2026 年 03 月 16 日 固定收益研究团队 滞胀环境未必导致股市债市皆有调整 ——固收专题 陈曦（分析师） 王帅中（联系人） chenxi2@kysec.cn wangshuaizhong@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790125070016 近期市场交易滞胀，市场表现为：股市债市皆有调整。按照传统理论，滞胀时期， 应该是：多商品+多现金，空股+空债，但是我们复盘历史上的滞胀时期，却发 现多数情况下是："股涨+债跌"。 历史上经典的滞胀情形 按照最通俗的理解，滞胀=经济增长下行+通胀上行，历史上经典的滞胀情形： （1）美国 1970-1980 年。这是目前市场主流对比的时期，这一时期，标普 500 上涨约 50%，10 年期美债收益率上行约 5%。部分市场观点复盘美国当时滞胀， 只强调 1973-1974 年的美股大跌，这种观点并不客观。当时油价上涨有三波：第 一波，1970-1972 年，布伦特原油价格涨幅约 50%，标准普尔 500 指数涨幅约 50%， 这一阶段也是美股"漂亮 50"泡沫形成期；第二波，1973-1974 年，布伦特原油价 格上涨 5 倍，美股"漂亮 50"泡沫破灭，美股大跌 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - OpenClaw, an open-source AI agent framework, has gained significant popularity since its release, becoming the most popular open-source project on GitHub as of February 2026. It offers capabilities such as local-first operation, autonomous tool invocation, cross-application execution, multi-IM access, and continuous online operation, making it highly appealing to users [4] - The demand for inference computing power is expected to grow exponentially due to the characteristics of Agent AI, which include autonomous task execution and multi-agent concurrency. The daily token consumption in China surged from 100 billion in early 2024 to over 30 trillion by mid-2025, reflecting a growth of over 300 times in just one and a half years [5] - OpenClaw is set to transform AI from a conversational role to an execution role, enabling more intelligent personal AI assistants and digital employees. Major companies like Xiaomi and Huawei are adapting OpenClaw for various devices, indicating a shift in the capabilities of edge AI [5] Summary by Sections OpenClaw Development - OpenClaw was initially released on November 24, 2025, and saw a surge in adoption in February 2026, with major domestic companies launching products based on its code. Notable implementations include Tencent's WorkBuddy and Zhizhu's AutoClaw, which offer seamless integration with existing communication tools [4] Token Consumption and Demand - The introduction of Agent AI has led to a shift in token consumption patterns, with tasks now consuming tens of thousands to millions of tokens per execution. Predictions indicate that by 2030, the global active AI agents will reach 2.216 billion, with annual token consumption skyrocketing from 0.0005 Peta Tokens in 2025 to 15.2 million Peta Tokens [5] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the AI inference computing power supply chain, including segments like chips, complete machines, liquid cooling, and power supplies. Recommended stocks include Haiguang Information, Lingyi Technology, and Dongshan Precision, among others [6]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - OpenClaw, an open-source AI agent framework, has gained significant popularity since its release, becoming the most popular open-source project on GitHub as of February 2026. It offers capabilities such as local-first operation, autonomous tool invocation, cross-application execution, and continuous online operation, making it highly appealing to users [4] - The demand for inference computing power is expected to grow exponentially due to the characteristics of Agent AI, which include autonomous task execution and multi-agent concurrency. The daily token consumption in China surged from 100 billion in early 2024 to over 30 trillion by June 2025, reflecting a growth of over 300 times in just one and a half years [5] - OpenClaw is penetrating various devices, including PCs, smartphones, and wearables, transforming the role of AI from a conversational agent to an executor. This shift is expected to create new application scenarios and product categories in the end-side AI market [6] Summary by Sections OpenClaw Development - OpenClaw has seen rapid adoption among major domestic companies, with multiple products and solutions being released based on its code. Notable companies include Tencent, Huawei, Alibaba, and Xiaomi, which are integrating OpenClaw into their cloud services and applications [4] Token Consumption and Inference Demand - The workflow of "plan-execute-feedback-replan" in Agent AI has led to a shift from linear to exponential growth in token consumption. A single task can consume tens of thousands to millions of tokens, indicating a significant increase in demand for inference capabilities [5] End-Side AI Transformation - The modular architecture of OpenClaw allows for comprehensive session management and memory systems, enabling it to autonomously manage various software applications. This evolution is expected to redefine the capabilities of end-side AI and lead to