Economic Overview - China's GDP grew by 5.3% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, significantly higher than the previous year's growth and the annual target[4] - The construction sector's GDP growth was only 0.7%, down from 4.8% in the previous year, indicating a shift towards new economic sectors like information technology[4] Policy Direction - The Politburo emphasized the need for continuous and flexible macroeconomic policies to stabilize employment, businesses, and market expectations[4] - A more proactive fiscal policy is required, with an acceleration in government bond issuance to enhance fund utilization efficiency[6] Fiscal Measures - In the first half of 2025, special bonds and long-term bonds totaled 2.43 trillion yuan, with an additional 3.7 trillion yuan in new special bonds issued, leaving approximately 1.3 trillion yuan unutilized[6] - The government plans to issue 3.8 trillion yuan in special bonds in the second half of the year to support fiscal spending[6] Consumption and Demand - The meeting highlighted the importance of boosting domestic consumption, particularly through service consumption, which has a significant multiplier effect on employment[5] - The government aims to implement special actions to stimulate consumption, focusing on both goods and services[5] Risk Management - The meeting called for proactive measures to mitigate local government debt risks and prevent the emergence of new hidden debts[12] - A total of 2.8 trillion yuan in debt for debt resolution has been issued this year, with 776.9 billion yuan in special new bonds issued to address corporate debt issues[13] Monetary Policy - The probability of significant monetary easing in Q3 is low, with a focus on maintaining liquidity and reducing financing costs through structural monetary policy tools[17] - The average interest rate on new corporate loans and personal housing loans decreased by approximately 50 basis points and 60 basis points, respectively, in Q1[22] Trade and Exports - Exports showed resilience with a year-on-year growth of 5.9% in the first half of 2025, despite challenges from external demand[26] - The government plans to stabilize foreign trade and foreign investment, emphasizing support for affected export enterprises[27] Real Estate Policy - The meeting did not mention measures to stabilize the real estate market, indicating a shift towards urban renewal and quality development rather than expansion[33]

证券研究报告 | 2025年07月30日 农夫山泉（09633.HK） 优于大市 包装水龙头，稀缺的饮料平台型企业 农夫估值溢价之源：经营长期主义和渠道深厚壁垒带来的可持续性增长。农 夫自上市以来估值中枢维持在 40x，溢价明显。公司所在的包装水和无 糖茶赛道生命周期长，且成长性好，市占领先行业，2020 年前公司"用 水养饮料"，2020 年后"用水和无糖茶养其他饮料"，公司基本盘业务 增速快于行业，新品催化是潜在的期权。公司是稀缺的可看长久期增长 的平台型企业，2021 年至今 ROE 均值 41%，领先食品饮料板块。 农夫山泉：包装水龙头，也是稀缺的饮料平台型企业，股权结构集中，管理 机制高效。公司是我国包装水龙头，自 2003 年相继推出农夫果园、尖叫、 东方树叶、17.5 橙等产品，2024 年水/茶饮/果汁分别位列行业第 1/2/4 位。创始人钟晱晱先生践行长期主义，管理层经验丰富，激励领先行业。 包装水：长生命周期、仍在增长的千亿赛道，农夫已拉开差距。国外经验看， 包装水的强便利性、安全性以及健康化趋势，在全球都具备较好成长性，以 美国、日本为例，1992 年至今包装水增长中枢 8%左右，且份额 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View - The report presents basic economic data including fixed - asset investment cumulative year - on - year at 2.80, social retail sales total monthly year - on - year at 4.80, export monthly year - on - year at 5.90, and M2 at 8.30 [4] Summary by Relevant Categories Government Bond Net Financing - In the 30th week (7/21 - 7/27), government bond net financing was 3036 billion, and in the 31st week (7/28 - 8/3), it was 4025 billion. As of the 30th week, the cumulative amount was 8.7 trillion, exceeding the same period last year by 4.8 trillion [1][5] Treasury Bond Net Financing - In the 30th week (7/21 - 7/27), treasury bond net financing was 107 billion, and in the 31st week (7/28 - 8/3), it was 1600 billion. As of the 30th week, the cumulative amount was 3.8 trillion, with a progress of 57.7%, exceeding the average of the past five years [7] Local Bond Net Financing - In the 30th week (7/21 - 7/27), local bond net financing was 2929 billion, and in the 31st week (7/28 - 8/3), it was 2425 billion. As of the 30th week, the cumulative amount was 4.9 trillion, exceeding the same period last year by 3 trillion [1][9] New General Bond - In the 30th week (7/21 - 7/27), new general bond issuance was 233 billion, and in the 31st week (7/28 - 8/3), it was 209 billion. As of the 30th week, the cumulative amount was 5174 billion, with a progress of 64.7%, exceeding the same period last year [1][9] New Special Bond - In the 30th week (7/21 - 7/27), new special bond issuance was 2054 billion, and in the 31st week (7/28 - 8/3), it was 1832 billion. As of the 30th week, the cumulative amount was 2.6 trillion, with a progress of 59.0%, exceeding the same period last year [2][12] - Special new special