Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance [2][5]. Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from the recovery of the offshore wind market and the increasing value of submarine cables due to greater offshore distances. The projected net profits for 2024-2026 are 1.27 billion, 1.76 billion, and 2.19 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 26.6%, 39.2%, and 24.2% [2][5]. - The company has a strong order backlog, with total orders amounting to 9.236 billion yuan, which supports future performance. The company has recently won several significant contracts in the offshore wind sector, indicating its competitive position [6][7]. Summary by Sections Financial Forecasts - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from 7.31 billion yuan in 2023 to 11.88 billion yuan in 2026, with corresponding growth rates of 4.3%, 22.89%, 14.00%, and 16.01% [5][10]. - The net profit is expected to increase from 1 billion yuan in 2023 to 2.188 billion yuan in 2026, with growth rates of 18.72%, 26.56%, 39.20%, and 24.20% [5][10]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 1.45 yuan in 2023 to 3.18 yuan in 2026 [5][10]. Market Performance - The company reported a revenue of 6.699 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 25.22%. The net profit for the same period was 932 million yuan, up 13.41% year-on-year [6][7]. - The company’s gross margin for the first three quarters was 22.17%, a decrease of 4.06 percentage points compared to the previous year, attributed to the rapid growth in land cable revenue [7]. Order Backlog and Project Wins - As of October 18, the company had an order backlog of 9.236 billion yuan, including 2.949 billion yuan for submarine cables and 1.397 billion yuan for marine engineering [6][7]. - Recent project wins include significant contracts for ±500kV submarine cables, showcasing the company's technical capabilities and market leadership [7].

证券研究报告 公用事业 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2024 年 12 月 01 日 查浩 SAC：S1350524060004 zhahao@huayuanstock.com 刘晓宁 SAC：S1350523120003 liuxiaoning@huayuanstock.com 邹佩轩 SAC：S1350524070004 zoupeixuan01@huayuanstock.com 戴映炘 SAC：S1350524080002 daiyingxin@huayuanstock.com 1.公用事业：中电联《全国统一电力市场发展规划蓝皮书》发布，措辞高度强调市场化。 证券分析师 在国家能源局统筹组织下，中国电力企业联合会联合多家单位共同研究编制的《全国统一 电力市场发展规划蓝皮书》（以下简称《蓝皮书》11 月 29 日在北京发布。《蓝皮书》提 出"三步走"战略：第一步，到 2025 年初步建成全国统一电力市场，实现跨省跨区市场与 省内市场有序衔接；第二步，到 2029 年全面建成全国统一电力市场，实现新能源在市场中 的全面参与；第三步，到 2035 年完善提升，支持新能源大规模接入，形成市场、价格和 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the industry [2]. Core Insights - The Huawei Mate brand event showcased multiple AI-enabled devices, highlighting the rapid development of AI smartphones, which are projected to account for 16% of global smartphone shipments in 2024 and increase to 54% by 2028, driven by consumer demand for enhanced AI features [1][28]. - The AI smartphone market is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 63% from 2023 to 2028 [28]. - The report identifies seven companies on the Beijing Stock Exchange that are part of the NearLink and HarmonyOS ecosystem, indicating a growing interest in AI and smart technology [1][47]. Summary by Sections Huawei Mate Brand Event - The Huawei Mate70 series was launched with nine AI features, and the Mate X6 was introduced as the first smartphone supporting tri-network satellite communication [1][17]. - The event emphasized the importance of AI in smartphones, with features like AI motion tracking and AI noise cancellation [1][19]. Market Performance - The overall performance of technology growth stocks on the Beijing Stock Exchange showed a median price change of +0.34% from November 25 to November 29, 2024, with 73 companies experiencing an increase [2][50]. - Notable gainers included Shengye Electric (+405.92%) and Zhejiang Dano (+69.57%) [2][50]. Industry Valuation - The median price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for the electronic devices industry increased by 3% to 53.7X, with a total market capitalization rising from 1187.52 billion to 1212.82 billion [3][55]. - The report notes a decrease in the number of companies in the 50-100X P/E range, indicating a shift in valuation dynamics [3][54]. Strategic Partnerships - Keda Automation signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Ganfeng Lithium to explore opportunities in the new energy and energy storage markets [4].