the development of more intelligent personal AI assistants [6] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the AI inference computing power supply chain, including segments like chips, complete machines, liquid cooling, and power supplies. Recommended stocks include Haiguang Information, Lingyi Technology, and Dongshan Precision, among others [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that the power equipment industry is transitioning from "high growth" to "accelerated growth," indicating strong sustainability and certainty in its performance [2][12][27] - The report highlights that the current investment strategy should focus on "marginal changes in growth," emphasizing both G (growth) and Δg (change in growth rate) [2][12][26] - The power equipment sector is expected to experience a high prosperity cycle comparable to the coal industry in 2022, driven by a reversal in performance anticipated in 2025 [3][14] Group 2 - Energy security is projected to bring further valuation premiums to the power equipment sector, as the geopolitical landscape emphasizes the need for energy independence [4][5] - The report outlines three macro trends driving demand for power equipment: reshaping of supply-side dynamics, enhancement of energy system resilience, and the reconfiguration of national strategic reserves [4][5] - The power equipment industry is positioned to benefit from the transition towards domestic energy sources, particularly in wind, solar, and nuclear energy [4][5] Group 3 - Investment recommendations suggest prioritizing segments within the power equipment industry that align with both energy security and growth metrics [5][9] - Key focus areas include battery storage, grid equipment, synergistic computing and electricity solutions, and domestic energy sources [5][9] - The battery storage sector is identified as a core component of national strategic reserves, transitioning from commercial exploration to a strategic material [5][9]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The restaurant recovery is significant, with inflation presenting opportunities, and the condiment sector is expected to continue benefiting [4][12] - The food and beverage index increased by 0.3% from March 9 to March 13, outperforming the CSI 300 by approximately 0.1 percentage points, with meat products (+2.3%), beer (+1.2%), and dairy products (+1.0%) leading the sub-industry performance [11][13] - Rising geopolitical factors are driving global energy prices up, which may lead to cost transmission in the supply chain and create inflation expectations. Segments within the food and beverage industry that can pass on costs will benefit [11][12] Summary by Sections Weekly Insights - The restaurant recovery is evident, and inflation is creating opportunities, particularly for the condiment sector, which is closely tied to restaurant demand [11][12] - The food and beverage index's performance indicates a positive trend, with specific sub-sectors like meat products and beer showing strong growth [11][13] Market Performance - The food and beverage index rose by 0.3%, ranking 9th among 28 sectors, and outperformed the CSI 300 by about 0.1 percentage points [11][13] - Leading individual stocks include Jinzi Ham, Aipu Co., and Laiyifen, while ST Chuntian, New Dairy, and Ximai Foods experienced declines [13][15] Upstream Data - Some upstream raw material prices are declining, with whole milk powder auction prices at $3,863 per ton, down 4.9% year-on-year, and fresh milk prices at 3.03 yuan per kilogram, down 1.6% year-on-year [17][19] - As of March 13, pork prices were 16.9 yuan per kilogram, down 30.9% year-on-year, while white strip chicken prices were stable at 17.4 yuan per kilogram, up 0.4% year-on-year [19][20] Recommendations - Recommended stocks include Guizhou Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, Ximai Foods, Haitian Flavoring, and Ganyuan Foods, with a focus on companies that can leverage market recovery and inflationary pressures [5][12]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the media industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report highlights the increasing integration of AI technologies in the media and gaming sectors, particularly through the OpenClaw platform, which is driving significant growth in model usage and cloud computing demand [3][31] - Apple's recent decision to lower the commission rate for in-app purchases from 30% to 25% is expected to enhance the profitability of mobile game companies, thereby creating a more favorable environment for growth in the gaming sector [4][31] Industry Data