研究员： 纪晓云 从业资格： F3066027 交易咨询资格：Z0011402 Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 12 月 29 日星期一 联系方式：010-56711796 | | | | | | | 钢材: 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 周五夜盘螺纹热卷收涨。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、全国财政工作会议在北京召开。会议指出，2026 年继续实施更加积极的财政政 | | | | | 策；扩大财政支出盘子，确保必要支出力度；优化政府债券工具组合，更好发挥债 | | | | | 券效益。会议要求，2026 年财政工作抓好六项重点任务，包括坚持内需主导，大力 | | | | | 提振消费，加大对新质生产力、人的全面发展等重点领域投入；加快培育壮大新动 | | | | | 能，进一步增加财政科技投入等。 | | | | | 2、国家统计局数据显示，1-11 月份，黑色金属冶炼和压延加工业实现利润总额 ...

格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 12 月 29 日星期一 Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为格林大华期货有限公司。 研究员：纪晓云 从业资格：F3066027 交易咨询资格：Z0011402 联系方式：010-56711796 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | 上周焦煤主力合约收于 1115.5 元/吨，周涨幅 1.09%；焦炭主力合约收于 1720.0 元/吨， | | | | | 周跌幅 1.15%。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、全国工业和信息化工作会议在京召开。会议强调，2026 年要提高行业治理效能。加 | | | | | 快编制实施工业和信息化领域"十五五"系列规划。深入整治"内卷式"竞争，坚决遏 | | | | | 制低价低质量竞争。 | | | | | 2、国家统计局数据显示，1-11 月份，黑色金属冶炼和压延加工业实现 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the macro and financial (government bonds) sector is "volatile" [1] Group 2: Report's Core View - On Friday, the main contracts of government bond futures generally opened flat, with the 30 - year main contract TL2603 rising 0.36%, the 10 - year T2603 rising 0.10%, the 5 - year TF2603 rising 0.05%, and the 2 - year TS2603 rising 0.03%. The short - term trend of government bond futures may be volatile. The stock market and government bond futures both rose on Friday. The trading - type investment should conduct band operations [1][2] Group 3: Summary of Key Information Market Performance - On Friday, the main contracts of government bond futures generally opened flat, with the 30 - year main contract TL2603 rising 0.36%, the 10 - year T2603 rising 0.10%, the 5 - year TF2603 rising 0.05%, and the 2 - year TS2603 rising 0.03%. The Wande All - A Index opened slightly higher, climbed in the morning, then fell rapidly, rebounded in the afternoon and fell slightly, closing up 0.34% with a trading volume of 2.18 trillion yuan, slightly higher than the previous trading day's 1.94 trillion yuan [1][2] Important News - Open market: On Friday, the central bank conducted 93 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 56.2 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net investment of 36.8 billion yuan [1] - Money market: On Friday, the overnight interest rate in the inter - bank money market remained low. The weighted average of DR001 was 1.26%, the same as the previous trading day; the weighted average of DR007 was 1.52%, up from 1.48% of the previous trading day [1] - Cash bond market: On Friday, the closing yields of inter - bank government bonds mostly declined compared with the previous trading day. The 2 - year government bond yield rose 0.20 BP to 1.34%, the 5 - year fell 0.80 BP to 1.59%, the 10 - year fell 0.10 BP to 1.84%, and the 30 - year fell 0.19 BP to 2.22% [1] - Industrial enterprise data: From January to November, the operating income of industrial enterprises above designated size was 125.34 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.6%. The total profit was 6.62686 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.1%. In November, the profit of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 13.1% year - on - year, indicating greater operating pressure on industrial enterprises [1] - Fiscal policy: The National Fiscal Work Conference from December 27th to 28th stated that in 2026, a more proactive fiscal policy will be continued, including expanding fiscal expenditure, optimizing the government bond tool combination, etc. A special consumption - boosting action will be carried out, and funds will be allocated to support the replacement of consumer goods [1] - Central bank report: The central bank released the "China Financial Stability Report (2025)", proposing to implement a more proactive macro - policy and prevent and resolve risks in key areas, and improve the institutional and policy environment for long - term investment [1][2] Market Logic - In November, the profit of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 13.1% year - on - year. In December, industrial product prices continued to hover at low levels, while agricultural product wholesale prices rose, helping the December CPI to remain at a relatively high level within the year. New home sales in December continued to decline significantly year - on - year. The central bank will adjust the intensity, rhythm, and timing of monetary policy according to the situation [2] Trading Strategy - Trading - type investment should conduct band operations [2]