bonds of 7769 billion have been issued, with 2878 billion issued in July, accounting for 47% of new special bonds. The 8000 - billion quota may be issued by the third quarter [12] - Land reserve special bonds of 2639 billion have been issued. As of July 27, 27 provinces and cities have announced relevant progress, covering 4658 plots of land with a total capital scale of 5181 billion [2][12] Special Refinancing Bond - In the 30th week (7/21 - 7/27), special refinancing bond issuance was 119 billion, and in the 31st week (7/28 - 8/3), it was 454 billion. As of the 30th week, the cumulative amount was 1.8 trillion, with a issuance progress of 92% [2][25] Urban Investment Bond - In the 30th week (7/21 - 7/27), urban investment bond net financing was - 306 billion, and in the 31st week (7/28 - 8/3), it is expected to be - 287 billion. As of this week, the balance of urban investment bonds is about 10.3 trillion [2][29]

Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Outperform" compared to the market, marking its first rating [2]. Core Insights - The printed circuit board (PCB) is widely used in the electronics field, with electrical performance being a key indicator for PCB iteration. It is referred to as the "mother of electronic products" [3]. - The demand for high-end copper-clad laminates (CCL) is driven by the rapid deployment of AI applications and increased capital expenditure by tech giants in AI servers. The shipment of AI servers is expected to rise significantly, with a notable increase in the number of CCL layers required for high-performance servers [3]. - Electronic resins play a crucial role in the performance of CCLs, with various types of resins being used, including biphenyl resin, polyphenylene ether resin, and hydrocarbon resin, the latter showing significant development potential [3]. - The properties of glass fiber and fillers significantly impact the characteristics of CCLs, with domestic companies expected to enter the supply chain rapidly [3]. - Investment recommendations highlight that Shengquan Group has successfully developed polyphenylene ether (PPO/PPE) resin and established a fully automated production line with a capacity of 1,300 tons per year [3]. Summary by Sections 1. PCB Industry Chain Overview - The PCB serves as a key electronic interconnection component, with its upstream primarily consisting of copper foil, glass fiber cloth, and resin. CCL is an important intermediate product in PCB manufacturing [9][12]. 2. High-End PCB Downstream Demand - The global AI infrastructure market is projected to grow from $27.94 billion in 2024 to $32.98 billion in 2025, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 18.01% from 2025 to 2033 [32]. - The shipment of AI servers is expected to reach 2.131 million units in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 27.6% [32]. - The demand for high-speed PCBs is increasing due to the high data transmission speed requirements of AI servers, with some high-end AI servers already utilizing M8-level CCLs [40]. 3. PCB Resins - Electronic resins are the only organic materials in CCL production that can be designed for specific properties, significantly affecting the dielectric performance and environmental stability of the boards [57][59]. - Commonly used resins include epoxy resin, cyanate ester resin, and hydrocarbon resin, with hydrocarbon resin currently being a hot development area due to its excellent properties [80]. 4. PCB Glass Fiber - Glass fiber is a key material in PCB manufacturing, with electronic-grade glass fiber being a high-end product that provides excellent thermal and chemical resistance [96]. - The report categorizes electronic cloth into high-end, mid-range, and low-end based on thickness and functionality, with specific applications tailored to different performance requirements [94][96].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector [5] Core Insights - The pharmaceutical sector is experiencing a shift from price competition to quality and value competition due to the new procurement policies aimed at alleviating the low-price competition dilemma [2][11] - There is increasing policy support for innovative drugs and medical devices, which is expected to accelerate the development of high-end domestic medical devices [18] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The overall A-share market rose by 1.70%, with the biotechnology sector outperforming at a 1.90% increase [23] - The medical services sector led the gains with a 6.73% increase, while chemical pharmaceuticals saw a decline of 1.23% [23] Procurement Policy Changes - The 11th batch of centralized procurement emphasizes "anti-involution," allowing medical institutions to choose based on