Overview - As of March 14, 2026, "Delta Operation" ranked first in the iOS free game chart in mainland China, while "Honor of Kings" topped the iOS revenue chart [12][16] - The upcoming game "Three Kingdoms: The World Returns" is set to launch on April 16, 2026, with over 3 million pre-registrations, indicating strong market interest [4][31] Industry News Summary - The OpenClaw platform is significantly increasing the usage of domestic AI models, with Kimi's valuation reportedly rising over three times within three months [31] - The gaming sector is benefiting from Apple's reduced commission rates, with the overseas version of "Heart Town" achieving a peak revenue of over $2.5 million in February 2026, reflecting a 221% month-over-month increase [31][34] Company Recommendations - Key recommendations include Tencent Holdings and Kuaishou for large models, with other beneficiaries including Alibaba, Baidu, and Minimax [3][6] - In the AI advertising space, the report recommends focusing on HuiLiang Technology, while for AI music and social applications, it suggests investing in Yuedu Group [3][6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the social services industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report highlights the robust performance of companies in the toy and commercial real estate sectors, with significant growth in revenue and profits driven by strategic initiatives and market conditions [4][31][51]. Summary by Sections 1. Toy Industry - The company "Blok" achieved a revenue of 1.575 billion yuan in H2 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 31.9%, with an adjusted net profit of 355 million yuan, up 21.3% [13][16]. - The company has commercialized 29 IPs by H2 2025, with a total of 73 authorized IPs in reserve, indicating a strong focus on product matrix expansion [17]. - LEGO reported a record revenue of 83.53 billion Danish kroner in 2025, a 12.4% increase year-on-year, with a significant rise in operating profit and net profit [31][36]. 2. Commercial Real Estate - Swire Properties reported a revenue of 16.041 billion HKD in 2025, an 11% increase year-on-year, with a substantial rise in net profit by 27% to 8.62 billion HKD [51][54]. - The retail sector in Hong Kong showed positive growth, with a rental reversal and strong sales performance in early 2026, driven by improved consumer sentiment [52][58]. - The report notes that geopolitical tensions in the Middle East may lead to increased capital inflow into Hong Kong real estate, positioning it as a key investment destination for sovereign wealth funds [60][61]. 3. Beauty Industry - In February 2026, the beauty category on Douyin saw a GMV of 21.85 billion yuan, with a slight decline of 1.13% year-on-year, indicating a slowdown in growth compared to previous years [63][66]. - The report emphasizes the differentiation in growth rates between instant gratification categories like makeup and longer-term trust-based categories like skincare, suggesting a need for brands to adapt their strategies accordingly [64][65]. 4. Market Performance - The Hong Kong stock market saw the consumer services index underperforming, while the retail sector outperformed the market, indicating varying performance across sectors [4][12].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [2] Core Insights - Domestic major companies are seizing market opportunities, with the "lobster craze" igniting growth in domestic AI models [6][15] - OpenAI's acquisition of OpenClaw marks a significant step towards the commercialization of AI [21] - The report highlights a surge in token consumption for domestic models, indicating increased user engagement [16] Summary by Sections Domestic Market - Major companies like Tencent, ByteDance, and Zhiyun are launching various AI applications, integrating with OpenClaw to enhance their offerings [6][15] - OpenClaw's usage has surged, with MiniMax M2.5 and Step 3.5 Flash leading in token consumption, accounting for approximately 1/6 of the total weekly token usage on the platform [16][20] International Market - OpenAI's acquisition of OpenClaw signifies a shift towards commercializing AI technologies, with other tech giants like NVIDIA and Meta also investing in AI platforms [21][22] - Despite the excitement in China, the enthusiasm for AI in Europe and the US remains limited, primarily confined to technical circles [22] Policy and Support - The Chinese government is actively supporting AI initiatives, with local policies providing substantial financial backing for qualifying projects [7][20] - Various regions are offering significant subsidies and support