Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The hotel business performance is being released, and the store structure is being optimized [7] - The company continues to optimize its development and operations, accelerating store openings while upgrading its structure [7] - The company is the third-largest hotel chain in China, backed by the Shoulu Group, which helps in resource integration [7] Financial Performance Summary - For the first half of 2025, the company reported total revenue of 3.661 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.93%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 397 million yuan, an increase of 11.08% [7] - In Q2 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 1.896 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 0.4%, and a net profit of 254 million yuan, up 7.4% year-on-year [7] - The average RevPar for all hotels in Q2 2025 was 143 yuan, down 5.7% year-on-year, while the occupancy rate was 63.9%, a decrease of 2.0 percentage points year-on-year [7] Store Expansion and Structure Optimization - As of the end of H1 2025, the company had 7,268 hotels and 531,964 rooms, representing a year-on-year increase of 12.25% and 8.12%, respectively [7] - The company opened 364 new stores in Q2 2025, with 87 economy, 99 mid-to-high-end, and 178 light management stores [7] - The proportion of mid-to-high-end hotels and rooms is 29.3% and 42.1%, respectively, with 1,750 stores signed but not yet opened [7] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is 908 million, 987 million, and 1.062 billion yuan, respectively, corresponding to PE valuations of 19, 17, and 16 times [7] - The company maintains its earnings forecast, expecting continued growth in net profit [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's profitability continues to recover, and new business layouts are accelerating to open a second growth curve [1] - The company achieved a total revenue of 9.50 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 17.77%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 330 million yuan, down 46.14% year-on-year [8] - The company is actively expanding into new fields such as humanoid robots and low-altitude economy, with significant orders received [8] - The company maintains a strong focus on R&D, having obtained 276 patents, including 39 invention patents as of the first half of 2025 [8] - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 26.2 billion yuan, 30.1 billion yuan, and 34.7 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 1.5 billion yuan, 1.8 billion yuan, and 2.5 billion yuan [8] Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 2,422 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 31.96% [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2023 is estimated at 109.22 million yuan, showing a slight decrease of 0.27% year-on-year [1] - The latest diluted EPS for 2025 is projected to be 0.31 yuan per share, with a P/E ratio of 38.41 [1] - The company’s gross margin for Q2 2025 is reported at 14.63%, with a net profit margin of 5.04% [8] - The company’s total assets are projected to reach 3,852 million yuan by 2025, with total liabilities of 975 million yuan [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][11] Core Views - The value of instant delivery services is increasingly highlighted in the logistics sector, with significant revenue growth in the last-mile delivery business in the first half of 2025. The revenue from last-mile delivery services reached 4.457 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 56.9%, driven by an increase in penetration within SF Holding's express delivery volume [3] - The company's overall revenue from subsidiaries of SF Holding grew by 63% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, indicating strong performance and operational efficiency [3] - The company is actively expanding services such as "same-day delivery" and multi-scenario urban logistics services, which are expected to continue driving rapid growth in the last-mile business [3] Financial Summary - The company's total revenue for 2023 is projected at 12.39 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 20.69%. By 2025, revenue is expected to reach 21.485 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 36.44% [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 50.6 million yuan in 2023, increasing to 254.27 million yuan by 2025, representing a substantial year-on-year growth of 91.96% [1] - The latest diluted EPS is expected to rise from 0.06 yuan in 2023 to 0.28 yuan in 2025, indicating a positive trend in earnings per share [1] - The company's gross margin remains stable, while the sales, research and development, and management expense ratios have decreased, contributing to a net profit margin increase of 0.4 percentage points to 1.3% in the first half of 2025 [4] - The report projects a significant increase in net profit for 2025-2027, with estimates adjusted to 254 million yuan, 373 million yuan, and 497 million yuan respectively [11]

