Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - In 2025, the bond market showed a volatile trend. The yields of government bonds and credit bonds first rose, then fell, and then fluctuated higher. The credit spreads first narrowed and then widened. The default risk continued to decline, mainly concentrated in real - estate bonds of private enterprises. The risk of implicit rating downgrade in the ChinaBond market increased, and the recovery rate of defaulted bonds remained low [9][36][37] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Valuation Curve: Yields Widely Oscillated Upward - By December 31, 2025, the yields of 1 - year Treasury bonds, 10 - year Treasury bonds, and 10 - year CDB bonds changed by 25BP, 17BP, and 27BP respectively; the yields of 3 - year AAA, 3 - year AA+, 3 - year AA, and 3 - year AA - changed by 15BP, 8BP, 9BP, and - 41BP respectively. The credit spreads of 3 - year AAA, 3 - year AA+, 3 - year AA, and 3 - year AA - narrowed by 4BP, 12BP, 11BP, and 61BP respectively. Overall, yields of various maturities generally rose, and credit spreads of major maturities and ratings of credit bonds narrowed, with lower - grade and shorter - term credit spreads narrowing more. The 10 - 1 curve flattened [10][11] 2. Treasury Bond Yields Oscillated Higher - The bond market in 2025 can be divided into several stages. From January to mid - March, due to tightened money supply, short - term yields rose rapidly. After the Two Sessions in March, the 10 - year Treasury bond yield reached a high of 1.90%. From late March to April, the 10 - year Treasury bond yield dropped to the 1.63% - 1.67% range. From May to June, long - end yields fluctuated slightly. From July to September, yields oscillated upward, showing a "bear steepening" pattern. From October to December, yields showed an oscillating trend [2][12][16] 3. Credit Spreads - All Grades of Credit Spreads First Narrowed and Then Widened - In 2025, credit spreads first fluctuated and narrowed, then slightly widened. In the first half of the year, they mainly narrowed, and in the second half, they widened with the bond market correction. Short - end credit spreads had a smaller correction range [17][19] 4. The Risk of Implicit Rating Downgrade in the ChinaBond Market Increased - In 2025, the amount of credit bonds with implicit rating downgrades in the ChinaBond market was 865.5 billion, with a significant year - on - year increase. The total amount of implicit rating upgrades was 422.2 billion, significantly lower than the previous year. The proportion of urban investment bonds in the upgraded and downgraded samples decreased compared with the previous year [25] 5. Default Risk Generally Declined, and the Default Rate of Real - Estate Bonds Declined - In 2025, there were 9 new first - time defaulting issuers. According to the broad default standard, the default amount was 17.5 billion, and the default rate was 0.04%, with a significant decline year - on - year. Defaulting entities were mainly concentrated in real - estate bonds of private enterprises, and the default rate of real - estate bonds and private enterprises both declined [27][30] 6. The Recovery Rate Remained Low - In 2025, defaulted bonds recovered 24.53 billion in principal. From 2014 to the present, defaulted bonds have paid a total of 129.4 billion in principal, and the payment rate of overdue principal was 12.4% [32]

- The report highlights that in December 2025, the top-performing factors in the broker's gold stock pool were single-quarter ROE, net analyst upgrades, and net operating cash flow, while volatility, single-quarter revenue growth, and intraday returns performed poorly[3][27] - Throughout 2025, the best-performing factors were total market capitalization, single-quarter revenue growth, and single-quarter ROE, while EPTTM, expected dividend yield, and volatility performed poorly[3][27] - The broker's gold stock performance enhancement portfolio achieved an absolute return of 5.24% in December 2025, with an excess return of 2.18% relative to the mixed equity fund index[5][41] - For the year 2025, the broker's gold stock performance enhancement portfolio achieved an absolute return of 40.66%, with an excess return of 7.47% relative to the mixed equity fund index, ranking in the 32.60th percentile among active equity funds[5][41] - The construction of the broker's gold stock performance enhancement portfolio involves selecting stocks from the broker's gold stock pool, optimizing the portfolio to control deviations in individual stocks and styles, and using the industry distribution of all public funds as the industry allocation benchmark[42] - The historical performance of the broker's gold stock performance enhancement portfolio from 2018 to 2025 shows an annualized return of 21.71%, with an annualized excess return of 14.18% relative to the mixed equity fund index, consistently ranking in the top 30% of active equity funds each year[43][46]

