Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2][14]. Core Views - The company has released a strong mid-year performance forecast for 2025, expecting a net profit attributable to shareholders of 40-45 million yuan, a significant increase from a loss of 35.0024 million yuan in the same period last year, representing a year-on-year growth of 214.28% to 228.56% [3][4]. - The company plans to raise no more than 718 million yuan through a private placement to a major shareholder, which will be used to replenish working capital and repay bank loans [3][12]. - The increase in performance is attributed to cost reduction efforts, increased waste disposal volumes, and rising market prices for industrial-grade mixed oil due to EU policy impacts [4][5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company forecasts a net profit of 40-45 million yuan for mid-2025, compared to a loss of 35.0024 million yuan in the previous year, indicating a year-on-year growth of 214.28% to 228.56% [3][4]. - The expected net profit excluding non-recurring items is projected to be 36-41 million yuan, up from 162.43 thousand yuan last year, reflecting a growth of 2116.34% to 2424.16% [3][4]. Market Dynamics - The price of industrial-grade mixed oil (UCO) has reached a two-year high, driven by increased domestic demand and the upcoming shipping season, with prices touching 7600 yuan/ton in July 2025 [5][6]. - The domestic SAF (Sustainable Aviation Fuel) trial has begun, indicating a potential increase in demand for UCO, which may enhance its scarcity in the market [6]. Capital Raising and Shareholder Confidence - The company plans to issue shares to Shandong High-speed Industrial Investment Co., Ltd., with a subscription price of 5.13 yuan per share, raising up to 718 million yuan [12][13]. - The full cash subscription by the major shareholder reflects confidence in the company's future prospects and is expected to optimize the company's financial structure and reduce financial costs [13]. Future Earnings Forecast - The company maintains its earnings forecast, projecting net profits of 88 million yuan, 125 million yuan, and 145 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with growth rates of 576.3%, 41.3%, and 16.1% [14].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2][4][8] Core Views - The company's main brand saw low single-digit growth in retail sales for the second quarter, while the Saucony brand experienced over 30% growth [3][4] - The overall performance for the first half of the year aligns with the annual guidance, with stable discounts and inventory levels [4][5] - The management maintains the annual guidance, aiming for over 10% profit growth [6][8] Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In the second quarter, the main brand's retail sales growth was low single-digit year-on-year, with discounts ranging from 7.0 to 7.5 [3][5] - The Saucony brand's retail sales grew over 20% year-on-year, with a focus on reducing low-priced products in e-commerce to synchronize online and offline offerings [6][8] Financial Forecasts - The company expects net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 1.4 billion, 1.5 billion, and 1.6 billion respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 13.2%, 5.9%, and 7.7% [4][9] - Revenue projections for 2025 are set at 14.3 billion, with a growth rate of 5.4% [9] Market Positioning - The company is focusing on the running category to leverage its professional advantages, with expectations for steady growth in the main brand and rapid growth in professional sports brands like Saucony and Maile [4][8] - The management anticipates that the main brand will achieve stable growth in the mass market, while Saucony and Maile will target specific elite groups and outdoor markets for faster growth [4][8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View - The report presents some basic economic data including fixed - asset investment cumulative year - on - year at 2.80, social retail sales total monthly year - on - year at 4.80, export monthly year - on - year at 5.80, and M2 at 8.30 [4] Summary by Related Content Government Bond Net Financing - Government bond net financing was 303.4 billion yuan in the 28th week (7/7 - 7/13) and 208.4 billion yuan in the 29th week (7/14 - 7/20). As of the 28th week, the cumulative amount was 8.2 trillion yuan, exceeding the same period last year by 4.4 trillion yuan, mainly due to the misalignment of special bonds for replacing hidden debts and the rapid issuance of treasury bonds [1][7] General Deficit - The sum of treasury bond net financing and new local bond issuance was 271.6 billion yuan in the 28th week (7/7 - 7/13) and 247 billion yuan in the 29th week (7/14 - 7/20). As of the 28th week, the cumulative general deficit was 6.5 