Group 1: ETF Holdings and Trends - As of mid-2025, Huijin holds A-share ETFs totaling 1.29 trillion yuan, accounting for 42% of the total A-share ETF market[7] - Huijin's holdings in broad-based ETFs amount to 1.28 trillion yuan, an increase of 236.3 billion yuan from the end of 2024[9] - Industry and thematic ETFs held by Huijin are valued at 4.64 billion yuan and 2.28 billion yuan, respectively, with increases of 450 million yuan and 80 million yuan compared to the end of 2024[9] Group 2: Macro and Micro Liquidity - The central bank's net injection in the open market reached 496.1 billion yuan, maintaining a balanced and loose liquidity environment[19] - Money market rates have increased but remain within a controllable range, with R007 and DR007 rates rising by 3.3bp and 4.9bp, respectively[22] - A-share market saw a significant increase in trading volume, with daily average trading amount reaching 29.83 billion yuan, a 15.3% increase from the previous period[26] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Fund Flows - Retail investor sentiment is warming up, with net inflows of 113.4 billion yuan from retail investors, a 10.2% increase from the previous period[34] - Leverage funds saw a net inflow of 105.3 billion yuan, marking a new high for the year, with the financing balance reaching 2.25 trillion yuan[38] - Foreign capital inflows increased, with the northbound trading volume averaging 387.6 billion yuan, a rise of 53.6 billion yuan from the previous period[42]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the construction materials industry [1] Core Views - The construction materials sector is expected to benefit from a slight recovery in cement demand, particularly in southern regions as rainfall decreases. However, demand in areas like Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Shandong, and Henan is weakening due to stricter environmental controls [2][14] - The report highlights the potential for price increases in cement, driven by improved demand and supply-side discipline, with a focus on leading companies such as Conch Cement and Huaxin Cement [4][5] - The report emphasizes the importance of government policies aimed at boosting domestic demand and stabilizing the real estate market, which are expected to positively impact the home improvement and building materials sectors [17] Summary by Sections 1. Sector Overview - The construction materials sector saw a slight increase in the PMI for August, indicating a seasonal uptick in activity, particularly in major infrastructure projects initiated in July [4] - The construction materials index showed a marginal increase of 0.14% during the week, underperforming compared to the broader market indices [4] 2. Bulk Construction Materials 2.1 Cement - The national average price for high-standard cement is reported at 344.3 RMB/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 1.7 RMB/ton but a year-on-year decrease of 35.2 RMB/ton [22][23] - The average cement inventory level among sample enterprises is 63.6%, down 1.0 percentage points from the previous week [25] - The report anticipates a potential price stabilization and recovery in the cement market, particularly in the second half of the year [5][14] 2.2 Glass - The average price for float glass is reported at 1189.7 RMB/ton, down 16.1 RMB/ton from the previous week and down 176.6 RMB/ton year-on-year [4] - The report suggests that supply-side adjustments are likely to improve the supply-demand balance in the glass industry, with a focus on leading companies benefiting from cost advantages [16] 2.3 Fiberglass - The report notes a stable pricing environment for fiberglass, with the average price for non-alkali roving at 3100-3700 RMB/ton, remaining stable compared to previous periods [4] - The demand for specialty fiberglass products is expected to grow significantly, driven by technological advancements and increased applications in various industries [15] 3. Home Improvement Materials - The report highlights the positive impact of government policies aimed at stimulating domestic consumption, particularly in the home improvement sector, with expectations for a recovery in demand [17] - Leading companies in the home improvement materials sector are encouraged to explore new business models and enhance their market positioning [17]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for both A and H shares of China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) [1] Core Views - CNOOC's oil and gas production is rapidly increasing, with significant cost reduction and efficiency improvement [1] - The company achieved a revenue of 207.6 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 8.45%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 69.5 billion yuan, down 12.79% year-on-year [7] - The report highlights the successful launch of projects contributing to production growth, with actual oil and gas net production reaching 385 million barrels of oil equivalent in H1 2025, a 6% increase year-on-year [7] - CNOOC's capital expenditure decreased by 9% year-on-year to 57.6 billion yuan in H1 2025, with a projected budget of 125 to 135 billion yuan for the year [7] - The company has maintained excellent cost control, with a major oil cost of 26.94 USD per barrel in H1 2025, a decrease of 2.9% year-on-year [7] - CNOOC plans to distribute a dividend of 0.73 HKD per share, maintaining a payout ratio of 45.5% [7] - The report adjusts profit forecasts for 2025-2027, with net profits projected at 141.2 billion yuan, 144.7 billion yuan, and 149.7 billion yuan respectively [7] Financial Summary - For 2025, the total revenue is projected to be 409.9 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 2.53% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 141.2 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 2.36% [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 2.97 yuan for 2025, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 8.73 for A shares and 6.23 for H shares [1][7] - The company aims for oil and gas production targets of 760-780 million barrels of oil equivalent in 2025, increasing to 810-830 million barrels by 2027 [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Alibaba-W (09988.HK) [1] Core Insights - The company's revenue for FY2026Q1 reached RMB 247.65 billion, showing a year-on-year growth of 1.8% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 4.7%, although it fell short