证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·煤炭开采 煤炭开采行业跟踪周报 供需疲弱，港口库存仍处高位，煤价震荡运 行 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 行业近况 本周（5 月 12 日至 5 月 16 日）港口动力煤现货价环比下跌，报收 614 元/吨。 供给端，本周环渤海四港区日均调入量175.69万吨，环比上周减少28.54 万吨，降幅 1.10%。矿山产地煤矿正常供应，港口供给略有下降。 需求端，本周环渤海四港区日均调出量 181.79 万吨，环比上周增加 7.39 万吨，增幅 4.23%；日均锚地船舶共 46 艘，环比上周增加 3 艘，增幅 7.59%。库存端，环渤海四港区库存端 3292.41 万吨，环比上周增加 89.13 万吨，增幅 2.78%。港口本周日均调出量环比略有增加，受部分电厂补 库需求影响。库存端略有增加，同比仍处高位，叠加下游需求淡季影响， 煤价震荡运行。 我们分析认为：煤炭价格目前主要受库存高位影响、需求刚需为主以及 汛期水电稳增影响导致上涨动能有限，但伴随五一节后将逐步进入迎 峰度夏旺季期，煤价或有进一步上行可能。 估值与建议： 仍旧关注保险资金增量；保费 ...

证券研究报告 原油周报：关税政策缓和，国际油价上涨 能源化工首席证券分析师：陈淑娴，CFA 执业证书编号：S0600523020004 联系方式：chensx@dwzq.com.cn 能源化工研究助理：周少玟 执业证书编号：S0600123070007 联系方式：zhoushm@dwzq.com.cn 2025年5月18日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 投资要点 ◼ 【美国原油】 2 4 1. 原油周度数据简报 2. 本周石油石化板块行情回顾 3. 原油板块数据追踪 4. 成品油板块数据追踪 5. 油服板块数据追踪 6. 风险提示 目录 ◼ 1）原油价格：本周Brent/WTI原油期货周均价分别65.5/62.6美元/桶，较上周分别+3.5/+3.5美元/桶。 ◼ 2）原油库存：美国原油总库存、商业原油库存、战略原油库存、库欣原油库存分别8.4/4.4/4.0/0.2亿桶，环比+398/+ 345/+53/-107万桶。 ◼ 3）原油产量：美国原油产量为1339万桶/天，环比+2万桶/天。美国活跃原油钻机本周473台，环比-1台。美国活跃压 裂车队本周193部，环比-2部。 ◼ 4）原油需求：美国炼厂原油 ...

