研究员：吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 联系方式：15000295386 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 1 月 16 日星期五 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 周四夜盘主力合约 2605 期货价格下跌 39 元至 2245 元/吨，华东主流地区甲醇现货 价格下跌 17 元至 2240 元/吨。持仓方面，多头持仓减少 6557 手至 44.3 万手，空头 持仓增加 14197 手至 61.3 万手。 【重要资讯】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 能源与化 | | 震荡偏 | 1、供应方面，国内甲醇开工率 91.1%，环比-0.3%。海外甲醇开工率 59.4%，环比+1.8%。 2、库存方面，中国甲醇港口库存总量在 144.03 万吨，较上一期数据减少 9.69 吨。 其中，华东地区去库，库存减少 8.44 万吨；华南地区去库，库存减少 1.25 万吨。 中国甲醇样本生产企业库存 45.09 万吨，较上期微增 0.32 万吨，环比增 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the energy and chemical industry (pure benzene) is "oscillating bearish" [1] Report's Core View - The Middle - East geopolitical situation has eased, and crude oil prices have dropped significantly. This week, the pure benzene inventory at Jiangsu ports continued to increase, while the downstream demand side's operating rates have improved. In the short - term, the pure benzene price will fluctuate widely, with the reference range for the 03 contract being 5460 - 5750 yuan/ton. Follow - up attention should be paid to the port arrival volume and future US - dollar - denominated pure benzene market transaction prices. It is recommended to close out long positions at a profit [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Thursday night, the price of the main futures contract BZ2603 dropped by 57 yuan to 5620 yuan/ton. The spot price in the mainstream East China region was 5535 yuan/ton (down 40 yuan month - on - month), and the spot price in Shandong was 5462 yuan/ton (down 3 yuan month - on - month). In terms of positions, the number of long positions increased by 209 to 20,700, and the number of short positions increased by 130 to 26,400 [1] Important Information - Supply: In December, the domestic pure benzene production was 1.934 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.3%. In November, the pure benzene import volume was 459,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.4%. According to customs statistics, in November 2025, China's monthly pure benzene import volume was 459,624.998 tons, the cumulative import volume was 5,071,144.069 tons, the monthly import value was 323.069632 million US dollars, and the monthly average import price was 702.90 US dollars/ton. The import volume decreased by 7.48% month - on - month, increased by 5.93% year - on - year, and the cumulative import volume increased by 33.61% compared with the same period last year [1] - Inventory: The total commercial inventory of the pure benzene port samples in Jiangsu was 324,000 tons, an increase of 6,000 tons from the previous inventory of 318,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.89%; compared with the inventory of 174,300 tons in the same period last year, the inventory increased by 149,700 tons, a year - on - year increase of 85.89%. From January 5th to January 11th, the incompletely - counted arrival volume was about 36,000 tons, and the pick - up volume was about 30,000 tons [1] - Demand: The operating rate of styrene was 70.8%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.06%; the operating rate of phenol was 89%, a month - on - month increase of 4%; the operating rate of caprolactam was 77.2%, a month - on - month increase of 2.9%; the operating rate of aniline was 73.2%, a month - on - month increase of 11.9%; the operating rate of adipic acid was 65.3%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.3%. Caprolactam plants have started self - disciplined production cuts, and there is an expected reduction in monthly pure benzene demand from December to January. The second line of Guangxi Hengyi's caprolactam has been put into production [1] - International Oil Prices: The situation in Iran has shown signs of temporary easing, and the market expects the crude oil supply from Venezuela to increase in the future, leading to a decline in international oil prices. The NYMEX crude oil futures 02 contract dropped by 2.83 US dollars/barrel to 59.19 US dollars/barrel, a month - on - month decrease of 4.56%; the ICE Brent crude oil futures 03 contract dropped by 2.76 US dollars/barrel to 63.76 US dollars/barrel, a month - on - month decrease of 4.15%. The price of China's INE crude oil futures 2603 contract rose by 2.7 to 452.4 yuan/barrel, and then dropped by 10.6 to 441.8 yuan/barrel at night [1] Market Logic - The Middle - East geopolitical situation has eased, and crude oil prices have dropped significantly. This