走出第二波行情 ，就需要得到公司业绩的验证。2次技术革命、3类"风口"公司，都验证了这一股价驱动因素的转变 。映射当下，多数AI公司或已上涨"估 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative price increase of over 20% against the market benchmark within the next six months [19]. Core Views - The company has shown resilience in its operations, achieving stable growth in its three-piece can business and improved performance in its two-piece can segment. The acquisition of COFCO has significantly enhanced the company's scale and profitability [4][5]. - The company is expected to benefit from a recovery in demand and an improved industry landscape, with a forecasted increase in net profit for 2025-2027 [6][19]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company reported revenue of 13.673 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.23% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 791 million yuan, an increase of 2.06% year-on-year. In Q1 2025, revenue surged to 5.574 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 56.96%, with net profit reaching 665 million yuan, up 137.91% year-on-year [3][6]. - The company's gross profit margin and net profit margin for 2024 were 16.3% and 5.7%, respectively, showing improvements compared to the previous year. However, Q1 2025 saw a decline in gross profit margin to 13.6% due to seasonal demand fluctuations and raw material price volatility [6][3]. Acquisition Impact - The successful acquisition of COFCO Packaging has led to a significant increase in total assets, reaching 30.137 billion yuan by the end of Q1 2025, a growth of 66.56% from the beginning of the period. The acquisition also contributed 461 million yuan in investment income [5][6]. - The acquisition has resulted in a rise in expenses during Q1 2025, primarily due to increased financial costs associated with the merger and acquisition activities [5]. Dividend Policy - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 1.20 yuan per share (before tax) to all shareholders, totaling approximately 307 million yuan, which represents 46.17% of the net profit attributable to shareholders for the year [6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [7][22]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 707.6 billion yuan in Q1 2025, reflecting a growth of 0.87%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 13.3 billion yuan, down by 13.6% [2][4]. - The commercial segment showed steady growth with a revenue of 649 billion yuan, up by 2.6%, and a net profit of 8.3 billion yuan, up by 0.2%. Notably, the innovative drug business achieved a revenue of 125 billion yuan, marking a significant increase of 23.2% [3][4]. - The industrial segment faced pressure with a revenue of 58.9 billion yuan, down by 15.3%, and a net profit of 5.32 billion yuan, down by 21.1%. However, multiple innovative drug research pipelines are progressing steadily [5]. - The company's gross margin was 10.25%, a decrease of 1.19 percentage points, and the net margin was 2.32%, down by 0.34 percentage points [6]. Financial Analysis - The company slightly adjusted its profit forecast for 2025-2027, estimating revenues of 2891 billion yuan, 3057 billion yuan, and 3250 billion yuan respectively, with net profits of 47.8 billion yuan, 53.7 billion yuan, and 60.8 billion yuan [7]. - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios are projected to be 14, 12, and 11 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [7]. Summary of Financial Data - The company’s revenue for 2023 is projected at 260,295 million yuan, with a growth rate of 12%. The net profit is expected to be 3,768 million yuan, reflecting a decline of 33% [8]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at 1.29 yuan, with a P/E ratio of 13.9 [8].

公 司 华福证券 医院 2025 年 05 月 06 日 华厦眼科（301267.SZ） 买入（维持评级） 研 究 25Q1 收入增长稳健，员工持股计划有望增强人 才吸引力 投资要点： 公 司 财 报 点 事件：公司公布 2024 年年报及 2025 年一季报，2024 年公司实现收入 40.3 亿 元（+0.35%），实现归母净利润 4.29 亿元（-35.6%）；2025Q1 公司实现收入 10.93 亿元（+11.7%），实现归母净利润 1.5 亿元（-4%），业绩符合预期。 此外，公司公布设立 2025 年员工持股计划。 分业务：屈光和视光实现稳健增长。 评 分业务看，24 年公司屈光业务实现收入 12.96 亿元（+7.44%），毛利率 52.05% （-2.45pct），视光业务实现收入 10.69 亿元（+5.15%），毛利率 45.57%（-4.49pct）， 白内障业务实现收入 8.73 亿元（-11.56%），毛利率 35.16%（-8.53pct），眼后段 业务实现收入 5.36 亿元（+9.21%），毛利率 39.64%（-4.99pct），其他业务收入 2.53 亿元（-5.63%） ...