Market Overview - The total trading volume of the A-share market was 1.27 trillion, a decrease of approximately 87 billion compared to the previous trading week[8] - The A-share market showed a barbell structure, with the North Securities 50 index rising by 3.13% and the ChiNext index increasing by 1.38%[11] Market Style Performance - Small-cap stocks showed relative strength, with their performance oscillating near zero in the rolling 30-day relative return[14] - Growth stocks demonstrated a rebound in relative performance against value stocks, also within a negative range[17] Participant Performance - The market sentiment index rose by 4.65%, indicating strong performance from active funds, while the private equity heavy index increased by 1.10%[21] Emotional Market Indicators - The number of stocks hitting the daily limit rose to between 70 and 90 during the trading week, with a total of 4,109 stocks increasing on May 12[31] Industry Trends - Strong sectors included shipping and aviation, driven by unexpected outcomes from Sino-U.S. negotiations, and new consumption trends related to the upcoming 618 shopping festival[44] Regulatory Changes - The revised "Major Asset Restructuring Management Measures" implemented on May 16 introduced a phased payment mechanism for share issuance, extending the registration decision validity to 48 months[51] - The new rules also established a simplified review process for certain restructuring transactions, allowing for quicker registration decisions within five working days[51]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the machinery equipment industry, particularly focusing on the export-oriented segments such as engineering machinery, aerial work platforms, and oil service equipment [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights the positive impact of the recent US-China trade agreement, which significantly reduces tariffs on Chinese exports to the US, providing a favorable environment for machinery exporters [1][15]. - It emphasizes the strong growth potential in the engineering machinery sector, with a notable increase in excavator exports and a focus on digitalization and innovation in product offerings [2]. - The report identifies key investment opportunities in the humanoid robotics sector, particularly in dexterous hands and lightweight materials, which are expected to drive future growth [4][25]. Summary by Sections Recommended Stocks - The report lists a comprehensive portfolio of recommended stocks across various sectors, including Northern Huachuang, Sany Heavy Industry, and others in the machinery and automation fields [1][13]. Industry Trends - The engineering machinery sector is witnessing a recovery, with significant contracts signed at the Changsha International Engineering Machinery Exhibition, indicating robust demand [2]. - The general automation sector is expected to see a gradual recovery, with specific focus on industrial automation and injection molding machines, which are projected to grow in revenue [3][22]. Humanoid Robotics - The humanoid robotics industry is entering a golden development period, with a focus on dexterous hands and lightweight materials, suggesting a shift towards more advanced robotic applications [4][25]. - Investment opportunities are highlighted in companies specializing in dexterous hands and lightweight materials, indicating a growing market for these technologies [26][39]. General Automation - The report notes that the general automation sector is stabilizing, with a focus on opportunities in industrial automation and injection molding machines, which are expected to benefit from increased capital expenditures [3][22]. Market Dynamics - The report discusses the competitive landscape in the machinery equipment sector, noting the challenges posed by price competition and the need for innovation to maintain profitability [3][24]. - It also highlights the importance of export markets for domestic manufacturers, particularly in light of recent tariff reductions [1][15].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Geely Automobile is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The Q1 performance of Geely Automobile met expectations, with a revenue of 72.5 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 24.5%, and a net profit of 5.67 billion yuan, up 263.4% year-on-year [7] - The company has announced plans to acquire all issued shares of Zeekr, further implementing the "Taizhou Declaration" to focus on the automotive main business and enhance resource utilization efficiency [7] - The overall single-vehicle profitability improved significantly due to scale effects and cost reduction strategies under the "One Geely" initiative [7] Financial Summary - Total revenue forecast for 2023A is 179.846 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 21.06% [1] - The net profit forecast for 2023A is 5.308 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 0.91% [1] - The latest diluted EPS for 2023A is 0.53 yuan per share, with a P/E ratio of 29.71 [1] - The projected net profit for 2025E is 14.208 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 14.57% [1] - The projected P/E ratios for 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E are 11.10, 8.05, and 5.82 respectively [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the sector [1] Core Viewpoints - The market is expected to experience a period of volatility, with a focus on relative opportunities in the pharmaceutical and dividend sectors [19][21] - The model predicts a potential shift to a downward trend for the Wande All A Index, indicating a possible adjustment phase in May [19][26] - The pharmaceutical sector is highlighted for its relative stability and potential for returns, while the dividend sector is also expected to perform well after a short-term adjustment [19][21] Summary by Sections A-share Market Overview (May 12-16, 2025) - The top three broad indices were: North Certificate 50 (3.13%), Wande Micro-Pan Daily Equal Weight Index (1.58%), and ChiNext Index (1.38%) [10] - The bottom three indices were: Sci-Tech Innovation 100 (-1.29%), Sci-Tech Innovation 50 (-1.10%), and Sci-Tech Comprehensive Index (-1.00%) [10] A-share Market Outlook (May 19-23, 2025) - The Wande All A Index's daily model shifted from a positive to a negative signal on May 15, suggesting a potential adjustment phase [19][26] - The monthly model for May scored -2.5, indicating a slight adjustment in the A-share market [19][26] - The report anticipates a "V-shaped" market movement, with ongoing pressure on trading volumes [19] Fund Allocation Recommendations - The report suggests a defensive ETF allocation strategy, focusing on the pharmaceutical and dividend sectors for relative returns [19][21]

Group 1 - The report highlights that the recent regulatory changes by the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) aim to shift the focus of public funds from "scale" to "returns," indicating a potential restructuring of the capital market ecosystem in the medium to long term [1][11] - Short-term market dynamics are driven by speculative trading based on expectations of increased allocations to public funds, particularly in the financial sector, which has shown significant volatility [2][16] - The report suggests that the active equity funds are likely to evolve into "quasi-index" products, with a significant portion of their portfolios closely tracking benchmark indices while seeking alpha through selective stock picking [3][17] Group 2 - The report indicates that the new regulations will likely lead to a systematic increase in the valuation premium of benchmark indices, such as the CSI 300 and CSI 800, as public funds align their strategies with these indices [4][32] - It is noted that certain sectors, particularly financials and consumer staples, are currently underweighted in public fund portfolios, suggesting that these sectors may see increased allocations in the coming years [5][44] - The report draws parallels between the current public fund adjustments and the influx of foreign capital in 2016-2017, emphasizing that while both scenarios involve a "signaling effect," the current adjustments are primarily driven by liquidity rather than strong fundamental support [4][26]

