证券研究报告 | 2025年11月23日 锂电产业链双周评（11月第2期） 锂电行业持续反内卷，固态电池产业化稳步推进 行业研究 · 行业周报 电力设备新能源 · 锂电池 投资评级：优于大市（维持） 证券分析师：王蔚祺 010-88005313 wangweiqi2@guosen.com.cn S0980520080003 证券分析师：徐文辉 021-60375426 xuwenhui@guosen.com.cn S0980524030001 证券分析师：李全 021-60375434 liquan2@guosen.com.cn S0980524070002 联系人：王喆萱 wangzhexuan@guosen.com.cn 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 投资建议 【行业动态】 【新能源车产业链数据】 【锂电材料及锂电池价格】 • 锂盐价格走高，电芯报价上行。本周末碳酸锂价格为9.23万元/吨，较两周前上涨1.19万元/吨。相较两周前，三元正极、磷酸铁锂正极、负极、六氟磷酸锂、电解液、湿法隔膜报价均上 涨。本周方形三元动力电芯/铁锂动力电芯/储能用100Ah电芯/储能用280Ah电芯报价为0. ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week (from November 17 to November 21, 2025), the median weekly return of stock - type ETFs was -4.57%. Among broad - based ETFs, the Shanghai 50 ETF had the smallest decline; among sector ETFs, the large - finance ETF had the smallest decline; among hot - topic ETFs, the bank ETF had the smallest decline [1][12][59]. - Last week, stock - type ETFs had a net subscription of 49.12 billion yuan. Among broad - based ETFs, the GEM - type ETF had the largest net subscription; among sector ETFs, the technology ETF had the largest net subscription; among theme ETFs, the pharmaceutical ETF had the largest net subscription [2][59]. - As of last Friday, Huaxia, E Fund, and Huatai - Peregrine were the top three fund companies in terms of the total scale of listed non - monetary ETFs. This week, GF CSI All - Index Food ETF and GF CSI A50 ETF will be issued [5][59]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs ETF Performance - Stock - type ETFs had a median weekly return of -4.57%. The median returns of Shanghai 50, CSI 300, A500, CSI 500, CSI 1000, Sci - tech Innovation Board, and GEM - type ETFs were -2.69%, -3.72%, -4.24%, -5.71%, -5.77%, -5.77%, and -6.01% respectively. The median returns of money - type, bond - type, commodity - type, and cross - border ETFs were 0.01%, 0.01%, -2.50%, and -4.87% respectively [12]. - Among sectors, the median returns of large - finance, technology, consumption, and cyclical sector ETFs were -4.42%, -4.43%, -5.31%, and -5.32% respectively. Among hot - topics, bank, liquor, and AI ETFs had median returns of -0.91%, -2.39%, and -2.53% respectively, showing relatively strong performance, while photovoltaic, new energy vehicle, and pharmaceutical ETFs had median returns of -11.19%, -8.28%, and -6.12% respectively, with relatively weak performance [15]. ETF Scale Change and Net Redemption/Subscription - As of last Friday, the scales of stock - type, cross - border, and bond - type ETFs were 3550.6 billion yuan, 921 billion yuan, and 718.8 billion yuan respectively. The scales of commodity - type and money - type ETFs were relatively small, at 230.5 billion yuan and 176.7 billion yuan respectively [17]. - Among broad - based ETFs, the CSI 300 and Sci - tech Innovation Board ETFs had relatively large scales of 1148.2 billion yuan and 201.8 billion yuan respectively. The scales of A500, Shanghai 50, CSI 500, GEM - type, and CSI 1000 ETFs were relatively small, at 189.4 billion yuan, 184.6 billion yuan, 171.4 billion yuan, 170.3 billion yuan, and 163.7 billion yuan respectively [17][20]. - Among sectors, the technology sector ETF had a scale of 404.9 billion yuan, followed by the cyclical sector ETF with a scale of 210.9 billion yuan. The large - finance and consumption ETFs had relatively small scales of 203.5 billion yuan and 186.9 billion yuan respectively. Among hot - topics, chip, securities, and pharmaceutical ETFs had the highest scales of 145.6 billion yuan, 139.4 billion yuan, and 102.1 billion yuan respectively [24]. - Last week, stock - type ETFs had a net subscription of 49.12 billion yuan and a total scale decrease of 115.443 billion yuan; money - type ETFs had a net subscription of 7.923 billion yuan and a total scale increase of 7.938 billion yuan. Among broad - based ETFs, the GEM - type ETF had the largest net subscription of 6.729 billion yuan, and its scale decreased by 4.125 billion yuan; the Shanghai 50 ETF had the smallest net subscription of 0.316 billion yuan, and its scale decreased by 4.83 billion yuan [27][28]. - Among sectors, the technology ETF had the largest net subscription of 5.694 billion yuan, and its scale decreased by 14.492 billion yuan; the large - finance ETF had the largest net redemption of 0.172 billion yuan, and its scale decreased