研究员：吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 周五夜盘瓶片主力价格下跌 104 元至 6022 元/吨。华东水瓶级瓶片价格 6080 元/吨 （+95），华南瓶片价格 6130 元/吨（+100）。持仓方面，多头持仓减少 3572 手至 5.66 万手，空头持仓减少 2831 手至 6.09 万手。 【重要资讯】 33.36 万吨，环比持平。国内聚酯瓶 1、供应和成本利润方面，国内聚酯瓶片产量为 | | | | | 片产能利用率周均值为 73.05%，环比持平；聚酯瓶片生产成本 5445 元，环比+261 | | | | | 元/吨；聚酯瓶片周生产毛利为-177 元/吨，环比-59 元/吨。 | | | | | 2、2025 年 11 月中国聚酯瓶片出口 53.3 万吨，较上月增加 0.99 万吨。2025 年累计 | | | | | 出口量 586.5 万吨。 | | 能源与化 | 瓶片 | 震荡 | 3、因西方 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - For the vegetable oil sector, it is recommended to short - term go long and wait for long - term short - selling opportunities after the rebound. For the two - meal (bean meal and rapeseed meal) sector, it is expected to rebound from a low level, and new selling points should be sought after the rebound ends [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Vegetable Oil Sector 3.1 Market Review - On December 26, the vegetable oil sector showed an overall strong trend. The large - scale exit of short positions in soybean oil boosted its price. Palm oil was still under pressure at the 20 - day moving average, and the rebound of rapeseed oil weakened. For example, the main soybean oil contract Y2605 closed at 7,836 yuan/ton, up 0.15% day - on - day, with a daily reduction of 10,112 lots [1] 3.2 Important Information - The biodiesel policy may be favorable. The Trump administration may make a decision on the 45Z tax credit for sustainable aviation fuel next week. From January 1, 2026, the tax credit for US biodiesel producers will increase to 64 cents per gallon, and that for renewable diesel producers will increase to 53 cents per gallon [1] - Indian buyers have locked in a large - scale purchase of 150,000 tons per month of South American soybean oil from April to July 2026 [1] - From December 1 - 20, the palm oil production in Malaysia decreased by 7.15% month - on - month, with the fresh fruit bunch (FFB) yield decreasing by 6.26% month - on - month and the oil extraction rate (OER) decreasing by 0.17% month - on - month [1] - From December 1 - 25, the palm oil export volume in Malaysia was 1,058,112 tons, a 1.6% increase compared to the same period in November. Exports to China were 108,000 tons, a decrease of 40,000 tons compared to the same period last month [1] - Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources released the total biodiesel allocation for 2026 as 15.65 billion liters, an increase of about 30 million liters compared to 2025. The PSO total allocation decreased, and the B50 road test was launched in December 2025, with the mandatory addition plan expected to start in the second half of 2026 [1] - As of the end of the 51st week of 2025, the total inventory of the three major edible oils in China was 2.2936 million tons, a weekly decrease of 17,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.77%, and a year - on - year increase of 8.30% [1] 3.3 Market Logic - Overseas: After Christmas, US soybean oil opened higher and closed lower, but the overall center of gravity moved up and was still in a rebound. Domestic: For soybean oil, the factory inventory decreased by 25,000 tons, indicating a short - term supply shortage, but the oil mill's crushing volume and operating rate remained high. For palm oil, the Malaysian market opened and closed higher. The strong overseas vegetable oil market is expected to boost the domestic market. For rapeseed oil, due to market news that many traders plan to take delivery of the 2601 rapeseed oil warehouse receipts and actively inquire about crude rapeseed oil, and the continuous reduction of rapeseed oil inventory in East China, the 2601 Zhengzhou rapeseed oil contract led the domestic vegetable oil market, and the 2605 contract also followed the upward trend [2] 3.4 Trading Strategy - Unilateral: New positions in vegetable oils should be short - term long, and a long - term short - selling mindset should be maintained. Do not engage in long - term trading during the New Year's Day holiday. Provide support and resistance levels for different contracts, such as the Y2605 contract with a resistance level of 8,400 and a support level of 7,400 [2] - Arbitrage: None Two - Meal (Bean Meal and Rapeseed Meal) Sector 3.1 Market Review - On December 26, the customs rumors led to an increase in spot market transactions, boosting the futures market. The main bean meal contract M2605 closed at 2,790 yuan/ton, up 