Fixed Income - The Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cut in December remains uncertain, with a 71% probability of a 25 basis point cut and a 29% chance of maintaining the current rate [2][7] - In October, broad funds significantly increased their holdings of interbank certificates of deposit, with a total bond custody scale rising by 1.31 trillion yuan to 176.8 trillion yuan [7] - The bond market is currently viewed positively, with expectations of a downward trend in bond yields [9] REITs - Recent performance of REITs has shown differentiation, with stable cash flow assets like consumer and rental housing outperforming others [10][11] - The average first-day increase for newly listed REITs in 2025 is 24.76%, significantly higher than previous years, but the expectation for single new issuance returns has decreased due to high subscription enthusiasm [13][14] - New data center REITs have performed well recently, with notable increases in their stock prices [14] Credit Analysis - Credit spreads have shown slight fluctuations, with most industry spreads remaining stable within 5 basis points [15][16] - The issuance rates for AA city investment bonds and industrial bonds have decreased significantly, falling within the range of 2.6% to 2.8% [16][18] - Investors are advised to pay attention to 3-5 year credit bonds and perpetual bonds due to their potential investment opportunities [18] Metals and New Materials - Copper prices are experiencing high volatility due to uncertainties surrounding the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, with a recent drop in prices [20][21] - Lithium prices have entered a new cycle of growth, with a significant increase in demand and a reduction in inventory levels [23] - Cobalt prices are expected to continue rising due to a tight supply situation, despite recent changes in export regulations from the Democratic Republic of the Congo [24] Technology and Data Centers - Over 50% of data center projects are expected to adopt liquid cooling technology by 2025, driven by increasing demand in sectors like internet and finance [26][27] - The Chinese liquid cooling server market is projected to exceed 20 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 67% [27] - A total of 11 companies in the liquid cooling server supply chain have been identified, indicating a growing industry focus [27] Media and AI - Google's release of Gemini 3 marks a significant advancement in AI capabilities, integrating multi-modal understanding and enhancing user interaction [32][33] - Alibaba's AI application "Qianwen APP" quickly rose to the top of the App Store rankings, highlighting the competitive landscape in AI applications [33] - The AI narrative is evolving, with a focus on applications in education, e-commerce, and content production, suggesting a shift in industry dynamics [35]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the media industry [1] Core Insights - The release of Google's Gemini 3 marks a significant advancement in AI capabilities, integrating multimodal understanding and enhancing user interaction [4][22] - Alibaba's AI application "Qianwen APP" quickly rose to the third position in the Apple App Store's free app rankings shortly after its public launch [5][24] - The AI-driven content production model is evolving, particularly in the AI comic industry, which is expected to replace traditional production methods and reduce costs [4][9] - The film market is driven by supply, with strong performances from quality imported films expected to boost box office revenues [7] - The gaming sector shows robust performance, with major titles continuing to update content and maintain user engagement [8] Summary by Sections AI Applications - Google's Gemini 3 offers advanced reasoning capabilities and integrates various media types for enhanced user experiences [4] - The "Qianwen APP" by Alibaba emphasizes dual capabilities of chatting and task management, aiming to integrate various services within the Alibaba ecosystem [5][6] Industry Trends - The AI comic industry is set to transform content production, with significant efficiency gains and cost reductions anticipated [4] - The integration of AI in various sectors such as education, e-commerce, and gaming is expected to accelerate, with major companies investing heavily in these areas [5] Film and Television - The film market is expected to see steady growth driven by quality imports, while the television sector is poised for new content creation opportunities under recent regulatory guidance [7] - Recommendations include focusing on long-video platforms and production companies that align with new content strategies [7] Gaming - The gaming industry is witnessing a strong performance with major titles maintaining user engagement through frequent updates and new releases [8] - There are investment opportunities in companies exploring AI integration within gaming experiences [8] Market Performance - The media sector showed resilience despite broader market declines, with specific sub-sectors