Group 1 - The report highlights the rapid growth in the domestic electric vehicle market, with July 2025 witnessing a year-on-year increase of over 26% in production and sales, accounting for 48.7% of total vehicle sales for the month [20][23][25] - The steel industry has achieved a significant reduction in emissions, with a decrease of over 50% compared to 2018, supported by investments exceeding 30 billion yuan in ultra-low emission transformation [20][21] - The report notes that China has secured the top ten positions in the global energy storage cell market, with a year-on-year increase of 106.15% in shipments during the first half of 2025 [20][21] Group 2 - The report discusses the implementation of a loan interest subsidy policy aimed at service industry operators, which is expected to alleviate financial pressure and enhance service capabilities in sectors such as catering, health, and tourism [28][29] - The report emphasizes the importance of digital infrastructure, noting that China has established the world's largest 5G network and the second-largest computing power system, which supports inclusive social development [20][29] - The report outlines the collaborative efforts of 12 departments to strengthen law enforcement and judicial cooperation for ecological protection in the Yangtze River basin, aiming to address cross-regional enforcement challenges [29][30]

证券研究报告 | 2025年08月17日 | 证券分析师： | 王艺熹 | 021-60893204 | wangyixi@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980522100006 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 吴越 | 021-60375496 | wuyue8@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980525080001 | | 证券分析师： | 赵婧 | 0755-22940745 | zhaojing@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980513080004 | 我们定期梳理从公开渠道可获得的最新的可交换私募债（私募 EB）项目情况，对私募可交换债项目做基本 要素跟踪，私募发行条款发行过程可能有更改，请以最终募集说明书为准，发行进度请与相关主承销商咨 询。 本周新增项目信息如下：（部分项目因合规原因未予列示） 可交换私募债跟踪 私募 EB 每周跟踪（20250811-20250815） 固定收益快评 1. 福建省国有资产管理有限公司 2025 年面向专业投资者非公开发行可交换公司债券项目获交易所受理， 拟 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年08月17日 转债市场周报 转债市场方面，上周转债个券多数收涨，中证转债指数全周+1.60%，价 格中位数+1.15%，我们计算的算术平均平价全周+3.36%，全市场转股溢 价率与上周相比-0.44%。个券层面，欧通（数据中心电源）、大元（液 冷服务器概念）、金铜（PEEK 材料）、微芯（创新药）、游族（游戏概 念）转债涨幅靠前；信测（机器人&已公告强赎）、景 23（pcb）、高测 （光伏&已公告强赎）、应急（军工&已公告强赎）、设研（雅下水电概 念）转债跌幅靠前。 观点及策略（8 月 18 日-8 月 22 日） 上周转债市场跟随权益市场继续上涨，且多数平价区间转债估值均有所 抬升，市场平均价格接近 149 元，中位数突破前高再度上升至 131 元； 全周超 350 只个券收涨，其中涨幅靠前的多为强势跟涨的低溢价率品种； 两只转债 ETF 规模继续扩张超 40 亿元。 近日中美关税暂缓期延长 90 天、外部风险有所缓释；《个人消费贷款 财政贴息政策实施方案》发布、证监会表态"不会出现 IPO 大规模扩容 情况"，内部政策环境依旧偏利好；且 AI、机器人等产业端催化不断， "反内卷 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the communication industry [5][66]. Core Insights - The communication industry is experiencing robust growth driven by AI infrastructure and high demand for related products, particularly in the optical communication and AI server sectors [4][11][19]. - Major domestic optical communication companies are seeing rapid revenue growth, with significant contributions from high-speed optical modules [2][29][33]. - The three major telecom operators are showing stable performance with increasing dividends, indicating a solid long-term investment opportunity [4][48][55]. Summary by Sections Industry News Tracking - Industrial Fulian reported a revenue of 360.76 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 35.58%, with net profit rising by 38.61% [11]. - Lumentum's cloud computing and networking business grew by 66.5%, with Q4 revenue reaching $480.7 million, up 55.9% year-on-year [19][20]. - AVC's revenue for H1 2025 was 52.927 billion New Taiwan dollars, a 66.48% increase, driven by strong demand for AI server cooling products [23][24]. Domestic Optical Communication Companies - Huagong Technology's revenue in H1 2025 was 7.629 billion yuan, up 44.66%, with net profit increasing by 44.87% [29][30]. - Taichung Light's revenue reached 828 million yuan in H1 2025, a 62.49% increase, with net profit growing by 118.02% [33][34]. Telecom Operators - China Mobile reported a revenue of 543.8 billion yuan, a slight decline of 0.5%, but net profit increased by 5.0% [48]. - China Telecom's revenue was 269.4 billion yuan, up 1.3%, with net profit rising by 5.5% [48][55]. - The three major operators are increasing their dividend payouts, with a total proposed mid-term dividend of approximately 74.256 billion yuan [2][55]. Market Performance - The communication sector index rose by 7.66%, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, which increased by 2.37% [3][62]. - The optical module and device sectors showed strong performance, with significant gains in stock prices [63][64]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on AI computing infrastructure, particularly in optical communication and domestic computing sectors [4][66]. - Long-term investment in the three major telecom operators is recommended due to their stable operations and increasing dividend yields [4][66].