week, the pure benzene inventory at Jiangsu ports continued to increase, while the downstream demand side's operating rates have improved. In the short - term, the pure benzene price will fluctuate widely, with the reference range for the 03 contract being 5460 - 5750 yuan/ton. Follow - up attention should be paid to the port arrival volume and future US - dollar - denominated pure benzene market transaction prices [1] Trading Strategy - Close out long positions at a profit [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment rating for the sugar sector in the agricultural, forestry, and livestock industry is "volatile" [1]. - The investment rating for the rubber - related sector in the energy and chemical industry is "volatile" for natural rubber, 20 - numbered rubber, and synthetic rubber [5]. Report's Core View - For the sugar market, both the international and domestic sugar markets are expected to be volatile. The international sugar market lacks new information and is mainly focused on the northern hemisphere's production. The domestic sugar market has limited trading information, and the price may be range - bound without new driving forces [1]. - For the rubber market, the natural rubber market has a mixed fundamental situation with strong overseas raw material prices but increasing domestic inventory. The synthetic rubber market is expected to be strongly volatile, affected by the strong upstream but sufficient domestic spot supply [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Sugar in the Agricultural, Forestry, and Livestock Industry Market Review - On the previous day, the closing price of SR605 contract was 5280 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.36%, and the night - session closing price was 5275 yuan/ton. The closing price of SR609 contract was 5291 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.25%, and the night - session closing price was 5289 yuan/ton [1]. Important Information - The spot price of white sugar in Guangxi was 5314 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton. The price range of Guangxi sugar - making groups was 5320 - 5380 yuan/ton, with some prices down 10 yuan/ton. The price range of Yunnan sugar - making groups was 5190 - 5230 yuan/ton, with some prices down 10 yuan/ton. The mainstream price range of processing sugar factories was 5750 - 5900 yuan/ton, with no change [1]. - As of the first half of December in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season, the cumulative cane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil was 59818.6 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1448.9 million tons (2.36%). The ATR of sugarcane was 138.38 kg/ton, a decrease of 3.14 kg/ton compared to the same period last year. The cumulative sugar - making ratio was 50.91%, an increase of 2.72% compared to the same period last year. The cumulative ethanol production was 30.275 billion liters, a year - on - year decrease of 1.717 billion liters (5.37%). The cumulative sugar production was 4015.8 million tons, an increase of 34.3 million tons (0.86%) compared to the same period last year [1]. - As of the week ending January 6, the total open interest of ICE raw sugar futures + options was 1101827 lots, an increase of 23287 lots compared to the previous week. The speculative long - position was 153060 lots, a decrease of 6484 lots compared to the previous week. The speculative short - position was 328010 lots, an increase of 3915 lots compared to the previous week. The speculative net short - position was 174950 lots, an increase of 10399 lots compared to the previous week [1]. - The number of white sugar warrants on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange on the previous day was 14126, a daily increase of 4387 [1]. Market Logic - The international sugar market has limited new information, mainly focusing on the northern hemisphere's production. The far - month supply pressure still exists, and the price may be volatile [1]. - The domestic sugar market has limited trading information. Technically, it is necessary to pay attention to whether the pressure at the 5300 integer mark can be maintained. Without new driving forces, it is difficult to have a continuous unilateral trend, and it may be range - bound in the near future [1]. Trading Strategy - Hold the long - term short position of SR605 contract and pay attention to the performance of the 5300 - 5315 pressure range. Those who have not entered the market can try short positions against the upper - pressure range. For options, consider the double - selling strategy [1]. Rubber in the Energy and Chemical Industry Market Review - As of January 15, the closing price of RU2605 contract was 15995 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 1.02%. The closing price of NR2603 contract was 12850 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 1.27%. The closing price of BR2603 contract was 12190 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.49% [5]. Important Information - The price of Thai RSS3 was 60.88 Thai baht/kg, an increase of 0.23. The price of field latex was 58.2 Thai baht/kg, an increase of 0.20 Thai baht/kg. The price of cup lump was 52.3 Thai baht/kg, a decrease of 0.50 Thai baht/kg. The price of Malaysian rubber was 702 sen/kg, an increase of 9.5 sen/kg [5]. - As of January 11, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 56.82 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.98 million tons (3.62%). The bonded - area inventory was 9.35 million tons, an increase of 6.14%. The general - trade inventory was 47.47 million tons, an increase of 3.13%. The inbound rate of bonded warehouses in Qingdao decreased by 1.64 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.97 percentage points. The inbound rate of general - trade warehouses decreased by 0.33 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 0.33 percentage points [5]. - The capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises this week was 72.53%, a month - on - month increase of 8.75 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 5.03 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of China's full - steel tire sample enterprises was 63.02%, a month - on - month increase of 7.52 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 5.21 percentage points [5]. - The weekly average price of Shanghai full - latex this week was 15750 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan (0.16%). The weekly average price of 20 - standard Thai rubber in the Qingdao market was 1919 US dollars/ton, an increase of 5 US dollars (0.27%). The weekly average price of 20 - mixed Thai rubber in the Qingdao market was 15076 yuan/ton, an increase of 56 yuan (0.37%) [5]. - As of January 15, 2026, the weekly capacity utilization rate of China's high - cis polybutadiene rubber industry was 79.68%, a month - on - month increase of 0.53 percentage points [5]. - The delivery price of butadiene in the central region of Shandong was 9850 - 9900 yuan/ton, and the ex - tank self - pick - up price in Jiangsu was 9400 - 9500 yuan/ton [5]. - The ex - factory price of Sinopec's BR9000 was 12100 yuan/ton, and the ex - factory price of PetroChina's BR9000 was 12100 - 12300 yuan/ton [5]. Market Logic - Natural rubber: The daily line of natural rubber closed down. Technically, the price is in a consolidation state, and attention should be paid to the pressure and support at the upper and lower limits of the range. Overseas raw material prices are strong, but the inventory in Qingdao is increasing. The short - term fundamental situation is mixed, and the overall change is limited. Recently, attention should be paid to the impact of macro - funds on the price [5]. - Synthetic rubber: The price of upstream butadiene is still strong, and the export deal rumor of domestic butadiene resources boosts the bullish sentiment. However, the current spot supply of polybutadiene rubber is sufficient. Except for the shutdown of the plants of Maoming Petrochemical and Dushanzi Petrochemical, the operating load of other polybutadiene rubber plants is at a high level. Technically, the BR futures price is still in an upward channel, and attention should be paid to the resistance near the previous high. Recently, pay attention to the impact of the overseas situation on the energy and chemical sector, and the price is expected to be strongly volatile [5]. Trading Strategy - The active RU contract should pay attention to the range of 15750 - 16400 yuan/ton; the NR contract should pay attention to the range of 12700 - 13300 yuan/ton; the BR contract should pay attention to the range of 12100 - 12600 yuan/ton. Adopt a short - term low - buying strategy [5].

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 1 月 16 日星期五 研究员：吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【行情复盘】 | 周四夜盘瓶片主力价格下跌 | 142 | 元至 | 5952 | 元/吨。华东水瓶级瓶片价格 | 6060 | 元/吨 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | （-90），华南瓶片价格 | 6110 | 元/吨（-110）。持仓方面，多头持仓减少 | 2475 | 手至 | 6.21 | 万手，空头持仓减少 | 2679 | ...

Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - Corn: Interval [1] - Pig: Interval [3] - Egg: On - look [3] Group 2: Core Views - For the corn market, in the medium term, it is a multi - empty intertwined situation. In the long term, it maintains the pricing logic of substitution + planting cost. For the pig market, in the short - term, it is driven by supply - demand growth; in the medium - term, supply pressure varies by month; in the long - term, supply pressure is related to sow inventory. For the egg market, in the short - term, there is a short - term upward expectation but a supply - demand pressure in February; in the medium - term, egg supply pressure is not fully released; in the long - term, the price bottom cycle may be extended [1][3] Group 3: Summary by Variety Corn - **Market Performance**: The night session of the corn futures oscillated and consolidated on the previous day, and the main contract 2603 rose 0.44% to 2,294 yuan/ton [1] - **Important Information**: Deep - processing enterprise purchase prices in the Northeast and North China increased slightly; port prices were stable; the number of corn futures warehouse receipts increased by 5,655 to 44,417 lots; the transaction rates of corn sales, purchase, and two - way trading by CGS were 72%, 55%, and 82% respectively [1] - **Market Logic**: In the medium term, the market is multi - empty intertwined, and in the long term, it is based on substitution + planting cost pricing [1] - **Trading Strategy**: Maintain a wide - range interval trading idea. For the 2603 contract, the pressure is at 2,300, and the short - term support is at 2,270 - 2,280; for the 2605 contract, the pressure is at 2,290, and the short - term support is at 2,270 - 2,275 [1] Pig - **Market Performance**: The pig futures rose first and then fell on the previous day, and the main 2603 contract rose 0.42% to 11,950 yuan/ton [1] - **Important Information**: The national average pig price decreased slightly; sow inventory fell below 40 million heads in October 2025; the number of newborn piglets decreased in October and November 2025; the average slaughter weight of pigs increased; the price difference between fat and standard pigs was flat; the number of pig futures warehouse receipts was unchanged at 855 lots [1][3] - **Market Logic**: In the short - term, supply - demand growth creates a pressure - support situation; in the medium - term, supply pressure varies by month; in the long - term, supply pressure is related to sow inventory [3] - **Trading Strategy**: Maintain an interval trading idea. For different contracts, different pressure and support levels are provided [3] Egg - **Market Performance**: The near - month contracts of egg futures rose significantly on the previous day, and the main 2603 contract rose 2.23% to 3,066 yuan/500KG [3] - **Important Information**: The national egg price continued to rise; inventory was stable with a slight decrease; the price of culled chickens increased; the estimated number of laying hens in January was 13.34 billion; the number of egg futures warehouse receipts was 0 lots [3] - **Market Logic**: In the short - term, there is an upward expectation, but there is a supply - demand pressure in February; in the medium - term, egg supply pressure is not fully released; in the long - term, the price bottom cycle may be extended [3] - **Trading Strategy**: Pay attention to the short - selling opportunities in the near - month contracts after a rise. Focus on the first - quarter culling and molting of chickens [3]

更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 01 月 16 日星期五 研究员： 王子健 从业资格：F03087965 交易咨询资格：Z0019551 联系方式：17803978037 Morning session notice 早盘提示 Morning session notice | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | ICE3 月合约结算价 64.71 跌 28 点，5 月 66.27 跌 23 点，7 月 67.69 跌 22 点；成 交约 4.5 万手。 | | | | | 郑棉总成交 437374 持仓 1212127。结算价 1 月 14780，5 月 14720，9 月 14840。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、11 月孟加拉棉花进口约 12.1 万吨，环比（11.0 万吨）增加 9.6%，同比（11.6 | | | | | 万吨）增加 4.8%。从当月进口来源来看，巴西棉进口量占首位，占总进口量的 | | ...

2026 年 1 月 16 日星期五 研究员：纪晓云 从业资格：F3066027 交易咨询资格：Z0011402 联系方式：010-56711796 Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 昨日日盘锰硅主力合约 SM2603 收于 5870，环比日盘开盘下跌 0.84%；硅铁主力合约 SF2603 收于 5610，环比日盘开盘下跌 1.41%。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、央行打出"组合拳"支持经济高质量发展。其中包括：下调再贷款、再贴现利率 0.25 | | | | | 个百分点；合并使用支农支小再贷款与再贴现额度，增加支农支小再贷款额度 5000 亿 | | | | | 元，总额度中单设 1 万亿元民营企业再贷款；拓展碳减排支持工具支持领域；将商业用 | | | | | 房购房贷款最低首付比例下调至 30%。央行表示，今年降准降息还有一 ...