like advertising and digital media performing well [14][15] - Recent financial reports from major companies indicate positive growth trends, particularly in the gaming and e-commerce sectors [24][25][26]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, credit bond yields continued to fluctuate slightly at a low level, and most credit spreads in different industries reached historical lows since early 2024. The short - term urban investment bond spreads within 3 years have been compressed to the 3% quantile or lower since early 2024, while the long - term spreads over 5 years still have some room to decline. The credit spreads of 3 - 5Y AA+ industrial bonds are currently in the range of 65 - 70BP, and the credit spreads of 3 - 5Y AA+ secondary perpetual bonds are in the range of 50 - 70BP, with some potential. Considering the support from the opening of amortized open - end bond funds in the next six months for 3 - 5Y credit bonds, investors are advised to pay appropriate attention to investment opportunities in 3 - 5Y general credit bonds and secondary perpetual bonds [5][57]. Summary by Directory 1. This Week's Credit Hot Events - **Low - price trading of Jiutai Rural Commercial Bank's secondary capital bonds**: Since the end of October, there have been multiple secondary transactions of Jiutai Rural Commercial Bank's outstanding secondary capital bond "21 Jiutai Rural Secondary" significantly below the valuation, with a transaction price of around 50 yuan. The bank has not released its 2024 annual report, 2025 quarterly reports, and its operation has been under pressure in recent years, with net profit continuously declining and a large loss in 2024, and the capital adequacy ratio approaching the warning line, which has raised market concerns about non - redemption or write - down [10]. - **Shanghai Stock Exchange's written warnings to 3 bond issuers**: Zhenjiang Urban Construction Industry Group, Guangning County Huiye Asset Operation Co., Ltd., and Hongda Xingye Group Co., Ltd. were warned for issues such as non - standard management of special accounts for raised funds, non - compliance with the use of raised funds as stipulated in the prospectus, and inaccurate and untimely information disclosure [13]. - **PBC Beijing Branch's support for science - and - technology innovation enterprises to raise funds through the bond market**: On November 18, 12 departments including the PBC Beijing Branch issued an implementation plan to support eligible enterprises in service consumption fields such as culture, tourism, and education to issue bonds, encourage science - and - technology innovation enterprises to raise funds through the bond market, and support consumer finance companies, auto finance companies, and financial leasing companies to issue financial bonds [14]. 2. Primary Market 2.1 Net Financing Scale - **Overall situation**: This week, the net financing of traditional credit bonds increased compared with last week, while the net financing of asset - backed securities decreased by 18.4 billion yuan. The net financing of urban investment bonds was 5.6 billion yuan, an increase of 3.11 billion yuan; the net financing of industrial bonds was 13.46 billion yuan, an increase of 6.31 billion yuan; and the net financing of financial bonds was 13.58 billion yuan, an increase of 7.65 billion yuan [3][16]. - **Issuance and redemption quantity**: The issuance quantity of urban investment bonds increased by 32, and the redemption quantity decreased by 22; the issuance quantity of industrial bonds increased by 65, and the redemption quantity increased by 19; the issuance quantity of financial bonds increased by 13, and the redemption quantity decreased by 13 [20]. 2.2 Issuance Cost - The issuance interest rates of AA urban investment bonds and industrial bonds decreased significantly this week, falling within the range of 2.6 - 2.8%. The issuance interest rates of other bonds with different ratings were in the range of 1.9 - 2.4%. Specifically, the average issuance interest rates of AA urban investment bonds and industrial bonds decreased by 24BP and 28BP respectively compared with last week. The average issuance interest rates of AA+ and AAA urban investment bonds increased slightly, and the average issuance interest rate of AAA financial bonds increased by 7BP. The average issuance interest rates of other credit bonds with different ratings decreased by 1 - 4BP [3][24]. 3. Secondary Market 3.1 Transaction Situation - **Trading volume**: The trading volume of credit bonds increased by 34.1 billion yuan compared with last week. The trading volume of urban investment bonds was 234.5 billion yuan, an increase of 14.9 billion yuan; the trading volume of industrial bonds was 381.1 billion yuan, an increase of 46.7 billion yuan; the trading volume of financial bonds was 470.