2025 年 12 月 16 日 策略研究团队 卫星产业迎来组网加速、成本拐点的黄金窗口期 ——投资策略点评 韦冀星（分析师） 简宇涵（分析师） weijixing@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790524030002 jianyuhan@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790525050005 科技高低切，重视卫星等具备强弹性的品种 我们此前于多篇报告中推荐卫星的投资机会：我们在《市场的双轮驱动：科技 &PPI 交易》中明确提出军工（卫星）的投资机会；在《广发中证卫星产业 ETF （512630.OF）的核心投资价值——市场规模大、政策技术双驱动、应用场景丰 富》中提出"卫星产业是确定性较强的战略投资机会，具备市场规模潜力大、政 策强力支持、技术迭代加速、应用场景拓宽等特征。""当下是配置卫星产业的时 间点"。更进一步的，当前商业航天（卫星）领域的催化进一步加速，我们认为 当下处在配置卫星产业的黄金窗口。 事件：近期低轨卫星频发，叠加可回收火箭发射的重大事件 今年以来，中国低轨卫星的发射频次明显增加，尤其是在卫星互联网方向，已经 形成了高密度、批量化的发射节奏。近期，卫星发射提速明显，实现"7 天三连 ...

Summary of Key Points Overall Perspective - The report highlights that social financing (社融) increased by 2.49 trillion yuan in November 2025, exceeding market expectations, with a year-on-year growth of 8.5% in social financing stock, remaining stable compared to the previous value [7][8] - The report indicates a structural differentiation in credit data, with traditional industries like real estate and infrastructure showing a decline in credit demand, while emerging industries are less reliant on bank loans [9] Industry Insights Electronics - The semiconductor equipment sector is identified as a key technology line with strong certainty and elasticity, with the semiconductor index rising by 3.30% [14] - The report notes that major overseas tech companies have underperformed, leading to a significant drop in the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index by 3.58% [14] Retail - The retail sales in November 2025 showed a year-on-year increase of 1.3%, with total retail sales amounting to 4.569 trillion yuan from January to November, reflecting a 4.0% increase year-on-year [19][20] - The report emphasizes the resilience of essential goods like grain and oil, while discretionary categories like jewelry performed relatively well [20] Real Estate - New home prices in November 2025 showed a reduced decline, with first-tier cities experiencing a larger drop compared to second and third-tier cities [24][25] - The report suggests that the real estate market is moving towards stabilization, supported by various policies aimed at preventing further declines [28] Media - The gaming sector is expected to see increased activity due to the upcoming holiday season, with new game releases anticipated to boost revenue [30] - The report highlights the collaboration between Disney and OpenAI, which is expected to enhance the value of content IP [31][33] Pharmaceuticals - The report discusses the acquisition of a multi-element injection asset group by Zuo Li Pharmaceutical, which is expected to enrich its product structure and enhance marketing synergy [43][44] - The market for multi-element injections is projected to reach approximately 1.8 billion yuan by 2024, with continued growth expected [44] Military Industry - Hua Qin Technology is positioned to benefit from the increasing demand for stealth materials due to the accelerated deployment of new stealth aircraft [48][49] - The company is also expanding into high-value areas related to aircraft engines, which is expected to create a second growth curve [50] Power Equipment and New Energy - Tian Ci Materials is recognized as a global leader in lithium hexafluorophosphate and electrolyte production, with a projected global market share of 35.7% in 2024 [51]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [2] Core Viewpoints - The real estate market is experiencing weak sales under