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the release of the second - quarter reports, REITs shifted from a general upward trend to a volatile correction. The market value and average daily turnover rate of all - market REITs decreased. The weekly decline of the CSI REITs Index was 1.62%. The average weekly price changes of property - type REITs and franchise - type REITs were - 1.57% and - 2.04% respectively. Among major indices, the performance ranking in terms of weekly price change was: CSI 300 > CSI Convertible Bond Index > CSI Aggregate Bond Index > CSI REITs Index. Except for data center REITs, other types of REITs closed down [1]. - As of August 15, 2025, the average annualized cash distribution rate of public - offering REITs was 6.3%, significantly higher than the current static yields of mainstream fixed - income assets. The dividend yield of property - type REITs was 13 basis points higher than the average dividend yield of CSI Dividend stocks, and the spread between the average internal rate of return of franchise - type REITs and the 10 - year Treasury bond yield was 232 basis points [1]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Secondary Market Trends - As of August 15, 2025, the closing price of the CSI REITs (closing) Index was 853.96 points, with a weekly decline of 1.62%. It performed worse than the CSI 300 Index (+2.31%), the CSI Convertible Bond Index (+1.60%), and the CSI Aggregate Bond Index (-0.62%). Since the beginning of the year, the ranking of major indices in terms of price change was: CSI Convertible Bond Index (+14.6%) > CSI REITs Index (+8.2%) > CSI 300 Index (+6.8%) > CSI Aggregate Bond Index (+0.8%) [2][7]. - In the past year, the return rate of the CSI REITs Index was 5.1%, and the volatility was 7.8%. The return rate was lower than that of the CSI 300 Index and the CSI Convertible Bond Index but higher than that of the CSI Aggregate Bond Index. The volatility was lower than that of the CSI 300 Index and the CSI Convertible Bond Index but higher than that of the CSI Aggregate Bond Index. The total market value of REITs rose to 217.8 billion yuan on August 15, a decrease of 3.5 billion yuan from the previous week. The average daily turnover rate for the whole week was 0.64%, a decrease of 0.12 percentage points from the previous week [2][9]. - Only data center REITs closed up. The average weekly price changes of property - type REITs and franchise - type REITs were - 1.57% and - 2.04% respectively. Except for new - type infrastructure (data center) REITs, other types of REITs closed down. The top three REITs in terms of weekly price increase were Southern Vanda Data Center REIT (+5.59%), Southern Runze Technology Data Center REIT (+4.26%), and Huaxia China Resources Commercial REIT (+0.62%) [3][14][16]. - New - type infrastructure REITs had the highest trading activity. The average daily turnover rate of new - type infrastructure REITs was 5.6%, and their trading volume accounted for 24.0% of the total trading volume of REITs. The top three REITs in terms of net inflow of main funds were Southern Runze Technology Data Center REIT (47.55 million yuan), Southern Vanda Data Center REIT (26.93 million yuan), and CITIC Construction Investment State Power Investment New Energy REIT (8.13 million yuan) [3]. Primary Market Issuance - As of August 15, 2025, there was 1 REIT product in the "accepted" stage, 2 in the "inquired" stage, 6 in the "feedback received" stage, 4 in the "approved and awaiting listing" stage, and 10 first - issued products that had been listed on the exchange [23]. - China Securities Regulatory Commission approved a total of 1 billion fund units for CICC Vipshop Outlet Mall REIT. Among them, the initial strategic placement was 700 million units, the initial offline offering was 210 million units, and the initial public offering was 90 million units. Based on the issuance of 1 billion units, the raised funds would be 3.48 billion yuan. The estimated annualized distribution rate was about 4.71%. CICC Vipshop Outlet Mall REIT was an important asset operation platform for Vipshop's online - offline collaborative strategy. The underlying assets were located in Ningbo, and Vipshop had more than 20 shopping centers, providing sufficient assets for future expansion [4][30]. Valuation Tracking - From the perspective of the bond