trillion yuan, with a progress of 54.5% [1][7] Treasury Bonds - Treasury bond net financing was 193.1 billion yuan in the 28th week (7/7 - 7/13) and 57.9 billion yuan in the 29th week (7/14 - 7/20). The total annual treasury bond net financing is 6.66 trillion yuan. As of the 28th week, the cumulative amount was 3.8 trillion yuan, with a progress of 56.7%, exceeding the same period in the past five years [8] Local Bonds - Local bond net financing was 110.2 billion yuan in the 28th week (7/7 - 7/13) and 150.5 billion yuan in the 29th week (7/14 - 7/20). As of the 28th week, the cumulative amount was 4.5 trillion yuan, exceeding the same period last year by 2.7 trillion yuan [1][10] New General Bonds - New general bonds issuance was 1.45 billion yuan in the 28th week (7/7 - 7/13) and 2.76 billion yuan in the 29th week (7/14 - 7/20). In 2025, the local deficit is 80 billion yuan. As of the 28th week, the cumulative amount was 46.65 billion yuan, with a progress of 58.3%, exceeding the same period last year [2][11][13] New Special Bonds - New special bonds issuance was 64 billion yuan in the 28th week (7/7 - 7/13) and 161.4 billion yuan in the 29th week (7/14 - 7/20). In 2025, the planned new special bonds are 4.4 trillion yuan. As of the 28th week, the cumulative amount was 2.2 trillion yuan, with a progress of 50.6%. Special new special bonds of 639.6 billion yuan have been issued, of which 174.8 billion yuan was issued in July, accounting for 44% of new special bonds. The 800 - billion - yuan quota may be issued by the third quarter. Land reserve special bonds of 224 billion yuan have been issued [2][15] Special Refinancing Bonds - Special refinancing bonds issuance was 28.6 billion yuan in the 28th week (7/7 - 7/13) and 0 billion yuan in the 29th week (7/14 - 7/20). As of the 28th week, the cumulative amount was 1.8 trillion yuan, with an issuance progress of 91% [2][26] Urban Investment Bonds - Urban investment bond net financing was 4.5 billion yuan in the 28th week (7/7 - 7/13) and is expected to be - 3.8 billion yuan in the 29th week (7/14 - 7/20). As of this week, the balance of urban investment bonds is about 10.3 trillion yuan [2][26]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the real estate industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2] Core Viewpoints - The real estate market continues to show signs of bottoming out, with marginal declines in housing prices in first-tier cities [3][4] - In June, the sales decline continued to expand, indicating a persistent downward trend in the market [5] - The overall investment and sales data for the first half of 2025 shows significant year-on-year declines across various metrics, including a 11.2% drop in real estate development investment and a 5.5% decrease in sales revenue [3][37] Summary by Relevant Sections Sales and Price Trends - In the first half of 2025, the total sales revenue of commercial housing was 44,241 billion yuan, down 5.5% year-on-year, with a sales area of 45,851 million square meters, down 3.5% [3][5] - The average selling price of new commercial housing in June was 9,634 yuan per square meter, down 5.6% year-on-year [20] Investment and Financing - Real estate development investment for the first half of 2025 was 46,658 billion yuan, a decrease of 11.2% year-on-year, while the funds available to real estate companies were 50,202 billion yuan, down 6.2% [3][37] - The decline in sales has significantly impacted the funding available to real estate companies, with pre-sales and personal mortgage loans also showing declines [37] Construction Activity - The area of new housing starts in the first half of 2025 was 30,364 million square meters, down 20.0% year-on-year, while the area of completed housing was 22,567 million square meters, down 14.8% [58] - Although the year-on-year decline in new starts has narrowed, the level remains low, indicating a continued downward trend in construction activity [58] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that companies with proactive land acquisition, high-quality land reserves, strong product capabilities, and sufficient risk clearance will stand out in the current market environment [4][70] - Recommended stocks include China Jinmao, China Resources Land, Greentown China, Beike-W, and Wo Ai Wo Jia [70]

The provided content does not contain any specific quantitative models or factors, nor does it include their construction processes, formulas, evaluations, or backtesting results. The documents primarily discuss market performance, sector and concept index movements, market sentiment, capital flows, ETF premiums/discounts, block trading discounts, and institutional activities. These are general market observations and statistics rather than detailed quantitative models or factor analyses.