Investment Rating - Investment rating for the transportation industry is "Positive" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The shipping industry is experiencing a tight supply due to limited new orders for oil tankers and an aging fleet, while demand for oil transportation is expected to benefit from increased non-OPEC production, leading to sustained growth in tanker market conditions over the next three years [10] - The dry bulk shipping sector is facing weak supply and demand, but environmental regulations are pushing the retirement of older vessels, which may catalyze a market recovery [10] - The green renewal cycle for shipping is just beginning, with shipping market conditions and the pace of green upgrades being the core drivers of demand [10] - The construction of new vessels is under pressure, with delivery times extending to 2027/28, which is a key driver for rising ship prices [10] - In the express delivery sector, demand remains resilient, and prices are at historical low levels, with expectations for price increases as the industry enters a peak season [11] - The logistics sector is showing positive trends, with competition easing and a cyclical recovery expected [14] - The aviation sector is anticipated to see further demand growth, supported by improving competition dynamics and supply-demand fundamentals [14] Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - From November 25 to November 29, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.81%, while the transportation index increased by 1.23% [26] - The logistics sector outperformed with a 4.10% increase, while the shipping sector saw a decline of 1.55% [26] 2. Sub-industry Data Tracking 2.1 Express Logistics - In October 2024, the total business volume of express delivery companies reached 16.31 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 35.3% [31] - Business revenue for the same period was 125.79 billion yuan, up 14.5% year-on-year [31] 2.2 Road and Rail - In October 2024, road passenger volume was 1.013 billion people, a year-on-year increase of 141.76%, while freight volume was 3.703 billion tons, up 4.25% [56] - Rail passenger volume reached 373 million people, a year-on-year increase of 5.97%, with freight volume at 455 million tons, up 4.31% [56] 2.3 Aviation - In October 2024, civil aviation transported approximately 64.09 million passengers, a year-on-year increase of 26.7%, and cargo/mail volume reached 80.90 thousand tons, up 8.8% [67] - The overall passenger load factor for major airlines was 84.38%, an increase from the previous month [70] 2.4 Shipping - The BDTI index for crude oil transportation was 892 points, down 1.76% week-on-week, while the BCTI index for refined oil transportation increased by 5.74% to 663 points [83]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals sector is "Positive" (maintained) [3] Core Views - The precious metals sector is experiencing price fluctuations due to geopolitical tensions and resilient U.S. labor market conditions, with gold prices entering a volatile phase. Recent data shows a decline in gold prices by 1.63% in London spot markets and 1.45% on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, while silver prices also fell by 1.78% and 1.37% respectively. The report suggests that geopolitical conflicts and inflation expectations driven by U.S. monetary policy will influence gold prices in the short term, while long-term prospects remain bullish due to a backdrop of monetary and fiscal easing in the U.S. [1][41] - In the copper sector, prices are under pressure due to seasonal demand weakness, with London copper prices rising by 0.45% and Shanghai copper prices by 0.09%. The report highlights a significant reduction in copper inventories, with Shanghai copper stocks down by 9.53% and London stocks down by 0.56%. The long-term outlook for copper prices is positive due to supply constraints [3][62]. - The aluminum sector is facing downward pressure on prices, with London aluminum prices down by 1.09% and Shanghai prices down by 1.05%. The report notes a significant drop in aluminum processing profits, which have turned negative, and emphasizes the need to monitor supply disruptions in bauxite and alumina [4][74]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The report discusses the geopolitical landscape, including a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah, and its potential impact on market stability. It also highlights recent U.S. economic data, including a slight decrease in initial jobless claims and stable core PCE inflation rates [26][27]. 2. Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices have seen declines, with specific figures indicating a 1.63% drop in London spot gold and a 1.78% drop in London spot silver. The report suggests that geopolitical tensions and U.S. economic conditions will continue to influence these prices [1][41]. 3. Industrial Metals 3.1 Copper - Copper prices are experiencing slight increases, with London copper up by 0.45% and Shanghai copper up by 0.09%. Inventory levels are decreasing significantly, indicating a tightening supply situation [3][62]. 3.2 Aluminum - The aluminum sector is under pressure, with prices declining and processing profits turning negative. The report notes a rise in alumina prices and emphasizes the importance of monitoring supply chain disruptions [4][74]. 