Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for future performance [5]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a significant increase in net profit attributable to shareholders for the first half of 2025, with a projected growth of 60%-80%, amounting to between 6.722 billion and 7.562 billion yuan [2]. - The anticipated growth in net profit is primarily attributed to the concentrated release of high-level maintenance orders for train sets and the delayed delivery of train procurement orders from the end of 2024 [2]. - The recovery of fixed asset investment in railways is expected to drive demand for train sets, with a stable annual planning mileage for high-speed railways in China around 2,500 km [3]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts total revenue of 273.163 billion yuan for 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10.84% [5]. - The projected net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 is 13.808 billion yuan, representing an increase of 11.47% compared to the previous year [5]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to reach 0.48 yuan in 2025, with a dynamic price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 14.99 times [5]. Market Dynamics - In 2024, the National Railway Group publicly tendered for 245 sets of 350 km/h train sets, marking a 49% increase year-on-year [4]. - The demand for high-level maintenance of train sets is also expected to rise, with significant new orders signed in 2024 [4]. - The report highlights that the company, as the only domestic manufacturer of complete train sets, is well-positioned to benefit from the recovery in railway fixed asset investment [5].

证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·电力设备 电力设备行业跟踪周报 人形开始百台订单、光伏加强反内卷 2025 年 07 月 13 日 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 证券分析师 曾朵红 执业证书：S0600516080001 021-60199793 zengdh@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 阮巧燕 执业证书：S0600517120002 021-60199793 ruanqy@dwzq.com.cn 研究助理 许钧赫 执业证书：S0600123070121 xujunhe@dwzq.com.cn 行业走势 -9% -4% 1% 6% 11% 16% 21% 26% 31% 36% 2024-7-12 2024-11-10 2025-3-11 2025-7-10 电力设备 沪深300 相关研究 《人形机器人轻量化：产业化前夕的 进修课，应用为重》 2025-07-12 《风电行业 2025 年度中期策略报告： 25 年陆海风需求共振，看好两海成长 空间》 2025-07-10 东吴证券研究所 1 / 45 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ 电气设备 728 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company has released a performance forecast for the first half of 2025, indicating a year-on-year growth in net profit attributable to shareholders of 20% to 30%, exceeding market expectations [2] - The domestic market is benefiting from ongoing economic stabilization policies, product upgrades, and accelerated progress in new energy, leading to a recovery in the earth-moving machinery sector [2] - The company's international strategy focuses on comprehensive solutions and smart technology, resulting in steady growth in revenue and profit [2] - The forecast for the entire year suggests a revenue of 34.6 billion yuan and an increase of 1 percentage point in net profit margin, indicating strong performance certainty [2] Summary by Sections Performance Forecast - For the first half of 2025, the company expects a net profit of 1.18 to 1.28 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 20% to 30% [2] - The second quarter net profit is projected to be between 520 to 620 million yuan, with a median of 570 million yuan, reflecting an 18% year-on-year increase [2] Market Analysis - In June 2025, excavator sales reached 18,804 units, a year-on-year increase of 13%, with domestic sales recovering to a 6% growth [3] - The company is expected to benefit from strong demand in overseas markets, particularly in regions like Europe, Africa, and Indonesia, despite some declines in specific markets [3] Corporate Strategy - The completion of the mixed-ownership reform in 2022 has significantly enhanced the company's competitiveness and internal vitality through equity incentives and capacity expansion [4] - The company has repurchased shares and announced plans for further buybacks, reflecting confidence in long-term development [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector, specifically recommending stocks such as WuXi AppTec and AopuMai [1]. Core Insights - The CXO and research service sectors are experiencing a recovery in market sentiment, with significant performance improvements noted in companies like WuXi AppTec and BoTeng [1][4]. - The A-share pharmaceutical index has shown a year-to-date increase of 12%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 10% [4][9]. - The report highlights a notable performance in the CXO and research service sectors, driven by a significant uptick in orders and positive earnings forecasts for Q2 [15][22]. Summary by Sections Industry Trends - The report indicates a positive trend in the investment climate for innovative drugs, with a notable increase in the number of new drug development pipelines in China, surpassing global averages [15][16]. - The easing of U.S. monetary policy is expected to enhance the financing environment for pharmaceutical investments, contributing to a recovery in the sector [15][16]. Performance Metrics - The report details that WuXi AppTec's order backlog grew by 47.1% year-on-year, indicating strong demand and operational stability [21]. - Other companies like KaiLong and BoTeng also reported significant increases in their order volumes, with KaiLong's new orders growing by over 20% [21][22]. Stock Recommendations - The report ranks sub-sectors in the following order of preference: innovative drugs > research services > CXO > traditional Chinese medicine > medical devices > pharmacies [10]. - Specific stock recommendations include WuXi AppTec, AopuMai, and BaiPuSaiSi for their strong growth potential and market positioning [10][11].