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 27.5 billion yuan; the trading volume of asset - backed securities was 18.7 billion yuan, unchanged from last week [3]. - **Turnover rate**: The turnover rates of credit bonds showed mixed trends compared with last week. The turnover rate of urban investment bonds was 1.51%, an increase of 0.09 percentage points; the turnover rate of industrial bonds was 2.02%, an increase of 0.24 percentage points; the turnover rate of financial bonds was 3.07%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points; the turnover rate of asset - backed securities was 0.52%, unchanged from last week [26]. 3.2 Yields - The yields of credit bonds with different ratings and maturities fluctuated slightly this week, with a fluctuation range of no more than 3BP. For example, the yields of AA, AAA -, and AAA+ credit bonds within 1 year fluctuated by no more than 1BP; the yields of 5Y AA and AAA+ credit bonds decreased by less than 1BP, and the yield of 5Y AAA - credit bonds increased by 3BP; the yields of AA, AAA -, and AAA+ credit bonds over 10 years increased by 1BP [29]. 3.3 Credit Spreads - **Overall situation**: Except for the relatively large fluctuations in the credit spreads of AA+ non - bank finance, leisure services, and textile and clothing industries compared with last week, the fluctuations of credit spreads in other industries and ratings were within 5BP. The credit spreads of AA+ pharmaceutical biology, textile and clothing, and food and beverage industries compressed by 4BP, 15BP, and 4BP respectively, while the credit spreads of AA+ non - bank finance and leisure services industries widened by 6BP [3]. - **Urban investment bonds**: The long - term credit spreads of urban investment bonds over 10 years compressed significantly this week, while the spreads of other maturities fluctuated by no more than 1BP. In terms of regions, the credit spread of AA urban investment bonds in Yunnan compressed by 11BP, and the fluctuations of credit spreads of urban investment bonds in other regions and ratings were within 3BP [42][44]. - **Industrial bonds**: The overall change in industrial credit spreads this week was not significant, and the change range of spreads with different maturities and ratings was within 5BP [48]. - **Bank capital bonds**: The credit spread of 5Y AA+ bank secondary capital bonds compressed by 5BP this week, and the fluctuations of credit spreads of bank secondary perpetual bonds with other maturities and ratings were within 2BP [51]. 4. This Week's Bond Market Public Opinions - There were 7 bond implicit ratings downgraded for 5 issuers this week. China Yintai Investment Co., Ltd. had 3 bond implicit ratings downgraded, and the other issuers included China Water Resources and Hydropower First Engineering Bureau Co., Ltd., PowerChina Commercial Factoring Co., Ltd., Liaoning Kangping County Zhonghe Rural Credit Micro - loan Co., Ltd., and Jilin Jiutai Rural Commercial Bank Co., Ltd. [4][54]. 5. Investment Recommendations - This week, the central bank achieved a net investment of 434 billion yuan through open - market operations. As of Friday's close, DR001 closed at 1.30%, down from 1.5% at the beginning of the week. Overall, except for the relatively large fluctuations in the credit spreads of AA+ non - bank finance, leisure services, and textile and clothing industries, the fluctuations of credit spreads in other industries and ratings were within 5BP. Considering the current situation of credit spreads and the support from the opening of amortized open - end bond funds in the next six months, investors are advised to pay appropriate attention to investment opportunities in 3 - 5Y general credit bonds and secondary perpetual bonds [56][57].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the transportation industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The express delivery industry is experiencing resilient demand, with a "de-involution" trend driving up express prices, enhancing corporate profit elasticity, and creating favorable competition opportunities in the medium to long term [15] - The shipping market is expected to benefit from the OPEC+ production increase cycle and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, with a notable improvement in the oil transportation market's outlook for Q4 2025 [15] - The shipping market is anticipated to recover, supported by environmental regulations limiting the operation of older fleets and the upcoming production of the West Manganese iron ore by the end of 2025 [15] Summary by Sections Express Logistics - In October 2025, the express delivery industry achieved a business volume of 17.6 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 7.9%, with revenue reaching 131.67 billion yuan, up 4.7% year-on-year [4][24] - Major players like YTO, Shentong, and Yunda showed varied growth rates, with YTO's volume increasing by 12.78% and Shentong by 3.97%, while Yunda's volume decreased by 5.11% [4][30] - The industry is transitioning towards high-quality development, with significant improvements in single-ticket revenue due to price increases driven by the de-involution trend [4] Shipping and Ports - VLCC freight rates reached a new high of $136,843 per day, the highest since Q2 