2025 年 3 月 17 日 强烈推荐/维持 越秀交通基建 公司报告 事件：公司发布 24 年年报，全年实现收入 38.7 亿元，同比下降 2.5%，其中路 费收入 37.9 亿元，同比下降 1.4%。归母净利润 6.57 亿元，同比下降 14.2%， 公司业绩符合预期。 越秀交通基建（01052.HK）：平临高速将增厚 25 年业绩，收费权摊销略高于预期 极端天气和部分路段的路网分流导致报告期收入端有所下降：24 年公司路费收 入下降的原因主要系：1. 我国中东部地区受 24 年春节前后大范围雨雪低温冰冻 天气影响；2. 报告期节假日免费通行天数较 23 年多 3 天；3. 部分项目受路网分 流影响。 路网分流方面，具体到各个路产：1. 公司核心路产广州北二环高速收入同比下降 6.2%，主要系 23 年 10 月开始与北二环高速相连的从浦高速开通，导致部分车 流行驶路径缩短；2. 湖北汉蔡高速收入同比下降 8.3%，除了极端天气影响外， 23 年平行路段封闭施工导致基数较高也是 24 年收入下降的因素；3. 湖北汉鄂高 速和大广南高速收入分别同比增长 58.1%和下降 11.9%，主要系武黄高速封闭施 工 ...

食品饮料行业：市场预期逐渐改变， 关注短期估值修复行情 事件：近日，中共中央办公厅、国务院办公厅印发《提振消费专项行动方案》， 并发出通知，部署 8 方面 30 项重点任务。 提振消费政策面持续催化。延续《政府工作报告》提出大力提振消费的政策部 署，16 日《提振消费专项行动方案》由中共中央办公厅、国务院办公厅印发， 旨在全方位扩大国内需求，提升消费能力，优化消费环境。17 日介绍提振消 费有关情况的国务院新闻发布会将召开。预期接下来会有更为明确的政策陆续 出台。 《方案》针对性解决制约消费的突出矛盾问题。此次《方案》提出了七大行动， 包括：城乡居民增收促进行动、消费能力保障支持行动、服务消费提质惠民行 动、大宗消费更新升级行动、消费品质提升行动、消费环境改善提升行动、限 制措施清理优化行动。《方案》瞄准了消费能力、消费供给、消费环境、消费 领域的限制性政策等一系列影响消费的重要因素，提出了多项具体举措，进一 步推动消费潜力的释放。 经济逐渐磨底，政策提振有望改善市场预期。随着一系列刺激消费政策的出台， 以及近期经济数据显示经济进入磨底期，市场对消费需求复苏的预期有望得到 扭转。延续此前的研究观点，白酒价格与 ...

宁波高发（603788.SH）：受益汽车 电动智能化趋势，公司强成本控制、 高效率将持续领先 公司为汽车变速操纵控制系统龙头企业。成立于 1999 年，实控人为钱氏家族， 主营产品包括汽车变速操纵系统总成、电子油门踏板和汽车拉索等三大类， 2023 年营收占比分别为 51%/18%/18%。公司客户充分覆盖吉利、比亚迪、长 城、长安、赛力斯、奇瑞等几十家国内头部主机厂。 2025 年 3 月 17 日 推荐/首次 宁波高发 公司报告 公司简介： 宁波高发汽车控制系统股份有限公司专业 从事汽车变速操纵控制系统和加速控制系 统产品的研发、生产和销售，主要产品包括 汽车变速操纵系统总成、电子油门踏板和汽 车拉索等三大类。 资料来源：公司公告、iFinD 电动化/智能化趋势带动电子换挡器/油门踏板产品需求增长。电子电气架构革 新推动汽车电子产品在整车中的渗透率不断提升。线控换挡系统可与自动驾驶 控制系统中自适应巡航系统、驾驶模式控制系统等结合。公司主营产品电子换 挡器、电子油门踏板等受益新能源电动化和智能化的趋势，在新能源渗透率持 续提升的背景下，产品份额有望保持增长。 自主品牌配套份额大幅领先同业，有望发力合资与海 ...