nature of REITs, due to the constraint of mandatory high dividends, the focus was on the annualized cash distribution rate. As of August 15, the average annualized cash distribution rate of public - offering REITs was 6.3%, significantly higher than the current static yields of mainstream fixed - income assets [25]. - From the perspective of the equity nature, the relative net - value premium rate, IRR, and P/FFO were used to judge the valuation of REITs. Different types of REITs had different valuation indicators. For property - type REITs, the focus was on the dividend yield, while for franchise - type REITs, the focus was on the internal rate of return. As of August 15, 2025, the dividend yield of property - type REITs was 13 basis points higher than the average dividend yield of CSI Dividend stocks, and the spread between the average internal rate of return of franchise - type REITs and the 10 - year Treasury bond yield was 232 basis points [25][28].

Group 1 - The report indicates that the current market index is not overly expensive, as the valuation metrics suggest there is still room for growth despite recent highs [1][10][17] - The analysis highlights that the "Sharpe ratio differential" between equity and bond funds is near zero, indicating potential for further upward movement in the market [1][17] - Recent data shows a significant decrease in household deposits, with a reduction of 1.11 trillion yuan in July, suggesting a shift of funds into the market [1][21] Group 2 - The report emphasizes that single valuation indicators reaching their peak should be approached with caution, as a lack of divergence in valuations typically signals a market top [2][28][30] - The current PB (Price-to-Book) ratio for the A-share market is below 80% of its historical range, indicating that the market is not excessively valued when viewed through this lens [2][31] - The report suggests that the "buy the dip" strategy is particularly effective during upward economic cycles, with specific entry points identified after a 15-20% pullback from previous highs [3][43][42] Group 3 - The report identifies sectors with high earnings growth potential, such as semiconductors and innovative pharmaceuticals, as suitable for the "buy the dip" strategy [3][43][47] - It notes that industries with a PEG (Price/Earnings to Growth) ratio below 1.5 and a projected growth rate above 30% are favorable for investment [3][52][47] - The analysis indicates that sectors with stable earnings and low volatility, such as food processing and pharmaceuticals, are also worth monitoring for investment opportunities [52][52]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [4][6][26]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 7.629 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 44.66%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 911 million yuan, also up 44.87% [1][9]. - The rapid growth in the company's connectivity business, which generated 3.744 billion yuan in revenue, saw a significant year-on-year increase of 124%, driven by the surge in computing power demand from domestic internet and equipment manufacturers [2][11]. - The company is actively expanding its international production capacity and is positioned to benefit from the increasing penetration of silicon photonics and the ramp-up of high-speed optical modules [3][19]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 4.274 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 41.04%, and a net profit of 501 million yuan, which is a 49.62% increase compared to the same period last year [1][9]. - The gross margin for the first half of 2025 was 20.24%, a slight decrease of 3.4 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to changes in product mix [19]. Business Segments - The connectivity business is the largest segment, with a revenue of 3.744 billion yuan, driven by the delivery of 400G and 800G optical modules [2][11]. - The sensing business generated 2.154 billion yuan in revenue, up 16.8%, benefiting from the penetration of new energy vehicles and export growth [2][11]. - The intelligent manufacturing segment saw a revenue of 1.676 billion yuan, a slight decline of 3%, but orders from the new energy vehicle sector increased by 43% [2][16]. Future Outlook - The company has slightly raised its profit forecast for 2025-2027, expecting net profits of 1.914 billion yuan, 2.435 billion yuan, and 2.964 billion yuan respectively [4][26]. - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio (PE) of 27, 21, and 18 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4][26].