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Anta Sports is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1] Core Views - Anta Sports Group achieved double-digit revenue growth in the first half of the year, with healthy and controllable discount inventory levels [1][4] - In Q2 2025, Anta's main brand recorded low single-digit growth, while FILA achieved mid-single-digit growth, and other brands saw a remarkable 50-55% growth [2][4] - The management maintains its annual guidance for all brands despite the overall market pressure [4][5] Summary by Sections Retail Performance - In Q2 2025, Anta's overall revenue growth was double digits, with FILA and other brands performing well. The main brand's low single-digit growth was impacted by channel adjustments [3][5] - The online discount levels were influenced by the extended 618 promotional period, and inventory levels remained healthy [3][5] Brand Performance - Anta's main brand recorded low single-digit revenue growth in Q2 2025, with a sell-through ratio of five months at the end of the quarter. The running shoe series performed exceptionally well [6][9] - FILA's revenue growth was in the mid-single digits, with strong performance in golf and tennis categories [9][14] - Other brands, particularly KOLON, saw revenue growth exceeding 70%, while Descente grew over 40% [10] Financial Forecasts - The forecast for Anta's net profit for 2025-2027 is estimated at 134.8 billion, 154.6 billion, and 170.0 billion respectively, with comparable profit growth rates of 13.0%, 14.7%, and 10.0% [4][15] - The reasonable valuation range is maintained at 113-118 HKD, corresponding to a 2025 PE of 22-23X [4][15]

证券研究报告 | 2025年07月16日 美国 6 月 CPI 数据点评 美国通胀温和上涨 经济研究·宏观快评 | 证券分析师： | 季家辉 | 021-61761056 | jijiahui@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980522010002 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 田地 | 0755-81982035 | tiandi2@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980524090003 | | 证券分析师： | 董德志 | 021-60933158 | dongdz@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980513100001 | 事项： 美东时间 7 月 15 日，美国劳工统计局发布 6 月 CPI 通胀数据：环比来看，整体 CPI 上涨 0.3%，核心 CPI 上涨 0.2%，分别较上月回升 0.2 和 0.1 个百分点。同比来看，整体 CPI 上涨 2.7%，核心 CPI 上涨 2.9%， 较上月回升 0.3 和 0.1 个百分点。 通胀走势：核心 CPI 通胀企稳 能源价格大幅反弹。6 月 CPI ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - The report constructs the Guoxin Risk - Aversion Index by synthesizing the price states of four major asset classes (stocks, bonds, commodities, and exchange rates) in the Chinese capital market using the diffusion index method. The index reflects the market's risk - off state, considering only the direction of asset price changes rather than the amplitude [1][11][12]. - The Guoxin Risk - Aversion Index has an obvious negative correlation with the macro - economic fundamentals. Economic fundamentals change first, followed by changes in the risk - aversion state of the capital market [2]. - The change in the week - on - week increase or decrease of the Guoxin Risk - Aversion Index leads the change of the fixed - base diffusion index, and it can be used to judge the possible inflection points of the overall index [38]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Construction of Guoxin Risk - Aversion Index - **Definition**: The report divides the assets in the capital market into risk assets and risk - aversion assets. It uses the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 Index to represent stock prices, the 10 - year Treasury bond interest rate for bond prices, the Nanhua Industrial Products Index for commodity prices, and the RMB - US dollar exchange rate for the exchange - rate market. The index is used to measure the market's risk pricing [11]. - **Compilation Method**: The report uses the diffusion index method to synthesize the price states of the four asset classes. It selects the weekly frequency for processing, starting from the first week of 2012 with an initial index value of 100. The rising index indicates a risk - off state in the capital market, and the falling index indicates a risk - on state [12]. 3.2 Relationship between Guoxin Risk - Aversion Index and Economic Fundamentals - **Relationship with Guoxin Macro - high - frequency Diffusion Index**: The Guoxin Macro - high - frequency Diffusion Index is a high - frequency tracking indicator for macro - economic growth. It uses seven high - frequency indicators to track representative industries weekly. Both the weekly and monthly comparisons show that the Guoxin Risk - Aversion Index has a negative correlation with the macro - economic fundamentals, and the macro - economic fundamentals lead the change of the risk - aversion index [22][23][30]. - **Relationship with GDP**: The Guoxin Risk - Aversion Index has a weak correlation with the constant - price quarterly year - on - year GDP, and a certain negative correlation with the current - price quarterly year - on - year GDP and the quarterly year - on - year GDP deflator. However, there are periods of deviation, indicating that the economic fundamentals lead the change of the risk - aversion index [36][37]. 