新房与二手房成交延续回稳，二手房成交强于新房。 房管局数据： 29 城新房本周销售面积(03/08-03/14)为 288.5 万平，前值(03/01-03/07)为 289.5 万平。 29 城新房年内累计销售面积(1/1-03/14)同比增速为 9.71%，前值(1/1-03/07) 为 8.25%。当月累计销售面积同比增速为 22.86%，上个月整月为 44.57%。 13 城二手房本周销售面积(03/08-03/14)为 245.2 万平，前值(03/01-03/07)为 224.6 万平。 13 城二手房年内累计销售面积 (1/1-03/14)同比增速为 35.30%，前值 (1/1-03/07)为 34.00%。当月累计销售面积同比增速为 47.18%，上个月整月为 89.88%。 12 城 新 房 及 二 手 房 本 周 销 售 面 积 (03/08-03/14)为 368.2 万平，前值 (03/01-03/07)为 354.9 万平。 12 城新房及二手房合计年内累计销售面积(1/1-03/14)同比增速为 13.88%，前 值(1/1-03/07)为 11.66%。当月累计销售面积同比增速 ...

银行行业：政府债支撑社融提速 ——2 月社融金融数据点评 事件：3 月 14 日，中国人民银行发布 2025 年 2 月社融金融数据。 观点总结：1-2 月社融同比多增，存量社融增速升至 8.2%，主要贡献在于今年 政府债靠前发力。而实体贷款投放偏弱，一方面是 1 月储备项目大额投放有所 透支、2 月信贷需求较弱，另一方面，也有化债置换的影响。M1 增速环比放 缓，企业存款活化进程仍然偏慢，居民存款定期化延续。展望全年，在积极财 政政策和适度宽松的货币政策下，政府债有望维持高速扩张支撑社融增长；企 业、居民融资需求修复尚待观察，叠加隐债置换扰动，预计信贷增速低于社融。 点评： 1、社融：政府债支撑社融增速环比提升至 8.2%。1-2 月社融新增 9.29 万亿， 同比多增 1.32 万亿；政府债券为主要多增贡献，贷款增量同比基本持平。存 量社融同比+8.2%，环比提升 0.2pct。具体来看：（1）1-2 月社融口径人民币 贷款新增 5.87 万亿，同比多增 526 亿。2 月单月新增 0.65 万亿，同比少增 0.33 万亿；或与 2 月化债置换进程有所加快，1 月银行前置投放、储备项目有所透 支有关。（2 ...

房地产周报20250317: 新房与二手 房成交延续回稳，深圳提高住房公 积金贷款额度 新房与二手房成交延续回稳，二手房成交强于新房。 房管局数据： 29 城新房本周销售面积(03/08-03/14)为 288.5 万平，前值(03/01-03/07)为 289.5 万平。 29 城新房年内累计销售面积(1/1-03/14)同比增速为 9.71%，前值(1/1-03/07) 为 8.25%。当月累计销售面积同比增速为 22.86%，上个月整月为 44.57%。 13 城二手房本周销售面积(03/08-03/14)为 245.2 万平，前值(03/01-03/07)为 224.6 万平。 13 城二手房年内累计销售面积 (1/1-03/14)同比增速为 35.30%，前值 (1/1-03/07)为 34.00%。当月累计销售面积同比增速为 47.18%，上个月整月为 89.88%。 12 城 新 房 及 二 手 房 本 周 销 售 面 积 (03/08-03/14)为 368.2 万平，前值 (03/01-03/07)为 354.9 万平。 12 城新房及二手房合计年内累计销售面积(1/1-03/14)同比增速 ...