by 8.739 billion yuan. Among hot - topics, the pharmaceutical ETF had the largest net subscription of 2.21 billion yuan, and its scale decreased by 3.886 billion yuan; the bank ETF had the largest net redemption of 1.849 billion yuan, and its scale decreased by 2.17 billion yuan [32]. ETF Benchmark Index Valuation - As of last Friday, the price - to - earnings ratios of Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000, GEM - type, and A500 ETFs were at the 84.67%, 80.38%, 94.64%, 93.90%, 54.82%, and 83.67% quantile levels respectively, and the price - to - book ratios were at the 66.20%, 62.90%, 92.00%, 51.11%, 46.83%, and 83.09% quantile levels respectively. Since December 31, 2019, the price - to - earnings and price - to - book ratios of Sci - tech Innovation Board - type ETFs are currently at the 83.51% and 67.19% quantile levels respectively. Compared with the previous week, the valuation quantiles of A500 and CSI 300 ETFs decreased significantly [35]. - As of last Friday, the price - to - earnings ratios of cyclical, large - finance, consumption, and technology sector ETFs were at the 69.33%, 35.53%, 19.62%, and 88.79% quantile levels respectively, and the price - to - book ratios were at the 65.79%, 58.78%, 21.60%, and 75.19% quantile levels respectively. Compared with the previous week, the valuation quantiles of large - finance, cyclical, and consumption ETFs decreased significantly [38]. - As of last Friday, the price - to - earnings quantiles of bank, dividend, and military - industry ETFs were relatively high, at 99.84%, 99.26%, and 93.16% respectively; the price - to - book quantiles of dividend, AI, and robot ETFs were relatively high, at 96.54%, 94.39%, and 89.78% respectively. Compared with the previous week, the valuation quantiles of pharmaceutical and new energy vehicle ETFs decreased significantly [39]. - Overall, among broad - based ETFs, the GEM - type ETF had relatively low valuation quantiles; among sectors, the consumption and large - finance ETFs had relatively moderate valuation quantiles; among sub - topics, the liquor ETF had relatively low valuation quantiles [40]. ETF Margin Trading - As of last Thursday, the margin trading balance of stock - type ETFs increased from 47.328 billion yuan in the previous week to 48.368 billion yuan, and the short - selling volume decreased from 2.681 billion shares in the previous week to 2.608 billion shares [44]. - Among the top 10 ETFs with the highest average daily margin trading purchase amount from last Monday to Thursday, the Sci - tech Innovation Board ETF and GEM - type ETF had relatively high average daily margin trading purchase amounts. Among the top 10 ETFs with the highest average daily short - selling volume, the A500 ETF and CSI 300 ETF had relatively high average daily short - selling volumes [45][49][52]. ETF Managers - As of last Friday, Huaxia Fund ranked first in the total scale of listed non - monetary ETFs, and had a relatively high management scale in multiple sub - fields such as scale index ETFs, theme, style, and strategy index ETFs, and cross - border ETFs. E Fund ranked second, with a relatively high management scale in scale index ETFs and cross - border ETFs. Huatai - Peregrine Fund ranked third, with a relatively high management scale in scale index ETFs and theme, style, and strategy index ETFs [53]. - Last week, 8 new ETFs were established, and this week, GF CSI All - Index Food ETF and GF CSI A50 ETF will be issued [56].

- The report does not contain any specific quantitative models or factors related to quantitative investment strategies[4][36][38]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, due to tight liquidity during the tax period and a sharp decline in the A - share market, the bond market fluctuated narrowly with slightly rising yields, and ultra - long bonds declined slightly. The trading activity of ultra - long bonds increased slightly and was very active. The term spread of ultra - long bonds remained flat, and the variety spread narrowed [1][3][10]. - As of November 21, the spread between 30 - year and 10 - year treasury bonds was 34BP, at a relatively low historical level. The spread between 20 - year CDB bonds and 20 - year treasury bonds was 13BP, at an extremely low historical position. Considering the economic situation and market sentiment, the