行 业 研 究 传媒 2026 年 01 月 14 日 AI Agent 的 C 端新标杆：Claude Skills 投资要点： 一、Anthropic 再发 Agent 新开放标准：Claude Skills 行 业 动 态 跟 踪 2025 年 10 月 16 日，Anthropic 官网宣布推出 Claude Skills 功能， 是一种通过文件夹结构赋予 AI Agent 专业能力的创新方式。2025 年 12 月 18 日，Anthropic 将 Agent Skills 规范发布至 agentskills.io，使其 成为跨平台可移植的开放标准。微软已在 VS Code 和 GitHub 中采纳该 标准，Cursor、Goose、Amp 等主流编程 Agent 也已支持。Anthropic 在 GitHub 上的 Skills 仓库星标数已接近 4 万，社区创建和分享的 skills 数以万计。 二、Skills 搭建个性化复杂工作流，让 Agent 真正可得。 产品层面，Claude Skills 已展现出覆盖办公、设计、开发、企业 协作等场景的强大能力。 文档处理方面，Skills 可自动生 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights the emergence of right-side trends in various sectors, including online gaming, Kuaishou platform, and GEO, indicating potential investment opportunities [3][10] - It also identifies sectors showing signs of bottoming out, particularly blood products, suggesting a stabilization in these areas [3][16] Thematic Analysis Outputs Right-Side Trends - Newly identified right-side trend sectors include: - Online gaming index with a 5-day increase of 11% and a year-to-date (YTD) increase of 12% [10] - Kuaishou platform index showing a 5-day increase of 20% and a YTD increase of 21% [10] - GEO index with a remarkable 5-day increase of 35% and a YTD increase of 36% [10] Bottoming Out - The blood products index has shown a 5-day increase of 2% and a YTD increase of 5%, indicating a potential recovery phase [16] - Other sectors showing signs of bottoming out include: - Pig industry index with a 5-day decrease of 1% and a YTD increase of 1% [16] - Express delivery index with a 5-day increase of 0% and a YTD increase of 1% [16] Right-Side Breakthrough Opportunities - Various indices have been identified as right-side breakthroughs, including: - Financial technology index with a 5-day increase of 3% and a YTD increase of 13% [8] - E-SIM card index with a 5-day increase of 8% and a YTD increase of 15% [8] - AIGC index with a 5-day increase of 16% and a YTD increase of 24% [8] Bottom Reversal Opportunities - Indices showing potential for bottom reversal include: - Methanol index with a 5-day increase of 1% and a YTD increase of 4% [20] - Eye medical index with a 5-day increase of 2% and a YTD increase of 6% [20] - Industrial software index with a 5-day increase of 14% and a YTD increase of 22% [20]

华福证券 宏 观 研 究 通胀上行压力不大 ——2025 年 12 月美国通胀数据点评 投资要点： 宏 核心 CPI 同比低位走平。12 月 CPI 同比持平至 2.7%，与预期一致； 核心 CPI 同比 2.6%，低于预期的 2.7%，继续处于 2021 年 4 月以来的最低 水平。环比 0.2%，也低于预期 0.3%。从分项同比上看，能源通胀继续走低 对冲食品项反弹，核心商品和核心服务均延续低位持平，整体分项数据也 大都保持平稳。 观 点 评 能源通胀走低。12 月 CPI 能源项同比增速继续降至 2.3%，较上月下行 1.9 个百分点。油价方面，下半年以来油价中枢延续稳步回落的趋势，逐步 向 60 美元附近靠拢，主要与目前原油市场大背景还是供给过剩有关。根据 EIA 的数据，2026 年进一步过剩至 226 万桶/日，指向 2026 年原油价格大 概率依旧承压，对应能源通胀继续在低位震荡，不会对整体 CPI 形成较大 的拉动。但需注意地缘政治局部升温（俄乌冲突、巴以冲突等）或驱动油 价短期波动率加剧。 汽车通胀继续下滑。12 月核心商品同比增速录得 1.4%，与上月持平。 本月新车和二手车同比增速均继续 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating that the overall return of the industry is expected to exceed the market benchmark index by more than 5% over the next 6 months [14]. Core Insights - GEO (Generative Engine Optimization) is a new method for enhancing the visibility of advertisements in AI models, with research showing that optimized content can increase visibility in AI-generated answers by 40% [3][4]. - The transition from traditional SEO (Search Engine Optimization) to GEO reflects a shift in focus from webpage ranking to content that is referenced and output by generative AI models [4]. - Different AI models have varying preferences for content, emphasizing authority, quality, and timeliness, which necessitates targeted content optimization for advertisers [5]. Summary by Sections Concept of GEO - GEO is defined as a method to enhance the likelihood of advertisements being selected by AI models for optimization [2]. Comparison of SEO and GEO - SEO focuses on webpage ranking in search engines, while GEO targets content visibility in generative AI outputs [4]. - The optimization methods differ, with SEO using keywords and backlinks, whereas GEO emphasizes the influence of AI-generated answers on decision-making [4]. AI Model Preferences - Various AI models prioritize different aspects of content, such as relevance, quality, and structure, which impacts how advertisers should approach content creation [5][6]. Representative Companies in GEO - Semrush, a traditional SEO service provider, is transitioning to GEO services, with projected revenue of $380 million in 2024 [6]. - Profound, a new player in the GEO space, focuses on AI-driven SEO and has raised $35 million in funding [6]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests monitoring the transition of the AI advertising industry towards GEO optimization [7].

