Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry [1]. Core Insights - The development of trispecific antibodies (TsAbs) is accelerating, with a focus on companies such as Zai Lab and Sanofi [18]. - The report highlights the performance of various sub-sectors within the industry, ranking them as follows: innovative drugs > CXO > traditional Chinese medicine > medical devices > pharmacies > pharmaceutical commerce [12][13]. - Specific stock selection strategies are recommended based on growth potential, valuation, dividend yield, and left-side investment opportunities [13]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The A-share pharmaceutical index has increased by 1.3% this week and 2.5% year-to-date, outperforming the CSI 300 by 0.2% and 3.6% respectively [11]. - The H-share biotechnology index has shown a 0.3% increase this week and a 27.8% increase year-to-date, outperforming the Hang Seng Technology Index by -1.7% and 9.6% respectively [11]. Trispecific Antibodies - TsAbs are engineered antibodies capable of binding to three different antigen targets, offering enhanced therapeutic potential in cancer immunotherapy [18]. - Currently, no TsAbs have been approved for market, but several companies, including Zai Lab and Sanofi, are actively developing these therapies [18][32]. Stock Recommendations - Growth-oriented stock picks focus on innovative drug companies such as Zai Lab, Sanofi, and others [13]. - For undervalued stocks, the report recommends traditional Chinese medicine companies like Zai Lab and Dong-E E-Jiao [13]. - High-dividend stocks are primarily found in the traditional Chinese medicine sector, with companies like Jiangzhong Pharmaceutical and Yunnan Baiyao highlighted [13]. Clinical Development - The report outlines the clinical stages of various trispecific antibody drugs, noting that the fastest progress is seen in Merck's Restoret, currently in phase 2b/3 trials [31]. - Domestic companies are also advancing in this area, with Zai Lab's ZG006 and others in clinical stages [32].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" investment rating for the electronic industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector in the next 6 to 12 months [1]. Core Insights - The global AI industry is increasingly focusing on the Middle East, which is expected to boost the demand for global computing chips and infrastructure. The recent lifting of the "AI diffusion rules" by the U.S. government has facilitated significant business agreements between U.S. AI companies and Middle Eastern nations, particularly Saudi Arabia and the UAE [1][2]. - Domestic demand for computing power is on the rise, driven by the ongoing tech competition between China and the U.S. The report emphasizes the need for a self-research approach in the entire computing hardware supply chain to overcome challenges posed by U.S. restrictions [3][8]. - Major Chinese internet companies like Tencent and Alibaba are showing optimistic growth in their AI-related businesses, with significant capital expenditures and revenue growth in AI products. Tencent's capital expenditure reached 27.5 billion yuan, a 91% year-on-year increase, while Alibaba's capital expenditure was 24.6 billion yuan, with a notable 18% year-on-year growth in cloud revenue [3][4]. Summary by Sections Global AI Industry Developments - The U.S. has announced a historic $600 billion investment agreement with Saudi Arabia, which includes a strategic partnership between Saudi AI company Humain and NVIDIA to build an AI factory powered by advanced GPUs [1]. - The UAE has also established a framework for an "AI Acceleration Partnership" with the U.S., which includes significant chip imports and the construction of a 5GW AI data center park [1]. Domestic Market Trends - The report highlights the rapid growth of domestic AI innovation, with companies like Tencent and Alibaba leading the charge. Tencent's AI capabilities have positively impacted its advertising and gaming sectors, while Alibaba's AI-related product revenue has seen triple-digit growth for seven consecutive quarters [3][4]. - The report notes that the demand for computing power is shifting from CPU-based to AI computing, indicating a strong upward trend in revenue growth for AI-related services in the coming quarters [3]. Industry Supply Chain and Challenges - The report identifies key players in the computing hardware supply chain, including companies involved in PCB manufacturing and domestic chip production. It emphasizes the importance of achieving a self-sufficient supply chain to mitigate risks associated with U.S. export restrictions [8][9].