probability of a bond market rebound is higher, and the spreads are expected to compress [2][3][11]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Weekly Review - **Ultra - long Bond Review**: Last week, tight tax - period liquidity, a sharp A - share decline led to a narrow - range bond market with slightly rising yields and a small decline in ultra - long bonds. Trading activity increased slightly and was very active. The term spread remained flat, and the variety spread narrowed [1][10]. - **Ultra - long Bond Investment Outlook** - **30 - year Treasury Bonds**: As of November 21, the 30 - 10 spread was 34BP. In October, economic downward pressure increased, with GDP growth at about 4.2% (down 1.1% from September), and deflation risks remained. The bond market is likely to rebound, and the 30 - 10 spread is expected to compress [2][11]. - **20 - year CDB Bonds**: As of November 21, the 20 - year CDB - treasury spread was 13BP. Similar to the 30 - year treasury bond situation, the bond market is likely to rebound, and the 20 - year CDB bond variety spread is expected to continue compressing [3][12]. - **Ultra - long Bond Basic Overview**: As of October 31, the balance of ultra - long bonds was 23.9 trillion, accounting for 15.0% of all bonds. Local government bonds and treasury bonds were the main varieties. By remaining term, the 30 - year variety had the highest proportion [13]. Primary Market - **Weekly Issuance**: Last week (November 17 - 21, 2025), ultra - long bond issuance decreased to 886 billion yuan. By variety, local government bonds were 811 billion, and bank sub - bonds were 65 billion. By term, 15 - year bonds were 395 billion, 20 - year were 191 billion, and 30 - year were 300 billion [18]. - **This Week's Planned Issuance**: This week's announced ultra - long bond issuance plan is 155 billion yuan, mainly including 153.8 billion yuan of ultra - long local government bonds [24]. Secondary Market - **Trading Volume**: Last week, ultra - long bond trading was very active, with a turnover of 926.1 billion yuan, accounting for 11.3% of all bonds. The trading activity increased slightly compared to the previous week [28]. - **Yield**: Last week, due to tight liquidity and A - share decline, bond yields rose slightly, and ultra - long bonds declined slightly. Yields of different - term treasury bonds, CDB bonds, local bonds, and railway bonds changed accordingly [38]. - **Spread Analysis** - **Term Spread**: Last week, the ultra - long bond term spread remained flat, with an absolute low level. The 30 - 10 treasury bond spread was 34BP, unchanged from the previous week, at the 14% percentile since 2010 [49]. - **Variety Spread**: Last week, the ultra - long bond variety spread narrowed, with an absolute low level. The 20 - year CDB - treasury spread and 20 - year railway - treasury spread decreased by 2BP, at the 11% and 12% percentiles since 2010 [50]. 30 - year Treasury Bond Futures - Last week, the 30 - year treasury bond futures main contract TL2512 closed at 115.57 yuan, down 0.51%. Trading volume increased slightly, and open interest decreased slightly [54].

Core Conclusions - The Asia-Pacific market experienced a "Black Friday" with significant declines primarily due to two factors: global liquidity expectations fluctuating and a sharp drop in sentiment observed through leveraged funds [1] - Historically, in bull markets, instances of breaking below the 60-day moving average are rare, and it typically takes about 10 days to recover. If a "time for space" strategy is needed, a maximum drawdown of around 15% can be tolerated, although current conditions differ from historical contexts [1][3] - Analyzing the recent bull market with over 2.5 times gains in specific sectors, a deviation of -1.5% from the logarithmic moving average is a favorable entry point, with a success rate of nearly 70% and an average gain exceeding 5% in the following month. Currently, the Science and Technology Innovation 50 and the ChiNext Index have not reached the -1.5% entry threshold, suggesting that the Science and Technology Innovation 50 may stabilize first during the pullback [1][4] Market Performance - The Asia-Pacific market faced widespread declines, with the A-share market's North China 50 and ChiNext Index dropping 9.04% and 6.15% respectively, significantly exceeding the