Core Insights - The report highlights the emergence of new investment themes, including AIGC index, photolithography, phosphor chemical industry, vehicle networking, and brain-computer interfaces, indicating a right-side breakout in these sectors [3][4] - It identifies trends in sectors such as intelligent AI, mobile payments, aluminum, and low-altitude economy, suggesting a right-side trend formation [3][4] - The report also notes stabilization at the bottom for industries like pig farming, insurance capital stakes, yellow wine, and innovative pharmaceuticals, indicating potential recovery [3][4] - Additionally, it points out bottom reversal opportunities in sectors like innovative pharmaceuticals, methanol, and industrial software, suggesting a shift in market dynamics [3][4] Right-Side Breakout Opportunities - New indices showing right-side breakout include cloud office index, big data index, and photolithography index, with respective 5-day gains of 8%, 10%, and 12% [8] - The phosphor chemical index has shown a 4% increase over 5 days, indicating a potential investment opportunity [8] - Other indices such as vehicle networking and brain-computer interface also show promising short-term performance [8] Right-Side Trend Opportunities - The report lists indices like intelligent AI and mobile payment with 5-day gains of 11% and 5% respectively, indicating a positive trend [10] - The aluminum industry index has shown a 15% increase over 20 days, suggesting strong momentum [10] - The low-altitude economy index has also demonstrated a 22% increase over 20 days, highlighting its growth potential [10] Bottom Stabilization Opportunities - The pig farming index has stabilized with a 1% gain over 5 days, indicating potential for recovery [14] - The insurance capital stake index has shown a similar trend with a 1% increase, suggesting investor confidence [14] - Other sectors like yellow wine and innovative pharmaceuticals also show signs of stabilization, with respective gains of 1% and 12% [14] Bottom Reversal Opportunities - The methanol index has shown a 6% increase over 5 days, indicating a potential reversal in market sentiment [18] - The industrial software index has demonstrated a 13% gain, suggesting a strong recovery signal [18] - The innovative pharmaceuticals index has also shown a 12% increase, indicating a positive shift in market dynamics [18]

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the construction of a high-dimensional macroeconomic factor system to analyze the impact of macroeconomic variables on asset prices and to predict future trends in broad market indices and industry profitability [2][8][9] - It identifies five dimensions of macroeconomic variables: economic prosperity, inflation, interest rates, inventory, and credit, to improve the stability of macroeconomic assessments [9] Group 2 - Current macroeconomic conditions indicate a weak recovery, with overall indicators dropping from 72% to 61%, and industrial output and GDP growth rates remaining flat [17][19] - The report highlights that while inflation remains low, liquidity conditions are stable, and credit indicators show signs of improvement, suggesting a gradual recovery in financing demand [19][20] Group 3 - A broad market timing strategy based on macroeconomic variables has achieved an annualized return of 16.2% from January 2012 to December 2025, outperforming the industry by 10.26% [3][30] - The dividend index timing strategy has yielded an annualized return of 10.78%, exceeding the industry benchmark by 8.42% during the same period [3][37] Group 4 - The style rotation strategy, constructed from macroeconomic variables, has produced an annualized return of 14.15%, outperforming equal-weighted style indices by 6.08% from September 2014 to December 2025 [3][50] - The report suggests maintaining a balanced allocation between dividend and value stocks, while being cautious with growth and performance stocks due to current macroeconomic conditions [23][60]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no specific industry investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market at the beginning of 2026 seems to mirror the situation