Economic Indicators - The weekly ECI supply index is at 50.14%, up 0.04 percentage points from last week, while the demand index is at 49.92%, down 0.01 percentage points[6] - The monthly ECI supply index for the first two weeks of July is at 50.12%, down 0.04 percentage points from June, and the demand index is at 49.93%, unchanged from June[7] - The real estate sales area in 30 major cities has a year-on-year growth rate of -26.5%, worsening from June's -10.6%[7] Industrial Production - The operating rate for the automotive tire industry is 64.56% for full steel tires and 72.92% for semi-steel tires, with increases of 0.81 and 2.51 percentage points respectively[15] - The coastal power plants' load rate reached an average of 85.00%, up 2.29 percentage points from the previous week[14] Export and Trade - The export container freight index for Shanghai is at 1733.29 points, down 30.20 points from the previous week, indicating a decline in export momentum[31] - The total export amount for South Korea in early July shows a year-on-year growth of 9.50%, up 4.60 percentage points from June[30] Monetary Policy and Liquidity - The ELI index is at -0.97%, down 0.12 percentage points from last week, indicating a slight decrease in liquidity[10] - The net monetary withdrawal for the week is 2265 billion yuan, with 4257 billion yuan in reverse repos conducted[40] Risk Factors - Uncertainty remains regarding U.S. tariff policies, and the effectiveness of new policies may fall short of market expectations[47]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, when the bond market has no clear trading theme, bond yields may be affected by the stock market and tend to rise, but the increase is limited. The bond market is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range, and liquidity is favorable for the bond market. Yields rising to 1.7% present a configuration opportunity [1][15]. - For US Treasury yields, considering the tariff policy's potential impact on prices and the support of stable - coin reserves for short - term Treasury bonds, the outlook is complex. The Fed has different views on whether to cut interest rates, and the probability of interest rate cuts in different months has changed [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 One - Week Views - **Impact of the "Stock - Bond Seesaw" on the Bond Market**: From July 7 - 11, 2025, the yield of the 10 - year Treasury active bond rose from 1.641% to 1.666%. The stock market's performance significantly affected bond yields this week. Currently, it is more of a liquidity - driven stock bull market, and the bond market is expected to have narrow - range fluctuations [1][10][15]. - **Trend of US Treasury Yields**: From July 4 - 11, overseas markets generally continued the previous week's trend. US Treasury bonds fell while US stocks remained flat. The increase in short - term US Treasury yields was weaker than that of long - term ones. Considering various data and Fed officials' statements, the probability of Fed interest rate cuts in different months has changed [3]. 3.2 Domestic and Overseas Data Summary 3.2.1 Liquidity Tracking - **Open - Market Operations**: From July 7 - 11, 2025, the total net investment in open - market operations was - 2265 billion yuan [31]. - **Interest Rates**: Various money market interest rates such as R, DR, and SHIBOR changed slightly from July 4 to 11 [33]. 3.2.2 Domestic and Overseas Macroeconomic Data Tracking - **Real - Estate Market**: The total transaction area of commercial housing decreased [52]. - **Commodity Prices**: Steel prices rose across the board, while LME non - ferrous metal futures official prices showed mixed trends [54]. 3.3 One - Week Review of Local Bonds 3.3.1 Primary Market Issuance Overview - **Issuance Scale**: From July 7 - 11, 2025, 45 local bonds were issued, with a total issuance amount of 231.79 billion yuan, a repayment amount of 121.561 billion yuan, and a net financing amount of 110.229 billion yuan [84]. - **Regional Distribution**: 12 provinces and cities issued local bonds, with Guizhou, Hunan, and Heilongjiang ranking in the top three in terms of issuance amount [85]. 3.3.2 Secondary Market Overview - **Trading Volume**: The trading volume of local bonds this week was 37.0728 billion yuan, with a turnover rate of 0.71%. The top three provinces with the most active trading were Hunan, Guangdong, and Shandong [98]. - **Yield Changes**: The yields of local bonds showed a general downward trend [102]. 