declines in developed markets [2][10] - The overall performance of growth sectors, including electrolytes, lithium batteries, storage, photovoltaics, and rare earths, showed considerable pressure, with the number of rising and falling stocks converging to the second-lowest point of the year [2][12] Liquidity and Sentiment - The core driver of market adjustments is the significant volatility in global liquidity expectations, influenced by hawkish signals from multiple Federal Reserve officials and rising Japanese bond yields, which have tightened liquidity and increased selling pressure on risk assets [20][26] - The market sentiment has cooled significantly, with high-leverage investors showing a marked decline in activity, leading to direct selling pressure and amplifying market volatility [26] Bull Market Dynamics - Historical data indicates that in the past 30 years, there have been 59 instances of breaking below the 60-day moving average during bull markets, with an average recovery time of 11.1 days. Approximately one-third of these instances saw immediate recovery the next day [3][30] - The success rates for recovery at various time intervals (T+5, T+20, T+60, T+120) are 67.8%, 59.3%, 84.7%, and 83.1% respectively, indicating a generally favorable outlook for recovery in bull market conditions [30][31] Entry Points for Investment - The analysis suggests that a logarithmic moving average deviation of -1.5% is a high-probability entry point for investment, with a historical success rate of 68.15% and an average return of 5.71% for specific sectors during the 2019-2021 bull market [4][41] - Currently, the Science and Technology Innovation 50 and ChiNext Index are close to breaking below the exponential moving average of 60, but have not yet reached the -1.5% threshold, indicating potential for stabilization in the near term [47]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Baidu Group is "Outperform the Market" [7] Core Insights - Baidu Group reported a total revenue of 31.2 billion yuan in Q3 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 7%. The adjusted net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.8 billion yuan, down 36% year-on-year, with a net profit margin of 12% [1][10] - The company experienced a significant impairment loss of approximately 16 billion yuan due to the rapid enhancement of high-performance computing capabilities, which is expected to mark a low point for profit margins, with future improvements anticipated [1][10] - Advertising revenue faced pressure, declining 18% year-on-year to 15.3 billion yuan, accounting for 62% of Baidu's core revenue. The company is accelerating its transition to AI search, with 70% of search result pages now containing AI-generated content [2][16] Revenue Breakdown - Baidu's AI new business revenue reached 10 billion yuan, with AI high-performance computing facility subscription revenue increasing by 128% year-on-year. The AI business is divided into three segments: 1. Intelligent Cloud Infrastructure: Revenue of 4.2 billion yuan, up 33% year-on-year 2. AI Applications: Revenue of 2.6 billion yuan, up 6% year-on-year 3. AI Native Marketing Services: Revenue of 2.8 billion yuan, a strong growth of 262% year-on-year, representing 18% of Baidu's core online marketing revenue [3][25] - The company expects adjusted net profits for 2025-2027 to be 19.6 billion, 21.6 billion, and 24.6 billion yuan, respectively, with a downward adjustment of 7%, 11%, and 12% [29] Financial Forecasts - The financial forecasts for Baidu Group indicate a slight decline in revenue for 2025, with total revenue projected at 130.4 billion yuan, a decrease of 2% year-on-year. Adjusted net profit is expected to drop to 19.