brand and requiring the lowest bidders to justify their pricing [17][15] - This policy aims to shift focus from aggressive price competition to quality and value, benefiting leading companies in the industry [15][17] Support for Innovation - Recent announcements from the National Medical Products Administration and the National Healthcare Security Administration indicate a commitment to support the innovation of high-end medical devices and drugs [18] - The average annual growth rate of healthcare spending on innovative drugs is projected at 40% from 2020 to 2024 [18] Company Earnings Forecasts and Ratings - Major companies such as Mindray Medical, WuXi AppTec, and Aier Eye Hospital are rated as "Outperform" with projected earnings growth [4] - Mindray Medical is expected to see a rise in net profit from 116.7 billion in 2024 to 161.9 billion by 2027, with a PE ratio decreasing from 24.1 to 17.4 over the same period [4] Recommended Stocks - Mindray Medical is highlighted for its strong R&D and sales capabilities, benefiting from domestic healthcare infrastructure and product upgrades [33] - WuXi AppTec is noted for its comprehensive service capabilities in the new drug development sector, poised to benefit from the global outsourcing market [33] - Aier Eye Hospital is recognized for its rapid expansion in the eye care sector, supported by a strong brand and operational capabilities [33]

Core Insights - The report provides a summary of recommended stocks across various industries for August 2025, highlighting their investment logic and potential growth opportunities [2][3]. Financial and Valuation Summary - **Oriental Fortune (300059.SZ)**: Expected EPS of 0.69 in 2025 with a PE ratio of 35.04, benefiting from high elasticity and a mature community operation model [3]. - **Atour (ATAT.O)**: Projected EPS of 15.1 in 2025 and a low PE of 2.31, with strong retail performance and ongoing product iteration expected to drive growth [3]. - **Times New Material (600458.SH)**: Anticipated EPS of 0.79 in 2025, with a PE of 16.39, supported by new material business expansion and overseas market opportunities [3]. - **Dongpeng Beverage (605499.SH)**: Forecasted EPS of 11.56 in 2025 and a PE of 24.80, with strong revenue growth in specialty drinks and ongoing national expansion [3]. - **Youran Dairy (9858.HK)**: Expected EPS of 0.17 in 2025 with a PE of 21.29, positioned to benefit from rising beef and milk prices in the domestic market [3]. - **Bear Electric (002959.SZ)**: Projected EPS of 2.34 in 2025 and a PE of 21.06, with recovery in demand anticipated due to national subsidy policies [3]. - **Huahong Semiconductor (1347.HK)**: Expected EPS of 0.1 in 2025 with a high PE of 423.50, benefiting from high capacity utilization and local supply chain advantages [3]. - **ZTE Corporation (000063.SZ)**: Anticipated EPS of 1.84 in 2025 and a PE of 19.07, with growth driven by AI server sales and nuclear power projects [3]. - **China General Nuclear Power (003816.SZ)**: Projected EPS of 0.21 in 2025 with a PE of 17.76, with stable earnings from nuclear projects expected to enhance cash flow [3]. - **Xugong Machinery (000425.SZ)**: Expected EPS of 0.86 in 2025 and a low PE of 9.98, with growth potential in both domestic and overseas markets [3].

证券研究报告 | 2025年07月30日 关注后续发行人申请情况 ——香港金管局稳定币发行人监管制度文件点评 |  | 行业研究·行业快评 | | 银行  | 投资评级：优于大市（维持）  | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 王剑 | 021-60875165 | wangjian@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980518070002 | | 证券分析师： | 张绪政 | 021-60875166 | zhangxuzheng@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980525040003 | | 证券分析师： | 陈俊良 | 021-60933163 | chenjunliang@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980519010001 | 事项： 香港金融管理局于 7 月 29 日就 2025 年 8 月 1 日起实施的稳定币发行人监管制度发布以下文件：《持牌稳 定币发行人监管指引》《打击洗钱及恐怖分子资金筹集指引（持牌稳定币发行人适用）》，与发牌制度及 申请程序相关的《稳定币发行人发牌制度摘要说明》，以及 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the tungsten industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The tungsten industry chain extends from exploration and mining of tungsten ore to smelting and deep processing, ultimately applied in various industrial fields. The upstream focuses on black and white tungsten ore, while the midstream involves the smelting of tungsten concentrate, ammonium paratungstate (APT), and tungsten powder. The downstream includes the processing of tungsten materials, tungsten wires, and hard alloys, with demand coming from sectors like machinery manufacturing, automotive, and electronics [2][6] - As of July 23, 2023, the prices for tungsten products have seen significant increases compared to the beginning of the year, with black tungsten concentrate at 185,000 RMB/ton (up 29.4%), APT at 272,000 