证券研究报告 晨会 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 05 月 27 日 投资要点： 资料来源：聚源，华源证券研究所，截至2025年05月27日 华源晨会精粹 20250527 农林牧渔 生猪价格持续走弱，建议关注低成本高成长龙头——农林牧渔行业周报： 生猪：本周涌益数据最新猪价降至 14.31 元/kg，出栏均重略降至 129.38kg，15Kg 仔猪报价维持 627 元/头左右。近期二育栏舍利用率下行、积极性下降，短期猪价走 势或震荡偏弱，4 月农业部数据中大猪存栏同比+6.5%、环比+0.6%，后续供应压力 或持续。中长期看全年总体供给偏多，猪价弱势较为确定。肉鸡：上周全球最大鸡 肉出口国巴西爆发商业养殖场禽流感，已暂停出口中国，或助推国内鸡肉价格回暖。 目前巴西向中国提出仅针对于出现禽流感疫情的蒙特内格鲁市产品禁运的建议，后 续若巴西 28 天无疫情则将重新被认定为"无禽流感国家"。宠物：海关 4 月狗食或 猫食饲料及罐头销售额数据显示，剔除春节因素后出现 22 个月以来的首次下滑，对 美国出口大幅下滑。非美地区出口也有所放缓，或与转口贸易有关。贸易摩擦的不 确定性导致客户下单更为谨慎。建议持续 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the construction materials industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the U.S.-China geopolitical competition may accelerate the narrative around nuclear power, with nuclear fusion emerging as a key competitive point. Recent U.S. executive orders aim to revitalize the nuclear energy sector, which could benefit related companies in the context of increased capital expenditure driven by military competition [4] - The report anticipates that 2025 will be a turning point for listed companies, with 2026 marking an industry inflection point. It suggests that the current market downturn presents opportunities to capitalize on "cognitive differences" [4] Summary by Sections 1. Controlled Nuclear Fusion Research - Controlled nuclear fusion offers unparalleled advantages over other energy sources, including abundant raw materials from seawater and minimal environmental impact [8] - The global number of operational fusion devices has reached over 100, with various countries accelerating their fusion development strategies [12][16] 2. Sector Tracking - The construction materials index has decreased by 1.1%, with cement and glass fiber sectors showing varied performance [25] - Notable stock performances include companies like Xiong Plastic Technology (+13.2%) and Jingang Photovoltaic (+11.7%) [25] 3. Data Tracking Cement - The average price of 42.5 cement nationwide is 370.8 RMB/ton, down 7.8 RMB/ton month-on-month but up 5.2% year-on-year [33] - The cement inventory ratio is 65.3%, showing a month-on-month increase of 1.3 percentage points [33] Float Glass - The average price of 5mm float glass is 1378.3 RMB/ton, down 16.6 RMB/ton month-on-month and down 401.5 RMB/ton year-on-year [50] Photovoltaic Glass - The average price for 2.0mm coated photovoltaic glass is 13.7 RMB/sqm, remaining stable month-on-month but down 4.2 RMB/sqm year-on-year [55] Glass Fiber - The average price for alkali-free glass fiber yarn is 4700.0 RMB/ton, down 10.0 RMB/ton month-on-month but up 45.0% year-on-year [60] Carbon Fiber - The average price for large tow carbon fiber is 72.5 RMB/kg, stable month-on-month but down 5.0 RMB/kg year-on-year [63]

11- 分 11 7 11 7 0 北交所定期报告 2025年05月26日 固态电池与氢燃料电池降本趋势持续,关注北交所固态电池&氢能产业企业 证券分析师 赵昊 SAC: S1350524110004 zhaohao@huayuanstock.com 万泉 SAC: S1350524100001 wanxiao@huayuanstock.com 联系 北交所科技成长产业跟踪第二十七期(20250525) 公告:海泰新能拟在印尼建设"2GW 光伏电池片及 1GW 组件项目"作为新增寨投项目。成都瑞奇智造科技股 A 份有限公司取得 1 项国家知识产权局授予的实用新型专利证书,实用新型名称:一种带翅片管的吸附柱及尾气 回收系统。唐山海泰新能科技股份有限公司拟在印尼建设"2GW 光伏电池片及 1GW 组件项目"作为新增募投 项目,项目总投资约6亿元人民币。 A 风险提示:宏观经济环境变动风险、市场竞争风险、资料统计误差风险。 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 A 总量:北交所科技成长股股价涨跌幅中值-5.38%。2025年5月 19 日至 23 日，北交所科技成长产业 146 家企 A 业少数上涨,区间涨跌 ...