Economic Indicators - As of May 18, 2025, the weekly ECI supply index is 50.24%, down 0.01 percentage points from last week, while the demand index is 49.91%, down 0.02 percentage points[6] - The monthly ECI supply index for the first three weeks of May is 50.25%, down 0.10 percentage points from April, and the demand index is 49.93%, up 0.01 percentage points[7] - The ECI investment index is 49.95%, down 0.04 percentage points from last week, and the consumption index is 49.74%, down 0.01 percentage points[6] Central Bank and Monetary Policy - As of April 30, 2025, the central bank's total balance sheet is 45.52 trillion yuan, a decrease of 108.48 billion yuan from March 2025[13] - The central bank's holdings of government bonds decreased by 1823.5 billion yuan in April, bringing the total to 25.18 trillion yuan[14] - In April, the central bank increased support for the capital market by 3700 billion yuan, indicating a proactive stance to stabilize the market[14] Market Trends - The average daily sales of passenger cars from May 1 to May 11 increased by 34% compared to the same period last month[7] - The container shipping price index for exports to the U.S. has shown significant improvement, with rates for the West and East coasts rising by 23.2% and 21.5% respectively as of May 16[7] - The construction sector is expected to accelerate in Q2 2025, with the asphalt working rate showing a notable recovery compared to last year[7] Risks and Outlook - There is a potential for a "rush to export" phenomenon in the short term, which could impact market stability[46] - The effectiveness of policy measures may fall short of market expectations, particularly in the real estate sector[46] - The sustainability of improvements in the real estate market remains to be observed[46]

证券研究报告·行业深度报告·商贸零售 商贸零售行业深度报告 烟草行业专题报告：新型烟草继续增长，巨 头加码无烟产品 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 ◼ 风险提示：监管政策不确定，新产品推广不及预期，市场竞争加剧等。 2025 年 05 月 18 日 证券分析师 吴劲草 执业证书：S0600520090006 wujc@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 石旖瑄 执业证书：S0600522040001 shiyx@dwzq.com.cn 研究助理 王琳婧 执业证书：S0600123070017 wanglj@dwzq.com.cn 行业走势 -19% -13% -7% -1% 5% 11% 17% 23% 29% 35% 2024/5/20 2024/9/17 2025/1/15 2025/5/15 商贸零售 沪深300 相关研究 《4 月我国出口额超预期，关注非美 出口核心标的小商品城》 2025-05-12 《关注五一旅游出行高峰，景区公司 天气全梳理》 2025-04-28 东吴证券研究所 1 / 18 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ 全球烟草：传统卷 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the non-bank financial industry [1] Core Views - The non-bank financial sector has shown resilience, with insurance and securities outperforming the CSI 300 index recently. The insurance sector rose by 3.63%, while the securities sector increased by 2.16% [8][9] - Significant reforms in mergers and acquisitions are being implemented by the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC), which is expected to enhance market vitality [3][17] - Insurance funds have significantly increased their allocation to stocks, while the proportion of non-standard investments has notably decreased [21][25] Summary by Sections Non-Bank Financial Subsector Performance - In the recent five trading days (May 12-16, 2025), the non-bank financial sector saw the insurance and securities industries outperform the CSI 300 index, with overall non-bank financial growth of 2.67% compared to 1.12% for the index [8][9] Non-Bank Financial Subsector Insights - **Securities**: Trading volume has significantly increased, with May's average daily trading volume reaching 1,478.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 57.38% [13][15] - **Insurance**: As of Q1 2025, the insurance industry's fund utilization balance was 34.93 trillion yuan, up 16.7% year-on-year. The allocation to stocks increased to 8.4% [21][24] - **Diversified Finance**: The trust industry is transitioning into a stable growth phase, while the futures market continues to see high transaction volumes, with April 2025's trading volume at 8.09 billion contracts [26][32] Industry Ranking and Key Company Recommendations - The report ranks the non-bank financial sector as follows: Insurance > Securities > Other Diversified Finance. Key companies recommended include New China Life Insurance, China Pacific Insurance, China Life Insurance, China Securities, Tonghuashun, and Jiufang Zhitu Holdings [40]

