1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In December 2025, the bond market remained weak. The ultra - long - end interest rates continued to rise while the short - end rates recovered, steepening the yield curve. The trading desks, represented by securities firms and broad - based funds, continued to reduce their bond allocations, but the reduction intensity of securities firms weakened and they started to increase their allocation to interest - rate bonds. The allocation - oriented institutions such as banks and insurance companies increased their bond allocations, but the scale was limited and difficult to reverse the overall interest - rate trend. The top signal of interest rates might need to wait until the allocation power strengthened to the point where the selling pressure from trading institutions could no longer push interest rates significantly higher [3][13]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 12 - month Interest - rate Bonds Drag Bond Custody Increment to Drop Significantly, Credit and Certificates of Deposit Also Decline - In December, the total bond custody scale increased by 30.26 billion yuan month - on - month, a significant decrease of 117.73 billion yuan compared with November. The custody increment of interest - rate bonds was 69.59 billion yuan, about 78 billion yuan lower than the previous month. The custody increments of treasury bonds, local bonds, and policy - financial bonds all decreased significantly. The net financing of medium - term notes and short - term commercial papers also decreased significantly, leading to a lower custody increment of credit bonds. The custody scale of inter - bank certificates of deposit continued to decline by 62.24 billion yuan month - on - month, with the decline expanding by 23.66 billion yuan compared with the previous month [3][10]. 3.2 Trading Desks' Reduction of Allocations Continues, Allocation - Oriented Desks Lack Incentive to Increase Allocations 3.2.1 Broad - based Funds - In December, the bond custody volume of broad - based funds decreased by 9.92 billion yuan month - on - month, compared with an increase of 22.16 billion yuan in the previous month. The reduction in inter - bank certificates of deposit was 34.96 billion yuan, an increase of 34.01 billion yuan compared with the previous month. The reduction in treasury bonds, enterprise bonds, short - term commercial papers, PPNs, and credit - asset - backed securities increased, while the increase in medium - term notes and local bonds decreased. The reduction in commercial - bank bonds decreased, and they started to increase their allocation to policy - financial bonds. Relative to the stock, the reduction intensity of broad - based funds on bonds increased, and the reduction in inter - bank certificates of deposit was particularly significant, but the reduction in commercial - bank bonds decreased and the allocation to policy - financial bonds increased [17][19]. 3.2.2 Securities Firms - In December, the bond custody volume of securities firms decreased by 0.23 billion yuan month - on - month, with the decline narrowing by 13.98 billion yuan compared with the previous month. They started to increase their allocation to treasury bonds, policy - financial bonds, and commercial - bank bonds, increased their allocation to local bonds, but started to reduce their allocation to medium - term notes and short - term commercial papers, and the reduction in inter - bank certificates of deposit, PPNs, and enterprise bonds increased. Relative to the stock, the reduction intensity of securities firms on bonds decreased, mainly as they started to increase their allocation to interest - rate bonds but started to reduce their allocation to credit bonds [27]. 3.2.3 Insurance Companies - In December, the bond custody volume of insurance companies increased by 4 billion yuan month - on - month, with the increase expanding by 1.15 billion yuan compared with the previous month. They increased their allocation to treasury bonds, local bonds, and inter - bank certificates of deposit, decreased their reduction in commercial - bank bonds, but started to reduce their allocation to policy - financial bonds and medium - term notes, decreased their allocation to financial bonds on the Clearstream, and increased their reduction in enterprise bonds. Relative to the stock, insurance companies started to increase their allocation to bonds, mainly increasing their allocation to treasury bonds and local bonds [33]. 