证券研究报告·行业研究·汽车与零部件 客车6月月报： 5月产批同比提升，出口持续向好 推荐客车板块，优选【宇通+金龙】 2 ◼ 客车这轮大周期驱动因素是什么？一句话总结：客车代表中国汽车制造业将成为【技术 输出】的世界龙头。这不是梦想而是会真真切切反应到报表层面。海外市场业绩贡献对 客车行业在3-5年会至少再造一个中国市场。背后支撑因素： （ ➢ 1）天时：符合国家【中特估】大方向，客车是【一带一路】的有力践行者，已有10余 年的出海经验，在新的国际形势变化下，将进一步跟紧国家战略，让中国优势制造业 【走出去】。 ➢ 2）地利：客车的技术与产品已经具备世界一流水平。新能源客车产品维度，中国客车 已领先海外竞争对手。传统客车维度，技术已不亚于海外且具备更好性价比及服务。 ➢ 3）人和：国内市场价格战结束不会成为拖累反而会共振。过去6-7年国内客车"高铁冲 击+新能源公交透支+三年疫情"三重因素叠加经历了长期的价格战，2022下半年宇通已 率先提价，且需求本身得益【旅游复苏+公交车更新需求】有望重回2019年水平。 推荐客车板块，优选【宇通+金龙】 ➢【宇通客车】是"三好学生典范"，具备高成长+高分红属性。我们预 ...

证券研究报告·行业点评报告·非银金融 ◼ 风险提示：宏观经济不及预期；政策趋紧抑制行业创新；市场竞争加剧。 2025 年 06 月 18 日 证券分析师 孙婷 执业证书：S0600524120001 sunt@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 何婷 执业证书：S0600524120009 heting@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 曹锟 执业证书：S0600524120004 caok@dwzq.com.cn 非银金融行业点评报告 金融开放与资本市场改革迈出新一步，推动 金融更好服务实体经济 增持（维持） [投资要点 Table_Summary] 行业走势 -11% -4% 3% 10% 17% 24% 31% 38% 45% 52% 2024/6/18 2024/10/17 2025/2/15 2025/6/16 非银金融 沪深300 相关研究 《广发中证港股通非银 ETF （513750.SH）：低估值筑基，高业绩 领航，稳健收益与优质配置并进 》 2025-06-17 《金融新基建的崛起，香港监管框架 下的机遇与挑战》 2025-06-16 东吴证券研究所 1 / 2 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声 ...

Export Changes - Since Trump's administration, China's export structure has adjusted, with a decrease in the share of exports to the U.S. and an increase to ASEAN and Africa, while exports to the EU have rebounded after two years of decline[11] - In the first five months of 2025, China's exports to the U.S. accounted for approximately 11.9%, down 2.7 percentage points from 2024, while exports to ASEAN, Africa, and the EU increased to 17.8%, 5.6%, and 14.7% respectively[11] - By the end of 2024, China's export share of global exports was about 15.0%, rising to approximately 15.4% in Q1 2025, indicating a recovery in global market share[11] High-Frequency Tracking - Monitoring port cargo throughput can effectively reflect changes in China's export volume, showing a correlation with historical export trends[21] - South Korea's export growth is a key indicator of global demand, with a 5.4% increase recorded in early June 2025, suggesting a potential recovery in global demand[43] - Tracking the number of container ships from China to the U.S. provides insights into direct export trends, with a notable recovery in June but still weaker than March levels[43] Future Export Outlook - In an optimistic scenario, if the fentanyl tariffs are lifted and the exemption for reciprocal tariffs continues until the end of the year, the annual export growth rate could reach approximately 3.4%[57] - Conversely, under a baseline scenario, the annual export growth rate is expected to be around 2.1%, with risks of a decline in Q4 due to high base effects[57] - The end of the 90-day exemption period for tariffs on July 9, 2025, poses uncertainties for future export demand, as the U.S. may maintain its current tariff framework[54]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the defense and aerospace industry [1]. Core Insights - The CJ-1000A engine, developed independently in China, is set to replace the imported LEAP-1C engine for the C919 aircraft, showcasing significant technological advancements and a complete domestic supply chain [4][9]. - The global demand for commercial turbofan engines is projected to exceed 8,700 units over the next 20 years, with a market value of approximately $1.5 trillion, indicating a robust growth opportunity for the Chinese aviation sector [22][23]. - The CJ-1000A is expected to capture over 50% of the domestic narrow-body market once it achieves full import substitution, with a projected annual demand of around 200 units by 2029 [23][24]. Summary by Sections 1. CJ-1000A Development - The CJ-1000A is China's first independently developed high-bypass turbofan engine, specifically designed for the C919 narrow-body aircraft, featuring advanced materials and technologies [9][11]. - The engine's thrust of 13.5 tons and a thrust-to-weight ratio of 4.5 significantly outperform the LEAP-1C engine, which has a thrust of 13 tons and a thrust-to-weight ratio of 3.3 [13][14]. 2. Market Potential - The Chinese commercial aviation engine market is expected to grow substantially, with a forecasted market size of 2.4 trillion yuan over the next 20 years, driven by the anticipated delivery of 9,000 new aircraft [22][23]. - The CJ-1000A's market demand is closely linked to the production capacity of the C919, with projections indicating a strong correlation between aircraft production and engine demand [23][24]. 