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金徽酒(603919):2024年报点评:业绩增速亮眼,结构持续优化
Guohai Securities· 2025-03-25 09:27
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1][8] Core Views - The company has shown impressive revenue growth of 18.59% year-on-year, reaching 3.021 billion yuan in 2024, with a net profit of 388 million yuan, also up 18.03% year-on-year [4][5] - The product structure continues to optimize, with over 70% of revenue coming from products priced above 100 yuan, reflecting a shift towards higher-end offerings [5][6] - The company is actively expanding its market presence, particularly in the Gansu province and surrounding areas, with revenue from Gansu reaching 2.231 billion yuan, up 16.14% year-on-year [5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 693 million yuan, a significant increase of 31.11% year-on-year, although net profit slightly decreased by 2.05% [4][5] - The sales gross margin was recorded at 60.92%, a decrease of 1.52 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to a decline in the gross margin of other businesses [5][6] Product and Market Development - The company’s product lines, particularly those priced above 300 yuan, saw a revenue increase of 41.17%, indicating strong demand for premium products [5] - The company is focusing on market integration in Gansu and Qinghai, as well as expanding into the Shaanxi and Ningxia markets, which is expected to enhance market share [5] Future Projections - The company aims for a revenue target of 3.280 billion yuan and a net profit of 408 million yuan for 2025, representing growth rates of 8.90% and 5.15% respectively [6][7] - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to increase from 0.77 yuan in 2024 to 0.80 yuan in 2025, with a corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 25.45 for 2024 [7][8]
途虎-W(09690):2024年报点评:用户数高增,市场份额有望持续提升
Guohai Securities· 2025-03-25 09:13
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][10]. Core Insights - The company has shown significant growth in user numbers and market share, with a registered user base of nearly 140 million by the end of 2024, and a substantial increase in monthly active users and annual transaction users [5][7]. - The company reported a revenue of 14.76 billion RMB for 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 8.5%, and an adjusted net profit of 620 million RMB, up 29.7% year-on-year [5][8]. - The company continues to expand its store network, with a total of 6,874 service centers by the end of 2024, adding 965 new stores during the year [7][8]. - The management has demonstrated confidence in the company's future by repurchasing shares, acquiring 23,571,300 shares, which is 2.9% of the total issued share capital as of March 20, 2025 [7][8]. - The company is expected to maintain a positive growth trajectory, with projected revenues of 15.96 billion RMB, 17.62 billion RMB, and 19.32 billion RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting growth rates of 8.14%, 10.41%, and 9.63% [8][9]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 14.76 billion RMB and an adjusted net profit of 620 million RMB, with a gross margin of 25.4% [5][9]. - The projected financials for 2025E-2027E include revenues of 15.96 billion RMB, 17.62 billion RMB, and 19.32 billion RMB, with adjusted net profits of 765 million RMB, 1.075 billion RMB, and 1.35 billion RMB respectively [8][9]. User Growth and Market Position - The company has established itself as the leader in the Chinese automotive service market, with a registered user base of nearly 140 million and significant growth in active users [7][8]. - The company has effectively utilized platforms like Douyin to enhance user engagement, resulting in over 100% growth in new users for tire maintenance services [7]. Store Expansion and Marketing Investment - The company has expanded its store network to 6,874 locations, with a significant investment of nearly 100 million RMB in supporting both new and existing stores [7][8]. - Marketing expenses for online and offline promotions totaled 1.04 billion RMB in 2024, an increase of 250 million RMB from the previous year [7].
超长债性价比究竟如何
Guohai Securities· 2025-03-25 09:03
2025 年 03 月 25 日 债券研究周报 研究所: 证券分析师: 靳毅 S0350517100001 jiny01@ghzq.com.cn 证券分析师: 刘畅 S0350524090005 liuc06@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 超长债性价比究竟如何 债券研究周报 最近一年走势 超长债性价比究竟如何 超长债期限利差的中枢将如何变动?从近期经济基本面的表现来 看,地产销售数据出现边际好转,2 月制造业 PMI 重回荣枯线以上, 或表明基本面阶段性企稳。若后续经济数据持续向好,经济增速的 二阶导拐点确定,投资者的长期经济预期由弱转强,那么超长债期 限利差的中枢可能上移。 各机构需求将如何变化?受监管影响,农金社对超长债的需求或边 际弱化。保险的潜在需求不弱,但点位要求较高。股市情绪好转, 权益资金的需求量或也有所下降。 总结而言,超长债期限利差的中枢有上行的可能,同时今年主力参 与机构对超长债的需求可能边际下降,期限利差大幅向下偏离中枢 的可能性也有所降低。因此,今年超长端的赔率或相对一般,30Y-10Y 的期限利差不排除阶段性扩大到 25-30BP 的可能,胜率则更取决于 择时, ...