Morning session notice 联系方式：010-56711796 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 昨日焦煤主力合约 Jm2605 收于 1187.5，环比日盘开盘下跌 0.75%；焦炭主力合约 J2605 收于 1745.0，环比日盘开盘上涨 0.37%。昨日夜盘，焦煤主力合约 Jm2605 收于 1180.0， 环比日盘收盘下跌 0.63%。焦炭主力合约 J2605 收于 1735.0，环比日盘收盘下跌 0.57%。 【重要资讯】 1、央行打出"组合拳"支持经济高质量发展。其中包括：下调再贷款、再贴现利率 0.25 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黑色 | 焦煤、 | | 个百分点；合并使用支农支小再贷款与再贴现额度，增加支农支小再贷款额度 5000 亿 元，总额度中单设 1 万亿元民营企业再贷款；拓展碳减排支持工具支持领域；将商业用 房购房贷款最低首付比例下调至 30%。央行表示，今年降准降息还有一定空间。 2、本周，Mysteel 统计 523 家炼焦煤矿山样本核定产能利用率为 88.5%，环比增 3.1%。 原煤日均产量 197 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The macro and financial sector of the global economy is rated as "downward" [1] Core Viewpoints - The global political order has entered a dark period of the law of the jungle, causing huge uncertainties to the global economy. The global economy has passed the peak and started to decline [2][4] - The Fed's uncertainty is expected to peak from July to November 2026, and the market may see a trend of "fleeing US assets" [2] - The construction boom of AI data centers in the next five years will require at least $5 trillion [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Global Economic Logic - The US has taken actions such as attempting to control Venezuelan oil and purchasing Greenland, which has disrupted the global political order [2] - The US prosecutor has launched a criminal investigation into Fed Chairman Powell, and the Fed has restarted the expansion of its balance - sheet [2] - Goldman Sachs warns that the decline in Las Vegas gambling revenue is similar to the early warning signal before the 2008 financial crisis [2] - The US is adjusting its economic relationship with China and aiming to revive its economic autonomy [2] - The K - shaped differentiation of consumers in the US is intensifying [2] - The Bank of Japan has raised interest rates, and the yield of Japanese 10 - year treasury bonds has risen [2] - Google plans to double its AI computing power every six months and increase it by 1000 times in the next 4 - 5 years [2] - NVIDIA's CEO believes that China will win the AI competition [2] Morning Session Notice - Trump has launched fiscal, monetary, and credit stimulus, but it may lead to future debt crises and market crashes [1] - Citigroup's report indicates that the commodity market is at a turning point, with different price outlooks for various commodities [1] - US retail sales in November exceeded expectations, and the PPI rebounded [1] - The cost gap between building space data centers and ground data centers is narrowing [1] - The demand for global AI chips is constrained by TSMC's production capacity [1] - NVIDIA's new architecture is expected to increase the demand for NAND flash memory [1] - OpenAI has signed a deal with Cerebras worth over $1 billion [1] Other - The US's return to the Monroe Doctrine will have a profound impact on major asset classes [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - For the vegetable oil sector, the US biofuel policy boosts global vegetable oil prices, but currently, it's hard to form a trending direction. In the medium - to - long - term, it's advisable to adopt a long - position mindset of buying on dips for soybean and palm oil, and hold short - term long positions for rapeseed oil, paying attention to its rebound strength[2]. - For the two - meal (soybean meal and rapeseed meal) sector, the 05 contracts are expected to oscillate at the bottom in the medium - term with intraday trading, and short positions can be gradually arranged for the 09 contracts[4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Agricultural, Livestock, and Edible Oil Sector 3.1.1 Market Review - On January 15th, under the double negative factors of Malaysia lowering the export tariff of crude palm oil in February and the easing of the Iranian crisis with a drop in international crude oil prices, palm oil led the decline in the vegetable oil sector. The main soybean oil contract Y2605 closed at 7,938 yuan/ton, down 0.77% day - on - day in terms of closing price, with a daily reduction of 3,882 lots. The main palm oil contract P2605 closed at 8,578 yuan/ton, down 1.94% day - on - day, with a daily reduction of 8,279 lots. The main rapeseed oil contract OI2605 closed at 8,828 yuan/ton, down 1.35% day - on - day, with a daily increase of 12,208 lots[1]. 