Investment Rating - The oil and gas industry is rated as "Outperform" [4] Core Views - The report indicates that oil prices experienced fluctuations and a downward trend in December 2025, influenced by geopolitical tensions and supply concerns [1][12] - OPEC+ has decided to pause production increases in the first quarter of 2026, despite previous plans to increase output [1][16] - Demand for crude oil is expected to grow in 2025 and 2026, with estimates ranging from 83,000 to 130,000 barrels per day for 2025 and 86,000 to 138,000 barrels per day for 2026 [2][17] Summary by Sections Oil Price Review - In December 2025, the average price of Brent crude oil futures was $61.6 per barrel, down $2.0 from the previous month, while WTI averaged $57.9 per barrel, down $1.6 [1][12] - The fluctuations in oil prices were attributed to various geopolitical events, including the attack on the Russian Friendship Pipeline and sanctions on Venezuela [1][12] Supply Side Analysis - OPEC+ announced a pause in production increases for the first quarter of 2026, following a period of planned increases in late 2025 [1][16] - The report highlights that OPEC+ aims to maintain a balance in oil prices, with Brent crude expected to stabilize between $55 and $65 per barrel in 2026 [3][36] Demand Side Analysis - Major energy agencies project an increase in crude oil demand for 2025 and 2026, with specific figures provided by OPEC, IEA, and EIA [2][17] - The report notes that the refining industry in China is facing overcapacity issues, leading to stricter controls on new refining projects [3][18] Company Recommendations - The report recommends several companies, including China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec), Satellite Chemical, and CNOOC Development, as key investment opportunities [4]