1.09% day - on - day, with a daily reduction of 6,453 lots [2] 3.2 Important Information - The US Department of Agriculture estimates that in the 2026/2027 season, US farmers will reduce corn planting area and increase soybean planting area to 85 million acres [2] - StoneX reported that China has purchased more than 8 million tons of US soybeans, moving towards the goal of 12 million tons [2] - As of December 11, the sowing of soybeans in Brazil in the 2025/26 season was 97% complete, higher than 94% a week ago [2] - StoneX predicts that the soybean output in Brazil in the 2025/26 season may reach 178.9 million tons, higher than the previous estimate of 175 million tons by the US Department of Agriculture [3] - As of December 13, the soybean sowing rate in Brazil was 94.1%, compared with 90.3% last week, 96.8% in the same period last year, and a five - year average of 90.6% [3] - The Brazilian National Association of Grain Exporters (ANEC) expects the soybean export volume in December to be 3.57 million tons, up from the previous estimate of 3.33 million tons [3] - S&P Global Research Report states that in 2026, the US soybean market will face a decline in both output and exports, while Brazil's soybean harvest may prompt China to seek more Brazilian supplies [3] - As of the end of the 51st week of 2025, the total inventory of imported soybeans in China was 7.646 million tons, a decrease of 409,000 tons compared to last week. The domestic bean meal inventory was 1.095 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.38% [3] - On December 24, there were rumors that the customs inspection procedures would be tightened until the second quarter of next year [3] 3.3 Market Logic - Overseas: The price of US soybeans rebounded after Christmas. In the spot market, the fixed - price of oil mills increased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton, and some enterprises continued to raise prices after the market closed. Traders replenish goods as needed, waiting for the shutdown arrangement of oil mills in January. The terminal has pre - holiday stocking demand but is not willing to chase high prices. The market is concerned about whether it can break through the half - year line pressure level under the drive of the rise in bean meal. In the spot market, terminal purchases are mainly for rigid demand, with general trading volume, and prices fluctuate with the futures market, and the basis quotation shows a narrow - range adjustment [3] 3.4 Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Bean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to rebound from a low level. New selling points should be sought after the rebound ends. Provide support and resistance levels for different contracts, such as the M2605 contract with a resistance level of 2,858 and a support level of 2,660 [3] - Arbitrage: None

Report Industry Investment Rating - The global economic outlook in the macro and financial sector is (weakening) [1] Core Viewpoints - The global economy is weakening as the US makes continuous policy mistakes and is past its peak [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Important Information - Trump ordered an air strike on Nigeria on Christmas Eve, escalating US tensions with the largest economy in West Africa, and the move is related to global energy pattern changes and strategic mineral supply - chain competition [1] - The US economy shows a "K - shaped divide", with large enterprises profiting from the AI wave while small businesses face difficulties due to inflation, tariffs, and consumption downgrade, exacerbating employment and social inequality [1] - Large tech companies are moving over $120 billion in data - center spending off their balance sheets via SPVs, raising concerns about financial risks in AI investment [1] - Mark Strouse from JPMorgan believes that in 2025, investors only need AI exposure, but in 2026, actual deals and order accumulation are required [1] - A new La Nina is forming, the fifth in the past six years, which will disrupt the global weather system and pose risks to agriculture, energy markets, and supply chains [1] - Jim Rickards predicts that factors driving the metal market up will continue next year, with gold possibly reaching $10,000 and silver $200 [1] - The London silver market is experiencing a severe physical squeeze, with the one - year silver swap spread at - 7.18%, showing a shortage of physical silver [1] - Fujitsu will join a project led by SoftBank to develop next - generation memory for AI and supercomputers, aiming to revive Japan's