of the consensus estimate of RMB 253.17 billion. Excluding disposed businesses, the same-caliber revenue grew by 10% year-on-year [12][29] - Adjusted net profit for the same quarter was RMB 33.51 billion, down 17.6% year-on-year but up 12.3% quarter-on-quarter, also below the consensus estimate of RMB 38.44 billion [12][29] - The Chinese e-commerce group's revenue grew by 10% year-on-year to RMB 140.07 billion, with customer management revenue reaching RMB 89.25 billion, up 11.4% year-on-year [18][29] - Alibaba Cloud's revenue significantly exceeded expectations, growing by 26% year-on-year to RMB 33.398 billion, driven by increased adoption of AI-related products [21][29] Revenue Performance - The company's revenue for FY2026Q1 was RMB 247.65 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 1.8% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 4.7% [12] - The Chinese e-commerce group's revenue reached RMB 140.07 billion, reflecting a 10% year-on-year growth [18] - International digital commerce revenue grew by 19% year-on-year to RMB 34.741 billion, primarily driven by strong performance in cross-border business [21] Profitability Analysis - Adjusted EBITA margin for the Chinese e-commerce group was 27%, down 21% year-on-year, mainly due to investments in "Taobao Flash Sale" and user experience [18] - Adjusted net profit for FY2026Q1 was RMB 33.51 billion, down 17.6% year-on-year [12][29] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The report adjusts the Non-GAAP net profit forecasts for FY2026, FY2027, and FY2028 to RMB 120.96 billion, RMB 173.84 billion, and RMB 222.29 billion, respectively [29] - Corresponding PE ratios (Non-GAAP) for FY2026, FY2027, and FY2028 are projected to be 17, 12, and 9 times [29]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights significant growth in the shipment of coated carbon foil and anticipates an improvement in the profitability of battery foil [1] - The company has experienced a substantial increase in sales volume for battery foil and coated carbon foil, with the latter seeing a nearly 50% year-on-year increase due to strong demand in energy storage [7] - The report projects that the company's revenue will grow from 19,064 million RMB in 2023 to 29,823 million RMB by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 8.45% [1][8] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to recover from a decline in 2024 to 754.80 million RMB by 2027, indicating a growth rate of 25.45% [1][8] - The report estimates that the company will achieve a diluted EPS of 0.81 RMB by 2027, with a corresponding P/E ratio decreasing from 30.96 in 2024 to 12.35 in 2027 [1][8] Financial Summary - For the first half of 2025, the company reported a revenue of 13.31 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 15.9%, and a net profit of 190 million RMB, up 2.3% year-on-year [7] - The gross margin for the first half of 2025 was 8.8%, slightly down by 1.1 percentage points compared to the previous year [7] - The company plans to expand its production capacity for light foil at an annual rate of 5-10% and for coated carbon foil at an annual rate of 20-30% [7] - The report anticipates that the company's operating cash flow will improve, with a significant increase of 49.4% year-on-year in the first half of 2025 [7] - Capital expenditures have decreased by 39.6% in the first half of 2025, indicating a more cautious investment approach [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for BYD is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that domestic competition is intensifying, impacting profitability, while the company is committed to expanding overseas and pursuing a high-end strategy [1] - The company is expected to achieve nearly 5 million vehicle sales in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 15%-18%, including approximately 1 million exports [9] - The report anticipates a recovery in profitability in the second half of the year, with a projected net profit of 45 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a 12% increase [9] Financial Forecasts - Total revenue is projected to reach 924.48 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 18.97% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 45.02 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 11.83% [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 4.94 yuan in 2025, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 23.10 [1] Market Data - The closing price of BYD is 109.70 yuan, with a market capitalization of approximately 1,000.16 billion yuan [6] - The company has a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.58 and a total circulating A-share market value of approximately 382.55 billion yuan [6] Operational Insights - The report notes that the company's H1 revenue was 371.3 billion yuan, a 23% increase year-on-year, while the gross margin was 18%, down 2.0 percentage points [9] - The average selling price per vehicle in H1 2025 was 153,000 yuan, a decrease of 2% year-on-year, with a net profit per vehicle of 7,000 yuan, down 15% [9] - R&D expenses are expected to continue increasing, with a significant operating cash flow of 233 billion yuan in Q2 2025, reflecting a 489% increase [9]

证券研究报告 东吴证券晨会纪要 东吴证券晨会纪要 2025-09-02 宏观策略 [Table_MacroStrategy] 宏观深度报告 20250901：补贴与竞争：哪些地区和行业内卷更严重？— —统一大市场系列研究之一 土地补贴和财税补贴是地方政府间横向竞争的工具。我们尝试量化产业 政策中土地和财税补贴的规模，并识别哪些地区和行业的税负率更低。土 地补贴方面，按照价差计算，2017-2024 年 70 城工业部门获得的土地补 贴年均 1.45 万亿，占全国 GDP 的 1.3%左右；财税补贴方面，按照与法 定税率的差距来算，2023 年制造业的企业所得税税收优惠约 7300 亿，占 GDP 的 0.56%。结合地区和行业来看，可以识别内卷程度，汽车制造业、 电气机械、电子设备等行业大多是中西部省份内卷更严重，存在利润率和 税负率双低的情况，具体见 2.2.4。近年来，面临房地产市场下行、"反内 卷"规范地方政府补贴、消费税改革等三大变革，传统的横向竞争模式正 在迎来转变，地方政府将从"逐底竞争"转向"逐顶竞争"。 风险提示： （1）房地产和土地市场变化，对地方政府行为影响较大，如果未来房地 产市场出现趋 ...