证券研究报告 | 2026年01月05日 制造成长周报（第 41 期） 优于大市 软银完成对 Open AI 的 400 亿美元投资，蓝箭航天 IPO 获受理 重点事件点评&重点关注：AI 基建、商业航天 事件 1-软银完成对 Open AI 的 400 亿美元投资：2025 年 12 月 30 日，软银 集团已于上周完成对 OpenAI 的最后一笔注资，金额约在 220 亿至 225 亿美 元之间，已完成对 OpenAI 的 400 亿美元投资承诺。 事件 2-蓝箭航天 IPO 获受理：2025 年 12 月 31 日，蓝箭航天 IPO 获受理： 拟募资 75 亿，需实现可复用火箭发射载荷成功入轨。 AI 基建点评：软银完成对 Open AI 的投资，xAI 收购第三座建筑，训练算力 将接近 GW，随着 AI 相关投资持续加码，AI 基建需求旺盛，相关产业链将继 续同步扩张受益。我们持续看好 AI 基建相关产业链，重点关注燃气轮机及 液冷方向。燃气轮机作为海外数据中心主用电源与备用电源将深度受益 AI 数据中心供电需求，GEV 超预期上修燃机订单与扩产也表明行业是超 长景气大周期。建议重点关注 AI 数据中 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform the Market" rating for the company [4] Core Insights - The company is a leading manufacturer of anti-corrosion and wear-resistant cladding equipment, actively expanding into overseas markets and new business areas, particularly in HRSG (Heat Recovery Steam Generators) and oil and gas composite pipes, which are expected to drive growth [1][3] - The company has a projected revenue and net profit CAGR of 13.94% and 2.07% from 2018 to 2024, respectively, with a significant increase in overseas revenue share from 11% in 2021 to 55% in 2024 [1][29] - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the upcycle in the HRSG market driven by the demand for gas turbines and AI data centers, with an estimated overseas HRSG demand of approximately 50-80 billion yuan over the next 3-5 years [2][3] Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, established in 2007, specializes in anti-corrosion and wear-resistant cladding equipment, with applications in energy, environmental protection, and other industrial sectors [14] - It has a strong customer base, including major companies like GE and Hitachi, and is expanding its international presence in markets such as the UAE, the US, and Europe [14][19] Financial Performance - The company experienced a decline in domestic demand, leading to a decrease in revenue from 5.75 billion yuan in 2022 to 4.60 billion yuan in 2024, while net profit is expected to drop from 1.21 billion yuan in 2022 to 0.69 billion yuan in 2024 [25][29] - The overseas revenue share is projected to rise significantly, with a CAGR of 55.72% from 2021 to 2024, indicating a strategic shift towards international markets [29] Business Segments - The HRSG segment is expected to benefit from the increasing demand for gas turbines, with the company investing in production capacity in Vietnam to meet North American market needs [2][3] - The oil and gas composite pipe business is also being developed, targeting the growing demand in the Middle East for deep-sea oil and gas extraction [3][19] Profitability and Valuation - The company forecasts net profits of 0.53 billion yuan, 1.79 billion yuan, and 3.46 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 132, 39, and 20 [3][8] - The reasonable stock valuation range is set between 67.50 and 74.25 yuan, indicating potential upside from the current closing price of 52.28 yuan [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Guizhou Moutai is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][6] Core Views - The company is fully promoting market-oriented transformation to address supply-demand matching issues. Short-term, the product structure and pricing of Moutai liquor are becoming more market-oriented, which is expected to show resilient performance in demand during the Spring Festival. The wholesale price is anticipated to stabilize and recover year-on-year, strengthening the support for valuation [3][8] - The company is expected to achieve stable performance through flexible policies and adjustments across multiple channels and products. The recent reforms are expected to improve the profitability of distributors, leading to a sequential improvement in channel profits [3][8] - In the medium to long term, the market-oriented reforms will help the company directly cultivate consumers. Its production, craftsmanship, and brand value remain industry-leading, ensuring continued brand valuation premium and investor returns even as perpetual growth rates converge [3][8] Summary by Sections Market-Oriented Transformation - Guizhou Moutai is implementing comprehensive market-oriented reforms, emphasizing consumer-centric approaches and adjusting product, channel, pricing, and incentive strategies [2][3] Product Strategy - The company is optimizing its product structure and pricing system, aiming to create a pyramid product system with "Feitian + Boutique" as the two major products. The 2026 Moutai liquor output is expected to remain stable, with an increase in the output of regular and boutique products while reducing non-standard products [4] Channel Strategy - The company has established a diversified sales model with a "4+6" channel ecosystem, planning to adjust product distribution and sales models to better match market demand. This includes enhancing the profitability of distributors and integrating online and offline channels [5][7] Financial Forecasts - The revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are adjusted to 183.3 billion, 184.3 billion, and 186.1 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of +5.3%, +0.5%, and +1.0% respectively. The expected net profit attributable to the parent company is 90.45 billion, 90.50 billion, and 91.79 billion yuan, with growth rates of +4.9%, 0.0%, and +1.4% respectively [3][9]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - In 2025, the bond market showed a volatile trend. The yields of government bonds and credit bonds first rose, then fell, and then fluctuated higher. The credit spreads first narrowed and then widened. The default risk continued to decline, mainly concentrated in real - estate bonds of private enterprises. The risk of implicit rating downgrade in the ChinaBond market increased, and the recovery rate of defaulted bonds remained low [9][36][37] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Valuation Curve: Yields Widely Oscillated Upward - By December 31, 2025, the yields of 1 - year Treasury bonds, 10 - year Treasury bonds, and 10 - year CDB bonds changed by 25BP, 17BP, and 27BP respectively; the yields of 3 - year AAA, 3 - year AA+, 3 - year AA, and 3 - year AA - changed by 15BP, 8BP, 9BP, and - 41BP respectively. The credit spreads of 3 - year AAA, 3 - year AA+, 3 - year AA, and 3 - year AA - narrowed by 4BP, 12BP, 11BP, and 61BP respectively. Overall, yields of various maturities generally rose, and credit spreads of major maturities and ratings of credit bonds narrowed, with lower - grade and shorter - term credit spreads narrowing more. The 10 - 1 curve flattened [10][11] 2. Treasury Bond Yields Oscillated Higher - The bond market in 2025 can be divided into several stages. From January to mid - March, due to tightened money supply, short - term yields rose rapidly. After the Two Sessions in March, the 10 - year Treasury bond yield reached a high of 1.90%. From late March to April, the 10 - year Treasury bond yield dropped to the 1.63% - 1.67% range. From May to June, long - end yields fluctuated slightly. From July to September, yields oscillated upward, showing a "bear steepening" pattern. From October to December, yields showed an oscillating trend [2][12][16] 3. Credit Spreads - All Grades of Credit Spreads First Narrowed and Then Widened - In 2025, credit spreads first fluctuated and narrowed, then slightly widened. In the first half of the year, they mainly narrowed, and in the second half, they widened with the bond market correction. Short - end credit spreads had a smaller correction range [17][19] 4. The Risk of Implicit Rating Downgrade in the ChinaBond Market Increased - In 2025, the amount of credit bonds with implicit rating downgrades in the ChinaBond market was 865.5 billion, with a significant year - on - year increase. The total amount of implicit rating upgrades was 422.2 billion, significantly lower than the previous year. The proportion of urban investment bonds in the upgraded and downgraded samples decreased compared with the previous year [25] 5. Default Risk Generally Declined, and the Default Rate of Real - Estate Bonds Declined - In 2025, there were 9 new first - time defaulting issuers. According to the broad default standard, the default amount was 17.5 billion, and the default rate was 0.04%, with a significant decline year - on - year. Defaulting entities were mainly concentrated in real - estate bonds of private enterprises, and the default rate of real - estate bonds and private enterprises both declined [27][30] 6. The Recovery Rate Remained Low - In 2025, defaulted bonds recovered 24.53 billion in principal. From 2014 to the present, defaulted bonds have paid a total of 129.4 billion in principal, and the payment rate of overdue principal was 12.4% [32]