证券研究报告·宏观报告·宏观周报 海外周报 20250518 特朗普"漂亮法案"意外受挫，减税落地仍 需等待 2025 年 05 月 18 日 证券分析师 芦哲 执业证书：S0600524110003 luzhe@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 张佳炜 执业证书：S0600524120013 zhangjw@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 韦祎 执业证书：S0600525040002 weiy@dwzq.com.cn 《关税超预期下调，股债市场怎么 走？》 2025-05-12 东吴证券研究所 1 / 9 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 [Table_Tag] 研究助理 王茁 执业证书：S0600124120013 wangzhuo@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 《看淡"贷款淡季"、观察宽松效果— —2025 年 4 月金融数据点评》 2025-05-15 [Table_Summary] ◼ 核心观点：超预期的中美关税谈判结果令市场信心大增，本周美债利率 大幅走高，10 年期美债利率抬升至 4.477%，美股全线大涨，黄金大跌 3.65%。本周公布 4 月美国 CPI 超预期回落，但市场对关税反 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - This week, the yields of 1 - year and 10 - year Treasury bonds in China increased. The market responded to the results of the tariff negotiations in the first half of the week. It is expected that the reasonable DR007 range for the central bank is 1.4% - 1.5%, and the short - term observation point for the 10Y Treasury bond yield is 1.7% [1][2] - The long - end of the US Treasury yield touched the upper limit of the box - type shock and then pulled back. The Fed may only cut interest rates 1 - 2 times in 2025, which will support the US dollar, suppress gold, and flatten the yield curve. The US Treasury yield curve shows a "✓" shape, and the tariff policy and interest rate policy affect each other [3] - The US April CPI and PPI showed a moderate decline in inflation, but core service prices were still sticky. The PPI decline exceeded expectations, and there were both downward inflation pressure and economic stagflation risks in the short term. The Fed may maintain a wait - and - see attitude [5] - The US May Michigan Consumer Index continued to decline, and the confidence index hit a ten - year low. The unemployment benefit data showed that the labor market was still resilient in the short term, but there were potential risks in the future employment market [6] - The internal differences of the Fed have intensified, and the probability of an interest rate cut in June has decreased compared with last week. The market has fluctuated sharply due to concerns about "stagflation - like" situations [7][8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 One - Week Views Q1: How to view the subsequent long - and short - term factors and layout points for bonds? - This week (2025.5.12 - 2025.5.16), the yield of the 1 - year Treasury bond active bond rose from 1.416% to 1.445%, and the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond rose from 1.625% to 1.679% [1] - The market's reaction to the tariff negotiation results was basically completed in the first half of the week. It is expected that the reasonable DR007 range for the central bank is 1.4% - 1.5%, and the short - term observation point for the 10Y Treasury bond yield is 1.7% [2] Q2: How will the yield of US Treasury bonds change after the release of a series of US data? - This week (0512 - 0516), the long - end of the US Treasury yield touched the upper limit of the box - type shock (about 4.5%) and then pulled back. The Fed may only cut interest rates 1 - 2 times in 2025, which will support the US dollar, suppress gold, and flatten the yield curve [3] - The US April CPI and PPI showed a moderate decline in inflation, but core service prices were still sticky. The PPI decline exceeded expectations, and there were both downward inflation pressure and economic stagflation risks in the short term. The Fed may maintain a wait - and - see attitude [5] - The US May Michigan Consumer Index continued to decline, and the confidence index hit a ten - year low. The unemployment benefit data showed that the labor market was still resilient in the short term, but there were potential risks in the future employment market [6] - The internal differences of the Fed have intensified, and the probability of an interest rate cut in June has decreased compared with last week. The market has fluctuated sharply due to concerns about "stagflation - like" situations [7][8] 3.2 Domestic and Foreign Data Aggregation 3.2.1 Liquidity Tracking - From 2025/05/12 to 2025/05/16, the central bank conducted open - market operations, with a net withdrawal of 4751 billion yuan [39] - The money market interest rates and the yields of various bonds showed certain changes this week [41][112] 3.2.2 Domestic and Foreign Macroeconomic Data Tracking - The total commercial housing transaction area increased, and steel prices and LME non - ferrous metal futures official prices rose [60][62] - The prices of coking coal, thermal coal, and crude oil, as well as the vegetable