证券研究报告 | 2026年01月04日 2026年01月05日 2025 年债券行情回顾 收益率总体企稳回升，信用利差被动收窄 估值曲线：2025 年债市收益率震荡上行；信用利差方面，多数品种利差 被动收窄。收益率方面，1 年期国债、10 年期国债、10 年期国开债分别 变动了 25BP、17BP、27BP，3 年 AAA、3 年 AA+、3 年 AA 和 3 年 AA-分别 变动了 15BP、8BP、9BP 和-41BP。信用利差方面，3 年 AAA、3 年 AA+、 3 年 AA 和 3 年 AA-分别收窄了 4BP、12BP、11BP 和 61BP。 国债收益率震荡走高：年初资金面大幅收紧导致债市收益率整体上行，3 月 两会后，潘行长关于货币政策的表述推动市场修正预期，10 年期国债收益率 进一步升至 1.90%高位。二季度中美关税拉锯，叠加央行降准降息兑现，资 金面整体环比改善，10 年期国债收益率下行至 1.63%-1.67%区间震荡。三季 度"反内卷"政策推升通胀预期，权益走强压制债市，叠加基金费率新规与 债基赎回，债市收益率整体上行；但在央行呵护资金面背景下，短端收益率 较为平稳，债市呈现"熊 ...

- The report does not contain any specific quantitative models or factors for analysis[4][35][37] - It provides performance metrics for quantitative public funds, including index-enhanced funds and quantitative hedging funds[35][37] - Index-enhanced funds achieved a median excess return of -0.08% last week and 4.67% year-to-date[35][37] - Quantitative hedging funds achieved a median return of 0.10% last week and 1.24% year-to-date[35][37] - The report lists top-performing index-enhanced funds and quantitative hedging funds based on weekly and annual performance metrics[58][59][61][62]

========= - The weekly report highlights that the median excess return of index-enhanced funds last week was -0.08%, while the median return of quantitative hedge funds was 0.10%[2][35] - Since the beginning of the year, the median excess return of index-enhanced funds has been 4.67%, and the median return of quantitative hedge funds has been 1.24%[2][35] - The report also mentions that the best-performing category of funds this year has been alternative funds, with a median return of 52.59%[2][33] =========

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the AI industry [1] Core Insights - The report reviews the stock price trends of major US tech companies over the past three years, highlighting the continuous evolution of AI narratives. In 2023, OpenAI led the global acceleration of AI, benefiting Microsoft through exclusive partnerships, resulting in a significant valuation increase. The narrative shifted in 2024 towards reasoning capabilities, with application companies seen as optimal investments, particularly Meta, which holds a monopoly in social media and advertising scenarios [2][11] - The report anticipates a 50% year-on-year increase in capital expenditures (Capex) for four major companies in 2025, with a sustained growth rate of over 30% expected in 2026. The report notes that the North American tech giants' Capex was revised upwards from an initial estimate of $320-330 billion to nearly $400 billion by year-end [2][18] - The evolution of model architectures continues, with the Scaling Law remaining relevant. The emergence of multi-modal and long-text capabilities is expected to provide a foundation for the explosion of agents. The report identifies two core pain points that need addressing: the computational and memory consumption bottlenecks during training and the limited memory capacity during inference [2][47] Summary by Sections Section 1: Stock Price and Capex Review - In 2023, major tech companies experienced a significant recovery in stock prices after a sharp decline in 2022, with OpenAI's advancements driving this trend [7][11] - The report predicts that the Capex for major companies will continue to grow, with Microsoft, Amazon, Google, and Meta all showing substantial year-on-year increases [18][19] Section 2: Demand for Reasoning Capabilities - The report highlights that the demand for reasoning capabilities is expected to explode, particularly in programming and agent applications. The growth of AI programming tools and agents is anticipated to drive significant revenue increases in these sectors [5][11] Section 3: Model Development Trends - The report discusses the ongoing evolution of model architectures, emphasizing the importance of addressing computational efficiency and memory limitations. It notes that the next generation of models will need to overcome these challenges to achieve significant advancements [33][47] - The report also mentions the competitive landscape among major model developers, with OpenAI, Google, and others vying for leadership in multi-modal capabilities and reasoning models [36][44] Section 4: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies involved in computational infrastructure, such as Alibaba, Baidu, NVIDIA, and Google, as well as major model developers like Alibaba, Google, and Tencent [5][11]

宏观与策略 宏观快评:12 月 PMI 数据解读-年末脉冲，助力收官 固定收益专题研究:2026 年 1 月转债市场研判及"十强转债"组合 策略深度:资配跨年展望(三)-龙头科技，强者恒强 总量专题（首席经济学家团队）:总量专题-26 年牛市的变与不变 行业与公司 证券研究报告 | 2026年01月05日 | 晨会纪要 | | --- | | 数据日期:2025-12-31 | 上证综指 | 深证成指沪深 | 300 指数 | 中小板综指 | 创业板综指 | 科创 50 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘指数（点） | 3968.84 | 13525.02 | 4629.93 | 14545.57 | 3911.49 | 1344.20 | | 涨跌幅度（%） | 0.09 | -0.58 | -0.45 | -0.30 | -0.51 | -1.15 | | 成交金额（亿元） | 8295.11 | 12156.30 | 4444.91 | 4402.74 | 5436.91 | 492.84 | $\frac{10}{100}$$\frac ...

