Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The recovery of sales for NVIDIA's H20 chip is expected to clear inventory and boost capital expenditure (Capex) among domestic cloud providers, leading to increased demand in the cloud sector [3][4] - The introduction of the H20 chip, which is a compliant version tailored for the Chinese market, is anticipated to significantly reduce the time and costs associated with hardware investment and actual usage, accelerating the transition of domestic enterprises to cloud services [4][5] Summary by Relevant Sections AI Chip Computing Layer - The resumption of H20 sales will lead to inventory clearance and increased capital expenditure, with the potential for continued positive Capex growth if the supply of special GPUs proceeds smoothly [3][5] - The H20 chip, while having reduced performance compared to the H100, remains a primary choice for domestic AI developers due to its compatibility with the CUDA ecosystem [5][6] - The expected inventory loss related to H20 is projected to reach around $4.5 billion, with total inventory recovery potentially exceeding $10 billion [6] Domestic Cloud Providers - Domestic cloud providers maintained high growth rates in Q2, with expectations for accelerated growth in the second half of the year as customer solutions are implemented [9][10] - The recovery of H20 supply is expected to significantly increase capital expenditure among domestic cloud providers, positively impacting downstream demand [9][10] - Despite a slight decrease in the number of AI customers in Q2, the penetration rate of scenarios continues to improve, indicating a robust growth trajectory for cloud services [9] AI Model Layer - The second quarter saw a concentration of model development among leading domestic tech firms, which are rapidly catching up to international standards and fostering an open-source ecosystem [13][17] - Major companies like Alibaba, ByteDance, Tencent, and Baidu are actively enhancing their AI models and tools, contributing to a vibrant AI ecosystem [15][16][17]

证券研究报告 | 2025年07月16日 中央城市工作会议快评 城市发展迈入新阶段 经济研究·宏观解读 | 证券分析师： | 田地 | 0755-81982035 | tiandi2@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980524090003 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 董德志 | 021-60933158 | dongdz@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980513100001 | | 联系人： | 王奕群 | | wangyiqun1@guosen.com.cn | | 事项： 解读： 城市工作会议由来已久，本次是第五次。第一次是 1962 年在北戴河举行的第一次全国城市工作会议，主 要讨论城市基本定位与问题，背景是大规模工业化带来的城市人口迅速扩张带来生活等用品供给不足，会 议的主要指示是集中力量组织生产。 表1：历次城市工作会议梳理 | 年份 | 会议 | 简介 | 背景 | 主要内容 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 《关于当前城市工作若干问题的指示》：已经 ...

Group 1: Shipping Industry - The shipping industry is expected to see a divergence in freight rates, with crude oil rates softening while refined oil rates are recovering, indicating a potential bottoming out of oil shipping rates during the summer [1] - The current supply-demand dynamics suggest that marginal changes in demand could have a multiplier effect on freight rates, leading to a recommendation for companies like COSCO Shipping Energy and China Merchants Energy [1] - The container shipping sector is facing pressure on profitability due to ongoing tariff policies and a subdued economic outlook in Europe and the US, with a recommendation to monitor COSCO Shipping Holdings for potential alpha opportunities [1][2] Group 2: Aviation Industry - The aviation sector has entered the peak summer travel season, with domestic flight volumes increasing by 3.1% compared to the previous week, and overall flight volumes reaching 112.3% of 2019 levels [2] - The average ticket price for domestic routes has decreased by 6.6% year-on-year, while the passenger load factor has improved by 1.4 percentage points to 84.1% [2] - Investment recommendations include closely tracking ticket price performance during the summer peak and considering opportunities in airlines such as Air China, China Eastern Airlines, and Spring Airlines [2][5] Group 3: Express Delivery Industry - The "anti-involution" policy released on July 1 aims to curb excessive competition in the express delivery sector, which is currently characterized by severe price competition [3] - The introduction of unmanned logistics vehicles is expected to significantly reduce costs for leading companies like SF Express and ZTO Express, with potential cost savings of approximately 2000 yuan per vehicle per month for SF Express [3][4] - Investment recommendations focus on SF Express due to its strong recovery in revenue growth and cost-saving measures, while also monitoring ZTO Express and Yunda Holdings for potential opportunities [3][5][6] Group 4: Overall Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on domestic demand and high-dividend sectors, recommending companies with stable operations and controllable risks, including SF Express, ZTO Express, and China Southern Airlines [5] - The express delivery sector is projected to maintain a growth rate of 21.5% for the year, driven by strong demand from e-commerce platforms [6] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring price changes and the stability of franchisees in the express delivery industry to capitalize on the effects of the "anti-involution" policy [6]