price index and other data showed certain trends [67][70][72] 3.3 One - Week Review of Local Bonds 3.3.1 Primary Market Issuance Overview - This week, 51 local bonds were issued in the primary market, with an issuance amount of 197.25 billion yuan, a repayment amount of 26.136 billion yuan, and a net financing amount of 171.114 billion yuan. The main investment direction was comprehensive [75] - Eight provinces and cities issued local bonds, with Anhui, Guangxi, and Shandong ranking in the top three in terms of issuance volume [77] - No local special refinancing special bonds for replacing hidden debts were issued this week. Since January 1, 2025, a total of 1598.944 billion yuan of such bonds have been issued [78] 3.3.2 Secondary Market Overview - This week, the local bond stock was 50.75 trillion yuan, the trading volume was 430.667 billion yuan, and the turnover rate was 0.85%. The top three provinces with active local bond trading were Shandong, Jiangsu, and Sichuan, and the top three active trading terms were 30Y, 10Y, and 20Y [91] 3.3.3 This Month's Local Bond Issuance Plan - The local bond issuance plan shows the expected issuance amount and maturity yield changes for different terms [96] 3.4 One - Week Review of the Credit Bond Market 3.4.1 Primary Market Issuance Overview - This week, 125 credit bonds were issued in the primary market, with a total issuance amount of 120.549 billion yuan, a total repayment amount of 138.033 billion yuan, and a net financing amount of - 17.484 billion yuan, a decrease of 22.311 billion yuan compared with last week [95] - Specifically, the net financing amount of urban investment bonds was - 25.018 billion yuan, and the net financing amount of industrial bonds was 7.534 billion yuan. By bond type, the net financing amounts of short - term financing bonds, medium - term notes, enterprise bonds, corporate bonds, and private placement notes were - 40.655 billion yuan, 15.903 billion yuan, - 3.51 billion yuan, 15.262 billion yuan, and - 4.484 billion yuan respectively [101][103] 3.4.2 Issuance Interest Rates - The actual issuance interest rates of various bond types this week showed different changes, with short - term financing bonds, medium - term notes, and corporate bonds decreasing, and enterprise bonds increasing [106] 3.4.3 Secondary Market Transaction Overview - This week, the total credit bond trading volume was 598.559 billion yuan, with different trading volumes for different bond types and ratings [110] 3.4.4 Maturity Yields - The maturity yields of national development bonds increased across the board this week, while the yields of short - term financing notes and medium - term notes generally decreased, the yields of enterprise bonds generally increased, and the yields of urban investment bonds generally decreased [112][113][114] 3.4.5 Credit Spreads - This week, the credit spreads of short - term financing notes, medium - term notes, enterprise bonds, and urban investment bonds all narrowed [116][119][121] 3.4.6 Grade Spreads - This week, the grade spreads of short - term financing notes and medium - term notes and enterprise bonds generally narrowed, while the grade spreads of urban investment bonds generally widened [126][130][133] 3.4.7 Trading Activity - This week, the top five most actively traded bonds for each bond type are listed, and the industrial sector had the largest weekly trading volume of bonds, followed by public utilities, finance, materials, and daily consumption [139] 3.4.8 Subject Rating Changes - The subject rating of AVIC Industry Finance Holdings Co., Ltd. was downgraded, and the subject rating of Suzhou Shishan Business Innovation Development Group Co., Ltd. was upgraded [143]

Market Performance - As of May 17, 2025, the North Exchange A-share index closed at 1422.43 points, up 3.13% from the previous week[3] - The average market capitalization of North Exchange A-share component stocks is 3.071 billion yuan[15] - The average daily trading volume for North Exchange A-shares reached 34.684 billion yuan, an increase of 39.32% week-on-week[15] Sector Analysis - The North Exchange A-share PE ratio is 74.35x, compared to 59.95x for the ChiNext and 184.44x for the Sci-Tech Innovation Board as of May 16, 2025[28] - Recommended sectors include cross-border finance, technology innovation, and high-dividend consumer leaders, driven by policy incentives and industry trends[3] Investment Recommendations - Focus on undervalued growth stocks while being cautious of overvalued companies in specific sectors[28] - The report suggests a multi-dimensional investment strategy based on policy empowerment, technological breakthroughs, and consumer resilience[3] Risks - Potential risks include policy risk, liquidity risk, and the risk of corporate earnings not meeting expectations[29]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Geely Automobile [1] Core Views - Geely Automobile's Q1 2025 performance met expectations, with revenue of 72.