4. Minor Metals - The report tracks minor metal prices, indicating a general decline across various categories, with specific recommendations for companies involved in antimony, tungsten, and indium [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the pharmaceutical industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The results of the national negotiation for innovative drugs in 2024 are positive, highlighting the trend of the innovative drug industry. The new medical insurance directory includes 91 new drugs, with a success rate of 76% and an average price reduction of 63% [2][31][35] - The report emphasizes the importance of innovation, international expansion, and aging population as key themes for investment in the pharmaceutical sector, suggesting a focus on undervalued recovery opportunities [3][67] Summary by Sections National Negotiation Results - The 2024 medical insurance directory adjustment has been released, adding 91 new drugs, with 89 included through negotiation or bidding, and 43 drugs removed. The success rate for negotiations was 76%, with an average price reduction of 63% [2][31] - The directory now includes a total of 3,159 drugs, with a significant number of new innovative drugs benefiting from the negotiations, particularly those launched within the last five years [31][35] Industry Perspective - The pharmaceutical index has shown a decline of 9.29% year-to-date, but recent signals indicate a marginal improvement in the industry. The report suggests that the commercial health insurance sector is expected to accelerate, enhancing payment capabilities [3][67] - The report recommends focusing on innovative drugs, international expansion, and sectors benefiting from an aging population, with specific companies highlighted for potential investment [3][67] Investment Recommendations - Suggested stocks include innovative drug companies such as 恒瑞医药 (Hengrui Medicine), 和黄医药 (Hutchison China MediTech), and 康方生物 (Kangfang Biotech), as well as companies involved in international expansion and domestic substitution [3][67] - The investment portfolio for December includes 九典制药 (Jiudian Pharmaceutical), 昆药集团 (Kunming Pharmaceutical), and others, indicating a strategic focus on recovery and growth in the pharmaceutical sector [3][69]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - Lithium carbonate prices are fluctuating, with a recent decrease of 1.14% to 78,200 CNY/ton, while lithium hydroxide prices increased by 0.56% to 68,280 CNY/ton. Supply has been stable, but demand is relatively low, leading to a long-term oversupply situation [2][28] - Cobalt prices remain stable overseas at 11.00 USD/pound, while domestic cobalt prices have decreased to 177,000 CNY/ton. The supply is adequate, but demand is low, maintaining a de-stocking state [1][2] - The rare earth permanent magnet market shows mixed trends, with praseodymium and neodymium oxide prices increasing by 0.85% to 413,500 CNY/ton, while dysprosium and terbium oxide prices have decreased [2][66] Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance - The top three performing segments this week are copper alloys (1.72%), powder materials (1.52%), and soft magnetic materials (1.30%). The bottom three are permanent magnets (-4.36%), rare earths (-2.36%), and lithium (-1.78%) [19][20] 2. Energy Metals - Lithium prices: - Spodumene: 815 USD/ton, up 1.12% - Lithium mica: 1,650 CNY/ton, up 0.92% - Lithium carbonate: 78,200 CNY/ton, down 1.14% - Lithium hydroxide: 68,280 CNY/ton, up 0.56% [26][28] - Cobalt prices: - MB cobalt: 11.00 USD/pound, stable - Metal cobalt: 177,000 CNY/ton, down 2.75% - Cobalt sulfate: 27,000 CNY/ton, down 0.74% [26][44] - Rare earth prices: - Light rare earth ore: 33,500 CNY/ton, up 0.90% - Medium and heavy rare earth ore: 176,500 CNY/ton, down 0.56% [66] 3. New Materials - In the power new materials sector: - Phosphate iron: 10,400 CNY/ton, stable - Lithium iron phosphate: 34,200 CNY/ton, stable - Precursor 622: 68,000 CNY/ton, down 1.4% [85][86] - In the photovoltaic new materials sector: - Average processing fee for welding tape (0.3mm): 4.15 CNY/kg, down 2.35% - Average price of 421 metal silicon powder: 13,250 CNY/ton, stable [91][92]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [5][9]. Core Viewpoints - Tongling Nonferrous Metals has developed a comprehensive integrated industrial chain over nearly 30 years, encompassing mining, smelting, processing, and comprehensive operations, which enhances its risk resistance [25][30]. - The company has seen steady improvement in profitability due to rising copper prices, with a significant increase in revenue and net profit since 2021, particularly following the consolidation of the Mirador copper mine [30][34]. - The Mirador project is expected to significantly boost performance, with the second phase projected to be operational by June 2025, potentially generating a net profit of 2.8 billion yuan annually [5][70]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group, listed in 1996, is a leading integrated copper producer in China, with a complete industrial chain and strong capital structure [25][30]. - The company operates six mines in China, with total copper reserves of 1.78 million tons, gold reserves of 95 tons, and silver reserves of 1,090 tons [51][58]. 2. Smelting and Deep Processing - The current copper smelting capacity is 1.7 million tons, with plans to increase to 2.2 million tons by 2025 [41][42]. - The profitability of smelting is driven by processing fees, by-products like sulfuric acid, and improved recovery rates, with an average gross profit of 2,200 yuan per ton from 2014 to 2023 [43][46]. 3. Mirador Project - The Mirador copper mine, acquired in August 2023, has a resource of 7.08 million tons of copper and is expected to produce approximately 200,000 tons of copper annually after the second phase is completed [5][58]. - The first phase of the Mirador project achieved production capacity in 2021, with actual output exceeding design capacity by over 30% in 2022 [62][65]. 4. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The forecasted net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 3.432 billion, 3.676 billion, and 5.357 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 12.30X, 11.49X, and 7.88X [6][9]. - The report anticipates higher growth potential due to the upcoming expansion of the Mirador project [9][70].