3. Competitive Landscape - The global commercial aviation engine market is currently dominated by Western companies, but the emergence of the CJ-1000A is expected to disrupt this oligopoly, providing opportunities for market share growth in China [29][30]. - The CJ-1000A's development is supported by significant government investment, with over 300 billion yuan allocated to enhance its technological capabilities and market readiness [26][28]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on key segments such as high-temperature alloys and titanium alloys, which are critical for the CJ-1000A's production, and emphasizes the importance of monitoring the certification process and production ramp-up [33]. - Recommended companies for investment include航发科技, 航亚科技, and 航宇科技, which are positioned to benefit from the growth of the domestic aviation engine market [33].

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the long-term allocation value of Hong Kong dividend stocks, highlighting their resilience amid market volatility and their role as a defensive asset class [1][14][20] - From a comparative perspective, Hong Kong dividend stocks offer a higher dividend yield than A-share counterparts, with the Hang Seng High Dividend Index yielding 8.1% compared to the CSI Dividend Index's 5.8% [2][24][28] - The demand for long-term capital, particularly from insurance funds, is expected to continue supporting the allocation to dividend assets, providing a stable inflow of funds [3][33][34] Group 2 - The China Securities Index for Hong Kong Central State-Owned Enterprises focuses on high-dividend central enterprises, reflecting the performance of companies with stable dividend levels [4][39] - Since 2020, the cumulative return of the China Securities Index for Hong Kong Central State-Owned Enterprises has reached 35.0%, outperforming major A/H indices [5][40][41] - The index is heavily weighted in sectors such as energy and telecommunications, with a notably low exposure to financial and real estate sectors, allowing for differentiated investment strategies [6][46] Group 3 - The Invesco China Securities Index for Hong Kong Central State-Owned Enterprises ETF provides investors with a tool to gain exposure to the Hong Kong central enterprise dividend sector, aiming to closely track the underlying index [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the industry [1] Core Insights - The consumer-grade 3D printing market is experiencing rapid growth, with a 40% year-on-year increase in production as of May 2025 [4][9] - In April 2025, the entry-level market for consumer-grade 3D printers was the only segment to show growth, with a 26% increase in shipments, driven by strong performances from brands like TuoZhu and ChuangXiang SanWei [4][9] - Chinese manufacturers dominate the global consumer-grade 3D printer market, supplying 96% of entry-level printers worldwide in 2024 [12] - The cultural and creative industries are driving demand for consumer-grade 3D printers, allowing users to create unique DIY products [15] - The introduction of advanced products like TuoZhu's H2D printer, which can achieve speeds of over 1000 mm/s, is expected to enhance market growth [19][23] Summary by Sections 1. Consumer-grade 3D Printing Demand and Global Leadership - Consumer-grade 3D printers are designed for home or small studio use, offering advantages in size, cost, and ease of operation compared to industrial models [9] - The production of 3D printing equipment in China reached 3.778 million units in 2024, with a total export value of 8.16 billion yuan [9][12] 2. Transition from B2B to B2C in 3D Printing - The consumer-grade 3D printing sector is transitioning from a productivity tool to a consumer product, similar to the impact of Douyin on video creation [15] - The emotional value provided by 3D printing, allowing for the creation of unique items, is a key driver of demand [15] 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the rapid development of the cultural and creative industries will sustain high demand for consumer-grade 3D printers [23] - Key investment targets include JinChengZi (mirror and laser controllers), HaiZheng ShengCai (consumables), and HuiNa Technology (potential injection of 3D printing assets) [23]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company for the first time [6]. Core Views - The company is experiencing steady revenue growth, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.86% for