3.2.4 Overseas Institutions - In December, the bond custody scale of overseas institutions decreased by 15.09 billion yuan month - on - month, with the decline expanding by 3.41 billion yuan compared with the previous month. They started to reduce their allocation to policy - financial bonds, increased their reduction in inter - bank certificates of deposit and treasury bonds, but started to increase their allocation to local bonds and medium - term notes. Relative to the stock, the reduction intensity of overseas institutions on bonds increased slightly, mainly increasing their reduction in policy - financial bonds and inter - bank certificates of deposit, but decreasing their reduction in treasury bonds and increasing their allocation to local bonds and medium - term notes [34]. 3.2.5 Other Institutions - In December, the bond custody volume of other institutions including the central bank increased by 18.24 billion yuan month - on - month, with the increase narrowing by 39.22 billion yuan compared with the previous month. They decreased their allocation to treasury bonds and local bonds, started to reduce their allocation to policy - financial bonds, but increased their allocation to inter - bank certificates of deposit. The change in the bond custody structure of other institutions might indicate that the underlying assets of repurchase agreements were still mainly local bonds, but some were replaced from policy - financial bonds to treasury bonds [39]. 3.2.6 Commercial Banks - In December, the bond custody scale of commercial banks increased by 25.73 billion yuan month - on - month, with the increase narrowing by 52.58 billion yuan compared with the previous month. The increase in local bonds, treasury bonds, financial bonds on the Clearstream, and medium - term notes decreased, the reduction in short - term commercial papers, inter - bank certificates of deposit, and commercial - bank bonds increased, and the increase in policy - financial bonds increased. This also reflected the impact of the change in the structure of repurchase - agreement underlying assets to some extent. Relative to the stock, commercial banks also increased their allocation to bonds to some extent, increasing their allocation to policy - financial bonds and treasury bonds, increasing their allocation to local bonds, decreasing their reduction in inter - bank certificates of deposit, but decreasing their allocation to financial bonds on the Clearstream and medium - term notes, and increasing their reduction in short - term commercial papers and commercial - bank bonds [45]. 3.2.7 Credit Unions - In December, the bond custody scale of credit unions decreased by 9.82 billion yuan month - on - month, compared with an increase of 0.98 billion yuan in the previous month. They started to reduce their allocation to inter - bank certificates of deposit and treasury bonds, increased their reduction in policy - financial bonds and commercial - bank bonds, and decreased their allocation to local bonds. Relative to the stock, the reduction intensity of credit unions on bonds increased, mainly reducing their allocation to certificates of deposit and policy - financial bonds [46]. 3.3 The Bond - market Leverage Ratio Seasonally Rebounded in December, and Securities Firms Reduced Leverage but It Remained at a High Level - In December, affected by short - term disturbances in the liabilities of some institutions at the end of the year and the increase in the demand for borrowing funds, the bond - market leverage ratio increased by 0.6 percentage points month - on - month to 107.8%, which was in line with the seasonal pattern. By institution, the leverage ratio of commercial banks increased by 0.3 percentage points month - on - month to 103.6%; the leverage ratio of non - bank institutions increased by 1.4 percentage points month - on - month to 118.4%, which was also in line with the seasonal characteristics; the leverage ratio of securities firms decreased significantly by 14.1 percentage points month - on - month to 217.3%, but it was still at a high level; the leverage ratio of insurance and non - legal - person products increased by 1.7 percentage points month - on - month to 115.4%, which was at a relatively low level in the past three years. In the broad - based funds, the repurchase balances of various institutions rebounded. Among them, the repurchase balances of money - market funds, other products, and insurance companies reached record highs, and the repurchase balance of wealth - management products reached a new high since 2025, but the repurchase balance of non - money - market funds remained at a relatively low level since 2023 [4][52].

