1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Observing the duration of bond funds helps investors assess their risks. By calculating the duration, one can estimate the risk - return characteristics of the fund, including the annualized return and net - value changes during interest - rate fluctuations. In a volatile interest - rate market, bond funds with longer durations face greater price - fluctuation risks, while those with shorter durations are relatively more stable [2]. - Over the past three years, the overall duration of funds has been on an upward trend, which is an active choice of institutions to optimize risk - return in a low - interest - rate environment. There is an obvious negative correlation between duration changes and the yield of the ten - year Treasury bond. In an interest - rate downward cycle, extending the duration becomes the core strategy to increase returns [4]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Duration Essence Re - understanding - Duration is an approximate indicator to measure the sensitivity of bond value to interest - rate changes. It is the approximate percentage of value change when the interest rate changes by 100 basis points, determining the interest - rate risk exposure. It can also be regarded as a time measure, reflecting the elasticity of bond prices relative to interest - rate changes. Longer duration means higher sensitivity to interest - rate changes [1][13]. - Modified duration is a form of duration used by industry insiders. It is the approximate percentage of bond - price change when the yield changes by 100 basis points under the assumption that the expected cash flow of the bond remains unchanged [1][13]. 3.2 Bond Fund Duration Calculation Methods - The mainstream bond - fund duration calculation methods in the market include the top - holding weighted method, the interest - rate sensitivity method, and the asset - portfolio method. In high - frequency calculation scenarios, the asset - portfolio method is the most mainstream and has the best comprehensive performance, combining data frequency (daily/weekly) and dynamic adjustment ability [2][16][17]. 3.3 Bond Fund Duration Estimation Steps 3.3.1 Sample Selection - Focus on pure - bond funds. Select medium - long - term and short - term pure - bond funds respectively, excluding funds with less than one - year data, funds using the amortized - cost valuation method, and non - original funds. The observation time is set from the beginning of 2017 to the present [18][19][20]. 3.3.2 Duration Calculation - Based on top - holding bonds: Calculate the weighted - average portfolio duration using the top five heavy - holding bonds disclosed in the fund's regular reports. However, this method may lead to large deviations [22][23]. - Based on interest - rate sensitivity: Derive the fund's duration from the interest - rate risk sensitivity analysis in the fund's regular reports. But the data update frequency is low [24]. - Using the asset - portfolio method: Introduce a method based on factor - return regression estimation. Take the average daily return of pure - bond public funds as the explained variable and the daily returns of different bond indices as explanatory variables. After regression analysis, the fund's portfolio duration can be reasonably estimated [28]. 3.4 Model Selection - After comparing the advantages and disadvantages of OLS, Lasso regression, Ridge regression, Stepwise Regression, and LAD, LAD is selected as the core regression method for estimating the daily duration of bond funds to ensure the robustness and interpretability of the model output in complex market environments [33][39]. 3.5 Factor Processing - Select a factor system covering interest - rate bond index factors and credit - bond index factors. Use the Variance Inflation Factor (VIF) analysis method to screen variables, removing variables with high VIF values to ensure the stability of model parameters [40][42]. 3.6 Bond Fund Duration Calculation and Tracking 3.6.1 Pure - Bond Fund Duration Calculation - The calculated duration and the reported duration of pure - bond funds generally have the same trend and small differences. From 2017 to 2025, the average and median durations of pure - bond funds were relatively stable, while the maximum duration continued to rise, and the minimum duration was basically below 1 year. There is a negative correlation between the median duration of pure - bond funds and the yield of the ten - year Treasury bond [45][48][50]. 3.6.2 Medium - Long - Term Bond Fund vs. Short - Term Bond Fund Duration Calculation - The duration of medium - long - term and short - term pure - bond funds is on an upward trend. The duration of medium - long - term pure - bond funds fluctuates more widely, and the distribution is more stratified. The duration of short - term pure - bond funds is more concentrated, and the risk - preference differentiation is limited. There is a negative correlation between the duration of both types of funds and the yield of the ten - year Treasury bond [57][59][66]. 3.6.3 Interest - Rate Bond Fund vs. Credit - Bond Fund Duration Calculation - The durations of both credit - bond funds and interest - rate bond funds show an upward trend, with the latter having a larger increase. The duration adjustment of credit - bond funds is relatively stable, while that of interest - rate bond funds is more volatile. There is a negative correlation between the duration of both types of funds and the yield of the ten - year Treasury bond, and the interest - rate bond funds respond more directly to interest - rate changes [79][81][93]. 