Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [6] Core Views - The report highlights significant growth in the new energy vehicle sector, with a year-on-year increase of 17 percentage points in export penetration rate for new energy vehicles in May [2][10] - The SNEC exhibition showcased new photovoltaic technologies, indicating a shift towards performance enhancement and multi-scenario applications rather than just peak power [3][20][22] - The offshore wind sector is set to see the launch of the UK's seventh round of Contracts for Difference (CfD) in August, with domestic deep-sea demonstration projects gradually starting [4][32][34] - The energy storage sector experienced a remarkable increase in installed capacity, exceeding 200% in May, with a trend towards integrated solar and storage solutions [4][39][42] - The electricity equipment sector is focused on ensuring power supply during peak summer demand, with the first batch of power projects from the "Xinjiang Electricity to Chongqing" initiative coming online [4][49][51] Summary by Sections New Energy Vehicles and Lithium Battery Sector - The automotive industry is implementing measures to reduce internal competition, with major companies committing to shorten supplier payment terms [10] - In May, the retail sales of new energy vehicles reached 1.021 million units, a year-on-year increase of 28.2% [11] - The report suggests focusing on companies with cost advantages and those leading in fast-charging and high-voltage technologies [12][13] Photovoltaic Sector - The SNEC exhibition highlighted new products from leading companies, with significant advancements in component efficiency and power output [20][21] - The report emphasizes the importance of matching generation curves with pricing curves as a new value metric in the industry [22] - Recommendations include focusing on companies benefiting from supply-side reforms and those with price elasticity in the battery segment [28][29] Wind Power Sector - The UK is preparing for the seventh round of offshore wind CfD, with a significant number of projects eligible to participate [32][33] - The report suggests monitoring companies in the offshore wind supply chain that are expected to see performance improvements [36] Energy Storage Sector - The report notes a substantial increase in new energy storage installations, driven by market demand and regulatory incentives [39][40] - It highlights the trend towards integrated energy solutions and the importance of AI in energy management [42][45] - Investment recommendations focus on quality storage integrators and companies benefiting from the growth of solar-storage solutions [46] Electricity Equipment Sector - The report outlines measures taken by the State Grid to ensure power supply during peak summer, with a focus on enhancing grid capacity [49][50] - It highlights the significance of the "Xinjiang Electricity to Chongqing" project in supporting regional energy needs [51][52] - Investment suggestions include companies involved in overseas expansion and digital grid solutions [56] Industrial Control and Robotics Sector - The report notes a recovery in manufacturing PMI, indicating improved demand for industrial control components [59] - It highlights innovations in robotics, particularly in humanoid robots and their applications in various sectors [60] - Recommendations include focusing on automation leaders and companies involved in humanoid robotics [61] Hydrogen Sector - The report discusses the initiation of hydrogen energy pilot projects by the National Energy Administration, emphasizing the development of a complete hydrogen supply chain [65][66] - It highlights the rapid advancements in hydrogen production technologies showcased at the SNEC exhibition [67] - Investment suggestions focus on companies involved in hydrogen production and fuel cell systems [67]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "stronger than the market" for the defense and military industry [6] Core Viewpoints - The report expresses a bullish outlook on army equipment, driven by the recent escalation of the Israel-Iran conflict and the anticipated strong recovery in demand for the military industry by 2025 [42][11] - The military sector is expected to benefit from multiple catalysts, including the "14th Five-Year Plan" initiatives, the centenary of the military, domestic substitution, and rapid development of military trade, leading to significant growth in both domestic and foreign demand [42][11] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The military industry index rose by 1.03% from June 9 to June 13, outperforming the CSI 300 index, which fell by 0.25%, resulting in an excess return of 1.29 percentage points [14] - Since the beginning of 2025, the military index has increased by 3.36%, while the CSI 300 index has decreased by 1.80%, leading to an excess return of 5.16 percentage points [16] Valuation and Funding - As of June 13, the military industry index has a TTM price-to-earnings ratio of 66.71, ranking in the 91.76 percentile, indicating a high configuration value [42][33] - Passive fund inflows into military ETFs increased slightly, with a net inflow of 830 million yuan during the week, although this was a decrease of 689 million yuan from the previous week [27][32] Key Investment Themes - The report recommends focusing on three main lines of investment: domestic trade, foreign trade, and self-sufficiency [42] - Suggested companies for domestic trade include Tianqin Equipment, Baiao Intelligent, and Gaode Infrared [42] - For foreign trade, companies like Guangdong Hongda and Aerospace Rainbow are highlighted [44] - In the self-sufficiency category, companies such as Aerospace Technology and Tunan Co. are recommended [44]