high base conditions, with a trend of exchanging price for volume continuing towards the end of the year [1][5] - The overall performance of the sales market has been lackluster since the second half of the year, with a significant decline in sales data reflecting persistent market hesitation [8][33] Summary by Sections Sales Data - From January to November 2025, the national commercial housing sales area was 787 million square meters, down 7.8% year-on-year, with residential sales area down 8.1% [5][14] - In November 2025, the sales area and amount of commercial housing decreased by 17.3% and 25.1% year-on-year, respectively, with a notable trend of price reduction to stimulate sales [5][14] Construction Data - The new construction area from January to November 2025 was 535 million square meters, down 20.5% year-on-year, with residential new construction down 19.9% [6][19] - The completion area was 395 million square meters, down 18.0% year-on-year, indicating continued pressure on construction data [6][19] Investment Data - Real estate development investment from January to November 2025 was 7.86 trillion yuan, down 15.9% year-on-year, with residential development investment down 15.0% [7][23] - The funds available to real estate developers were 8.51 trillion yuan, down 11.9% year-on-year, with significant declines in various funding sources [7][25] Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies include those with strong credit and good urban fundamentals, such as Greentown China, China Merchants Shekou, and China Overseas Development [8][35] - Companies benefiting from both residential and commercial real estate recovery, such as China Resources Land and Longfor Group, are also recommended [8][35]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The semiconductor equipment sector is characterized by strong certainty and resilience, making it a key focus in technology investments [1] - The electronic industry index increased by 1.36% this week, with semiconductors leading the gains at 3.30% [3] - The U.S. is expected to allow NVIDIA to sell H200 chips to China, while the storage supply-demand tightness continues [4] Summary by Sections Industry Trends - AI edge products are experiencing explosive growth, with Google showcasing its Project Aura smart glasses and announcing hardware plans for the coming years [4] - The semiconductor industry is seeing significant revenue growth, with Broadcom reporting a 28% year-over-year increase in revenue, and AI semiconductor revenue expected to double to $8.2 billion [4] Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on semiconductor equipment investment opportunities, particularly with Changxin's IPO progress and advanced logic expansion [5] - Beneficiary stocks include Northern Huachuang, Zhongwei Company, Tuojing Technology, and others [5]

2025 年 12 月 15 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 商贸零售 行业走势图 《医美化妆品 11 月月报：美丽田园收 购思妍丽 100%股权，双十一大促落幕 美 妆 表 现 亮 眼 — 行 业 点 评 报 告 》 -2025.12.3 11 月社零同比+1.3%，整体增速有所承压 ——行业点评报告 | 黄泽鹏（分析师） | 李昕恬（联系人） | | --- | --- | | huangzepeng@kysec.cn | lixintian@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790519110001 | 证书编号：S0790125100021 | 数据来源：聚源 -36% -24% -12% 0% 12% 24% 2024-12 2025-04 2025-08 商贸零售 沪深300 相关研究报告 《商务部明确零售品质转型，关注永 辉超市调改成效 — 行 业 周 报 》 -2025.12.14 《林清轩更新招股书，关注高端国货 护 肤 公 司 上 市 进 展 — 行 业 周 报 》 -2025.12.7 lixintian@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790125100021 2025 年 11 月 ...