证券研究报告 基础化工周报：尿素价格回升 能源化工首席证券分析师：陈淑娴，CFA 执业证书编号：S0600523020004 联系方式：chensx@dwzq.com.cn 能源化工研究助理：周少玟 执业证书编号：S0600123070007 联系方式：zhoushm@dwzq.com.cn 2025年05月18日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 投资要点 2 ◼ 【聚氨酯板块】本周纯MDI/聚合MDI/TDI行业均价为17620/16300/11718元/吨，环比分别+345/+1150/+693元/ 吨，纯MDI/聚合MDI/TDI行业毛利分别为4280/3880/458元/吨，环比分别+98/+855/+607元/吨。 ◼ 【油煤气烯烃板块】①本周乙烷/丙烷/动力煤/石脑油均价分别为1374/4514/531/4145元/吨，环比分别+17/-91/- 9/+130元/吨。②本周聚乙烯均价为7897元/吨，环比+28元/吨，乙烷裂解/CTO/石脑油裂解制聚乙烯理论利润分别 为1157/1897/114元/吨，环比分别+15/+42/-90元/吨。③本周聚丙烯均价为7200元/吨，环比+0元/吨， PD ...

证券研究报告·固定收益·固收点评 固收点评 20250517 绿色债券周度数据跟踪 （20250512-20250516） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 观点 ◼ 一级市场发行情况： 本周（20250512-20250516）银行间市场及交易所市场共新发行绿色债券 10 只，合计发行规模约 103.13 亿元，较上周增加 24.72 亿元。发行年限 多为 3 年；发行人性质为地方国有企业、央企子公司；主体评级多为 AAA、AA+、A-级；发行人地域为北京市、江苏省、四川省、广东省、 上海市、天津市；发行债券种类为中期票据、私募公司债、交易商协会 ABN、一般公司债。 ◼ 二级市场成交情况： 本周（20250512-20250516）绿色债券周成交额合计 530 亿元，较上周增 加 76 亿元。分债券种类来看，成交量前三为非金公司信用债、金融机 构债和利率债，分别为 250 亿元、211 亿元和 57 亿元；分发行期限来 看，3Y 以下绿色债券成交量最高，占比约 86.11%，市场热度持续；分 发行主体行业来看，成交量前三的行业为金融、公用事业、交运设备， 分别为 248 亿元、100 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, Huqin Technology (603296), marking its first coverage [1]. Core Views - Huqin Technology is positioned as a leading smart hardware platform, benefiting from dual growth in AI-driven data centers and consumer electronics [1]. - The company has shown significant revenue growth, with a five-year CAGR of 25.49% from 2019 to 2024, and a net profit CAGR of 42.1% during the same period [1][31]. - High-performance computing is identified as the main growth driver, with emerging businesses like automotive electronics and AIoT also contributing to rapid growth [1][31]. - The company is expected to maintain a strong market position in the ODM sector, particularly in smartphones and PCs, while also expanding its data center business [1][31]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - Huqin Technology, established in 2005, has evolved from an IDH model to a global smart hardware platform, offering a diverse range of products including smartphones, tablets, laptops, AIoT, and automotive electronics [11][18]. - The company has achieved a significant market presence, ranking 20th in the electronic information sector and 231st in the China 500 [11]. 2. Financial Performance - The projected total revenue for 2023 is 85.34 billion yuan, with a forecasted increase to 109.88 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 28.76% [1]. - The net profit for 2023 is estimated at 2.71 billion yuan, with an expected rise to 2.93 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting an 8.10% increase [1]. - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is projected to grow from 2.66 yuan in 2023 to 2.88 yuan in 2024 [1]. 3. Market Position and Growth Drivers - The high-performance computing segment is projected to account for 57.5% of revenue in 2024, with a growth rate of 29% [31]. - The smartphone ODM market share for Huqin is expected to remain strong, with a 27.9% global share in 2023, maintaining its position as a market leader [47]. - The data center business is anticipated to grow significantly, driven by increasing demand for AI servers, with projections indicating a market growth from $11.29 billion in 2024 to $25.27 billion by 2028 [64][67]. 4. Strategic Initiatives - The company has implemented a global manufacturing strategy, establishing production bases in North America, Southeast Asia, and South Asia to mitigate geopolitical risks [38][39]. - Huqin's acquisition of Yiluda is expected to enhance its entry into the North American wearable device supply chain [1][38]. - The company emphasizes R&D, with a projected R&D expenditure of 5.2 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a 13.38% increase year-on-year [33].