2025 年 03 月 20 日 行业研究 评级：推荐(维持) 证券分析师： 陈梦竹 S0350521090003 [Table_Title] 中国大陆补贴与关税急单推升台厂景气， 存储涨势未歇 ——台股电子 2025 年 2 月报 《台股电子 2025 年 1 月报：AI 驱动的高速成长或 将持续，中国大陆补贴助攻部分台厂淡季不淡（推 荐）*陈梦竹》——2025-2-24 《台股电子 2024 年 12 月报：AI 仍是 2025 年台股 电子成长关键词（推荐）*陈梦竹》——2025-1-22 《台股电子月报：续乘 AI 之风，高歌向明天（推 荐）*陈梦竹》——2024-12-20 最近一年走势 《台股电子月报：AI 相关需求持续畅旺（推荐）* 海外*陈梦竹》——2024-11-19 相关报告 投资要点: 国海证券研究所 请务必阅读正文后免责条款部分 研究所： chenmz@ghzq.com.cn 联系人 ： 邱怡瑄 S0350124070030 qiuyx@ghzq.com.cn 行业相对表现 表现 1M 3M 12M 中国台湾电 子指数 沪深 300 1.8% 1.6% 12.1% -9.5% -7.1 ...

[Table_Title] 晨会纪要 2025 年 03 月 20 日 晨会纪要 ——2025 年第 45 期 研究所： 证券分析师： 余春生 S0350513090001 yucs@ghzq.com.cn 1、最新报告摘要 1.1、基本面阶段性探底，等待供需回暖--行业动态研究 分析师：陈晨 S0350522110007 联系人：张益 S0350124100016 事件： 2025 年 3 月 17 日，国家统计局发布 2025 年 1-2 月能源生产情况： 煤炭：原煤生产增速加快。1-2 月份，规上工业原煤产量 7.7 亿吨，同比增长 7.7%，增速比上年 12 月份加快 3.5pct；日均产量 1297 万吨。 电力：规上工业电力生产略有下降。1-2 月份，规上工业发电量 14921 亿千瓦时，同比下降 1.3%；日均发电 252.9 亿千瓦时，同比增长 0.4%。分品种看，1-2 月份，规上工业风电增速加快，水电、核电、太阳能发电同 比增速放缓，火电降幅扩大。其中，规上工业火电发电量同比下降 5.8%，降幅比上年 12 月份扩大 3.2pct； 规上工业水电增长 4.5%，增速放缓 1.0pct；规上 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Hongqiao [1][10] Core Views - The company's revenue for 2024 reached 156.17 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 16.9%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 22.37 billion RMB, up 95.2% year-on-year [4][6] - The significant growth in performance is attributed to increased sales volumes and prices of aluminum and alumina, alongside a decrease in procurement costs for coal and anodes [6] - The company plans to distribute a total dividend of 1.61 HKD per share for 2024, resulting in a dividend payout ratio of nearly 63% and a dividend yield of approximately 10.7% [6][9] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, aluminum alloy product sales were approximately 5.837 million tons, up 1.5% year-on-year, with a unit price of 17,550 RMB/ton, a 6.6% increase, and a unit cost of 13,233 RMB/ton, down 2.7%, leading to a unit gross profit of 4,317 RMB/ton, up 50.8% [6] - Alumina sales reached about 10.921 million tons, a 5.3% increase, with a unit price of 3,420 RMB/ton, up 33.6%, and a unit cost of 2,208 RMB/ton, down 2.9%, resulting in a unit gross profit of 1,212 RMB/ton, up 324.7% [6] Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 156.65 billion RMB, 162.26 billion RMB, and 166.81 billion RMB, with growth rates of 0.3%, 3.6%, and 2.8% respectively [9] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 25.21 billion RMB, 27.52 billion RMB, and 30.02 billion RMB for the same years, with growth rates of 13%, 9%, and 9% respectively [9] Valuation Metrics - The report indicates a current P/E ratio of 5.23 for 2025, decreasing to 4.39 by 2027, reflecting the company's strong earnings growth potential [9][10] - The projected ROE remains stable at around 22% for the next few years, indicating consistent profitability [10]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for Huafeng Measurement Control in the semiconductor industry, and for Maogeping in the cosmetics sector, as well as for China Hongqiao in the industrial metals sector, and for Xunlei in the overseas market [5][10][14][20] Core Views - Huafeng Measurement Control's Q4 net profit increased significantly, with a year-on-year growth of 121.30% and a revenue increase of 65.08% [3][4] - Maogeping's product sales strategy has shifted to bundled offerings, enhancing sales efficiency, with a revenue growth of 41% in H1 2024 [8][9] - China Hongqiao's revenue reached 1561.7 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 16.9%, driven by higher aluminum and alumina sales [11][12] - Xunlei's total revenue was 3.24 billion USD, with a focus on increasing membership revenue, despite a decline in cloud computing and live streaming services [15][17] Summary by Sections Huafeng Measurement Control / Semiconductor - The company achieved a revenue of 905 million RMB in 2024, a 31.05% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 334 million RMB, up 32.69% [3] - The testing system revenue grew by 37.52% to 815 million RMB, with the core product STS8300 seeing significant sales growth [4] - The company is expanding high-end production capacity and has plans to raise up to 1 billion RMB for R&D and manufacturing projects [5] Maogeping / Cosmetics - The company launched a new product combination strategy, which