Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights strong performance in revenue growth and substantial shareholder returns, recommending active investment in the company [2] - The company achieved a revenue of 284.42 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 10.1%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 10.17 billion yuan, up 23.5% year-on-year [4][10] - The report emphasizes the dual drivers of express logistics and supply chain/international operations, leading to double-digit revenue growth in 2024 [6] Performance Summary - In 2024, the company completed 13.26 billion parcels, a year-on-year increase of 15.5%, with an average price per parcel of 15.5 yuan, down 6.2% [5] - The company’s revenue from express logistics was 205.78 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.7% [6] - The net profit margin improved from 3.2% to 3.6% year-on-year, driven by cost reduction and efficiency improvements [7][10] Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 319.06 billion yuan, 354.32 billion yuan, and 390.61 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with growth rates of 12%, 11%, and 10% [10][12] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 11.62 billion yuan, 13.23 billion yuan, and 15.14 billion yuan for the same years, with a consistent growth rate of 14% [10][12] Shareholder Returns - The company’s capital expenditure decreased by 27% to 9.9 billion yuan in 2024, with free cash flow increasing by 70% to 22.3 billion yuan, supporting dividends and share buybacks [10] - The total cash dividend as a percentage of net profit has increased from 20% in 2022 to 40% in 2024, indicating a strong commitment to shareholder returns [10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][10]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the company has achieved significant revenue growth and profit improvement, driven by its strong brand and market position in the local delivery sector [7][8]. - The company reported a revenue of 15.746 billion RMB for 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 27%, and a net profit of 132 million RMB, which is a 161.8% increase year-on-year [4][10]. - The report anticipates continued growth in revenue and profit for the years 2025 to 2027, with projected revenues of 19.613 billion RMB, 23.502 billion RMB, and 27.502 billion RMB, reflecting growth rates of 25%, 20%, and 17% respectively [10]. Summary by Sections Recent Performance - In the second half of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 8.868 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 33.6%, and a net profit of 70 million RMB, up 233.3% year-on-year [4][5]. Business Segments - The company's To B (business-to-business) segment saw a revenue increase of 36% in H2 2024, driven by new key account orders and a 39% increase in active merchants [5]. - The To C (business-to-consumer) segment experienced a slower growth rate of 6% in H2 2024 compared to 20% in H1 2024 [5]. Profitability and Cost Management - The overall gross margin for 2024 was 6.8%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to improved scale network effects [6]. - The adjusted net profit margin for the year was 0.9%, reflecting a 0.5 percentage point increase year-on-year [6]. Future Projections - The report projects a significant increase in net profit for the years 2025 to 2027, with expected figures of 208 million RMB, 320 million RMB, and 449 million RMB, corresponding to growth rates of 57%, 54%, and 40% respectively [10]. - The report emphasizes the potential for continued growth driven by the company's strong market position and operational efficiencies [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the chemical industry [1][29]. Core Insights - The chemical industry is expected to enter a replenishment cycle in 2025, driven by inventory depletion, profit bottoming out, and institutional holdings reaching a low point [4][29]. - The supply-demand tension in phosphate rock is anticipated to continue, with a potential revaluation of its value [5][29]. - The report emphasizes the expansion of phosphate mining capacity by Batian Co., which is expected to enhance its competitive edge due to rising prices of phosphate fertilizers and sulfur [3][5]. Summary by Sections Recent Trends - The basic chemical industry has shown a performance increase of 8.4% over the past 12 months, outperforming the CSI 300 index, which decreased by 11.2% [1]. Key Opportunities - The report identifies four major opportunities in the chemical sector: 1. Low-cost expansion, focusing on companies like Wanhua Chemical and various tire manufacturers [6]. 2. Improved industry conditions in phosphate rock and related sectors [6]. 3. New materials with high growth potential and low domestic production rates [7]. 4. High dividend opportunities in state-owned enterprises with stable ROE [7]. Company Focus - Batian Co. is highlighted for its phosphate mining capacity expansion, increasing from 900,000 tons/year to 2 million tons/year, with additional projects planned [3]. - The report also tracks the performance of various companies, including their earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios, indicating a generally positive outlook for key players in the industry [31]. Market Observations - The report notes that the chemical industry is experiencing a significant price increase in key products such as bromine, hexafluoropropylene, and urea, driven by supply constraints and rising demand [9][10]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a focus on leading companies within the chemical sector, particularly those with strong cost advantages and expanding capacities [29].

