证券研究报告 机械设备 行业点评报告 | --- | --- | |--------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------| | | | | hyzqdatemark 2024 年 12 月 04 日 | 管制边际升级，HBM 国产化迫在眉睫 | | 投资评级： 看好（维持） | ——美国出口管理条例修订与国内四大协会发声点评 投资要点： | 证券分析师 戴铭余 SAC：S1350524060003 daimingyu@huayuanstock.com 王彬鹏 SAC：S1350524090001 wangbinpeng@huayuanstock.com 郦悦轩 SAC：S1350524080001 liyuexuan@huayuanstock.com （1）12 月 2 日，美国商务部工业与安全局（BIS）再次修订出口管理条例（EAR），进 一步强化新规，限制中国在半导体领域的发展，主要涵盖高带宽内存芯片（HBM）管制 新规、24 种半导体设备和 3 种软 ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company, highlighting its strong performance and potential in the cosmetics sector [4][52]. Core Insights - The company has been deeply engaged in the cosmetics industry for 20 years, successfully implementing a multi-brand strategy that includes brands like Han Shu, One Leaf, and Red Elephant. The main brand, Han Shu, has seen significant growth, particularly in the Douyin channel, achieving a GMV of 3.34 billion yuan in 2023, a 374% increase from 2022 [22][10]. - The company's growth is driven by a combination of product quality, innovative marketing strategies, and effective channel management, particularly through Douyin [10][41][43]. Summary by Sections 1. Multi-Brand Strategy and Performance Recovery - The company has established itself as a leader in the domestic cosmetics market, ranking among the top five in retail sales from 2015 to 2021. In 2021, it was the only domestic company with two skincare brands achieving annual retail sales exceeding 1.5 billion yuan [22][10]. - In 2022, the company faced a revenue decline of 25.4% to 2.71 billion yuan, primarily due to supply chain issues and reduced R&D spending. However, strategic adjustments in late 2022 led to a strong recovery in 2023, particularly for the Han Shu brand [22][10]. 2. Product, Marketing, and Channel Strategies - **Product**: The Han Shu brand's "Red Slim Waist" anti-aging set is positioned as a high-value product, priced at 399 yuan, which offers a competitive advantage over similar products [41][38]. - **Marketing**: The company has effectively utilized short dramas for product placement, achieving significant exposure and engagement. Collaborations with influencers have resulted in high viewership, with some dramas reaching over 1.2 billion views [41][42]. - **Channel**: The company has built a robust live-streaming matrix and adjusted its influencer collaboration strategy to optimize traffic conversion. The focus has shifted from top-tier influencers to mid-tier ones for better cost efficiency [43][44]. 3. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 7.13 billion, 9.11 billion, and 10.62 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 69.1%, 27.9%, and 16.5%. Net profits are expected to reach 820 million, 1.15 billion, and 1.42 billion yuan, with growth rates of 77.4%, 40.4%, and 23.6% [51][8]. - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios are projected to be 15, 11, and 9 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, indicating a favorable valuation compared to peers [51][52].