3.6.4 Single - Fund Duration Calculation - Taking "Huatai Baoxing Anyue A" as an example, the regression result is basically consistent with the reported data. The fund's duration remained stable below 2.5 years from 2020 to June 2023 and then increased sharply [100].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][6] Core Insights - The first policy document regarding manufacturing measurement was released by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology on June 7, 2025, aimed at enhancing measurement capabilities in the manufacturing sector and supporting the construction of a modern industrial system [2][5] - The action plan issued on July 9, 2025, by the State Administration for Market Regulation and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology focuses on elevating measurement as a foundational infrastructure for new quality productivity, establishing a project database for ten frontier industries, and promoting cross-industry collaboration [3][11] - The policy and action plan are expected to accelerate high-quality development in the measurement industry, leading to an upgrade in demand and optimization of supply [3][16] Summary by Sections Policy Document Overview - The document outlines quantitative targets to be achieved by 2027 and 2030, including over 100 key measurement calibration technologies and the establishment of high-level measurement institutions [5][7] - It emphasizes six key tasks to strengthen effective supply in manufacturing measurement, including innovation in emerging fields and the development of high-precision measurement instruments [8][10] Action Plan Overview - The action plan aims to support the development of new quality productivity from 2025 to 2030, focusing on major measurement needs in key industries such as artificial intelligence and aerospace [12][13] - It includes a mechanism for collecting project demands, establishing a project database, and selecting key projects annually [14][15] Investment Recommendations - The report highlights specific companies to focus on, such as Guangdian Measurement and Huace Testing, which are positioned to benefit from the new policies and are expected to see growth in demand due to their leading roles in measurement calibration and testing services [16]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][6][7] Core Viewpoints - The company is steadily advancing domestic oil and gas reserves and production, with a significant breakthrough in metamorphic rock exploration in the South China Sea [2][3] - The Bohai Oilfield has achieved a record oil and gas production of 20.5 million tons in the first half of 2025, enhancing offshore oil and gas supply capabilities [4][9] - The Guyana Stabroek block has reached a new monthly production high, with the Yellowtail project expected to commence production in Q4 2025, increasing total capacity to 940,000 barrels per day [4][10] Summary by Sections Domestic Production - The Weizhou 10-5 South Oilfield has made a significant breakthrough in metamorphic rock exploration, with a test well producing 400 barrels of oil and 16.5 million cubic feet of gas per day [3][8] - The Weizhou 5-3 oilfield development project has been put into production, with an expected peak output of approximately 10,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day by 2026 [3][8] Financial Forecasts - The Brent oil price forecast for 2025-2027 has been revised down from $75 to $68 per barrel, leading to a reduction in the company's net profit estimates to 126.3 billion, 129.7 billion, and 135 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [6][17] - Corresponding EPS estimates are 2.66, 2.73, and 2.84 yuan, with PE ratios of 9.7, 9.4, and 9.0x for the same years [6][17] Market Conditions - OPEC+ is gradually exiting an additional voluntary production cut of 2.2 million barrels per day, with short-term demand supported by seasonal factors [5][13] - The average WTI crude oil price for Q2 2025 is projected at $64.0 per barrel, reflecting a 10.5% quarter-on-quarter decline and a 20.7% year-on-year decline [5][14]

Core Insights - The report continues to recommend focusing on innovative drugs and the innovative industry chain, highlighting improvements in both domestic and overseas markets for July 2025 [5][4] - The investment strategy suggests a sustained focus on innovative drugs and related industries, with a specific portfolio of recommended stocks for A-shares and H-shares [5][6] Industry Overview - The pharmaceutical manufacturing industry reported a cumulative revenue of 994.79 billion yuan with a year-on-year decline of 1.4% from January to May 2025, while total profits decreased by 4.7% to 135.32 billion yuan [9][8] - The overall industrial added value for the pharmaceutical manufacturing sector grew by 0.9% during the same period, indicating a modest recovery [9][8] Market Performance - In June 2025, the pharmaceutical sector experienced a 0.70% increase, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.80% [10][11] - The medical service sector showed significant growth, with a 4.77% increase, while traditional Chinese medicine and medical commercial sectors faced declines of 1.86% and 1.23%, respectively [13][14] Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes the potential for domestic innovative drugs to achieve sales growth supported by medical insurance negotiations and commercial health insurance [5][4] - Recommended companies with high-quality innovation capabilities include Kelun-Biotech, CanSino Biologics, and Innovent Biologics, among others [5][4] Valuation Insights - The overall valuation level of the pharmaceutical sector is currently at a PE (TTM) of 46.97, which is at the 73.1% historical percentile over the past five years [20][19] - The report indicates that the pharmaceutical sector's valuation has fully adjusted, with premium rates relative to the CSI 300 and the entire A-share market being at their five-year averages [20][19] Recent Approvals and Applications - In June 2025, four innovative drugs or biosimilars were approved for market entry, including three domestic products and one imported product [22][23] - The report tracks NDA and IND applications for innovative drugs, highlighting several key products and their respective companies [24][25][26]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market has a consistent expectation that the Fed will not cut interest rates in July, and the short - term US Treasury yields are stable. After the end of the quarter, the domestic money market will loosen, and the central bank's attitude to maintain a loose liquidity is clear. It is expected that the domestic money market interest rates will decline seasonally in July [2][3][10] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overseas Key Money Market Indicator Changes Tracking - Since June, the 3 - month US Treasury yield has been stable, and the market has a consistent expectation that the Fed will not cut interest rates in July. The US federal funds rate and SOFR rate have been running smoothly [2][6] - As of 2025, the policy target rate (base money) in Japan is 0.5%, the eurozone's benchmark interest rate (main refinancing rate) is 2.15%, and the US federal funds target rate range is 4.25 - 4.50% [8] Domestic Key Money Market Indicator Changes Tracking Price Indicators - In June, as the quarter - end approached, the money price increased, and most of the average exchange repurchase rates rose. The monthly average values of R001, GC001, R007, and GC007 changed by - 6BP, 13BP, 2BP, and 4BP respectively [2][11][13] - The monthly average yields of 1 - year short - term bonds mostly declined. The monthly average yields of 1 - year Treasury bonds, 1 - year government - backed bonds, 1 - year AAA commercial paper, 1 - year AA commercial paper, 1 - year AA - commercial paper, 1 - year AAA negotiable certificates of deposit, and 1 - year AA+ negotiable certificates of deposit changed by - 6BP, - 1BP, 1BP, - 2BP, - 15BP, - 3BP, and - 3BP respectively [13][32] - The monthly average values of DR001 and DR007 in June both decreased slightly, with changes of - 11BP and - 2BP respectively compared to the previous month. The average 1 - day and 7 - day spreads between R and DR changed by 5BP and 4BP respectively compared to the previous month [18] - The average monthly interest rate of negotiable certificates of deposit decreased slightly in June. The interest rate of 1 - year high - grade and low - grade negotiable certificates of deposit both decreased by 3BP. The interest rate of negotiable certificates of deposit was higher than the 7 - day reverse repurchase rate, and the interest rate spread narrowed [27] - The 7 - day annualized yield of money funds decreased. The 7 - day average annualized yield of Yu'E Bao in June decreased slightly to 1.18%. The average 7 - day annualized yields of Yu'E Bao and the top ten money funds changed by - 8BP and - 4BP respectively compared to the previous month [33] Quantity Indicators - In June, the overnight trading volume and proportion in the inter - bank market both increased compared to the previous month, while those in the exchange market both decreased. The average daily trading volume of R001 in the inter - bank market in June was 6.82 trillion, accounting for 87.6%, and the trading volume and proportion of GC001 in the exchange market were 1.88 trillion and 86.6% respectively [38] - In June, the central bank actively injected liquidity, and the excess deposit reserve ratio increased compared to the previous month. The central bank injected 14,000 billion in outright reverse repurchases in two installments, with a net injection of 2000 billion. It also injected 5,539 billion in liquidity through open - market operations. Fiscal expenditures increased at the end of the quarter, and fiscal deposits decreased by 8,166 billion. The estimated excess deposit reserve ratio in June was 1.5% [42] - The year - on - year monthly average of the balance of bonds to be repurchased in the inter - bank and exchange markets increased compared to the previous month. The year - on - year balance of bonds to be repurchased in the inter - bank market in June increased by 10%, while that in the exchange market decreased by 3% [45] - The volatility index of the exchange overnight repurchase rate mostly increased slightly compared to the previous month. As of the end of June, V(R001) = 0.27, V(R007) = 0.28, V(GC001) = 0.34, and V(GC007) = 0.26 [49] Money Outlook Five - Channel Prediction - **M0**: In June, M0 increased seasonally by 569 billion. It is estimated that M0 will increase by 600 billion in July [56] - **Required Deposit Reserves**: In June, RMB loans increased significantly month - on - month, and financial institution deposits increased by 32,100 billion. It is expected that deposits will decrease by 4,000 billion in July, resulting in a decrease of 248 billion in required deposit reserves [57] - **Fiscal Deposits**: In June, the issuance of special Treasury bonds declined, and government expenditures at the half - year - end increased, resulting in a decrease of 8,166 billion in fiscal deposits. In July, the issuance of ultra - long - term special Treasury bonds will continue as planned, and the issuance of special refinancing bonds will slow down. It is expected that fiscal deposits will increase seasonally by 6,000 billion [60] - **Foreign Exchange Occupation**: Due to the suspension of Sino - US tariff negotiations and the impact on imports and exports, it is expected that foreign exchange occupation will decrease by 700 billion in July [65] - **Open Market Operations**: The central bank's attitude to maintain a stable and loose liquidity is clear. It is expected that the central bank will conduct net injections to maintain a loose money market. It is estimated that the central bank will conduct net injections of 4,000 billion through open - market operations and outright reverse repurchases in July. After comprehensively considering the five - channel changes, the estimated excess deposit reserve ratio in July is 1.3% [72] Main Conclusion - After the end of the quarter, the money market will loosen, and it is expected that the money market interest rates will decline seasonally in July. Historical data shows that in recent years, the volatility of the money market has decreased, and the inter - bank overnight repurchase rates mostly decline in July. The average monthly change of R001 in July in the past five years was - 9BP, and that of R007 was - 11BP [73][76]

Group 1: High-tech Manufacturing Index - The Guosen weekly high-tech manufacturing diffusion index A recorded -0.4, indicating a weakening trend[1] - The diffusion index B stood at 50.6, showing a decline from the previous period[1] - The semiconductor sector's prosperity increased, while aerospace, new energy, and pharmaceutical industries saw a downturn[1] Group 2: Price Trends - The price of 6-amino penicillanic acid decreased to 220 RMB/kg, down by 10 RMB/kg from last week[2] - The price of acrylonitrile fell to 8,150 RMB/ton, a decrease of 50 RMB/ton[2] - The price of dynamic random-access memory (DRAM) rose to $1.5080, an increase of $0.059[2] - The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate dropped to 49,800 RMB/ton, down by 80 RMB/ton[2] Group 3: Policy and Industry Developments - Shanghai issued a plan to build a world-class modern shipbuilding base by 2027, targeting an industry scale exceeding 120 billion RMB[2] - NVIDIA's CEO Jensen Huang visited China for the third time this year, announcing the re-approval of the H20 chip for sale[2] Group 4: Economic Indicators - Fixed asset investment cumulative year-on-year growth is at 2.80%[5] - Retail sales year-on-year growth for the month is at 4.80%[5] - Monthly export year-on-year growth is at 5.80%[5] - M2 money supply growth stands at 8.30%[5] Group 5: Risk Factors - Development and structural adjustments in high-tech manufacturing may lead to indicator failures[3] - Economic policies and industrial policy interventions pose risks[3] - Economic growth slowdown is a potential concern[3]

1、二季度，国内现价 GDP 约为 34.2 万亿元，不变价 GDP 同比增长 5.2%，较 一季度回落 0.2 个百分点； 2、二季度，第一、第二、第三产业现价 GDP 分别约为 1.9、12.7、19.5 万 亿元，不变价同比分别增长 3.8%、4.8%、5.7%； 3、二季度最终消费、资本形成总额、货物和服务净出口对 GDP 当季同比的 拉动分别为 2.7、1.3、1.2 个百分点，对 GDP 同比的贡献率分别为 52.3%、 24.7%、23.0%。 高位韧性彰显新旧动能转换，内需支撑中国经济稳健前行。 证券研究报告 | 2025年07月17日 宏观经济宏观季报 内需支撑中国经济稳健前行 2025 年 7 月 15-16 日国家统计局发布二季度 GDP 相关数据： 2025 年二季度，中国经济展现出强劲韧性，GDP 同比增长 5.2%，虽较一季度 小幅回落 0.2 个百分点，但仍显著高于全年目标及去年同期水平。二季度中 国经济增长动力呈现鲜明结构性特征：新经济部门持续发力，推动工业增加 值维持 6.2%的高位；而传统建筑业则深度调整，拖累第二产业增速下行。 需求侧呈现"内升外降"格局：资本形成总额对增 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating for Robinhood Markets (HOOD.O) [1][5] Core Insights - Robinhood is leading a transformation in the global financial system by integrating AI and expanding its product offerings, including the launch of tokenized stocks in the EU and the development of its own Layer 2 blockchain [2][3][4] - The company is positioned as a pioneer in the tokenization of real-world assets (RWA) and financial AI, which is expected to provide a first-mover advantage in the market [3][4] - Revenue projections for Robinhood are optimistic, with expected revenues of $4.14 billion, $5.53 billion, and $7.37 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, alongside net profits of $1.91 billion, $2.79 billion, and $3.97 billion for the same years [3] Summary by Sections Company Overview - Founded in 2013, Robinhood has established a significant user base by offering a mobile-first platform with zero-commission trading and fractional shares, appealing particularly to younger investors [4] - The company has evolved through various phases, including the introduction of zero-commission trading, product innovation, and the expansion into cryptocurrency trading [4][6] Business Model and Revenue Streams - Robinhood's revenue is primarily derived from trading activities, interest income, and subscription services, with trading income expected to reach $1.647 billion in 2024, accounting for 55.81% of total revenue [13][20] - The company