行 华福证券 农林牧渔 2025 年 06 月 15 日 业 研 究 农林牧渔 行业库存持续释放，生猪均重降幅扩大 投资要点： 行 业 定 期 报 告 生猪养殖：行业库存持续释放，出栏均重降幅扩大。（1）本周猪价跌 后小幅反弹。猪价跌破 14 元/公斤后，养殖主体惜售情绪有所增强，叠加 低价二育进场比例增加，带动周后期猪价小幅反弹，6 月 13 日猪价 14.02 元/公斤，周环比-0.05 元/公斤。（2）本周屠企宰量下滑。端午节过后市场 消费明显下滑，屠企订单量处于低位，本周宰量呈下滑趋势。6 月 7-13 日 涌益样本屠企日均宰杀量为 14.31 万头，周环比-1.83%。（3）本周生猪出 栏均重继续下降。随气温升高，大猪需求量减少，养殖端压栏情绪减弱，6 月多个集团场均有不同程度降重策略，行业出栏均重维持下滑趋势。6 月 12 日当周生猪出栏均重 128.82kg，周环比-0.35kg，已连续四周下降，本周 降幅较前期扩大。展望后市，涌益/钢联/卓创监测 6 月样本企业日均出栏预 计环比+4.39%/+2.84%/+3.88%，供应压力预计增大。叠加气温升高抑制养 殖端压栏增重意愿，行业去库存开启，猪 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [7][70] Core Viewpoints - The State Council emphasized the need to optimize policies to stabilize expectations, activate demand, optimize supply, and mitigate risks in the real estate market, aiming to halt the decline and stabilize the market [2][12] - The People's Bank of China reported an increase of 10.68 trillion yuan in RMB loans in the first five months of 2025, with household loans increasing by 572.4 billion yuan, indicating a shift towards long-term loans [2][12] - Short-term and medium-term policies are expected to support the recovery of the real estate market, with a focus on interest rate reductions and policy adjustments to stimulate demand [2][12] Summary by Sections Investment Highlights - The report indicates that the construction materials sector is likely to benefit from the gradual recovery of the real estate market, with improved purchasing intentions and capabilities expected to stabilize the market fundamentals [5][12] - The report suggests that the basic fundamentals of the construction materials sector have limited room for further deterioration compared to the end of 2022, with a low dependency on large B channels by leading companies [5][12] Recent High-Frequency Data - As of June 13, 2025, the average price of bulk P.O 42.5 cement in China was 372.8 yuan/ton, showing a 0.1% decrease from the previous week and a 3.5% decrease year-on-year [3][13] - The average price of glass (5.00mm) was 1197.1 yuan/ton, reflecting a 0.5% decrease from the previous week and a 28.0% decrease year-on-year [3][21] Sector Review - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.25%, while the Shenzhen Composite Index decreased by 0.33%. The construction materials index dropped by 2.77% [4][56] - Among sub-sectors, the performance varied, with pipe materials down by 0.09%, other building materials down by 2.1%, and cement manufacturing down by 2.7% [4][56] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on three main lines: high-quality companies benefiting from stock renovations, undervalued stocks with long-term alpha attributes, and leading cyclical building material companies showing signs of bottoming out [5][12]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" indicating that the overall return of the industry is expected to exceed the market benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 6 to 12 months [79]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in bidding data for medical equipment, with monthly bidding amounts showing year-on-year growth rates ranging from 41% to 113% from December 2024 to May 2025, suggesting a robust demand recovery [4][17]. - The report emphasizes the strong performance of innovative drugs, with companies like China Biopharma and Rongchang Bio continuing to see positive developments, supported by government policies optimizing drug procurement [5][41]. - The medical device sector is expected to experience a turning point in financial reporting in Q2 and Q3 2025, as the effects of increased bidding data begin to reflect in company revenues [4][26]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Performance Review - The CITIC Medical Index rose by 1.5% during the week of June 9-13, 2025, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 1.8 percentage points, ranking third among CITIC's primary industry classifications [3][41]. - The top five performing stocks for the week included Yiming Pharmaceutical (+38.49%), Saiseng Pharmaceutical (+36.35%), and Aoyang Health (+35.01%) [59]. 2. Equipment Bidding Data - Bidding amounts for medical equipment have shown a consistent increase, with May 2025 seeing a 69% year-on-year growth, indicating a strong recovery in demand [4][17]. - The report predicts that the financial results for companies involved in equipment installation will begin to reflect this demand surge in Q2 2025, while inventory companies may see performance improvements by Q3 2025 [4][26]. 