3.3.3 Local Bond Issuance Plan for the Month The issuance plans of local bonds in different provinces and cities from July 14 - 18 are provided [110]. 3.4 One - Week Review of the Credit Bond Market 3.4.1 Primary Market Issuance Overview - **Total Issuance**: This week, 333 credit bonds were issued, with a total issuance amount of 287.445 billion yuan, a total repayment amount of 199.101 billion yuan, and a net financing amount of 88.344 billion yuan, an increase of 10.205 billion yuan compared to last week [106]. - **By Bond Type**: The net financing amounts of short - term financing bills, medium - term notes, corporate bonds, corporate bonds, and private placement notes varied [112]. 3.4.2 Issuance Interest Rates The issuance interest rates of short - term financing bills, medium - term notes, corporate bonds, and corporate bonds changed to different extents [120]. 3.4.3 Secondary Market Transaction Overview The total trading volume of credit bonds this week was 588.518 billion yuan, with different trading volumes for different credit ratings and bond types [122]. 3.4.4 Yield to Maturity The yields to maturity of national development bonds, short - term financing bills, medium - term notes, corporate bonds, and urban investment bonds showed different trends of increase or decrease [123][125][126][127]. 3.4.5 Credit Spreads The credit spreads of short - term financing bills, medium - term notes, corporate bonds, and urban investment bonds generally narrowed [128][130][132][136]. 3.4.6 Rating Spreads The rating spreads of short - term financing bills, medium - term notes, and urban investment bonds generally narrowed, while those of corporate bonds showed a general widening trend [142][145][148]. 3.4.7 Trading Activity The top five most actively traded bonds for each bond type are listed, and the industrial sector had the largest weekly trading volume of bonds [151][152].

Market Overview - Trump's "Reciprocal Tariff 2.0" threat has been postponed to August 1, 2025, leading to a slight decline in U.S. stocks[1] - The inflation pressure from tariff threats has cooled market rate cut expectations, resulting in a rise in U.S. Treasury yields[1] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield increased by 6.75 basis points to 4.409% during the week from July 7 to July 11[1] Economic Indicators - The June FOMC meeting minutes released hawkish signals, with some dovish Fed officials showing caution towards rate cuts due to tariff impacts[1] - The NFIB small business optimism index for June recorded 98.6, unchanged from expectations and slightly down from the previous value of 98.8[1] - The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model predicts a Q2 2025 U.S. GDP growth of +2.6%[1] Tariff Implications - Trump signed an executive order to extend the tariff deadline to August 1, announcing new tariff rates for 25 countries and regions, including Japan (25%), South Korea (25%), and Brazil (50%)[1] - Market reactions to the tariff threats have been relatively muted, with participants adopting TACO trading strategies, betting on further delays or cancellations of the tariffs[1] - The new tariff rates are seen as a pressure tactic in trade negotiations, with the possibility of further extensions beyond August 1[1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the average weekly prices of Brent/WTI crude oil futures were $69.8/$67.9 per barrel, up $1.6/$1.6 from last week [2]. - The total US crude oil inventory, commercial crude oil inventory, strategic crude oil inventory, and Cushing crude oil inventory were 8.3/4.3/4.0/0.2 billion barrels respectively, with a week - on - week increase of 731/707/24/46 thousand barrels [2]. - US crude oil production was 13.39 million barrels per day, a week - on - week decrease of 50 thousand barrels per day. The number of active US crude oil rigs this week was 424, a week - on - week decrease of 1. The number of active US fracturing fleets this week was 176, a week - on - week increase of 4 [2]. - US refinery crude oil processing volume was 17.01 million barrels per day, a week - on - week decrease of 100 thousand barrels per day; the US refinery crude oil utilization rate was 