memory production technology [1] Global Economic Logic - Goldman Sachs believes global stocks are in the "optimistic phase" of a bull market, with a 15% total return (including dividends) in 2026 [2] - The Fed cut rates by 25 basis points in December, buys $40 billion in short - term bonds monthly, and its balance sheet is expanding again [2] - Trump wants the next Fed chair to support "substantial rate cuts" [2] - Goldman Sachs warns that the decline in Las Vegas gambling revenue is similar to pre - 2008 financial crisis signals [2] - The US released a new National Security Strategy, adjusting its economic relationship with China and aiming to boost its economic autonomy [2] - The Fed's Beige Book shows a growing K - shaped divide among US consumers [2] - The Bank of Japan raised rates by 25 basis points, and the 10 - year Japanese government bond yield reached 2.0% [2] - Google aims to double AI computing power every six months and achieve a 1000 - fold increase in 4 - 5 years [2] - NVIDIA's Huang Renxun thinks China will win the AI race due to favorable regulations and low energy costs [2] - JPMorgan strategists estimate that AI data - center construction will require at least $5 trillion in the next five years [2] - The US unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, and economists worry about large - scale corporate layoffs as an economic warning [2] - The US's return to the Monroe Doctrine and global contraction will have a profound impact on major asset classes [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 2: Core Views of the Report - On Friday, the major indices of the two markets showed a sharp fluctuation at noon after surging, but the upward trend remained intact. Growth - type indices are expected to enter an upward market first. The market is shifting from valuation repair to profit - driven, and regional diversification is taking effect. Global funds are re - increasing their positions in the Chinese stock market, and the Chinese technology sector is becoming a new battlefield for global funds to deploy AI [1][2][3] - Goldman Sachs believes that the Chinese stock market cycle is shifting from 'expectation - driven' to 'profit - driven'. Chinese corporate profits may grow by 14% next year and 12% in 2027, with a valuation expansion of about 10%. Morgan Stanley believes that in 2026, the risk of a sharp rise in the Chinese stock market is much higher than that of a sharp fall [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - On Friday, the major indices of the two markets showed a sharp fluctuation at noon after surging, but the upward trend remained. The trading volume of the two markets was 2.16 trillion yuan, showing a moderate increase. The CSI 500 index closed at 7458 points, up 48 points or 0.65%; the CSI 1000 index closed at 7605 points, up 26 points or 0.35%; the SSE 300 index closed at 4657 points, up 14 points or 0.32%; the SSE 50 index closed at 3045 points, up 12 points or 0.41% [1] - Among industry and theme ETFs, those with the highest gains were mining ETFs, non - ferrous metal ETFs, satellite industry ETFs, rare metal ETF funds, and new energy ETFs. Those with the highest losses were semiconductor equipment ETFs, communication ETFs, and science and technology innovation semiconductor ETFs. Among the sector indices of the two markets, those with the highest gains were aerospace equipment, forestry, industrial metals, energy metals, and photovoltaic equipment indices. Those with the highest losses were consumer electronics, rubber, food processing, fishing, and papermaking indices [1] - The settlement funds of stock index futures for the CSI 1000, CSI 500, SSE 300, and SSE 50 indices had net inflows of 9.9 billion, 8.6 billion, 5.9 billion, and 2.2 billion yuan respectively [1] 2. Important Information - The central bank released the 'China Financial Stability Report (2025)', aiming to improve the institutional and policy environment conducive to 'long - term investment of long - term funds', significantly increase the actual investment scale and proportion of various medium - and long - term funds in A - shares, and strive to achieve a virtuous cycle of medium - and long - term fund preservation and appreciation, stable and healthy operation of the capital market, and high - quality development of the real economy [1] - The person in charge of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology revealed that the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size is expected to increase by 5.9% year - on - year in 2025. From January