3. Mid to Long-term Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on three main themes: innovation, recovery, and policy support. It highlights the potential for innovative drugs and medical devices to drive growth, particularly in companies with strong international competitiveness [5][6]. - Specific companies to watch include Union Medical, Shanhai Mountain, and Mindray Medical, which are expected to benefit from the ongoing recovery in bidding data and demand [4][6][27].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the home appliance sector [7]. Core Insights - The U.S. has imposed a 50% import tariff on certain steel-based home appliances, effective June 23, which includes washing machines, dishwashers, refrigerators, ovens, dryers, freezers, kitchen garbage disposers, and welding racks. This tariff applies globally, with the exception of the UK, which faces a 25% additional tax. Companies using domestically sourced steel can benefit from exemptions [3][11][17]. - The tariff aims to protect the U.S. steel industry, potentially benefiting companies with domestic production capabilities, such as Haier, while having a limited impact on overall global production capacity in the short term [3][17]. Summary by Sections 1. Tariff Impact - The tariff will be assessed based on the value of steel components in appliances rather than the total product price, affecting products with higher steel content more significantly. For example, refrigerators may see an estimated total tariff of about 65% due to various tariffs combined [11][12][13]. 2. Market Trends - The home appliance sector experienced a decline of 1.4% this week, with specific segments like white goods and kitchen appliances seeing drops of 0.8% and 2.8%, respectively. Meanwhile, raw material prices for copper and aluminum changed by -1.4% and +2.2% respectively [4][24]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on several areas for investment: 1. Major appliances benefiting from trade-in programs, recommending companies like Midea Group, Haier, Gree Electric, Hisense, and TCL [18]. 2. The pet industry, which is expected to remain resilient, with recommendations for companies like Guibao Pet and Zhongchong Co [18]. 3. Small appliances and branded apparel, which may see a rebound in demand, with a focus on leading brands like Bear Electric and Supor [18]. 4. Electric two-wheelers, which are expected to improve in domestic sales, with recommendations for companies like Ninebot and Yadea [18]. 4. Global Manufacturing Dynamics - The report highlights that Chinese manufacturers maintain a significant advantage in global production, particularly in major appliances and tools, with recommendations for Midea, Haier, and others [19][23]. 5. Company Performance - The report tracks the performance of key companies in the home appliance sector, noting that Haier has substantial domestic production capacity in the U.S., which may mitigate the impact of tariffs compared to competitors with lower U.S. exposure [13][17].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [7] Core Viewpoints - Multiple automotive companies have committed to a "60-day payment term" to enhance the efficiency of capital turnover in the supply chain and promote high-quality development in the automotive industry [2][3][12] - The supply chain payment term issue has been a persistent challenge for the Chinese automotive industry, with automakers extending payment terms to pressure suppliers, which distorts normal business relationships and affects fair competition [3][13] - Shortening payment terms will impact automakers' cash flow and limit their ability to engage in price wars, which have already compressed profit margins [3][13] Market Performance - From June 9 to June 13, the automotive sector declined by 0.8%, underperforming the CSI 300 index, which fell by 0.3%, resulting in a 0.5 percentage point lag [4][14] - Year-to-date, the automotive sector has increased by 7.8%, ranking 6th among 31 sectors [4][14] - Within sub-sectors, commercial trucks and motorcycles saw increases of 10.7% and 2%, respectively, while passenger vehicles and auto parts declined by 2% and 1.6% [21] Key Industry Data - Retail sales of passenger vehicles from June 1 to June 8 reached 343,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 19%, but a month-on-month decrease of 12% [5][31] - New energy passenger vehicle retail sales were 202,000 units, up 40% year-on-year and 4% month-on-month [5][36] - In May, total automotive sales were 2.686 million units, with a year-on-year growth of 11.2% [39] Valuation Metrics - The overall PE-TTM for the automotive industry is 25.81 times, with a historical percentile of 60.48% [23][27] - The overall PB for the automotive industry is 2.42 times, with a historical percentile of 67.87% [23][27] Industry News - Xiaopeng G7 was officially launched with a pre-sale price of 235,800 yuan, featuring advanced AI capabilities [69] - GAC's first mass-produced flying car, AirCab, has begun pre-orders with a price not exceeding 1.68 million yuan [69] - Geely announced the release of its Raytheon AI hybrid system, which boasts high thermal efficiency and low fuel consumption [70]