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage in the market [2][4][9]. Core Viewpoints - The company has deeply engaged in the electrophysiology sector, establishing a comprehensive product layout that includes devices, mapping catheters, and ablation catheters. It has achieved significant technological innovations, leading the domestic atrial fibrillation treatment solutions to a global stage [2][3][11]. - The report highlights the rapid growth of three-dimensional surgical procedures and the comprehensive development of the energy platform, indicating a strong market potential for the company's products [2][3]. Summary by Relevant Sections Comprehensive Layout of Domestic Electrophysiology Leader - The company, founded in 2010, focuses on electrophysiological interventional diagnosis and ablation treatment, continuously launching innovative products, many of which are domestic firsts. It has established a complete layout for radiofrequency, cryoablation, and pulsed ablation technologies, with over 70,000 three-dimensional cardiac electrophysiology surgeries performed globally [26][27]. Technological Iteration and Collective Procurement Accelerating Industry Expansion - The report notes that the domestic electrophysiology device market was valued at 6.58 billion yuan in 2021, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 24.34% from 2021 to 2025, potentially reaching 15.73 billion yuan by 2025. The company is positioned to benefit from collective procurement initiatives that are expected to accelerate the replacement of imported products with domestic brands [3][4][11]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to generate total revenues of 438 million yuan, 580 million yuan, and 787 million yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with growth rates of 33.00%, 32.45%, and 35.63%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 37 million yuan, 64 million yuan, and 111 million yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 547.65%, 73.08%, and 74.68% [4][9][31]. Market Performance - The company has achieved a significant market presence, with its first-generation product, the Columbus three-dimensional electrophysiology mapping system, approved in 2015. The system has evolved to its fourth generation, with clinical data supporting rapid product iteration. The company has also strategically positioned itself in potential markets with ongoing projects, including pressure pulsed ablation catheters and renal artery radiofrequency ablation systems [3][4][11]. Key Assumptions - The report outlines key assumptions regarding the growth of catheter and device revenues, with expected growth rates of 35.00% for catheters and 11.50% for devices from 2024 to 2026, driven by the launch of new products and the increasing acceptance of domestic brands [10][11]. Investment Logic Points - The company is recognized as a leading domestic electrophysiology manufacturer, with a comprehensive product matrix that enhances its competitive edge. The electrophysiology market is in a rapid growth phase, with increasing recognition of domestic products and the implementation of collective procurement driving the replacement of imported brands [11].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The company reported a record high revenue of 8.8 billion RMB for the first half of FY25, representing a year-on-year increase of 17.8%, with net profit growing by 23.0% to 1.13 billion RMB [1] - The core business revenue increased by 22.7%, driven by the brand's down jacket segment, which achieved a revenue of 6.06 billion RMB [4] - The company has a strong brand presence and product development capabilities, leading to significant growth potential in the down apparel and summer product segments [5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For FY25 H1, the company achieved a revenue of 8.8 billion RMB, operating profit of 1.47 billion RMB, and net profit of 1.13 billion RMB, all marking historical highs [1] - The net profit margin for FY25 H1 was 12.8%, continuing its upward trend [1] Business Segments - The main brand's revenue increased by 19.4% to 5.28 billion RMB, with a gross margin of 66.3% [4] - The OEM processing business grew by 13.4% to 2.32 billion RMB, while diversified apparel business revenue rose by 21.3% to 117 million RMB [4] Market Performance - The company has implemented a Top Store model and enhanced online-offline collaboration, resulting in a 24.1% increase in online sales revenue for the down jacket segment [5] - The company ranked second in Tmall's women's clothing and men's clothing categories during the 2024 Double Eleven shopping festival [5] Profit Forecast - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 3.53 billion RMB, 4.15 billion RMB, and 4.83 billion RMB for FY25, FY26, and FY27, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 14.94%, 17.38%, and 16.35% [5][7]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [3]. Core Insights - The company, Yaoji Technology, is a leader in the Chinese playing card industry, leveraging its fully automated production