Group 1: Fiscal Policy Effectiveness - The fiscal policy for 2025 remains strong, but the fiscal effect coefficient on economic growth has declined, indicating lower "cost-effectiveness" of fiscal expansion[3] - The central government's fund expenditure completion rate was only 53.7% of the budget in 2024, suggesting a slow spending pace that may continue into 2025[3] - The increase in fiscal deposits in 2025 is higher than in previous years, reflecting a phenomenon of "funds lying idle"[3] Group 2: Policy Focus Changes - The general public budget deficit rate for 2026 is expected to remain stable at around 4%, with an emphasis on expanding fiscal spending[4] - Domestic demand is prioritized as a strategic focus, with a shift to "domestic demand-led" growth[4] - There is a continued emphasis on enhancing residents' income and employment, reflecting a higher priority on social welfare[4] Group 3: Government Debt and Financing - The issuance of government bonds in Q1 2026 is expected to show slight growth compared to the previous year, with a stable issuance plan[5] - The scale of individual issued bonds has increased, with notable rises in 1Y, 2Y, 10Y, and 30Y bonds compared to last year[5] - The pace of local debt issuance in 2026 is expected to be more uniform, with a focus on special refinancing bonds[5]

Group 1 - The core view of the report is that the non-ferrous metals sector is expected to perform well, driven by the second phase of the bull market and the revaluation of physical assets, with the Shenwan first-level industry index for non-ferrous metals showing a remarkable annual increase of 94.73%, leading 31 other industries [3][10][11]. - The second phase of the bull market is characterized by a profit-driven upward cycle, supported by an upward revision of economic fundamentals, which highlights the strong cyclicality of non-ferrous metals [4][12]. - The narrative of "de-involution" and expansion of domestic demand, along with the reinforcement of re-inflation discourse, suggests that the non-ferrous metal market is likely to continue its upward trend [4][12]. Group 2 - The weak dollar provides a favorable environment for the rise of physical assets, as a depreciating dollar increases the purchasing power of non-dollar currencies for dollar-denominated commodities [21][22]. - The core logic of U.S. debt monetization is highlighted, where fiscal and debt monetization is seen as a pathway to address the growing U.S. debt issue, with non-renewable resources like physical assets serving as a hedge against value erosion [25][30]. - The historical underinvestment in mining capital expenditures is a significant constraint, with global exploration spending for solid minerals declining to $12.48 billion in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 3.3% [44]. Group 3 - The "power triangle" theory of critical minerals illustrates the geopolitical competition for key minerals, with the U.S. aiming to maintain its dominant position in the global critical mineral supply chain while China seeks to secure its mineral supply [51][58]. - The report suggests a long-term positive outlook for investments in non-ferrous metals, emphasizing that the four major logics behind the revaluation of physical assets are unlikely to change easily [60]. - Potential investment strategies include focusing on gold for its monetary attributes, copper for its industrial demand driven by AI infrastructure, and other industrial metals that may benefit from tariff dynamics and AI-related growth [61].

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the theme of "cognitive differences, transformation imminent," highlighting the accelerated iteration of business models among light industry companies amid macroeconomic and trade fluctuations, suggesting a focus on identifying alpha opportunities in companies with high barriers and leading global capacity layouts [2][16] - The light industry index underperformed the market in 2025, with a return of +20.88%, trailing the CSI 300 by -0.31%. The performance was driven by companies undergoing transformation or restructuring, while only a few stocks, like Xiangxin Home, saw price increases driven by solid fundamentals [10][16] - For 2026, three investment themes are proposed: export alpha, steady growth, and low-level consumption. Recommended companies include Zhongxin Co., Xiangxin Home, and Mengbaihe for exports; Sun Paper and Jiu Long Paper for steady growth; and Gujia Home and Oppein for low-level consumption [2][16] 2025 Sector Review - The light industry sector underperformed the market, with packaging and personal care showing stable growth, while home furnishings and paper faced pressure, leading to a divergence in export performance [3][11] - The overall revenue growth for the light industry sector in Q3 2025 was -0.7%, with a significant decline in net profit attributed to the paper sector, while personal care and packaging showed positive growth [13][14] 2026 Investment Themes - **Export Alpha**: Focus on high-barrier export manufacturing companies that are transitioning from product export to capacity and brand export, benefiting from the recovery of the US real estate chain due to interest rate cuts [2][21] - **Steady Growth**: Emphasis on paper and packaging sectors, with expectations of price recovery in 2026 for paper products, recommending companies like Sun Paper and Yutong Technology [2][16] - **Low-Level Consumption**: Targeting home furnishings and stationery, with recommendations for companies like Gujia Home and Oppein, as the sector is expected to recover with improved consumer sentiment [2][16] Key Companies - Recommended companies for export include Zhongxin Co. and Mengbaihe, while for steady growth, Sun Paper and Jiu Long Paper are highlighted. In the low-level consumption category, Gujia Home and Oppein are suggested as potential investment opportunities [2][16]

