行 有色金属 2025 年 03 月 01 日 业 研 究 有色金属 宏观政策不确定性加大，给金价提供避险支撑 投资要点： 行 业 定 期 报 告 贵金属：市场多空博弈加剧，黄金价格震荡偏弱运行。本周美联储短 期内降息预期不强，叠加俄乌停战预期，打压黄金价格走势。但特朗普关 税计划所带来的不确定性不断增加，抑制了风险偏好，仍给金价提供避险 支撑。短期来看，全球贸易战扩大的担忧加剧，市场对未来经济滞涨担忧 仍在，预计贵金属价格震荡为主；中长期角度来看，全球主要经济体货币 政策方向明确，东欧及朝鲜半岛等地缘冲突仍将凸显贵金属避险属性，中 国央行1月增持黄金，贵金属中长期配置价值不改。个股：黄金建议关注中 金黄金、紫金矿业、山东黄金、赤峰黄金，低估弹性关注株冶集团和玉龙 股份，其他关注银泰黄金、湖南黄金及招金矿业；白银建议关注兴业银锡、 银泰黄金、盛达资源。 工业金属：基本面偏紧预期仍在演绎，价格易涨难跌。铜，供给端： 本周进口铜矿TC均价再度下探，当前为-12至-11美元/吨，智利本周出现大 面积缺电的情况，国有巨头Codelco四大主力矿山完全停摆。需求端，精铜 杆厂陆续复工但终端需求恢复缓慢抑制提货节奏。全球 ...

煤炭 2025 年 03 月 01 日 华福证券 煤炭 港口开启去库，积极关注左侧布局机会 投资要点： ➢ 动力煤 截至 2025 年 2 月 28 日，秦港 5500K 动力末煤平仓价 690 元/吨， 周环比-29 元/吨。产地价格大跌，晋陕蒙三省煤矿开工率为 82.4%，周 环比+0.4pct。本周电厂日耗小涨，电厂库存小跌、港口库存大跌；非电 方面，甲醇开工率小跌、尿素开工率微跌，仍处于历史同期偏高水平， 截至 2 月 27 日，甲醇开工率为 87.9%，周环比-1.6pct，年同比+1.4pct； 截至 2 月 26 日，尿素开工率为 86.6%，周环比-0.1pct，年同比+2.2pct。 ➢ 焦煤 截至 2 月 28 日，京唐港主焦煤库提价 1390 元/吨，周环比-40 元/ 运，产地价格持平。铁水产量微涨，样本钢厂煤焦库存小涨。本周焦炭 价格小跌、螺纹钢价格小跌，截至 2 月 28 日，山西临汾一级冶金焦出 厂价 1400 元/吨，周环比-50 元/吨，螺纹钢现货价格 3310 元，周环比- 90 元/吨，焦炭第十轮提降落地，大型焦化开工率小跌，截至 2 月 28 日，焦化厂产能（＞200 ...

食品饮料 2025 年 03 月 01 日 食品饮料 情绪回暖，复苏可期 投资要点： 行 业 定 期 报 告 【白酒】当前 SW 白酒指数 PE-TTM 为 19.62，仅为 10 年历史 7.53%的较 低分位，具备较强安全边际；且板块仓位回落幅度及时长相对充分，目前 看仍具备较强配置属性。建议关注保价控量、具备降维打击、市占率提升 能力的茅台、五粮液，以及 alpha 势能延续的汾酒、古井。 【啤酒】重点推荐高端化核心标的青岛啤酒、提效改革叠加大单品逻辑的 燕京啤酒。 行 业 研 究 【软饮料】建议关注：1）功能饮料赛道龙头且逐步探索出第二增长曲线的 东鹏饮料；2）基本面具备积极预期的香飘飘。 【预调酒】百润股份作为预调酒行业龙头企业，公司历史行情通常为大单 品所驱动的 PE 扩张，行情较快，操作上更适合左侧布局，目前公司威士忌 已正式上市，当前公司 25 年 PE 为 29 倍上下，我们认为具备较大赔率。 【乳制品】重点推荐利润导向明显的全国乳企巨头伊利股份，关注其产品 结构优化带来的毛利率改善情况以及费用率投放情况。建议关注低温奶乳 企新乳业。 【休闲零食】年货旺季叠加新渠道微信小店的催化，板块景气度 ...