94.7%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.2 percentage points [2]. - US crude oil imports, exports, and net imports were 6.01/2.76/3.26 million barrels per day, with a week - on - week change of - 910 thousand/+450 thousand/ - 1.36 million barrels per day [2]. - The average weekly prices of US gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel were $91/$102/$90 per barrel respectively, with a week - on - week change of +$2.9/+$2.1/ - $4.1. The price spreads with crude oil were $21/$32/$20 per barrel respectively, with a week - on - week change of +$1.2/+$0.4/ - $5.8 [2]. - US gasoline, diesel, and aviation kerosene inventories were 2.3/1.0/0.4 billion barrels respectively, with a week - on - week decrease of 266/83/91 thousand barrels [2]. - US gasoline, diesel, and aviation kerosene production were 9.9/5.09/1.96 million barrels per day respectively, with a week - on - week increase of 280 thousand/60 thousand/40 thousand barrels per day [2]. - US gasoline, diesel, and aviation kerosene consumption were 9.9/5.09/1.96 million barrels per day respectively, with a week - on - week increase of 280 thousand/60 thousand/40 thousand barrels per day [2]. - US gasoline imports, exports, and net exports were 130 thousand/1.04 million/910 thousand barrels per day respectively, with a week - on - week change of - 40 thousand/+260 thousand/+300 thousand barrels per day. US diesel imports, exports, and net exports were 40 thousand/1.59 million/1.54 million barrels per day respectively, with a week - on - week change of - 80 thousand/+230 thousand/+310 thousand barrels per day. US aviation kerosene imports, exports, and net exports were 80 thousand/250 thousand/170 thousand barrels per day respectively, with a week - on - week change of +10 thousand/+80 thousand/+70 thousand barrels per day [2]. - Recommended companies include CNOOC Limited (600938.SH/0883.HK), PetroChina Company Limited (601857.SH/0857.HK), Sinopec Corp. (600028.SH/0386.HK), CNOOC Oilfield Services Limited (601808.SH), Offshore Oil Engineering Co., Ltd. (600583.SH), and CNOOC Energy Technology & Services Limited (600968.SH). Companies to be noted include Sinopec Oilfield Service Corporation (600871.SH/1033.HK), China Petroleum Engineering & Construction Corporation (600339.SH), and Sinopec Mechanical & Electrical Equipment Co., Ltd. (000852.SZ) [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 1. Crude Oil Weekly Data Briefing - Data sources include Bloomberg, WIND, EIA, TSA, Baker Hughes, and Dongwu Securities Research Institute [8][9] 2. This Week's Petroleum and Petrochemical Sector Market Review 2.1 Petroleum and Petrochemical Sector Performance - Information on the performance of the petroleum and petrochemical sector, including the rise and fall of various sub - industries and the trend of the sector and the CSI 300 index, with data sources from WIND and Dongwu Securities Research Institute [11][18] 2.2 Sector Listed Company Performance - The table shows the rise and fall of major upstream companies in the sector, including companies such as CNOOC Limited, PetroChina Company Limited, and Sinopec Corp., with data sources from WIND and Dongwu Securities Research Institute [22][23] - The valuation table of listed companies shows the stock price, total market value, net profit attributable to the parent company, PE, and PB of companies such as CNOOC Limited, PetroChina Company Limited, and Sinopec Corp. from 2024A to 2027E, with data sources from Wind and Dongwu Securities Research Institute [24] 3. Crude Oil Sector Data Tracking 3.1 Crude Oil Price - Analyzes the prices and price spreads of Brent, WTI, Urals, ESPO crude oil, etc., as well as the relationship between the US dollar index, copper price, and WTI crude oil price, with data sources from WIND and Dongwu Securities Research Institute [26][29] 3.2 Crude Oil Inventory - Studies the relationship between US commercial crude oil inventory and oil prices, the weekly destocking speed of US commercial crude oil and the rise and fall of Brent oil, and the inventory of US total crude oil, commercial crude oil, strategic crude oil, and Cushing crude oil, with data sources from WIND and Dongwu Securities Research Institute [44][45] 3.3 Crude Oil Supply - Analyzes US crude oil production, the number of US crude oil rigs, and the number of fracturing fleets and their