3.3 Technical Analysis of Guoxin Risk - Aversion Index - The week - on - week increase or decrease of the Guoxin Risk - Aversion Index is a more sensitive indicator than the fixed - base index. By observing its change and the moving average, it is possible to judge the possible inflection points of the fixed - base index. The leading sensitivity is more significant on a monthly frequency [38][41].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to the company for the first time, with a reasonable valuation range of 33.80 to 35.60 CNY per share, indicating a potential premium of 23% to 30% over the current stock price of 27.38 CNY [5][4]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a leading platform-based dairy enterprise, transitioning towards high-quality growth and dividend-focused investment strategies. It has shifted from prioritizing market share to focusing on profitability, with a commitment to maintaining a dividend payout ratio of over 70% [1][13]. - The dairy industry is experiencing a stable recovery in demand, with a potential supply-demand inflection point expected by late 2025. The industry is projected to reach a scale of 611.7 billion CNY by 2028, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 1.61% from 2024 to 2028 [2][4]. - The company has a strong competitive advantage through its national brand and channel foundation, leading to cost efficiency and superior profitability compared to peers. It is actively expanding its product lines, including liquid milk, milk powder, and cheese, to sustain growth [3][4]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has established itself as the largest dairy producer in China, achieving over 100 billion CNY in revenue since 2021. It has transitioned its strategy to prioritize profit over market share, focusing on high-value products [1][24]. Market Trends - The dairy market is entering a mature phase, with a projected retail value of 560 billion CNY in 2024. The demand for liquid milk is expected to grow, while other segments like yogurt and dairy beverages face challenges [2][38]. Competitive Position - The company maintains a strong market position with significant brand recognition and distribution channels. It has consistently outperformed competitors in terms of profitability and market share, particularly in the liquid milk and milk powder segments [3][4]. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated at 119.34 billion CNY, 122.50 billion CNY, and 125.44 billion CNY, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 11.31 billion CNY, 12.22 billion CNY, and 13.15 billion CNY [4][5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the internet sector, indicating expected performance above the market index by over 10% [3][4][37]. Core Insights - The e-commerce industry remains highly competitive, with platforms continuing to offer discounts to merchants and increasing investments in food delivery and instant retail to seek new growth [2][33]. - In the AI sector, major companies are benefiting from business scenarios such as cloud computing and advertising, although short-term AI agent developments still require refinement [2][33]. - The Hang Seng Technology Index is currently in a period of fluctuation, with recommendations for defensive stocks like NetEase Cloud Music, Meitu, and Tencent Music, which are less correlated with macroeconomic conditions [2][33]. Company Dynamics - OpenAI has postponed the release of its open-source model for further safety testing, which was highly anticipated [18][19]. - Google acquired part of the technology and core team from Windsurf for up to $2.4 billion, enhancing its AI capabilities [20]. - Meta has fully acquired PlayAI to accelerate its voice AI strategy, with PlayAI's team joining a new department led by a former Google executive [21][22]. - Nvidia's market value has surpassed $4 trillion, with CEO Jensen Huang recently selling shares worth approximately $36.4 million [23]. - Tencent has upgraded its search functionality in its Yuanbao product, enhancing user experience with intelligent matching of images and videos [24][25]. - ByteDance's Feishu has launched several AI products, including a knowledge Q&A feature and AI meeting tools [26]. Underlying Technology - Microsoft introduced the Phi-4-mini model, designed for resource-constrained environments, enhancing privacy by allowing local execution [27]. - Google launched a new feature in its Gemini application that converts images to videos, showcasing advancements in multimodal AI [28]. - Alibaba has open-sourced its HumanOmniV2 multimodal reasoning model, improving the understanding of human emotions and intentions [29]. - Tencent released an upgraded version of its 3D-PolyGen model, capable of generating high-quality 3D content, significantly improving modeling efficiency [30]. Industry Policies - Shanghai's Economic and Information Technology Commission released a draft action plan to promote AI industry innovation from 2025 to 2027, focusing on key areas like large models and intelligent chips [31]. - The Guangdong Provincial Department of Industry and Information Technology held a meeting to accelerate AI infrastructure development and talent cultivation [32]. - Beijing's Science and Technology Commission published a plan for high-quality AI industry development, aiming to establish a leading AI innovation center [32].