Core Insights - The convertible bond market is expected to see a slight increase in valuation during the spring season due to strong expectations for underlying stocks and seasonal effects [2][16] - The China Convertible Bond Index reached a new high of 496 points since July 2015, indicating a positive trend in the market despite a decrease in ETF shares [2][16] - The average conversion premium for convertible bonds has increased, reflecting a shift from passive to active investment strategies as investors selectively identify opportunities [2][16] Market Performance - The convertible bond market saw a decline in most individual bonds, with the China Convertible Bond Index down by 0.27% and an average price drop of 0.50% [1][7] - The average parity price decreased by 0.75%, while the overall market conversion premium increased by 0.74% compared to the previous week [1][7] - Specific bonds such as Tianchuang, Maolai, Libo, Hongwei, and Hongtu showed significant gains, while others like Haohan, Jiamei, Huayi, and Kaisheng experienced notable declines [1][11] Sector Analysis - In the stock market, sectors such as commercial aerospace and precision optics performed well, while the electric power sector faced significant adjustments due to lower-than-expected long-term electricity prices [7][8] - The overall sentiment in the bond market was weak, influenced by factors such as the end-of-year financial assessments and a general decline in market activity [8][14] - The average implied volatility for convertible bonds stands at 45.91%, indicating a high level of market uncertainty [17][22] Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to focus on convertible bonds with strong underlying stock performance and consider participating in bonds nearing maturity [2][16] - The report suggests targeting sectors with high earnings elasticity, such as lithium battery materials, semiconductor equipment, and power semiconductors, which are expected to benefit from increased demand [2][16] - For absolute return strategies, it is recommended to look at industry leaders with valuations at historical lows, particularly in sectors like livestock farming and utilities [2][16]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core View of the Report - The report regularly tracks the latest private exchangeable bond (Private EB) projects from public channels, including basic elements such as issuance scale, underlying stocks, and project status. It also reminds that private issuance terms and processes may change, and the final prospectus should be referred to. The issuance progress should be consulted with the relevant lead underwriters [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Newly Added Project Information This Week - The 2026 private exchangeable corporate bond project of North Lingyun Industry Group Co., Ltd. for professional investors has been accepted by the exchange. The proposed issuance scale is 500 million yuan, the underlying stock is Lingyun Co., Ltd. (600480.SH), the lead underwriter is CITIC Construction Securities, and the exchange update date is December 30, 2025 [1]. Table of Private EB Weekly Tracking (2025 - 12 - 31) - Multiple private exchangeable bond projects have passed the review, including those of Nanshan Group Co., Ltd., Jiangsu Guotai International Group Co., Ltd., etc. Some projects are in the "feedback received" status, such as those of Shanxi Transportation Development Investment Group Co., Ltd., Fuda Holdings Group Co., Ltd., etc. And the North Lingyun Industry Group Co., Ltd. project is in the "accepted" status [2].

Group 1 - The report emphasizes that the Hong Kong stock market is expected to outperform the market, driven by a dual momentum of a weaker US dollar and improved domestic liquidity in the spring of 2026 [1][2] - The focus for 2026 is on two main themes: AI and PPI, which are anticipated to significantly influence market expectations and corporate profitability [1][2][51] - The report highlights that the AI sector remains a priority for 2026, with expectations for accelerated domestic semiconductor hardware production and increased AI application deployments, particularly in the Hang Seng Technology and Internet sectors [2][59] Group 2 - The report indicates that the recovery in the Hong Kong stock market has already begun, with significant gains observed during the New Year period, suggesting a positive shift in foreign capital inflow [2][73] - It notes that the performance of various sectors in December showed divergence, with materials and industrial sectors benefiting from the recovery, while sectors like innovative pharmaceuticals and consumer goods faced challenges [2][77][84] - The report mentions that the 2025 Hong Kong stock market had a remarkable performance, with the Hang Seng Index returning 27.8%, significantly outperforming A-shares and US stocks, and setting a record for southbound capital inflows [2][84][86] Group 3 - The report discusses the macroeconomic outlook for the US, highlighting a decrease in inflation pressure and a focus on employment data, which will influence future monetary policy decisions [9][12] - It points out that the US real estate market is currently weak, with a significant gap between sellers and buyers, which is expected to impact inflation and economic activity in 2026 [18][22][26] - The report also notes that corporate earnings per share (EPS) for listed companies continue to reach new highs, indicating strong underlying performance despite macroeconomic challenges [40][41] Group 4 - The report identifies that the domestic economic indicators in China have shown some decline, particularly in M1 and social financing, which may affect liquidity and investment sentiment [51][52] - It emphasizes the importance of the upcoming "14th Five-Year Plan" and its implications for technological advancements and industrial growth, particularly in AI and PPI sectors [59][61] - The report suggests that the PPI is expected to rise significantly in the first half of 2026, which will improve profitability for industrial enterprises and influence investment strategies [61][62]