has seen significant growth in cryptocurrency trading, with a 363.7% year-over-year increase in revenue from this segment [20] Product Offerings - The company offers a diverse range of products, including brokerage services, cryptocurrency trading, custodial services, and subscription services like Robinhood Gold [8][9] - Recent innovations include the launch of Robinhood Cortex, an AI investment assistant designed to help users identify investment opportunities and enhance trading strategies [53][54] Market Position and Growth Potential - Robinhood is capitalizing on the growing trend of payment for order flow (PFOF), which has seen its market share increase from 27.48% in 2020 to over 40% in Q1 2025 [35] - The company is also expanding its presence in the cryptocurrency market, with plans to enhance its offerings and integrate stablecoins like USDC into its platform [50][56] Management and Ownership - The founders of Robinhood maintain significant control over the company, with a combined voting power of 60.1% [10][12] - The management team has extensive experience in relevant fields, which is expected to support the company's growth in AI and financial services [10][12]

Group 1: Company Overview - Yili Group (600887.SH) is positioned as a leading dairy enterprise in China, focusing on high-quality transformation and platformization in the industry [7][9] - The company has shifted its development strategy from prioritizing market share to focusing on profit, enhancing its research and promotion of high-value products like adult milk powder [7][9] - Yili maintains a commitment to a dividend payout ratio of over 70%, making it a typical dividend yield asset in the food and beverage sector [7][9] Group 2: Industry Trends - The dairy product demand is experiencing a steady recovery, with a notable increase in health awareness among consumers since 2020, leading to a pulse-like growth in demand [8] - The industry is expected to face a supply-demand turning point by Q4 2025, as overcapacity issues are anticipated to be addressed through a reduction in dairy cattle numbers [8][9] - The dairy industry in China is entering a mature phase, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 1.61% from 2024 to 2028, reaching a market size of 611.7 billion yuan by 2028 [8] Group 3: Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for Yili Group are estimated at 119.34 billion yuan for 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 3.1%, and net profit projections of 11.31 billion yuan, reflecting a significant increase of 33.8% [10] - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is 1.78 yuan, with a reasonable price range of 33.8 to 35.6 yuan, indicating a potential upside of 23% to 30% from the current stock price [10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the electric equipment and new energy industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2][3]. Core Insights - The UK government has restarted subsidies for new energy vehicles and is supporting the construction of charging infrastructure, with a total investment plan of £63 million (approximately 600 million RMB) announced on July 13 [4]. - The GGII data indicates that in the first half of 2025, China's energy storage system and battery shipments are expected to continue to achieve high year-on-year growth, with emerging markets likely becoming significant export destinations for the energy storage industry [2][5]. Summary by Sections New Energy Vehicles - In the first half of 2025, cumulative sales of new energy vehicles in the UK reached 332,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 33%. The cumulative sales in nine European countries reached 1.3544 million units, up 26% year-on-year [4]. - The UK government announced a subsidy policy worth £650 million (approximately 6.2 billion RMB) to support the purchase of vehicles priced below £37,000 (approximately 355,000 RMB), effective from July 16, 2025, until the 2028-2029 fiscal year [4]. Energy Storage - According to GGII data, the shipment volume of energy storage systems is expected to reach 110 GWh in the first half of 2025, nearly matching the total for the entire year of 2024, with a year-on-year increase expected [5][7]. - The shipment volume of energy storage batteries in the first half of 2025 is projected to be 265 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 128%, with an expected total shipment of over 500 GWh for the entire year, reflecting a growth rate of nearly 50% [7][11]. Market Opportunities - Emerging markets are anticipated to become important export destinations for Chinese energy storage companies, with significant growth in energy storage installations expected in regions such as the Middle East, Southeast Asia, and Latin America [15][16]. - GGII forecasts that energy storage installations in Australia will reach 7 GWh in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 192%, while combined installations in the Middle East, Southeast Asia, South Asia, Latin America, and Africa are expected to reach 37 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 256% [16]. Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies in the battery segment include CATL and Yiwei Lithium Energy; in the materials and equipment segment, recommended companies include Keda Li, Zhongwei Co., Rongbai Technology, and Dangsheng Technology; in the charging pile segment, Shenghong Co. is recommended [3].