- The report highlights that in December 2025, the top-performing factors in the broker's gold stock pool were single-quarter ROE, net analyst upgrades, and net operating cash flow, while volatility, single-quarter revenue growth, and intraday returns performed poorly[3][27] - Throughout 2025, the best-performing factors were total market capitalization, single-quarter revenue growth, and single-quarter ROE, while EPTTM, expected dividend yield, and volatility performed poorly[3][27] - The broker's gold stock performance enhancement portfolio achieved an absolute return of 5.24% in December 2025, with an excess return of 2.18% relative to the mixed equity fund index[5][41] - For the year 2025, the broker's gold stock performance enhancement portfolio achieved an absolute return of 40.66%, with an excess return of 7.47% relative to the mixed equity fund index, ranking in the 32.60th percentile among active equity funds[5][41] - The construction of the broker's gold stock performance enhancement portfolio involves selecting stocks from the broker's gold stock pool, optimizing the portfolio to control deviations in individual stocks and styles, and using the industry distribution of all public funds as the industry allocation benchmark[42] - The historical performance of the broker's gold stock performance enhancement portfolio from 2018 to 2025 shows an annualized return of 21.71%, with an annualized excess return of 14.18% relative to the mixed equity fund index, consistently ranking in the top 30% of active equity funds each year[43][46]

证券研究报告 | 2026年01月04日 2026年01月05日 2025 年债券行情回顾 收益率总体企稳回升，信用利差被动收窄 估值曲线：2025 年债市收益率震荡上行；信用利差方面，多数品种利差 被动收窄。收益率方面，1 年期国债、10 年期国债、10 年期国开债分别 变动了 25BP、17BP、27BP，3 年 AAA、3 年 AA+、3 年 AA 和 3 年 AA-分别 变动了 15BP、8BP、9BP 和-41BP。信用利差方面，3 年 AAA、3 年 AA+、 3 年 AA 和 3 年 AA-分别收窄了 4BP、12BP、11BP 和 61BP。 国债收益率震荡走高：年初资金面大幅收紧导致债市收益率整体上行，3 月 两会后，潘行长关于货币政策的表述推动市场修正预期，10 年期国债收益率 进一步升至 1.90%高位。二季度中美关税拉锯，叠加央行降准降息兑现，资 金面整体环比改善，10 年期国债收益率下行至 1.63%-1.67%区间震荡。三季 度"反内卷"政策推升通胀预期，权益走强压制债市，叠加基金费率新规与 债基赎回，债市收益率整体上行；但在央行呵护资金面背景下，短端收益率 较为平稳，债市呈现"熊 ...

- The report does not contain any specific quantitative models or factors for analysis[4][35][37] - It provides performance metrics for quantitative public funds, including index-enhanced funds and quantitative hedging funds[35][37] - Index-enhanced funds achieved a median excess return of -0.08% last week and 4.67% year-to-date[35][37] - Quantitative hedging funds achieved a median return of 0.10% last week and 1.24% year-to-date[35][37] - The report lists top-performing index-enhanced funds and quantitative hedging funds based on weekly and annual performance metrics[58][59][61][62]

========= - The weekly report highlights that the median excess return of index-enhanced funds last week was -0.08%, while the median return of quantitative hedge funds was 0.10%[2][35] - Since the beginning of the year, the median excess return of index-enhanced funds has been 4.67%, and the median return of quantitative hedge funds has been 1.24%[2][35] - The report also mentions that the best-performing category of funds this year has been alternative funds, with a median return of 52.59%[2][33] =========

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the AI industry [1] Core Insights - The report reviews the stock price trends of major US tech companies over the past three years, highlighting the continuous evolution of AI narratives. In 2023, OpenAI led the global acceleration of AI, benefiting Microsoft through exclusive partnerships, resulting in a significant valuation increase. The narrative shifted in 2024 towards reasoning capabilities, with application companies seen as optimal investments, particularly Meta, which holds a monopoly in social media and advertising scenarios [2][11] - The report anticipates a 50% year-on-year increase in capital expenditures (Capex) for four major companies in 2025, with a sustained growth rate of over 30% expected in 2026. The report notes that the North American tech giants' Capex was revised upwards from an initial estimate of $320-330 billion to nearly $400 billion by year-end [2][18] - The evolution of model architectures continues, with the Scaling Law remaining relevant. The emergence of multi-modal and long-text capabilities is expected to provide a foundation for the explosion of agents. The report identifies two core pain points that need addressing: the computational and memory consumption bottlenecks during training and the limited memory capacity during inference [2][47] Summary by Sections Section 1: Stock Price and Capex Review - In 2023, major tech companies experienced a significant recovery in stock prices after a sharp decline in 2022, with OpenAI's advancements driving this trend [7][11] - The report predicts that the Capex for major companies will continue to grow, with Microsoft, Amazon, Google, and Meta all showing substantial year-on-year increases [18][19] Section 2: Demand for Reasoning Capabilities - The report highlights that the demand for reasoning capabilities is expected to explode, particularly in programming and agent applications. The growth of AI programming tools and agents is anticipated to drive significant revenue increases in these sectors [5][11] Section 3: Model Development Trends - The report discusses the ongoing evolution of model architectures, emphasizing the importance of addressing computational efficiency and memory limitations. It notes that the next generation of models will need to overcome these challenges to achieve significant advancements [33][47] - The report also mentions the competitive landscape among major model developers, with OpenAI, Google, and others vying for leadership in multi-modal capabilities and reasoning models [36][44] Section 4: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies involved in computational infrastructure, such as Alibaba, Baidu, NVIDIA, and Google, as well as major model developers like Alibaba, Google, and Tencent [5][11]