Group 1 - The report focuses on a theme investment database aimed at identifying high-quality price-volume patterns and monitoring the peak rhythm of popular themes and the adjustment levels of leading stocks [2][9]. - The report highlights two main aspects: 1) Quantitative screening of four types of patterns for high-odds theme opportunities; 2) Construction of trading heat indicators to grasp the peak rhythm of popular themes, with an added observation of leading stock adjustments [2][9]. - In the current period, there are no stocks showing a bottoming pattern, 12 stocks showing a breakout pattern, 8 stocks showing a main rising pattern, and no stocks showing an acceleration pattern. Among the 12 stocks with breakout patterns, 6 are in the computer industry, while 5 of the 8 main rising stocks are in the non-ferrous metals industry [12]. Group 2 - The trading heat for the humanoid robot theme has decreased to 53%, with the closing price of Changsheng Bearing being 11.9% below the MA60. For the Deepseek theme, the trading heat has dropped to 55%, with Daily Interaction's closing price being 11.2% below the MA60 [3][16].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "stronger than market" rating for the coal industry [6] Core Viewpoints - The price of thermal coal is approaching 600 RMB, indicating supply-side negative feedback. In May, coal imports continued to decrease, and domestic production saw a month-on-month decline. With daily consumption improving, destocking is expected to commence, leading to a rebound in coal prices. The report suggests increasing allocation to coal stocks that benefit from price elasticity, with long-term core stocks showing high dividend yields and significant value [5][6] - The coal industry is currently in a golden era due to the energy transformation, with strict capacity control under carbon neutrality policies and increasing safety and environmental regulations limiting overproduction. Supply is regionally differentiated, with production difficulties increasing in eastern regions and a concentration of domestic capacity in the west, raising supply costs. The position of coal as a primary energy source is unlikely to change in the short term, and despite weak macroeconomic conditions affecting demand, rigid supply and rising costs support coal price stability [5][6] Summary by Sections Thermal Coal - As of June 13, 2025, the Qinhuangdao 5500K thermal coal price is 609 RMB/ton, unchanged week-on-week, with slight increases in Shanxi and Shaanxi production prices. The operating rate of coal mines in Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia is 80.7%, down 0.8 percentage points week-on-week. Daily consumption at power plants has slightly increased, while coal inventories have decreased [3][4][5] - The long-term contract price for Qinhuangdao thermal coal (Q5500) is 669 RMB/ton, down 6.0 RMB/ton month-on-month and down 31.0% year-on-year [24] - The report highlights that the operating rates of coal mines in the three provinces (Shanxi, Shaanxi, Inner Mongolia) have slightly decreased, with a total production of 62,296 million tons year-to-date, an increase of 5.6% year-on-year [36] Coking Coal - As of June 13, 2025, the price of main coking coal at Jingtang Port is 1230 RMB/ton, down 40 RMB/ton week-on-week, with prices in Shanxi, Henan, and Anhui remaining stable. The operating rate of large coking plants is 79.3%, down 1.4 percentage points week-on-week [4][68] - The report notes that the average available days of coking coal in domestic independent coking plants is 9.7 days, down 1.02% [68]

Group 1: Geopolitical Impact on Oil Prices - The escalation of conflict in the Middle East, particularly Israel's airstrike on Iran, has led to a significant surge in oil prices, with Brent and WTI reaching highs of $78.5 and $74.63 per barrel, respectively, marking daily increases of 12.0% and 13.2%[3] - Historical context shows that similar geopolitical tensions in the 1970s and 1980s resulted in oil supply reductions and subsequent economic impacts, including high inflation rates in the U.S. reaching peaks of 12.2% and 11.9% for overall and core CPI, respectively[4] Group 2: U.S. Economic Policy and Inflation - The U.S. Department of Commerce announced new tariffs on various steel household appliances, which may accelerate the rebound of core inflation, previously subdued by temporary factors[5] - The core PPI in the U.S. slightly decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 2.7% in May, indicating a potential shift in inflation dynamics due to the new tariffs and rising oil prices[5] - Federal Reserve Chair Powell has expressed concerns about potential stagflation risks, suggesting that the Fed's current stance may be relatively accommodative, with low probabilities for significant rate cuts this year[5] Group 3: Domestic Economic Outlook - China's mid-range consumer goods exports have weakened recently, and the new U.S. tariffs could introduce uncertainties in export dynamics, necessitating increased fiscal support to mitigate risks[5] - The central government may need to enhance subsidies for domestic consumption of durable goods, especially if export pressures increase due to U.S. tariff policies[5] - A potential small rate cut of 10 basis points may be considered to stabilize real estate expectations and stimulate durable goods consumption amid a low U.S. dollar index[5]