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the real estate industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2] Core Viewpoints - The real estate market continues to weaken, with new housing sales and investment indicators declining sharply. However, recent policy changes in Beijing may signal the beginning of a new round of easing, potentially opening a window for speculation in real estate stocks [4][60] - In the first seven months of 2025, national real estate development investment was 53,580 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.0%. New housing starts and completed housing areas also saw significant declines [3][35] - The average selling price of new residential properties in 2025 was 9,613 yuan per square meter, down 2.6% year-on-year, indicating a continued downward trend in property prices, particularly in first-tier cities [16][60] Summary by Sections Sales and Investment Data - In July 2025, the total sales of commercial housing amounted to 53.25 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 14.1%, marking a significant decline compared to previous months [5][60] - The cumulative sales area for commercial housing in the first seven months was 51,560 million square meters, down 4.0% year-on-year [3][5] Price Trends - The average selling price of new commercial housing in July was 9,326 yuan per square meter, down 6.8% year-on-year, with first-tier cities experiencing a more pronounced price drop compared to second and third-tier cities [16][60] - The prices of new and second-hand homes in 70 cities showed improvement, but first-tier cities' second-hand home prices continued to decline [4][16] Development and Funding - Real estate development investment in July was 6,922 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 17.0%, indicating a worsening trend in funding for real estate companies [35][49] - The total funding available to real estate companies was 57,287 billion yuan, down 7.5% year-on-year, with significant declines in pre-sales and personal mortgage loans [35][49] Construction Activity - New housing starts in the first seven months totaled 35,206 million square meters, down 19.4% year-on-year, while completed housing areas were 25,034 million square meters, down 16.5% [49][60] - The monthly data for new housing starts and completions showed significant fluctuations, but the cumulative decline in new starts is narrowing [49][60]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the communication industry [5][66]. Core Insights - The communication industry is experiencing robust growth driven by AI infrastructure and high demand for related products, particularly in the optical communication and AI server sectors [4][66]. - Major domestic optical communication companies are seeing rapid revenue growth, with significant contributions from high-speed optical modules [2][31]. - The three major telecom operators are showing stable performance with increasing dividends, indicating a solid investment opportunity [4][42]. Summary by Sections Industry News Tracking - Industrial Fulian reported a revenue of 360.76 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 35.58%, with net profit rising by 38.61% [13]. - Lumentum's cloud computing and networking business grew by 66.5%, with Q4 revenue reaching $480.7 million, up 55.9% year-on-year [21][22]. - AVC's revenue for H1 2025 was 52.927 billion New Taiwan dollars, a 66.48% increase, driven by strong demand for AI server cooling and chassis products [25]. Domestic Optical Communication Companies - Huagong Technology's revenue in H1 2025 was 7.629 billion yuan, up 44.66%, with net profit increasing by 44.87% [31]. - Taicheng Technology achieved a revenue of 828 million yuan in H1 2025, a 62.49% increase, with net profit rising by 118.02% [36][37]. Telecom Operators Performance - China Mobile reported a revenue of 543.8 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.5%, but net profit increased by 5.0% [48]. - China Telecom's revenue grew by 1.3% to 269.4 billion yuan, with net profit increasing by 5.5% [48]. - China Unicom's revenue reached 200.2 billion yuan, up 1.5%, with net profit growing by 5.1% [48]. Market Performance Review - The communication sector index rose by 7.66%, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, which increased by 2.37% [3][62]. - The optical module and device sectors showed strong performance, with significant gains in stock prices [63]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on AI computing infrastructure, particularly in optical communication and domestic computing sectors [4][66]. - Long-term investment in the three major telecom operators is recommended due to their stable operations and increasing dividend payouts [4][66].