巨星农牧(603477):2024年报点评报告:成本持续优化,出栏高速增长
Guohai Securities· 2025-03-25 09:03
2025 年 03 月 25 日 公司研究 评级:买入(维持) 证券分析师: 程一胜 S0350521070001 [Table_Title] 成本持续优化,出栏高速增长 证券分析师: 王思言 S0350524010001 wangsy02@ghzq.com.cn ——巨星农牧(603477)2024 年报点评报告 最近一年走势 | 相对沪深 300 | 表现 | | 2025/03/24 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 巨星农牧 | 5.5% | 1.5% | -46.2% | | 沪深 300 | -0.9% | -1.2% | 11.0% | | 市场数据 | | | 2025/03/24 | | 当前价格(元) | | | 19.49 | | 周价格区间(元) 52 | | | 15.48-37.49 | | 总市值(百万) | | | 9,941.27 | | 流通市值(百万) | | | 9,941.27 | | 总股本(万股) | | | 51,007.03 | | 流通股本(万股) | | | 51,007.03 | | ...
哪些涨价细分领域可以重点关注
Guohai Securities· 2025-03-25 09:03
证券研究报告 2025年3月25日 哪些涨价细分领域可以重点关注 胡国鹏(分析师) 袁稻雨(分析师) S0350521080003 hugp@ghzq.com.cn S0350521080002 yuandy@ghzq.com.cn 1 最近一年走势 相关报告 -14% -7% 0% 7% 14% 21% 2024/03 2024/05 2024/07 2024/09 2024/11 2025/01 沪深300 《我国财政货币双宽松下,大类资产如何配置*陈艺鑫,胡国鹏》——2025- 03-09 《1990年以来典型温和通缩案例及启示*崔莹,胡国鹏》——2025-02-25 《策略周报:两轮科技周期行业如何轮动*胡国鹏,袁稻雨》——2025-02-23 《主观与量化的共振:六因子行业配置模型2.0*袁稻雨,胡国鹏》——2025- 02-19 《策略周报:两次科技大周期的对比和启示*胡国鹏,袁稻雨》——2025-02- 17 相对沪深300表现 | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪深300 | 1.2% | 1.2% | 10.9% | 请务必 ...
鹏鼎控股(002938):深度报告:AI端侧浪潮开启在即,PCB龙头显著受益
Guohai Securities· 2025-03-25 08:51
证券研究报告 2025年03月25日 元件 鹏鼎控股(002938.SZ)深度报告:AI端侧浪潮开启在即, PCB龙头显著受益 评级:买入(首次覆盖) 姚丹丹(证券分析师) 傅麒丞(证券分析师) 李晓康(联系人) S0350524060002 S0350524080001 S0350124080022 yaodd@ghzq.com.cn fuqc@ghzq.com.cn lixk02@ghzq.com.cn 最近一年走势 -21% 2% 25% 47% 70% 93% 2024/03/18 2024/06/16 2024/09/14 2024/12/13 2025/03/13 鹏鼎控股 沪深300 | 市场数据 | 2025/03/24 | | --- | --- | | 当前价格(元) | 37.05 | | 52周价格区间(元) | 20.91-44.66 | | 总市值(百万) | 85,902.68 | | 流通市值(百万) | 85,418.55 | | 总股本(万股) | 231,856.08 | | 流通股本(万股) | 230,549.40 | | 日均成交额(百万) | 492.81 | | ...
同程旅行(00780):2024Q4财报点评:核心OTA盈利持续改善,关注国际扩张表现
Guohai Securities· 2025-03-25 01:29
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][9]. Core Insights - The core online travel agency (OTA) platform shows strong growth momentum, with notable performance in international business. In Q4 2024, the core OTA achieved revenue of 3.46 billion yuan (up 20% year-on-year) and an operating profit margin of 28.4% (up 4.8 percentage points year-on-year) [5]. - The company reported a total revenue of 4.24 billion yuan in Q4 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 34.8%, and an adjusted net profit of 660 million yuan (up 36.8% year-on-year) [4][5]. - The company is focusing on vertical expansion in the vacation business, which contributed additional revenue, achieving 780 million yuan in Q4 2024 [5]. Financial Performance - For the fiscal year 2024, the company achieved a total transaction volume of 54.7 billion yuan (up 2.2% year-on-year) [4]. - The average monthly paying user count reached 41 million in Q4 2024, a year-on-year increase of 9.3%, with the total annual paying user count reaching 238 million (up 1.5% year-on-year) [5]. - The company’s revenue projections for 2025-2027 are adjusted to 19.5 billion, 22.8 billion, and 25.8 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding net profits of 2.56 billion, 3.08 billion, and 3.61 billion yuan [8]. Market Position - The company is positioned as a leading OTA platform in the lower-tier market, benefiting from the release of domestic travel demand, increased penetration in lower-tier markets, and the recovery of international business [8]. - The company’s market capitalization target for 2025 is set at 49.9 billion yuan, with a target price of 23 HKD per share [8].