relationship with oil prices, with data sources from WIND and Dongwu Securities Research Institute [57][58] 3.4 Crude Oil Demand - Analyzes US refinery crude oil processing volume, refinery utilization rate, and Shandong refinery utilization rate, with data sources from WIND and Dongwu Securities Research Institute [61][63] 3.5 Crude Oil Import and Export - Analyzes US crude oil import, export, and net import volume, as well as the import, export, and net import volume of US crude oil and petroleum products, with data sources from WIND and Dongwu Securities Research Institute [66][68] 4. Refined Oil Sector Data Tracking 4.1 Refined Oil Price - Analyzes the prices and price spreads of crude oil and domestic/US/European/Singapore gasoline, diesel, and aviation kerosene, as well as the domestic gasoline and diesel wholesale - retail price spreads, with data sources from WIND and Dongwu Securities Research Institute [73][76] 4.2 Refined Oil Inventory - Analyzes the inventory of US gasoline, diesel, aviation kerosene, and Singapore gasoline and diesel, with data sources from WIND and Dongwu Securities Research Institute [99][100] 4.3 Refined Oil Supply - Analyzes US gasoline, diesel, and aviation kerosene production, with data sources from WIND and Dongwu Securities Research Institute [115][116] 4.4 Refined Oil Demand - Analyzes US gasoline, diesel, and aviation kerosene consumption and the number of US passenger airport security checks, with data sources from WIND and Dongwu Securities Research Institute [117][118] 4.5 Refined Oil Import and Export - Analyzes US gasoline, diesel, and aviation kerosene import, export, and net export volume, with data sources from WIND and Dongwu Securities Research Institute [126][127] 5. Oilfield Services Sector Data Tracking - Analyzes the average daily fees of self - elevating drilling platforms and semi - submersible drilling platforms in the industry, with data sources from WIND and Dongwu Securities Research Institute [139][141]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the automotive sector, emphasizing the potential for growth driven by innovation and market dynamics [5]. Core Insights - The automotive sector is expected to benefit from three main themes: dividends, AI intelligence, and robotics, with a recommendation to increase exposure to dividend-focused stocks in the second half of the year [5]. - The report highlights a significant drop in passenger car insurance registrations, with a week-on-week decrease of 30.2%, but a year-on-year increase of 12.1% [2][48]. - The report anticipates a total retail sales volume of 23.69 million units for 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 4.1% [49]. Summary by Sections Weekly Review - In the first week of July, the total number of compulsory insurance registrations for passenger cars was 398,000, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 30.2% and a month-on-month increase of 12.1% [2][48]. - The performance of various segments showed that automotive parts outperformed other categories, with a slight increase of 0.1% [2]. Industry Changes - Key developments include the scheduled launch of the Li Auto i8 on July 29 and the expected net profit of 2.7 to 3.2 billion yuan for Seres in the first half of 2025, with a significant quarter-on-quarter increase [3][5]. - The report notes the introduction of new models, such as the Leap Motor C11, and the upcoming annual meeting of the China Automotive Research Institute [3]. Market Performance - The automotive sector ranked 30th in A-shares and 11th in Hong Kong stocks for the week, with the automotive parts sector showing the best performance [9][16]. - The report indicates that the overall valuation of the automotive parts sector has increased, while other segments have seen declines [35]. Future Outlook - The report predicts that the demand for passenger vehicles will remain strong due to policies encouraging vehicle replacement and upgrades, estimating a contribution of 1 to 1.7 million additional units in sales [49]. - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles is projected to reach 60.6% by 2025, with significant growth expected in both domestic and export markets [50][57].