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the bond market tumbled again. Despite weak July economic data, the stock market reached 3700 points, suppressing bonds and causing ultra - long bonds to plunge, with the 30 - year Treasury yield hitting a short - term high. The trading activity of ultra - long bonds increased slightly, the term spread widened, and the variety spread narrowed [1][11][43]. - In the short term, the bond market will face a game between expectations and reality. The 10 - year Treasury will oscillate in the range of [1.65%, 1.75%]. The weak real fundamentals support the bond market, while policy changes and investor sentiment suppress it. Currently, the term spread of 30 - year Treasuries and the variety spread of 20 - year CDB bonds are both low, with limited spread protection [2][3][12]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Weekly Review Ultra - long Bond Review - Last week, the bond market tumbled. Weak economic data in July, including rapid declines in consumption and investment and negative credit growth, were overshadowed by the stock market's rise to 3700 points, which comprehensively suppressed bonds. Ultra - long bonds plunged, and the 30 - year Treasury yield reached a short - term high. Trading activity increased slightly, the term spread widened, and the variety spread narrowed [1][11][43]. Ultra - long Bond Investment Outlook - **30 - year Treasury**: As of August 15, the spread between 30 - year and 10 - year Treasuries was 29BP, at a historically low level. In July, the economy faced downward pressure, with GDP growth at about 4.3% and deflation risks. The 10 - year Treasury will oscillate in the [1.65%, 1.75%] range. The current term spread is low, with limited protection [2][12]. - **20 - year CDB Bond**: As of August 15, the spread between 20 - year CDB bonds and 20 - year Treasuries was 2BP, at a historically extremely low level. Similar to the 30 - year Treasury situation, the short - term bond market faces a game between expectations and reality, and the current variety spread is low, with limited protection [3][13]. Ultra - long Bond Basic Overview - The balance of outstanding ultra - long bonds exceeded 22.8 trillion. As of July 31, the total amount of ultra - long bonds with a remaining term of over 14 years was 228,873 billion, accounting for 14.7% of all bonds. Local government bonds and Treasuries were the main varieties. In terms of remaining term, the 30 - year variety had the highest proportion [14]. Primary Market Weekly Issuance - Last week (August 11 - 15, 2025), the issuance of ultra - long bonds decreased significantly, with a total of 565 billion yuan. By variety, Treasuries were 350 billion, local government bonds were 178 billion, etc. By term, 20 - year bonds had the largest issuance at 436 billion [19]. This Week's Pending Issuance - The announced issuance plan for ultra - long bonds this week totals 2,953 billion. By variety, ultra - long Treasuries are 830 billion, and ultra - long local government bonds are 2,123 billion [26]. Secondary Market Trading Volume - Last week, ultra - long bonds were actively traded, with a turnover of 13,309 billion, accounting for 14.6% of all bonds. Compared with the previous week, the trading activity increased slightly, with the turnover and proportion of most varieties increasing [29]. Yield - Last week, the bond market tumbled. The 30 - year Treasury yield hit a short - term high. Yields of various ultra - long bonds increased, with the 30 - year Treasury yield rising by 9BP to 2.05%, and the 20 - year CDB bond yield rising by 6BP to 2.09% [43]. Spread Analysis - **Term Spread**: Last week, the term spread of ultra - long bonds widened but remained at a low absolute level. The 30 - year - 10 - year Treasury spread was 29BP, up 3BP from the previous week, at the 12% quantile since 2010 [51]. - **Variety Spread**: Last week, the variety spread of ultra - long bonds narrowed and was at a low absolute level. The spreads between 20 - year CDB bonds and Treasuries, and 20 - year railway bonds and Treasuries were 2BP and 6BP respectively, down 3BP and 5BP from the previous week, at the 3% and 4% quantiles since 2010 [52]. 30 - year Treasury Futures - Last week, the main 30 - year Treasury futures contract TL2509 closed at 117.48 yuan, a decline of 1.54%. The total trading volume was 870,600 lots, and the open interest was 151,500 lots, with trading volume increasing significantly and open interest decreasing slightly compared to the previous week [56].