to November this year, the added value of high - tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing industries above the designated size increased by 9.2% and 9.3% year - on - year respectively. The transformation and upgrading of the manufacturing industry is accelerating, with a total of more than 7,000 advanced - level and more than 500 excellent - level intelligent factories built [1] - The National Conference on Industry and Information Technology was held. It will deeply rectify 'involution - style' competition and resolutely curb low - price and low - quality competition. It will cultivate a new batch of 'little giant' enterprises, single - champion manufacturing enterprises, and national - level characteristic industrial clusters of small and medium - sized enterprises. It will speed up the cleaning up of overdue payments to enterprises and resolutely curb new overdue payments [1] - The National Venture Capital Guidance Fund was launched, with a more precise investment positioning. The fund is guided by 'investing in the early stage, small - scale projects, long - term projects, and hard - tech fields', focusing on cutting - edge fields such as artificial intelligence, biopharmaceuticals, quantum technology, and 6G, with a survival cycle of 15 - 20 years to match the R & D needs of hard - tech and long - cycle projects [1] - The 'Guidelines for the Application of the Listing Review Rules of the Shanghai Stock Exchange No. 9 - Application of the Fifth Listing Standard of the Science and Technology Innovation Board by Commercial Rocket Enterprises' was issued. The main business must be independent R & D. At the time of application, it must at least use medium - and large - sized launch vehicles with reusable technology to successfully send the payload into orbit for the first time [1] - As of December 24, a total of 3,583 public funds implemented dividends, with a cumulative dividend amount of 239.63304 billion yuan and 7,318 dividend times. Compared with the same period last year, the number of funds participating in dividends increased by 16.10% year - on - year, the total dividend amount increased by 11.01% year - on - year, and the number of dividend times increased by 15.99% year - on - year [2] - The photovoltaic module sector announced price increases. Photovoltaic module manufacturers such as LONGi Green Energy and JinkoSolar have successively raised their module quotes, with an increase range of 0.02 - 0.05 yuan per watt. The reason for the price increase of each component manufacturer is basically the same: the rise in upstream material prices [2] - Benchmark enterprises will conduct bid - evaluation and pricing for upstream materials in the near future. The production lines of cathode materials such as YuNeng/WanRun/DeFang Lithium Iron have been shut down for small - batch maintenance. The actions of some enterprises may trigger a chain reaction, and many lithium carbonate cathode enterprises are expected to use the Shanghai Steel Union and futures market prices as the settlement benchmark and carry out shutdown maintenance [2] - The US economy is experiencing an obvious 'K - shaped divergence': large enterprises are riding the AI wave with both profits and stock prices soaring, while small enterprises are deeply trapped in the dilemma of layoffs and profit decline under the multiple pressures of inflation, tariffs, and consumption downgrade. This 'polarization' at the enterprise level is intensifying the structural tear in the employment market and the gap between the rich and the poor in society [2] - Fujitsu will join a project led by Japanese technology investor SoftBank Group to jointly develop next - generation memory for artificial intelligence and supercomputers. Japan hopes to revive its once - leading memory production technology and make its companies one of the world's top memory producers [2] - Large technology companies are using special purpose vehicles (SPVs) funded by Wall Street investors to move more than $120 billion in data center expenditures off their balance sheets, which has increased concerns in the industry about the financial risks involved in their huge bets in the field of artificial intelligence [2] - A new round of La Nina phenomenon is forming, which is the fifth time in the past six years. Recently, frequent floods in Asia and early snowstorms in many parts of the United States are signs of the return of the La Nina phenomenon. This periodic cooling phenomenon in the Pacific waters will disrupt the global weather system and pose significant risks