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic demand as the primary driver for economic growth in 2026, with a focus on implementing consumption-boosting initiatives and enhancing the domestic market [11][12][13] - The contribution rate of domestic demand to economic growth from 2021 to 2024 is projected to be 86.4%, with final consumption accounting for an average contribution rate of 56.2% [12][13] - The report highlights the shift in the retail industry towards quality and service-driven growth, as discussed in the National Retail Innovation Development Conference [15][16] Group 2 - The North Exchange's consumer services sector saw a weekly increase of 0.44%, with food and beverage sector rising by 3.32% [25][31] - As of December 13, 2025, there are 25 companies related to the consumer services sector in the North Exchange's queue, with an average revenue of 1.242 billion yuan and an average net profit of 140.35 million yuan for 2024 [47][48] - Notable companies in the consumer services sector include Yizhi Moyu, which has a market value of 3.555 billion yuan and a net profit of 62.34 million yuan for 2025 Q1-Q3 [24][35] Group 3 - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for November 2025 increased by 0.7% year-on-year, primarily driven by rising food prices [36][38] - The average wholesale price of pork is reported at 17.65 yuan per kilogram, while the average price of eggs is at 7.43 yuan per kilogram, reflecting market conditions [40][41] - The report indicates that the average price of fresh milk in major producing provinces is 3.02 yuan per kilogram, remaining stable compared to the previous week [46] Group 4 - The report outlines the significant sales performance during the "Double 11" shopping festival, with home appliances, digital devices, and clothing being the top three categories by sales volume [19][21] - The "Double 12" shopping event is set to further stimulate consumer spending, with various platforms launching promotional activities [18][22] - The report identifies 20 related stocks in the North Exchange for the "Double 12" event, covering categories such as home appliances, personal care, and food and beverages [23][24]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the real estate industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report indicates that new housing transaction areas for both new and second-hand homes have decreased year-on-year, emphasizing the need to stabilize the real estate market [3] - The overall trend in the real estate market is moving towards stabilization, supported by various policies aimed at halting the decline [8] - The report highlights that while new home prices have shown a slight decrease, the decline in second-hand home prices has remained stable [21] Summary by Sections New Housing Prices - In November 2025, new housing prices in first, second, and third-tier cities decreased by -0.4%, -0.3%, and -0.4% respectively, with the overall decline in 70 cities being -0.4%, a reduction in the rate of decline compared to October [15][17] - Year-on-year, new housing prices in first, second, and third-tier cities fell by -1.2%, -2.2%, and -3.5%, leading to an overall year-on-year decline of 2.8% across 70 cities [15][17] Second-Hand Housing Prices - The second-hand housing prices in November 2025 saw a month-on-month decline of -0.7%, with first, second, and third-tier cities experiencing declines of -1.1%, -0.6%, and -0.6% respectively [21] - Year-on-year, second-hand housing prices across 70 cities decreased by -5.7%, with first, second, and third-tier cities showing declines of -5.8%, -5.6%, and -5.8% respectively [21] Market Performance in Key Cities - In November 2025, new housing prices in key cities showed mixed results, with cities like Shanghai leading with a year-on-year increase of +5.1% [29][30] - The report notes that second-hand housing prices in 35 key cities have uniformly declined, with significant drops in cities like Chengdu and Hohhot [30] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on real estate companies with strong credit ratings and good fundamentals in cities, such as Greentown China, China Overseas Development, and China Merchants Shekou [8] - It also suggests companies that benefit from both residential and commercial real estate sectors, like China Resources Land and Longfor Group, as well as high-quality property management firms under the "Good House, Good Service" policy [8]

Report Information - Date: December 15, 2025 [1] - Team: Fixed Income Research Team [2] - Analysts: Chen Xi, Wang Shuaizhong [3] - Event: The central bank announced the financial data for November 2025 [3] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - In the second half of 2025, the economic growth rate may not decline significantly [8] - Structural problems such as prices are expected to improve trend - wise [8] - The stock - bond allocation continues to switch, and bond yields are expected to rise continuously [8] Summary by Related Content Financial Data Overview - In November 2025, the new social financing was 2.49 trillion yuan, slightly exceeding the average of the same period from 2021 - 2024. The median forecast of 16 institutions in Wind was 2.18 trillion yuan, and the average was 2.02 trillion yuan [4] - As of the end of the third quarter of 2025, the government sector leverage ratio was 67.5%, up 8.8 pct from the same period in 2024; the household sector