行 业 研 华福证券 埃夫特发布智能机器人通用技术底座，首秀人形机器人新品 2 月 28 日，由埃夫特主办的"第一届智能机器人通用技术底座开 发者大会暨 2025 埃夫特合作伙伴大会"在安徽芜湖隆重举行。开幕式 环节，埃夫特董事长兼总经理游玮博士重磅发布了智能机器人通用技 术底座，智能机器人通用技术底座的本质便是让机器人技能 APP 开发 过程更低门槛、更低成本、更高效的操作系统及其包含的算法库、数 据集、工具链和开发硬件。除智能机器人通用技术底座外，当天，埃 夫特还发布了搭载底座的全新系列化机器人产品。大会现场，埃夫特 第一代人形机器人 Yobot W1 闪亮登场，并于游玮博士进行互动。据介 绍，机器人采用双轮方案，具有良好的通过性，可实现稳定的行走与 运行。 人形机器人造福全人类，未来有望像汽车般普及 中国机器人网表示，目前来看，发展足够智能的人形机器人把人 类社会的重复性体力劳动接管过去将会是一个造福全人类的科技大方 向。据高工移动机器人，英伟达 CEO 黄仁勋曾公开表示：机器人时代 已经来临，具身智能是人工智能的下一波浪潮，未来人形机器人将像 汽车般普及。GGII 预测，中国人形机器人市场规模到 20 ...

行 华福证券 基础化工 2025 年 03 月 01 日 业 研 究 行 业 定 期 报 告 基础化工 行业周报：新疆能化准东煤化一体化项目开建， 钛白粉价格再度调涨 投资要点： 投资主线四：经济向好、需求复苏，龙头白马充分受益。随着海内外经济 回暖，主要化工品价格与需求均步入修复通道。化工行业龙头企业历经多年竞 强于大市（维持评级） 一年内行业相对大盘走势 本周板块行情：本周，上证综合指数下跌 1.72%，创业板指数下跌 4.87%， 沪深 300 下跌 2.22%，中信基础化工指数下跌 0.27%，申万化工指数下跌 0.94%。 化工各子行业板块涨跌幅：本周，化工板块涨幅前五的子行业分别为绵纶 (6.45%)、其他塑料制品(4.22%)、轮胎(3.7%)、粘胶(3.34%)、纯碱(2.11%)；化 工板块跌幅前五的子行业分别为氯碱(-6.66%)、改性塑料(-4.33%)、有机硅 (-4.29%)、电子化学品(-3.73%)、膜材料(-3.35%)。 本周行业主要动态： 新疆能化准东煤化一体化项目开建。2 月 23 日，规划总投资达 338 亿元 的新疆能化准东煤化一体化项目，在新疆准东经济技术开发区开工 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights the importance of the aging population in China, with the elderly population aged 60 and above reaching 267 million by the end of 2021, accounting for 18.9% of the total population, and expected to exceed 400 million by 2035, representing nearly 30% of the total population [3][4] - The rise of the silver economy is projected to reach a total value of 30 trillion yuan by 2035, accounting for 10% of GDP, covering industries such as healthcare and senior tourism, thus becoming a new economic growth point [3][4] - Government policies are driving the elderly population towards a confident, active, and independent lifestyle, changing traditional perceptions and breaking the notion that aging equates to decline [3][4] Group 2 - The new silver generation is redefining their lifestyles, with 54% of middle-aged and elderly individuals feeling younger than their actual age, and 42% believing that their later years will be more exciting than their middle age [4][5] - Over 68% of middle-aged and elderly individuals express a willingness to re-enter the workforce, with 46.7% seeking personal value realization through re-employment, indicating a shift towards pursuing dreams rather than merely meeting economic needs [5][6] - The trend of lifelong education and interest-based learning is flourishing, with 70% of middle-aged and elderly individuals starting to learn out of interest, and popular courses including singing, dancing, and technical skills [5][6] Group 3 - The report suggests focusing on related investment opportunities in the elderly education market, particularly online platforms that provide easy access to learning resources [6][8] - The entrepreneurial spirit among the new silver generation is evident, with many exploring new career paths and starting businesses, creating market opportunities for platforms and service providers [6][8] - Specific companies to watch include educational institutions, online learning platforms, entrepreneurial support platforms, and social media and content creation companies, which are positioned to benefit from the growing silver economy [6][8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative price increase of over 20% within the next six months [22]. Core Views - The company's Q4 performance has established a bottom, with revenue for 2024 projected at 40.739 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.02%, and a net profit of 3.126 billion yuan, up 1.29% year-on-year [3][4]. - The report highlights an improvement in supply-demand dynamics in the paper industry, with multiple price increases for cultural paper since November, suggesting a positive outlook for H1 2025 [4]. - The ongoing construction of the Nanning Phase II project is expected to enhance the company's integrated advantages in the pulp and paper industry, with additional production lines set to come online by 2026 [5]. Financial Performance and Forecast - The company achieved a revenue of 39.544 billion yuan in 2023, with a slight decline of 1% compared to the previous year, while net profit increased by 10% to 3.086 billion yuan [7]. - Revenue growth rates are forecasted at 3.0%, 6.6%, and 6.2% for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with net profit growth rates projected at 1.3%, 8.4%, and 16.8% for the same years [5][7]. - The report anticipates earnings per share (EPS) of 1.12 yuan for 2024, increasing to 1.42 yuan by 2026, reflecting a positive trend in profitability [7].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for China Shengmu [8][10]. Core Views - China Shengmu is the largest organic raw milk producer in China, focusing on upstream ranch operations and benefiting from a strong partnership with Mengniu Dairy, which holds a 29.99% stake in the company [3][8]. - The high-end organic milk market is expanding due to consumer upgrades driven by rising income levels and the emergence of a new middle class [5][30]. - The company has a unique geographical advantage in the Ulan Buh Desert, which enhances its product quality and safety, creating a competitive moat [6][65]. - The scale of operations allows the company to effectively manage risks and improve operational efficiency, particularly in the face of fluctuating feed prices [7][52]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - China Shengmu was founded in 2009 and became the first global organic raw milk stock listed in Hong Kong in 2014. The company has shifted its focus to organic raw milk production since 2018, partnering with Mengniu to enhance operational efficiency [18][21]. - The company operates a fully organic supply chain, from pasture planting to milk processing, and has received dual certification for organic standards from China and the EU [18][69]. Market Potential - The report highlights that the average per capita consumption expenditure in China has grown at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.96% from 2010 to 2023, indicating a strong foundation for high-end milk consumption [30]. - Organic milk is becoming a popular choice among consumers due to its higher quality standards and health benefits, with the market for organic products in China expected to grow significantly [37][47]. Operational Efficiency - The company has improved its operational efficiency by focusing on large-scale ranching, which reduces the risk of disease and allows for better cost management [7][52]. - The report notes that the proportion of organic raw milk sales has increased from 41.4% in 2019 to 77% in 2023, contributing to improved profitability [25][78]. Financial Forecasts - The projected net profits for 2024 to 2026 are expected to be -80 million, -20 million, and 291 million yuan, respectively, with significant growth anticipated in 2026 [8]. - The report estimates that the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for 2026 will be 6 times, reflecting the company's growth potential in the organic milk sector [8].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating that the overall return of the industry is expected to exceed the market benchmark index by more than 5% over the next 6 months [14]. Core Insights - Home Depot's Q4 revenue exceeded expectations, driven by increased demand for home renovations and outdoor refurbishments following a typhoon. The company reported Q4 revenue of $39.7 billion, a year-on-year increase of 14.1%, with a net profit of $3 billion, up 7% year-on-year [2][3]. - For FY24, Home Depot achieved total revenue of $159.5 billion, a 4.5% increase year-on-year, although comparable revenue declined by 1.8%. The company opened 10 new stores in the U.S. and 2 in Mexico during the fiscal year [2][3][4]. - The company anticipates a conservative outlook for FY25, projecting a revenue increase of 2.8% year-on-year and a comparable revenue increase of 1%. Despite a recovery in housing transactions, demand for large projects is expected to remain weak due to high mortgage rates [4]. Summary by Sections Q4 Performance - Home Depot's Q4 revenue was $39.7 billion, with a comparable revenue increase of 0.8%. The performance was influenced by seasonal factors and a strong demand for home improvement products, particularly in appliances, garden supplies, and building materials [3][4]. - The company experienced a gross margin of 32.8% in Q4, a slight decrease of 0.25 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to acquisition impacts [4]. FY24 Overview - For FY24, Home Depot's total revenue reached $159.5 billion, with a net profit of $14.8 billion, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 2.2% in net profit. The overall gross margin for the year was 33.4%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points year-on-year [2][4]. FY25 Outlook - The management's outlook for FY25 is cautious, with expectations of a 2.8% revenue growth and a gross margin target of 33.4%. The company does not foresee a significant increase in housing transaction volumes or a substantial drop in mortgage rates, which may affect large project demands [4].