is expected to enhance sales efficiency [8] - Revenue and net profit growth rates for 2021-2023 were 35% and 41% respectively, with a gross margin of 84.9% in H1 2024 [9] - The company has a strong product development capability with 387 products and a robust channel management strategy [9] China Hongqiao / Industrial Metals - The company reported a significant increase in net profit to 223.7 billion RMB, a 95.2% year-on-year growth [11] - The increase in aluminum and alumina sales, along with a decrease in raw material costs, contributed to the profit growth [12] - The company plans to maintain a high dividend payout ratio of nearly 63% [13] Xunlei / Overseas - The company reported a total revenue of 3.24 billion USD, with a focus on membership services which grew by 12% [15][17] - The decline in cloud computing revenue was attributed to increased competition and pricing pressures [17] - Xunlei is expected to benefit from the acquisition of Hupu and the upcoming IPO of Ying Shi Innovation [19][20]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [1][10]. Core Insights - The company, Xunlei (XNET), reported a total revenue of $324 million for 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 11.1%. The revenue for Q4 was $84 million, showing a year-on-year increase of 9.3%. The gross margin improved to 51.7%, up by 7.0 percentage points from the previous year. The net profit attributable to shareholders was $1.2 million, with a net profit margin of 0.4%, down by 3.5 percentage points year-on-year. The Non-GAAP net profit was $24 million, with a Non-GAAP net margin of 7.4%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points year-on-year [4][6][7]. Revenue Breakdown - Membership business revenue reached $134 million, up 12.0% year-on-year, driven by an increase in membership numbers, which grew to 6.38 million by the end of 2024 from 5.99 million in 2023. Cloud computing revenue was $105 million, down 15.3% year-on-year due to intensified competition and pricing pressures. Revenue from live streaming and other internet value-added services was $86 million, down 29.5% year-on-year, primarily due to a reduction in domestic live streaming activities [6][9]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts total revenues of $370 million, $421 million, and $464 million for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, representing year-on-year growth rates of 15%, 14%, and 10%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be $1.9 million, $2.2 million, and $2.5 million for the same years, with growth rates of 1,453%, 18%, and 13% respectively [8][9]. Strategic Developments - Xunlei has reached an agreement to acquire the operating company of Hupu for RMB 500 million, expected to positively impact profitability. Additionally, the company will hold a 7.8% stake in Ying Shi Innovation, a provider of panoramic camera solutions, which is set to go public on the Shanghai Stock Exchange [9][10].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the industry, suggesting that the industry fundamentals are favorable, with the industry index expected to outperform the CSI 300 index [8]. Core Insights - The report highlights that social financing (社融) increased by 1.32 trillion yuan year-on-year in January-February 2025, primarily driven by a 1.49 trillion yuan increase in government bonds [3]. - The report notes a decline in M1 growth rate to 0.1% by the end of February 2025, while M2 growth remained stable at 7.0% [3]. - It emphasizes the need to monitor the pace of policy implementation and signals of marginal improvement in M1 [3]. - The report states that total social financing (社融) increased by 2.23 trillion yuan in February 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 8.2% by the end of February [3]. - It mentions that credit data showed a decline, with a 4.4 trillion yuan year-on-year decrease in new RMB loans in February 2025 [3]. - The investment strategy suggests that social financing maintains a stable and positive growth rate, with significant fiscal support evident [3]. Summary by Sections - **Social Financing**: In January-February 2025, social financing increased by 9.29 trillion yuan, with government bonds being the main contributor, adding 1.49 trillion yuan [3]. - **Credit Data**: RMB loans increased by 6.14 trillion yuan in January-February 2025, but this was a decrease of 230 billion yuan year-on-year [3]. - **Deposits**: Total deposits increased by 2.3 trillion yuan year-on-year, with household deposits rising by 6.13 trillion yuan, while corporate deposits decreased by 1.1 trillion yuan [3].