RMB/ton (up 28.9%), tungsten powder at 405 RMB/kg (up 28.2%), and tungsten carbide powder at 395 RMB/kg (up 27.0%) [2][16] - The supply of tungsten is tightening, with the first batch of mining indicators for 2023-2025 showing a decrease in quotas, leading to expectations of a supply shortage. China's tungsten resources are abundant, holding the world's largest tungsten reserves and production, but total control policies have gradually lowered production levels [2][29] - Demand for tungsten is expected to grow, particularly in the fields of new energy vehicles and military applications, with the APT operating rate at historical highs. The demand for high-end hard alloys is resilient, supporting mid-to-high-end tungsten prices [2][16] - The tungsten supply-demand balance indicates a projected shortage of 2,919 tons in 2025, with prices expected to continue rising. Demand is anticipated to grow at a rate of 4.9% to 6.3% from 2025 to 2027, while supply is expected to increase by only 2,000 tons annually [2][16] - Key companies in the tungsten industry include Xiamen Tungsten, which has a full industry chain layout and is rapidly increasing its photovoltaic tungsten wire production; Zhongtung High-tech, a leader in hard alloys with significant raw material supply advantages; and Zhangyuan Tungsten, which has prominent resource advantages and improved deep processing profitability [2][16] Summary by Sections Tungsten Price Review - The tungsten prices have shown a steady increase over the past five years, correlating positively with PMI [9][12] Supply: Decrease in Mining Indicators - The first batch of mining indicators for 2023-2025 shows a reduction, with 2025's indicators down by 6.45%. This reduction reinforces expectations of a tight supply [2][16] Demand: Growth Driven by Photovoltaic Tungsten Wire - The demand for tungsten is expected to increase, particularly in high-end applications, with a projected consumption of 71,000 tons in 2024, reflecting a growth rate of 3.5% [2][6] Supply-Demand Balance: Expanding Shortage - The tungsten supply-demand balance indicates a growing shortage, with projected deficits increasing from 2,919 tons in 2025 to 9,020 tons by 2027 [2][16] Company Analysis - Xiamen Tungsten is expanding its photovoltaic tungsten wire production, while Zhongtung High-tech is a leader in hard alloys with strong raw material supply advantages [2][16]

Group 1: Industry Overview - The sportswear industry is experiencing internal differentiation, with overall sales growth driven by volume rather than price, particularly in the outdoor category which saw a sales increase of 9.9% and an average price increase of 15.5% [6][7] - International brands are showing a polarized performance; Nike's sales dropped by 13.9% while Adidas achieved a strong growth of 18% through aggressive pricing strategies [6][7] - Domestic brands are recovering some market share driven by running shoes, with Anta and Li Ning showing mixed results in sales performance [7] Group 2: Company Performance - Dongpeng Beverage reported a 36.4% year-on-year revenue increase in H1 2025, with a net profit growth of 37.2% [14][15] - The company’s product categories showed significant growth, particularly in electrolyte water and other beverages, with revenue increases of 213.6% and 65.2% respectively [15][16] - Dongpeng's investment in marketing and new product launches is expected to enhance profitability, with projected revenues for 2025-2027 revised upwards [17] Group 3: Financial Engineering Insights - The market for small and micro-cap stocks, represented by the CSI 2000 index, has shown significant resilience and growth, outperforming larger indices with a 64% increase since September 2024 [18][19] - The liquidity easing measures by the central bank have positively impacted small and micro-cap stocks, enhancing their market performance [18][19] - The CSI 2000 ETF has provided substantial excess returns since its inception, indicating strong investment opportunities in this segment [19] Group 4: Transportation Industry Insights - The express delivery sector is expected to see reduced competition due to the "anti-involution" policy, which aims to improve service quality and stabilize pricing [11][12] - The shipping industry is facing a softening of oil prices, with expectations of a bottoming out in shipping rates during the summer [10][11] - The aviation sector is experiencing a decline in flight volumes post-peak summer season, but there are expectations for price stabilization in the domestic market [11][12]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods Model Name: Black Swan Index - **Construction Idea**: Measure the extremity of market transactions based on the deviation of