Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The CSI Convertible Bond Index is approaching its previous high, and the overall market valuation is at a moderately high level under the stock - bond steady state. The high - level operation of the index is mainly due to the sharp rise of low - price bonds since September 2024. The current convertible bond valuation is moderately high, and if the market remains stable, the valuation is expected to maintain the current equilibrium level. The Vega strategy can capture mispriced convertible bonds in terms of volatility sensitivity. When market volatility intensifies, low - Vega convertible bonds show stronger resilience. In the current market situation, using the low - to - medium Vega strategy for bond selection is a good approach, and the Q2 quantile Vega portfolio is more practical [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Analysis of the Convertible Bond Market Situation - The CSI Convertible Bond Index is approaching its previous high, mainly driven by the sharp rise of low - price bonds since September 2024. The overall market valuation is moderately high, with the 100 - yuan premium rate maintaining in the 22% - 23% range as of May 30. Historically, valuation compression was caused by micro - cap stock negative feedback, the large - cap dividend style, and credit risk events. If the market remains stable, the valuation is expected to stay at the current equilibrium [5][6][9]. - Different price ranges of convertible bonds show significant valuation differentiation. Bonds priced between 100 - 110 yuan are mostly bond - like, and their valuation is at a five - year high. High - and medium - priced convertible bonds have relatively lower valuations, with those above 130 yuan at a low level since 2021 [7]. 2. The Convertible Bond's Low - to - Medium Vega Strategy 2.1 How the Low - to - Medium Vega Strategy Resists Volatility - Convertible bonds are a composite product of bonds and embedded options, and their value is often mispriced due to stock - bond fluctuations. The Vega strategy can capture mispriced convertible bonds in terms of volatility sensitivity. When market volatility increases, low - to - medium Vega convertible bonds show stronger resilience [14]. 2.2 How to Construct the Low - to - Medium Vega Portfolio - Determine the convertible bond pool: On the rebalancing day, select bonds with a rating above BBB (excluding), a remaining term of more than 1 year, a listing date of more than one year ago, and a balance of more than 100 million yuan. - Calculate the convertible bond Vega value: On the rebalancing day, calculate the Vega values of eligible convertible bonds, select valid and positive Vega values, and exclude extremely high and low Vega values. - Construct the portfolio: Divide the calculated Vega values into five equal groups using the quantile method, with a two - way fee of 0.3%. Rebalance on the first trading day of each month and calculate the portfolio return, IC value, and win - rate using equal - weight [18]. 2.3 When Different Quantile Vega Strategies Dominate - In the rapid upward period (October 2024 - March 2025), the Q3 quantile Vega convertible bond portfolio achieved the best risk - return ratio, with a ranking of Q3>Q4>Q2>Q5>Q1 in terms of return and Q3<Q2<Q5<Q4<Q1 in terms of volatility [23]. - In the sideways shock period (May - July 2023), the Q2 quantile Vega portfolio had the best risk - return ratio, with a return ranking of Q3>Q2>Q4>Q5>Q1 and a volatility ranking of Q5<Q4<Q2<Q1<Q3 [24]. - In the rapid downward period (June - September 2024), the medium - quantile Vega convertible bond portfolio had the smallest drawdown, with a return ranking of Q3>Q4>Q2>Q1>Q5 and a volatility ranking of Q2<Q3<Q4<Q5<Q1 [27]. - The low - to - medium quantile Vega portfolio can balance upward elasticity and downward drawdown, and has good adaptability in different market styles. In terms of annual performance, its Sharpe ratio ranked first in different years and achieved excess returns during the 2022 Q4 fixed - income + product redemption wave and the 2024 convertible bond credit event [30]. 2.4 The Unique Alpha of the Low - to - Medium Quantile Vega Portfolio - Since 2021, the Q2 and Q3 quantile Vega portfolios have obtained Alpha compared to the double - low strategy under the same conditions, especially showing relative advantages in a market environment with declining risk appetite and rising volatility. However, the low - to - medium quantile Vega portfolio's significant drawdowns were mostly due to credit events [32]. 2.5 The Cost - Effectiveness of the Current Low - to - Medium Vega Strategy - Currently, convertible bonds are not cheap, and it is difficult for the stock market to rise significantly. The market may enter a shock period. In this environment, the low - to - medium Vega factor strategy has high cost - effectiveness, and the Q2 quantile portfolio is expected to be more cost - effective [34].