Group 1: Economic Indicators - Real estate sales in 42 cities showed a year-on-year decline improvement from -25.6% to -22.2% in the first three weeks of January[7] - The average price decline for new homes in 70 cities widened from -2.8% to -3.1% in December[7] - The average wholesale price index for agricultural products decreased, while pork prices increased by 0.4% month-on-month[22] Group 2: Consumer Behavior - Movie box office revenue fell to approximately 360 million yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 16.4%[35] - The average daily visitor count at Shanghai Disneyland rose to 50,000, showing a year-on-year increase of 14.3%[37] - The average daily coal consumption by major power generation groups decreased by 1.4% year-on-year in the first 16 days of January[102] Group 3: Industrial Production - The operating rate of automotive semi-steel tires increased to 74.4% this week[9] - Steel production growth turned positive, with sample steel mills showing a decrease in inventory[54] - The price of PTA and polyester products generally increased, while the operating rate in the PTA industry declined[49]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 1.08%, with increased weekly amplitude, and the equity - style convertible bonds with "high price and high conversion premium" remained active. The balance - weighted increase of debt - biased convertible bonds was 0.03%, balanced convertible bonds rose 0.19%, and equity - biased convertible bonds rose 3.87%, further widening the style excess. The balance - weighted conversion premium rate of convertible bonds with an absolute price above 130 yuan approached the historical high [2][10]. - The "leverage" of equity - style "high - price and high - premium" convertible bonds can still explain the current valuation system changes. Convertible bonds have a certain degree of "leverage", and the investment behavior of secondary bond funds also indicates that convertible bonds are a leveraged tool for stocks [15][19]. - Redemption disturbances have begun to marginally affect the performance of equity - style convertible bonds. Some convertible bonds that have announced forced redemptions experienced a double - kill of stocks and bonds, and some equity - style convertible bonds that have not met the forced - redemption conditions also showed weak performance with a significant compression of the conversion premium rate [21]. - The strong performance of new convertible bonds is an important support for the "high - price and high - premium" situation, but potential regulatory policy risks need to be noted. As of last Friday, the balance - weighted implied volatility of convertible bonds listed within 6 months exceeded 85%. Considering the increased regulatory guidance on the equity market, there may be specific requirements for new convertible bonds [3][23]. - Historically, unexpected forced redemptions have a short - term impact on the valuation of equity - style convertible bonds. After the impact, it is recommended to focus on equity - style varieties with a higher certainty of non - forced redemption [29]. Summary According to the Directory 1 When "High - price and High - premium" Convertible Bonds Encounter Potential Forced - redemption Risks - **Market Performance**: The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 1.08% last week. Equity - style convertible bonds with "high price and high conversion premium" were active. In terms of style, debt - biased convertible bonds rose 0.03%, balanced convertible bonds rose 0.19%, and equity - biased convertible bonds rose 3.87%. The balance - weighted conversion premium rate of convertible bonds with an absolute price above 130 yuan was close to the historical high [2][10]. - **Valuation Explanation**: The "leverage" of convertible bonds can explain the current valuation system. The convertible bond valuation is related to the weighted index of underlying stocks, and the investment behavior of secondary bond funds also shows that convertible bonds are a leveraged tool for stocks [15][19]. - **Redemption Impact**: Redemption disturbances affected the performance of equity - style convertible bonds. Some bonds with announced forced redemptions had a double - kill of stocks and bonds, and some bonds that had not met the forced - redemption conditions also had a compressed conversion premium rate [21]. - **New Bond Support and Risks**: The strong performance of new convertible bonds supported the "high - price and high - premium" situation. As of last Friday, the balance - weighted implied volatility of convertible bonds listed within 6 months exceeded 85%. There may be regulatory risks for new convertible bonds [3][23]. - **Forced - redemption Impact on Valuation**: Historically, in the 5 trading days before an unexpected forced - redemption event, the valuation of equity - style convertible bonds was likely to be compressed, with a median compression amplitude of about 1 - 2 percentage points. After the event, there was no obvious pattern in the valuation performance. It is recommended to focus on equity - style varieties with a higher certainty of non - forced redemption [29]. - **Forced - redemption Counting Details**: Multiple convertible bonds are in the forced - redemption counting stage, and some are close to triggering forced redemptions. For example, Fuli Convertible Bond, Sailong Convertible Bond, and Tianjian Convertible Bond need at least 1 more day to trigger forced redemptions [35].