to the agricultural, energy markets, and supply chains [2] 3. Market Logic - The market is shifting from valuation repair to profit - driven, and regional diversification is taking effect. High - growth indices are expected to enter an upward market first. Goldman Sachs believes that the global stock market has entered the 'optimistic stage' of the bull market, and the profits in 2026 will continue to support the market. If dividends are included, the total return rate will reach 15% [2] - As of December 20, the ETFs investing in Chinese assets globally have received a cumulative net inflow of $83.1 billion in funds since 2025. In terms of industry distribution, the technology sector has received the most foreign capital inflows, reaching $9.5 billion, mainly from the United States and Europe. Merrill Lynch analysts have changed their views on the Chinese market. The most surprising things are China's strong technological breakthroughs and cost advantages in the field of AI and its resilience and preparation in the face of external pressures, which are restoring global investors' confidence in China's long - term growth [2] - Zhongtai Securities said that the stock market has achieved a net inflow of 2.26 trillion yuan in 2025. In 2026, insurance, wealth management, and pensions will be the three major sources of incremental funds. The incremental funds of institutions in the stock market in 2026 will reach 3.1 trillion yuan, and the scale of public 'fixed - income +' products will at least double compared with this year. More and more international funds are turning their attention to the AI track outside the United States. The Chinese technology sector is becoming a new battlefield for global funds to deploy AI due to its significant valuation advantages, complete industrial ecosystem, and irreplaceable large - scale manufacturing capabilities [2][3] 4. Future Market Outlook - The upward trend of the major indices of the two markets remains intact. Goldman Sachs analysts believe that the Chinese stock market cycle is shifting from 'expectation - driven' to 'profit - driven'. Chinese corporate profits may grow by 14% next year and 12% in 2027, with a valuation expansion of about 10%. As of December 19, the total scale of all listed ETFs in the market reached 5.83 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.09 trillion yuan or 56% compared with the beginning of the year. ETFs have become an important channel to attract residents' wealth [3] - Global funds are re - increasing their positions in the Chinese stock market. The logic of AI strength, valuation attractiveness, and resilience has become a consensus. Foreign capital is shifting from passive inflow to expecting the return of active funds. Morgan Stanley believes that in 2026, the risk of a sharp rise in the Chinese stock market is much higher than that of a sharp fall. The bank is optimistic about multiple positive factors in the Chinese market, including the acceleration of AI applications, anti - involution, and the re - allocation of domestic liquidity from deposits to the stock market [3] - The return of the United States to the Monroe Doctrine will accelerate the flow of global funds to the Chinese capital market. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points and purchased $40 billion in short - term bonds per month, and the Federal Reserve's balance sheet has restarted expansion. Some institutions have started the spring market in advance. Driven by the aerospace and satellite sectors, the growth - style CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices have continued to strengthen. The sharp fluctuation in Friday's intraday trading is a repair of short - term technical indicators. All kinds of funds are expected to accelerate their entry into the market three days before New Year's Day [3] 5. Trading Strategies - Stock index futures directional trading: The sharp fluctuation in Friday's intraday trading is a repair of short - term technical indicators. All kinds of funds are expected to accelerate their entry into the market before New Year's Day. The trading strategy should turn to an offensive one, and long positions in stock index futures with growth - type indices as the main targets should be established opportunistically [3] - Stock index option trading: All kinds of funds are expected to accelerate their entry into the market before New Year's Day. Call options on the CSI 1000 index should be opened opportunistically [3]