3.1.2 Important News - On January 15th, NYMEX crude oil futures fell sharply, ending a five - day rally, with the 2 - month crude oil futures contract down 2.83 dollars or 4.6%, settling at 59.19 dollars per barrel[1]. - Discussions on canola seeds between Beijing and Canada have achieved results, and negotiations are still ongoing[1]. - The Trump administration is expected to finalize the 2026 biofuel blending ratio quota in early March, basically following the initial proposal, and abandoning a plan to penalize imports of renewable fuels and raw materials. The US EPA is considering setting the 2026 biodiesel usage between 5.2 billion and 5.6 billion gallons, close to the initially proposed 5.61 billion gallons[1]. - Indonesia has cancelled the plan to increase the mandatory biodiesel blending ratio to 50% (B50) this year and will maintain the current 40% blending ratio. However, the B50 mandatory addition plan is expected to start in the second half of 2026[1][2]. - Indian buyers have locked in a large amount of soybean oil purchases from April to July 2026, 150,000 tons per month of South American soybean oil[1]. - Malaysia has lowered the reference price of crude palm oil in February, and the export tariff has dropped to 9%[1]. - From January 1st to 10th, Malaysia's palm oil export volume was 504,400 tons, a 29.2% increase from 390,442 tons in the same period of December, but exports to China decreased by 31,000 tons to 18,000 tons[1]. - As of the end of the second week of 2026, the total inventory of the three major edible oils in China was 2.1417 million tons, a weekly decrease of 104,800 tons, a 4.67% month - on - month decrease, and a 7.76% year - on - year increase[2]. 3.1.3 Market Logic - Externally, the easing of the US - Iran situation has pressured international crude oil prices, but the US government's approval of the 2026 biofuel quota has boosted the price of US soybean oil. Malaysian palm oil prices initially fell but recovered due to the sharp rise in US soybean oil[2]. - Domestically, for soybean oil, the news is mixed. Customs has tightened the clearance of imported soybeans, but the auction of domestic old imported soybeans was fully sold, and the Spring Festival stocking is still ongoing. For palm oil, Indonesia's cancellation of the B50 plan in 2026 has led to a recovery in import profits and inventory accumulation. For rapeseed oil, the discussion on canola seeds has achieved results, but short - selling funds entered the market, and then the price rebounded at night[2]. 3.1.4 Trading Strategy - Unilateral: New long positions can be entered for soybean and palm oil, and short - term long positions can be held for rapeseed oil, paying attention to its rebound strength. Provide support and resistance levels for each contract[2]. - Arbitrage: Exit the previously concerned strategy of expanding the spread between soybean and palm oil[2]. 3.2 Two - Meal (Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal) Sector 3.2.1 Market Review - On January 15th, the market basically digested the negative news of Canadian rapeseed's return to the Chinese market. With weak oil and strong meal, the near - month contracts of the two - meal oscillated, and the far - month contracts were bearish. The main soybean meal contract M2605 closed at 2,740 yuan/ton, down 0.40% day - on - day, with a daily increase of 6,160 lots[2]. 3.2.2 Important News - The auction of 1.1396 million tons of imported soybeans was fully sold, with a base price of 3,630 - 3,790 yuan/ton and an average transaction price of 3,809.55 yuan/ton, mostly at a premium[3]. - The 2025/26 global soybean outlook includes increased production, higher crushing volume, reduced exports, and increased ending stocks. Global soybean production is raised by 3.1 million tons to 425.7 million tons, mainly due to increased production in Brazil and the US[3]. - As of January 9th, the 2025/26 Brazilian soybean harvest progress was 0.53%, compared with 0.05% in the same period last year and a five - year average of 0.39%[3]. - As of December 30th, the 2025/26 Argentine soybean sowing was 82% complete, with good growth conditions[3]. - Brazil's soybean exports in December 2025 were estimated to be 3.38 million tons, a 69% year - on - year increase. The estimated soybean exports in January 2026 are 2.4 million tons, a 114% year - on - year increase, and the 2026 exports are expected to reach a record 112 million tons[3]. - As of the end of the second week of 2026, the total domestic inventory of imported soybeans was 7.488 million tons, an increase of 612,000 tons from the previous week[3]. 3.2.3 Market Logic - Externally, the US new - year biofuel usage plan has boosted the price of US soybeans. - Domestically, the spot price of the oil mill is stable, and the near - month basis is strong. Before the Spring Festival, the spot price is likely to rise. The negotiation on reducing the Canadian rapeseed tariff is ongoing and effective, and there are rumors of opening the import of Canadian rapeseed meal, which suppresses the futures market[4]. 3.2.4 Trading Strategy - The 05 contracts of the two - meal are expected to oscillate at the bottom in the medium - term, with intraday trading. Short positions can be gradually arranged for the 09 contracts. Provide support and resistance levels for each contract. There is no arbitrage strategy for now[4].