证券研究报告 | 北交所定期报告 | | --- | hyzqdatemark 2025 年 05 月 26 日 证券分析师 赵昊 SAC：S1350524110004 zhaohao@huayuanstock.com 万枭 SAC：S1350524100001 wanxiao@huayuanstock.com 固态电池与氢燃料电池降本趋势持续，关注北交所固态电池&氢能产业企业 ——北交所科技成长产业跟踪第二十七期（20250525） 投资要点： 风险提示：宏观经济环境变动风险、市场竞争风险、资料统计误差风险。 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 联系人 液态锂电池仍有能量密度存在上限等不足，固态电池与氢燃料电池降本趋势持续。液态锂电池仍有能量密度存在 上限、锂枝晶引起的安全风险、SEI 膜增厚影响循环寿命、低温性能不足限制场景应用等不足。因此，发展固态 电池和氢燃料电池不仅是解决现有技术瓶颈的关键路径，也是满足未来多样化应用需求的重要方向。（1）固态 电池：固态电池产业化建设已取得实质进展，多家固态电池企业宣布了其量产计划，例如，中创新航全固态电池 技术能量密度达 430wh/kg，预计 2028 ...

证券研究报告 农林牧渔 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 05 月 26 日 投资评级： 看好（维持） 雷轶 SAC：S1350524110001 leiyi@huayuanstock.com 冯佳文 SAC：S1350524120003 fengjiawen@huayuanstock.com 顾超 SAC：S1350524110005 guchao@huayuanstock.com 李冉 liran02@huayuanstock.com 板块表现： 生猪价格持续走弱，建议关注低成本 高成长龙头 ——农林牧渔行业周报（20250519-20250523） 证券分析师 投资要点： 生猪：猪价持续走弱，4 月行业中大猪存栏环比微增。 联系人 本周涌益数据最新猪价降至 14.31 元/kg，出栏均重略降至 129.38kg，15Kg 仔猪报 价维持 627 元/头左右。近期二育栏舍利用率下行、积极性下降，短期猪价走势或震 荡偏弱，4 月农业部数据中大猪存栏同比+6.5%、环比+0.6%，后续供应压力或持续。 中长期看全年总体供给偏多，猪价弱势较为确定。产能方面，4 月官方全国能繁母猪 存栏量 4 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the small metals and new materials sector is "Positive" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The report highlights that tungsten prices have reached historical highs while antimony prices are adjusting, with materials expected to benefit from the acceleration of commercial nuclear fusion [4] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring overseas rare earth prices in June, with expectations of a general price increase but limited growth compared to May [6] - The report suggests that the recent easing of tariffs between China and the US may create opportunities for new materials exports, particularly for companies with high export exposure [10][11] Summary by Sections Rare Earths - Recent price movements include a 1.42% increase in praseodymium-neodymium oxide to 429,000 CNY/ton, a 1.22% decrease in dysprosium oxide to 1,625,000 CNY/ton, and a 0.07% increase in terbium oxide to 7,080,000 CNY/ton [6][13] - Key factors to watch include the implementation timeline of the total rare earth control draft, export quotas, and imports from Myanmar [6] Molybdenum - Molybdenum concentrate prices increased by 4.30% to 3,635 CNY/ton, while molybdenum iron (Mo60) prices rose by 4.87% to 237,000 CNY/ton [21] Tungsten - Black tungsten concentrate prices rose by 7.89% to 164,000 CNY/ton, and ammonium paratungstate prices increased by 8.74% to 242,500 CNY/ton [24] Tin - SHFE tin prices increased by 1.95% to 264,600 CNY/ton, and LME tin prices rose by 2.99% to 3.27 USD/ton [33] Antimony - Antimony ingot prices decreased by 5.32% to 222,500 CNY/ton, and antimony concentrate prices fell by 3.70% to 195,000 CNY/ton [48] New Materials - The report notes a window of opportunity for new materials exports due to the recent tariff adjustments, suggesting a potential recovery for companies like BQ New Materials and others [10][11] - The commercial acceleration of controlled nuclear fusion is expected to benefit upstream materials, with significant developments reported in both domestic and international projects [11]

Industry Overview - The global seed industry has a high concentration, with a CR5 of 52% in 2021, while China's seed industry CR5 is only 17%, indicating significant room for improvement[4] - Major grain prices in China have shown a slight increase, with corn prices up by 11.9%, while soybean prices decreased by 0.7%, and wheat prices increased by 2.9% as of May 23, 2025[4] Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs) - Three batches of genetically modified corn varieties have been approved for commercialization, totaling 161 varieties, with significant advantages for leading companies[4][16] - The domestic market for genetically modified crops is expected to accelerate, with companies like Kangnong Seed focusing on high-yield and resilient hybrid corn varieties[19] Company Performance - Kangnong Seed's revenue for 2024 is projected to be 337 million yuan, representing a