at the beginning of 2025. Despite short - term uncertainties, considering the rapid decline in duration and the central bank's supportive attitude, the future adjustment space of the bond market is limited. Once the impacts of factors such as supply, credit, and the A - share market are weaker than expected, the bond market may continue to follow the mirror image of early 2025 and experience a recovery [2][10]. - At present, the A - share and commodity price trends are not sufficient to trigger a reversal in the bond market direction. During the adjustment process, the impact of ultra - long bonds on the net value of public funds has weakened, which helps to mitigate market shocks [8][10]. - It is recommended to maintain a certain leverage, use 2 - 3 - year medium - to - high - grade credit bonds as the bottom - position, focus on 3 - 5 - year secondary perpetual bonds in the short term, and trade long - term bond bands opportunistically according to market conditions [10]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1. The Market Adjustment Since the Beginning of the Year is Due to Traders' Concerns about Supply Rather Than the Supply Shock Itself - The core concern in the market is the supply - demand of ultra - long bonds. The market adjustment is affected by the large issuance scale of key - term treasury bonds in January and the high proportion of ultra - long local bonds in some regions [3][16]. - Although the issuance scale of key - term treasury bonds in January has increased, the net financing scale of treasury bonds in Q1 2026 is only slightly higher than that of the same period last year. The estimated net financing scale of local bonds in Q1 2026 may be lower than that of the same period in 2025 [20][26]. - Local governments may prefer to issue long - term bonds because refinancing bonds cannot fully cover the maturing local debt. However, the national fiscal work conference emphasizes optimizing the government bond tool portfolio, so the issuance term of local bonds may not be further extended compared to 2025 [3][30]. - The recent market adjustment is mainly caused by the large - scale net selling of public funds and securities firms. It is more of an emotional weakening due to supply concerns rather than a substantial impact. As long as the 30 - year treasury bond is the most actively traded, its pricing is still determined by traders, and it has shown higher cost - effectiveness after the recent adjustment [4][31][37]. 3.2. If External Disturbances Are Weaker Than Expected, the Bond Market May Follow the Mirror Image of Early 2025 and Experience a Recovery - Despite the continuous net withdrawal of OMO and the non - excessive renewal of 3M repurchase, the loose capital state continues, which may be related to the year - end fiscal deposit release and the central bank's supportive attitude. The probability of a reserve requirement ratio cut in January has significantly increased, and the central bank's net purchase of treasury bonds is also expected to rise [41][43][45]. - Historically, supply shocks have a greater impact on the bond market in a tight liquidity environment. Currently, the central bank's attitude is supportive, and the bank's liabilities do not show obvious pressure, so the supply shock may be less than expected. The central bank has the motivation to solve the problem of the supply - demand imbalance of government bonds [47][49]. 3.3. Wait for the Impact of Risk Preference Changes to Gradually Fade - The bond market adjustment is also related to the continuous rise of the A - share and commodity prices. However, as the upward slope of the A - share market becomes steeper, its volatility increases, and the impact on the bond market has weakened. The rise in commodity prices may be short - term, and the recovery of CPI still faces challenges [50][51][56]. - During the adjustment process, the impact of ultra - long bonds on the net value of public funds has weakened, which helps to mitigate market shocks. Although short - term uncertainties remain, the future adjustment space of the bond market is limited, and there is no need to be overly pessimistic about the subsequent bond market [64][71].