研究所： 证券分析师： 邱迪 S0350522010002 qiud@ghzq.com.cn 证券分析师： 李航 S0350521120006 lih11@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 铸件产能加速释放，一季度业绩预计同比高增 ——金雷股份（300443）2024 年报&2025 年一 季度业绩预告点评 最近一年走势 | 相对沪深 | 300 | 表现 | | 2025/03/28 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 金雷股份 | | -0.7% | 3.6% | 4.0% | | 沪深 300 | | 0.6% | -1.7% | 11.2% | 2025 年 03 月 31 日 公司研究 评级：买入(首次覆盖) | 市场数据 | 2025/03/28 | | --- | --- | | 当前价格（元） | 21.31 | | 周价格区间（元） 52 | 13.51-27.41 | | 总市值（百万） | 6,822.07 | | 流通市值（百万） | 5,173.51 | | 总股本（万股） | 3 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) as of March 28, 2025 [4][8]. Core Views - The report highlights that despite a decline in coal prices, the optimization of coal chemical profitability and an increase in coal production volume will stabilize future performance [5][8]. - The company reported a revenue of 139.12 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 7.29%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 14.43 billion yuan, down 28.39% year-on-year [4][5]. Summary by Sections Recent Performance - The company's coal production reached 142.49 million tons in 2024, an increase of 7.9% year-on-year, while sales volume was 136.31 million tons, up 7.3% year-on-year [5]. - The average selling price of coal decreased to 672 yuan per ton, down 16.3% year-on-year [5]. Financial Metrics - The company achieved a weighted average ROE of 18.30%, a decline of 3.58 percentage points year-on-year [4]. - The projected revenue for 2025 is 127.51 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 8% [7]. Dividend Policy - The company plans to distribute a total cash dividend of 0.77 yuan per share for 2024, resulting in a dividend payout ratio of 53.59% and a dividend yield of 5.7% [8]. Future Outlook - The company has a rich reserve of projects, with the Wanfeng Coal Mine expected to commence production by the end of 2024 and the Wucaiwan No. 4 Coal Mine planned for 2025 [5]. - The company aims to achieve a coal production scale of 300 million tons per year within the next 5-10 years, supported by ongoing project developments [5].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [2][8]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 28.262 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.09%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 11.513 billion yuan, up 5.6% year-on-year, with an acceleration in growth compared to the previous quarters [5][8]. - The asset scale of the company expanded steadily, with total assets reaching 15,149.42 billion yuan, a 5.1% increase from the previous year. Customer deposits totaled 9,419.46 billion yuan, also up 5.1% year-on-year [5][8]. - Non-interest income showed significant growth, amounting to 5.767 billion yuan, a substantial increase of 29.23% year-on-year, contributing to 20.41% of total revenue, up 4.44 percentage points from the previous year [5][8]. Summary by Sections Recent Performance - The company outperformed the CSI 300 index with a 12-month return of 41.6%, compared to the index's 11.2% [4]. - The stock price as of March 28, 2025, was 6.02 yuan, with a 52-week price range of 4.43-6.20 yuan [4]. Financial Highlights - The company reported a net interest margin of 1.61%, down 12 basis points year-on-year, but stable quarter-on-quarter [5]. - The non-performing loan ratio stood at 1.18% at the end of 2024, with a provision coverage ratio of 363.44%, indicating stable asset quality [5]. Future Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are 28.671 billion yuan, 29.917 billion yuan, and 31.205 billion yuan, with growth rates of 1.45%, 4.34%, and 4.31% respectively. Net profit projections are 11.846 billion yuan, 12.311 billion yuan, and 12.771 billion yuan, with growth rates of 2.89%, 3.92%, and 3.74% respectively [7][8].

Group 1: Key Insights from Reports - The report highlights that overseas growth remains strong, driven by both IP and product categories, with Pop Mart achieving a revenue of 13.04 billion RMB in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 106.9% [4][5] - The adjusted net profit for Pop Mart reached 3.4 billion RMB in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 185.9% [5][6] - The company plans to distribute a final dividend of 0.8146 RMB per share, totaling 1.094 billion RMB, which represents 35% of the net profit [6] Group 2: Company Performance and Growth - Xingtong Co. reported a revenue of 1.515 billion RMB in 2024, up 22% year-on-year, with a net profit of 350 million RMB, marking a 39% increase [12][13] - China Foreign Transport achieved a revenue of 105.621 billion RMB in 2024, a 3.9% increase, although net profit decreased by 7.2% to 3.918 billion RMB [16][17] - The company’s logistics and agency business volumes grew steadily, with contract logistics volume increasing by 4% and sea freight agency volume by 13% [17][18] Group 3: Industry Trends and Developments - The distributed energy storage demand is accelerating, with a focus on sodium battery solutions and new product iterations [21][24] - The report indicates that the global industrial storage market is entering a new growth phase, driven by economic viability and increasing backup power demands [24] - The wind power sector is experiencing a surge in component production, with significant increases in offshore wind projects expected in 2025 [25][26] Group 4: Investment Outlook - The report maintains a "buy" rating for Pop Mart, projecting revenues of 21.749 billion RMB, 30.671 billion RMB, and 38.205 billion RMB for 2025-2027, with adjusted net profits of 5.516 billion