year-over-year increase of 16.80%, with a net profit of approximately 82.60 million yuan and gross/net profit margins of 35.79% and 24.72%, respectively[30] - The company's three-year CAGR for revenue and net profit from 2021 to 2024 is 33.45% and 24.53%, respectively, indicating strong growth potential[30] Market Trends - The median price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for the North Exchange consumer service sector decreased from 57.9X to 53.2X, reflecting a broader market trend[34] - The total market capitalization of the North Exchange consumer service sector fell from 119.36 billion yuan to 116.79 billion yuan during the week of May 19 to May 23, 2025[38] Risk Factors - Potential risks include macroeconomic fluctuations, market competition, and statistical data inaccuracies, which could impact the overall market performance[52]

Investment Rating - Investment rating: None [4] Core Insights - The report highlights significant developments in the U.S. nuclear energy sector, driven by three key executive orders signed by President Trump, which aim to revamp the nuclear energy supply chain, enhance reactor testing mechanisms, and optimize regulatory approval processes. This comprehensive approach is expected to shorten the construction cycle for nuclear power plants and clarify the commercialization path for Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) and fourth-generation reactors [5][17][18]. Summary by Sections 1. Overseas AI - The report notes a market pullback in Hong Kong and U.S. tech stocks during the week of May 19 to May 23, 2025, with the Hang Seng Tech Index closing at 5246.9, down 0.7%, underperforming the Hang Seng Index by 1.8 percentage points. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index closed at 4702.4, down 4.5%, lagging behind the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 indices [8][10]. 2. Key Events in Nuclear Energy - The executive orders focus on three main areas: 1. "Revitalizing the Nuclear Industry Foundation" aims to establish a strategic direction for the production and procurement of HALEU/LEU/HEU, facilitating a complete supply chain from fuel supply to power plant construction [17]. 2. "Reforming the Department of Energy's Reactor Testing" seeks to streamline the approval process for advanced reactors, reducing the time from technology validation to commercial deployment [18]. 3. "Reforming the Nuclear Regulatory Commission" aims to shorten approval timelines to 18 months and set a target to increase nuclear capacity from approximately 100 GW in 2024 to 400 GW by 2050 [18]. 3. Web3 and Cryptocurrency Market - The global cryptocurrency market capitalization rose to $3.46 trillion as of May 23, 2025, up from $3.32 trillion the previous week. The total trading volume for cryptocurrencies reached $170.07 billion, accounting for 4.92% of the total market capitalization [20][24]. - The sentiment in the cryptocurrency market is currently in the "greed" zone, with a Fear and Greed Index reading of 76 [24]. 4. Notable Stock Movements - The report lists the top five gainers in the nuclear energy sector for the week, including NANO NUCLEAR ENERGY (+32%), OKLO (+30%), and NUSCALE POWER (+25%). Conversely, the top five losers included WOLFSPEED (-63%) and AMD (-5.9%) [10][12].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in the near future [2][5]. Core Insights - The company, Jiao Da Tie Fa, is recognized as a national-level "Little Giant" in the field of rail transit infrastructure safety and intelligent products, with a focus on technological innovation and industry upgrades supported by the National Railway Group [2][11]. - The company plans to raise funds through an initial public offering (IPO) to invest in new production projects, a research center, and marketing networks, which are expected to significantly increase revenue and profit [8][9]. - The rail transit infrastructure market is experiencing substantial growth, with national fixed asset investment in railways reaching 850.6 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 11.3% [33][37]. Summary by Sections 1. Initial Issuance - The company is issuing 19.09 million shares at a price of 8.81 yuan per share, with an initial price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 12.6X [2][5]. - The total number of shares after issuance will be 76.34 million, with the issuance accounting for 25.01% of the total shares before any over-allotment [5][6]. 