联系方式：0371-65617380 Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 12 月 29 日星期一 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | 上周五夜盘玉米期货涨势延续，截至夜盘收盘2603合约涨幅1%，收于2230元/吨。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、中国粮油商务网数据显示，截至12月26日北方港口四港玉米库存共计约180万吨 | | | | | 。北方港口到货量相对一般，库存同比仍处于历史偏低水平；广东港口玉米库存56 | | | | | 万吨，内贸玉米日均出货在3.3万吨。 | | | | | 2、中国粮油商务网监测数据显示，截止到2025年第52周末，广州港口谷物库存量为 | | | | | 149.2万吨，环比增加15.57%，同比下降48.34%。其中：玉米库存量为65.8万吨，环 | | | | | 比增加31.08%，同比下降5 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The stock index is turning offensive, and an upward market is expected to start before New Year's Day [65]. - China's stock market cycle is shifting from 'expectation-driven' to 'profit-driven', with profit realization and moderate valuation expansion as the core drivers of returns [20]. - Global funds are re - investing in China's stock market, and the technology sector is becoming a new battlefield for global funds to layout AI [20]. Summary by Related Contents Market and Index Information - Among the four stock index futures, the CSI 500 Index has the highest 'technology content' and is approaching its previous high [11]. - Institutional funds entered the market on a large scale through A500ETF, pushing the Shanghai Composite Index above 3950 points [14]. - As of December 19, the total scale of listed ETFs in the entire market reached 5.83 trillion yuan, a year - to - date increase of 2.09 trillion yuan, an increase of 56% [20]. - The trading strategy for stock index futures is to turn offensive and opportunistically establish long positions in stock index futures mainly based on growth - type indices [21]. - The trading strategy for stock index options is to turn offensive and opportunistically open call options on the CSI 1000 Index [22]. Economic Data in China - In November, the year - on - year growth rate of the core CPI was 1.2%, the real interest rate has been negative for consecutive periods, and the PPI increased by 0.1% month - on - month [23]. - The margin trading balance exceeded 2.5 trillion yuan, reaching a new high, and 2.38 million new A - share accounts were opened in November [25]. - China's export value in November was 330.3 billion US dollars, with a year - on - year growth rate of 5.9%, indicating that exports still have resilience [28]. - In November, the monthly value of manufacturing fixed - asset investment was 2.94 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth rate of - 4.4%, showing a stall in manufacturing investment [31]. - In November, the monthly value of infrastructure investment was 2.08 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth rate of - 11.9%, indicating a stall in infrastructure investment and reflecting local fiscal difficulties [34]. - In November, the year - on - year growth rate of real estate development investment was - 31.3%, hitting a new low [37]. - The total retail sales of consumer goods in November was 4.38 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth rate of 1.3%. Consumption has become the main driving force for economic growth [40]. Economic Data in the United States - The US core CPI in November was 2.6%, far lower than the expected 3.0% [43]. - The number of initial jobless claims in the US in a week was 224,000, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.6% [46]. - In November, the newly - added ADP employment in the US showed negative growth, and the number of active corporate lay - offs increased rapidly [49]. - In October, the total retail and food sales in the US had zero month - on - month growth, indicating a weakening of US consumption [52]. - In September, both the year - on - year and month - on - month growth rates of US capital goods import value decreased rapidly, suggesting a poor manufacturing outlook [55]. - In November, the ISM manufacturing PMI price index continued to expand, and the service PMI price index still expanded rapidly, indicating an acceleration of inflation in the US [58]. Situation in Japan - The Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 0.75%, and the yield of Japan's 10 - year government bonds soared above 2.0%. The large - scale return of yen carry trades will have a negative impact on US bonds and stocks [61][62]. Industry - Specific Events - On December 6, LandSpace Technology verified the vertical recovery technology of the first - stage rocket [7]. - The US and China are in a fierce space infrastructure competition, and the commercial space industry has entered a high - growth phase led by national will [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Chinese equity assets are expected to