Core Insights - The report maintains a strong market rating for the medical device industry, emphasizing the importance of capitalizing on overseas expansion and the commercialization of AI in healthcare [1][3][5] Medical Device Strategy - The strategy focuses on a three-step approach: prioritizing overseas expansion, benefiting from centralized procurement, and being sensitive to fiscal policies [3][5] - The report highlights the acceleration of overseas growth, particularly in high-value orthopedic, electrophysiology, and robotic sectors, which are expected to be the main contributors to growth in 2025 [5][24] - Companies such as MicroPort, Tianzhihang, and Weigao are recommended for their potential in overseas markets and innovative product offerings [5][24] AI Applications and Brain-Computer Interfaces - The report identifies a significant opportunity in AI applications, with a focus on the commercialization phase driven by policy support and market demand [4][9] - The brain-computer interface sector is poised for growth, with several leading companies expected to go public soon, which could catalyze the market [9][24] Financial Performance and Market Trends - The medical device sector is showing signs of recovery, with Q3 2025 revenues reaching 593.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, indicating a clear upward trend [13][31] - The report notes a significant contraction in fund allocation to the medical device sector, dropping from 24.5% to 15% from Q3 2022 to Q3 2025, suggesting potential for valuation recovery [14][21] Overseas Growth Potential - The report emphasizes the importance of overseas markets, particularly in Europe and the U.S., where companies are transitioning from product-focused strategies to comprehensive commercialization partnerships [5][24] - Key growth areas include surgical robots and high-value consumables, with companies like Tianzhihang and MicroPort leading the charge in international markets [24][30] Fiscal Policy Impact - The report discusses the sensitivity of equipment demand to fiscal policies, with expectations of a more favorable environment as inventory levels decrease and demand normalizes [31][34] - The anticipated release of more proactive fiscal signals in the upcoming years is expected to support the recovery of the medical device sector [31][34]

Core Insights - The chemical industry is expected to experience a recovery in profitability in 2026, marking a new starting point for supply-demand rebalancing, driven by anti-involution policies and advancements in new productive forces such as AI and robotics [2][5]. Group 1: Industry Overview - The chemical industry faced a downturn in profitability and valuation in 2025, but signs of stabilization and recovery are anticipated in 2026 [2]. - The peak of capital expenditure in the chemical sector has passed, with fixed asset investment turning negative in the second half of 2025, indicating the end of the capacity expansion cycle [5][14]. - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for chemicals is expected to gradually turn positive in 2026 after a prolonged period of decline [14]. Group 2: Investment Themes - Capital expenditure is decreasing, and leading companies like Wanhua Chemical are expected to see a recovery in profitability as they reduce capital spending and increase their global market share in MDI [5]. - The anti-involution policy is reshaping supply dynamics, with a focus on quality development and the exit of outdated capacities, benefiting companies with innovative capabilities and export advantages [5]. - New materials are driving demand growth in traditional chemicals, with companies like Dinglong Technology and Anji Technology positioned to benefit from domestic substitution in high-end materials [5]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - Chemical prices have been under pressure, with the chemical product price index declining approximately 8.8% in 2025, but stock prices in the sector have rebounded by 33.3% [10][16]. - The operating rates of mainstream chemical products are showing signs of weakness, with inventory levels varying significantly across different products [17][18]. - The supply-demand balance for phosphate rock remains tight, with stable prices for high-grade phosphate rock, while the market for phosphate fertilizers is influenced by policy and demand fluctuations [46][43]. Group 4: Global Trends - The global chemical supply is shifting towards China, which has become the largest chemical producer, while European chemical production faces challenges due to high energy costs [31][33]. - The restructuring of supply chains due to tariff disturbances is prompting companies to adapt, with a focus on overseas expansion for leading chemical firms [26][22]. - The anti-involution policies are expected to enhance industry cash flow and promote sustainable development by curbing disorderly expansion and prioritizing profitability [40].

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of longevity medicine, which focuses on proactive health and disease prevention, as a critical response to the aging population and the challenges of "pathological longevity" [2][9][14] - The aging population in China is rapidly increasing, with the number of individuals aged 65 and above reaching 203 million in 2023, accounting for 25% of the global elderly population [10] - The demand for longevity medicine is accelerating, driven by the need for aging management, early prevention, and comprehensive health optimization, transitioning the healthcare model from disease treatment to continuous management [2][11][14] Industry Overview - The longevity medicine industry in China is still in its early stages, characterized by a dual-track development model where public institutions focus on research foundations while private entities explore service and business models [11] - The industry is facing structural pressures due to the increasing burden of chronic diseases and the inefficiencies of the traditional disease-centered healthcare system [2][10] - The report highlights that the core competitive advantage in the industry will shift towards long-term health management capabilities, data integration, and value proposition [11] Market Performance - The pharmaceutical sector showed positive performance in the week of January 5-9, 2026, with all six sub-sectors recording gains, particularly in medical services (+12.34%) and medical devices (+9.42%) [15] - The report notes that the valuation levels for biopharmaceuticals and chemical pharmaceuticals are among the highest, at 89.93 times and 84.19 times respectively [15] Innovations and Developments - A significant breakthrough in cancer vaccine research was reported by a team from Peking University, utilizing protein-targeted degradation technology to enhance immune response against cancer cells [22][25] - The new basic medical insurance drug list was implemented on January 1, 2026, with over half of the newly added 114 drugs already available in medical institutions [26] - The National Medical Products Administration is enhancing support for innovative drugs, aiming for a significant increase in the approval of new drugs and medical devices in 2025 [27][30][31]