国海证券晨会纪要-2025-03-25
Guohai Securities· 2025-03-25 01:04
2025 年 03 月 25 日 晨会纪要 研究所: 证券分析师: 余春生 S0350513090001 yucs@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 晨会纪要 ——2025 年第 48 期 观点精粹: 最新报告摘要 2024 年归母净利润同比+77%,"汽车+航空航天+机器人"业务壮大公司增长引擎--豪能股份/汽车零部件 (603809/212802) 公司动态研究 2024 年营销改革激发长期纯销活力看好主业当下业绩拐点,子公司体外培育牛黄长期稳健增长--健民集团/ 中药Ⅱ(600976/213702) 公司点评 本周北证 50 指数有所回调,下周交大铁发上会--北交所行业普通报告 利润增长超预期,坚持长期高质量投入--拼多多/海外(PDD/2180) 点评报告(港股美股) 归母净利润高增,产品矩阵持续丰富--腾景科技/光学光电子(688195/212703) 科创板公司动态研究 双季戊四醇、有机硅价格上涨,关注铬盐在军工领域的应用--行业周报 致力于拓宽产品系列,东南亚收入高速增长--伟仕佳杰/IT 服务Ⅱ(00856/217103) 点评报告(港股美股) 2024 年业绩稳健增长,单品 ...
牧原股份(002714):2024年报点评报告:业绩高增,养殖成本持续优化
Guohai Securities· 2025-03-20 12:02
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][10] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 137.95 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 24.43%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 17.88 billion yuan, marking a turnaround from loss to profit [4][6] - The company sold 71.60 million pigs in 2024, including 65.48 million market pigs, 5.66 million piglets, and 0.465 million breeding pigs [6] - The company has optimized its breeding costs, with the total cost of pig farming reduced to approximately 13 yuan/kg by the end of 2024, and the average annual cost around 14 yuan/kg [6] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 5.72 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 3.08 billion yuan, highlighting its investment value [6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 137.95 billion yuan and a net profit of 17.88 billion yuan, with significant growth in both metrics [4][6] - The company has a breeding capacity of approximately 81 million pigs per year and has established 10 slaughterhouses with a capacity of 29 million pigs per year [6] Cost Management - The company has seen continuous optimization in breeding costs, with production indicators improving, including a PSY (Pigs Sold per Sow per Year) above 29 and a survival rate close to 86% [6] - The average daily weight gain for fattening pigs is around 800 grams, and the feed-to-meat ratio is approximately 2.8 [6] Dividend Policy - The company announced a total dividend of 7.58 billion yuan for 2024, reflecting its strong financial performance and commitment to returning value to shareholders [6] Earnings Forecast - The company is expected to generate revenues of 129.60 billion yuan, 133.01 billion yuan, and 158.85 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits of 16.61 billion yuan, 16.36 billion yuan, and 27.65 billion yuan for the same years [8][10]
思摩尔国际(06969):2024年报点评报告:雾化业务迎来改善转折点,看好HNB业务后续弹性
Guohai Securities· 2025-03-20 12:02
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][10]. Core Views - The report highlights a turning point in the company's atomization business and expresses optimism about the future of its HNB (Heated Not Burned) business [1]. - The company reported a total revenue of 11.8 billion RMB for 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 5.3%. However, net profit decreased by 20.8% to 1.3 billion RMB, with a net profit margin of 11.0% [4][6]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company's revenue was 11.8 billion RMB, with a gross margin of 37.4%, down 1.3 percentage points from the previous year. The net profit was 1.3 billion RMB, reflecting a decrease of 20.8% year-on-year [4][6][7]. - The company declared a final dividend of 0.05 HKD per share as of December 31, 2024 [4]. Revenue Breakdown - The self-owned brand business saw significant growth, with revenue reaching 2.48 billion RMB, up 34.0% year-on-year. Notably, revenue from Europe and other regions for electronic atomization products was 2.02 billion RMB, up 37.2% [6]. - Revenue from enterprise client business was 9.32 billion RMB, slightly down by 0.3%. The report anticipates that increased regulatory enforcement in the U.S. will enhance market share for compliant products [6]. Research and Development - The company maintained a high R&D expenditure, amounting to 1.57 billion RMB, which is 13.3% of total revenue. This includes 1.03 billion RMB for electronic nicotine delivery systems [6][7]. - Sales and distribution expenses rose significantly by 74.7% to 920 million RMB, attributed to increased marketing efforts for self-owned brands globally [6]. Future Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 13.13 billion RMB in 2025, 15.27 billion RMB in 2026, and 17.54 billion RMB in 2027, with growth rates of 11%, 16%, and 15% respectively [9][10]. - Expected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.63 billion RMB, 2.15 billion RMB, and 2.64 billion RMB, with growth rates of 25%, 32%, and 23% respectively [9][10].