initiate a spring market. Factors include the Fed's monthly purchase of $40 billion in short - term bonds, intense space infrastructure competition between China and the US, institutional funds entering the market through A500ETF, the approaching of CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices to previous highs, the seasonal pattern of the Chinese stock market, the end of the A - share sideways movement, the high "science content" of the CSI 500 index, and the accelerating appreciation of the RMB [37]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Global Economic Outlook - Goldman Sachs believes that the global stock market has entered the "optimistic stage" of a bull market, and in 2026, earnings will continue to support the market, with a total return rate of 15% including dividends [4]. - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December, started buying $40 billion in short - term bonds monthly, and restarted the expansion of its balance sheet [4][5]. - Trump stated that the next Fed chairman must believe in "substantial interest rate cuts" [4]. - Goldman Sachs analysts warned that the current decline in Las Vegas gambling revenue is similar to the early warning signals before the 2008 financial crisis [4]. - The US released a new National Security Strategy, adjusted its economic relations with China, and aimed to revitalize its economic autonomy [4]. - The Fed's Beige Book showed that consumer K - shaped differentiation has intensified. High - income consumers' spending remains resilient, while middle - and low - income families are tightening their belts [4]. - The Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points, and the yield of Japan's 10 - year government bonds rose to 2.0% [4]. - The US unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, and economists are worried that large - scale corporate layoffs are an economic warning signal [4][11]. - The US is returning to the Monroe Doctrine, which will have a profound impact on major asset classes [4]. - The US November core CPI was 2.6%, far lower than the expected 3.0% [8]. - The US weekly initial jobless claims were 224,000 [11]. - The US employment outlook declined. The number of new ADP jobs in November was negative, and the number of active corporate layoffs increased rapidly [14]. - The total retail and food sales in the US in October showed zero month - on - month growth, indicating weakening consumption [17]. - The US capital goods import amount in September decreased rapidly both year - on - year and month - on - month, suggesting a poor manufacturing outlook [20]. - The US ISM manufacturing PMI index continued to contract in November [23]. - The US manufacturing PMI price index and service PMI price index continued to expand in November, indicating accelerating inflation [26]. - The US PPI commodity month - on - month growth rate in September was 0.9%. Coupled with weakening consumption and declining employment, the US economy is slipping into stagflation [29]. - The eurozone manufacturing PMI contracted again in November, and the eurozone economy was greatly impacted by US counter - tariffs [32]. - The Bank of Japan's interest rate hike and the rise in the yield of Japanese government bonds will have a negative impact on US bonds, US stocks, and Chinese bonds [34]. Asset Allocation - The Fed's purchase of short - term bonds is beneficial to Chinese equity assets [37]. - The space infrastructure competition between China and the US has led to a high - growth period in commercial space, and satellite ETFs have risen strongly [37][38]. - Some institutions have started spring layout in advance, and institutional funds have entered the market through A500ETF, pushing the Shanghai Composite Index above 3,950 points [37][45]. - The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices are close to previous highs and are expected to reach new highs after New Year's Day [37]. - The Chinese stock market has a seasonal pattern, and usually starts a spring offensive around the Spring Festival [37]. - The A - share market has been sideways for 4 months since late August and is expected to start a new market [37][48]. - Among the four stock index futures, the CSI 500 index has the highest "science content" and is expected to break through previous highs [37][51]. - The accelerating appreciation of the RMB is conducive to the influx of international capital into China [37][54]. Space Infrastructure - Blue Arrow Aerospace verified the vertical recovery technology of the first - stage rocket on December 6 [41].