leverage ratio was 60.4%, down 1.2 pct from the same period in 2024 [4] - From January to November 2025, the cumulative increase in social financing scale was 33.39 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 13.6% [3] - M1 increased by 4.9% year - on - year, M2 increased by 8.0% year - on - year, and M0 increased by 10.6% year - on - year. From January to October, 917.5 billion yuan of cash was net - injected [3] Factors Affecting Social Financing and Loans - The new social financing in November exceeded expectations due to the implementation of policy - based financial instruments, the increase in net corporate bond financing and trust loans. In November, the trust loan volume was 8.44 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.3 times; the net corporate bond financing volume was 416.9 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 75.1% [4] - The decline in loan data was affected by multiple factors. The economic structure is in a transition stage, and the credit demand of traditional industries such as real estate and infrastructure has declined. Emerging industries rely less on bank loans. Local government debt resolution will also pull down loan growth periodically [5] - In November, household loans decreased by 206.3 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 154.1 billion yuan and a year - on - year decrease of 630.4 billion yuan. The decrease in household medium - and short - term loans may reflect weak household demand and more cautious consumption, while the decrease in long - term loans may be related to the continued downturn in the real estate market [5] - In enterprise loans, bill financing was 334.2 billion yuan, still the main increase in new RMB loans in November [5] Market Performance - After the release of financial data on December 12, 2025, the bond market yield did not change significantly, and the long - term yield showed an upward trend during the day. Recent events such as the Politburo meeting, the Fed's interest rate cut, and the Central Economic Work Conference have all landed [7] Bond Market Viewpoint - Against the backdrop of the correction of economic expectations, bond yields are expected to rise trend - wise [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company is set to acquire a multi-element injection liquid asset group from Future Pharmaceuticals for a total price of RMB 356 million, which includes both marketed and in-development products [5][6] - The acquisition is expected to enhance the company's product structure and expand its treatment areas, leveraging its market advantages in collective procurement and essential drug products [7] - The projected net profits for 2025-2027 are estimated to be RMB 667 million, RMB 845 million, and RMB 1,067 million respectively, with corresponding EPS of RMB 0.95, RMB 1.20, and RMB 1.52 per share [5][8] Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 1,942 million in 2023 to RMB 4,472 million in 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 17.3% [8] - The gross margin is expected to stabilize around 61% in the coming years, while the net profit margin is projected to increase from 19.7% in 2023 to 23.8% in 2027 [8] - The company's P/E ratio is forecasted to decrease from 33.6 in 2023 to 12.0 in 2027, indicating an attractive valuation as earnings grow [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the media industry [1] Core Insights - The gaming sector is expected to see a significant increase in revenue due to the upcoming holiday season and the launch of new games, with notable titles like "Nine Muses of the Wild" and "Goose Duck Kill" generating high anticipation [3] - The film industry is highlighted by the upcoming release of "Avatar 3," which has already garnered significant pre-sale interest, indicating strong potential for box office performance [3] - The emotional economy in China is projected to grow substantially, with the market expected to reach 8.1 trillion yuan by 2030, driven by online platforms and AI technology [11][12] Summary by Sections 1. Soul: Leading Immersive Social Platform - Soul is positioned as a leading platform in the immersive social space, leveraging AI to enhance user engagement and emotional value [11][17] - The emotional economy in China is projected to grow from 2.4 trillion yuan in 2024 to 8.1 trillion yuan by 2030, with a CAGR of 22.2% [12] - The platform reported a revenue of 16.83 billion yuan in the first eight months of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 17.82% [21][26] 2. Industry Data Overview - "Delta Action" topped the iOS free game chart, while "Honor of Kings" led the iOS revenue chart as of December 13, 2025 [27][31] - The film "Zootopia 2" achieved the highest weekly box office, indicating strong audience interest [41] 3. Industry News Summary - The release of GPT-5.2 is expected to enhance AI capabilities in the industry, while Disney's investment in OpenAI emphasizes the growing value of content IP [3] - The gaming sector is experiencing a surge, with "Delta Action" achieving record daily revenue following a new season launch [3] 4. Announcement Summary - Recent changes in leadership at various media companies and the successful "hat removal" of Caesar Culture highlight ongoing developments in the industry [3] 5. Sector Performance Overview - The A-share media sector performed moderately in the market, with the gaming sector showing strong performance [3]