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.5%, and a net profit of 5.67 billion yuan, up 263.4% year-on-year [7] - The company has announced plans to acquire all issued shares of Zeekr, further implementing the "Taizhou Declaration" to focus on its core automotive business and enhance resource utilization efficiency [7] - The report forecasts Geely's net profit for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 14.2 billion, 19.6 billion, and 27.1 billion yuan respectively, corresponding to P/E ratios of 11, 8, and 6 times [7] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue projections for Geely are as follows: 179.846 billion yuan for 2023, 240.194 billion yuan for 2024, 302.055 billion yuan for 2025, 382.115 billion yuan for 2026, and 455.664 billion yuan for 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 21.06%, 33.56%, 25.75%, 26.51%, and 19.25% respectively [1] - The projected net profit for 2023 is 5.308 billion yuan, increasing to 16.632 billion yuan in 2024, then decreasing to 14.208 billion yuan in 2025, before rising to 19.579 billion yuan in 2026 and 27.100 billion yuan in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 0.91%, 213.32%, -14.57%, 37.80%, and 38.42% respectively [1] - The latest diluted EPS is projected to be 0.53 yuan for 2023, 1.65 yuan for 2024, 1.41 yuan for 2025, 1.94 yuan for 2026, and 2.69 yuan for 2027 [1] Market Data Summary - The closing price of Geely Automobile is 19.74 HKD, with a market capitalization of approximately 183.32 billion HKD [5] - The company has a price-to-book ratio of 2.09 and a debt-to-asset ratio of 65.83% [6]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a shift in the public fund industry from "scale" to "return" focus, suggesting a positive outlook for the industry in the medium to long term [1][11]. Core Insights - The recent regulatory changes are expected to lead to a reallocation of public fund investments towards underweighted sectors, particularly in the financial and consumer goods industries, which may enhance overall market performance [4][44]. - The report highlights that the public fund industry is likely to evolve towards a model that closely tracks benchmark indices, with a significant portion of assets allocated to large-cap stocks [3][17]. - The anticipated increase in passive investment strategies is expected to drive up the valuation of benchmark indices like the CSI 300, with a projected increase of 6.8% [4][43]. Summary by Sections Short-term Market Dynamics - Market volatility is attributed to speculative trading based on expectations of increased public fund allocations, particularly in the financial sector [2][16]. - The report notes that the adjustment of fund portfolios will likely be gradual rather than abrupt, as detailed guidelines on performance benchmarks are still pending [2][16]. Medium to Long-term Changes in Fund Behavior - From a product perspective, actively managed equity funds are expected to transition towards a "quasi-index" model, with 60%-80% of assets closely tracking benchmark indices [3][17]. - Larger funds are more inclined to adopt conservative strategies that align closely with benchmarks to ensure stable returns, reflecting the need to meet investor expectations [3][25]. Impact of Regulatory Changes on Market Ecology - The report draws parallels between the current public fund adjustments and the influx of foreign capital in 2016-2017, noting a similar "signaling effect" but emphasizing the current lack of strong fundamental support for the affected sectors [4][26]. - The anticipated shift towards benchmark alignment is expected to elevate the valuation premiums of major indices, particularly the CSI 300 and the CSI 800, as more funds adopt passive investment strategies [4][32]. - Specific sectors such as financial services and consumer goods are identified as likely beneficiaries of increased public fund allocations due to their current underweight positions in fund portfolios [5][44].