2020, driven by tight available capacity and stable inquiry rhythms [8] - The Capesize bulk carrier spot freight rates surpassed $30,000 per day, reflecting a 20% increase over the past week, supported by seasonal demand recovery and strong import demand from China [8] - The BDI index increased by 7.1% to 2225 points, indicating a robust recovery in the bulk shipping market [9] Aviation - In October 2025, civil aviation transported approximately 68 million passengers, a year-on-year increase of 5.8%, and cargo/mail transport reached 917,000 tons, up 13.3% [58] - The overall passenger load factor for major airlines was 86.88%, showing a slight increase from the previous month [62] Road and Rail - From November 10 to November 16, 2025, national freight logistics operated smoothly, with rail freight reaching 81.8 million tons, a 0.17% increase week-on-week [14] - In October 2025, road freight volume was 3.706 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.08% [64] Supply Chain Logistics - The logistics landscape is evolving, with companies like Shenzhen International expected to benefit from the transformation of logistics parks, providing performance elasticity [15] - The industry is witnessing a slowdown in competition, with companies like Debang and Aneng Logistics showing significant profit improvements due to strategic transformations [15]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The "troika" of consumption, investment, and net - exports supporting GDP is under increasing pressure in October, and short - term economic growth may face certain challenges. However, considering the good economic performance in the first three quarters of this year, it is not difficult to achieve the 5% economic growth target for the year 2025. In the next six months, policy rate cuts and the implementation of incremental tools may be the key support measures. Future supportive policies may be more inclined to stimulate consumption. The current bond market has prominent allocation value, and bond yields may fluctuate downward [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Consumption - In October, the growth rate of consumption continued to decline. The total retail sales of consumer goods in October was 4.6 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.9%, 0.1 percentage points lower than the previous month, and the growth rate has declined for five consecutive months. From January to October, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.3% year - on - year, 0.2 percentage points lower than the previous period [2]. - Service consumption showed continuous strength. In October, catering revenue increased by 3.8% year - on - year, 2.9 percentage points higher than September. Policies such as "Several Policy Measures to Expand Service Consumption" and the "15th Five - Year Plan Proposal" emphasized the expansion of service consumption [2]. - The year - on - year growth rate of most retail sales of categories related to national subsidies continued to slow down. In October, the year - on - year growth rate of retail sales of household appliances and audio - visual equipment above the designated size dropped significantly by 17.9 percentage points to - 14.6% [2]. 3.2 Investment - Fixed - asset investment has been weak for seven consecutive months, with negative year - on - year growth for two consecutive months and accelerating decline. From January to October, fixed - asset investment decreased by 1.7% year - on - year. Infrastructure investment, manufacturing investment, and real estate development investment reached their lowest values since 2022, with year - on - year decreases of - 0.1%, + 2.7%, and - 14.7% respectively [2]. - The decline in real estate development investment has been expanding for eight consecutive months, reaching the second - lowest value since 1995, indicating that the traditional "real estate + infrastructure" driven model is unsustainable [2]. 3.3 Foreign Trade - In the first 10 months of 2025, China's total goods trade imports and exports were 37.3 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.6%. In October, the total value of goods trade imports and exports was 3.7 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.1%. Exports were 2.17 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.8%, and imports were 1.53 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.4% [3]. - In October, the year - on - year exports of major industries (in US dollars) declined significantly compared with the previous month. Exports to the EU decreased significantly, with a year - on - year increase of 0.9% in October, a significant drop of 13.3 percentage points from the previous month [3]. 3.4 Industrial and Service Sectors - From January to October, the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 6.1% year - on - year. In October, it increased by 4.9% year - on - year. High - tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing maintained high growth rates, with year - on - year increases of 7.2% and 8.0% respectively in October [3]. - In October, the service production index increased by 4.6% year - on - year, 1.0 percentage points lower than the previous month [3]. 3.5 Economic Outlook and Bond Market - Economic downward pressure may increase. The "troika" supporting the economy is under pressure, and the conditions for further policy rate cuts may have been initially met [3]. - The current bond market has prominent allocation value, and bond yields may fluctuate downward. The report is bullish on the bond market in November, predicting that the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond will return to around 1.65% within the year [3].