Group 1 - The report highlights the price increase of chromium oxide green and the frequent safety issues in the chemical industry, emphasizing the need to focus on capacity reduction in the sector [3][4][6] - The chromium salt industry is expected to experience significant opportunities as demand shifts from traditional low-growth applications to high-growth sectors such as AI data centers and aerospace [4][5] - The supply-demand tension in the phosphate rock market is anticipated to continue, with existing production capacity facing delays and increasing demand from lithium iron phosphate batteries [4][5] Group 2 - The report emphasizes the importance of new materials in the chemical industry, which is expected to see rapid growth driven by policy support and technological breakthroughs [33][38] - Key sectors to focus on include electronic information materials, aerospace materials, and renewable energy materials, with specific companies highlighted for their strong positions in these areas [34][36][38] - The hydrogen energy sector is projected to lead global consumption in 2024, with significant advancements in renewable energy hydrogen production [39] Group 3 - The report on Li Auto indicates a slight increase in gross margin and a year-on-year profit growth, with Q1 2025 revenue reaching 25.93 billion yuan [46][47] - The company has launched new models equipped with advanced driving assistance systems, enhancing its competitive edge in the electric vehicle market [49][50] - Li Auto's delivery volume is expected to grow in Q2 2025, with projected revenue between 32.5 billion and 33.8 billion yuan [50] Group 4 - The aluminum industry is experiencing a favorable macro environment, with potential easing of tariff pressures and improved inventory management during the off-season [54][56] - The report notes stable operating capacity in the electrolytic aluminum sector, with a slight increase in production costs due to rising alumina prices [56][57] - Demand for aluminum in various sectors, including construction and automotive, is expected to remain stable, although some segments may face seasonal slowdowns [56][57]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the HNB industry, indicating a positive outlook based on favorable market conditions and consumer preferences [1][45]. Core Insights - The Japanese HNB market is one of the largest globally, reaching a scale of 10 billion USD in 2023, driven by stable policies and changing consumer habits [6][9]. - The market exhibits an oligopolistic structure dominated by key players such as PMI, JT, and BAT, with a CR2 exceeding 70% [30][29]. - Continuous product iteration among major manufacturers is expected to sustain growth, with new product launches anticipated to create additional market opportunities [38][34]. Summary by Sections Japanese HNB Market Overview - The Japanese HNB market is the largest globally, with a market size of 10 billion USD in 2023, reflecting a growth rate of over 10% from 2020 to 2023 [9][6]. - A stable policy environment supports HNB product growth, with favorable regulations and lower tax rates compared to traditional cigarettes [13][14]. - HNB penetration rates have surpassed 40% overall and 50% in major cities by 2024, indicating significant growth potential [22][27]. Market Structure - The Japanese HNB market is characterized by an oligopolistic structure, with PMI holding over 60% market share, followed by JT and BAT [30][34]. - Each major player has core products that drive growth through continuous innovation, with differences in heating technology and user experience [34][38]. - A new product iteration cycle is expected in 2025, with BAT's Glo Hilo set to launch, potentially enhancing market penetration and competitive positioning [38][39]. Consumer Preferences and Trends - Japanese consumers show a strong preference for innovative and healthier smoking alternatives, which aligns with the characteristics of HNB products [17][19]. - The demand for low-tar and low-nicotine products is increasing, and HNB products are gaining acceptance in various social settings [17][18]. - The trend towards stylish and technologically advanced products is driving the growth of HNB consumption among urban consumers [19][20].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company is expected to enter a harvest period in 2025 due to the ramp-up of passenger car seat production and the integration of Grammer [2][5] - Positive changes observed in 2024 include the first annual breakeven for passenger car seats, asset divestiture from Grammer, and the growth of new products like hidden electric air vents and car refrigerators [5][6] Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company is a leading player in the automotive headrest market and is expanding into complete seat assemblies, creating a second growth avenue [15] - The company has evolved from a domestic headrest leader to a global interior supplier, with significant growth opportunities in the seat business [15][19] Passenger Car Seats - The passenger car seat market is projected to exceed 1 trillion yuan, driven by enhanced consumer demand and increased seat functionality [6][44] - The company has a robust order book with over 20 ongoing projects, expecting revenues from passenger car seats to reach 5-7 