2. Fundraising and Investment Projects - The funds raised will be allocated to projects including the construction of a new production facility for rail transit intelligent products, a research center, and a marketing and after-sales service network [8][9]. - The new production project is expected to generate an additional annual revenue of approximately 247.15 million yuan and a net profit of about 30.10 million yuan upon reaching full capacity [9][10]. 3. Company Overview - Founded in 2005, the company specializes in rail transit safety products and has established partnerships with several universities and research institutions [11]. - The company has participated in significant national railway projects, including the Beijing-Zhangjiakou High-Speed Railway and the Jakarta-Bandung High-Speed Railway [11]. 4. Financial Performance - From 2020 to 2024, the company's revenue is projected to grow from 154 million yuan to 335 million yuan, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 21% [27]. - The net profit is expected to increase from 19.85 million yuan to 53.39 million yuan during the same period, with a CAGR of 28% [27][32]. 5. Market Potential - The report highlights the strategic importance of railway construction and information technology in promoting economic development, with significant investments planned for the coming years [33][34]. - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the growing demand for rail transit infrastructure, supported by government policies and increasing urbanization [33][38].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the transportation industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The express delivery demand remains high, with significant growth in logistics performance. In April 2025, major express companies reported substantial business volume increases, with SF Express achieving a growth rate of 30.0% [4][29] - The logistics market is experiencing a shift towards consolidation, with leading companies like SF Express and JD Logistics benefiting from macroeconomic recovery and cost control measures [12] - The shipping sector is expected to see continued demand growth due to OPEC+ production increases and limited new oil tanker orders, which will tighten supply [12] Summary by Sections Express Logistics - In April 2025, the total business volume for express services reached 16.32 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 19.1%, with total revenue of 121.28 billion yuan, up 10.8% [23] - SF Express led the growth with a business volume of 1.335 billion pieces, up 29.99%, while YTO Express and Yunda Express also showed strong performance [4][29] Shipping - The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) rose by 7.2% to 1586 points, indicating an increase in shipping rates [9] - The oil tanker market is expected to benefit from OPEC+ production increases, while the dry bulk shipping market is anticipated to recover due to supply constraints and regulatory pressures [12] Aviation - In April 2025, civil aviation transported approximately 60.93 million passengers, a year-on-year increase of 8.9%, with cargo volume rising by 16.8% [51] - The industry is expected to benefit from a long-term supply-demand imbalance, with potential for significant growth as macroeconomic conditions improve [12] Supply Chain Logistics - Companies like Shenzhen International are expected to see performance improvements due to the transformation of logistics parks and high dividend yields [12] - The competitive landscape in the express delivery sector is stabilizing, providing opportunities for companies like Deppon Logistics and Aneng Logistics to enhance profitability [12]