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [1]. Core Insights - The company has demonstrated strong revenue and net profit growth, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 35% for revenue and 41% for net profit from 2021 to 2023. For the first half of 2024, revenue and net profit both increased by 41% year-on-year [4][6]. - The company has a robust product development capability, with a total of 387 products as of June 30, 2024, including 337 makeup items and 50 skincare items, averaging about 75 new product upgrades annually [6]. - The company has a strong channel management capability, with 372 self-operated counters, ranking second among all beauty brands in China, and a diverse online sales presence across major e-commerce platforms [6]. - The company targets the high-end segment of the makeup market, maintaining a significant price difference from international brands, with a strong performance in light-reflecting products [6]. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 40.58 billion, 55.56 billion, and 72.94 billion RMB for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 41%, 37%, and 31% [7]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 8.9 billion, 12.2 billion, and 16.3 billion RMB for the same years, with growth rates of 35%, 37%, and 34% [7]. - The report provides a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio forecast of 52, 38, and 28 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, based on the closing price of 101.0 HKD on March 14, 2024 [6][7].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [1][8]. Core Insights - The company achieved a significant increase in net profit and revenue in Q4 2024, with a year-on-year net profit growth of 121.30% and revenue growth of 65.08% [5][6]. - The company is expanding its high-end production capacity and has introduced new testing systems, which are currently undergoing customer validation [7][8]. - The projected revenue and net profit for 2025-2027 are expected to grow steadily, with revenues of 11.72 billion, 14.59 billion, and 17.75 billion respectively, and net profits of 4.59 billion, 5.87 billion, and 7.38 billion [9][11]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported total revenue of 905 million, a 31.05% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 334 million, reflecting a 32.69% increase [5][9]. - The gross margin for 2024 was 73.31%, showing a year-on-year increase of 0.84 percentage points, while the net margin was 36.88%, up by 0.45 percentage points [7][11]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 was 2.47, with projections of 3.39 for 2025 and 4.34 for 2026 [9][11]. Market Performance - The company's stock has outperformed the CSI 300 index significantly over the past year, with a 12-month performance of 54.7% compared to the index's 12.5% [4][6]. - As of March 14, 2025, the stock price was 148.22, with a market capitalization of approximately 20,074.83 million [4][11].

2025 年 03 月 18 日 晨会纪要 研究所： 证券分析师： 余春生 S0350513090001 yucs@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 晨会纪要 ——2025 年第 43 期 观点精粹: 最新报告摘要 零跑 B10 正式开启预售，2025 款小鹏 G6/G9 上市--行业周报 供给约束大，非电需求未明显变化，煤价窄幅波动--行业周报 北证 50 涨幅放缓，本周天工股份提交注册、下周开发科技申购--北交所行业普通报告 降息预期修正到位了吗？--固定收益点评 爱婴室(603214.SH)公司深度报告：母婴业务持续优化，万代 IP 授权开启第二增长曲线--爱婴室/专业连锁 Ⅱ(603214/214504) 公司 PPT 报告 证券研究报告 1、最新报告摘要 1.1、零跑 B10 正式开启预售，2025 款小鹏 G6/G9 上市--行业周报 分析师：戴畅 S0350523120004 投资要点： 2025.3.10-3.14 A 股汽车板块跑输上证综指。一周涨跌幅（3 月 10 日至 14 日）：上证综指+1.4%，创业板指 +1.0％，汽车板块指数+0.8％，其中乘用车/商用车/零部 ...

2025年03月 17 日 北交所行业研究 研究所: 证券分析师: S0350522110003 罗 琨 luok@ghzg.com.cn 联系人 岛露 S0350124070012 yul06@ghzq.com.cn 北证 50 涨幅放缓,本周天工股份提交注册、下 周开发科技申购 一北交所行业周报 最近一年走势 and and add a 投资要点: 北交所行情简述:1)整体行情:截至 2025年3月14日,北证 A 股成分股 264个,平均市值 30.26 亿元。本周(2025.3.10-2025.3.14, 下同)北证 50 指数涨跌幅 1.33%,收盘 1409.76点:同期沪深 300、 创业板指、科创 50 涨跌幅分别为 1.59%、0.97%、-1.76%。流动性 | 行业相对表现 | | 2025/03/14 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 北证 50 | 13.43% | 15.62% | 62.67% | | 沪深 300 | 2.60% | 1.87% | 12.15% | 相关报告 《北交所行业周报:本周北证 ...