capabilities and strong brand reputation to capture market share. The company aims to increase its market share from 25% in 2021 to 32% by 2028 with the completion of a new production base [2]. - The gaming business is also performing well, with popular titles maintaining user engagement and market competitiveness. The company is expanding its overseas market presence, which presents significant growth potential [2]. - The advertising and marketing segment is expected to benefit from the growth of TikTok, as the company has established deep partnerships with ByteDance, enhancing its online marketing solutions [2]. - The company is advancing its card game strategy through investments in card-related businesses, aiming to create a comprehensive card ecosystem [2]. Financial Projections - The projected net profits for the company from 2024 to 2026 are estimated at 580 million, 700 million, and 800 million yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 3.3%, 20.0%, and 15.3% [2]. - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 22.5, 18.8, and 16.3 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [2]. - The company’s revenue is expected to grow from 4,353 million yuan in 2024 to 5,229 million yuan in 2026, with corresponding growth rates of 1.07% and 11.55% [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the media and internet industry [4]. Core Insights - The integration of AI and AR is driving real changes across various segments, with a focus on areas such as companionship, gaming, agents, video, and e-commerce [3][4]. - The report emphasizes the importance of user feedback and innovation in content and business models, particularly for companies that embrace new technologies and have data, user, and application advantages [6][9]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance Tracking - From November 25 to November 29, 2024, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.81%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 1.66%, and the ChiNext Index by 2.23%. The media sector ranked 5th among all industries with a growth of 4.48% [20][23]. AI Investment Events - There were 11 AI investment events reported, with OpenAI leading with a strategic investment of $1.5 billion, valuing the company at approximately 1,020.5 billion RMB. Other notable investments include /dev/agents with $56 million in seed funding, valued at 3.25 billion RMB [46][47]. Gaming Insights - The top-selling games in China during the week included "Honor of Kings," "Dungeon & Fighter," and "Peacekeeper Elite," indicating strong market performance [48][51]. - The report highlights the performance of casual games on platforms like WeChat and QQ, with "Endless Winter" and "Shoot the Zombies" leading the charts [52][56]. Film Performance - The total box office for the week from November 25 to December 1 was 307 million RMB, with "Good Things" leading at 152.78 million RMB, capturing 49.7% of the market share [62].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating to Kaiying Network (002517 SZ) for the first time [2] Core Views - Kaiying Network has established a solid foundation with its nostalgic games, particularly in the Legend and Miracle game categories, which have a broad user base, strong stability, and high ARPU values [2] - The company completed the acquisition of Zhejiang Shenghe in 2023, which contributed RMB 737 million in net profit in H1 2024, a 38 5% YoY increase, and is expected to reach new highs in profit contribution for 2024 [2] - The company's chairman has been increasing his shareholding since 2020, with three increases in 2024 alone, reaching a 14 77% stake by the end of Q3 2024, and the chairman and executives have pledged not to reduce their holdings for the next five years, demonstrating strong confidence in the company's long-term development [4] - Kaiying Network has a robust pipeline of new games, including "Liangshan Legend," "Taishang Butian Scroll," "Tomb Raider: Departure," "Douluo Dalu: Zhuxie Legend," "Dragon Nest World," and "Romance of the Three Kingdoms: The World Returns to the Heart," with a rich IP portfolio supporting its product diversification strategy [4] - The company is deeply involved in AIGC, with its self-developed "Xingyi" large model already enhancing multiple projects, and it has invested in an AI-driven 3D male-oriented romantic companion product "EVE," which has garnered over 1 million views on Bilibili and is expected to pioneer the male-oriented romantic companion market [4] Financial Forecasts - The company's revenue is expected to grow from RMB 4 295 billion in 2023 to RMB 7 055 billion in 2026, with a CAGR of 17 13% [5] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to increase from RMB 1 462 billion in 2023 to RMB 2 236 billion in 2026, with a CAGR of 16 44% [5] - The company's ROE is forecasted to remain strong, ranging from 23 86% to 27 87% over the forecast period [5] - The P/E ratio is expected to decrease from 19 92x in 2023 to 13 03x in 2026, indicating potential undervaluation [5] Industry and Market Performance - The company's market