billion yuan in 2025 [6][9] Grammer Integration - The integration of Grammer has seen operational improvements in Europe and Asia, while the Americas have faced losses [6][22] - The company plans to divest the loss-making TMD assets in North America, which is expected to improve overall financial performance [6][22] Financial Projections - Revenue is forecasted to grow from 25.99 billion yuan in 2025 to 32.11 billion yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of 17% [8] - Net profit is expected to rebound significantly, reaching 631 million yuan in 2025 and 1.45 billion yuan by 2027 [8] Market Trends - The average value of passenger car seats is anticipated to rise to 5,000 yuan by 2025, with the domestic market size projected to reach 139.1 billion yuan [44] - The company is well-positioned to capitalize on the growing demand for advanced seat features and lightweight materials [43][44]

2025 年 06 月 03 日 北交所行业研究 研究所： 证券分析师： 罗琨 S0350522110003 luok@ghzq.com.cn 联系人 ： 禹露 S0350124070012 yul06@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 本周北交所流动性收缩，世昌股份/志高机械上 会通过 ——北交所行业周报 | 行业相对表现 | | | 2025/05/30 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 北证 | 50 | 8.96% | 3.12% | 79.99% | | 沪深 | 300 | 1.73% | -3.22% | 6.27% | 相关报告 《北交所行业周报：本周北证 50 阶段性回调，下 周世昌股份/志高机械上会、交大铁发申购（推荐） *中小盘*罗琨》——2025-05-26 《北交所行业周报：本周北证 50 继续领涨，交投 活跃度持续上升，天工股份正式上市（推荐）*中 小盘*罗琨》——2025-05-19 《北交所行业周报：本周北证 50 实现领涨、交投 活跃度明显提升，下周天工股份上市（推荐 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the aluminum industry [1] Core Views - The report indicates that tariff pressures are expected to ease further, and the off-season destocking performance is better than anticipated. The aluminum industry is likely to experience a continuous trend of destocking and price increases, supported by improving export conditions [10] - The long-term outlook for the aluminum industry remains positive due to limited supply growth and potential demand increases, maintaining a high level of industry prosperity [10] Summary by Sections 1. Prices - As of May 30, the LME three-month aluminum closing price was $2,448.5 per ton, while the Shanghai aluminum active contract closing price was ¥20,070.0 per ton [14][20] - The average price of A00 aluminum in Changjiang was ¥20,240.0 per ton, down ¥160.0 from the previous week [20] 2. Production - In May 2025, the production of electrolytic aluminum was 3.729 million tons, an increase of 123,000 tons month-on-month and 214,000 tons year-on-year [53] - The production of alumina in May 2025 was 7.272 million tons, up 189,000 tons month-on-month and 593,000 tons year-on-year [53] 3. Inventory - As of May 29, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in major domestic consumption areas was 511,000 tons, a decrease of 46,000 tons week-on-week [7] - The inventory of aluminum rods was recorded at 128,300 tons, with a slight decrease of 2,500 tons week-on-week [7] 4. Key Companies and Earnings Forecast - Key companies include Shenhuo Co., China Hongqiao, Tianshan Aluminum, China Aluminum, and Yun Aluminum, all rated as "Buy" with projected earnings per share (EPS) growth [5] 5. Supply and Demand - Domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity remains stable, with a slight increase in the alloying ratio affecting the delivery situation [7] - Demand from downstream sectors is showing signs of weakness, particularly in photovoltaic aluminum and automotive materials, while cable orders remain strong due to state grid demand [7]

Economic Overview - The overall economy shows strong resilience, with supply better than demand, characterized by weak domestic demand and stable exports. The manufacturing PMI for May 2025 improved to 49.5, indicating a slight recovery but still below the neutral level of 50 [7][12] - The manufacturing production index rose above 50 to 50.7, reflecting improved business conditions, while the strategic emerging industries PMI increased to 51, indicating growth in new orders and exports [12][15] Liquidity Conditions - The liquidity environment is characterized by external tightening and internal easing. The expectation for a Federal Reserve rate cut has been delayed, with the first cut potentially pushed to September 2025. Domestic liquidity is expected to remain stable and slightly loose following recent rate cuts [7][28][35] Policy Focus - The policy direction is concentrated on foreign trade, employment, and consumption. Recent measures include accelerating national bond issuance and targeted support for small and micro enterprises, technology industries, and employment stabilization [49][51] - Local governments are implementing consumption-boosting policies, including subsidies for various consumer goods and services, to stimulate domestic demand [52][56] Industry Allocation - The report suggests focusing on the technology, military, and electronics sectors for June 2025. The technology sector is expected to benefit from favorable conditions and catalysts, including significant financial policy announcements and advancements in autonomous driving technology [58] - Specific recommendations include companies in the computer sector such as Haiguang Information and Kingsoft, military firms like Aero Engine Corporation of China, and electronics companies such as Longi Green Energy [65][59][60][61] Computer