Macro and Strategy - June financial data shows a significant rebound in credit, with new social financing reaching 4.20 trillion yuan, exceeding expectations of 3.71 trillion yuan, and new RMB loans at 2.24 trillion yuan, surpassing the forecast of 1.84 trillion yuan [8][9][10] - The M2 money supply grew by 8.3% year-on-year, indicating a recovery in domestic economic momentum as private sector balance sheet expansion improves [8][9] - The "seesaw effect" between government financing and corporate loans has weakened, suggesting a shift in credit dynamics as local governments approach their annual debt targets [9][10] Retail Industry - The jewelry market is projected to grow steadily, with the market size reaching 728 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 3.6% since 2019 [11][12] - The top five companies in the jewelry sector hold a market share of 41.4%, indicating increasing industry concentration as consumer preferences shift towards quality and design [11][12] - The retail sector is benefiting from the recent Amazon Prime Day, which generated an estimated $24.1 billion in sales, a 30% increase year-on-year, highlighting the growth potential in cross-border e-commerce [13][14] Food and Beverage Industry - The food and beverage sector saw a 0.92% increase, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.17 percentage points [14] - The liquor market is stabilizing, with major brands focusing on brand positioning and market health, while the overall demand remains under pressure [15][16] - Recommendations include leading brands like Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye, which have shown resilience and potential for recovery [15][16] Construction and Building Materials - The construction materials sector is expected to improve due to a shift towards healthy competition and urban renewal initiatives, with a focus on technological innovation [17][18] - Cement prices have stabilized, with a slight decrease of 0.4% week-on-week, while demand remains steady despite seasonal fluctuations [17][18] - Recommendations include companies like Three Trees and China National Building Material, which are well-positioned to benefit from domestic demand [18] Computer Industry - The AI ASIC market is rapidly expanding, with a projected market size growth from $14.8 billion in 2024 to $83.8 billion by 2030, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 33.5% [19][20] - The price advantage of AI ASIC chips over GPUs is significant, with average prices of $5,236 compared to $8,001 for GPUs, making them more attractive for specific applications [19][20] - Companies like Google and Amazon are accelerating their development of ASIC chips, indicating strong future demand in this sector [21] Home Appliances - The home appliance sector is experiencing stable growth in domestic sales, driven by government subsidies, while exports face challenges due to high bases and tariff impacts [22][23] - White goods are seeing a slight increase in domestic sales, with air conditioning units showing a 9.5% growth in domestic shipments [22][23] - Recommendations include leading brands such as Midea and Gree, which are expected to maintain strong performance [22][23] Pharmaceutical Industry - Merck's acquisition of Verona for $10 billion aims to enhance its portfolio with a new COPD treatment, indicating strong growth potential in respiratory therapies [27][28] - WuXi AppTec is projected to achieve a 102% increase in net profit for the first half of 2025, reflecting robust operational performance [29] - The pharmaceutical sector is showing resilience, with a focus on innovative treatments and strategic acquisitions [27][28] Coal Industry - The coal market is expected to stabilize as domestic production increases and imports decrease, with a projected production of 4.85 billion tons in 2025, a 2% increase year-on-year [31][32] - Demand for coal is anticipated to improve in the second half of the year, particularly for non-electric uses such as chemical production [33] - Recommendations include leading coal companies like China Shenhua and China Coal Energy, which are well-positioned to benefit from market dynamics [34] Electronics Industry - The electronics sector is experiencing positive momentum, with a 0.93% increase in stock performance, driven by strong demand in the optical and semiconductor segments [34] - The industry is expected to see significant catalysts in the coming months, particularly in the context of AI and cloud computing advancements [34] - Companies involved in ASIC development are likely to benefit from the ongoing trends in computing and data processing [34]