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, recommending it for investment based on its growth potential in the PCB and semiconductor sectors [4]. Core Insights - The company is a leading player in the PCB industry, benefiting from the dual drivers of AI development and domestic substitution of storage chips. Its IC substrate business is expected to achieve breakthroughs [4]. - The company has seen a steady increase in revenue from IC packaging substrates, which accounted for 15.32% of total revenue by 2023, reflecting a growing focus on this segment [23][4]. - The global AI chip market is projected to grow significantly, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 36.6% from 2024 to 2033, which will drive demand for ABF substrates [41][3]. - The domestic storage chip market is also expected to grow, with a CAGR of 12.1% from 2024 to 2034, further boosting the demand for BT substrates [44][3]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, Shenzhen Xingsen Quick Circuit Technology Co., Ltd., specializes in the PCB industry and semiconductor testing boards, recognized as a national high-tech enterprise [5][14]. - It ranks 29th among the top 40 global PCB suppliers according to Prismark [14]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported revenue of 4.351 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.1%, but a net loss of 32 million yuan, a decrease of 116.59% compared to the previous year [29][4]. - The company has been increasing its R&D investment, with R&D expenses reaching 492 million yuan in 2023, up 28.46% year-on-year, primarily for IC packaging substrate projects [33][4]. Market Trends - The PCB industry is expected to grow at a CAGR of 5.4% from 2023 to 2028, driven by demand from sectors like AI servers and smart electric vehicles [19][3]. - The report highlights the importance of IC substrates in connecting chips to PCBs, emphasizing their critical role in the semiconductor supply chain [37][3]. Future Projections - Revenue growth is projected at 16.32%, 23.34%, and 25.66% for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with net profits expected to turn positive by 2025 [4][49]. - The company is positioned to benefit from the increasing demand for high-performance chips and the ongoing trend of domestic substitution in the semiconductor market [4][3].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Insights - The company is a leading player in the PCB industry, benefiting from the dual drivers of AI development and domestic substitution of storage chips, with significant growth potential in its IC substrate business [4][49] - The company has a stable shareholding structure and clear division of labor among its subsidiaries, enhancing operational efficiency [1][16] - The revenue growth forecast for the company is projected at 16.32%, 23.34%, and 25.66% for the years 2024 to 2026, respectively [4][49] Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, Shenzhen Xingsen Quick Circuit Technology Co., Ltd., specializes in the PCB industry and semiconductor testing boards, recognized as a national high-tech enterprise [5][14] - It ranks 29th among the top 40 global PCB suppliers according to Prismark [1][14] Business Segments - The company focuses on two core areas: PCB and semiconductor, with a growing revenue share from IC packaging substrates, which accounted for 15.32% of total revenue by 2023 [1][23] - The PCB business maintains over 75% of total revenue, with a stable gross margin historically [27][29] Market Trends - The rapid growth of the AI chip market and the acceleration of domestic storage chip substitution are expected to drive demand for IC substrates [3][41] - The global AI chip market is projected to grow from $14.4 billion in 2024 to $238.67 billion by 2033, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 36.6% [3][41] - The storage chip market is also expected to grow significantly, with China's market projected to reach $27.65 billion by 2034, growing at a rate of 12.4% [3][44] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported revenue of 4.351 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.1%, but a net loss of 32 million yuan, a decrease of 116.59% year-on-year [2][29] - R&D expenses have been increasing, reaching 492 million yuan in 2023, up 28.46% year-on-year, primarily to support the IC packaging substrate project [2][33] Future Outlook - The company is expected to achieve a turnaround in profitability by 2025, with projected net profits of 141 million yuan and 401 million yuan in 2026 [4][49] - The IC substrate business is anticipated to make significant breakthroughs, supported by ongoing investments and market demand [4][49]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its future performance [4]. Core Insights - The company is a leading player in the PCB industry, benefiting from the dual drivers of AI development and domestic substitution in the storage chip market [4][49]. - The company's revenue growth is projected to be 16.32%, 23.34%, and 25.66% for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with net profits expected to improve significantly after a loss in 2024 [4][49]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, Shenzhen Xingsen Quick Circuit Technology Co., Ltd., specializes in the PCB industry and semiconductor testing boards, recognized as a national high-tech enterprise [5][14]. - It ranks 29th among the top 40 global PCB suppliers according to Prismark [14]. Business Segments - The company focuses on two core areas: PCB and semiconductor, with a growing revenue share from IC packaging substrates, which accounted for 15.32% of total revenue by 2023 [23][4]. - The PCB business maintains over 75% of total revenue, while the IC packaging substrate segment is expected to achieve breakthroughs due to increased investment [2][4]. Market Trends - The rapid growth of the AI chip market and the acceleration of domestic storage chip substitution are anticipated to drive demand for IC substrates [3][41]. - The global AI chip market is projected to grow from $14.4 billion in 2024 to $238.67 billion by 2033, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 36.6% [3][41]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported revenue of 4.351 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.1%, but a net loss of 32 million yuan, a decrease of 116.59% compared to the previous year [2][29]. - R&D expenses have been increasing, reaching 492 million yuan in 2023, up 28.46% year-on-year, primarily to support the IC packaging substrate projects [2][33]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to see significant revenue growth driven by the AI sector and domestic market demands, with a forecasted recovery in net profits starting in 2025 [4][49]. - The investment in R&D and the expansion of production capacity are crucial for the company's future success in the competitive PCB and semiconductor markets [33][41].