revenue and 3.34% for net profit from 2019 to 2024. The growth is driven by strategic focus on high-end and youth-oriented products, channel breakthroughs, and organizational adaptability [12][6]. - The company has successfully positioned itself in the market by leveraging its historical heritage and cultural significance, while also appealing to younger consumers through innovative products like sparkling yellow wine [6][12]. - The management team has undergone significant changes, with a renewed focus on high-end and youth strategies, leading to consistent revenue and profit growth of over 15% in recent years [6][12]. Summary by Sections 1. Introduction - The company has shown a remarkable growth trajectory, particularly since Q2 2023, with a projected revenue increase of 15.6% and net profit growth of 17.74% in 2024 [12]. 2. Yellow Wine Industry Overview - The yellow wine industry has a rich cultural heritage but has faced challenges such as market concentration and declining enterprise numbers, with the number of large-scale yellow wine enterprises decreasing from 112 in 2016 to 81 in 2023 [18][39]. 3. Company Overview - The company is recognized as a leading player in the yellow wine industry, actively exploring reforms and optimizing its governance structure to enhance market flexibility [6][12]. 4. Growth Drivers - The company's growth is attributed to a well-structured product matrix focusing on high-end and youth-oriented offerings, deepening channel strategies, and effective brand communication [6][12]. - The company has successfully expanded its online sales, with a 90% increase in online revenue in 2024, and has strengthened its sales team to enhance market penetration [6][12]. 5. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 2.3 billion, 2.8 billion, and 3.3 billion yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 44, 36, and 31 [6][12].

Macro Strategy - The economic resilience in May is highlighted by a year-on-year industrial added value growth of 5.8% and a service production index growth of 6.2%, indicating a slight weakening in industrial supply and a slight strengthening in the service sector [1][18] - Retail sales increased by 6.4% year-on-year, surpassing the previous month's growth by 1.3 percentage points, while fixed asset investment showed a cumulative year-on-year growth of 3.7%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month [1][18] - The report identifies three distinct economic narratives: (1) sectors supported by policy, such as infrastructure and durable goods consumption, (2) new productive forces with strong endogenous momentum, and (3) real estate and non-subsidized consumption, which are relatively weaker [1][18] Industry Insights - The solid-state battery industry is accelerating its 0-1 industrialization, with significant policy support and application advancements, including the establishment of a standard system for solid-state batteries by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology [9][10] - Equipment manufacturers are expected to benefit from the ongoing optimization and iteration of solid-state battery production equipment, with companies like Xianlead Intelligent and Winbond Technology actively advancing their equipment layouts [10] - The report emphasizes the importance of self-research in baseband chips for major manufacturers, as it is crucial for brand influence and achieving competitive technological levels [12][13] Financial Products - The Guangfa CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Non-Bank ETF (513750.SH) is noted for its strong liquidity and active trading, with a net subscription of 4.74 million units in Q1 2025, reflecting increasing market interest [11] - The ETF has demonstrated excellent performance with a cumulative return of 22.1% and an annualized return of 49.2%, positioning it favorably among non-bank financial products [11] Recommendations - The report recommends companies in the oil service equipment and gas turbine sectors to benefit from high oil prices, highlighting firms like Jereh and Neway as key players [14] - In the real estate sector, it suggests focusing on companies like China Resources Land and Poly Developments, which are expected to stabilize and recover in the current market environment [14] - The report also identifies opportunities in the gas industry, particularly for companies with strong long-term contracts and cost advantages, such as New Hope Energy