Group 1 - The report highlights the structural opportunities in the Z generation wealth management market, emphasizing the importance of intergenerational marketing and the role of parents as financial influencers [2][14][15] - It suggests that over 80% of young individuals discuss financial topics in social settings, indicating that social-driven financial channels are crucial for engagement and growth [2][14] - The report notes a significant gap in financial education and practical skills among the Z generation, with nearly 60% achieving annual returns below 4%, highlighting the need for AI-enabled financial tools and educational applications [2][15][19] Group 2 - The Z generation shows a strong desire for financial independence, with over 90% of individuals aged 18-24 aiming to achieve retirement financial goals before the age of 50 [7][19] - There is a notable gender disparity in investment behaviors, with 31.80% of males participating in stock investments compared to 19.76% of females, reflecting differing risk appetites [8][19] - The report identifies the rise of the creator economy as a new pathway for financial independence, with 57% of the Z generation monetizing their skills or content online [15][19] Group 3 - The report outlines three main areas of potential growth in the Z generation wealth management market: the early engagement of young investors, the integration of social and technological elements in financial services, and the emergence of new financial needs driven by the creator economy [19][20] - It also points out significant challenges, including the "knowledge-action gap," where many Z generation individuals struggle to execute their financial goals despite having them, with 31% citing financial resources as a major barrier [20] - The complexity of decision-making paths for the Z generation, influenced by both social platforms and parental guidance, complicates marketing strategies and market reach [20]

Economic Performance - In December, the national GDP growth for the year reached 5%, successfully meeting the target[10] - The fixed asset investment in December saw a year-on-year decline of 15.1%, an increase of 3.1 percentage points from the previous month[4] - The manufacturing investment dropped by 10.5%, while real estate investment fell by 35.8%[4] Consumption Trends - Retail sales growth in December decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 0.9%, marking the lowest level since 2023[19] - Service retail sales continued to rise, with a cumulative year-on-year growth of 5.5%, indicating strong resilience in service consumption[19] - The average growth rate of essential consumer goods increased to 3.2%, while discretionary goods saw a decline of 4.4%[22] Industrial Production - The industrial added value in December grew by 5.2% year-on-year, with significant contributions from equipment manufacturing and high-tech industries[11] - The mining, manufacturing, and electricity sectors reported growth rates of 5.4%, 5.7%, and 0.8% respectively[11] Real Estate Market - The sales area of real estate in December experienced a year-on-year decline of 15.6%, although this was an improvement from November[25] - Housing prices continued to decline, with both new and second-hand residential prices showing a widening year-on-year drop[10] Employment and Future Outlook - The urban unemployment rate remained stable at 5.1%, consistent with the previous month and year[26] - The report emphasizes that expanding consumption is crucial for stabilizing growth in 2026, with "new infrastructure" and "energy infrastructure" as potential short-term strategies[26]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [8][66] Core Insights - The report highlights the continuation of housing tax refund policies and a reduction in the down payment ratio for commercial properties, which are expected to support the real estate market [3][13] - The report anticipates a turning point in the building materials capacity cycle due to supply-side reforms and a recovery in home buying willingness driven by lower interest rates and supportive policies [6][13] - The report notes that the real estate market is gradually stabilizing, with an increasing probability of recovery in post-cycle demand for building materials [6][13] Summary by Sections Investment Highlights - The Ministry of Finance, State Administration of Taxation, and Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development have announced the extension of tax refund policies for homeowners [3] - The central bank has adjusted the minimum down payment ratio for commercial housing loans to no less than 30% [3] - Various cities are implementing measures to promote stable development in the real estate market, including urban renewal projects and government subsidies for home purchases [3][13] Market Data - As of January 16, 2026, the national average price of bulk P.O 42.5 cement is 335.5 CNY/ton, showing a 0.9% decrease from the previous week and a 16.0% decrease year-on-year [4][14] - The national average price of glass (5.00mm) is 1097.1 CNY/ton, reflecting a 0.4% increase from the previous week but a 16.9% decrease year-on-year [4][22] Sector Review - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.45%, while the Shenzhen Composite Index rose by 1%. The building materials index decreased by 0.67% [5][51] - Sub-sectors such as refractory materials and fiberglass manufacturing showed positive growth, while cement and glass manufacturing experienced declines [5][51] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three