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 27.4% [5][33] - Key financial metrics include an adjusted EPS of 7.13 yuan for 2025 and a projected P/E ratio of 14.9 [5][33]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report regularly tracks the latest private exchangeable bond (Private EB) projects from public channels, focusing on basic elements. It reminds that private issuance terms and processes may change, and the final prospectus should be referred to. The issuance progress should be consulted with relevant lead underwriters. [1] 3. Summary by Directory Newly Added Project Information - From November 17 - 21, 2025, the private exchangeable bond project of Guangdong Shengyi Technology Co., Ltd. for private placement to professional investors in 2025 was approved by the exchange, with an intended issuance scale of 2 billion yuan. The underlying stock is Shengyi Electronics (688183.SH), and the lead underwriter is CITIC Securities. The exchange update date is November 17, 2025. [1] Project Status Table - Multiple private exchangeable bond projects are listed in the table, including their bond names, lead underwriters, scales, underlying stocks, project statuses, and update dates. Projects are in either "Passed" or "Feedback Received" status. For example, the project of Hangzhou Iron & Steel Group Co., Ltd. has a scale of 1 billion yuan, and the underlying stock is Hangzhou Iron & Steel Co., Ltd., with a passed status as of November 7, 2025. [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the week from November 17 - 21, 2025, the stock market oscillated downward due to factors like geopolitical tensions, concerns about overseas AI bubbles, and weakening interest - rate cut expectations. The bond market had a narrow - range oscillation. The convertible bond market mostly declined, with the CSI Convertible Bond Index down 1.78% for the week, the price median down 1.89%, and the arithmetic average parity down 6.70%. The overall market conversion premium rate increased by 7.72% compared to the previous week [1][8][9]. - During the period from November 24 - 28, 2025, the convertible bond market showed strong resilience during the A - share adjustment. Fed officials' dovish signals may improve market sentiment, and the convertible bond asset prices have strong bottom support. Attention should be paid to sectors such as energy storage, power, semiconductor equipment and materials, photovoltaic, and chemical industries, and high - volatility underlying stocks in balanced convertible bonds or low - premium equity - biased individual bonds should be selected [2][18]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Trends - **Stock Market**: In the week from November 17 - 21, 2025, the market oscillated downward. All Shenwan primary industries closed down. Banks (-0.89%), media (-1.25%), food and beverage (-1.44%), national defense and military industry (-1.72%), and household appliances (-2.30%) performed relatively well, while power equipment (-10.54%), comprehensive (-9.18%), basic chemicals (-7.47%), and commercial retail (-7.24%) performed poorly [8][9]. - **Bond Market**: At the beginning of the week, the capital was tight, and it became balanced and loose in the second half of the week. The bond market had a narrow - range oscillation, and the 10 - year Treasury bond rate closed at 1.82% on Friday, up 0.26bp from the previous week [1][9]. - **Convertible Bond Market**: Most convertible bond individual bonds declined. The CSI Convertible Bond Index was down 1.78% for the week, the price median was down 1.89%, and the arithmetic average parity was down 6.70%. The overall market conversion premium rate increased by 7.72% compared to the previous week. The total trading volume of the convertible bond market last week was 318.036 billion yuan, with an average daily trading volume of 63.607 billion yuan, a decrease from the previous week [1][9][16]. Valuation Overview - As of November 21, 2025, for equity - biased convertible bonds, the average conversion premium rates in different price ranges are at relatively high percentile values. For debt - biased convertible bonds, the average YTM of those with a parity below 70 yuan is -4.27%, at the 1%/4% percentile since 2010/2021. The average implied volatility of all convertible bonds is 46.1%, at the 93%/99% percentile since 2010/2021 [19]. Primary Market Tracking - **Last Week (November 17 - 21, 2025)**: Maolai Convertible Bond was announced for issuance, and Qizhong Convertible Bond was listed. Maolai Convertible Bond has a scale of 563 million yuan, and Qizhong Convertible Bond has a scale of 850 million yuan [27][28]. - **Next Week (November 24 - 28, 2025)**: Zhuomei Convertible Bond is expected to be listed, with a scale of 450 million yuan [29][30]. - **Approval Progress**: Last week, 2 companies including Aohong Electronics and Pulian Software got registration approval, 1 company including Chunfeng Power passed the listing committee review, 4 companies including Haoneng Co., Ltd. passed the general meeting of shareholders, and 1 company including Zhaomin Technology had a board of directors' plan. As of now, there are 95 convertible bonds to be issued, with a total scale of 143.93 billion yuan [31].