Group 1: Construction Industry Overview - The construction industry is currently under pressure, with revenue and profit expected to improve in the fourth quarter of 2025 due to increased funding and project commencement [2][5] - In the first three quarters of 2025, the construction sector achieved revenue of 5.85 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 5.51%, and a net profit of 123.9 billion yuan, down 10.06% [6][8] - The overall gross margin for the construction sector in 2025 Q1-3 was 9.91%, with a net margin of 2.61%, reflecting a slight decline compared to the previous year [6][7] Group 2: Central Enterprises Performance - Nine major state-owned construction enterprises accounted for 83.45% of the sector's revenue and 83.99% of net profit in the first three quarters of 2025, indicating their dominant role in the industry [8] - Excluding state-owned enterprises, the sector's revenue decline deepened to -12.37%, while the net profit decline narrowed to -5.48%, highlighting the stabilizing effect of state-owned enterprises on revenue [8][9] - The new contracts signed by state-owned enterprises in 2025 Q1-3 totaled approximately 10.5 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 1.31% [8] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-dividend, low-valuation stocks in a context of loose liquidity and low interest rates, recommending companies like Jianghe Group and Sichuan Road & Bridge [9] - It also emphasizes the importance of companies that are clearly transitioning towards new energy, smart manufacturing, and digital construction, indicating a growth potential in these areas [9] Group 4: OSL Group Overview - OSL Group is a licensed digital asset trading and payment platform, recognized as the first major virtual asset trading platform in Hong Kong [12][13] - The company has developed a digital asset ecosystem comprising brokerage, payment, asset management, exchange, and institutional services, with significant revenue contributions from brokerage and payment services [13][14] - OSL is transitioning from a single trading platform to a comprehensive digital asset financial infrastructure provider, with advantages in payment services and a robust global compliance network [14][15] Group 5: Market Opportunities for OSL - The digital asset industry is expected to benefit from a shift in monetary policy, clearer global regulatory frameworks, and the entry of institutional funds, presenting growth opportunities for OSL [13][14] - The company anticipates significant revenue growth, with projected non-IFRS revenues of 467 million, 764 million, and 1.22 billion HKD for 2025-2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 89% [15]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is optimistic (maintained) [1] Core Insights - Precision Science is a leader in colorectal cancer early screening and is transitioning to a tumor screening platform. The company has developed the first commercially available mt-sDNA colorectal cancer screening product, Cologuard, in the U.S. The revenue primarily comes from screening business (centered around Cologuard) and precision tumor detection (centered around the Oncotype Dx series), achieving $2.05 billion in revenue for Q1-3 2025, a 16% year-on-year increase. Although the company has not yet achieved net profit, free cash flow (FCF) is consistently positive, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 14% expected to exceed 20% by 2027, indicating potential for accelerated profit realization [2][4]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Precision Science focuses on developing colorectal cancer early screening products, with Cologuard being the flagship product approved by the FDA in 2014. The company also expanded into precision tumor detection through the acquisition of Genomic Health in 2019. As of 2024, the revenue breakdown is 76% from screening and 24% from precision tumor detection [8][61]. Industry Situation - The colorectal cancer early screening industry is crucial for early detection, significantly reducing cancer risk. The U.S. Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) recommends regular screening for individuals aged 45-75, targeting over 100 million people. The screening rate for those aged 50 and above is expected to exceed 70%, while approximately 50 million individuals aged 45-85 have not undergone screening, indicating a substantial market opportunity [3][33][43]. Cologuard's Market Position - Cologuard has gained rapid adoption since its FDA approval, benefiting from insurance coverage and guideline recommendations. The product has undergone upgrades, with the latest version, Cologuard Plus, showing improved performance and a 16% price increase. The company invests over $100 million annually in advertising and has a sales team of over 1,400, enhancing connections with healthcare providers and patients [3][57][80]. Future Growth Potential - Precision Science's pipeline includes MRD and multi-cancer early screening products expected to launch in 2025, which are anticipated to contribute to long-term growth despite limited short-term revenue impact. The blood test product is expected to be approved by the FDA in 2026, further solidifying the company's leadership in colorectal cancer early screening [2][4][93]. Oncotype Dx Series - The Oncotype Dx series, which assesses cancer recurrence risk, has a 90% penetration rate in the U.S. and is expected to grow internationally. The series includes tests for breast and colon cancer, with significant revenue contributions from the breast recurrence score test [95][97].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an investment rating of "Buy" for OSL Group, marking its first coverage [5][10]. Core Insights - OSL Group is a licensed digital asset trading and payment platform, uniquely positioned as Hong Kong's only publicly listed virtual asset exchange focused on digital asset trading and payment services. The company has obtained multiple important licenses across over 10 jurisdictions, including Hong Kong, Japan, Australia, the EU (Italy), and Bermuda [5][6]. - The company is transitioning from a single trading platform to a comprehensive digital asset financial infrastructure provider, leveraging four key advantages: the rise of payment services, significant trading fee advantages, a global compliance network, and a triad of compliance, security, and liquidity [7][68]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - As of November 19, 2025, OSL Group's closing price is HKD 15.03, with a market capitalization of HKD 11,942.77 million. The stock has seen a one-year high of HKD 20.30 and a low of HKD 6.84 [3]. Business Overview - OSL Group has developed a digital asset ecosystem comprising brokerage, payment, asset management, exchange, and institutional services. The brokerage business contributes approximately half of the revenue, while the payment business, launched only two months prior, accounted for 29% of the revenue in the first half of 2025 [6][8]. Financial Projections - The report forecasts non-IFRS revenues for OSL Group to be HKD 4.67 billion, HKD 7.64 billion, and HKD 12.20 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 119%, 64%, and 60% [8][10]. Strategic Initiatives - OSL is expanding its payment services, with OSL Pay generating significant revenue shortly after its launch. The company is also pursuing acquisitions to enhance its service offerings and expand its operational capabilities [39][69]. Competitive Positioning - OSL Group's fee structure is competitive, with trading fees ranging from 0% to 0.05%, and no deposit fees, positioning it favorably against other major platforms [73]. Regulatory Environment - The report highlights a favorable regulatory landscape for digital assets, with significant developments in compliance frameworks across various jurisdictions, enhancing the stability and credibility of the digital asset market [61][62]. Growth Drivers - The anticipated easing of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve and the establishment of clear regulatory frameworks are expected to drive growth in the digital asset sector, benefiting OSL Group as it captures institutional interest and expands its market presence [58][66].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core Viewpoints - The issuance rhythm of local government bonds has shifted from being concentrated in the second and third quarters to a more balanced distribution throughout the year. Since 2019, especially after 2020, the issuance scale in the first and fourth quarters has significantly increased due to policies emphasizing "front - loaded efforts" and "balanced issuance" [2]. - The issuance scale of local government bonds is constrained by the issuance quota. The estimated early - batch quota for 2026 is about 3.12 trillion yuan, calculated based on the 2025 local debt new quota and the proportion of pre - allocated new quotas in previous years [2]. - The gap in local government debt quota scale between different regions has widened. Developed regions have more high - quality projects that can generate stable cash flows, enabling them to issue more special bonds, while less - developed regions lack such projects [2]. - The issuance of refinancing bonds has been significantly advanced, and the peak issuance of new bonds has shifted from the second quarter to the third quarter [2]. - The pricing logic of local bonds has changed from "seasonal supply - demand