measures to promote AI development [20] Investment Recommendations - In the internet sector, focus on AI commercialization and application expansion, recommending stocks like Alibaba-W, Pinduoduo, and Baidu Group-SW, with Tencent Holdings as a beneficiary [9][31] - In the computing sector, there is an anticipated increase in AI demand, with recommendations for companies benefiting from IT spending, including Kingdee International and Baidu Group-SW [9][31] - In the automotive and autonomous driving sector, the approval of domestic L3 pilot licenses is expected to accelerate the commercialization of advanced driving technologies, with recommended stocks including XPeng Motors-W and Tesla [9][31]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report highlights that despite a slight decline in new and second-hand housing transactions, government policies are expected to stabilize the real estate market, leading to improved supply-demand dynamics and price stabilization [3][41] - The Ministry of Natural Resources has introduced a mechanism linking new construction land with the revitalization of existing land, aiming to enhance the efficiency of land resource allocation [4][12] - The 14th Five-Year Plan emphasizes the need for a new model of real estate development, focusing on multi-channel supply and a balanced housing system [11][14] Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In the 11th week of 2026, the new housing transaction area in 30 cities decreased by 6% year-on-year, totaling 186.4 million square meters, with a cumulative decline of 20.8% [5][15] - The second-hand housing transaction area in 15 cities fell by 18.8% year-on-year, amounting to 171.1 million square meters, with a cumulative decline of 8.7% [22][23] Investment Performance - In the 11th week of 2026, the land transaction area in 100 major cities reached 2,656.5 million square meters, showing a significant year-on-year increase of 448%, while the cumulative land transaction area for the first 11 weeks decreased by 9% [29][34] - The average land transaction price was 959 yuan per square meter, down 36% year-on-year, with a total land transaction value of 29.92 billion yuan, up 249% [34][35] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends maintaining a "Positive" rating for the industry, suggesting strong credit real estate companies that are well-positioned to meet the needs of improvement-oriented customers, such as Greentown China, China Overseas Development, and China Resources Land [41][42] - It also highlights companies benefiting from both residential and commercial real estate recovery, as well as high-quality property management firms under the "Good House, Good Service" policy [42]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report highlights that despite a slight decline in new and second-hand housing transactions, government policies are expected to stabilize the real estate market, leading to improved supply-demand dynamics and price stabilization [3][41] - The report emphasizes the introduction of a mechanism linking new construction land with the revitalization of existing land, which is aimed at optimizing land supply and management [4][12] Summary by Sections Policy Developments - The Ministry of Natural Resources announced a mechanism to link new construction land with the revitalization of existing land, aiming to improve the efficiency of land resource allocation [4][12] - The 14th Five-Year Plan emphasizes the need for a new model of real estate development, promoting a multi-supplier and multi-channel housing system [11][14] Sales Performance - In the 11th week of 2026, the new housing transaction area in 30 cities decreased by 6% year-on-year, with a cumulative decline of 20.8% [5][15] - The second-hand housing transaction area in 15 cities saw a year-on-year decline of 18.8% in the same week, with a cumulative decline of 8.7% [22][23] Investment Trends - The land transaction area in 100 major cities increased by 448% year-on-year in the 11th week, although the cumulative land transaction area showed a decline of 9% [29][34] - The average land transaction price was 959 yuan per square meter, down 36% year-on-year, while the total land transaction value reached 29.92 billion yuan, up 249% [34][35] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong credit profiles and good urban fundamentals, such as Greentown China, China Overseas Development, and China Resources Land [41][42] - It also suggests companies benefiting from both residential and commercial real estate recovery, as well as high-quality property management firms [42]