and China Gas [15]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the Guangfa CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Non-Bank ETF (513750.SH) [1] Core Insights - The Guangfa CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Non-Bank ETF focuses heavily on the insurance sector, with a weight of 70% in the index, providing a unique asset allocation opportunity in the market [6][14] - The valuation levels of the index are low, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 8.62 and a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.99, indicating a significant safety margin and potential for appreciation [6][32][35] - The index shows strong profitability with a dividend yield of 3.18%, reflecting robust earnings capacity and long-term investment value [6][45] - The insurance industry is experiencing high-quality development driven by favorable policies, with total premium income expected to grow from CNY 2.4 trillion in 2015 to CNY 5.7 trillion by 2024, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9.9% [53][54] - The report highlights the increasing concentration of leading securities firms, driven by regulatory pressures and mergers, enhancing their competitive edge [62][64] Summary by Sections 1. Investment Value Analysis of the Hong Kong Stock Connect Non-Bank Index - The index has a high concentration in the insurance sector, with a weight increase from 60.04% to 70.10% [14][22] - Valuation metrics indicate a favorable investment environment, with historical P/E and P/B ratios at the 21.50% and 45.00% percentiles, respectively [32][35] - The index's strong dividend yield and earnings per share (EPS) growth demonstrate its long-term investment potential [45][46] 2. Industry Fundamentals Analysis - The insurance sector is guided by policies aimed at high-quality development, focusing on risk prevention and product innovation [48][49] - The total premium income in the insurance industry is projected to grow significantly, with life insurance accounting for over 70% of the total [53][54] - Regulatory trends are encouraging mergers and acquisitions in the securities industry, leading to the emergence of "leading" securities firms [62][64] 3. Guangfa CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Non-Bank ETF Product Introduction - The ETF has shown strong liquidity, with an average daily trading volume of CNY 314 million, indicating high market interest [6][7] - The ETF's performance is notable, with a cumulative return of 22.1% and an annualized return of 49.2%, outperforming similar products [7][6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the specialized equipment industry, indicating a positive outlook for the next 6 months [1][7]. Core Insights - The solid-state battery industry is accelerating its industrialization, with equipment manufacturers expected to benefit first. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has invested 6 billion in solid-state battery research and development, and significant commercial progress is being made with companies like BMW and CATL conducting road tests and pilot projects [4]. - The transition from traditional liquid batteries to solid-state batteries involves significant changes in equipment, particularly in the front-end and mid-process stages. Key equipment includes dry electrode devices and isostatic presses, which are crucial for the manufacturing of solid-state batteries [4]. - The report highlights ongoing optimization and iteration of equipment as the industry moves from the 0-1 stage of industrialization. Companies such as XianDiao Intelligent and Winbond Technology are actively advancing their solid-state battery equipment offerings [4]. Summary by Sections Industry Trends - The solid-state battery sector is experiencing rapid advancements, with policy support and application testing leading to faster-than-expected commercialization [4]. - The manufacturing challenges primarily lie in the production processes, with a critical period for pilot lines expected between 2025 and 2026 [4]. Equipment Development - Equipment changes for solid-state batteries include the introduction of larger roller presses and the transition from liquid injection machines to immersion machines for electrolyte application [4]. - The report identifies several key players in the equipment supply chain, recommending companies like XianDiao Intelligent and Hangke Technology for their roles in solid-state battery manufacturing [4].