style factor returns[24][25] - **Construction Process**: 1. Calculate the daily return deviation of style factors: $$ \sigma_{s,t}=\frac{\bar{r}_{s,t}-\bar{r}_{s}}{\sigma_{s}} $$ where $\bar{r}_{s,t}$ is the daily return of style factor $s$ on day $t$, $\bar{r}_{s}$ is the average daily return of style factor $s$ over the entire sample period, and $\sigma_{s}$ is the standard deviation of daily returns of style factor $s$ over the entire sample period[25] 2. Calculate the Black Swan Index: $$ BlackSwan_{t}=\frac{1}{N}\times\sum_{s\in S}\left|\sigma_{s,t}\right| $$ where $BlackSwan_{t}$ is the Black Swan Index on day $t$, $S$ is the set of all style factors, and $N$ is the number of style factors[25] - **Evaluation**: The Black Swan Index effectively captures the extremity of market transactions, indicating higher probabilities of extreme tail risks[24][25] Model Name: Heuristic Style Classification for Cognitive Risk Control - **Construction Idea**: Address the discrepancy between individual and collective cognition in style classification to control cognitive risk[80][81] - **Construction Process**: 1. Calculate the value and growth factors for each stock based on predefined metrics[85] 2. Construct value and growth portfolios by selecting the top 10% and bottom 10% stocks based on factor scores[82] 3. Perform time-series regression to classify stocks into value, growth, or balanced styles: $$ r_{t,t}\sim\beta_{\mathit{Value}}\cdot r_{\mathit{Value},t}+\beta_{\mathit{Growth}}\cdot r_{\mathit{Growth},t}+\varepsilon_{t} $$ subject to $0\leq\beta_{\mathit{Value}}\leq1$, $0\leq\beta_{\mathit{Growth}}\leq1$, and $\beta_{\mathit{Value}}+\beta_{\mathit{Growth}}=1$[97] 4. Use weighted least squares (WLS) to estimate regression coefficients based on the most differentiated trading days[98] - **Evaluation**: The heuristic style classification method captures market consensus more accurately than traditional factor scoring methods, reducing cognitive risk[80][81] Model Name: Louvain Community Detection for Hidden Risk Control - **Construction Idea**: Cluster stocks based on excess return correlations to identify hidden risks[116][117] - **Construction Process**: 1. Calculate weighted correlation of excess returns between stocks: $$ Corr_{w}(X,Y)=\frac{Cov_{w}(X,Y)}{\sigma_{w,X}\cdot\sigma_{w,Y}}=\frac{\sum_{i=1}^{n}w_{i}(x_{i}-\overline{X_{w}})(y_{i}-\overline{Y_{w}})}{\sqrt{\sum_{i=1}^{n}w_{i}(x_{i}-\overline{X_{w}})^{2}}\cdot\sqrt{\sum_{i=1}^{n}w_{i}(y_{i}-\overline{Y_{w}})^{2}}} $$ where $w_{i}$ is the weight for day $i$, reflecting market volatility[118] 2. Use Louvain algorithm to cluster stocks based on weighted correlation matrix[117] 3. Ensure clusters have at least 20 stocks and remove clusters with fewer stocks[121] - **Evaluation**: The Louvain community detection method effectively identifies hidden risks by clustering stocks with similar return patterns, which traditional risk models may overlook[116][117] Model Name: Dynamic Style Factor Control - **Construction Idea**: Control style factors dynamically based on their volatility clustering effect[128][129] - **Construction Process**: 1. Identify style factors with high volatility or significant volatility increase: $$ \text{High volatility: Rolling 3-month volatility in top 3} $$ $$ \text{Volatility increase: Rolling 3-month volatility > historical mean + 1 standard deviation} $$ 2. Set the exposure of these style factors to zero in the portfolio[136] - **Evaluation**: Dynamic style factor control captures major market risks without significantly affecting portfolio returns, leveraging the predictability of volatility clustering[128][129] Model Name: Adaptive Stock Deviation Control under Target Tracking Error - **Construction Idea**: Adjust stock deviation based on tracking error to control portfolio risk[146][147] - **Construction Process**: 1. Calculate rolling 3-month tracking error for different stock deviation levels[153] 2. Set the maximum stock deviation that keeps tracking error within the target range[153] - **Evaluation**: Adaptive stock deviation control effectively reduces tracking error during high market volatility, maintaining portfolio stability[146][147] Model Backtest Results Traditional CSI 500 Enhanced Index - **Annualized Excess Return**: 18.77%[5][162] - **Maximum Drawdown**: 9.68%[5][162] - **Information Ratio (IR)**: 3.56[5][162] - **Return-to-Drawdown Ratio**: 1.94[5][162] - **Annualized Tracking Error**: 4.88%[5][162] CSI 500 Enhanced Index with Full-Process Risk Control - **Annualized Excess Return**: 16.51%[5][169] - **Maximum Drawdown**: 4.90%[5][169] - **Information Ratio (IR)**: 3.94[5][169] - **Return-to-Drawdown Ratio**: 3.37[5][169] - **Annualized Tracking Error**: 3.98%[5][169]