Table_First|Table_Summary 固收定期研究 2025 年 2 月 23 日 【华福固收】从产业集群看待民企座谈会 及投资策略 ➢ 从产业集群看待民企座谈会及投资策略 2025年2月17日上午，中共中央总书记、国家主席、中央军委主席习近平在北京出席了民营企业 座谈会。总书记在本次座谈会的谈话，对国内众多民营企业的未来发展具有重要意义。不同省市 区县的资源禀赋、科技实力、高校人才、资金力度，虽然均有不同、各有差异，但是省会城市、 省域副中心、经济大市却仍存在大量优质上市公司、细分龙头企业及特色产业集群，地方政府可 以深入挖掘潜力的空间依然较多。国家及各部委不断推出的各类政策措施及资金扶持，以及各省 市正在打造"省级/市级产业基金"来赋能本地特色优势产业，对各种类型与规模的民营企业带 来较多帮助与裨益。 鉴于此，基于产业集群角度，后续可以重点关注区域可以分为三类。第一，可以重点关注有较多 中小企业特色产业集群的地级市、县级市及市辖区，尤其是《2024年度中小企业特色产业集群名 单》所分布的区域，例如经济大省的泰州兴化市、嘉兴海盐县、绍兴嵊州市等，以及属于各省 "经济大市"的宜春袁州区、河南巩义 ...