证券研究报告|行业专题报告 公用事业 行业评级 强于大市（维持评级） 25年5月6日 固废分红趋势明显，水务盈利能力改善，环保设备复苏态势初现 ——环保行业2024&1Q25业绩综述 证券分析师：严家源 执业证书编号：S0210524050013 证券分析师：尚硕 执业证书编号：S0210524050023 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 华福证券 华福证券 投资要点 n 环保设备：1Q25复苏态势初现。环保设备板块28家公司中，2024年有8家实现归母净 利润同比增长、1家扭亏为盈，同比下降的有9家，另有4家出现亏损、6家持续亏损； 1Q25，有10家实现归母净利润同比增长、3家扭亏为盈，同比下降的有6家，另有1家 出现亏损、8家持续亏损。1Q25，我国环卫车大盘累计销售环卫车15483台，同比增长 3.5%，为近年来首次正增长，行业呈现复苏态势。2025年3月，生态环境部首次扩大 行业覆盖范围，新增钢铁、水泥、铝冶炼行业。碳监测、节能降碳相关设备企业有望受 益。 n 投资建议 n 固废处理盈利能力、现金流情况持续向好、分红趋势明显，"焚烧+IDC"有望打开第二成 长曲线；水务及水处理降本增效初见成效，盈利改 ...

华福证券 基础化工 2025 年 05 月 06 日 行 业 研 究 基础化工 新材料周报：PEEK 材料国产替代再下一城，硫 化物全固态电池迎来新突破 投资要点： 行 业 定 期 报 告 本周行情回顾。本周（2025.4.21-2025.4.25），Wind 新材料指数收报 3504.57 点，环比上涨 1.44%。其中，涨幅前五的有润阳科技(19.07%)、阿科力(10.75%)、 祥源新材(10.71%)、八亿时空(10.27%)、泛亚微透(10.25%)；跌幅前五的有长阳 科技(-5.83%)、瑞联新材(-4.82%)、安集科技(-3.7%)、凯盛科技(-3.43%)、道恩 股份(-3.09%)。六个子行业中，申万三级行业半导体材料指数收报 5944.57 点， 环比上涨 1.41%；申万三级行业显示器件材料指数收报 1003.06 点，环比上涨 1.22%；中信三级行业有机硅材料指数收报 5797.72 点，环比下跌 1.33%；中信 三级行业碳纤维指数收报 1239.4 点，环比上涨 5.65%；中信三级行业锂电指数 收报 1645.05 点，环比上涨 0.22%；Wind 概念可降解塑料指数收报 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Insights - The company reported a robust growth in patient visits, achieving 1.21 million visits in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 12.7%, which aligns with expectations [3] - The company continues to expand its store network, with the opening of its first branch in the Southwest region, the Chengdu Dayuan branch, and has established over 80 branches across more than 20 cities in China and Singapore [4][5] - The company is actively investing in Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM) AI, planning to launch smart hardware and AI doctor assistants to enhance diagnostic capabilities and improve service efficiency, which is expected to increase customer retention and revenue per customer [6] Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The TCM healthcare service industry is experiencing strong demand and is expected to enter a high growth phase supported by favorable policies. The company, as a leading chain in TCM healthcare services, has excellent cross-regional operational capabilities and significant long-term growth potential. Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 3.81 billion, 4.84 billion, and 6.09 billion RMB, respectively, with net profits of 428 million, 569 million, and 742 million RMB for the same period. The "Buy" rating is maintained [7][10]