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas markets in the week from July 7th to July 11th continued the previous week's trend, with U.S. Treasuries falling and U.S. stocks remaining flat. The short - end of U.S. Treasuries had a weaker upward movement than the long - end. Market concerns about the impact of Trump's tariff policy on prices and the use of short - term U.S. Treasuries as reserves for stablecoins support the short - end of U.S. Treasuries. The global "re - globalization" process brings challenges of regional supply - demand imbalance, making it difficult for global central banks to act in unison [1][40]. - In the domestic market, it is the interim report preview period. Buying based on performance is the trading theme, and policies aim to clear the blockages in the "internal cycle". Three dimensions are used to find opportunities in the second half of the year: valuation repair for mid - low - rated targets, performance repair for mid - low - price style targets, and promoting conversion of quasi - expiring targets. The intersection of these three dimensions may be the key area for incremental allocation, and it is recommended to increase the allocation of under - invested funds while maintaining a high - low style switch [1][41]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Week - on - Week Market Review 3.1.1. Equity Market - The equity market rose overall from July 7th to July 11th. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.09% to 3510.18 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.78% to 10696.10 points, the ChiNext Index rose 2.36% to 2207.10 points, and the CSI 300 rose 0.82% to 4014.81 points. The average daily trading volume of the two markets increased by about 608.87 billion yuan to 14761.69 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 4.30% [6][8]. - Among the 31 Shenwan primary industries, 25 industries rose, with 12 industries rising more than 2%. Steel, non - bank finance, building materials, computer, and environmental protection led the gains, while coal, banks, automobiles, and household appliances led the losses [13]. 3.1.2. Convertible Bond Market - The convertible bond market rose by 0.76% to 450.85 points from July 7th to July 11th. Among the 29 Shenwan primary industries, 28 industries rose, with 3 industries rising more than 2%. Coal, non - bank finance, social services, computer, and building materials led the gains, while banks led the losses [16]. - The average daily trading volume of the convertible bond market was 712.79 billion yuan, a significant increase of 32.55 billion yuan, a week - on - week change of 4.79%. The top ten convertible bonds in terms of trading volume had an average trading volume of 123.57 billion yuan, and the first - ranked had a trading volume of 373.80 billion yuan. About 73.17% of convertible bond issues rose [16]. - The overall market conversion premium rate continued to decline, with an average daily conversion premium rate of 44.32%, a decrease of 2.05 pcts compared to the previous week. Different price and parity intervals showed different trends in the conversion premium rate [22]. 3.1.3. Stock - Bond Market Sentiment Comparison - From July 7th to July 11th, the weekly weighted average and median of the convertible bond and underlying stock markets were positive, and the underlying stocks had a larger weekly increase. The trading volume of both the convertible bond and underlying stock markets increased significantly. About 73.45% of convertible bonds and 70.47% of underlying stocks rose, and about 36.90% of convertible bonds had a higher gain - loss ratio than underlying stocks. Overall, the trading sentiment in the underlying stock market was better [35]. 3.2. Future Outlook and Investment Strategy - Continue to pay attention to the three dimensions of mid - low - rated targets, mid - low - price style targets, and quasi - expiring targets to find opportunities in the second half of the year. Increase the allocation of under - invested funds and maintain a high - low style switch to balance offense and defense [1][41]. - The top ten high - rated, mid - low - price convertible bonds with the greatest potential for parity premium rate repair next week are Hexing Convertible Bond, Pufa Convertible Bond, Hailiang Convertible Bond, Haoke Convertible Bond, Xingsen Convertible Bond, Liqun Convertible Bond, Fenghuo Convertible Bond, Ying 19 Convertible Bond, Hope Convertible Bond, and Shouhua Convertible Bond [1][41]