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][33] Core Insights - The company's revenue for Q3 2025 reached 35.6 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year growth of 14% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1%. Adjusted net profit was 4.99 billion RMB, up 26% year-on-year [10][4] - The company is focusing on AI to drive growth in its core business, with significant advancements in its AI video product, Keling, which achieved quarterly revenue exceeding 300 million RMB [4][32] - The company has improved its gross margin to 55.1%, primarily due to enhanced server efficiency and reduced content costs [10][4] Financial Performance - Q3 2025 revenue breakdown: Domestic revenue was 34.4 billion RMB (up 15% YoY), while overseas revenue was 1.15 billion RMB (down 13% YoY) [10][4] - The adjusted profit margin for Q3 2025 was 14.0%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.3 percentage points [10][4] - Research and development expenses for Q3 2025 were 3.7 billion RMB, an 18% increase year-on-year [10][4] User Engagement Metrics - The total monthly active users (MAU) for Q3 2025 was 731 million, a 2% increase year-on-year, while daily active users (DAU) reached 416 million, also up 2% year-on-year [2][17] - The average daily usage time per user was 134 minutes, reflecting a 1% increase year-on-year [2][17] Commercialization Efforts - E-commerce gross merchandise volume (GMV) grew by 15% year-on-year, with revenue from live e-commerce increasing by 41% [3][23] - Advertising revenue for Q3 2025 was 20.1 billion RMB, up 14% year-on-year, driven by advancements in AI technology [3][28] - Live streaming revenue reached 9.6 billion RMB, showing a 3% year-on-year increase [3][28] Future Outlook - The company has raised its revenue forecast for Keling to 1 billion RMB for the year, driven by successful AI advancements [4][32] - The adjusted profit projections for 2025-2027 are 20.7 billion RMB, 23.5 billion RMB, and 26.6 billion RMB respectively [4][33]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the communication industry, indicating expected performance above the market benchmark by over 10% [49]. Core Insights - NVIDIA reported a record revenue of $57.006 billion for FY2026 Q3, with a year-on-year growth of 62% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 22%, driven by strong demand in the AI sector [11][12]. - Google's Gemini 3.0 series was launched, showcasing advancements in deep reasoning and agent capabilities, outperforming previous models in various benchmarks [13][16]. - The optical cable export data for October 2025 showed a significant month-on-month growth of 26.14%, reflecting a sustained high demand in the industry [24]. Summary by Sections Industry News Tracking - NVIDIA's FY2026 Q3 revenue reached $57.006 billion, with data center revenue at $51.2 billion, marking a 62% year-on-year increase and a 22% quarter-on-quarter increase [11][12]. - Google's Gemini 3.0 series introduces a "Deep Think" mode, enhancing its ability to handle complex reasoning tasks, achieving notable scores in various benchmarks [13][16]. - Optical cable exports from China to the U.S. in October 2025 totaled 520 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 61.02% and a month-on-month increase of 26.14% [24]. Investment Recommendations - Continuous focus on AI computing infrastructure development is advised, with recommendations to monitor companies involved in optical devices, communication equipment, and liquid cooling technologies [46]. - The three major telecom operators are highlighted as important assets for dividend allocation, with stable operations and increasing dividend payouts [46]. Market Performance Review - The communication sector index decreased by 2.51%, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index fell by 3.77%, resulting in a relative return of 1.26% [36]. - Among sub-sectors, optical devices/chips and operators showed relatively better performance, with specific stocks like Tengjing Technology and Dekeli leading in gains [39].