dominance" to "asset shortage and policy expectation drive". After the approval of the 6 - trillion debt replacement quota in 2024, the spread of general bonds generally narrowed, while that of special bonds widened [2][3]. - There is a structural differentiation in local bond spreads, and the risk premium of special bonds has gradually emerged [3]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Local Government Bond Issuance Rhythm - From 2015 - 2018, the issuance of local government bonds was highly concentrated in the second and third quarters. After 2019, especially after 2020, the issuance in the first and fourth quarters increased significantly [2]. - From 2022 - 2024, the proportion of refinancing bond issuance completed in the first quarter increased year - by - year, and the issuance peak of new bonds shifted from the second quarter to the third quarter [2]. 3.2 Local Government Bond Issuance Quota - The issuance scale of local government bonds is restricted by the issuance quota. The estimated early - batch quota for 2026 is about 3.12 trillion yuan, based on the 2025 new quota of 520 billion yuan and the 60% pre - allocation ratio in recent years [2]. - From 2016 - 2024, the special debt quota of Guangdong, Shandong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Henan increased significantly, and the general debt quota of Hunan, Guizhou, Sichuan, Inner Mongolia, and Xinjiang increased more. The gap in debt quota scale between different regions widened [2]. 3.3 Local Bond Pricing Logic - From 2022 - 2023, the pricing logic of the local bond market was "seasonal supply - demand dominance", with clear seasonal fluctuations in spreads. In 2024 Q4, it changed to "asset shortage and policy expectation drive", with the fourth - quarter spread not rising but falling and regional spreads converging [2][3]. - After the approval of the 6 - trillion debt replacement quota in 2024, the spread of general bonds generally narrowed, while that of special bonds widened. The spread of special bonds in economically developed provinces with large issuance scales increased less, while that in regions with high debt pressure increased significantly [3]. 3.4 Local Bond Spread Differentiation - From 2024 Q3 to 2025 Q1, the spread between general bonds and special bonds showed a structural change. In 2024 Q4, the spread of special bonds widened, and this trend continued in 2025 Q1 [3].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the pig price remains weak, and the logic of destocking may gradually strengthen. The price of pigs is currently at 11.85 yuan/kg, with the industry facing losses [3][18] - The agricultural policy is undergoing a profound transformation, focusing on protecting farmers' rights and activating enterprise innovation. The report anticipates that under the influence of capacity control policies, pig prices may stop falling and rebound earlier than expected [4][19] - The report highlights the importance of high-quality development in the industry, with a clear direction for capacity control policies. Companies that lead in cost and connect with farmers are expected to enjoy excess profits and valuation premiums [4][19] Summary by Sections 1. Swine Industry - The swine sector is experiencing fluctuations, with DeKang Agriculture leading the gains at +9% week-on-week. The number of breeding sows has decreased significantly, and futures prices are rising, but the stock market has not reacted [3][18] - The report emphasizes the need for solution-oriented enterprises as the industry policy shifts towards protecting farmers' rights and promoting innovation [4][19] 2. Poultry Industry - The poultry sector continues to face a "high capacity, weak consumption" contradiction, with the price of broiler chickens at 3.50 yuan/kg and chick prices at 3.60 yuan each. The report suggests that integrated enterprises may increase their market share due to losses forcing breeding farms to reduce capacity [5][19] 3. Feed Industry - The report recommends Haida Group due to the recovery of the domestic industry, improved management effects, and increased capacity utilization. The company is expected to achieve growth beyond expectations [6][20] 4. Pet Industry - The pet industry shows a strong concentration of leading brands, with the top five brands remaining stable. The report notes that the competition among leading brands is intensifying, leading to potential pressure on profit margins, but sales growth remains high [9][21] - The report predicts that the market concentration will increase, with the CR5 expected to reach nearly 40% in the next five years [11][23] 5. Agricultural Products - The USDA's November supply and demand report did not exceed expectations, leading to a significant drop in soybean prices. The report indicates that domestic soybean inventories are high, and the supply remains sufficient [13][25] 6. Market and Price Situation - The report notes that the agricultural index increased by 2.70% week-on-week, with agricultural product processing performing the best at +6.40% [26]