Economic Growth - In the first half of 2025, China's GDP reached 660,536 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.3%[1] - In June, the industrial added value above designated size grew by 6.8% year-on-year, accelerating by 1.0 percentage points from May[1] - The total retail sales of consumer goods in June amounted to 42,287 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.8%, down 1.6 percentage points from May[1] Investment and Consumption - From January to June, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) was 248,654 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2.8%, down 0.9 percentage points from January to May[1] - In June, the month-on-month growth of fixed asset investment was only 0.5%, a significant drop of 2.4 percentage points from May[12] - The decline in consumption was particularly pronounced in the catering sector, where growth plummeted from 5.9% in May to 0.9% in June[15] Trade and Employment - In June, the total import and export volume reached 38,527 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.2%, including exports of 23,394 billion yuan, up 7.2%[1] - The urban surveyed unemployment rate in June remained stable at 5.0%, consistent with the previous month and the same month last year[16] - The export growth rate in June was 5.8%, significantly higher than the expected 3.2%[40]

Core Insights - The report maintains an "outperform" rating for the retail sector, emphasizing resilience in new consumption patterns driven by product innovation and strategic adjustments [1] - The overall retail sales in China for the first five months of 2025 reached 20.32 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.0%, indicating a stable growth trend in consumer spending [4][8] - The report highlights structural growth opportunities in specific segments such as cosmetics, gold jewelry, and pet products, driven by innovative product offerings and enhanced consumer insights [4][23] Investment Summary - The report recommends several companies within the beauty and personal care sector, including 登康口腔, 若羽臣, and 毛戈平, which are expected to benefit from product innovation and brand expansion [4] - In the gold jewelry sector, companies like 老铺黄金 and 潮宏基 are highlighted for their ability to leverage craftsmanship and rising gold prices to meet consumer demand for both investment and personal enjoyment [4] - The report also identifies opportunities in the cross-border e-commerce sector, with companies like 小商品城 and 安克创新 positioned to adapt to changing tariff policies and enhance their operational resilience [4] Industry Review - The first half of 2025 saw a stable growth in retail, with essential goods like food and beverages showing strong performance, while discretionary categories like cosmetics and apparel experienced varied growth rates [8][20] - The beauty sector recorded a 4.1% year-on-year increase in retail sales, while gold jewelry sales surged by 12.3%, benefiting from a low base effect and high gold prices [23][4] - The report notes that the online retail sector continues to grow, with a year-on-year increase of 8.5% in online sales, indicating a shift in consumer purchasing behavior towards digital platforms [20][4] Future Outlook - The report anticipates that product innovation driven by AI and emotional value will be key to differentiating brands in the retail space, with companies encouraged to leverage these trends for growth [60][65] - Policy measures aimed at stimulating domestic consumption are expected to further enhance consumer spending power, particularly in sectors like childcare, employment, and elderly care [60][4] - The report emphasizes the importance of adapting to external market conditions, including tariff negotiations, which could impact the performance of cross-border e-commerce companies [60][29]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the electronic industry [1][10]. Core Views - The electronic industry's prosperity is validated by financial reports, with expectations