main lines of investment: high-quality companies benefiting from stock renovations, undervalued stocks with long-term alpha attributes, and leading cyclical building materials companies showing signs of bottoming out [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, the bond market recovered, with relatively stable credit spreads and narrowing spreads for Tier 2 and perpetual bonds. The weakening of the stock - bond seesaw effect and positive factors such as better - than - expected 30 - year Treasury bond issuance and regulatory measures on the A - share market improved bond market sentiment. Although the expected RRR cut did not materialize, the central bank's press conference sent positive signals, and the bond market may continue to repair [2][14]. - The central bank emphasized that there is still room for RRR cuts and interest rate cuts. Considering economic data and market conditions, these measures may be implemented around the Two Sessions in March. The central bank may also flexibly adjust its bond - buying operations in response to bond supply and yield curve changes [3][20]. - Despite potential disturbances to the capital market in the future, the central bank is likely to maintain loose liquidity. The DR001 central rate in January is expected to be around 1.3% - 1.35% [5][49]. - December's financial data was better than expected, but there is still pressure for the subsequent decline in social financing and M2 growth rates. The bond market may face short - term disturbances as interest rates approach previous lows, but there are signs of an interest rate peak, and there is no need to be overly pessimistic about the bond market [52][74]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 1 - month RRR cut did not materialize, but the central bank's press conference sent positive signals in terms of policy and bond - buying space - The central bank emphasized that there is still room for RRR cuts and interest rate cuts. External factors do not strongly constrain interest rate cuts, and the reduction of the central bank's re - lending rate creates conditions for interest rate cuts. The RRR cut may be postponed due to concerns about overheating in the capital market [3][20]. - The central bank can tolerate M2 and social financing growth rates being higher than the target to a certain extent and may maintain a loose liquidity environment to support credit. The central bank also elaborated on the significance of Treasury bond trading and may increase the scale and extend the term of bond purchases [4][27]. 3.2 Mismatch between capital injection and leakage caused fluctuations, and the non - implementation of the RRR cut did not hinder capital loosening - In December, the decline in government deposits was lower than expected, resulting in a lower - than - expected excess reserve ratio of 1.6%. The capital remained loose possibly due to abundant non - bank liquidity [32]. - In the first week of January, the excess reserve ratio was estimated to be only 0.9% due to OMO net withdrawal and government bond net payment. External disturbances such as government bond net payment, maturity of repurchase agreements, and North Exchange IPO subscriptions led to a temporary tightening of capital, but the situation eased after the central bank's operations [38]. - In the next month, factors such as tax payments, government bond payments, and cash - withdrawal demand may disrupt the capital market. However, the central bank's attitude indicates that the capital market is unlikely to experience significant fluctuations, and the DR001 central rate in January is expected to be around 1.3% - 1.35% [44][49]. 3.3 December's financial data was better than expected, but the subsequent social financing and M2 growth rates may continue to decline - In December, new credit was 9100 billion yuan, better than expected. Corporate credit improved, but household credit was weak. The decline in household short - term and medium - long - term loans shows that the real estate market is still clearing, and households are repairing their balance sheets [52]. - December's new social financing was 2.21 trillion yuan, and the stock's year - on - year growth rate dropped to 8.3%. Although it was better than expected, there is still pressure for a decline in the subsequent social financing growth rate due to the high base of Q1 credit and the slowdown in government bond net supply [58]. - In December, the M2 growth rate rose to 8.5%. The increase was mainly due to factors such as bank foreign exchange settlement surplus and non - bank deposit base effects. However, the M1 growth rate declined, indicating a possible slowdown in deposit activation [59][65]. 3.4 Interest rates are approaching previous lows and may face disturbances, but the trend of shock repair is still expected to continue - After last week's repair, the yields of Treasury bonds of various maturities (except ultra - long - term) are lower than those at the end of 2025. Although the market may face short - term disturbances as interest rates approach previous lows, the strong configuration willingness of banks and insurance companies is a clear signal of an interest rate peak [74]. - There is no need to be overly pessimistic about the bond market. If the capital remains loose and government bond supply does not cause the expected impact, the 10 - year Treasury bond may break through the December low of 1.83%. It is recommended to maintain a certain leverage and participate in the trading opportunities of 10 - year policy - financial bonds [8][74].