Market Performance - The North Exchange 50 Index increased by 1.25% in November, trailing behind the Sci-Tech 50 (+3.91%), Growth Enterprise Board (+2.08%), and Shanghai Composite Index (+1.42%) [2] - The North Exchange 50 Index has risen by 18.46% from January to November 2024, ranking second among major indices, only behind the Growth Enterprise 50 Index (+25.56%) [15] - The average daily trading volume in November reached 397 billion CNY, up from 347 billion CNY in October, while the average daily trading volume decreased from 21.85 billion shares to 20.50 billion shares [26] Valuation Metrics - As of November 29, 2024, the overall price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for North Exchange A-shares was 43X, while the North Exchange 50 Index had a P/E ratio of 55X [33] - The P/E ratio for North Exchange A-shares increased from 42.85X to 43.30X during the week of November 25 to November 29, 2024 [62] IPO Activity - In November, three companies were listed on the North Exchange, raising a total of 7.53 million CNY, which is an increase compared to October [39] - The average first-day gain for new stocks in November was over 350%, continuing the high performance from October [39] Mergers and Acquisitions - Wuxin Tunnel Equipment plans to acquire 100% equity of Wuxin Heavy Industry and Xiongzhong Technology, enhancing its capabilities in high-end logistics equipment manufacturing [57] - The acquisition is expected to significantly boost Wuxin Tunnel Equipment's performance and market competitiveness, supporting its goal of achieving a revenue target of 10 billion CNY [57]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the card industry [2]. Core Insights - The Chinese card market has a solid consumer base and is entering a rapid growth phase, with significant potential for expansion similar to the mature markets in the US and Japan [4][3]. - The US card market has evolved from a simple collectible to a financial and investment tool, creating a comprehensive ecosystem that includes grading, insurance, auction, and trading [2]. - The Japanese card market has experienced two major booms, driven by anime culture and an expanding adult demographic with higher purchasing power, leading to a market size of approximately 132 billion RMB in 2023 [3]. Summary by Sections 1. Card Types: Game and Collectible Attributes - Trading Card Games (TCG) and Collectible Cards (CCG) differ in function and market positioning, with TCG focusing on gameplay and strategy, while CCG emphasizes artistic and collectible value [38][40]. 1.1. TCG: Large Market Size and Rapid Growth - The TCG market is characterized by its integration of collection, exchange, strategy, and combat elements, with notable examples including "Magic: The Gathering" and "Pokémon" [43]. - The TCG market in Japan reached 277.43 billion JPY (approximately 132 billion RMB) in 2023, with a compound annual growth rate of 21.18% from 2017 to 2023 [50]. 1.2. CCG: Active Trading and Supporting Services - CCGs are primarily collected as art or memorabilia, often themed around historical events or famous personalities, and their value is derived from design, rarity, and cultural significance [53]. 2. US Card Market Evolution: Financialization and Investment - The US card market, centered around sports culture, has transformed from promotional items to investment assets, with a complete industry chain encompassing production, grading, and trading [62]. - The initial forms of cards, such as tobacco and trade cards, were marketing tools that evolved into collectibles, particularly with the rise of baseball cards in the late 19th century [63][64]. 3. Japanese Card Market Development - The Japanese card industry has seen significant growth influenced by anime culture and an expanding adult consumer base, with a market size of 277.4 billion JPY in 2023, reflecting an 18% year-on-year increase [3]. 4. Chinese Card Market: Growth Potential - The Pokémon card game has significantly influenced the development of the Chinese card industry, with a notable increase in transaction volume and buyer engagement in 2023 [4]. - The report anticipates that the Chinese card market could exceed 30 billion RMB in the long term, driven by a strong consumer base and cultural acceptance [4]. 5. Related Companies in the Card Industry - Companies such as Yaoji Technology, Pop Mart, Aofei Entertainment, and others are highlighted as key players in the card industry, with a focus on IP development and market expansion [4].