for a series of catalysts ahead. The sector has shown resilience with a 0.93% increase, while sub-sectors like optical optoelectronics rose by 1.34% [1][11]. - The AI infrastructure development is highlighted as a key growth opportunity, with companies like Nvidia leading the way, and a strong focus on AI-related investments is recommended [2][7]. - The launch of the LPDDR6 memory standard is expected to create new opportunities in edge storage solutions, enhancing performance for AI terminals and edge computing [4]. - The PCB industry is experiencing a significant uptrend, with leading companies like XinXing Electronics reporting strong revenue growth driven by AI server architecture upgrades [5][7]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.09%, while the electronic sector increased by 0.93%. The optical optoelectronics sub-sector performed particularly well with a 1.34% rise [1][11]. AI and Infrastructure - Nvidia's market capitalization surpassed $4 trillion, marking a historic milestone, and the company is entering a decade-long AI infrastructure development cycle [2]. - The report emphasizes the importance of AI infrastructure as a high-growth investment theme, recommending companies involved in this space [2]. Product Innovations - Xiaomi's AI glasses have sold over 80,000 units, exceeding internal expectations, and the company is planning the next generation of these products [3]. - The LPDDR6 memory standard was released, promising significant improvements in bandwidth and power efficiency, which will benefit AI applications [4]. Company Performance - XinXing Electronics reported a revenue of 32.466 billion New Taiwan Dollars for Q2 2025, marking a 16.46% year-on-year increase, attributed to the demand for AI server upgrades [5]. - Huadian Holdings and other major companies are expected to benefit from the growing demand for high-end PCBs driven by AI computing needs [7]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends a focus on companies such as Industrial Fulian, Xiaomi Group, and others within the semiconductor and electronic sectors, anticipating strong performance driven by macroeconomic policies and AI innovations [1][10].

Quantitative Models and Factors Summary Quantitative Models and Construction Methods Model 1: Index Dividend Point Estimation Model - **Model Name**: Index Dividend Point Estimation Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model aims to estimate the dividend points of index components to accurately calculate the futures basis and premium/discount levels by considering the impact of dividends on index points[12][39] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. **Component Stock Weight**: Adjust the weight of component stocks from the last disclosed date to the current date using the formula: $$ W_{n,t} = \frac{w_{i0} \times (1 + r_{n})}{\sum_{i=1}^{N} w_{i0} \times (1 + r_{n})} $$ where \( w_{i0} \) is the weight on the last disclosed date, and \( r_{n} \) is the non-adjusted return of the stock[45] 2. **Net Profit Prediction**: Use historical net profit distribution to dynamically predict the annual net profit of the company. If the company has disclosed annual reports or performance forecasts, use the disclosed data; otherwise, estimate based on historical data[47][50] 3. **Dividend Payout Ratio Prediction**: Use historical dividend payout ratios to estimate the current year's payout ratio. If the company has not disclosed the dividend amount, estimate it using the predicted net profit and historical payout ratio[51] 4. **Ex-Dividend Date Prediction**: Predict the ex-dividend date based on historical intervals between announcement and ex-dividend dates using linear extrapolation[55] 5. **Dividend Points Calculation**: Calculate the dividend points using the formula: $$ \text{Dividend Points} = \sum_{n=1}^{N} \left( \frac{\text{Dividend Amount}}{\text{Total Market Value}} \times \text{Component Weight} \times \text{Index Closing Price} \right) $$ where the ex-dividend date should be greater than the current date and less than or equal to the futures contract expiration date[39] - **Model Evaluation**: The model shows high accuracy in predicting dividend points for major indices like the SSE 50 and CSI 300, with minor deviations for the CSI 500 index[57][61] Model Backtesting Results - **Index Dividend Point Estimation Model**: - **SSE 50 Index**: Prediction error within 5 points[61] - **CSI 300 Index**: Prediction error within 5 points[61] - **CSI 500 Index**: Prediction error within 10 points[61] Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods Factor 1: Realized Dividend Yield - **Factor Name**: Realized Dividend Yield - **Factor Construction Idea**: Calculate the realized dividend yield of index components to monitor the dividend progress and remaining yield for the year[3][17] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. **Realized Dividend Yield Calculation**: $$ \text{Realized Dividend Yield} = \sum_{i=1}^{N_{1}} \left( \frac{\text{Dividend Amount}}{\text{Total Market Value}} \times \text{Component Weight} \right) $$ where \( N_{1} \) is the number of companies that have paid dividends[17] 2. **Remaining Dividend Yield Calculation**: $$ \text{Remaining Dividend Yield} = \sum_{i=1}^{N_{2}} \left( \frac{\text{Dividend Amount}}{\text{Total Market Value}} \times \text{Component Weight} \right) $$ where \( N_{2} \) is the number of companies that have not yet paid dividends[17] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor provides a clear view of the dividend progress and remaining potential dividends for the year, aiding in investment decisions[3][17] Factor Backtesting Results - **Realized Dividend Yield**: - **SSE 50 Index**: Realized yield 1.80%, remaining yield 0.46%[3] - **CSI 300 Index**: Realized yield 1.35%, remaining yield 0.53%[3] - **CSI 500 Index**: Realized yield 1.09%, remaining yield 0.20%[3] - **CSI 1000 Index**: Realized yield 0.83%, remaining yield 0.12%[3]

- The report does not contain any specific quantitative models or factors for analysis[1][2][3] - The report provides a detailed analysis of market performance, including indices, sector performance, and concept themes[2][6][7][9] - Market sentiment is analyzed through the number of stocks hitting daily price limits, with 51 stocks hitting the upper limit and 28 hitting the lower limit[12][13] - The report includes data on market fund flows, specifically the balance of margin trading and short selling, which stood at 18,854 billion yuan as of July 14, 2025[18][21] - ETF premium and discount rates are discussed, with the highest premium being 5.22% for the Guozheng 2000 ETF and the highest discount being 0.84% for the ChiNext Pharmaceutical ETF[23][24] - Block trading data is provided, showing an average discount rate of 5.77% over the past six months, with a daily trading amount of 11 billion yuan on July 14, 2025[25][26] - The report also covers the annualized discount rates of major stock index futures, with the Shanghai 50 index futures having an annualized discount rate of 2.47% on July 15, 2025[27][30] - Institutional attention and trading data are included, highlighting the stocks with the highest net inflows and outflows from institutional seats and Northbound trading[4][34][35]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Tencent Holdings is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2][6][23] Core Views - Tencent is expected to achieve a revenue growth of 12% and an adjusted net profit growth of 13% in Q2 2025. The network advertising revenue is projected to grow by 18%, while the gaming business, particularly evergreen games, is performing well [4][7][16] - The financial technology and enterprise services segment is expected to see a slight acceleration in revenue growth, projected at 8% year-on-year [5][17] - The company is well-positioned for long-term growth, particularly in areas like WeChat e-commerce and AI-driven services, which are not fully reflected in current profit forecasts [6][23] Summary by Sections Financial Performance Expectations - For Q2 2025, Tencent's total revenue is expected to reach 1801 billion, reflecting a 12% year-on-year increase. The adjusted net profit is anticipated to be 645 billion, also a 13% increase [7][10] - The gaming segment is projected to generate 560 billion in revenue, a 15% increase year-on-year, with domestic game revenue expected to grow by 16% [4][13] - The advertising revenue is forecasted to be 352 billion, marking an 18% increase year-on-year, driven by AI enhancements and inventory release [4][16] Business Segment Insights - The gaming business is showing strong performance, with established games maintaining growth and new titles like "Delta Force" achieving success in overseas markets [4][13] - The financial technology and enterprise services segment is expected to generate 545 billion in revenue, with a focus on payment services linked to offline consumption [5][17] Long-term Growth Potential - The report highlights Tencent's natural advantages in user engagement and scenarios, positioning it as a leading player in the AI era. The adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are 2585 billion, 2896 billion, and 3218 billion respectively, with a 2% upward revision for each year [6][23]