Sector Insights - The computer sector is supported by strong demand for computing power, as evidenced by Nvidia's revenue growth of 69% year-on-year, reaching $44.1 billion in Q1 FY26, exceeding market expectations [59] - The supply chain for domestic computing is expected to benefit from U.S. export restrictions on certain chip series, enhancing the competitive position of local firms [59] Military Sector Insights - The military sector is anticipated to see accelerated orders as 2025 marks the conclusion of the 14th Five-Year Plan, with a focus on high-quality development in military construction [60] - The international military trade space is expected to expand, particularly following successful technology showcases at international defense exhibitions [60] Electronics Sector Insights - The electronics sector is poised for growth due to ongoing U.S. technology restrictions, which create opportunities for domestic semiconductor replacements [62] - Developments in autonomous vehicle technology and upcoming major tech events, such as Apple's Worldwide Developers Conference, are expected to provide further momentum for the electronics industry [62]

2025 年 06 月 03 日 晨会纪要 研究所： 证券分析师： 余春生 S0350513090001 yucs@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 晨会纪要 ——2025 年第 92 期 观点精粹: 我们认为 Meta 不仅通过 AI 优先的战略构建了世界一流的 AI 内容广告推荐系统和大模型，还有望通过"AI+ 主营业务"实现大规划 AI 货币化变现。我们看好 Meta AI 优先战略，认为公司不仅能凭借全球领先的 GPU 驱 动的生成式 AI 推荐系统推动用户时长与活跃度的进一步增长，还能借助 Advantage+ AI 广告系统进一步提升 广告 CPM，对于开源大模型 Llama，公司也能通过智能眼镜、Click-to-Message、AI 助手互动广告等实现深 度变现。 核心问题一：如何量化 AI 对 Meta 业务的弹性贡献？ AI 推荐系统是 Meta 资本开支的主要方向，公司有望凭借 GPU 驱动的生成式 AI 推荐系统稳固社交龙头地位。 公司于 2024Q1 宣布建成 GPU 驱动的 Reels AI 统一推荐系统，采用 10 万片 H100 GPU，驱动 8%-10%的用 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the automotive industry [1] Core Views - The automotive sector is expected to benefit from the continuation of the vehicle trade-in policy, which supports upward consumer spending [22] - The report highlights a new phase of domestic brands entering high-end markets, with companies offering quality vehicles priced above 300,000 yuan likely to benefit significantly [22] - The report emphasizes the potential for high-level autonomous driving technology to become more affordable, increasing its penetration rate [22] Summary by Sections Recent Developments - The launch of the Zun Jie S800, priced between 708,000 to 1,018,000 yuan, aims to break the foreign monopoly in the luxury car segment [8][18] - Xiaopeng Motors introduced the MONA M03 Max version starting at 129,800 yuan, with strong sales performance noted [9][19] - BYD, Geely, and Chery have initiated limited-time promotional offers to boost sales [10][20] Market Performance - The automotive sector underperformed compared to the Shanghai Composite Index from May 26 to May 30, with a decline of 4.1% [11][23] - The report notes a significant drop in the stock prices of major automotive companies during the same period [11][23] Company Focus and Earnings Forecast - Ideal Auto reported Q1 2025 revenue of 25.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.1%, with a projected delivery of 123,000 to 128,000 vehicles in Q2 2025 [21][12] - The report recommends several companies, including Ideal Auto, Jianghuai Auto, Geely, BYD, and Great Wall Motors, as key players to watch in the high-end market [22] Industry Indicators - The report tracks various industry indicators, including monthly sales and inventory levels, to assess market health [17][18]

Group 1: Key Points on Tariff Policy - The U.S. government plans to cancel 91% of additional tariffs and suspend 24% of reciprocal tariffs for 90 days, retaining 10%[4] - In FY2024, U.S. tariff revenue is projected to be approximately $77.04 billion, accounting for 1.57% of total fiscal revenue[12] - In April 2025, U.S. tariff revenue reached $16.3 billion, marking a month-on-month increase of about 86% and a year-on-year increase of approximately 130%[12] Group 2: Economic Implications - The IMF has downgraded the global growth forecast for 2025 to 2.8%, with a 40% probability of U.S. economic recession[43] - The proposed tax reform aims to reduce taxes by over $4 trillion over the next decade, potentially increasing public debt by at least $3 trillion[43] - The U.S. faces significant interest expenses, with FY2024 federal interest payments estimated at $1.13 trillion, and $684.1 billion already spent by April 2025[14] Group 3: Political Considerations - Trump's approval rating was reported at 42%, the lowest during his second term, with only 39% approval for his economic performance[11] - The upcoming midterm elections in November 2026 are a significant concern for the Trump administration, as historical trends suggest potential losses for the incumbent party[11] - Support for specific proposals, such as increasing tariffs as a negotiation strategy, stands at 49% among voters[11] Group 4: Market Reactions - Following the implementation of reciprocal tariffs, the U.S. capital markets experienced a significant downturn, with major indices dropping between 5.5% and 5.97%[18] - The U.S. dollar index fell by 8.2% year-to-date, reflecting market reactions to tariff policies[18] - Moody's downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating from Aaa to Aa1, indicating increased concerns over fiscal stability[18]