capitalization stands at RMB 29 123 56 billion, with a circulating market capitalization of RMB 25 899 91 billion [3] - The stock price closed at RMB 13 53 on December 2, 2024, with a 52-week range of RMB 8 33 to RMB 14 55 [3] - The company's asset-liability ratio is 19 41%, and its net asset per share is RMB 2 81 [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (首次覆盖) [2][10] Core Views - The company is experiencing sustained high growth overseas, driven by its IP strategy and "Guzi Economy" which enhances its influence [2] - In Q3 2024, the company achieved revenue of 4.523 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.3%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 642 million yuan, up 4.8% year-on-year [2] - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported revenue of 12.281 billion yuan, a 22.8% year-on-year increase, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.812 billion yuan, a 12.0% increase year-on-year [2] Financial Performance - The company has a total market capitalization of approximately 47.98 billion HKD and a closing price of 38.70 HKD as of November 29, 2024 [4] - The company plans to add 900-1100 new stores in 2024, with a total of 7186 stores as of Q3 2024, reflecting a net increase of 1071 stores year-on-year [5] - The overall gross margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 44.1%, an increase of 3.7 percentage points year-on-year [6] Store Expansion and Strategy - The company has expanded its store network significantly, with 4250 stores in mainland China and 2936 stores overseas as of Q3 2024 [5] - The IP strategy has led to collaborations with over 150 IPs globally, enhancing product differentiation and customer engagement [7] - The company announced a cash dividend of 620 million yuan, representing about 50% of its adjusted net profit for H1 2024, along with a share buyback plan of up to 2 billion HKD [7] Earnings Forecast - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 17.18 billion yuan, 20.76 billion yuan, and 23.83 billion yuan respectively, with adjusted net profits of 2.828 billion yuan, 3.531 billion yuan, and 4.220 billion yuan [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the construction decoration industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - Focus on regional infrastructure and international engineering companies, particularly in key areas such as Xinjiang, Tibet, Northeast China, and Guangxi, which are crucial for the Belt and Road Initiative. These regions are expected to benefit significantly from domestic infrastructure investments and international projects [1][16] - Emphasis on long-term investment opportunities in state-owned construction enterprises that are trading below book value, with a focus on companies like China State Construction, China Communications Construction, and China Railway Construction, which have strong market positions and high dividend yields [2][18] - The low-altitude economy is gaining traction, with design firms expected to be the first beneficiaries as policies supporting this sector are implemented [3][16] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Insights - Key areas for investment include regional infrastructure companies and international engineering firms, particularly those with significant overseas business [1][16] - The low-altitude economy is being prioritized, with design companies positioned to benefit from new policies [3][16] 2. Industry News Summary - The issuance of special bonds reached 9230.98 billion yuan this week, with a cumulative issuance of 67015.40 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 14.66% [28] - The issuance of municipal investment bonds was 991.57 billion yuan this week, with a cumulative net financing amount of -3844.75 billion yuan, indicating a year-on-year decrease of 140.59% [28] 3. Company Dynamics Summary - Several companies reported significant contract wins, with a total bid amount of approximately 7.45 billion yuan and a total signing amount of about 8.73 billion yuan [34] - China Power Construction announced new contracts totaling 9489.71 billion yuan from January to October 2024, marking a year-on-year increase of 9.38% [34] 4. Weekly Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.81%, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.66%, and the ChiNext Index grew by 2.33%. The construction decoration index rose by 0.81% during the same period [4][45] - Among individual stocks, notable gainers included Rishang Group (+37.85%) and Jiankang Institute (+24.78%) [4][45]

证券研究报告 海外 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2024 年 12 月 02 日 证券分析师 海外 AI：本周全球最大的铀矿商 Kazatomprom 发布 2024 年三季度业绩，业绩符合预期，单季度公司天 然铀同比量价齐升，中国贡献 KAP 近一半收入。3Q24 年公司实现 437733KZTm 营业收入，同比增长 78%， 环比增长 1.5%，实现毛利 188275KZTm，同比增长 101.1%，环比增长 20.2%，毛利率为 43%，环比增 长 6.7pct。3Q24 年公司天然铀销量（权益销量）为 3133 tU，同比增长 23.7%，环比下降 28.7%；产量 （权益产量）为 3142 tU，同比增长 16.8%，环比增长 3.5%。分销售区域来看，1~3Q24 年中国区域占 比为 47.5%，较去年同期增长 7.9pct，1~3Q24 年美国区域占比为 8.7%，较去年同期下降 5.5pct。关于 2024 年全年指引，本季度公司上调全年资本开支及总维持现金成本。公司全年资本开支指引由 250~270KZTb 上调至 285~305KZTb，主要由于新设施建设时间表的变化，部分采矿 ...