RMB, 8.026 billion RMB, and 9.974 billion RMB respectively [11] - Xingtong Co. is also rated as a "buy," with projected revenues of 1.943 billion RMB, 2.495 billion RMB, and 2.991 billion RMB for 2025-2027, alongside net profits of 417 million RMB, 494 million RMB, and 576 million RMB [15] - China Foreign Transport is expected to see revenues of 113.848 billion RMB, 118.386 billion RMB, and 122.636 billion RMB for 2025-2027, with net profits of 4.154 billion RMB, 4.300 billion RMB, and 4.429 billion RMB [20]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the coal mining industry [1] Core Views - The coal mining industry is characterized by high profitability, strong cash flow, high barriers to entry, high dividends, and high safety margins, suggesting a valuable investment opportunity in the sector [7][77] - The supply constraints in the coal mining industry remain unchanged, while demand may experience fluctuations, leading to price volatility and dynamic rebalancing [77] Summary by Sections Thermal Coal - Port inventory has decreased, and the decline in port prices has narrowed, indicating a stable supply from major production areas [13][75] - The average daily shipment volume on the Daqin line has decreased by 24,100 tons week-on-week, while the daily number of cars dispatched by the Hohhot Railway Bureau has increased by 4 [13][75] - The daily consumption of coastal and inland power plants has decreased by 76,000 tons and 141,000 tons respectively, with inventory changes reflecting a decrease of 92,000 tons and an increase of 1,960,000 tons [13][75] - The port price decline is expected to stabilize, with coal prices likely to show narrow fluctuations in the short term [13][75] Coking Coal - Production has slightly contracted, with the capacity utilization rate of sample coal mines decreasing by 0.21 percentage points to 88.2% [3][76] - The average customs clearance volume at Ganqimaodu Port has increased by 53 cars week-on-week, indicating improved import activity [3][76] - The overall supply-demand situation is improving, with coking coal production enterprises continuing to reduce inventory [3][76] Coke - After eleven rounds of price declines, coke prices are stabilizing, supported by raw material coal prices [53][76] - The average daily iron and steel production has increased for five consecutive weeks, leading to a positive outlook for coke demand [53][76] - The capacity utilization rate of coking enterprises has increased by 0.12 percentage points to 74.82% [53][76] Key Companies and Profit Forecasts - Key companies to focus on include China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and Yancoal, all of which are expected to maintain strong performance and high dividends [8][77] - The report highlights the investment value of companies with high cash flow and stable earnings, such as China Shenhua, which has a cash dividend of 44.903 billion yuan and a dividend yield of 6% [4][77]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][10]. Core Insights - The company's revenue for 2024 decreased by 0.48% year-on-year, but the decline narrowed quarter by quarter, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 1.22% year-on-year. Both total assets and customer deposits grew at a rate exceeding 10% [7][10]. - The company continues its tradition of high dividends, proposing a cash dividend of 2 yuan per share (before tax), with a payout ratio of 35.32% [7][11]. - Retail business showed continued growth despite a high base, with retail customer AUM increasing by 12.05% year-on-year [7][8]. - The company reported a stable asset quality, with a non-performing loan ratio of 0.95% and a provision coverage ratio of 411.98% as of the end of 2024 [7][10]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company's revenue increased by 7.53% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders rose by 7.63% year-on-year, indicating strong quarterly performance [7][10]. - Non-interest income grew by 1.41% year-on-year, offsetting a 1.58% decline in net interest income [7][10]. Asset and Deposit Growth - As of the end of 2024, total assets exceeded 12.15 trillion yuan, growing by 10.19% year-on-year, while total customer deposits reached 9.10 trillion yuan, up by 11.54% year-on-year [7][10]. - The total loan amount was 6.88 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.83%, particularly in technology, green, and inclusive loans [7][10]. Profitability Forecast - The company forecasts revenues of 344.3 billion yuan, 364.8 billion yuan, and 388.8 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 2.06%, 5.91%, and 6.58% [9][10]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 153.3 billion yuan, 165.5 billion yuan, and 177.9 billion yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 3.30%, 7.94%, and 7.54% [9][10]. Valuation Metrics - The company’s P/E ratios are projected to be 7.10, 6.57, and 6.10 for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, while the P/B ratios are expected to be 0.93, 0.85, and 0.78 [9][10].

2025 年 03 月 30 日 公司研究 评级：买入(维持) ——通达创智（001368）2024 年年报点评 最近一年走势 | 300 表现 | | 2025/03/28 | 相对沪深 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1M | 3M | 12M | 表现 | | 10.1% | 17.2% | 13.3% | 通达创智 | | 0.6% | -1.7% | 11.2% | 沪深 300 | | | | 2025/03/28 | 市场数据 | | | | 22.75 | 当前价格（元） | | 周价格区间（元） | | 16.22-25.30 | 52 | | | | 2,597.47 | 总市值（百万） | | 流通市值（百万） | | 721.07 | | | | | 11,417.46 | 总股本（万股） | | 总市值（百万） | 2,597.47 | | --- | --- | | 流通市值（百万） | 721.07 | | 总股本（万股） | 11,417.46 | | 流通股本（万股） | 3,169.55 | | 日均成交额（百万） | 48.83 | | 近一月 ...